How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it | Rob Reid

176,863 views ใƒป 2019-07-17

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืชืจื’ื•ื: Ofir Blum ืขืจื™ื›ื”: Allon Sasson
00:12
So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.
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ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขืจืš ืฉื‘ืขv ื•ื—ืฆื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืžืื™ืชื ื•.
00:16
The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,
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ืืจื’ื•ืŸ ื”ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ื”ืขื•ืœืžื™ ืžืกืคืจ ืœื ื• ืฉ- 300 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืžืื™ืชื ื• ื‘ื“ื™ื›ืื•ืŸ,
00:21
and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.
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ื•ื‘ืขืจืš 800,000 ืื ืฉื™ื ื ื•ื˜ืœื™ื ืืช ื—ื™ื™ื”ื ื›ืœ ืฉื ื”.
00:24
A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,
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ื—ืœืง ืžื–ืขืจื™ ืžื”ื ื‘ื•ื—ืจ ื‘ื“ืจืš ื”ืจื‘ื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืžื•ืกืจื™ืช,
00:28
which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืœืžื•ืช ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืจื’ ื›ืžื” ืฉื™ื•ืชืจ ืื ืฉื™ื.
00:33
These are some famous recent examples.
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ื”ื ื” ื›ืžื” ื“ื•ื’ืžืื•ืช ืžืคื•ืจืกืžื•ืช ืžื”ื–ืžืŸ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ.
00:36
And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื›ืืœื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืžืคื•ืจืกืžื•ืช. ื–ื” ืงืจื” ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืชืฉืขื” ืฉื‘ื•ืขื•ืช.
00:39
If you don't remember it,
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ืื ืืชื ืœื ื–ื•ื›ืจื™ื ื–ืืช,
00:40
it's because there's a lot of this going on.
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ื–ื” ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ืจื‘ื” ืžืงืจื™ื ื›ืืœื” ืžืชืจื—ืฉื™ื.
00:42
Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings
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ื‘ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื” ื ืกืคืจื• ื‘ืฉื ื” ืฉืขื‘ืจื” 323 ืชืงืจื™ื•ืช ื™ืจื™ ื”ืžื•ื ื™ื•ืช
00:47
in my home country, the United States.
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ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืฉืœื™, ืืจืฆื•ืช ื”ื‘ืจื™ืช.
00:50
Not all of those shooters were suicidal,
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ืœื ื›ืœ ื”ื™ื•ืจื™ื ื”ื™ื• ื‘ืขืœื™ ื ื˜ื™ื•ืช ืื•ื‘ื“ื ื™ื•ืช,
00:52
not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,
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ื•ืœื ื›ื•ืœื ืžื™ืงืกืžื• ืืช ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื”ืจื•ื’ื™ื,
00:55
but many, many were.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžื”ื ื›ืŸ.
00:56
An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?
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ื ืฉืืœืช ื”ืฉืืœื”: ืื™ืœื• ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช ื™ืฉ ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื”ืืœื”?
01:00
Take the Vegas shooter.
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ืงื—ื• ืœืžืฉืœ ืืช ื”ื™ื•ืจื” ืžื•ื’ืืก.
01:02
He slaughtered 58 people.
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ื”ื•ื ืจืฆื— 58 ืื ืฉื™ื.
01:05
Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
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ื”ืื ื”ื•ื ืขืฆืจ ื›ื™ ื–ื” ื”ืกืคื™ืง ืœื•?
01:07
No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people
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ืœื, ื•ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื–ืืช ื›ื™ ื”ื•ื ื™ืจื” ื•ืคืฆืข ืขื•ื“ ื›- 422 ืื ืฉื™ื
01:13
who he surely would have preferred to kill.
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ืฉื‘ื‘ื™ืจื•ืจ ื”ื™ื” ืžืขื“ื™ืฃ ืœื”ืจื•ื’.
01:16
We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.
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ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื• ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ืขื•ืฆืจ ื‘- 4,200.
01:19
In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.
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ืœืžืขืฉื”,ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉืžื™ืฉื”ื• ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืœื ืžื•ืกืจื™, ื”ื™ื” ืฉืžื— ืœื”ืจื•ื’ ืืช ื›ื•ืœื ื•.
01:23
We don't know.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื.
01:24
What we do know is this:
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ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ื›ืŸ ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื”ื•ื:
01:27
when suicidal murderers really go all in,
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ื›ืฉืจื•ืฆื— ืื•ื‘ื“ื ื™ ื”ื•ืœืš ืขื“ ื”ืกื•ืฃ,
01:30
technology is the force multiplier.
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ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ื™ื ืžื›ืคื™ืœ ื”ื›ื•ื—.
01:33
Here's an example.
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ื•ื”ื ื” ื“ื•ื’ืžื”.
01:35
Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in China
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ืœืคื ื™ ืžืกืคืจ ืฉื ื™ื, ื”ื™ื” ืจืฆืฃ ืฉืœ 10 ืชืงื™ืคื•ืช ื”ืžื•ื ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืกื™ืŸ
01:40
carried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,
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ืฉื ืขืฉื• ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื›ืœื™ื ื›ืžื• ืกื›ื™ื ื™ื, ืคื˜ื™ืฉื™ื ื•ืกื›ื™ื ื™ ืงืฆื‘ื™ื,
01:44
because guns are really hard to get there.
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืงืฉื” ืžืื•ื“ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืฉื ืจื•ื‘ื™ื.
01:46
By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurred
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ื‘ืฆื™ืจื•ืฃ ืžืงืจื™ื ื ื•ืจืื™, ื”ืชืงื™ืคื” ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื”ืชืจื—ืฉื”
01:50
just hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.
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ืจืง ืฉืขื•ืช ืกืคื•ืจื•ืช ืœืคื ื™ ื”ื˜ื‘ื— ื‘ื ื™ื•ื˜ืื•ืŸ, ืงื•ื ื˜ื™ืงื˜.
01:54
But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victims
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืžืชืงืคื” ื”ืืžืจื™ืงืื™ืช ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื” ื”ื–ื• ื ื”ืจื’ื• ื‘ืขืจืš ืื•ืชื• ืžืกืคืจ ืงื•ืจื‘ื ื•ืช
01:58
as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.
