请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Danyang Luo
校对人员: Yinchun Rui
00:12
I just want to share with you
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想与你们分享
00:14
what I have been experiencing
over the last five years
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在过去的五年中
00:16
in having the great privilege of traveling
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有幸去到
00:19
to many of the poorest
countries in the world.
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许多贫困国家的经历
00:21
This scene is one
I see all the time everywhere,
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在各地都可以见到这一幕
00:25
and these young children
are looking at a smartphone,
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这些年幼的孩子正盯着一部智能手机
00:28
and the smartphone is having a huge impact
in even the poorest countries.
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即使是在最贫困的国家中,智能手机也有极大的影响力
00:32
I said to my team, you know,
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我对我的团队说,你们知道吗?
00:34
what I see is a rise in aspirations
all over the world.
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我看到的是世界各地愈发强烈的愿望
00:38
In fact, it seems to me
that there's a convergence of aspirations.
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实际上,在我看来,人们的愿望正在趋于统一
00:42
And I asked a team of economists
to actually look into this.
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我与一众经济学家仔细研究了这一现象
00:46
Is this true?
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这是事实吗?
00:47
Are aspirations converging
all around the world?
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世界各地的愿望正在统一?
00:50
So they looked at things like Gallup polls
about satisfaction in life
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因此,他们安排了类似盖洛普民意测验的测试来调查人们的生活满意度
00:54
and what they learned was
that if you have access to the internet,
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研究发现,如果可以访问互联网
00:59
your satisfaction goes up.
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人们的满意度就会有所提高
01:01
But another thing happens
that's very important:
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与此同时,另一件重要的事情是:
01:04
your reference income,
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你的参考收入
01:05
the income to which you compare your own,
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与你自身收入相对比的收入
01:08
also goes up.
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也在提高
01:10
Now, if the reference income
of a nation, for example,
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如果一个国家的参考收入相比于外界提高了10%
01:13
goes up 10 percent
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01:14
by comparing themselves to the outside,
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那么人均收入至少要提高5%才能维持同样的满意度
01:17
then on average,
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01:19
people's own incomes
have to go up at least five percent
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01:22
to maintain the same
level of satisfaction.
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01:25
But when you get down
into the lower percentiles of income,
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不过,当你的收入较低时
01:29
your income has to go up much more
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你的收入需要提高更多
01:31
if the reference income
goes up 10 percent,
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当参考收入提高10%时
01:33
something like 20 percent.
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你的收入可能需要提高20%
01:35
And so with this rise of aspirations,
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随着人们愿望加强
01:37
the fundamental question is:
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根本问题在于
01:39
Are we going to have a situation
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我们是否能提供一个大环境
01:40
where aspirations
are linked to opportunity
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愿望与机遇并存
01:44
and you get dynamism and economic growth,
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是否能充满活力,维持经济增长
01:46
like that which happened
in the country I was born in, in Korea?
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就像我的祖国那样,像在韩国?
01:50
Or are aspirations
going to meet frustration?
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或者说,愿望是否会受挫?
01:55
This is a real concern,
because between 2012 and 2015,
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这是我所关心的。在2012至2015年期间
02:00
terrorism incidents
increased by 74 percent.
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恐怖袭击事件增加了74%
02:03
The number of deaths from terrorism
went up 150 percent.
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受害人数上升了150%
02:07
Right now, two billion people
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现在,有二十亿人口
02:09
live in conditions
of fragility, conflict, violence,
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生活在支离破碎,充满暴力的环境中
02:11
and by 2030, more than 60 percent
of the world's poor
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直至2030年,全球将有超过60%的贫困人民
02:17
will live in these situations
of fragility, conflict and violence.
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生活于这样的水深火热之中
02:21
And so what do we do
about meeting these aspirations?
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我们怎么做才能实现这些愿望?
02:24
Are there new ways of thinking
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是否有新的思维方式
02:26
about how we can rise
to meet these aspirations?
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指引我们如何提高以实现愿望?
02:29
Because if we don't,
I'm extremely worried.
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如果不这样做,我十分担心
02:32
Aspirations are rising as never before
because of access to the internet.
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因为互联网的普及,愿望的增强前所未有
02:36
Everyone knows how everyone else lives.
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每个人都知道其他人是怎样生活的
02:39
Has our ability to meet those aspirations
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我们的能力是否足以满足这些愿望
02:41
risen as well?
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即使它们愈发强烈?
02:43
And just to get at the details of this,
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为了了解更多的细节
02:45
I want to share with you
my own personal story.
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我想和你们分享我自己的故事
02:47
This is not my mother,
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这不是我的母亲
02:49
but during the Korean War,
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但在朝鲜战争期间
02:51
my mother literally took her own sister,
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我的母亲也是这样带着她的妹妹
02:54
her younger sister, on her back,
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背着她
02:55
and walked at least part of the way
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至少走了一长段路
02:58
to escape Seoul during the Korean War.
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逃离首尔
03:02
Now, through a series of miracles,
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经过一系列奇迹
03:05
my mother and father both got
scholarships to go to New York City.
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我的父母都获得了去纽约的奖学金
03:09
They actually met in New York City
and got married in New York City.
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他们在纽约相遇,结婚
03:13
My father, too, was a refugee.
