How to transform apocalypse fatigue into action on global warming | Per Espen Stoknes

翻译人员: Bingxian Bai 校对人员: Echo Sun

How do we get people engaged in solving global warming?

我们如何才能让人们参与解决 全球变暖问题？

I'd like to start with running two short experiments with you all.

我想与你们一起， 以两个简短的实验作为开场。

So your task is to notice if you feel any difference as I speak.

你们的任务就是察觉自己 是否有不同的感受。

OK?

好吗？

Here we go.

我们开始吧。

We are seeing rising carbon dioxide levels,

我们见证着二氧化碳含量不断升高，

now about 410 ppms.

现在浓度是0.41‰ 。

To avoid the RCP 8.5 scenario,

为了避免出现典型浓度路径8.5的情景，

we need rapid decarbonization.

我们需要快速脱碳。

The global carbon budget

为了能有66%的可能性

for 66 percent likelihood to meet the two-degree target

能够达到全球升温低于2摄氏度的目标，

is approximately 800 gigatons.

全球碳预算大约是8000亿吨。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

OK, now let me try something else.

好吧，我试着从另一个角度说明。

We are heading for an uninhabitable earth:

我们正朝着一个不宜居住的地球发展：

monster storms,

猛烈的风暴、

killer floods,

泛滥的洪水、

devastating wildfires,

毁灭性的野火、

crazy heat waves that will cook us under a blazing sun.

烈日下炙烤着我们的汹涌热浪。

2017 is already so unexpectedly warm,

2017年已是如此出乎意料地温暖，

it's freaking out climate scientists.

使气候学家崩溃。

We have a three-year window to cut emissions, three years.

我们有三年的时间减排，三年。

If not, we will soon live in a boiling earth, a hellhole.

如果不这么做的话，我们很快将置身于 一个酷热的地球，如同一个地狱。

OK. So --

好吧。那么——

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now your task:

现在你们的任务：

How did these ways of speaking make you feel?

对于这些说法你们有什么感受？

The first, detached maybe or just confused?

第一种，冷漠或许只是困惑？

What's this guy talking about?

这个人在说什么？

The other, fearful or just numb?

另一种，感到害怕或者只是麻木？

So again, the question I asked:

所以，重申刚才我的问题：

How do we get people engaged in solving global warming?

怎样才能让人们参与解决 全球气候变暖问题？

And why don't these two ways of communicating work?

以及，为什么这两种传播方法不起作用？

You see, the biggest obstacle to dealing with climate disruptions

你们会发现，应对气候破坏最大的障碍

lies between your ears.

在于你们的耳朵。

Building on a rapidly growing body of psychology and social science,

基于心理学和社会科学的快速发展，

I spent years looking into the five inner defenses

我用了多年时间研究5种心理防御

that stop people from engaging.

这些防御阻止人们参与解决全球变暖问题。

When people hear news about the climate coming straight at them,

当人们听到与他们直接相关的气候新闻时，

the first defense comes up rapidly:

他们快速建立起第一种防御：

distance.

距离。

When we hear about the climate,

当我们听到有关气候的信息，

we hear about something far away in space --

我们听到了有关遥远太空的信息——

think Arctic ice, polar bears --

想到北极冰、北极熊——

far away in time -- think 2100.

遥远的时间——想到2100年。

It's huge and slow-moving -- think gigatons and centuries.

这是个庞大又缓慢的变化—— 几十亿吨和几个世纪。

So it's not here. It's not now.

所以，我们现在体会不到。

Since it feels so far away from me,

因为感觉到气候问题离自己很远，

it seems outside my circle of influence,

似乎不会影响到自己，

so I feel helpless about it.

所以觉得自己帮不上什么忙。

There's nothing I can do.

我什么忙也帮不上。

In our everyday lives,

在我们的日常生活中，

most of us prefer to think about nearer things,

大多数人更倾向于考虑身边的事情，

such as our jobs, our kids,

比如我们的工作、我们的孩子，

how many likes we get on Facebook.

