A life-saving invention that prevents human stampedes | Nilay Kulkarni

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Sylvia He

I was only nine

我只有九歲的時候，

when my grandfather first described to me the horrors he witnessed six years earlier

祖母第一次向我描述了 她在六年前目擊的恐怖情景，

when human stampedes killed 39 people

蜂擁的人群造成了 39 人被踩死，

in our hometown of Nashik, India.

地點在我們的家鄉，印度的納西克。

It was during the 2003 Nashik Kumbh Mela,

那是 2003 年納西克大壺節期間，

one of the world's largest religious gatherings.

世界上最大的宗教集會之一。

Every 12 years, over 30 million Hindu worshippers

每 12 年，就有超過 三千萬印度教參拜者

descend upon our city --

突然造訪我們的城市──

which is built only for 1.5 million people --

城市設計的容量為一百五十萬人──

and stay for 45 days.

他們會停留 45 天。

The main purpose is to wash away all their sins

主要的目的，是要洗淨他們的罪惡，

by bathing in the river Godavari.

方式是在哥達瓦里河中洗澡。

And stampedes may easily happen

踩死人的事件很容易發生，

because a high-density crowd moves at a slow pace.

因為高密度的人群以低速度在移動。

Apart from Nashik, this event happens in three other places in India,

除了納西克，印度還有 其他三個地方也有這項節慶，

with varying frequency,

舉辦頻率不同，

and between 2001 and 2014,

在 2001 年到 2014 年間，

over 2,400 lives have been lost in stampedes at these events.

在這些活動中就有 超過 2400 人被踩死。

What saddened me the most

最讓我感傷的是，

is seeing people around me resigning to the city's fate

看到我身邊的人 聽任這個城市的命運，

in witnessing the seemingly inevitable deaths of dozens

在每次大壺節都要目擊 似乎無法避免的

at every Kumbh Mela.

數十起死亡。

I sought to change this,

我想要改變這狀況，

and I thought, why can't I try to find a solution to this?

我心想，我為什麼不找個解決方案？

Because I knew it is wrong.

因為我知道這是錯的。

Having learned coding at an early age and being a maker,

我早期曾經學過程式， 加上身為製造者，

I considered the wild idea --

我有個很狂妄的點子──

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

[Makers always find a way]

〔製造者總會找到出路〕

I considered the wild idea of building a system

我的狂野點子就是要建立一個系統，

that would help regulate the flow of people

可以協助控管人的流量，

and use it in the next Kumbh Mela in 2015,

並用在下一次的 2015 年大壺節中，

to have fewer stampedes and, hopefully, fewer deaths.

減少蜂湧的情況， 希望也能減少死亡人數。

It seemed like a mission impossible,

這似乎是個不可能的任務，

a dream too big,

這個夢想太大了，

especially for a 15-year-old,

特別是對一個 15 歲男孩而言，

yet that dream came true in 2015,

然而，這個夢想在 2015 年實現了，

when not only did we succeed

我們不僅成功減少了

in reducing the stampedes and their intensity,

蜂湧的情況以及人潮的密度，

but we marked 2015

我們還讓 2015 年成為

as the first Nashik Kumbh Mela to have zero stampedes.

第一個沒有人被踩死的 納西克大壺節。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

It was the first time in recorded history

那是歷史記錄中第一次，

that this event passed without any casualties.

這個活動到結束都沒有傷亡。

How did we do it?

我們怎麼做到的？

It all started when I joined an innovation workshop

一切始於我加入一個創新研討會，

by MIT Media Lab in 2014

是麻省理工學院媒體實驗室 在 2014 年辦的，

called the Kumbhathon

叫做大壺馬拉松 (Kumbhathon)。

that aimed at solving challenges faced at the grand scale of Kumbh Mela.

目標是要解決在大壺節這麼 大規模的節慶所面臨的難題。

Now, we figured out to solve the stampede problem,

我們想出了要如何 解決踩死人的問題，

we wanted to know only three things:

我們只想知道三樣資訊：

the number of people, the location,

人數、地點，

and the rate of the flow of people per minute.