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我的父亲也是一名难民
03:16
At the age of 19, he left his family
in the northern part of the country,
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19岁那年,他离开了朝鲜的家
03:20
escaped through the border
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逃离了边境
03:22
and never saw his family again.
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再也没有见过他的家人
03:24
Now, when they were married
and living in New York,
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他们在纽约结婚并定居
03:27
my father was a waiter
at Patricia Murphy's restaurant.
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我的父亲曾是帕特丽夏·墨菲酒店的服务员
03:30
Their aspirations went up.
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他们有着伟大的梦想
03:32
They understood what it was like
to live in a place like New York City
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他们知道在纽约这样的城市的生活是怎样的
03:36
in the 1950s.
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即使是在20世纪50年代
03:38
Well, my brother was born
and they came back to Korea,
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我的哥哥出生后,他们回到了韩国
03:42
and we had what I remember
as kind of an idyllic life,
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我们开始了记忆中的田园生活
03:46
but what was happening
in Korea at that time
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但那时的韩国是怎样的
03:49
was the country was one
of the poorest in the world
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它是世上最贫困的国家之一
03:52
and there was political upheaval.
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并且政治动荡
03:54
There were demonstrations just down
the street from our house all the time,
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我家门前的街道常年有示威游行
03:57
students protesting
against the military government.
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学生们和军阀政府水火不容
04:02
And at the time,
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那时
04:04
the aspirations of the World Bank Group,
the organization I lead now,
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世界银行集团,我现在所领导的这一机构
04:07
were extremely low for Korea.
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对韩国抱有极低的期望
04:10
Their idea was that Korea would
find it difficult without foreign aid
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他们认为,没有外国援助
04:14
to provide its people with more
than the bare necessities of life.
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韩国将很难维持它的子民的基本生活
04:19
So the situation is
Korea is in a tough position,
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韩国正处于水深火热中
04:22
my parents have seen
what life is like in the United States.
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而我的父母已经见过了美国的生活是怎样的
04:25
They got married there.
My brother was born there.
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他们在那里结婚,我的哥哥在那里出生
04:28
And they felt that in order
to give us an opportunity
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他们意识到,
04:31
to reach their aspirations for us,
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为了给我们提供实现梦想的机会
04:34
we had to go and come back
to the United States.
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我们必须离开,回到美国
04:36
Now, we came back.
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现在,我们回来了
04:38
First we went to Dallas.
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最初,我们去到了达拉斯
04:39
My father did his dental degree
all over again.
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在那里,我的父亲重新考取了牙医学士学位
04:42
And then we ended up
moving to Iowa, of all places.
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之后我们搬去了爱荷华州
04:46
We grew up in Iowa.
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我在那儿长大
04:47
And in Iowa, we went
through the whole course.
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我在爱荷华州完成了所有课程的学习
04:50
I went to high school, I went to college.
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高中,大学
04:52
And then one day,
something that I'll never forget,
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有一天,我想我永不会忘记
04:57
my father picked me up
after my sophomore year in college,
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我的父亲接到我,那时大二刚结束
05:02
and he was driving me home,
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他载我回家
05:03
and he said, "Jim,
what are your aspirations?
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他问我:“Jim,你的梦想是什么?
05:06
What do you want to study?
What do you want to do?"
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你想学什么?又想做些什么?”
05:08
And I said, "Dad," --
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我回答到:“爸爸......”
05:09
My mother actually was a philosopher,
and had filled us with ideas
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我的母亲是一名哲学家
05:12
about protest and social justice,
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她向我们传递了很多抗议和社会公正的观点
05:15
and I said, "Dad, I'm going to study
political science and philosophy,
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我说:“父亲,我想学政治科学与哲学
05:19
and I'm going to become
part of a political movement."
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我想参与政治活动”
05:22
My father, the Korean dentist,
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我的父亲,一位韩国牙医
05:23
slowly pulled the car
over to the side of the road --
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慢慢地把车停在了路边
05:26
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:28
He looked back at me, and he said,
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他转过头来看着我说:
05:29
"Jim, you finish your medical residency,
you can study anything you want."
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“Jim,你修完住院医师的课程后,你可以学任何你想学的”
05:33
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:34
Now, I've told this story
to a mostly Asian audience before.
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我向很多亚洲观众讲过这个故事
05:39
Nobody laughs. They just shake their head.
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没有人笑,他们只是摇摇头
05:42
Of course.
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当然了
05:43
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:45
(Applause)
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(掌声)
05:47
So, tragically,
my father died at a young age,
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不幸的是,我父亲很年轻时就去世了
05:52
30 years ago at the age of 57,
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30年前,他年仅57岁
05:54
what happens to be how old I am right now,
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到了我现在这个年龄会发生什么
05:57
and when he died in the middle
of my medical and graduate studies --
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他在我学医的研究生期间去世了
06:00
You see, I actually got around it
by doing medicine and anthropology.
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你们看,我确乎通过学习医学和人类学实现了它
06:03
I studied both of them in graduate school.
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我在研究生期间学习了它们
06:08
But then right about that time,
I met these two people,
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在那个时候,我遇到了这两个人
06:11
Ophelia Dahl and Paul Farmer.
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Ophelia Dahl和Paul Farmer
06:13
And Paul and I were in the same program.
