10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet | Johan Rockström

Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

翻译人员: TED Translators Admin 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

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[倒计时]

[Countdown]

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Ten years is a long time for us humans on earth.

十年对我们地球上的人类来说很长，

Ten turns around the sun.

相当于绕太阳公转十圈。

When I was on the TED stage a decade ago,

十年前，当我站在 TED 讲台上时，

I talked about planetary boundaries

我谈到了地球上的边界，

that keep our planet in a state that allowed humanity to prosper.

它们能使我们的地球 保持在一种让人类繁荣的状态。

The main point is that once you transgress one,

重点是一旦你越界，

the risks start multiplying.

风险就会开始倍增。

The planetary boundaries are all deeply connected,

地球的边界都是紧密相连的，

but climate, alongside biodiversity, are core boundaries.

但是气候和生物多样性是边界之核心，

They impact on all others.

它们会影响到其余一切。

Back then we really thought we had more time.

当时，我们真的以为我们有更多的时间，

The warning lights were on, absolutely,

警示灯的确是亮着，

but no unstoppable change had been triggered.

但没有引发不可阻挡的变化。

Since my talk, we have increasing evidence

自从我的演讲以来， 我们有越来越多的证据表明，

that we are rapidly moving away

我们正迅速远离地球上

from the safe operating space for humanity on earth.

人类的安全活动空间。

Climate has reached a global crisis point.

气候已经到了全球危机的地步。

We have now had 10 years of record-breaking climate extremes:

十年来，极端气候的纪录不断被打破。

肆虐于澳大利亚、西伯利亚、 加利福尼亚和亚马逊的大火，

fires blaze in Australia, Siberia, California and the Amazon,

floods in China, Bangladesh and India.

以及中国、孟加拉国 和印度的洪水。

We're now enduring heat waves across the entire northern hemisphere.

我们现在正经历着

席卷整个北半球的热浪。

We risk crossing tipping points

我们冒着跨越临界点的风险，

that shift the planet from being our best resilient friend,

将地球从我们最好的朋友—— 它能抵御冲击，

dampening our impacts,

to start working against us, amplifying the heat.

转变为开始与我们作对的朋友—— 它加剧升温。

For the first time, we are forced to consider the real risk

我们第一次迫不得已去考虑

of destabilizing the entire planet.

破坏整个地球稳定的真正风险。

Our children can see this.

我们的孩子可以看到这一点。

They are walking out of school to demand action,

他们罢课要求采取行动，

looking with disbelief at our inability to deviate away

怀疑我们无法摆脱

潜在的灾难性风险。

from potentially catastrophic risks.

The next 10 years, to 2030,

直至 2030 年的未来十年，

must see the most profound transformation the world has ever known.

必须发生世界有史以来

最深刻的变革。

This is our mission.

这是我们的使命。

This is the countdown.

这就是倒计时。

(Clock ticks)

When my scientific colleagues summarized, about a decade ago,

大约十年前，当我的科学家同事

for the first time,

第一次总结关于 气候临界点的知识状况时，

the state of knowledge on climate tipping points,

just one place had strong evidence that it was on a serious downward spiral.

只有一个地方有确凿证据表明

气候正处于严重的下滑阶段。

Arctic sea ice. (Water sounds)

北极海冰 （船机轰鸣）

Other tipping points were long way off --

我们离其他的临界点还很远，

50 or 100 turns around the sun.

至少还要等公绕太阳转 50 或 100 圈。

Just last year we revisited these systems,

就在去年，我们重新查看了这些系统，

and I got the shock of my career.

我受到了我职业生涯最大的冲击。

We are only a few decades away from an Arctic without sea ice in summer.

我们离夏天没有海冰的北极

只有几十年的路程。

In Siberia, permafrost is now thawing at dramatic scales.

在西伯利亚， 永久冻土正以惊人的规模消融；

Greenland is losing trillions of tons of ice

格陵兰岛正在失去数万亿吨的冰，

and may be approaching a tipping point.

并可能接近临界点；

The great forests of the North

北方的大森林燃烧着

are burning with plumes of smoke the size of Europe.

相当于欧洲大小的烟雾；

The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing.

大西洋环流正在放缓；

The Amazon rainforest is weakening

亚马逊雨林正在减弱，

and may start emitting carbon within 15 years.

可能在 15 年内开始排放碳；

Half of the coral of the Great Barrier Reef has died.

大堡礁一半的珊瑚已经死亡了。

West Antarctica may have crossed the tipping point already today.

今天，南极洲西部可能已经

越过了一个临界点。

And now, the most solid of glaciers on earth, East Antarctica,

现在，地球上最坚固的冰川

南极洲东部的部分冰川 正在变得不稳定。

parts of it are becoming unstable.

Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems that regulate climate are now on the move,

调节气候的 15 大生物物理系统中

有 9 个现在正在移动，

showing worrying signs of decline

显示出令人担忧的下降迹象，

and potentially approaching tipping points.

并可能接近临界点。

Tipping points bring three threats.

临界点会带来三个威胁。

First, sea level rise.

第一，海平面上升。

We can already expect up to one meter this century.

本世纪我们已经可以预计到一米，

This will endanger the homes of 200 million people.

这将危及两亿人的家园。

But when we add the melting ice from Antarctica and Greenland

但是，当我们把南极洲

和格陵兰岛融化的冰加入方程时，

into the equation,

this might lead to a two meter rise.

