Danny Hillis: Back to the future (of 1994)

Traducător: anca tincu Corector: Aura Raducan

Because I usually take the role

Pentru ca imi asum de obicei rolul

of trying to explain to people

de a incerca sa explic oamenilor

how wonderful the new technologies

cat de extraordinare vor fi noile tehnologii

that are coming along are going to be,

care vor aparea

and I thought that, since I was among friends here,

si m-am gandit ca, fiind intre prieteni aici,

I would tell you what I really think

sa va spun ce cred cu adevarat

and try to look back and try to understand

si sa incerc sa privesc inapoi si sa inteleg

what is really going on here

ce se intampla de fapt aici

with these amazing jumps in technology

cu aceste salturi extraordinare in tehnologie

that seem so fast that we can barely keep on top of it.

care se deruleaza asa de repede incat abia mai putem tine pasul cu ele.

So I'm going to start out

Asa ca voi incepe

by showing just one very boring technology slide.

prin a arata o prezentare despre tehnologie.

And then, so if you can just turn on the slide that's on.

Si apoi, daca puteti da drumul prezentarii.

This is just a random slide

Aceasta prezentare este

that I picked out of my file.

una aleasa la intamplare.

What I want to show you is not so much the details of the slide,

Ceea ce vreau sa va arat nu sunt atat detaliile prezentarii,

but the general form of it.

ci forma ei generala.

This happens to be a slide of some analysis that we were doing

Aceasta prezentare se refera la o analiza facuta

about the power of RISC microprocessors

despre puterea microprocesoarelor RISC

versus the power of local area networks.

contra puterii retelelor locale.

And the interesting thing about it

Si ce este interesant la prezentare

is that this slide,

este ca aceasta,

like so many technology slides that we're used to,

ca multe altele de felul ei cu care suntem obisnuiti,

is a sort of a straight line

este o linie dreapta

on a semi-log curve.

intr-un grafic semilogaritmic.

In other words, every step here

Cu alte cuvinte, fiecare pas de aici

represents an order of magnitude

reprezinta o magnitudine

in performance scale.

pe scara performantei.

And this is a new thing

Si acesta este un lucru nou

that we talk about technology

sa vorbim despre tehnologie

on semi-log curves.

pe grafice semilogaritmice.

Something really weird is going on here.

`

And that's basically what I'm going to be talking about.

Si despre asta voi vorbi de fapt.

So, if you could bring up the lights.

Deci, daca puteti lumina sus.

If you could bring up the lights higher,

Daca puteti lumina mai sus,

because I'm just going to use a piece of paper here.

pentru ca voi folosi o bucata de hartie.

Now why do we draw technology curves

Acum de ce desenam grafice tehnologice

in semi-log curves?

in grafice semilogaritmice?

Well the answer is, if I drew it on a normal curve

Ei bine raspunsul este, daca as desena pe un grafic normal

where, let's say, this is years,

unde, sa spunem, acestia sunt anii,

this is time of some sort,

acesta este un fel de timp,

and this is whatever measure of the technology

si aceasta este masura tehnologiei

that I'm trying to graph,

pe care incerc sa o desenez,

the graphs look sort of silly.

diagramele par stupide.

They sort of go like this.

Arata cam asa.

And they don't tell us much.

Si nu ne spun prea multe.

Now if I graph, for instance,

Acum daca desenez, de exemplu,

some other technology, say transportation technology,

alte tehnologii, de exemplu tehnologia transportului,

on a semi-log curve,

pe un tabel semilogaritmic,

it would look very stupid, it would look like a flat line.

ar arata foarte stupid, ca o linie dreapta.

But when something like this happens,

Dar cand se intampla ceva de genul acesta,

things are qualitatively changing.

calitatea lucrurilor se imbunatateste.

So if transportation technology

Deci daca tehnologia transportului

was moving along as fast as microprocessor technology,

s-ar dezvolta la fel de repede ca cea a microprocesoarelor,

then the day after tomorrow,

atunci poimaine,

I would be able to get in a taxi cab

as putea sa ma urc intr-un taxi

and be in Tokyo in 30 seconds.

si sa ajung in Tokio in 30 de secunde.