以及每分鐘的人流量。

So we started to look for technologies that would help us get these three things.

我們就開始尋找有什麼技術 能協助我們取得這三項資訊。

Can we distribute radio-frequency tokens to identify people?

我們能不能分發無線電頻率的 憑證來識別每個人？

We figured out that it would be too expensive and impractical

我們覺得這樣成本太高且不實際，

to distribute 30 million tags.

很難去分發三千萬個吊牌。

Can you use CCTV cameras with image-processing techniques?

我們能不能用閉路電視攝影機 搭配影像處理技術？

Again, too expensive for that scale,

一樣，用在這麼大規模也太貴了，

along with the disadvantages of being non-portable

還有個缺點就是無法帶著走，

and being completely useless in the case of rain,

在下雨時就完全沒用了，

which is a common thing to happen in Kumbh Mela.

而在大壺節常常會下雨。

Can we use cell phone tower data?

我們能用手機信號塔的資料嗎？

It sounds like the perfect solution,

聽起來是完美的解決方案，

but the funny part is,

但好笑的部分是，

most of the people do not carry cell phones

大部分的人不會帶手機

in events like Kumbh Mela.

到大壺節這類活動中。

Also, the data wouldn't have been granular enough for us.

此外，資料對我們來說也不夠精細。

So we wanted something that was real-time,

所以我們想要的必須要即時、

low-cost, sturdy and waterproof,

低成本、耐用、防水，

and it was easy to get the data for processing.

且要很容易取得資料來做處理。

So we built Ashioto,

所以我們建造了 Ashioto，

meaning "footstep" in Japanese,

在日文的意思是「腳步」，

as it consists of a portable mat which has pressure sensors

它是由可攜式的墊子所構成， 墊子有壓力感測器，

which can count the number of people walking on it,

能夠計算走在上面的人數，

and sends the data over the internet

透過網路把這資料傳輸

to the advanced data analysis software we created.

到我們建造的進階資料分析軟體。

The possible errors, like overcounting or double-stepping,

我們設計了干預方式，

were overcome using design interventions.

來克服過高估計 或反覆踩踏這類的可能錯誤。

The optimum breadth of the mat was determined to be 18 inches,

我們決定最理想的 墊子寬度是 18 英吋，

after we tested many different versions

這是在我們測試了許多不同版本

and observed the average stride length of a person.

並觀察人的平均步距之後決定的。

Otherwise, people might step over the sensor.

不然，人們可能會踩超過感測器。

We started with a proof of concept built in three days,

我們一開始先要證明 這個概念，在三天內

made out of cardboard and aluminum foil.

用厚紙板和鋁箔紙 打造出測試用的樣品。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It worked, for real.

它有用，是真的。

We built another one with aluminum composite panels

我們又用鋁複合板以及壓電板

and piezoelectric plates,

再打造了一個樣品，

which are plates that generate a small pulse of electricity under pressure.

壓電板在受到壓力時 會產生出小的電脈衝。

We tested this at 30 different pilots in public,

我們在三十個地點測試了 這個設計，包括公開場所、

in crowded restaurants, in malls, in temples, etc.,

擁擠的餐廳、購物中心、廟宇等等，

to see how people reacted.

看看人們的反應如何。

And people let us run these pilots

大家都讓我們做這些測試，

because they were excited to see localites work on problems for the city.

因為他們很興奮能夠看到 當地有人要為城市解決問題。

I was 15 and my team members were in their early 20s.

我那時十五歲，我的 團隊成員都二十歲出頭。

When the sensors were colored,

當感測器加上了顏色，

people would get scared and would ask us questions like,

人們會緊張，問我們像這樣的問題：

"Will I get electrocuted if I step on this?"