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ื›ืžื• ื›ืœ 10 ื”ืชืงื™ืคื•ืช ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื—ื“.
02:01
So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
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ืื– ืื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ื“, ืกื›ื™ืŸ: ื ื•ืจื; ืจื•ื‘ื”: ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื’ืจื•ืข.
02:07
And airplane: massively worse,
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ื•ืžื˜ื•ืก: ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื’ืจื•ืข,
02:10
as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people
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ื›ืžื• ืฉื”ืจืื” ื”ื˜ื™ื™ืก ืื ื“ืจืืก ืœื•ื‘ื™ืฅ ื›ืฉื”ื›ืจื™ื— 149 ืื ืฉื™ื
02:14
to join him in his suicide,
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ืœื”ืฆื˜ืจืš ืืœื™ื• ื‘ื”ืชืื‘ื“ื•ืช,
02:16
smashing a plane into the French Alps.
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ื‘ืจื™ืกื•ืง ื”ืžื˜ื•ืก ืขืœ ื”ืืœืคื™ื ื”ืฆืจืคืชื™ื.
02:19
And there are other examples of this.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื“ื•ื’ืžืื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช ืœื›ืš.
02:21
And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,
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ื•ืื ื™ ืžืคื—ื“ ืฉื™ื”ื™ื• ื ืฉืงื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืงื˜ืœื ื™ื™ื ืžืžื˜ื•ืกื™ื ื‘ืขืชื™ื“ ื”ืงืจื•ื‘,
02:26
ones not made of metal.
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ื›ืืœื” ืฉืื™ื ื ืขืฉื•ื™ื™ื ืžืžืชื›ืช.
02:29
So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue
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ืื– ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืฉืงื•ืœ ืืช ื›ืœืœ ื”ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ื”ืืคื•ืงืœื™ืคื˜ื™ื™ื ืฉื™ื•ื•ืฆืจื•
02:34
if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field
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ืื ืจื•ืฆื— ื”ืžื•ื ื™ื ืื•ื‘ื“ื ื™ ื™ืชืคื•ืก ื˜ืจืžืค ืขืœ ืชื—ื•ื ืžืชืงื“ื
02:39
that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.
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ืฉื˜ื•ืžืŸ ื‘ื—ื•ื‘ื• ืœืจื•ื‘ ื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืช ืœื ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœื•ืช ืœื—ื‘ืจื”.
02:43
Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of people
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ืื™ืคืฉื”ื• ื‘ืขื•ืœื, ื™ืฉ ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืงื˜ื ื” ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื
02:46
who would attempt, however ineptly,
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ืฉื”ื™ื• ืžื ืกื™ื, ื’ื ืื ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื›ื•ืฉืœ,
02:49
to kill us all if they could just figure out how.
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ืœื”ืจื•ื’ ืืช ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืื ืจืง ื”ื™ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืื™ืš.
02:52
The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,
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ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉื”ื™ื•ืจื” ืžื•ื’ืืก ื”ื™ื” ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื,
02:55
but with seven and a half billion of us,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฉื‘ืขื” ื•ื—ืฆื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“,
02:57
this is a nonzero population.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืœื ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืจื™ืงื”.
02:59
There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.
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ืงื™ื™ืžื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ืžื•ืกืจื™ื™ื ืื•ื‘ื“ื ื™ื™ื.
03:02
We've already seen that.
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ื›ื‘ืจ ืจืื™ื ื• ืืช ื–ื”.
03:03
There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.
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ื™ืฉ ืื ืฉื™ื ืขื ื”ืคืจืขื•ืช ืžืฆื‘ื™ ืจื•ื—, ืฉืืคื™ืœื• ืื™ื ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืฉืœื•ื˜ ื‘ื”ืŸ.
03:07
There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.
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ื™ืฉ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืกื‘ืœื• ืžื˜ืจืื•ืžื•ืช ืžืขืจืขืจื•ืช ื•ื›ื•'.
03:12
As for the corollary group,
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ื•ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืฉืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช,
03:14
its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,
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ื”ื™ื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืจื™ืงื” ืชืžื™ื“, ืขื“ ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื”ืงืจื”,
03:19
when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances
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ื›ืฉืคืชืื•ื, ื”ืžื ื”ื™ื’ื™ื ืฉืœ ืฉืชื™ ืžืขืฆืžื•ืช ืขื•ืœืžื™ื•ืช
03:22
attained the ability to blow up the world.
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ื”ืฉื™ื’ื• ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืœืคื•ืฆืฅ ืืช ื”ืขื•ืœื.
03:26
The number of people with actual doomsday buttons
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ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืขื ื›ืคืชื•ืจ ื™ื•ื ื”ื“ื™ืŸ ืืžื™ืชื™
03:29
has stayed fairly stable since then.
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ื ืฉืืจ ื“ื™ ืงื‘ื•ืข ืžืื–.
03:32
But I'm afraid it's about to grow,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืžืคื—ื“ ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ื•ืœืš ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ,
03:34
and not just to three.
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ื•ืœื ืจืง ืœืฉืœื•ืฉ.
03:36
This is going off the charts.
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ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™.
03:37
I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ื–ื” ื™ืจืื” ื›ืžื• ืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ืขืกืงื™ืช ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
03:40
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
03:44
And the reason is,
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ื”ื™ื,
03:45
we're in the era of exponential technologies,
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ืขื™ื“ืŸ ืฉืœ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžืขืจื™ื›ื™ืช,
03:48
which routinely take eternal impossibilities
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ืฉื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืงื‘ื•ืข ืœื•ืงื—ืช ืื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื ืฆื—ื™ืช
03:53
and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses
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ื•ื”ื•ืคื›ืช ืื•ืชื” ืœื›ื•ื—-ืขืœ ืฉืœ ื’ืื•ืŸ ืื• ืฉื ื™ื™ื
03:58
and -- this is the big part --
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ื•-- ื–ื” ื”ื—ืœืง ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ --
04:00
then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.
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ืžืคื™ืฆื” ืืช ื”ื›ื•ื—ื•ืช ื”ืืœื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœื›ื•ืœื.
