How AI can save our humanity | Kai-Fu Lee

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

I'm going to talk about how AI and mankind can coexist,

我將要談的是人類 和人工智慧要如何共存，

but first, we have to rethink about our human values.

但首先，我們先要 重新審視人類的價值觀。

So let me first make a confession about my errors in my values.

讓我先坦誠我在 我的價值觀中所犯的錯誤。

It was 11 o'clock, December 16, 1991.

那是 1991 年 12 月 16 日 11 點。

I was about to become a father for the first time.

我就要成為一個新手爸爸了。

My wife, Shen-Ling, lay in the hospital bed

我的太太先玲躺在醫院的病床上，

going through a very difficult 12-hour labor.

經歷著一段艱辛 並長達十二個小時的分娩。

I sat by her bedside

我就坐在床邊，

but looked anxiously at my watch,

但很焦慮地看著我的手錶，

and I knew something that she didn't.

我知道一件她不知道的事。

I knew that if in one hour,

我知道，如果一個小時內，

our child didn't come,

我們的孩子還不出來，

I was going to leave her there

我就得要把她丟在那裡，

and go back to work

回去工作，

and make a presentation about AI

去做一場關於人工智慧的簡報，

to my boss, Apple's CEO.

對象是我的老闆，蘋果的執行長。

Fortunately, my daughter was born at 11:30 --

幸運的是，我女兒 在 11:30 出生了——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

sparing me from doing the unthinkable,

讓我不用去做我無法想像的事，

and to this day, I am so sorry

至今，我仍然很後悔

for letting my work ethic take precedence over love for my family.

我把工作擺在了我對家人的愛之前。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

My AI talk, however, went off brilliantly.

然而，我的人工智慧演說表現超好。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Apple loved my work and decided to announce it

蘋果很愛我的作品，

at TED1992,

決定在 TED 1992 宣佈它，

26 years ago on this very stage.

26 年前，就在這個舞台上。

I thought I had made one of the biggest, most important discoveries in AI,

我認為我在人工智慧上 有了最大、最重要的發現，

and so did the "Wall Street Journal" on the following day.

隔天的《華爾街日報》也這麼認為。

But as far as discoveries went,

但隨著越來越多的「發現」，

it turned out,

結果是，

I didn't discover India, or America.

我沒有發現印度，或美洲。

Perhaps I discovered a little island off of Portugal.

也許我發現的是 葡萄牙外海的一個小島。

But the AI era of discovery continued,

但人工智慧發現的時代 仍然繼續走下去了，

and more scientists poured their souls into it.

更多的科學家 全心全意地投入其中。

About 10 years ago, the grand AI discovery

大約十年前，三位北美科學家

was made by three North American scientists,

有了偉大的人工智慧發現，

and it's known as deep learning.

即大家所知的深度學習。

Deep learning is a technology that can take a huge amount of data

深度學習這項技術， 是一個能利用海量數據

within one single domain

在單一領域中

and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy.

學會做超高精度的預測或判斷的技術。

For example, if we show the deep learning network

比如，如果我們給深度學習網路

a massive number of food photos,

提供海量的食物照片，

it can recognize food

它就能辨識出食物，

such as hot dog or no hot dog.

比如熱狗，或不是熱狗。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Or if we show it many pictures and videos and sensor data

或者，如果我讓它看很多 在公路上開車的照片、

from driving on the highway,

影片，以及感測器資料，

it can actually drive a car as well as a human being

它就能夠在高速公路上 嫺熟地駕駛一台車，

絲毫不輸給人類。

on the highway.

And what if we showed this deep learning network

如果我們向這個深度學習網路展示

all the speeches made by President Trump?

川普總統做過的所有演說呢？

Then this artificially intelligent President Trump,

那麼，這位人工智慧的川普總統，

actually the network --

其實就是這個網路——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

can --

能夠——

(Applause)

（掌聲）

You like double oxymorons, huh?