It's not moving like that.

Nu se intampla asa.

And there's nothing precedented

Si nu exista precedent

in the history of technology development

in istoria dezvoltarii tehnologice

of this kind of self-feeding growth

a unei astfel de auto-crestere

where you go by orders of magnitude every few years.

unde vorbim de magnitudine la fiecare cativa ani.

Now the question that I'd like to ask is,

Acum intrebarea mea este,

if you look at these exponential curves,

daca te uiti la aceste grafice exponentiale

they don't go on forever.

nu continua la nesfarsit.

Things just can't possibly keep changing

Lucrurile nu pot fi intr-o continua schimbare

as fast as they are.

in ritmul alert in care o fac.

One of two things is going to happen.

Unul din doua lucruri se va intampla.

Either it's going to turn into a sort of classical S-curve like this,

Fie se va transforma intr-un grafic in forma de S ca acesta,

until something totally different comes along,

pana cand apare ceva cu totul diferit,

or maybe it's going to do this.

sau poate va face asta.

That's about all it can do.

Asta este cam tot ce poate face.

Now I'm an optimist,

Eu sunt un optimist,

so I sort of think it's probably going to do something like that.

deci cred ca va fi cam asa.

If so, that means that what we're in the middle of right now

Daca este asa, suntem in mijlocul

is a transition.

unei tranzitii.

We're sort of on this line

Suntem pe aceasta linie

in a transition from the way the world used to be

in tranzitia dintre cum era lumea

to some new way that the world is.

si noua ei forma.

And so what I'm trying to ask, what I've been asking myself,

Si ceea ce incerc sa intreb, ce m-am intrebat pe mine insumi,

is what's this new way that the world is?

este cum este aceasta noua lume?

What's that new state that the world is heading toward?

Care este acea stare noua catre care se indreapta lumea?

Because the transition seems very, very confusing

Pentru ca tranzitia pare foarte derutanta

when we're right in the middle of it.

cand suntem exact in mijlocul ei.

Now when I was a kid growing up,

Cand eram copil,

the future was kind of the year 2000,

viitorul era ca anul 2000,

and people used to talk about what would happen in the year 2000.

si oamenii vorbeau despre ce se va intampla in 2000.

Now here's a conference

Aceasta este o conferinta

in which people talk about the future,

in care oamenii vorbesc despre viitor,

and you notice that the future is still at about the year 2000.

si remarcati ca viitorul face referire tot la anul 2000.

It's about as far as we go out.

Cam atat de departe mergem.

So in other words, the future has kind of been shrinking

Cu alte cuvinte viitorul s-a cam micsorat

one year per year

an dupa an

for my whole lifetime.

pe parcursul intregii mele vieti.

Now I think that the reason

Cred ca motivul

is because we all feel

este ca simtim cu totii

that something's happening there.

ca se va intampla ceva acolo.

That transition is happening. We can all sense it.

Acea tranzitie se petrece. Cu totii o simtim.

And we know that it just doesn't make too much sense

Si stim ca nu are prea mult sens

to think out 30, 50 years

sa ne gandim peste 30, 50 de ani

because everything's going to be so different

pentru ca totul va fi asa de diferit

that a simple extrapolation of what we're doing

ca o simpla extrapolare a ceea ce facem

just doesn't make any sense at all.

nu are nici un sens.

So what I would like to talk about

Deci as dori sa vorbesc despre

is what that could be,

ce ar putea fi,

what that transition could be that we're going through.

ce ar putea fi acea tranzitie prin ceea ce trecem.

Now in order to do that

Pentru a putea face asta

I'm going to have to talk about a bunch of stuff

va trebui sa vorbesc despre multe lucruri

that really has nothing to do

care nu au de a face

with technology and computers.

cu tehnologia si computerele.

Because I think the only way to understand this

Deoarece cred ca singurul mod de a intelege asta

is to really step back

este sa faci un pas inapoi

and take a long time scale look at things.

si sa privesti lucrurile prin dimensiunea timpului.