04:03
Now, here's a benign example.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ื ื” ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ื ื—ืžื“ื”.
04:05
If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,
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ืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœืฉื—ืง ื“ืžืงื” ื ื’ื“ ืžื—ืฉื‘ ื‘1952,
04:10
you literally had to be that guy,
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื”ืื“ื ื”ื–ื”,
04:13
then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,
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ื•ืื– ืœื”ื•ืจื•ืช ืœืื—ื“ ืž- 19 ื”ืขื•ืชืงื™ื ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ ื”ื–ื”,
04:18
then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.
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ื•ืื– ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืžื•ื— ื”ืงืจื•ื‘ ืœื ื•ื‘ืœ ืฉืœื›ื, ื›ื“ื™ ืœืœืžื“ ืื•ืชื• ื“ืžืงื”.
04:22
That was the bar.
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ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื”ืจืฃ.
04:24
Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,
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ื”ื™ื•ื, ืืชื ืจืง ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื›ื™ืจ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืฉืžื›ื™ืจ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ื˜ืœืคื•ืŸ,
04:29
because computing is an exponential technology.
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ื›ื™ ืžื™ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื”ื•ื ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžืขืจื™ื›ื™ืช.
04:33
So is synthetic biology,
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ื›ืš ื’ื ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืกื™ื ืชื˜ื™ืช,
04:35
which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
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ืฉืžืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืืชื™ื™ื—ืก ืขืœื™ื” ื›"ืกื™ื ื‘ื™ื•".
04:38
And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious
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ื•ื‘- 2011, ืฆืžื“ ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ืขืฉื• ืžืฉื”ื• ืžื‘ืจื™ืง
04:43
and unprecedented as the checkers trick
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ื•ื—ืกืจ ืชืงื“ื™ื ื›ืžื• ื”ื˜ืจื™ืง ืฉืœ ื”ื“ืžืงื”
04:46
with H5N1 flu.
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ืขื ื ื’ื™ืฃ ืฉืคืขืช H5N1.
04:49
This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
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ื–ื” ื–ืŸ ืฉื”ื•ืจื’ ืขื“ 60 ืื—ื•ื– ืžื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืื•ืชื ื”ื•ื ืžื“ื‘ื™ืง,
04:54
more than Ebola.
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืื‘ื•ืœื”.
04:55
But it is so uncontagious
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืœื ืžื“ื‘ืง
04:58
that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ืจื’ ืคื—ื•ืช ืž- 50 ืื ืฉื™ื ืžืื– 2015.
05:02
So these researchers edited H5N1's genome
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ืื– ื”ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ื”ืืœื• ืขืจื›ื• ืืช ื”ื’ื ื•ื ืฉืœ ื”- H5N1
05:06
and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.
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ื•ืขืฉื• ืื•ืชื• ืงื˜ืœื ื™ ื‘ืื•ืชื” ื”ืžื™ื“ื”, ืื‘ืœ ื’ื ืžืื•ื“ ืžื“ื‘ืง.
05:11
The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals
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ืขื ืฃ ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื—ื“ ืžืฉื ื™ ื”ื’ืœื™ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื“ืขื™ื™ื ื”ืžื•ื‘ื™ืœื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื
05:14
said if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic
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ืืžืจ ืฉืื ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื™ื™ืฆื ื”ื—ื•ืฆื”, ื”ื•ื ื›ื ืจืื” ื™ื’ืจื•ื ืœืžื’ื™ืคื” ืขื•ืœืžื™ืช
05:18
with perhaps millions of deaths.
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ืขื ืื•ืœื™ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ื ื™ ื”ืจื•ื’ื™ื.
05:20
And Dr. Paul Keim said
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ื•ื“"ืจ ืคืื•ืœ ืงื™ื™ื ืืžืจ
05:22
he could not think of an organism as scary as this,
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ืฉื”ื•ื ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ืื•ืจื’ื ื™ื–ื ืžืคื—ื™ื“ ื›ืžื• ื–ื”,
05:26
which is the last thing I personally want to hear
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ืฉื–ื” ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ ืฉืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืฉืžื•ืข
05:29
from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
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ืžื™ื•ืฉื‘ ื”ืจืืฉ ื”ืžื•ืขืฆื” ื”ืžื™ื™ืขืฆืช ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ืช ืœืžื“ืข ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื”ื’ื ืช ื‘ื™ื•.
05:34
And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --
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ื•ื“ืจืš ืื’ื‘, ื“"ืจ ืงื™ื™ื ืืžืจ ื’ื --
05:37
["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]
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["ืื ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื’ื—ืœืช ืžืคื—ื™ื“ื” ื‘ื›ืœืœ ื‘ื™ื—ืก ืœื–ื”"]
ื•ื”ื•ื ื’ื ืื—ื“ ืžืืœื”.
05:40
And he's also one of these.
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05:41
[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)
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[ืžื•ืžื—ื” ืœื’ื—ืœืช] (ืฆื—ื•ืง)
05:43
Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืคืจื™ืฆื” ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ืฉืœ 2011
05:46
is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.
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ื”ืŸ ืฉื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืขืฉื• ืื•ืชื”, ืœื ื”ืชื›ื•ื•ื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื ื–ืง.
05:49
They're virologists.
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ื”ื ื•ื™ืจื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื.
05:51
They believed they were advancing science.
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ื”ื ื”ืืžื™ื ื• ืฉื”ื ืžืงื“ืžื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื“ืข.
05:53
The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,
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ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ืจืขื•ืช ื”ืŸ ืฉื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืœื ืงื•ืคืืช ื‘ืžืงื•ื,
05:57
and over the next few decades,
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ื•ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื ื”ื‘ืื™ื,
05:59
their feat will become trivially easy.
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ื”ื”ื™ืฉื’ ืฉืœื”ื ื™ื”ืคื•ืš ืœืžืฉื”ื• ื˜ืจื™ื•ื•ื™ืืœื™.
06:02
In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,
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ื”ืืžืช, ื–ื” ื›ื‘ืจ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืคืฉื•ื˜, ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื›ืคื™ ืฉืœืžื“ื ื• ืืชืžื•ืœ ื‘ื‘ื•ืงืจ,
06:06
just two years after they did their work,
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ืจืง ื›ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ืื—ืจื™ ืฉื”ื ืขืฉื• ืืช ืขื‘ื•ื“ืชื,
06:08
the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.