你們喜歡一語雙關，是吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲） （註：artificial 也是「虛假造作的」）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So this network, if given the request to make a speech about AI,

所以，如果要求這個網路 做出一段關於人工智慧的演說，

he, or it, might say --

他，或它，可能會說——

(Recording) Donald Trump: It's a great thing

（錄音）川普：這是很棒的事，

to build a better world with artificial intelligence.

用人工智慧來建造一個更好的世界。

Kai-Fu Lee: And maybe in another language?

講者：換個語言呢？

DT: (Speaking Chinese)

川普：（說中文） 人工智能正在改變世界。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

KFL: You didn't know he knew Chinese, did you?

講者：你們不知道川普會說中文吧？

So deep learning has become the core in the era of AI discovery,

所以，深度學習已經成為 人工智慧發現時代的核心，

and that's led by the US.

且是由美國來領導的。

But we're now in the era of implementation,

但現在，我們已經進入實踐的時代，

where what really matters is execution, product quality, speed and data.

在這個時代，重要的是執行、 產品品質、速度，和資料。

And that's where China comes in.

這就是中國出場的時候了。

Chinese entrepreneurs,

身為創業投資家，

who I fund as a venture capitalist,

我投資的中國企業家

are incredible workers,

是很棒的實幹家，

amazing work ethic.

有很了不起的職業道德。

My example in the delivery room is nothing compared to how hard people work in China.

我在產房的那個例子， 完全不及中國人們賣力工作的程度。

As an example, one startup tried to claim work-life balance:

舉個例子，有間新興公司 提出「工作—生活」的平衡：

"Come work for us because we are 996."

「來為我們工作，因為我們是 996。」

And what does that mean?

那是什麼意思？

It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm, six days a week.

意思是，工作時間從早上 9 點 到晚上 9 點，一週工作 6 天。

That's contrasted with other startups that do 997.

相對的，其他新興公司都是 997。

And the Chinese product quality has consistently gone up

而中國的產品品質

在過去十年間持續不斷地提升，

in the past decade,

and that's because of a fiercely competitive environment.

那是因為這個環境中的 競爭太激烈了。

In Silicon Valley, entrepreneurs compete in a very gentlemanly fashion,

在矽谷，企業家會 以很紳仕的方式競爭，

sort of like in old wars in which each side took turns

有點像是古老的戰爭，雙方會輪流

to fire at each other.

向對方開火。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But in the Chinese environment,

但在中國的環境中，

it's truly a gladiatorial fight to the death.

就像是羅馬競技場， 不死不休的戰鬥。

In such a brutal environment, entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly,

在這麼殘酷的環境中， 企業家學會要非常快速地成長，

they learn to make their products better at lightning speed,

他們學會要雷厲風行地 讓自己的產品變更好，

and they learn to hone their business models

他們學會要一直鍛鍊 他們的商業模型，

until they're impregnable.

直到堅不可摧為止。

As a result, great Chinese products like WeChat and Weibo

結果就是，優秀的中國產品， 如微信和微博，

are arguably better

可以說比美國

than the equivalent American products from Facebook and Twitter.

相對應產品， 如臉書和推特，還要好。

And the Chinese market embraces this change

且中國市場擁抱這樣的改變、

and accelerated change and paradigm shifts.

加速的改變，以及範式轉移。

As an example, if any of you go to China,

舉個例，如果你去中國，

you will see it's almost cashless and credit card-less,

你會發現幾乎沒有 在用現金或是信用卡，

because that thing that we all talk about, mobile payment,

原因就是我們大家都在談的 那樣東西，移動支付，

has become the reality in China.

在中國已經實現。

In the last year,

去年，

18.8 trillion US dollars were transacted on mobile internet,

行動網路上的交易金額 達到 18.8 兆美元，

and that's because of very robust technologies

那是因為在行動支付背後的技術

built behind it.

非常穩定健全。

It's even bigger than the China GDP.

這個數字比中國的國內生產總值還高。

And this technology, you can say, how can it be bigger than the GDP?