So the time scale that I would like to look at this on

Deci scara temporala la care as dori sa privim

is the time scale of life on Earth.

este aceea a vietii pe pamant.

So I think this picture makes sense

Deci cred ca aceasta imagine are sens

if you look at it a few billion years at a time.

daca facem referire la ea odata la cateva miliarde de ani.

So if you go back

Deci daca mergi inapoi

about two and a half billion years,

acum doua miliarde si jumatate de ani,

the Earth was this big, sterile hunk of rock

Pamantul era o bucata mare de roca sterila

with a lot of chemicals floating around on it.

cu multe chimicale plutind in jurul sau.

And if you look at the way

Iar daca privim felul in care

that the chemicals got organized,

chimicalele s-au organizat,

we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.

incepem sa intelegem destul de bine cum o fac.

And I think that there's theories that are beginning to understand

Si cred ca sunt teorii care incep sa inteleaga

about how it started with RNA,

cum a inceput RNA

but I'm going to tell a sort of simple story of it,

dar voi spune o poveste simpla despre asta,

which is that, at that time,

si anume, ca la acea data

there were little drops of oil floating around

erau picaturi mici de ulei care pluteau

with all kinds of different recipes of chemicals in them.

cu tot felul de diferite retete chimice in ele.

And some of those drops of oil

Si unele dintre acele stropi de ulei

had a particular combination of chemicals in them

aveau o combinatie de chimicale mai deosebita

which caused them to incorporate chemicals from the outside

care a cauzat incorporarea chimicalelor exterioare

and grow the drops of oil.

si cresterea picaturilor de ulei.

And those that were like that

Si cele care erau asa

started to split and divide.

au inceput sa se separe si sa se divida.

And those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense,

Si acelea au fost cele mai primitive celule intr-un fel,

those little drops of oil.

acele picaturi de ulei.

But now those drops of oil weren't really alive, as we say it now,

Dar acele picaturi nu erau cu adevarat in viata, cum spunem acum,

because every one of them

pentru ca fiecare dintre ele

was a little random recipe of chemicals.

era o reteta de chimicale aleatorie.

And every time it divided,

Si ori de cate ori se diviza,

they got sort of unequal division

aveau o diviziune inegala

of the chemicals within them.

a chimicalelor din interior.

And so every drop was a little bit different.

Deci fiecare picatura era putin diferita.

In fact, the drops that were different in a way

De fapt picaturile care erau diferite intr-un fel

that caused them to be better

care le facea sa fie mai bune

at incorporating chemicals around them,

la incorporarea chimicalelor din jurul lor,

grew more and incorporated more chemicals and divided more.

cresteau mai mult si incorporau mai multe chimicale divizandu-se mai mult.

So those tended to live longer,

Deci cele mai longevive,

get expressed more.

sunt mai exprimate.

Now that's sort of just a very simple

Acesta este o simpla

chemical form of life,

forma chimica de viata,

but when things got interesting

dar lucrurile au devenit interesante

was when these drops

cand aceste picaturi

learned a trick about abstraction.

au invatat ce inseamna abstractia.

Somehow by ways that we don't quite understand,

Cumva, prin moduri pe care nu le prea intelegem,

these little drops learned to write down information.

aceste picaturi au invatat sa scrie informatia.

They learned to record the information

Au invatat sa inregistreze informatia

that was the recipe of the cell

care era reteta celulei

onto a particular kind of chemical

pe o anume chimicala

called DNA.

numita ADN.

So in other words, they worked out,

Cu alte cuvinte, au creat,

in this mindless sort of evolutionary way,

in evolutia lor haotica,

a form of writing that let them write down what they were,

o forma a scrisului care le permite sa transmita ce erau

so that that way of writing it down could get copied.

fiind posibila copierea.

The amazing thing is that that way of writing

Uimitor este faptul ca acea forma de scriere

seems to have stayed steady

pare sa fi ramas stabila

since it evolved two and a half billion years ago.

de la evolutia sa de acum doua miliarde si jumatate de ani.

In fact the recipe for us, our genes,

De fapt reteta genelor noastre,

is exactly that same code and that same way of writing.

este exact acelasi cod scris in acelasi fel.