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Paul和我在同一个团队里
06:15
We were studying medicine
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我们一起学了医学
06:17
and at the same time
getting our PhD's in anthropology.
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并同时获得了人类学的博士学位
06:20
And we began to ask
some pretty fundamental questions.
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我们开始探讨一些根本问题
06:23
For people who have the great privilege
of studying medicine and anthropology --
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对那些有幸学习医学和人类学的人而言
06:27
I had come from parents who were refugees.
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我的父母都是难民
06:30
Paul grew up literally
in a bus in a swamp in Florida.
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Paul在佛罗里达州的一片沼泽地里的一辆公共汽车上长大
06:34
He liked to call himself "white trash."
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他喜欢称自己为“白色垃圾”
06:37
And so we had this opportunity
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我们有了这次机会
06:40
and we said,
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我们想
06:41
what is it that we need to do?
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我们需要做些什么
06:42
Given our ridiculously
elaborate educations,
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我们接受了荒谬的精英教育
06:45
what is the nature
of our responsibility to the world?
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那我们对社会所需承担的责任的本质是什么?
06:48
And we decided that we needed
to start an organization.
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我们决定组建一个组织
06:52
It's called Partners in Health.
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它被称为健康伙伴
06:53
And by the way,
there's a movie made about that.
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顺便说说,有一部电影以它为原型展开
06:56
(Applause)
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(掌声)
06:58
There's a movie
that was just a brilliant movie
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他们拍摄了一部很精彩的电影
07:01
they made about it
called "Bending the Arc."
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叫做《Bending the Arc》
07:03
It launched at Sundance this past January.
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一月在圣丹斯国际电影节上映
07:05
Jeff Skoll is here.
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Jeff Skoll就在这里
07:06
Jeff is one of the ones
who made it happen.
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Jeff是促成其发生的人员之一
07:09
And we began to think
about what it would take for us
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之后,我们开始思考
07:14
to actually have our aspirations
reach the level
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我们究竟想做什么?
07:18
of some of the poorest
communities in the world.
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对于世界上那些最贫穷的社区而言
07:20
This is my very first visit
to Haiti in 1988,
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这是1988年我第一次访问海地
07:23
and in 1988, we elaborated
a sort of mission statement,
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1988年,我们制定了一个使命宣言
07:29
which is we are going to make
a preferential option for the poor
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表明我们将会进行穷人优先的抉择
07:33
in health.
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在医疗健康上
07:34
Now, it took us a long time, and we
were graduate students in anthropology.
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现在,经过了很长时间,我们攻读完人类学的研究生
07:37
We were reading up one side of Marx
and down the other.
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我们了解了马克思的一面,也进行了延伸阅读
07:40
Habermas. Fernand Braudel.
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哈贝马斯,费尔南·布罗代尔
07:42
We were reading everything
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我们读尽每一本书
07:44
and we had to come to a conclusion
of how are we going to structure our work?
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我们必须得出结论,我们将如何安排我们的工作?
07:48
So "O for the P," we called it,
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“O for the P”,我们这样称呼它
07:50
a preferential option for the poor.
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穷人优先
07:53
The most important thing
about a preferential option for the poor
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穷人优先最重要的一点在于
07:56
is what it's not.
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它不是
07:58
It's not a preferential option
for your own sense of heroism.
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不是以你的个人英雄主义优先
08:02
It's not a preferential option
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不是以你自己如何帮助穷人脱贫的想法优先
08:03
for your own idea about
how to lift the poor out of poverty.
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08:07
It's not a preferential option
for your own organization.
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不是以您自己的组织优先
08:10
And the hardest of all,
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最重要的是
08:12
it's not a preferential option
for your poor.
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不是以你们的贫穷优先
08:15
It's a preferential option for the poor.
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它是以穷人们优先
08:18
So what do you do?
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那么,你会做些什么?
08:19
Well, Haiti, we started building --
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我们开始建设海地
08:23
Everyone told us, the cost-effective thing
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每个人都告诉我们,为了节约成本
08:25
is just focus on vaccination
and maybe a feeding program.
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我们可以专注于疫苗接种或是供膳计划
08:29
But what the Haitians wanted
was a hospital.
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但海地想要的是一所医院
08:32
They wanted schools.
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是学校
08:34
They wanted to provide their children
with the opportunities
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是为孩子提供他们所听到的学习机会
08:36
that they'd been hearing about
from others, relatives, for example,
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从其它人,亲戚
08:41
who had gone to the United States.
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那些去过美国的人那儿听到的机会
08:42
They wanted the same kinds
of opportunities as my parents did.
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他们想要和我父母一样的机会
08:47
I recognized them.
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我了解他们
08:49
And so that's what we did.
We built hospitals.
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所以我们做了这些,我们修建了学校
08:52
We provided education.
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提供教育
08:54
And we did everything we could
to try to give them opportunities.
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我们竭尽全力为他们提供机会
08:57
Now, my experience really became intense
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我的感受越来越强烈
09:00
at Partners in Health
in this community, Carabayllo,
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这一社区的健康伙伴,在卡拉瓦伊略区
09:03
in the northern slums of Lima, Peru.
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在秘鲁利马北部的贫民窟
09:08
And in this community,
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在这个社区
09:09
we started out by really just going
to people's homes and talking to people,
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我们开始走访
09:12
and we discovered an outbreak, an epidemic
of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.