你會問，這項技術怎麼可能 超越國內生產總值？

Because it includes all transactions:

因為它包含所有的交易：

wholesale, channels, retail, online, offline,

批發、電視台、零售、線上、線下、

going into a shopping mall or going into a farmers market like this.

到購物中心去買， 或到像這樣的農民市場去買。

The technology is used by 700 million people

有 7 億人使用移動支付

to pay each other, not just merchants,

來付錢給彼此，不只付錢給商人，

so it's peer to peer,

所以，它是點對點的，

and it's almost transaction-fee-free.

且幾乎不需要交易手續費。

And it's instantaneous,

且是立即生效，

and it's used everywhere.

到處都在使用。

And finally, the China market is enormous.

最後一點，中國的市場很巨大。

This market is large,

這個市場很大，

which helps give entrepreneurs more users, more revenue,

讓企業家能有更多的 使用者、更多的收益、

more investment, but most importantly,

更多的投資，最重要的是，

it gives the entrepreneurs a chance to collect a huge amount of data

它讓企業家有機會 能收集到大量的數據資料，

which becomes rocket fuel for the AI engine.

這些資料就成了 人工智慧引擎的火箭燃料。

So as a result, the Chinese AI companies

結果就是，中國的人工智慧公司

have leaped ahead

已經大躍進，跳到前頭，

so that today, the most valuable companies

所以，現今，最有價值的公司，

in computer vision, speech recognition,

不論是在電腦視覺、語音識別、

speech synthesis, machine translation and drones

語音合成、機器翻譯， 及無人機的領域，

are all Chinese companies.

都是中國公司稱霸。

So with the US leading the era of discovery

美國領導的是發現的時代，

and China leading the era of implementation,

而中國領導的是導入的時代，

we are now in an amazing age

我們現在身處一個很了不起的時代，

where the dual engine of the two superpowers

這兩種超能力的雙重引擎

are working together

在同心協力，

to drive the fastest revolution in technology

在科技領域中， 推動我們人類所見過

that we have ever seen as humans.

最快速的革命。

And this will bring tremendous wealth,

這會帶來驚人的財富，

unprecedented wealth:

前所未有的財富：

16 trillion dollars, according to PwC,

根據普華永道會計師事務所的資料，

in terms of added GDP to the worldwide GDP by 2030.

到 2030 年，全世界的國內生產總值 會增加 16 兆美元。

It will also bring immense challenges

這也會帶來極大的挑戰：

in terms of potential job replacements.

潛在的工作取代性問題。

Whereas in the Industrial Age

在工業時代，

it created more jobs

它創造了更多的工作，

because craftsman jobs were being decomposed into jobs in the assembly line,

因為技工的工作被重新 分解成為生產線的工作，

so more jobs were created.

所以創造了更多的工作。

But AI completely replaces the individual jobs

但人工智慧完全取代了個人的工作，

in the assembly line with robots.

在生產線上直接用機器人。

And it's not just in factories,

且不只是在工廠，

but truckers, drivers

還有貨車司機、一般司機，

and even jobs like telesales, customer service

甚至像電話銷售、客戶服務、

and hematologists as well as radiologists

血液學學者，以及放射線研究者

over the next 15 years

在未來十五年

are going to be gradually replaced

都可能漸漸被

by artificial intelligence.

人工智慧取代。

And only the creative jobs --

只有有創意的工作——

(Laughter)

（笑聲） （表中講者被列在「安全」）

I have to make myself safe, right?

我得讓我自己很安全，對吧？

Really, the creative jobs are the ones that are protected,

說真的，有創意的工作 是受到保護的工作，

because AI can optimize but not create.

因為人工智慧能夠 做到最佳化，但不能創造。

But what's more serious than the loss of jobs

但比失去工作更嚴重的，

is the loss of meaning,

是失去意義，

because the work ethic in the Industrial Age

因為在工業時代的工作倫理

has brainwashed us into thinking that work is the reason we exist,

已經將我們洗腦， 認為工作是我們存在的理由，

that work defined the meaning of our lives.