In fact, every living creature is written

In fapt codul fiecarei creaturi este scris

in exactly the same set of letters and the same code.

cu aceleasi litere care sunt la fel.

In fact, one of the things that I did

De fapt, unul dintre lucrurile pe care le-am facut,

just for amusement purposes

doar pentru amuzament,

is we can now write things in this code.

este ca putem sa scriem lucruri in acest cod.

And I've got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder,

Am aici 100 micrograme de pudra alba,

which I try not to let the security people see at airports.

pe care incerc sa o ascund de paza din aeroport.

(Laughter)

(hohote de ras)

But this has in it --

Dar aceasta contine--

what I did is I took this code --

ce am facut a fost sa iau acest cod--

the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it --

codul are litere standard folosite pentru a-l simboliza--

and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA

si mi-am scris cartea de vizita pe o bucata de ADN

and amplified it 10 to the 22 times.

si am amplificat-o de 10 pana la 22 de ori.

So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of my business card,

Daca doreste cineva o suta de milioane de copii ale cartii mele de vizita,

I have plenty for everyone in the room,

am destule pentru toti cei de aici,

and, in fact, everyone in the world,

si pentru intreaga populatie,

and it's right here.

chiar aici.

(Laughter)

(hohote de ras)

If I had really been a egotist,

Daca as fi fost intr-adevar un egocentric,

I would have put it into a virus and released it in the room.

l-as fi pus intr-un virus si l-as fi eliberat in incapere.

(Laughter)

(hohote de ras)

So what was the next step?

Deci care era urmatorul pas?

Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.

Scrierea ADN-ului a fost interesanta.

And that caused these cells --

Si a dus la aparitia acestor celule--

that kept them happy for another billion years.

lucru care le-a bucurat inca un miliard de ani.

But then there was another really interesting step

Dar a existat un alt pas foarte interesant

where things became completely different,

cand lucrurile s-au schimbat complet,

which is these cells started exchanging and communicating information,

adica momentul in care celulele au inceput sa comunice si sa faca schimb de informatii,

so that they began to get communities of cells.

creand comunitati de celule.

I don't know if you know this,

Nu stiu daca stiti,

but bacteria can actually exchange DNA.

dar bacteriile pot chiar si sa schimbe ADN-ul.

Now that's why, for instance,

De aceea, spre exemplu,

antibiotic resistance has evolved.

rezistenta la antibiotice a evoluat.

Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin,

Unele bacterii si-au dat seama cum sa se fereasca de penicilina,

and it went around sort of creating its little DNA information

si a inceput sa isi creeze propria mini informatie ADN

with other bacteria,

cu alte bacterii,

and now we have a lot of bacteria that are resistant to penicillin,

avand acum multe bacterii rezistente la penicilina,

because bacteria communicate.

pentru ca bacteriile comunica.

Now what this communication allowed

Aceasta comunicare a permis

was communities to form

formarea de comunitati

that, in some sense, were in the same boat together;

aflate , oarecum, in aceeasi barca

they were synergistic.

fiind sinergetice.

So they survived

Deci au supravietuit

or they failed together,

sau au dat gres impreuna,

which means that if a community was very successful,

adica daca o comunitate avea mult succes,

all the individuals in that community

toti indivizii acelei comunitati

were repeated more

se multiplicau

and they were favored by evolution.

si erau favorizati de evolutie.

Now the transition point happened

Punctul de tranzitie a urmat

when these communities got so close

cand aceste comunitati s-au apropiat asa de mult

that, in fact, they got together

incat, de fapt, s-au reunit

and decided to write down the whole recipe for the community

si au decis sa scrie intreaga reteta pentru comunitate

together on one string of DNA.

pe un singur ADN.

And so the next stage that's interesting in life

Urmatorul pas interesant al vietii

took about another billion years.

a durat un alt miliard de ani.

And at that stage,

In aceasta etapa,

we have multi-cellular communities,

avem comunitati multi-celulare,

communities of lots of different types of cells,

comunitati cu multe tipuri diferite de celule,

working together as a single organism.

care lucreaza impreuna ca un singur organism.