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我们发现了一场疫情,多耐药结核病的流行
09:18
This is Melquiades.
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这位是Melquiades
09:19
Melquiades was a patient at that time,
he was about 18 years old,
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Melquiades当时是一位病人,大约18岁
09:24
and he had a very difficult form
of drug-resistant tuberculosis.
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他患有难以治疗的耐药性结核病
09:29
All of the gurus in the world,
the global health gurus,
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全球所有健康专家都说
09:31
said it is not cost-effective
to treat drug-resistant tuberculosis.
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治疗耐药性结核病并不划算
09:36
It's too complicated. It's too expensive.
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它太复杂了,也太昂贵。
09:38
You just can't do it. It can't be done.
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你不能做到,这不可能完成
09:41
And in addition,
they were getting angry at us,
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除此之外,他们对我们大为光火
09:44
because the implication was
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因为这意味着
09:46
if it could be done,
we would have done it.
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如果可以做到,早就该完成了。
09:48
Who do you think you are?
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你以为你是谁?
09:50
And the people that we fought with
were the World Health Organization
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我们与世界卫生组织为敌
09:53
and probably the organization
we fought with most
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也许更多的是与世界银行集团相对抗
09:56
was the World Bank Group.
204
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09:58
Now, we did everything we could
205
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现在,我们竭尽全力
10:02
to convince Melquiades
to take his medicines,
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说服Melquiades服药
10:05
because it's really hard,
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这真的很难
10:06
and not once during the time of treatment
did Melquiades's family ever say,
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在治疗期间,他的家人不止一次说过,
10:10
"Hey, you know, Melquiades
is just not cost-effective.
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3216
“你知道吗,治疗Melquiades并不划算,
10:13
Why don't you go on
and treat somebody else?"
210
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你们为什么不去治疗其他人”
10:15
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:17
I hadn't seen Melquiades
for about 10 years
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我已经有10年没有见过Melquiades了
10:19
and when we had
our annual meetings in Lima, Peru
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当我们在秘鲁利马举行年度会议时
10:22
a couple of years ago,
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几年前
10:24
the filmmakers found him
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电影制片人找到了他
10:26
and here is us getting together.
216
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这是我们聚在一起
10:28
(Applause)
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(掌声)
10:35
He has become a bit of a media star
because he goes to the film openings,
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他已经成为了一个媒体明星,他去了电影首映礼
10:38
and he knows how to work an audience now.
219
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他现在已经知道如何驾驭观众了
10:41
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:43
But as soon as we won --
221
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但我们取得胜利后
10:45
We did win. We won the argument.
222
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1816
我们确实获胜了,我们赢得了争论
10:47
You should treat
multidrug-resistant tuberculosis --
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你应当治疗多耐药结核病
10:49
we heard the same arguments
in the early 2000s about HIV.
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在二十一世纪初,我们听到了同样的争论,关于艾滋
10:53
All of the leading global health
people in the world said
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全球所有的健康领头人都说
10:56
it is impossible
to treat HIV in poor countries.
226
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在贫困国家不可能进行艾滋病毒的治疗
11:00
Too expensive, too complicated,
you can't do it.
227
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太昂贵了,太复杂了,你不可能做到
11:02
Compared to drug-resistant TB treatment,
228
662620
1936
与耐药性结核病的治疗相比
11:04
it's actually easier.
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664580
1200
实际上它更简单
11:06
And we were seeing patients like this.
230
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我们经常看到这样的病人
11:09
Joseph Jeune.
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Joseph Jeune
11:10
Joseph Jeune also never mentioned
that he was not cost-effective.
232
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3416
Joseph Jeune也从不提起治疗他是不划算的
11:14
A few months of medicines,
and this is what he looked like.
233
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2816
经过几个月的药物治疗,他现在是这样的
11:17
(Applause)
234
677020
2416
(掌声)
11:19
We call that the Lazarus Effect
of HIV treatment.
235
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我们称之为艾滋治疗的拉撒路效应
11:21
Joseline came to us looking like this.
236
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2296
Joseline来找我们时是这样的
11:24
This is what she looked like
a few months later.
237
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2256
这是几个月后她的模样
11:26
(Applause)
238
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2696
(掌声)
11:29
Now, our argument, our battle, we thought,
239
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3576
现在,我们的争论,我们的斗争,我想
11:32
was with the organizations
that kept saying it's not cost-effective.
240
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3976
主要在于那些认为这不划算的机构
11:36
We were saying, no,
241
696900
1416
我们在说,不
11:38
preferential option for the poor
requires us to raise our aspirations
242
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穷人优先要求我们提高自己的愿望
11:42
to meet those of the poor for themselves.
243
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1953
以满足穷人的愿望
11:44
And they said, well, that's a nice thought
but it's just not cost-effective.
244
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3639
他们会说,这是个不错的想法,但不划算
11:47
So in the nerdy way
that we have operated Partners in Health,
245
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6536
像个书呆子一样,我们坚持开创了健康伙伴
11:54
we wrote a book against,
basically, the World Bank.
