Can you solve the monster duel riddle? - Alex Gendler

譯者: 毓湘 侯 審譯者: Helen Chang

You’ve come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league

你在迪奇夢大戰裡一路過關斬將

and prove yourself a Diskymon master.

已經證明自己是迪奇夢訓練大師了

Now that you’ve made it to the finals, you’re up against some tough competition.

現在來到終點戰 你將面臨艱難的挑戰

As you enter the arena, the referee explains the rules.

當你踏入競技場時 裁判正在說明規則：

There are three Diskydisks you can use.

每位訓練師有三個 迪奇夢神奇輪盤可以使用

Disk A will always summon a level 3 Burgersaur.

神奇輪盤 A 總是召喚 等級三的漢堡怪

Disk B summons a Churrozard that has a 56% chance of being level 2,

神奇輪盤 B 召喚的嗚嗚蜥 有 56% 的機會是等級二

a 22% chance of being level 4, and a 22% chance of being level 6.

22% 的機會是等級四

和 22% 的機會是等級六

Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla 49% of the time,

神奇輪盤 C 召喚的疣米怪 有 49% 的機會是等級五

and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.

以及 51% 的機會是等級一

戰鬥過後，迪奇夢都會完全恢復戰力

All Diskymon fully heal between battles, and the higher level Diskymon always wins,

無論怪獸的品種 擁有最高等級的獲勝

no matter what type it is.

In round one, you’ll face a single opponent

第一回合，你將只面對一個挑戰者

and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two.

你可以先挑選神奇輪盤 然後對手再從挑剩輪盤擇一

Which one gives you the best chance of winning?

到底要選哪一個神奇輪盤 贏面較大呢？

Pause here to figure it out yourself

在這裏暫停一下，你自己想想看 【答案將在三秒後揭曉】3

Answer in 3

Answer in 2

2

Answer in 1

1

Before you start calculating probabilities,

在你開始計算機率前

take a look at the disks themselves.

我們來看一下三個神奇輪盤的功用

Disks B and C each have a more than 50% chance

輪盤 B 和輪盤 C

各有超過一半的機率

of summoning a level 2 or a level 1 Diskymon, respectively.

召喚等級二或等級一的怪獸

This means that disk A’s guaranteed level 3 Burgersaur

這表示召喚等級三漢堡怪的輪盤 A

will always have better than even odds of winning.

保證有超過一半機率會贏

If you choose B or C, your opponent could pick A and gain an advantage over you.

如果你選 B 或 C 對手可能會選 A 來勝過你

And C fares worst of all, being more than 50% likely to lose to any opponent.

選擇 C 最慘

有超過一半機率輸給任何對手

So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough,

所以你選 A 希望得到最好的結果

果不其然，你等級三的漢堡怪 戰勝等級二的嗚嗚蜥

your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard.

Now it’s time for round two, and while you’ve prepared for trouble,

現在來到第二回合 雖然你準備好面對困難

you didn’t anticipate they’d make it double.

出乎意料，挑戰加倍困難

You get to choose any one of the three disks again,

你仍然要從三個 神奇輪盤中挑選一個

but this time, you’ll be in a battle royale against two opponents,

但此次冠軍戰 你要同時面對兩個對手

each using one of the other disks.

他們也會選擇各自的神奇輪盤

Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins.

召喚出最高等級的迪奇夢則是贏家

Should you stick with A, or switch?

你該選 A， 還是換一個呢？

Pause now to figure it out yourself

此時暫停一下，你自己想想看 【答案將在三秒後揭曉】3

Answer in 3

Answer in 2

2

Answer in 1

1

For many Diskymon trainers,

對於許多迪奇夢訓練師而言

it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C,

依照直覺，選 A 可以個別打敗 B 或 C

it should also be the best at beating B and C.

應該也可以同時打敗 B 與 C

Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

奇怪的是，事實並非如此

讓我們來算一下機率

Let’s calculate the odds.

For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon,

A 要贏，得要 B 召喚等級二的怪獸

and C has to summon a level 1.

而且 C 召喚等級一

Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%.

這是兩個獨立事件

因此機率是 56% 乘以 51%

即 29%

For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur.

輪盤 B 這邊 等級二的嗚嗚蜥輸給漢堡怪

But you’d have two ways to win.

但仍有兩種方式會贏

The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win,

其一，22% 機率召喚出等級六的怪獸

會讓你大獲全勝

while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1.

其二，22% 機率召喚出等級四的怪獸 即使 C 只召喚等級一，也能夠勝出

Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%.

加總這兩個互相獨立的機率 得出 33% 的勝率

Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla

最後，C 召喚等級五疣米怪的贏面

as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall.

——只要 B 不召喚等級六——

C 就有 38% 的獲勝機率

So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup,

雖然選 A 在單打獨鬥時有優勢

multiple fights increase the odds

但多次打架反而提高 其他輪盤更好的召喚機會

that one of the other disks will summon something better.

And although C was the worst first-round option,

雖然第一回合選 C 會最差

its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage

卻有不錯的機會 可召喚出強勢的等級五

獲得同時面對兩個對手時的優勢

when facing two opponents simultaneously.

This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics

這種違背直覺的結果

是那些不道德的政客 最喜歡用來誤導大眾的統計數據

are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians

and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.

也是邪惡的迪奇夢訓練師喜歡的

Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out level 5 and makes short work of its foes.

你幸運地召喚出等級五的疣米怪 迅速地擊敗對手

You’re about to celebrate when your rivals capture the referee

當你要大肆慶祝的時候 你的對手抓住了裁判

and announce a surprise third round.

並且宣佈不在預期內的第三回合

You’ll have to repeat each of the previous matches in succession,

你必需重複之前的連兩場比賽

with all the same rules except for one: you must keep the same disk throughout.

規則相同，只有一個例外

就是在所有比賽中 你只能用同一個輪盤

Which should you choose to give yourself the best chance

這樣的話，你應該選擇哪一個輪盤

at becoming that which no one ever was?

來讓自己成為 史無前例的訓練大師呢？