And in fact, we're such a multi-cellular community.

Si de fapt, suntem o astfel de comunitate multicelulara.

We have lots of cells

Avem multe celule

that are not out for themselves anymore.

care nu mai sunt independente.

Your skin cell is really useless

Celula pielii este nefolositoare

without a heart cell, muscle cell,

fara o celula a inimii, a muschilor,

a brain cell and so on.

a creierului si asa mai departe.

So these communities began to evolve

Deci aceste comunitati au inceput sa evolueze

so that the interesting level on which evolution was taking place

in asa fel incat nivelul interesant la care lua loc evolutia

was no longer a cell,

nu mai era celula,

but a community which we call an organism.

.

Now the next step that happened

Urmatoarea schimbare a avut loc

is within these communities.

in aceste comunitati.

These communities of cells,

Aceste comunitati de celule,

again, began to abstract information.

au inceput din nou sa extraga informatii.

And they began building very special structures

Si au inceput sa construiasca structuri foarte speciale

that did nothing but process information within the community.

care nu faceau nimic in afara procesarii informatiilor in comunitate.

And those are the neural structures.

Si acelea sunt structurile neurologice.

So neurons are the information processing apparatus

Deci neuronii reprezinta dispozitivul procesator de informatie

that those communities of cells built up.

construit de comunitatile de celule.

And in fact, they began to get specialists in the community

Si au inceput sa aiba specialisti in comunitate

and special structures

si structuri speciale

that were responsible for recording,

care erau responsabile cu inregistrarea,

understanding, learning information.

intelegerea, invatarea informatiilor.

And that was the brains and the nervous system

Si acelea reprezentau creierul si sistemul nervos

of those communities.

al acelor comunitati.

And that gave them an evolutionary advantage.

Acest lucru le-a dat un avantaj evolutionar.

Because at that point,

Deoarece in acest punct,

an individual --

un individ--

learning could happen

procesul de invatare putea avea loc

within the time span of a single organism,

in intervalul de timp al unui singur organism,

instead of over this evolutionary time span.

in loc de intervalul de timp al evolutiei.

So an organism could, for instance,

Deci un organism, ar putea spre exemplu,

learn not to eat a certain kind of fruit

sa invete sa nu manance un anumit fel de fruct

because it tasted bad and it got sick last time it ate it.

pentru ca avea gust rau si l-a imbolnavit data trecuta cand l-a mancat.

That could happen within the lifetime of a single organism,

Acel lucru s-ar putea intampla de-a lungul vietii unui singur organism,

whereas before they'd built these special information processing structures,

pe cand inainte ar fi construit aceste structuri speciale de procesare a informatiilor,

that would have had to be learned evolutionarily

care ar fi trebuit sa fie invatate evolutionar

over hundreds of thousands of years

de-a lungul a sute de mii de ani

by the individuals dying off that ate that kind of fruit.

de catre indivizii care au murit pentru ca au mancat acel tip de fruct.

So that nervous system,

Deci acel sistem nervos,

the fact that they built these special information structures,

faptul ca au construit aceste structuri speciale de informatie,

tremendously sped up the whole process of evolution.

a grabit mult intreg procesul de evolutie.

Because evolution could now happen within an individual.

Pentru ca evolutia se putea manifesta acum in individ.

It could happen in learning time scales.

S-ar putea intampla in perioade de invatare

But then what happened

Dar ce s-a petrecut apoi

was the individuals worked out,

a fost faptul ca indivizii au creat,

of course, tricks of communicating.

desigur, trucuri pentru a comunica.

And for example,

Si spre exemplu,

the most sophisticated version that we're aware of is human language.

cea mai sofisticata versiune pe care o cunoastem este limbajul uman.

It's really a pretty amazing invention if you think about it.

Este de fapt o inventie destul de remarcabila daca te gandesti.

Here I have a very complicated, messy,

Am o foarte complicata, dezordonata,

confused idea in my head.

confuza idee in cap.

I'm sitting here making grunting sounds basically,

Stau aici mormaind practic,

and hopefully constructing a similar messy, confused idea in your head

si sper sa creez o idee la fel de dezordonata si confuza in capul vostru

that bears some analogy to it.

care are o oarecare analogie.