認為工作定義了我們人生的意義。

And I was a prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking.

我就曾是那種工作狂思想的 主要受害者，也是自願受害者。

I worked incredibly hard.

我工作非常努力。

That's why I almost left my wife in the delivery room,

那就是為什麼在產房時 我差一點就要丟下我太太，

that's why I worked 996 alongside my entrepreneurs.

那就是為什麼我和我的 企業家們的工作時間是 996。

And that obsession that I had with work

我先前對於工作的這種迷戀，

ended abruptly a few years ago

在幾年前突然終止了，

when I was diagnosed with fourth stage lymphoma.

因為我被診斷出第四期的淋巴癌。

The PET scan here shows over 20 malignant tumors

這裡的正子掃描結果顯示 有超過 20 個惡性腫瘤

jumping out like fireballs,

像火球一樣跳出來，

melting away my ambition.

融化了我的野心。

But more importantly,

但，更重要的是，

it helped me reexamine my life.

它讓我重新檢視我的人生。

Knowing that I may only have a few months to live

知道我可能只剩下幾個月能活，

caused me to see how foolish it was

讓我看清了我有多愚蠢，

for me to base my entire self-worth

因為我把我的整個自我價值

on how hard I worked and the accomplishments from hard work.

建立在工作努力程度上， 以及努力帶來的成就上。

My priorities were completely out of order.

我的優先順序完全錯亂。

I neglected my family.

我忽視了我的家庭。

My father had passed away,

我父親已經過世，

and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him.

我從來沒有機會告訴他我愛他。

My mother had dementia and no longer recognized me,

我母親有失智症，已經不認得我，

and my children had grown up.

我的孩子已經長大。

During my chemotherapy,

在我做化療期間，

I read a book by Bronnie Ware

我讀了一本布羅妮韋爾寫的書，

who talked about dying wishes and regrets of the people in the deathbed.

談到臨終的人的死前願望和悔恨。

She found that facing death,

她發現，面對死亡時，

nobody regretted that they didn't work hard enough in this life.

沒有人後悔這一生的 工作不夠努力。

They only regretted that they didn't spend enough time with their loved ones

他們只會後悔沒有花 足夠時間陪他們愛的人，

and that they didn't spread their love.

沒有把他們的愛散播出去。

So I am fortunately today in remission.

現在，我很幸運處於緩解期。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So I can be back at TED again

所以我能再次回到 TED，

to share with you that I have changed my ways.

和各位分享， 我已經改變了我的方式。

I now only work 965 --

我現在的工作方式是 965 ——

occasionally 996, but usually 965.

偶爾是 996，但通常是 965。

I moved closer to my mother,

我搬到離我母親比較近的地方，

my wife usually travels with me,

我太太通常與我一同旅行，

and when my kids have vacation, if they don't come home, I go to them.

當我的孩子有假期時， 若他們不回家，我會去找他們。

So it's a new form of life

這是一種新的生活形式，

that helped me recognize

協助我了解到

how important it is that love is for me,

愛對我而言有多重要，

and facing death helped me change my life,

面對死亡，協助我改變了我的生活，

but it also helped me see a new way

也協助我找到了一種新的方式，

of how AI should impact mankind

看待人工智慧對於人類的衝擊，

and work and coexist with mankind,

以及如何和人類合作與共存，

that really, AI is taking away a lot of routine jobs,

確實，人工智慧會奪走 很多例行性的工作，

but routine jobs are not what we're about.

但我們並不只會做例行性的工作。

Why we exist is love.

我們存在的目的是愛。

When we hold our newborn baby,

當我們抱著新生的嬰兒，

love at first sight,

第一眼就產生了愛，

or when we help someone in need,

當我們協助了需要幫忙的人，

humans are uniquely able to give and receive love,

人類能給予愛和接收愛， 這是獨一無二的，

and that's what differentiates us from AI.

