How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it | Rob Reid

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.

现在地球上大约有75亿人口。

The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,

世界卫生组织告诉我们这其中 有3000万人身患抑郁症，

and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.

每年大约有80万人选择 结束自己的生命。

A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,

他们中的一小部分选择了 一种深刻的虚无主义路线，

which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.

那就是他们选择通过杀死 尽可能多的人的方式死去。

These are some famous recent examples.

这里有一些最近比较著名的例子。

And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.

同时也有一个不那么出名的。 这件事发生在大约九个星期前。

If you don't remember it,

如果你不记得了，

it's because there's a lot of this going on.

是因为有太多这样的事情在发生。

Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings

维基百科仅去年就统计了 323起大规模枪击事件，

in my home country, the United States.

发生在我的故乡，美国。

Not all of those shooters were suicidal,

并不是所有的那些 枪击犯都想自杀，

not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,

并不是所有人都在 最大化死亡人数，

but many, many were.

但是很多、很多人是。

An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?

一个重要的问题变成了： 这些人有上限吗？

Take the Vegas shooter.

以拉斯维加斯枪击案为例。

He slaughtered 58 people.

他屠杀了58人。

Did he stop there because he'd had enough?

他在那里停下来是 因为他杀够了吗？

No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people

不是的，我们知道这一点是 因为他击伤了另外422人，

who he surely would have preferred to kill.

而这些人他肯定更愿意 选择杀死他们。

We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.

我们没有理由去认为他可能 会在4200人时停下来。

In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.

事实上，对某些虚无主义的人来说， 他可能会非常乐意把我们都杀了。

We don't know.

我们不知道。

What we do know is this:

我们知道的是：

when suicidal murderers really go all in,

当自杀式凶手真的全部都要杀人时，

technology is the force multiplier.

技术则是力量倍增器。

Here's an example.

这里有一个例子。

Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in China

回到几年前，中国发生了十起 不顾后果的校园攻击，

carried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,

这些攻击使用的是像刀、 铁锤和劈刀等工具，

because guns are really hard to get there.

因为在中国枪是很难获取的。

By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurred

可怕的巧合是，这最后一次 袭击发生的时间

just hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.

正好是康涅狄格州纽镇 大屠杀的几个小时前。

But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victims

但是那一次美国式袭击 受害人数量大约

as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.

是十次中国袭击的总和。

So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.

所以我们可以说， 刀：可怕；枪：更糟糕。

And airplane: massively worse,

飞机：相当糟糕，

as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people

飞行员Andreas Lubitz展示过 他强迫149个人

to join him in his suicide,

加入他的自杀行为，

smashing a plane into the French Alps.

将飞机撞上了法国阿尔卑斯山脉。

And there are other examples of this.

这有一些其它这样的例子。

And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,

我很担心在不久的未来将会有 比飞机更加致命的武器出现，

ones not made of metal.

没有一个是金属制造。

So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue

所以我们可以认为 如果大规模自杀式谋杀

if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field

搭上了社会快速发展的便车， 那么世界末日的动力将随之而来，

that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.

而这个领域在很大程度上 能为社会带来无限的希望。

Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of people

在这个世界上的某个地方， 有那么一小部分人，

who would attempt, however ineptly,

如果他们知道方法，

to kill us all if they could just figure out how.

会尝试把我们都杀光。

The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,

拉斯维加斯的枪手可能是， 也可能不是这其中的一员，

but with seven and a half billion of us,

但是我们有75亿的人口，

this is a nonzero population.

这是个非零的总体。

There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.

这世界上有很多自杀虚无主义者。

我们已经见到过了。

We've already seen that.

There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.

同样也有很多人有着他们自己 也无法控制的严重的情绪障碍。

There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.

也有人经受着精神错乱的创伤，等等。

As for the corollary group,

至于推论群体，

its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,

它的规模在冷战之前一直是零。

when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances

突然之间，两个全球性联盟的领导人

attained the ability to blow up the world.

获得了炸毁世界的能力。

The number of people with actual doomsday buttons

从那之后，实际拥有 世界末日按钮的人数

has stayed fairly stable since then.