But we're taking something very complicated,

Dar luam ceva foarte complicat,

turning it into sound, sequences of sounds,

il transformam in sunete, secvente de sunete,

and producing something very complicated in your brain.

si producem ceva foarte complicat in creierul tau.

So this allows us now

Deci asta ne permite acum

to begin to start functioning

sa incepem sa functionam

as a single organism.

ca un singur organism.

And so, in fact, what we've done

Ceea ce am facut, de fapt,

is we, humanity,

este ca noi umanitatea,

have started abstracting out.

am inceput sa extragem.

We're going through the same levels

trecem prin aceleasi etape

that multi-cellular organisms have gone through --

prin care au trecut si organismele multi-celulare--

abstracting out our methods of recording,

prin crearea propriilor metode de inregistrare,

presenting, processing information.

prezentare, procesare de informatii.

So for example, the invention of language

Deci, spre exemplu, inventia limbajului

was a tiny step in that direction.

a fost un pas minuscul in acea directie.

Telephony, computers,

Telefonia, computerele,

videotapes, CD-ROMs and so on

casetele video, CD-ROMurile, si asa mai departe

are all our specialized mechanisms

sunt toate mecanismele noastre specializate

that we've now built within our society

pe care le-am construit in societatea noastra

for handling that information.

pentru a lucra cu acea informatie.

And it all connects us together

Si ne conecteaza unii cu altii

into something

in ceva

that is much bigger

care este mult mai mare

and much faster

si mult mai rapid

and able to evolve

si capabil de evolutie

than what we were before.

decat ce am fost inainte.

So now, evolution can take place

Asa ca acum evolutia poate avea loc

on a scale of microseconds.

pe o scara a microsecundelor.

And you saw Ty's little evolutionary example

Si ati vazut micul exemplu evolutionar al lui Ty

where he sort of did a little bit of evolution

unde a exersat putin evolutia

on the Convolution program right before your eyes.

in cadrul programului Convolution sub privirea noastra.

So now we've speeded up the time scales once again.

Si am accelerat scara temporala din nou.

So the first steps of the story that I told you about

Primii pasi ai povestii pe care tocmai v-am spus-o

took a billion years a piece.

au durat un miliard de ani fiecare.

And the next steps,

Si urmatorii pasi,

like nervous systems and brains,

cum ar fi sistemele nervoase si creierele

took a few hundred million years.

au durat cateva sute de milioane de ani.

Then the next steps, like language and so on,

Asa ca urmatorii pasi, ca limba si altele,

took less than a million years.

au durat mai putin de un milion de ani.

And these next steps, like electronics,

Si acesti pasi care urmeaza precum electronica,

seem to be taking only a few decades.

par sa dureze doar cateva decenii.

The process is feeding on itself

Procesul se hraneste din sine insusi

and becoming, I guess, autocatalytic is the word for it --

si devine, cred, autocatalitic este cuvantul corect--

when something reinforces its rate of change.

cand ceva isi consolideaza modul de dezvoltare.

The more it changes, the faster it changes.

Cu cat se schimba mai mult cu atat se schimba mai repede.

And I think that that's what we're seeing here in this explosion of curve.

Si cred ca asta vedem aici in explozia acestei diagrame.

We're seeing this process feeding back on itself.

Vedem cum acest proces se autodezvolta.

Now I design computers for a living,

Eu proiectez computere ca meserie,

and I know that the mechanisms

si stiu ca mecanismele

that I use to design computers

pe care le folosesc pentru a proiecta computere

would be impossible

nu ar putea exista

without recent advances in computers.

fara descoperirile recente in materie de computere.

So right now, what I do

Deci ce fac acum

is I design objects at such complexity

este sa proiectez obiecte de asa o complexitate

that it's really impossible for me to design them in the traditional sense.

incat este imposibil ca eu sa le proiectez in sensul traditional.

I don't know what every transistor in the connection machine does.

Nu stiu ce face fiecare tranzistor al masinariei.

There are billions of them.

Sunt miliarde.