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ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืงืจื™ืกืคืจ ื ืจืชืžื” ืœืขืจื™ื›ืช ื’ื ื•ื.
06:11
This was a radical breakthrough
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ื–ื• ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืคืจื™ืฆืช ื“ืจืš ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช
06:13
that makes gene editing massively easier --
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ื–ื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืืช ืขืจื™ื›ืช ื”ื’ื ื™ื ืœืงืœื” ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช --
06:17
so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.
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ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืงืœื” ืฉื›ื‘ืจ ืžืœืžื“ื™ื ืขืœ ืงืจื™ืกืคืจ ื‘ืชื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื.
06:20
And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.
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ื•ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ืžืชืงื“ื ืžื”ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืžื—ืฉื•ื‘.
06:24
That slow, stodgy white line up there?
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ื”ืงื• ื”ืœื‘ืŸ, ื”ืื™ื˜ื™, ื”ืžืฉืขืžื ืฉื ืœืžืขืœื”?
06:27
That's Moore's law.
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ื–ื” ื—ื•ืง ืžื•ืจ.
06:29
That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.
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ืฉืžืจืื” ืœื ื• ื›ืžื” ืžื”ืจ ืžื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื ื”ื™ื” ื–ื•ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
06:33
That steep, crazy-fun green line,
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ื”ืงื• ื”ื™ืจื•ืง, ื›ื™ืคื™ ื‘ื˜ื™ืจื•ืฃ ื•ืชืœื•ืœ,
06:36
that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
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ืžืจืื” ืœื ื• ื›ืžื” ืžื”ืจ ืจื™ืฆื•ืฃ ื’ื ื™ื ื ืขืฉื” ื–ื•ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
06:40
Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืขืจื™ื›ืช ื’ื ื™ื ื•ืกื™ื ืชื–ื” ื•ืจื™ืฆื•ืฃ,
06:44
they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.
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ื”ื ืชื—ื•ืžื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ืžืื•ื“ ืงืฉื•ืจื™ื.
06:46
And they're all moving in these headlong rates.
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ื•ื”ื ื›ื•ืœื ืžืชืงื“ืžื™ื ื‘ืงืฆื‘ื™ื ื”ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ื”ืืœื”.
06:49
And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.
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ื•ื”ืžืคืชื—ื•ืช ืœืžืžืœื›ื” ื”ื ืงื‘ืฆื™ ื”ืžื™ื“ื” ื”ืžืžืฉ ืงื˜ื ื™ื ื”ืืœื”
06:52
That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
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ื–ื” ื”ืขืชืง ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื ื•ื ืฉืœ H5N1.
06:56
The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.
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ื›ื•ืœื• ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื›ื ืก ื‘ืชืŸืš ื“ืคื™ื ื‘ื•ื“ื“ื™ื.
06:59
And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.
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ื•ื›ืŸ, ืืœ ืชื“ืื’ื•, ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืžืฆื•ื ืืช ื–ื” ื‘ื’ื•ื’ืœ ื›ืฉืชื’ื™ืขื• ื”ื‘ื™ืชื”.
07:03
It's all over the internet, right?
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ื–ื” ื‘ื›ืœ ืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
07:04
And the part that made it contagious
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ื•ื”ื—ืœืง ืฉื”ื•ืคืš ืืช ื–ื” ืœืžื“ื‘ืง
07:06
could well fit on a single Post-it note.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื›ื ืก ืœืคืชืง ื“ื‘ื™ืง ืื—ื“.
07:09
And once a genius makes a data file,
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ื•ื‘ืจื’ืข ืฉื’ืื•ืŸ ืื—ื“ ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืงื•ื‘ืฅ ืžื™ื“ืข,
07:13
any idiot can copy it,
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ื›ืœ ืื™ื“ื™ื•ื˜ ื™ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ืขืชื™ืง ืื•ืชื•,
07:15
distribute it worldwide
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ื•ืœื”ืคื™ืฅ ืื•ืชื• ืœื›ืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื
07:17
or print it.
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ืื• ืœื”ื“ืคื™ืก ืื•ืชื•.
07:19
And I don't just mean print it on this,
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ื•ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ ืœื”ื“ืคื™ืก ืืช ื–ื” ืขืœ ื–ื”,
07:21
but soon enough, on this.
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ืืœื, ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ื”ืงืจื•ื‘ ื™ื—ืกื™ืช, ืขืœ ื–ื”.
07:24
So let's imagine a scenario.
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ืื– ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ ืžืงืจื”.
07:27
Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,
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ื ื’ื™ื“ ืฉื”ืฉื ื” ื”ื™ื 2026, ื‘ื—ืจื ื• ืฉื ื” ืฉืจื™ืจื•ืชื™ืช,
07:30
and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance science
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ื•ื•ื™ืจื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ืžื‘ืจื™ืงื”, ืฉืžืงื•ื•ื” ืœืงื“ื ืืช ื”ืžื“ืข
07:33
and better understand pandemics,
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ื•ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื’ื™ืคื•ืช,
07:35
designs a new bug.
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ื™ื•ืฆืจืช ืžื—ืœื” ื—ื“ืฉื”.
07:37
It's as contagious as chicken pox,
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ื”ื™ื ืžื“ื‘ืงืช ื›ืžื• ืื‘ืขื‘ื•ืขื•ืช ืจื•ื—,
07:40
it's as deadly as Ebola,
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ื•ืงื˜ืœื ื™ืช ื›ืžื• ืื‘ื•ืœื”,
07:42
and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื“ื•ื’ืจืช ื‘ืžืฉืš ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื™ื ืžืชืคืจืฆืช,
07:46
so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.
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ื›ืš ืฉื›ืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื ื’ื•ืข ืœืคื ื™ ื”ืกื™ืžืŸ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืฉื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื”.
07:50
Then, her university gets hacked.
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ื•ืื–, ืคื•ืจืฆื™ื ืœืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ื” ืฉืœื”.
07:53
And of course, this is not science fiction.