我们在脸书上有多少个赞。

Now, that, that's real.

这是事实。

Next defense is doom.

第二种防御：灾难。

Climate change is usually framed

气候变化通常被视为

as a looming disaster,

一个正在逼近的灾难，

bringing losses, cost and sacrifice.

带来各种伤亡、损失和牺牲。

That makes us fearful.

让我们感到恐惧。

But after the first fear is gone,

但是当第一层恐惧褪去，

my brain soon wants to avoid this topic altogether.

我的大脑很快地想要彻底摆脱这个话题。

After 30 years of scary climate change communications,

在经历了30年可怕的关于 气候变化的话题之后，

more than 80 percent of media articles still use disaster framings,

超过80%的媒体文章依旧使用灾难这个定义，

but people habituate to and then --

但是人们已经习惯了，以至于——

desensitize

对这种频繁的报道

to doom overuse.

变得麻木。

So many of us are now suffering a kind of apocalypse fatigue,

我们中的许多人对这种灾难论产生厌倦，

getting numb from too much collapse porn.

太多的灾难论让人变得麻木。

The third defense is dissonance.

第三种防御：失调。

Now, if what we know,

现在，如果我们所知道的，

that fossil fuel use contributes to global warming,

使用化石燃料会导致全球气候变暖，

conflicts with what we do -- drive, fly, eat beef --

与我们所做的互相矛盾—— 开车、坐飞机、吃牛肉——

then so-called cognitive dissonance sets in.

那么这就是所谓的认知失调。

This is felt as an inner discomfort.

这是一种内在的不安。

We may feel like hypocrites.

我们可能会有一种伪善的感觉，

To get rid of this discomfort,

为了摆脱这种不安，

our brain starts coming up with justifications.

我们的大脑开始寻找一些理由。

So I can say, for instance,

举个例子，所以我会说：

"My neighbor, he has a much bigger car than I do."

“我邻居的车比我的要大很多。”

Or, "Changing my diet doesn't amount to anything

或者，“如果只有我一个人 改变饮食习惯，

if I am the only one to do it."

这根本起不了任何作用。”

Or, I could even want to doubt climate science itself.

又或者，我甚至可以怀疑气候科学本身。

I could say, "You know, climate is always changing."

我可以说：“你知道的， 气候总是在变化。”

So these justifications make us all feel better,

所以这些理由让我们都好受一些，

but at the expense

但代价却是

of dismissing what we know.

我们对于自己所了解的事实置之不理。

Thus, behavior drives attitudes.

因此，行为引导态度。

My personal cognitive dissonance comes up

当我意识到我为了讨论气候问题

when I recognize that I've been flying from Oslo to New York

从奥斯陆坐飞机来到纽约

and back to Oslo

然后再飞回奥斯陆

in order to speak about the climate.

我个人的认知失调产生了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

For 14 minutes.

为了一个14分钟的演讲。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So that makes me want to move on to denial.

所以这使我想要继续讨论下一个防御： 拒绝承认。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So if we keep silent,

所以，如果我们保持沉默，

ignore or ridicule facts about climate disruptions,

忽视或是嘲笑气候破坏这个事实，

then we might find inner refuge

那么我们可能会发现

from fear and guilt.

我们是在逃避内心的恐惧和罪恶。

Denial doesn't really come from lack of intelligence or knowledge.

拒绝承认并不是因为缺少智慧或是知识。

No, denial is a state of mind

而是因为，拒绝承认是一种心理状态

in which I may be aware of some troubling knowledge,

在这种心理状态下， 我可能意识到了一些麻烦，

but I live and act as if I don't know.

但我表现得如同我并不知道 这些麻烦一样。

So you could call it a kind of double life,

所以你可以称之为一种双重生活，

both knowing and not knowing,

可以说是知道的，又表现得不知道，

and often this is reinforced by others,

而且这种心理又通过 我的家人和我所在的社区

my family or community,

得到加强，

agreeing not to raise this tricky topic.