一直保持着稳定。

But I'm afraid it's about to grow,

但是恐怕这个数字将会增长，

and not just to three.

而且并不止三个，

This is going off the charts.

已经多到图表快要装不下了。

I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.

我的意思是，它看起来 像一个技术企业计划。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And the reason is,

而原因则是，

we're in the era of exponential technologies,

我们处在技术爆炸的时代，

which routinely take eternal impossibilities

常规来说就是将永恒的不可能

and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses

变成一两个现有天才的 实实在在的超能力，

and -- this is the big part --

并且——这是很重要的一部分——

then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.

然后这些能力多多少少 会扩散到每一个人。

Now, here's a benign example.

这里有一个很好的例子。

If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,

如果你想在1952年用电脑玩跳棋，

you literally had to be that guy,

你必须得是那个家伙，

then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,

然后霸占世界上19台 电脑的其中一台，

then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.

用你媲美诺贝尔奖 的大脑教它下跳棋。

That was the bar.

那就是当时的门槛。

Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,

今天你只需要认识一个 知道谁有电话的人，

because computing is an exponential technology.

因为计算机是指数级增长的技术。

So is synthetic biology,

合成生物学也是如此，

which I'll now refer to as "synbio."

今天我会称之为"synbio"。

And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious

2011年，一群研究者 用H5N1病毒做了件

and unprecedented as the checkers trick

就像跳棋一样非常巧妙

with H5N1 flu.

和史无前例的事情。

This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,

H5N1这种病毒能杀死60%的感染者，

more than Ebola.

致死率超过埃博拉病毒。

But it is so uncontagious

但它的传染性很弱，

that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.

自2015年以来只造成了 不到50人死亡。

So these researchers edited H5N1's genome

于是这些研究者 编辑了H5N1的基因

and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.

并使其更致命，但也具有 更广泛的传染性。

The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals

世界两大科学期刊之一 的新闻部门表示，

said if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic

如果这个东西被泄露出去， 很可能会大面积传染，

with perhaps millions of deaths.

导致数百万人的死亡。

And Dr. Paul Keim said

Paul Keim博士说，

he could not think of an organism as scary as this,

他想不出还有什么生物体这么可怕，

which is the last thing I personally want to hear

这是我个人最不想从

from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

国家生物安全科学咨询委员会 主席那里听到的。

And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --

顺便说一句，Keim博士还提到：

["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]

【“跟这些相比， 我不认为炭疽热可怕。】

他还是这群人中的一员：

And he's also one of these.

[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)

【炭疽专家】 （笑声）

Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack

好消息是2011年的生物黑客

is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.

对我们并无恶意。

They're virologists.

他们是病毒学家。

They believed they were advancing science.

他们相信他们在推动科技发展。

The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,

坏消息是科技不会冻结在一个地方，

and over the next few decades,

在接下来的几十年里，

their feat will become trivially easy.

他们的壮举将会变得非常简单。

In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,

事实上，现在已经非常容易了， 因为我们昨天早上了解到，

just two years after they did their work,

仅在他们利用CRISPR系统

the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.

进行基因组编辑的两年后。

This was a radical breakthrough

就有巨大的突破

that makes gene editing massively easier --

使得基因编辑变得非常容易——

so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.

简单到以至于高中 就开始教授CRISPR了。

And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.

这个东西发展的速度比计算机还快。

That slow, stodgy white line up there?

那条缓慢的，笨重的白色线条

That's Moore's law.

是摩尔定律。

That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.

这展示了计算机是如何变便宜的。

That steep, crazy-fun green line,

那条陡峭有趣的绿线，

that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.

则展示了基因测序 如何变得越来越便宜。

Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,

基因编辑，合成和测序，

they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.

它们是不同的学科，但又紧密关联，

And they're all moving in these headlong rates.

都在快速发展。

And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.

通向王国的钥匙是这些 很小很小的数据文件。

That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.

这是H5N1基因代码的片段。

The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.

只需要几张纸就能装下全部的信息。

And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.

不要担心，你回到家后 就可以谷歌搜索它了。

它在网上全都可以找到。

It's all over the internet, right?