246
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我们写了一本书,来与世界银行相抗衡
11:57
It says that because the World Bank
247
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2616
里面提到,由于世界银行
11:59
has focused so much
on just economic growth
248
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3856
过于关注经济发展
12:03
and said that governments
have to shrink their budgets
249
723700
3776
认为政府应该减少在健康,教育及社会福利方面的预算及开支
12:07
and reduce expenditures
in health, education and social welfare --
250
727500
4056
12:11
we thought that was fundamentally wrong.
251
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1976
我们认为这完全是错的
12:13
And we argued with the World Bank.
252
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1856
我们与世界银行争辩
12:15
And then a crazy thing happened.
253
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之后,一件疯狂的事情发生了
12:17
President Obama nominated me
to be President of the World Bank.
254
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总统奥巴马提名我担任世界银行行长
12:20
(Applause)
255
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(掌声)
12:26
Now, when I went to do the vetting process
with President Obama's team,
256
746780
4816
当我接受总统团队的审查时
12:31
they had a copy of "Dying For Growth,"
and they had read every page.
257
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3496
他们拿着一本《为增长而死》,他们读完了那本书
12:35
And I said, "OK, that's it, right?
258
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1736
我问道:“就是这样,不是吗?
12:36
You guys are going to drop me?"
259
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1536
你们会放弃我”
12:38
He goes, "Oh, no, no, it's OK."
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2416
他们却说:“不,没关系”
12:40
And I was nominated,
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1376
然后我被提名了
12:42
and I walked through the door
of the World Bank Group in July of 2012,
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4616
2012年7月,我步入了世界银行集团的大门
12:46
and that statement on the wall,
"Our dream is a world free of poverty."
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3376
墙上有这么一句话:“建立一个没有贫困的世界”
12:50
A few months after that,
we actually turned it into a goal:
264
770340
2976
几个月后,我们以此制定了一个目标
12:53
end extreme poverty by 2030,
265
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2616
2030年前终结极度贫困
12:55
boost shared prosperity.
266
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促进共享繁荣
12:57
That's what we do now
at the World Bank Group.
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2176
这是世界银行集团现在所做的
12:59
I feel like I have brought
the preferential option for the poor
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3976
我想我已经做到了穷人优先
13:03
to the World Bank Group.
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1376
在世界银行集团中
13:04
(Applause)
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4480
(掌声)
13:10
But this is TED,
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但是,这里是TED
13:11
and so I want to share
with you some concerns,
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我想和你们分享一些我的担忧
13:14
and then make a proposal.
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2160
并提出一些建议
13:16
The Fourth Industrial Revolution,
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1616
我们正在经历第四次工业革命
13:18
now, you guys know
so much better than I do,
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2096
你们比我更清楚
13:20
but here's the thing that concerns me.
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不过这正是我的担忧所在
13:22
What we hear about is job loss.
You've all heard that.
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失业充斥在我们耳畔,你们都听过吧
13:25
Our own data suggest to us
that two thirds of all jobs,
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805060
2616
数据显示,由于自动化,发展中国家现有的三分之二的工作将不复存在
13:27
currently existing jobs
in developing countries,
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807700
2239
13:29
will be lost because of automation.
280
809963
1713
13:31
Now, you've got to make up for those jobs.
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2136
现在,我们需要的是弥补这些工作的空缺
13:33
Now, one of the ways
to make up for those jobs
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弥补的方式之一
13:36
is to turn community health workers
into a formal labor force.
283
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3656
是将社区健康工作者划为正式工
13:39
That's what we want to do.
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这是我们想做的
13:41
(Applause)
285
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1256
(掌声)
13:42
We think the numbers will work out,
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2336
我们想这一问题终会得以解决
13:44
that as health outcomes get better
and as people have formal work,
287
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3776
随着健康成果改善,人们得到正式工作
13:48
we're going to be able to train them
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1736
我们可以通过培训
13:50
with the soft-skills training
that you add to it
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830220
2256
提高他们的软技能
13:52
to become workers
that will have a huge impact,
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3536
他们将会成为影响力巨大的工人
13:56
and that may be the one area
that grows the most.
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3376
这一领域也将快速发展
13:59
But here's the other thing
that bothers me:
292
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2576
还有另一件事困扰着我
14:02
right now it seems pretty clear to me
that the jobs of the future
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3896
我们清楚地知道
14:05
will be more digitally demanding,
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1856
未来的工作将更数字化
14:07
and there is a crisis
in childhood stunting.
295
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3936
儿童发育迟缓将是一场危机
14:11
So these are photos from Charles Nelson,
who shared these with us
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3576
这是在哈佛医学院的Charles Nelson与我们分享的照片
14:15
from Harvard Medical School.
297
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1456
14:16
And what these photos show
on the one side, on the left side,
298
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4776
这些照片的左边是
14:21
is a three-month-old who has been stunted:
299
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4416
一个三个月大的发育迟缓的婴儿
14:26
not adequate nutrition,
not adequate stimulation.
300
866140
2536
营养不足,刺激不足
14:28
And on the other side,
of course, is a normal child,
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2576
另一边,是一个正常的孩子
14:31
and the normal child
has all of these neuronal connections.
302
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2856
大脑有全部的神经元连接
14:34
Now, the neuronal connections
are important,
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2456
神经元连接十分重要
14:36
because that is
the definition of human capital.