他们赞同不再提起这个难以应对的话题。

Finally, identity.

最后一种防御：认同。

Alarmed climate activists

焦虑的气候活动家

demand that government takes action,

要求政府采取行动，

either with regulation or carbon taxes.

要么制定规章，要么征收碳排放税。

But consider what happens

但是设想一下，会有什么事情发生，

when people who hold conservative values, for instance,

当那些保守派的人 从一个活动家那里听说

hear from an activist that government ought to expand even further.

政府应该大力扩展。

Particularly in rich Western democracies,

尤其是在一些富有的西方民主国家，

they are then less likely to believe that science.

他们更可能不太相信这种理论。

How is that?

为什么会这样？

Well, if I hold conservative values, for instance,

比如说我是个观念保守的人，

I probably prefer big proper cars and small government

比起小型汽车和大型政府，

over tiny, tiny cars and huge government.

我更倾向于大型汽车和小型政府。

And if climate science comes and then says

如果气候科学表明

government should expand further,

政府应该大力扩展，

then I probably will trust that science less.

那么我可能就不会那么相信这个说法。

In this way, cultural identity

文化认同以这种方式

starts to override the facts.

凌驾于事实之上。

The values eat the facts,

观念打败了事实，

and my identity trumps truth any day.

无论如何，我的认同战胜了真相。

So, after recognizing how these five D's kill engagement,

所以，了解了这5种防御是如何 阻止我们参与解决问题之后，

how can we move beyond them?

我们怎样才能冲破它们？

New research shows how we can flip these five defenses

新的研究告诉我们如何把这5种防御

over into key success criteria

转变为成功的关键标准，

for a more brain-friendly climate communication.

使得气候传播更能令人接受。

So this is where it gets really exciting

所以这就是它令人感到激动之处，

and where we find the five S's,

以及使我们找到5种解决办法，

the five evidence-based solutions for what does work.

5种基于证据的、可行的解决办法。

First, we can flip distance to social.

首先，我们可以将距离转变为邻里。

We can make climate feel near, personal and urgent

通过把气候问题带回家，

by bringing it home,

传播有利于解决问题的社会规范，

and we can do that by spreading social norms

我们可以使气候问题转变为

that are positive to solutions.

身边的、个人的、急切的问题。

If I believe my friends or neighbors,

如果我相信我的朋友们或是邻居们，

you guys, will do something,

你们，将会采取行动，

then I will, too.

那么，我也会那么做。

We can see, for instance, this from rooftop solar panels.

我们可以见证这一点， 举例而言，屋顶上的太阳能板。

They are spreading from neighbor to neighbor like a virus.

它们像病毒一样，挨家挨户传播。

It's contagious.

它是具有感染力的。

This is the power of peer-to-peer creating the new normal.

这种点对点的力量 创造了一种新的态势。

Next, we can flip doom to supportive.

其次，我们可以把灾难转变为支持。

Rather than backfiring frames

与其采用灾难、损失等

such as disaster and cost,

事与愿违的定义，

we can reframe climate as being really about human health,

我们不如重新定义气候， 它是与人类健康息息相关的，

for instance, with plant-based delicious burgers,

比如，一个美味的蔬菜汉堡包，

good for you and good for the climate.

既有利于你的健康，又对气候做贡献。

We can also reframe climate as being about new tech opportunities,

我们还可以重新定义气候， 将它与新技术机会联系在一起，

about safety and about new jobs.

有关于安全以及新工作的新技术机会。

Solar jobs, for instance, are seeing an amazing growth.

举例而言，有关太阳能的工作 正在惊人地增长。

They just passed the three million jobs mark.

它们超越了300万个工作的记录。

Psychology says, in order to create engagement,

心理学表明，为了使人们参与解决 全球气候变暖问题，

we should present, on balance,

总的来说，针对我们所提出的 每一个气候威胁，

three positive or supportive framings

我们应该列出

for each climate threat we mention.