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ื•ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื–ื” ืœื ืžื“ืข ื‘ื“ื™ื•ื ื™.
07:55
In fact, just one recent US indictment
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืจืง ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื™ืฆื ื›ืชื‘ ืื™ืฉื•ื ืืžืจื™ืงืื™
07:57
documents the hacking of over 300 universities.
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ืฉืžืชืขื“ ืคืจื™ืฆื” ืœืžืขืœ 300 ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืื•ืช.
08:01
So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.
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ืื– ื”ืงื•ื‘ืฅ ืขื ื”ื’ื ื•ื ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ืœื” ื™ืชืคืฉื˜ ื‘ืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืคื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืืคืœื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜.
08:07
And once a file is out there, it never comes back --
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ื•ื‘ืจื’ืข ืฉืงื•ื‘ืฅ ื ืžืฆื ืฉื, ื”ื•ื ืืฃ ืคืขื ืœื ื—ื•ื–ืจ --
08:11
just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.
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ืชืฉืืœื• ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืฉืžื ื”ืœ ืื•ืœืคืŸ ืกืจื˜ื™ื ืื• ื—ื‘ืจืช ืžื•ื–ื™ืงื”.
08:16
So now maybe in 2026,
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ืื– ืื•ืœื™ ื‘- 2026
08:18
it would take a true genius like our virologist
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ื–ื” ื™ื“ืจื•ืฉ ื’ืื•ืŸ ืืžื™ืชื™ ื›ืžื• ื”ื•ื™ืจื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ืฉืœื ื•
08:21
to make the actual living critter,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื—ื™ ืืžื™ืชื™,
08:23
but 15 years later,
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ืื‘ืœ 15 ืฉื ื™ื ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ,
08:25
it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.
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ื–ื” ืื•ืœื™ ื™ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืจืง ืžื“ืคืกืช ื“ื "ื ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืžืฆื•ื ื‘ื›ืœ ืชื™ื›ื•ืŸ.
08:29
And if not?
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ื•ืื ืœื?
08:31
Give it a couple of decades.
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ืชื ื• ืœื–ื” ื›ืžื” ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื.
08:34
So, a quick aside:
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ืื– ื‘ืžืืžืจ ืžื•ืกื’ืจ:
08:36
Remember this slide here?
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ื–ื•ื›ืจื™ื ืืช ื”ืฉืงืฃ ื”ื–ื”?
08:37
Turn your attention to these two words.
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ืชืคื ื• ืืช ืชืฉื•ืžืช ื”ืœื‘ ืฉืœื›ื ืœืฉืชื™ ื”ืžื™ืœื™ื ื”ืืœื”.
08:40
If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,
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ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ื™ื ืกื” ืืช ื–ื”, ื•ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืจืง 0.1 ืื—ื•ื– ืืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™,
08:47
eight million people die.
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ืฉืžื•ื ื” ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื ื™ืžื•ืชื•.
08:48
That's 2,500 9/11s.
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ื–ื” 2,500 ืคื™ื’ื•ืขื™ ื”- 11 ื‘ืกืคื˜ืžื‘ืจ.
08:52
Civilization would survive,
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ื”ืื ื•ืฉื•ืช ืชืฉืจื•ื“.
08:55
but it would be permanently disfigured.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื ืชื”ื™ื” ืžืฆื•ืœืงืช ืœืชืžื™ื“.
08:58
So this means we need to be concerned about anybody
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ืื– ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื“ืื•ื’ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื›ืœ ืื—ื“
09:01
who has the faintest shot on goal,
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ืืช ื”ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื”ื›ื™ ืงื˜ื ื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช,
09:03
not just geniuses.
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ืœื ืจืง ื’ืื•ื ื™ื.
09:06
So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuses
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ืื– ื”ื™ื•ื, ื™ืฉ ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืงื˜ื ื” ืฉืœ ื’ืื•ื ื™ื
09:11
who probably could make a doomsday bug
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ืฉื›ื ืจืื” ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ื—ื™ื™ื“ืง ื™ื•ื ื”ื“ื™ืŸ
09:13
that's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.
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ืฉื”ื•ื 0.1 ืื—ื•ื– ืืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ื•ืื•ืœื™ ื˜ื™ืคื” ื™ื•ืชืจ.
09:17
They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.
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ื”ื ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื ืฉื™ื ื™ืฆื™ื‘ื™ื ื•ืžืฆืœื™ื—ื™ื ื•ืžืžืฉ ืœื ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ื”ื–ืืช.
09:22
So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.
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ืื– ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉืื ื™ ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ื‘ืกื“ืจ ืขื ื–ื”.
09:26
But what about after technology improves
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืื ืื—ืจื™ ืฉื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืชืฉืชืคืจ
09:29
and diffuses
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ื•ืชื•ืคืฅ
09:30
and thousands of life science grad students are enabled?
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ื•ืืœืคื™ ื‘ื•ื’ืจื™ ืžื“ืขื™ ื”ื—ื™ื™ื ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช?
09:34
Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?
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ื”ืื ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื™ืฆื™ื‘ ืœื’ืžืจื™?
09:37
Or how about a few years after that,
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ืื• ืžื” ืื ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื ืื—ืจ ื›ืš,
09:39
where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?
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ื•ื›ืœ ืกื˜ื•ื“ื ื˜ ืœื—ื•ืฅ ืœืงื“ื ืจืคื•ืื” ื™ื•ื›ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช?
09:43
At some point in that time frame,
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ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ื›ืœืฉื”ื•,
09:45
these circles are going to intersect,
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ื”ืžืขื’ืœื™ื ื”ืืœื” ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœื”ืชืœื›ื“,
09:47
because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of people
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ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืขืœ ืžืื•ืช ืืœืคื™ื ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื
09:51
throughout the world.
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ื‘ืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื.
09:52
And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Joker
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ื•ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื›ื•ืœืœืช ื’ื ืืช ื”ื‘ื—ื•ืจ ื”ื”ื•ื ืฉื”ืชื—ืคืฉ ืœื’'ื•ืงืจ
09:56
and shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.