「如果我踩上去會被電擊嗎？」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Or, if it was very obvious that it was an electronic sensor on the ground,

或者，如果很明顯 地上有個電子感測器，

they would just jump over it.

他們就會跳過它。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So we decided to design a cover for the sensor

所以我們決定要為感測器做個罩子，

so that people don't have to worry what it is on the ground.

這樣人們就不用擔心 地上的那個東西是什麼。

So after some experimentation,

經過一些實驗之後，

we decided to use an industrial sensor,

我們決定使用工業用感測器，

used as a safety trigger in hazardous areas

在危險區域用的安全觸發器

as the sensor,

來當感測器，

and a black neoprene rubber sheet

用黑色合成橡膠片

as the cover.

來當外罩。

Now, another added benefit of using black rubber

用黑色橡膠的額外好處是

was that dust naturally accumulates over the surface,

塵土會自然在表面上堆積，

eventually camouflaging it with the ground.

最終會成為它的保護色， 看來就像地板。

We also had to make sure that the sensor is no higher than 12 millimeters.

我們也得要確保感測器 不能高過 12 公釐。

Otherwise, people might trip over it,

不然可能會絆倒人，

which in itself would cause stampedes.

結果是它造成人被踩死。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We don't want that.

我們不希望這樣。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So we were able to design a sensor which was only 10 millimeters thick.

所以，我們設計了一個 感測器，厚度只有 10 公釐。

Now the data is sent to the server in real time,

資料會被即時傳送到伺服器，

and a heat map is plotted,

畫出熱區圖，

taking into account all the active devices on the ground.

考量所有在地上的已啟動裝置。

The authorities could be alerted if the crowd movement slowed down

如果群眾的移動速度慢下來， 或是群眾密度超過希望的標準，

or if the crowd density moved beyond a desired threshold.

當權機關就會收到警訊。

We installed five of these mats in the Nashik Kumbh Mela 2015,

我們在 2015 年的納西克 大壺節安裝了五個墊子，

and counted over half a million people

計算到的人數

在十八小時內就有五十萬人，

in 18 hours,

ensuring that the data was available in real time at various checkpoints,

確保可以從各檢查站即時取得資料，

ensuring a safe flow of people.

確保人流的安全。

Now, this system, eventually, with other innovations,

最終，就是這個系統和其他的創新

is what helped prevent stampedes altogether at that festival.

一起協助避免了在 該節慶中踩死人的意外。

The code used by Ashioto during Kumbh Mela

在大壺節中所使用的 Ashioto 程式碼，

will soon be made publicly available, free to use for anyone.

很快就會被公開， 提供大家免費使用。

I would be glad if someone used this code

我很希望看到有人能用這程式碼

to make many more gatherings safer.

來讓更多聚會變得更安全。

Having succeeded at Kumbh Mela

在大壺節的成功鼓舞了我，

has inspired me to help others who may also suffer from stampedes.

讓我想要協助其他可能 受到蜂湧群眾所苦的人。

The design of the system makes it adaptable

這個系統的設計，

幾乎可以適用在任何活動上，

to pretty much any event

that involves an organized gathering of people.

有組織的人類聚會相關活動都可以。

And my new dream is to improve, adapt and deploy the system

而我的新夢想是要改善、 改造，並部署這個系統，

all over the world to prevent loss of life and ensure a safe flow of people,

推行到全世界，來預防 人命損失，確保人流安全，

because every human soul is precious,

因為每個人的生命都是可貴的，

whether at concerts or sporting events,

不論是在演唱會或運動比賽、

the Maha Kumbh Mela in Allahabad,

安拉阿巴德的大壺節、

the Hajj in Mecca,

麥加的朝聖、

the Shia procession to Karbala

前往卡爾巴拉的什葉遊行，

or at the Vatican City.

或梵蒂岡。

So what do you all think, can we do it?

你們怎麼想？我們能辦得到嗎？

(Audience) Yes!

（觀眾）能！

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Cheers)

（歡呼）

(Applause)

（掌聲）