這就是我們和人工智慧的差別。

Despite what science fiction may portray,

不論科幻小說怎麼寫，

I can responsibly tell you that AI has no love.

我可以很確定地告訴各位， 人工智慧沒有愛。

When AlphaGo defeated the world champion Ke Jie,

當 AlphaGo 打敗世界冠軍柯潔，

while Ke Jie was crying and loving the game of go,

當柯潔在哭泣，他很愛圍棋比賽，

AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning

AlphaGo 卻不會感到勝利的喜悅，

and certainly no desire to hug a loved one.

肯定也不會想要去擁抱愛人。

So how do we differentiate ourselves

所以，在人工智慧的時代，

as humans in the age of AI?

我們要如何讓人類有所不同？

We talked about the axis of creativity,

我們剛有談到「創意」這個軸，

and certainly that is one possibility,

那肯定是其中一種可能性，

and now we introduce a new axis

現在，我們要再介紹一個新的軸，

that we can call compassion, love, or empathy.

我們可以稱之為 同情心、愛，或是同理心。

Those are things that AI cannot do.

那些是人工智慧做不到的。

So as AI takes away the routine jobs,

所以，當人工智慧奪走 例行性的工作時，

I like to think we can, we should and we must create jobs of compassion.

我會認為 ，我們能夠、應該而且必須 創造出同情心相關的工作。

You might ask how many of those there are,

你可能會問，這類工作有多少個？

but I would ask you:

但我會反問你：

Do you not think that we are going to need a lot of social workers

你不認為我們會需要很多社工

to help us make this transition?

來協助我們做這項轉變嗎？

Do you not think we need a lot of compassionate caregivers

你不認為我們會需要 很多有同情心的照護者

to give more medical care to more people?

來給予更多人醫療照護嗎？

Do you not think we're going to need 10 times more teachers

你不認為我們會需要十倍的老師

to help our children find their way

來協助我們的孩子找到他們的路，

to survive and thrive in this brave new world?

在這個勇敢的新世界中 存活並茁壯嗎？

And with all the newfound wealth,

且當有這麼多新的財富產生時，

should we not also make labors of love into careers

我們不應該創造以人性為本的職業，

and let elderly accompaniment

把陪伴老人，

or homeschooling become careers also?

或是居家教育也變成職業嗎？

(Applause)

（掌聲）

This graph is surely not perfect,

這張圖的確不完美，

but it points at four ways that we can work with AI.

但它能展示出我們 和人工智慧合作的四種方式。

AI will come and take away the routine jobs

人工智慧會到來， 也會奪走例行性的工作，

and in due time, we will be thankful.

到時，我們會很感激。

AI will become great tools for the creatives

對有創意的人， 人工智慧會變成很棒的工具，

so that scientists, artists, musicians and writers

讓科學家、藝術家、音樂家及作家

can be even more creative.

都更有創意。

AI will work with humans as analytical tools

人工智慧也會扮演 分析工具的角色來和人類合作，

that humans can wrap their warmth around

對於高同情心的工作，

for the high-compassion jobs.

人類可以將溫暖傾注其中。

And we can always differentiate ourselves

我們還有方式讓我們自己不同，

with the uniquely capable jobs

就是通過參與需要獨特能力的工作，

that are both compassionate and creative,

要有同情心又要有創意，

using and leveraging our irreplaceable brains and hearts.

充分利用和發揮 我們無可替代的頭腦和内心，

So there you have it:

所以，這就是：

a blueprint of coexistence for humans and AI.

人類和人工智慧共存的藍圖。

AI is serendipity.

人工智慧的發展是種機緣。

It is here to liberate us from routine jobs,

它的出現將我們 從例行性的工作中解放出來，

and it is here to remind us what it is that makes us human.

它也是來提醒我們，人因何為人。

So let us choose to embrace AI and to love one another.

所以，讓我們選擇 擁抱人工智慧，並去關愛彼此吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）