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ื•ื™ืจื” ืœืžื•ื•ืช ื‘- 12 ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ื‘ื›ื•ืจื” ืฉืœ ื‘ืื˜ืžืŸ.
09:59
That was a neuroscience PhD student
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ื”ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจื ื˜ ื‘ืžื“ืขื™ ื”ืžื•ื—
10:01
with an NIH grant.
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ืขื ืชืขื•ื“ื” ืžื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ื™ื ืœื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช.
10:05
OK, plot twist:
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ืื•ืงื™ื™, ืชืคื ื™ืช ื‘ืขืœื™ืœื”:
10:07
I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืฉืจื•ื“ ืืช ื–ื”, ืื ื ืชื—ื™ืœ ืœื”ืชืžืงื“ ื‘ื–ื” ืขื›ืฉื™ื•.
10:11
And I say this, having spent countless hours
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ื•ืื ื™ ืื•ืžืจ ื–ืืช ืื—ืจื™ ืฉื‘ื™ืœื™ืชื™ ืื™ื ืกืคื•ืจ ืฉืขื•ืช
10:14
interviewing global leaders in synbio
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ื‘ืจื™ืื™ื•ืŸ ืžื ื”ื™ื’ื™ื ืขื•ืœืžื™ื ื‘ืกื™ื ื‘ื™ื•
10:17
and also researching their work for science podcasts I create.
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ื•ื’ื ื‘ื—ืงืจ ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื”ื ืœืคื•ื“ืงืืกื˜ ืžื“ืขื™ ืฉื™ืฆืจืชื™.
10:21
I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet --
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ื”ืชื—ืœืชื™ ืœืคื—ื“ ืžื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื”ื, ืœืžืงืจื” ืฉืœื ื”ื‘ื”ืจืชื™ ืืช ื–ื” --
10:27
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
10:28
but more than that, to revere its potential.
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื–ื”, ืื ื™ ืžืขืจื™ืฅ ืืช ื”ืคื•ื˜ื ื™ืฆืืœ ืฉืœ ื–ื”.
10:32
This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environment
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื–ื” ื™ืจืคื ืกืจื˜ืŸ, ื™ืจืคื ืืช ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื”
10:35
and stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.
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ื•ื™ืคืกื™ืง ืืช ื”ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœ ื”ืื›ื–ืจื™ ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืจื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื.
10:39
So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?
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ืื– ืื™ืš ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื™ื’ื™ื ืืช ื›ืœ ื–ื” ืžื‘ืœื™, ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื, ืœื”ืฉืžื™ื“ ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื•?
10:44
First thing: like it or not, synbio is here,
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ื“ื‘ืจ ืจืืฉื•ืŸ, ืชืื”ื‘ื• ืืช ื–ื” ืื• ืœื, ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ืกื™ื ืชื˜ื™ืช ืคื”,
10:47
so let's embrace the technology.
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ืื– ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืืžืฅ ืืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
10:49
If we do a tech ban,
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ืื ื ืืกื•ืจ ืขืœ ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”,
10:51
that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.
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ืจืง ื ืขื‘ื™ืจ ืืช ื”ื”ื’ื” ืœืฉื—ืงื ื™ื ืจืขื™ื.
10:54
Unlike nuclear programs,
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ืฉืœื ื›ืžื• ืชื•ื›ื ื™ื•ืช ื’ืจืขื™ื ื™ื•ืช,
10:57
biology can be practiced invisibly.
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืขืกื•ืง ื‘ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื‘ืœื™ ืฉื™ืฉื™ืžื• ืœื‘.
10:59
Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treaties
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ื”ืคืจื” ืกื•ื‘ื™ื™ื˜ื™ืช ืžืกื™ื‘ื™ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืกื›ืžื™ื ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื ืฉืงื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื
11:03
made that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.
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ื”ื‘ื”ื™ืจื• ื–ืืช, ื›ืžื• ื›ืœ ืžืขื‘ื“ืช ืกืžื™ื ืœื ื—ื•ืงื™ืช ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
11:07
Secondly, enlist the experts.
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ืฉื ื™ืช, ืœื’ื™ื™ืก ืืช ื”ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื.
11:10
Let's sign them up and make more of them.
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืจืฉื•ื ืื•ืชื, ื•ื ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื”ื.
11:12
For every million and one bioengineers we have,
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ืœื›ืœ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื•ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื ื“ืกื™ ื‘ื™ื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื•,
11:14
at least a million of them are going to be on our side.
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ืœืคื—ื•ืช ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืžื”ื ื™ื”ื™ื• ื‘ืฆื“ ืฉืœื ื•.
11:18
I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.
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ืื ื™ ืžืชื›ื•ื•ืŸ, ืืœ ืงืคื•ื ื” ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืฆื“ ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ื–ื”.
11:21
The bar to being a good guy is just so low.
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ื”ืกืฃ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื“ื ื˜ื•ื‘ ื”ื•ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืžืžืฉ ื ืžื•ืš.
11:25
And massive numerical advantages do matter,
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ื•ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืžืกืคืจื™ ืขืฆื•ื ืื›ืŸ ืžืฉื ื”,
11:28
even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,
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ื’ื ื›ืฉืจืง ืื“ื ืจืข ืื—ื“ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื ื–ืง ื—ืžื•ืจ,
11:31
because among many other things,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื,
11:33
they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:
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ื”ื ื ื•ืชื ื™ื ืœื ื• ืœืžืฆื•ืช ืœื’ืžืจื™ ืืช ื–ื”:
11:35
we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืฉื ื™ื, ื•ื‘ืชืงื•ื•ื” ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื, ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืชื›ื•ื ืŸ ื•ืœืžื ื•ืข.
11:41
The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody --
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ื”ืื“ื ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืฉื™ื ืกื” ืžืฉื”ื• ื ื•ืจื -- ื•ืชืžื™ื“ ื™ื”ื™ื” ืžื™ืฉื”ื• --
11:45
may not even be born yet.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื ื•ืœื“ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ.
