Can you solve the monster duel riddle? - Alex Gendler

翻译人员: Boyu Yang 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

You’ve come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league

你在“轮盘大师（Diskymon）” 大战里一路过关斩将，

and prove yourself a Diskymon master.

已经证明自己是 一名合格的“轮盘大师”。

Now that you’ve made it to the finals, you’re up against some tough competition.

现在你进入了决赛圈， 你将面临艰难的挑战。

As you enter the arena, the referee explains the rules.

你进入竞技场后， 裁判正在解释规则。

There are three Diskydisks you can use.

每位训练师有三个 神奇轮盘可以使用。

Disk A will always summon a level 3 Burgersaur.

轮盘 A 一定会 召唤出一个 3 级“汉堡怪”。

Disk B summons a Churrozard that has a 56% chance of being level 2,

轮盘 B 会召唤出一只油条蜥， 56 % 的机率会召唤出 2 级的，

a 22% chance of being level 4, and a 22% chance of being level 6.

有 22% 的机率 召唤出 4 级或 6 级的。

Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla 49% of the time,

轮盘 C 有 49% 的机率 召唤出等级 5 的玉米饼战争机器，

and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.

并有 51% 的机率召唤出一个 等级 1 的玉米饼战争机器。

All Diskymon fully heal between battles, and the higher level Diskymon always wins,

战斗过后，所有轮盘怪 都会完全恢复战斗力，

无论它们是什么品种， 拥有更高等级的总会获胜。

no matter what type it is.

In round one, you’ll face a single opponent

在第一轮，你只需面对一个对手，

and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two.

并且你可以先挑选轮盘， 对手会从剩下的两个中挑选一个。

Which one gives you the best chance of winning?

哪一个的获胜几率最大？

Pause here to figure it out yourself

【请暂停视频，自行解题】

Answer in 3

【答案将在三秒后揭晓】 3，

Answer in 2

2，

Answer in 1

1。

Before you start calculating probabilities,

在你开始计算概率之前，

take a look at the disks themselves.

我们先来看看 3 个轮盘的功能。

Disks B and C each have a more than 50% chance

轮盘 B 和轮盘 C 都有超过一半的概率

of summoning a level 2 or a level 1 Diskymon, respectively.

召唤出一个 等级 2 或等级 1 的怪兽。

This means that disk A’s guaranteed level 3 Burgersaur

这意味着轮盘 A 会保证召唤出一个 3 级汉堡怪，

will always have better than even odds of winning.

并永远有超过一半的机率获胜。

If you choose B or C, your opponent could pick A and gain an advantage over you.

如果你选择 B 或 C， 你的对手可能会选 A 来战胜你。

And C fares worst of all, being more than 50% likely to lose to any opponent.

C 是最差的，用它会有 超过一半的可能性输给任何对手。

So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough,

所以你选了 A ， 并希望有最好的结果。

your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard.

果不其然，你等级 3 的汉堡怪 战胜了等级 2 的油条蜥。

Now it’s time for round two, and while you’ve prepared for trouble,

现在来到了第二轮， 虽然你准备好面对困难，

you didn’t anticipate they’d make it double.

出乎意料的是， 你的挑战难度加倍了。

You get to choose any one of the three disks again,

你可以再次选择 三个轮盘中的任何一个，

but this time, you’ll be in a battle royale against two opponents,

但是这次，您将与两个对手 （每个都使用另一个轮盘）

each using one of the other disks.

进行一场大逃杀。

Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins.

召唤出等级最高的轮盘怪的 则是本轮的赢家。

Should you stick with A, or switch?

那么，你应该继续 用 A 还是换轮盘？

Pause now to figure it out yourself

【请暂停视频，自行解题】

Answer in 3

Answer in 2

【答案将在三秒后揭晓】 3，

2，

Answer in 1

1。

For many Diskymon trainers,

对于许多训练师来说，

it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C,

如果选 A，目的是 逐个打败 B 或 C的话，

it should also be the best at beating B and C.

一定也可以同时打败 B 和 C。

Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

但奇怪的是，这并不是事实。

Let’s calculate the odds.

让我们来计算一下概率。

For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon,

如果 A 要赢， B 必须要召唤出一个 2 级怪兽，

and C has to summon a level 1.

并且 C 必须召唤出 一个 1 级怪兽。

Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%.

这些是独立事件，因此发生的几率 是 56％ 乘以 51％，即 29％。

For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur.

轮盘 B 这边，等级 2 的油条蜥 肯定会输给汉堡怪。

But you’d have two ways to win.

但你有两种方法来赢。

The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win,

第一，22% 的机率召唤出 等级 6 的怪兽让你大获全胜，

while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1.

其二，召唤出等级 4 的怪兽，只要 C 召唤出等级 1 的怪兽，你也能够胜出。

Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%.

加总这两个互相独立的机率， 可以得出 33% 的胜率。

Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla

最后，轮盘 C 可以召唤出 一个等级 5 的战争机器，

as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall.

只要轮盘 B 不召唤出一个 6 级怪兽， 你就有 38 % 的胜率。

So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup,

所以尽管轮盘 A 的中等一致性 在单一比赛中是一种优势，

multiple fights increase the odds

但多次战斗会增加

that one of the other disks will summon something better.

其他轮盘召唤出 等级更高的怪兽的几率。

And although C was the worst first-round option,

虽然 C 是第一轮最糟糕的选择，

its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage

但当它同时面对两个对手时，

when facing two opponents simultaneously.

它有机会召唤出 一个强大的 5 级怪兽。

This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics

这种违反直觉的结果就是 为什么误导的统计数据

are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians

成了不择手段的政客 和邪恶的轮盘怪兽训练师

and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.

更喜欢使用的工具。

Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out level 5 and makes short work of its foes.

幸运的是，你的 5 级玉米饼战争机器 很快就干掉了它的敌人。

You’re about to celebrate when your rivals capture the referee

当你正准备庆祝胜利时， 你的对手抓住裁判，

and announce a surprise third round.

把比赛拖入了第三轮。

You’ll have to repeat each of the previous matches in succession,

你必须重复前面的每一轮比赛， 所有规则都相同，

with all the same rules except for one: you must keep the same disk throughout.

只有一个例外： 你必须使用相同的轮盘。

Which should you choose to give yourself the best chance

这样的话， 你应该选择哪一个轮盘，

at becoming that which no one ever was?

让自己更有可能成为 史无前例的轮盘大师呢？