3个积极的或是支持性的定义。

Then we can flip dissonance

接着，我们可以将失调

to simpler actions.

转变为更简单的行动。

This is often called nudging.

这通常被称为助推。

The idea is, by better choice architecture,

也就是说，通过更好的选择架构，

we can make the climate-friendly behaviors

我们可以更加方便地做出

default and convenient.

有利于改善气候的行为。

Let me illustrate this. Take food waste.

听我来解释。比如说浪费食物这一点。

Food waste at buffets goes way down

如果餐盘或是餐盒形状变得小一点，

if the plate or the box size is reduced a little,

那么宴会上食物浪费就会少一些，

because on the smaller plate it looks full

因为装在小一些的盘子上， 看起来更满

but in the big box it looks half empty,

而装在大餐盘里， 看起来还有一半是空的，

so we put more in.

所以我们就往里面装更多。

So smaller plates make a big difference for food waste.

因此，将餐盘变小对于 食物浪费有着大作用。

And there are hundreds of smart nudges like this.

而且还有许多诸如此类的机智的助推。

The point is, dissonance goes down as more behaviors are nudged.

重点在于，随着更多的行为得到助推， 失调也就逐渐减少。

Then we can flip denial

之后，我们可以通过调整信号 可视化我们所做的一切，

by tailoring signals that visualize our progress.

转变拒绝承认。

We can provide motivating feedback

根据我们为了解决问题所做的努力，

on how well we're doing with our problem-solving.

我们可以提供积极的反馈。

Say you improved your transport footprint

例如你改善了你的交通足迹

or cut energy waste in your buildings.

或是减少了你所在建筑的能源浪费。

Then one app that can share this well is called Ducky.

那么，你可以在一个名为“Ducky”的 手机应用上分享你的行为。

The idea is, you log your actions there,

它的理念是，你在它上面记录自己的行为，

and then you can see how well your team or company is doing,

就可以看到你的团队或者公司的表现，

so you get real-time signals.

所以你会得到实时信号。

Finally, identity.

最后一点，认同。

We can flip identity with better stories.

我们可以利用美好的故事克服认同。

Our brain loves stories.

我们的大脑喜欢故事。

So we need better stories of where we all want to go,

所以我们需要更美好的、更多的故事，

and we need more stories of the heroes and heroines

有关我们共同前进方向的故事，

of all stripes that are making real change happen.

有关各种带来真正改变的英雄的故事。

I'm proud that my hometown of Oslo

我为我的家乡奥斯陆感到自豪，

is now embarking on a bold journey of electrifying all transport,

奥斯陆正在展开一项大胆的活动， 使所有的交通工具电动化，

whether cars, bikes or buses.

无论是汽车、自行车或是公交车。

One of the people spearheading this is Christina Bu.

克里斯蒂娜 ·布是这项活动的 带头人之一。

She is heading the Electric Vehicle Association for years

她掌管电动车协会多年

and she has been fighting every day.

她每天都在努力。

Now, the UK and France, India and China have also announced plans

如今，英国、法国、印度以及 中国都出台了相关计划

for ending the sales of fossil cars.

停止销售使用化石燃料的汽车。

Now, that's massive.

现在，规模越来越大。

And in Oslo, we can see how enthusiastic EV owners

在奥斯陆，我们可以看到 电动汽车车主充满热情地

go and tell their electric stories to friends and neighbors

向他们的朋友、邻居奔走相告 他们的电动故事

and bring them along.

也将他们的朋友、邻居带上电动化之路。

So we come full circle from story back to social.

所以我们绕了一个圈又从故事回到邻里。

So thousands of climate communicators

所以数千名气候传播者

are now starting to use these solutions

现在，在全世界

all over the world.

开始使用这些方法。

It is clear, however, that individual solutions

我们明白光靠个人的力量去解决气候问题

are not sufficient to solving climate alone,

是远远不够的，

but they do build stronger bottom-up support

但是他们确确实实为气候相关 的政策制定和解决方法

for policies and solutions that can.