而使它具有传染性的部分字母

And the part that made it contagious

could well fit on a single Post-it note.

用一张便利贴就能写下。

And once a genius makes a data file,

一旦一个天才生成了一个数据文件，

any idiot can copy it,

任何白痴都能复制它，

distribute it worldwide

在全球分发

or print it.

或打印出来。

And I don't just mean print it on this,

我说的不是这样的打印，

but soon enough, on this.

而是不久之后，像这样。

So let's imagine a scenario.

让我们想象一个场景。

Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,

比如说在2026年，任意选择一年，

and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance science

一个天才的病毒学家， 抱着推动科学进步的希望

and better understand pandemics,

也为了更好的理解流行病，

designs a new bug.

设计了一个新的臭虫。

It's as contagious as chicken pox,

它和水痘一样具有传染性，

it's as deadly as Ebola,

它和埃博拉一样致命，

and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,

并且会在病毒爆发前潜伏好几个月，

so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.

所以整个世界在问题征兆 出现之前都被感染了。

Then, her university gets hacked.

然后，她的大学实验室被黑了。

And of course, this is not science fiction.

当然，这并非科幻故事。

In fact, just one recent US indictment

事实上，仅最近一份美国起诉书

documents the hacking of over 300 universities.

就记录了对300多所大学的黑客攻击。

So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.

于是包含那个臭虫基因的文件 被传播到互联网的黑暗角落。

And once a file is out there, it never comes back --

并且一旦文件散播出去了， 它就再也回不来了——

just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.

只需去问问做过 电影和唱片公司的人。

So now maybe in 2026,

所以可能是在2026年，

it would take a true genius like our virologist

只有像我们的病毒学家这样的天才

to make the actual living critter,

才能制造出活生生的生物，

but 15 years later,

但15年之后，

it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.

也许一台你能在任何一所高中 找到的DNA打印机就能做到。

And if not?

假如还没有？

Give it a couple of decades.

那就再给几十年的时间。

So, a quick aside:

顺便提一下：

记得这张幻灯片吗？

Remember this slide here?

Turn your attention to these two words.

把你的注意力放在这两个词上。

If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,

如果有人这样做， 并且只有0.1%奏效了，

eight million people die.

800万人会死亡。

That's 2,500 9/11s.

那是911事件的2500倍。

Civilization would survive,

文明可能会幸存下来，

but it would be permanently disfigured.

但它将永久毁容。

So this means we need to be concerned about anybody

所以这意味着 我们需要关注任何一个

who has the faintest shot on goal,

能够直达目标的人，

not just geniuses.

而不仅仅是天才。

So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuses

所以今天，只有一小撮的天才

who probably could make a doomsday bug

能够制造末日害虫，

that's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.

还是0.1%的效率或者更高。

They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.

他们倾向于稳定和成功， 所以不属于这个群体。

So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.

所以我会勉强感觉还好。

But what about after technology improves

但在技术进步，

and diffuses

和扩散之后，

and thousands of life science grad students are enabled?

并且成千上万的生命科学院 的学生也参与其中了呢？

Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?

他们每一个人都情绪稳定吗？

Or how about a few years after that,

或者再过几年后，

where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?

每一个压力重重的 预科医学生也武装上了呢？

At some point in that time frame,

在那个时间段的某个时间点，

these circles are going to intersect,

这些圆就会相交，

because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of people

因为现在我们谈论的是全世界

throughout the world.

成千上万的人。

And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Joker

最近还包括了那个穿得像小丑，

and shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.

在蝙蝠侠首映式上射杀12人的人。

That was a neuroscience PhD student

他还是个获得了 国家卫生研究院资助的

with an NIH grant.

神经科学博士生。

OK, plot twist:

好了，情节曲折：

I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.

我认为我们如果现在就开始关注 这个问题，实际上可以挺过这次危机。

And I say this, having spent countless hours

我这样说，是基于花了无数的时间

interviewing global leaders in synbio

采访全球合成生物领域的领袖，

and also researching their work for science podcasts I create.