304
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3216
我们基于它来定义人类行为能力
14:39
Now, we know that we
can reduce these rates.
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3696
现在,我们知道我们可以降低这一比率
14:43
We can reduce these rates
of childhood stunting quickly,
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3376
我们可以快速降低儿童发育迟缓率
14:47
but if we don't, India, for example,
with 38 percent childhood stunting,
307
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4456
如果不这样做,在印度,就将有38%的儿童发育迟缓
14:51
how are they going to compete
in the economy of the future
308
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2736
他们如何在未来的经济中竞争
14:54
if 40 percent of their future workers
cannot achieve educationally
309
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5856
如果40%的未来工人不能受到教育
15:00
and certainly we worry
about achieving economically
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3736
我们当然也担心有助于国家全面发展的经济发展方式
15:03
in a way that will help
the country as a whole grow.
311
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3240
15:07
Now, what are we going to do?
312
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2616
我们现在要做些什么?
15:10
78 trillion dollars
is the size of the global economy.
313
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3856
全球经济的规模达78万亿美元
15:14
8.55 trillion dollars are sitting
in negative interest rate bonds.
314
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3896
其中有价值8.55万亿美元的负利率债券
15:18
That means that you give
the German central bank your money
315
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4456
这意味着你把钱存进德国中央银行
15:22
and then you pay them to keep your money.
316
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2496
然后你付款让他们替你保管
15:25
That's a negative interest rate bond.
317
925140
1816
这就是负利率债券
15:26
24.4 trillion dollars
in very low-earning government bonds.
318
926980
3176
有价值24.4万亿的低收入政府债券
15:30
And 8 trillion literally sitting
in the hands of rich people
319
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5216
富人们坐拥差不多8万亿
15:35
under their very large mattresses.
320
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1960
15:37
What we are trying to do
is now use our own tools --
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3936
我们正在尝试借助我们自己的知识
15:41
and just to get nerdy for a second,
322
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1696
再次像书呆子一样
15:43
we're talking about
first-loss risk debt instruments,
323
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2496
我们谈论着一级风险债务工具
15:46
we're talking about derisking,
blended finance,
324
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2576
谈论着冒险,混合基金
15:48
we're talking about
political risk insurance,
325
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2496
我们谈论着政治风险保险
15:51
credit enhancement --
326
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1216
信用增级
15:52
all these things that I've now learned
at the World Bank Group
327
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2936
我在世界银行集团所学到的这一切
15:55
that rich people use every single day
to make themselves richer,
328
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4136
富人们每天凭借它们变得更加富有
15:59
but we haven't used aggressively enough
on behalf of the poor
329
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3736
但我们还没有积极地代表穷人
16:03
to bring this capital in.
330
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来筹集资金
16:04
(Applause)
331
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2840
(掌声)
16:12
So does this work?
332
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2136
这有用吗?
16:14
Can you actually bring
private-sector players into a country
333
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4816
你真的能把私营者引入一个国家
16:19
and really make things work?
334
979100
1376
让事情发挥作用吗?
16:20
Well, we've done it a couple of times.
335
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1856
我们尝试了几次
16:22
This is Zambia, Scaling Solar.
336
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这是在赞比亚,太阳能的规模化
16:24
It's a box-set solution
from the World Bank
337
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2176
这是世界银行提出的一套解决方案
16:26
where we come in
and we do all the things you need
338
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2416
我们尽全力,做所有你需要的事情
16:29
to attract private-sector investors.
339
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1856
来吸引私营投资者
16:31
And in this case, Zambia went
from having a cost of electricity
340
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4576
这一案例中,赞比亚的电费刚开始是
16:35
at 25 cents a kilowatt-hour,
341
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1960
每千瓦时25美分
16:38
and by just doing simple things,
doing the auction,
342
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3736
通过一些简单的操作,比如拍卖
16:42
changing some policies,
343
1002020
1496
改变政策
16:43
we were able to bring the cost down.
344
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2976
我们能够降低成本
16:46
Lowest bid,
345
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1216
最低价
16:47
25 cents a kilowatt-hour for Zambia?
346
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2456
每千瓦时25美分?
16:50
The lowest bid was 4.7 cents
a kilowatt-hour. It's possible.
347
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4176
最低价是每千瓦时4.7美分,这是可能的
16:54
(Applause)
348
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2136
(掌声)
16:56
But here's my proposal for you.
349
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1936
以下是我对你们的建议
16:58
This is from a group called Zipline,
350
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1896
这是一家名为Zipline的公司
17:00
a cool company, and they
literally are rocket scientists.
351
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2856
一家很棒的公司,他们可以说是火箭专家
17:03
They figured out
how to use drones in Rwanda.
352
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2416
他们发现了如何在卢旺达运用无人机
17:05
This is me launching a drone in Rwanda
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这是我在卢旺达操纵一架无人机
17:08
that delivers blood
anywhere in the country
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它可以在一个小时内把血液送到城市的任何地方
17:11
in less than an hour.
355
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17:12
So we save lives,
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我们拯救了生命
17:14
this program saved lives --
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这一计划拯救了生命
17:15
(Applause)
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(掌声)
17:16
This program made money for Zipline
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这一计划为Zipline盈利
17:18
and this program saved
huge amounts of money for Rwanda.