提供了自下而上的支持。

That is why engaging people is so crucial.

可见人们的参与是多么重要。

I started this talk

在我开始演讲的时候

with testing two ways of communicating climate with you.

就两种气候传播方式与你们进行了实验。

There is another way, too,

还有另一种方式，

I'd like to share with you.

我愿与你们分享。

It starts with reimagining climate itself

把气候本身想象成

as the living air.

身边的空气。

Climate isn't really about some abstract, distant climate

气候并不单纯是抽象的，遥远的存在

far, far away from us.

它并不是离我们非常遥远。

It's about this air that surrounds us.

它是环绕我们周围的空气。

This air, you can feel in this room, too,

这空气，你也可以在 这个演播厅里感受得到，

the air that moves right now in your nostrils.

现在，这空气在你的鼻孔里流动。

This air is our earth's skin.

这空气是我们地球的皮肤。

It's amazingly thin,

相比于地球的体积和在它的庇护下 与我们隔离开的宇宙，

compared to the size of the earth and the cosmos it shields us from,

它的厚度是如此的薄，

far thinner than the skin of an apple

远远比一个苹果表皮和果肉的直径之比

compared to its diameter.

要薄得多。

It may look infinite when we look up,

当我们抬头仰望，它显得浩瀚无垠，

but the beautiful, breathable air is only like five to seven miles thin,

但是这美丽的、可呼吸的空气只存在于 距离地面15到17英里的范围内，

a fragile wrapping around a massive ball.

薄薄的一层包裹着一个巨大的地球。

Inside this skin,

在地球的这层皮肤里，

we're all closely connected.

我们紧密相联。

The breath that you just took

你刚刚呼吸的那一口空气，

contained around 400,000 of the same argon atoms

含有大约40万个氩原子

that Gandhi breathed during his lifetime.

这也是甘地一生所呼吸的空气。

Inside this thin, fluctuating, unsettled film,

在这层稀薄的、不断波动变化着 的空气里，

all of life is nourished, protected and held.

所有的生命得到滋养、保护和支持。

It insulates and regulates temperatures

它隔绝和稳定温度，使之刚好维持在

in a range that is just right for water and for life as we know it,

我们所了解的适合水和 生命存在的范围之内，

and mediating between the blue ocean and black eternity,

介于蓝色海洋和无垠宇宙之间。

the clouds carry all the billions of tons of water

云承载着土壤所需的

needed for the soils.

几十亿吨的水。

The air fills the rivers,

空气造就了河流，

stirs the waters,

轻拂过海洋，

waters the forests.

浇灌着森林。

With a global weirding of the weather,

由于全球气候异常，

there are good reasons for feeling fear and despair,

我们当然会感到害怕和失望，

yet we may first grieve today's sorry state and losses

而我们可能首先会为今日的悲惨境地 和损失感到悲伤，

and then turn to face the future with sober eyes and determination.

之后将以坚定的眼神和决心面对未来。

The new psychology of climate action

新的气候行为心理学

lies in letting go, not of science,

在于摒弃那些抽象的概念和灾难论，

but of the crutches of abstractions and doomism,

而非科学理论，

and then choosing to tell the new stories.

并且选择去描绘新的故事。

These are the stories

这些就是我们如何实现节能减排，

of how we achieve drawdown, the reversing of global warming.

反转全球气候变暖局面的故事。

These are the stories of the steps we take

也是我们作为个人、城市、公司

as peoples, cities, companies

以及公共机构，

and public bodies

如何一步步地

in caring for the air

顶着巨大阻力，

in spite of strong headwinds.

关心空气的故事。

These are the stories of the steps we take

这也是我们采取行动的故事

because they ground us in what we are as humans:

因为这是我们之所以为人的基本：

earthlings inside this living air.

靠着这层新鲜的空气生存的凡人。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）