这可能会导致两米的上升，

But it won't stop there, it will keep on getting worse.

但不会就此停止，它会继续恶化。

Second, if our carbon stores like permafrost and forest

第二，如果我们的碳储存，

如永久冻土和森林转变为排放碳，

flip to belching carbon,

then this makes the job of stabilizing temperatures so much harder.

那么稳定气温的工作

就会变得更加困难。

And third, these systems are all linked like dominoes:

第三，这些系统都像 多米诺骨牌一样息息相关。

If you cross one tipping point, you lurch closer to others.

如果你越过了一个临界点， 你就会向其他临界点靠拢。

Let's stop for a moment and look at where we are.

让我们停一会儿，看看我们在哪里。

The foundation of our civilization is a stable climate

我们文明的基础是稳定的气候

and a rich diversity of life.

和丰富多样的生活。

Everything, I mean everything, is based on this.

一切，所有一切都是基于此。

Civilization has thrived in a Goldilocks zone:

文明在一个宜居带蓬勃发展，

not too hot, not too cold.

不能太热，也不能太冷。

This is what we have had for 10,000 years since we left the last ice age.

这就是我们距离上一个

冰河世纪以来的一万年。

Let's zoom out a little here.

让我们把这里放大一点。

Three million years --

300 万年来，气温从未突破

temperatures have never broken through the two degrees Celsius limit.

两摄氏度的极限。

Earth has self-regulated within a very narrow range

地球在一个非常狭窄的 范围内进行自我调节，

of plus two degrees in a warm interglacial,

即在温暖的间冰期加两度，

minus four degrees, deep ice age.

深冰期减四度。

Now, we are following a path

而今，我们正沿着一条道路前进， 这条道路将在仅三代人的时间里

that would take us to a three to four degree world

把我们带到一个三到四度的世界。

in just three generations.

We would be rewinding the climate clock, not one million, not two million,

我们倒转的气候时钟，不是 100 万年，

but five to 10 million years.

不是 200 万年， 而是 500 万到 1000 万年。

We are drifting towards hot-house earth.

我们正朝着温室地球漂移。

For each one degree rise,

每上升一度，

one billion people will be forced to live in conditions

就会有十亿人被迫生活在

我们今天认为不适宜居住的环境中，

that we today largely consider uninhabitable.

This is not a climate emergency, it is a planetary emergency.

这不是气候紧急情况。

这是一个全球性的紧急事件。

My fear is not that Earth will fall over a cliff

我担心的不是 2030 年 1 月 1 日

on the 1st of January, 2030.

地球会掉下悬崖。

My fear is that we press unstoppable buttons in the Earth system.

我担心的是我们按下了

地球系统中不可停止的按钮。

What happens in the next 10 years

未来十年发生的事情

will likely determine the state of the planet we hand over

可能会决定我们留给后代的

for future generations.

地球状况，

Our children have every reason to be alarmed.

我们的孩子完全有理由感到震惊。

We need to get serious about stabilizing our planet.

我们需要将稳定地球的使命认真对待。

Two frontiers will guide this transformation.

两条战线将引领这一转变。

The first one is in science.

第一条是在于科学。

Here's a new equation for a sustainable planet:

这里有一个可持续地球的新等式，

planetary boundaries plus global commons

地球边界，加上全球公域，

equals planetary stewardship.

等于地球管理。

We need to a safe corridor for humanity

我们需要为人类建立一个安全的走廊，

to allow us all to become stewards of the entire planet,

让我们都成为整个地球的管理者，

not to save the planet but to provide a good future for all people.

不是为了拯救地球，

而是为所有人提供一个美好的未来。

And the second frontier is in society.

第二条战线是在社会。

We need a new economic logic based on well-being.

我们需要一种 基于福祉的新经济逻辑。

We are now in a position to provide science-based targets

我们现在有能力为全球，

for all global commons for all companies and cities in the world.

为所有企业和城市

提供基于科学的目标。

First task, we need to cut global emissions by half by 2030

第一项任务，我们需要 在 2030 年前将全球排放量减半，

and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner.

在 2050 年或更早达到净零排放。

This means decarbonizing the big systems that run our lives:

这意味着让我们生活、能源、

工业、交通和建筑的大系统去碳化，

energy, industry, transport, buildings.

The fossil fuel era is over.

化石燃料时代已经结束。

We need to transform agriculture from a source of emissions

我们需要将农业从排放源

转变为碳储存源，关键是我们必须

to a store of carbon,

and critically, we must protect our oceans and land,

保护我们的海洋和土地，

the natural ecosystems that absorb half of our emissions.

它们是能吸收我们 一半排放量的自然生态系统。

The good news is, we can do this.

好消息是我们可以做到。

We have the knowledge. We have the technology.

我们有知识，我们有技术。

We know it makes social and economic sense.

我们知道它有社会和经济意义。

And when we succeed, we can all take lungfuls of fresh air.

当我们成功时， 我们都能呼吸到新鲜的空气，

We will be saying hello to healthy lifestyles

我们将向宜居城市的健康生活方式

and resilient economies in livable cities.

和弹性经济招手。

We are all on this journey around the sun together.

我们都在一起绕着太阳旅行，

This is our only home.

这是我们唯一的家，

This is our mission: to protect our children's future.

这是我们保护孩子未来的使命。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Lights click off)