Instead, what I do

In schimb, ceea ce fac

and what the designers at Thinking Machines do

si ce fac proiectantii de la Thinking Machines

is we think at some level of abstraction

este sa gandim la un nivel abstract

and then we hand it to the machine

si apoi lasam totul pe mana masinariei

and the machine takes it beyond what we could ever do,

si aceasta duce totul la un punct mult mai indepartat decat am putea noi sa o facem vreodata,

much farther and faster than we could ever do.

mai departe si mai repede decat am putea noi s-o facem.

And in fact, sometimes it takes it by methods

Si de fapt uneori o face prin metode

that we don't quite even understand.

pe care nu le prea intelegem.

One method that's particularly interesting

O metoda deosebit de interesanta

that I've been using a lot lately

pe care o folosesc mult in ultimul timp

is evolution itself.

este insasi evolutia.

So what we do

Ceea ce facem

is we put inside the machine

este sa punem in interiorul masinariei

a process of evolution

un proces de evolutie

that takes place on the microsecond time scale.

care are loc in timpul unei microsecunde.

So for example,

Deci spre exemplu,

in the most extreme cases,

in cele mai extreme cazuri,

we can actually evolve a program

putem evolua un program

by starting out with random sequences of instructions.

incepand cu secvente de instructiuni aleatorii.

Say, "Computer, would you please make

Sa spunem," Computer, vrei sa faci te rog

a hundred million random sequences of instructions.

o suta de milioane de succesiuni de instructiuni aleatorii.

Now would you please run all of those random sequences of instructions,

Acum te rog sa rulezi aceste instructiuni,

run all of those programs,

aceste programe,

and pick out the ones that came closest to doing what I wanted."

si sa le alegi pe cele care au fost cele mai apropiate de ceea ce cautam eu."

So in other words, I define what I wanted.

Cu alte cuvinte, definesc ceea ce voiam.

Let's say I want to sort numbers,

Sa spunem ca vreau sa sortez numere,

as a simple example I've done it with.

ca un exemplu a cum am facut-o.

So find the programs that come closest to sorting numbers.

Gaseste programele cele mai apropiate de sortarea numerelor.

So of course, random sequences of instructions

Desigur, secventele de instructiuni aleatorii

are very unlikely to sort numbers,

au putine sanse sa sorteze numere,

so none of them will really do it.

deci niciuna n-o va face cu adevarat.

But one of them, by luck,

Dar una dintre ele, cu putin noroc,

may put two numbers in the right order.

ar putea pune doua numere in ordinea corecta.

And I say, "Computer,

Si eu spun,"Computer,

would you please now take the 10 percent

ia acum cele 10 la suta

of those random sequences that did the best job.

din acele succesiuni aleatorii care au facut cea mai buna treaba.

Save those. Kill off the rest.

Salveaza-le pe acelea. Distruge-le pe restul.

And now let's reproduce

Si acum sa le reproducem

the ones that sorted numbers the best.

pe cele care au sortat numerele cel mai bine.

And let's reproduce them by a process of recombination

Si sa le reproducem printr-un proces de recombinare

analogous to sex."

asemanator cu sexul."

Take two programs and they produce children

Luam doua programe si ele produc copii

by exchanging their subroutines,

facand schimb de subprograme,

and the children inherit the traits of the subroutines of the two programs.

si copiii mostenesc trasaturile ambelor subprograme.

So I've got now a new generation of programs

Deci am o noua generatie de programe

that are produced by combinations

care sunt produse prin combinarea

of the programs that did a little bit better job.

programelor care au facut o treaba putin mai buna.

Say, "Please repeat that process."

Spunem,"Te rog repeta procesul."

Score them again.

Sortam din nou.

Introduce some mutations perhaps.

Introducem poate unele mutatii.

And try that again and do that for another generation.

Si incercam asta din nou facand-o pentru alta generatie.

Well every one of those generations just takes a few milliseconds.

Fiecare generatie necesita cateva milisecunde.

So I can do the equivalent

Deci pot face echivalentul

of millions of years of evolution on that

a milioane de ani de evolutie astfel

within the computer in a few minutes,

pe un computer in cateva minute,

or in the complicated cases, in a few hours.

sau in cazurile complicate, in cateva ore.