11:47
Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society,
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ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื‘ื, ื–ื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืืžืฅ ืฉืœ ื›ืœืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื”,
11:50
and all of you need to be a part of it,
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ื•ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื›ื ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื—ืœืง ืžื–ื”,
11:53
because we cannot ask a tiny group of experts
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืื ื• ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื“ืจื•ืฉ ืžืงื‘ื•ืฆื” ืงื˜ื ื” ืฉืœ ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
11:57
to be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,
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ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื—ืจืื™ื™ื ื’ื ืœืจื™ืกื•ืŸ ื•ื’ื ืœื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ืกื™ื ืชื˜ื™ืช,
12:02
because we already tried that with the financial system,
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ืžื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื›ื‘ืจ ื ื™ืกื™ื ื• ืืช ื–ื” ืขื ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ืช,
12:05
and our stewards became massively corrupted
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ื•ื”ืžื ื”ืœื™ื ืฉืœื ื• ื ื”ื™ื• ืžืื•ื“ ืžื•ืฉื—ืชื™ื
12:09
as they figured out how they could cut corners,
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ื›ืฉื”ื ื’ื™ืœื• ืื™ืš ื”ื ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœืขื’ืœ ืคื™ื ื•ืช,
12:11
inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of us
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ื•ืœืฉื™ื ืืช ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื
12:14
and privatize the gains,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื’ื“ื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืจื•ื•ื— ื”ืื™ืฉื™ ืฉืœื”ื,
12:16
becoming repulsively wealthy
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ื•ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ืขืฆืžื ืœืขืฉื™ืจื™ื ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื“ื•ื—ื”
12:18
while they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.
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ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉื”ื ืชื•ืงืขื™ื ืื•ืชื ื• ื‘ื—ื•ื‘ ืฉืœ 22 ื˜ืจื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ.
12:22
And more recently --
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” --
12:24
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
12:26
Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters?
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ื”ืื ืืชื ืืœื” ืฉืงื™ื‘ืœื• ืืช ืžื›ืชื‘ื™ ื”ืชื•ื“ื”?
12:29
I'm still waiting for mine.
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ืื ื™ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืžื—ื›ื” ืœืฉืœื™.
12:30
I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.
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ืคืฉื•ื˜ ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืฉื”ื ืขืกื•ืงื™ื ืžื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืืกื™ืจื™ ืชื•ื“ื”.
12:33
And much more recently,
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ื•ืžืžืฉ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื”,
12:36
online privacy started looming as a huge issue,
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ืคืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืจืฉืช ื”ืชื’ืœืชื” ื›ื‘ืขื™ื” ืขื ืงื™ืช,
12:39
and we basically outsourced it.
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืคืฉื•ื˜ ื”ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืื•ืชื” ืœื™ื“ื™ื™ื ื—ื™ืฆื•ื ื™ื•ืช.
12:41
And once again:
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ื•ืขื•ื“ ืคืขื:
12:42
privatized gains, socialized losses.
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ื”ื•ืŸ ืื™ืฉื™, ื”ืคืกื“ื™ื ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื™ื.
12:45
Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
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ืœืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืคื” ื ืžืืก ืžื”ื“ืคื•ืก ื”ื–ื”?
12:47
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
12:52
So we need a more inclusive way to safeguard our prosperity,
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื“ืจืš ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ื•ืœืœืช ืœืฉืžื™ืจื” ืขืœ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืฉืœื ื•,
12:58
our privacy
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ื”ืคืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•
12:59
and soon, our lives.
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ื•ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘, ื’ื ืขืœ ื—ื™ื™ื ื•.
13:01
So how do we do all of this?
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ืื– ืื™ืš ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืืช ื›ืœ ื–ื”?
13:04
Well, when bodies fight pathogens,
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ื˜ื•ื‘, ื›ืฉื”ื’ื•ืคื™ื ืฉืœื ื• ื ืœื—ืžื™ื ื‘ืคืชื•ื’ื ื™ื,
13:06
they use ingenious immune systems,
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ื”ื ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื’ืื•ื ื™ืช,
13:09
which are very complex and multilayered.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืžื•ืจื›ื‘ืช ืžืื•ื“ ื•ื‘ื ื•ื™ื” ืžื”ืžื•ืŸ ืฉื›ื‘ื•ืช.
13:11
Why don't we build one of these for the whole damn ecosystem?
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ืœืžื” ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืื—ืช ื›ื–ื• ืœื›ืœ ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช?
13:14
There's a year of TED Talks that could be given on this first critical layer.
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืฉื ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื™ื—ื•ืช ื˜ื“ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืฉื›ื‘ื” ื”ืงืจื™ื˜ื™ืช ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื”ื–ื•.
13:17
So these are just a couple of many great ideas that are out there.
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ืื– ื–ื” ืจืง ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืžื•ืŸ ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ืžืฆื•ื™ื ื™ื ืฉืงื™ื™ืžื™ื.
13:21
Some R and D muscle
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ืงืฆืช ืฉืจื™ืจื™ ืžื—ืงืจ ื•ืคื™ืชื•ื—
13:23
could take the very primitive pathogen sensors that we currently have
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ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœืงื—ืช ืืช ื—ื™ื™ืฉืŸ ื”ืคืชื•ื’ืŸ ื”ืคืจืžื™ื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ืฉื›ื‘ืจ ื™ืฉ ืœื ื•
13:28
and put them on a very steep price performance curve
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ื•ืœืฉื™ื ืื•ืชื• ื‘ืขืงื•ืžืช ืžื—ื™ืจ-ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืขื™ื ื—ื“ื”
13:31
that would quickly become ingenious
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ืฉืชื”ืคื•ืš ื‘ืžื”ื™ืจื•ืช ืœื’ืื•ื ื™ืช
13:33
and networked
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ื•ืžืงื•ืฉืจืช
13:34
and gradually as widespread as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
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ื•ื‘ื”ื“ืจื’ื” ื ืคื•ืฆื” ื›ืžื• ื’ืœืื™ ืขืฉืŸ ื•ืืคื™ืœื• ืกืžืืจื˜ืคื•ื ื™ื.
13:38
On a very related note:
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ื•ื‘ื ื•ืฉื ืงืจื•ื‘:
13:40
vaccines have all kinds of problems
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ืœื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช
13:43
when it comes to manufacturing and distribution,
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ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื•ื”ืคืฆื”,
13:46
and once they're made, they can't adapt to new threats or mutations.