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也为卢旺达节约了一大笔钱
17:22
That's what we need,
and we need that from all of you.
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这就是我们所需要的,也是我们对你们的期盼
17:25
I'm asking you, carve out
a little bit of time in your brains
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想要你们,分出一部分时间想想
17:28
to think about the technology
that you work on,
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你所掌握的技术
17:31
the companies that you start,
the design that you do.
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你开创的公司,你所做的设计
17:34
Think a little bit and work with us
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想一想,然后和我们一起合作
17:36
to see if we can come up with these kinds
of extraordinary win-win solutions.
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看我们是能得出其它这样非同寻常的双赢方案
17:41
I'm going to leave you
with one final story.
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要留给你们最后一个故事
17:44
I was in Tanzania,
and I was in a classroom.
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2296
在坦桑尼亚,我去到了一间教室
17:47
This is me with a classroom
of 11-year-olds.
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3040
这是我和一群十一岁大的孩子们在一起
17:51
And I asked them, as I always do,
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1616
我像往常一样问他们:
17:52
"What do you want to be when you grow up?"
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2056
“你们长大后想做什么?”
17:55
Two raised their hands and said,
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1736
两个孩子举手答到
17:56
"I want to be President
of the World Bank."
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2016
“我想成为世界银行行长”
17:58
(Laughter)
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1816
(笑声)
18:00
And just like you, my own team
and their teachers laughed.
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3416
和你们一样,我的团队和他们的老师也笑了
18:04
But then I stopped them.
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1536
但我阻止了他们
18:05
I said, "Look, I want to tell you a story.
377
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2040
我说“听着,我想给你们讲一个故事”
18:08
When I was born in South Korea,
this is what it looked like.
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3480
当我在韩国出生时,它是这样的模样
18:13
This is where I came from.
379
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1240
这就是我的家乡
18:15
And when I was three years old,
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1880
当我三岁时
18:18
in preschool,
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1200
在学前班
18:20
I don't think that George David Woods,
the President of the World Bank,
382
1100140
3376
我从没想过世界银行行长George David Woods
18:23
if he had visited Korea on that day
and come to my classroom,
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3576
如果某天他拜访韩国,来到我的教室
18:27
that he would have thought
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1336
他是否会想到
18:28
that the future President
of the World Bank
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2016
未来的世界银行行长就在这间教室里
18:30
was sitting in that classroom.
386
1110540
1456
18:32
Don't let anyone ever tell you
387
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2296
不要让其他人告诉你
18:34
that you cannot be
President of the World Bank."
388
1114340
2776
你不能成为世界银行行长
18:37
Now -- thank you.
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1216
谢谢你们
18:38
(Applause)
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1576
(掌声)
18:39
Let me leave you with one thought.
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1640
让我给你们留下一个想法
18:42
I came from a country
that was the poorest in the world.
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2656
我来自一个曾是世界上最贫穷的国家
18:44
I'm President of the World Bank.
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1576
我现在是世界银行行长
18:46
I cannot and I will not
pull up the ladder behind me.
394
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3176
我不能,也不会拉起我身后的梯子
18:49
This is urgent.
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1536
现在十分迫切
18:51
Aspirations are going up.
396
1131100
1496
愿望变得愈发强烈
18:52
Everywhere aspirations are going up.
397
1132620
2296
到处都有强烈的希冀
18:54
You folks in this room, work with us.
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1134940
2616
在这间房间里的你们,和我们一起努力
18:57
We know that we can find
those Zipline-type solutions
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4016
我们知道我们能找到像Zipline这样的解决方案
19:01
and help the poor
leapfrog into a better world,
400
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3296
帮助穷人跨越到一个更好的世界
19:04
but it won't happen
until we work together.
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2600
这一切不会发生,除非我们一起努力
19:08
The future "you" --
and especially for your children --
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2736
未来的你们,尤其是对你们的孩子来说
19:10
the future you
403
1150820
1576
19:12
will depend on how much care
and compassion we bring
404
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2976
未来取决于我们为未来的“我们”提供了多少关爱和同情
19:15
to ensuring that the future "us"
provides equality of opportunity
405
1155420
4616
以确保世界上每个儿童都享有平等的机会
19:20
for every child in the world.
406
1160060
1416
19:21
Thank you very much.
407
1161500
1256
非常感谢你们
19:22
(Applause)
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1696
(掌声)
19:24
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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3056
谢谢!谢谢!谢谢!
19:27
(Applause)
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3080
(掌声)
19:32
Chris Anderson: You'd almost think
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Chris Anderson:你肯定会想
19:34
people are surprised
to hear a talk like this
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2136
人们听到世界银行行长这样的讲话会感到惊讶
19:36
from the President of the World Bank.
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1816
19:38
It's kind of cool.
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1216
这有点特别
19:39
I'd encourage you to even be
a little more specific on your proposal.
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3256
希望您可以再详细讲讲您的建议
19:43
There's many investors,
entrepreneurs in this room.
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4496
在座有很多的投资者,企业家
19:47
How will you partner with them?
What's your proposal?
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2496
你想怎么和他们合作?你的建议是什么?
19:50
Jim Yong Kim: Can I get nerdy
for just a second.
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2256
金墉:我可以再次像书呆子一样吗?
19:52
CA: Get nerdy. Absolutely.