At the end of that, I end up with programs

La sfarsit am programe

that are absolutely perfect at sorting numbers.

care sunt absolut perfecte la sortarea numerelor.

In fact, they are programs that are much more efficient

Sunt, in fapt, programe care sunt mult mai eficiente

than programs I could have ever written by hand.

decat cele pe care as fi putut sa le scriu manual.

Now if I look at those programs,

Daca ma uit la acele programe,

I can't tell you how they work.

nu va pot spune cum functioneaza.

I've tried looking at them and telling you how they work.

Am incercat sa le studiez si sa va spun cum functioneaza.

They're obscure, weird programs.

Sunt programe obscure, ciudate.

But they do the job.

Dar isi fac meseria.

And in fact, I know, I'm very confident that they do the job

Si stiu, in fapt, sunt convins ca-si fac treaba

because they come from a line

pentru ca provin dintr-o serie de

of hundreds of thousands of programs that did the job.

sute de mii de programe care si-au facut treaba.

In fact, their life depended on doing the job.

De fapt, viata lor depindea de infaptuirea scopului.

(Laughter)

(hohote de ras)

I was riding in a 747

Mergeam odata intr-un avion 747

with Marvin Minsky once,

cu Marvin Minski,

and he pulls out this card and says, "Oh look. Look at this.

si el scoate un card si spune," Priveste.

It says, 'This plane has hundreds of thousands of tiny parts

Spune, " Acest avion are sute de mii de parti minuscule

working together to make you a safe flight.'

care lucreaza impreuna pentru un zbor sigur."

Doesn't that make you feel confident?"

Nu te face sa te simti increzator?"

(Laughter)

(hohote de ras)

In fact, we know that the engineering process doesn't work very well

Stim ca procesul tehnologic nu functioneaza foarte bine

when it gets complicated.

cand devine complicat.

So we're beginning to depend on computers

Deci incepem sa depindem de computere

to do a process that's very different than engineering.

sa faca un procedeu foarte diferit de cel ingineresc.

And it lets us produce things of much more complexity

Si ne permite sa producem lucruri mult mai complexe

than normal engineering lets us produce.

decat ne permite ingineria normala.

And yet, we don't quite understand the options of it.

Si totusi, nu intelegem pe deplin optiunile sale.

So in a sense, it's getting ahead of us.

Deci pe de-o parte ne-o ia inainte.

We're now using those programs

Acum folosim acele programe

to make much faster computers

pentru a face computere mult mai rapide

so that we'll be able to run this process much faster.

pentru a putea rula acest proces mult mai repede.

So it's feeding back on itself.

Deci se auto dezvolta.

The thing is becoming faster

Devine mai rapid

and that's why I think it seems so confusing.

si de aceea cred ca produce confuzie.

Because all of these technologies are feeding back on themselves.

Pentru ca toate aceste tehnologii se autodezvolta.

We're taking off.

Decolam.

And what we are is we're at a point in time

Si suntem intr-un punct in timp

which is analogous to when single-celled organisms

analog cu acela in care organismele unicelulare

were turning into multi-celled organisms.

se transformau in organisme multicelulare.

So we're the amoebas

Suntem amibele

and we can't quite figure out what the hell this thing is we're creating.

si nu ne prea putem da seama ce naiba cream.

We're right at that point of transition.

Suntem in punctul de tranzitie.

But I think that there really is something coming along after us.

Dar cred ca este cu adevarat ceva ce urmeaza dupa noi.

I think it's very haughty of us

Cred ca este arogant din partea noastra

to think that we're the end product of evolution.

sa credem ca suntem produsul finit al evolutiei.

And I think all of us here

Si cred ca toti cei de aici

are a part of producing

sunt o parte a producerii

whatever that next thing is.

urmatorului lucru, indiferent care va fi acela.

So lunch is coming along,

Se apropie pranzul,

and I think I will stop at that point,

si cred ca ma voi opri in acest punct

before I get selected out.

inainte sa fiu indepartat.

(Applause)

(Aplauze)