同时也为我制作的科学播客 研究他们的工作。

I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet --

我开始害怕他们的工作了， 我可能还没有表达出这个意思——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

but more than that, to revere its potential.

但更重要的是，要重视他们的潜力。

This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environment

这些东西将可以治疗癌症， 恢复我们的环境，

and stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.

并停止我们对其他生物的残忍对待。

So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?

那么我们如何在不毁灭自己 的情况下实现？

First thing: like it or not, synbio is here,

首先，不管喜欢与否， 合成生物已经出现了，

so let's embrace the technology.

那么让我们拥抱这个科技。

If we do a tech ban,

如果我们做科技封锁，

that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.

只能把方向盘送给坏人。

Unlike nuclear programs,

跟核项目不同，

biology can be practiced invisibly.

生物学可以在不可见的情况下进行。

Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treaties

苏联在生物武器条约上的大规模欺骗，

made that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.

以及世界上所有的非法药物实验室， 都清楚地表明了这一点。

Secondly, enlist the experts.

第二，赢得专家。

Let's sign them up and make more of them.

让我们把他们召集起来。

For every million and one bioengineers we have,

对于100万零1个生物工程师，

at least a million of them are going to be on our side.

至少有100万人要站在我们这边。

I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.

艾尔·卡彭会站在我们这边。

The bar to being a good guy is just so low.

成为好人的门槛是如此之低。

And massive numerical advantages do matter,

数量上的巨大优势确实很重要，

even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,

即便当一个坏人 也能造成巨大的伤害时，

because among many other things,

因为在其他很多事情中，

they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:

他们让我们利用这一切：

we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.

我们有几年甚至几十年 的时间来准备和预防。

The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody --

有第一个人尝试糟糕的事情—— 就会有另一个人——

现在可能还没有出生。

may not even be born yet.

Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society,

接下来，这需要跨社会的努力，

and all of you need to be a part of it,

你们所有人都应该参与进来，

because we cannot ask a tiny group of experts

因为我们不能要求一小群专家

to be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,

对合成生物学的开发和利用负责，

because we already tried that with the financial system,

毕竟我们已经在金融系统中试过了，

and our stewards became massively corrupted

我们的管家会变得非常腐败，

as they figured out how they could cut corners,

一旦他们知道如何偷工减料，

inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of us

给我们其他人带来巨大的风险，

and privatize the gains,

并获取私利，

becoming repulsively wealthy

他们会在变得极端富有的同时，

while they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.

给我们留下22万亿美元的债务。

And more recently --

还有最近——

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters?

你们谁收到了感谢信了吗？

我还在等我的。

I'm still waiting for mine.

I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.

我想他们一定太忙而忘记感谢了。

And much more recently,

最近，

online privacy started looming as a huge issue,

在线隐私开始成为一个大问题，

and we basically outsourced it.

我们基本上是把它外包出去。

And once again:

并且再一次：

privatized gains, socialized losses.

私人得益，社会受损。

Is anybody else sick of this pattern?

有人讨厌这种模式吗？

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

So we need a more inclusive way to safeguard our prosperity,

所以我们需要更包容的方法 来保护我们的繁荣，

our privacy

我们的隐私，

and soon, our lives.

并且很快，我们的生命。

So how do we do all of this?

那么我们该怎么做呢？

Well, when bodies fight pathogens,

当身体对抗病原体时，

they use ingenious immune systems,

它们使用巧妙的免疫系统，

which are very complex and multilayered.

免疫系统相当复杂，层次丰富。

Why don't we build one of these for the whole damn ecosystem?

我们为什么不为整个该死的 生态系统构建一个？

There's a year of TED Talks that could be given on this first critical layer.

仅仅讨论第一个关键层面 就足以举办整整一年的TED演讲。

So these are just a couple of many great ideas that are out there.

所以这些只是一些很好的想法。

Some R and D muscle

一些研发人员

could take the very primitive pathogen sensors that we currently have

可以利用我们目前拥有的 非常原始的病原体传感器，

and put them on a very steep price performance curve

将它们置于一个非常陡峭 的价格性能曲线上，

that would quickly become ingenious

这个曲线很快就会变得巧妙

and networked

而网络化，

and gradually as widespread as smoke detectors and even smartphones.