JYK: So here's what we did.
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2576
CA:当然了
金墉:这是我们所做的,
19:54
Insurance companies never invest
in developing country infrastructure,
420
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3296
保险公司从不会投资发展中国家的基础设施
19:58
for example, because
they can't take the risk.
421
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2176
因为他们不愿为此承担风险
20:00
They're holding money
for people who pay for insurance.
422
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2616
他们为那些为支付保险费用的人存储资金
20:03
So what we did was a Swedish
International Development Association
423
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3136
在瑞典国际开发协会给了我们一小笔资金后
20:06
gave us a little bit of money,
424
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1456
20:07
we went out and raised a little bit
more money, a hundred million,
425
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3136
我们去筹集了更多的钱,一亿
20:10
and we took first loss,
meaning if this thing goes bad,
426
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2616
我们承担了最初的风险,这意味着,如果发展不顺
20:13
10 percent of the loss we'll just eat,
427
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1856
我们会承担10%的损失
20:15
and the rest of you will be safe.
428
1215460
1776
而剩下的你们都是安全的
20:17
And that created
a 90-percent chunk, tranche
429
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3736
但还有90%的部分
20:21
that was triple B, investment-grade,
so the insurance companies invested.
430
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3456
投资级别可达3B,所以保险公司选择了投资
20:24
So for us, what we're doing
is taking our public money
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4616
对我们而言,我们所做的就是利用公共资金冒险
20:29
and using it to derisk
specific instruments
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3536
开展具体建设
20:32
to bring people in from the outside.
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1736
从而从外引进人才
20:34
So all of you who are sitting
on trillions of dollars of cash,
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2936
坐拥数万亿美元现金的你们
20:37
come to us. Right?
435
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1216
会加入我们,对吗?
20:38
(Laughter)
436
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1016
(笑声)
20:39
CA: And what you're specifically
looking for are investment proposals
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3256
CA:你们所寻找的是提高发展中国家就业率的投资建议?
20:42
that create employment
in the developing world.
438
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2216
20:45
JYK: Absolutely. Absolutely.
439
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1376
金墉:是的,就是这样的
20:46
So these will be, for example,
in infrastructure that brings energy,
440
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3736
这些基础建设将包括
20:50
builds roads, bridges, ports.
441
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2456
引进能源、修建道路、桥梁、港口
20:52
These kinds of things
are necessary to create jobs,
442
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2736
这些是创造就业机会所必需的
20:55
but also what we're saying is
443
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2296
也是我们所谈论的
20:57
you may think that the technology
you're working on
444
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2416
你可能会认为你所掌握的技术
21:00
or the business that you're working on
445
1260380
1856
你所在的行业
21:02
may not have applications
in the developing world,
446
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3056
没有可能应用在发展中国家中
21:05
but look at Zipline.
447
1265340
1336
但看看Zipline
21:06
And that Zipline thing didn't happen
448
1266700
2016
它的成功不仅仅是因为技术的质量
21:08
just because of the quality
of the technology.
449
1268740
2176
21:10
It was because they engaged
with the Rwandans early
450
1270940
3176
更因为很早就和卢旺达合作
21:14
and used artificial intelligence --
451
1274140
1856
并且应用了人工智能
21:16
one thing, Rwanda has great broadband --
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2856
还有一件事,卢旺达早已遍布宽带
21:18
but these things fly
completely on their own.
453
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2856
-但这些东西完全靠他们自己完成
21:21
So we will help you do that.
We will make the introductions.
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2856
我们会帮你做到这些,我们可以引荐你
21:24
We will even provide financing.
We will help you do that.
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2696
甚至提供资金,我们会让你成功
21:27
CA: How much capital
is the World Bank willing to deploy
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2656
CA:世界银行愿意为此提供多少资金?
21:30
to back those kinds of efforts?
457
1290060
1536
21:31
JYK: Chris, you're always getting me
to try to do something like this.
458
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3296
金墉:“Chris,你总是让我做这样的事”
21:34
CA: I'm trying to get you in trouble.
JYK: So here's what we're going to do.
459
1294940
3576
CA:我在给你找麻烦
金墉:这正是我们要做的
21:38
We have 25 billion a year
that we're investing in poor countries,
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4736
我们每年有250亿美元投资到贫穷国家
21:43
the poorest countries.
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1303300
1216
最贫穷的国家
21:44
And as we invest
over the next three years,
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2056
正因为我们会在未来三年进行每年250亿美元的投资
21:46
25 billion a year,
463
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1416
21:48
we have got to think with you
464
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1856
我们需要和你们一起思考
21:49
about how to use that money
more effectively.
465
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2136
如何高效利用这笔资金
21:52
So I can't give you a specific number.
It depends on the quality of the ideas.
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3816
以我不能告诉你们具体的数目,这取决于项目的好坏
21:55
So bring us your ideas,
467
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1536
所以,带来你们的想法
21:57
and I don't think that financing
is going to be the problem.
468
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5160
资金不是问题
22:03
CA: All right, you heard it
from the man himself.
469
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2336
CA:好吧,这是他亲口说的
22:05
Jim, thanks so much.
JYK: Thank you. Thank you.
470
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2216
Jim,非常感谢
金墉:谢谢!谢谢!
22:07
(Applause)
471
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3400
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