并像烟雾探测器， 甚至智能手机那样逐渐普及。

On a very related note:

一个非常相关的事项：

vaccines have all kinds of problems

疫苗在生产

when it comes to manufacturing and distribution,

和销售方面存在各种问题，

and once they're made, they can't adapt to new threats or mutations.

一旦生产了，它们就不能适应 新的威胁或突变。

We need an agile biomanufacturing base

我们需要一个灵活的生物制造基地，

extending into every single pharmacy and maybe even our homes.

延伸到每一个药店， 甚至我们的家庭。

Printer technology for vaccines and medicines is within reach

如果我们以此为先， 疫苗和药物打印技术

if we prioritize it.

就会变得触手可及。

Next, mental health.

下一个，心理健康。

Many people who commit suicidal mass murder

很多有自杀式谋杀行为的人

suffer from crippling, treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.

怀有严重的难以治疗的抑郁症 或创伤后应激障碍。

We need noble researchers like Rick Doblin working on this,

我们需要像里克·多布林这样的 高尚研究者来研究这个问题，

but we also need the selfish jerks who are way more numerous

但我们也需要让 更多自私的傻瓜认识到，

to appreciate the fact that acute suffering will soon endanger all of us,

剧烈的痛苦将很快危及我们所有人，

not just those afflicted.

不仅只是那些遭受过的人。

Those jerks will then join us and Al Capone

那些傻瓜会加入我们和艾尔·卡彭

in fighting this condition.

的战斗来对抗这种状态。

Third, each and every one of us can be and should be a white blood cell

第三，我们每个人能够且 应该成为这个免疫系统的

in this immune system.

白细胞。

Suicidal mass murderers can be despicable, yes,

自杀式大规模谋杀是可鄙的，

but they're also terribly broken and sad people,

但他们也是陷入绝望无法自拔的人，

and those of us who aren't need to do what we can

他们是那种不需要尽我们所能

to make sure nobody goes unloved.

去确保没有人爱的人。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Next, we need to make fighting these dangers

下一点，我们需要把对抗这些危险

core to the discipline of synthetic biology.

置于合成生物的中心。

There are companies out there that at least claim

外面有些公司至少声称

they let their engineers spend 20 percent of their time

他们让他们的工程师花20%的时间

doing whatever they want.

做任何想做的事情。

What if those who hire bioengineers

如果这些雇佣生物工程师

and become them

并成为工程师的人

give 20 percent of their time to building defenses for the common good?

把他们20%的时间用在为 共同利益进行防御上会怎样？

Not a bad idea, right?

不是个糟糕的主意吧？

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Then, finally: this won't be any fun.

最后：这可不好玩。

But we need to let our minds go to some very, very dark places,

我们需要把智慧放到 非常，非常黑暗的地方，

and thank you for letting me take you there this evening.

谢谢大家倾听我的介绍。

We survived the Cold War

我们挺过了冷战，

because every one of us understood and respected the danger,

因为我们每个人都理解和重视危险，

in part, because we had spent decades

部分是因为我们花了几十年时间

telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories

为自己讲述可怕的鬼故事，

with names like "Dr. Strangelove"

诸如“奇爱博士”

and "War Games."

和“战争游戏”。

This is no time to remain calm.

现在不是保持冷静的时候。

This is one of those rare times when it's incredibly productive

这是一个难得的时刻，把自己吓坏

to freak the hell out --

是非常有效的——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

to come up with some ghost stories

去想一些鬼故事，

and use our fear as fuel to fight this danger.

并使用我们的恐惧作为能量 来对抗这个危险。

Because, all these terrible scenarios I've painted --

因为，我所描述的所有恐怖场景——

they are not destiny.

它们不是宿命。

They're optional.

它们是可选的。

The danger is still kind of distant.

我们离危险仍然有些距离。

And that means it will only befall us

这意味着只有我们允许，

if we allow it to.

它才会降临到我们身上。

Let's not.

别让它发生。

Thank you very much for listening.

谢谢大家的倾听。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）