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ื•ื‘ืจื’ืข ืฉื”ื ื ื•ืฆืจื™ื, ื”ื ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืกืชื’ืœ ืœืื™ื•ืžื™ื ื—ื“ืฉื™ื ืื• ืœืžื•ื˜ืฆื™ื•ืช.
13:51
We need an agile biomanufacturing base
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื‘ืกื™ืก ื™ื™ืฆื•ืจ ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ ื’ืžื™ืฉ
13:53
extending into every single pharmacy and maybe even our homes.
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ืฉื™ืชืจื—ื‘ ืœืชื•ืš ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื‘ืชื™ ื”ืžืจืงื—ืช ื•ืื•ืœื™ ืืคื™ืœื• ืœื‘ืชื™ื ืฉืœื ื•.
13:58
Printer technology for vaccines and medicines is within reach
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ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ื”ื“ืคืกื” ืœื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื ื•ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื”ืŸ ื‘ื”ื™ืฉื’ ื™ื“ื™ื ื•
14:01
if we prioritize it.
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ืื ื ืชืขื“ืฃ ืืช ื–ื”.
14:03
Next, mental health.
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ื”ื‘ื, ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ื ืคืฉื™ืช.
14:05
Many people who commit suicidal mass murder
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืžื‘ืฆืขื™ื ืจืฆื— ื”ืžื•ื ื™ ื•ืžืชืื‘ื“ื™ื
14:08
suffer from crippling, treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
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ืกื•ื‘ืœื™ื ืžืคื•ืกื˜ ื˜ืจืื•ืžื” ืื• ื“ื™ื›ืื•ืŸ ืงืฉื” ืฉืขืžื™ื“ื™ื ื‘ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ื.
14:13
We need noble researchers like Rick Doblin working on this,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ืžื›ื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ื›ืžื• ืจื™ืง ื“ื•ื‘ืœื™ืŸ ืฉื™ืขื‘ื“ื• ืขืœ ื–ื”,
14:17
but we also need the selfish jerks who are way more numerous
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ืื‘ืœ ื ืฆื˜ืจืš ื’ื ืื™ื“ื™ื•ื˜ื™ื ืื’ื•ืื™ืกื˜ื™ื, ืžื” ืฉื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื ืคื•ืฅ
14:21
to appreciate the fact that acute suffering will soon endanger all of us,
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ืฉื™ื‘ื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉืกื‘ืœ ื—ืžื•ืจ ื‘ืงืจื•ื‘ ื™ืกื›ืŸ ืืช ื›ื•ืœื ื•,
14:27
not just those afflicted.
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ืœื ืจืง ืืช ื”ืื•ืžืœืœื™ื ืฉืกื•ื‘ืœื™ื ืžืžื ื•.
14:29
Those jerks will then join us and Al Capone
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ื”ืื™ื“ื™ื•ื˜ื™ื ื”ืืœื” ื™ืฆื˜ืจืคื• ืœื ื• ื•ืœืืœ ืงืคื•ื ื”
14:32
in fighting this condition.
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ื‘ืžืœื—ืžื” ื‘ืžืฆื‘ ื”ื–ื”.
14:35
Third, each and every one of us can be and should be a white blood cell
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ืฉืœื™ืฉื™ืช, ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžืื™ืชื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœ ื•ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืชื ื“ื ืœื‘ืŸ
14:41
in this immune system.
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ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื•.
14:43
Suicidal mass murderers can be despicable, yes,
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ืจื•ืฆื—ื™ ื”ืžื•ื ื™ื ืื•ื‘ื“ื ื™ื™ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืชื•ืขื‘ื™ื, ื›ืŸ,
14:46
but they're also terribly broken and sad people,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ื’ื ืื ืฉื™ื ืžืื“ ืฉื‘ื•ืจื™ื ื•ืขืฆื•ื‘ื™ื,
14:50
and those of us who aren't need to do what we can
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ื•ืืœื” ืžืื™ืชื ื• ืฉืื™ื ื ื›ืืœื”, ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžื” ืฉืืคืฉืจ
14:53
to make sure nobody goes unloved.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื•ื•ื“ื ืฉืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ื—ื™ ืœืœื ืื”ื‘ื”.
14:56
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
15:01
Next, we need to make fighting these dangers
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื‘ื, ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื‘ืกื›ื ื•ืช ืืœื•
15:04
core to the discipline of synthetic biology.
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ืœื‘ืกื™ืก ืœืขื ืฃ ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื”ืกื™ื ืชื˜ื™ืช.
15:07
There are companies out there that at least claim
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ื™ืฉ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉื˜ื•ืขื ื•ืช
15:09
they let their engineers spend 20 percent of their time
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ืฉื”ืŸ ื ื•ืชื ื•ืช ืœืžื”ื ื“ืกื™ื ืฉืœื”ื ืœื‘ืœื•ืช 20 ืื—ื•ื– ืžื”ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืœื”ื
15:12
doing whatever they want.
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ื‘ืขืฉื™ื™ืช ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืจื•ืฆื™ื.
15:13
What if those who hire bioengineers
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ืžื” ืื ืืœื” ืฉืžืขืกื™ืงื™ื ืžื”ื ื“ืกื™-ื‘ื™ื•
15:16
and become them
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ืื• ืืœื” ืฉื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืœื›ืืœื”
15:17
give 20 percent of their time to building defenses for the common good?
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ื™ืชื ื• 20 ืื—ื•ื– ืžื”ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืœื”ื ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ื”ื’ื ื•ืช ืœืžืขืŸ ื”ื›ืœืœ?
15:23
Not a bad idea, right?
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ืœื ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืจืข, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
15:24
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
15:26
Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
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ื•ืื–, ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ: ื–ื” ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ื›ื™ืฃ.
15:28
But we need to let our minds go to some very, very dark places,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืชืช ืœืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœื ื“ื•ื“ ืœืžืงื•ืžื•ืช ืžืื•ื“, ืžืื•ื“ ืืคืœื™ื,
15:32
and thank you for letting me take you there this evening.
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ื•ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื ืฉื ืชืชื ืœื™ ืœืงื—ืช ืืชื›ื ืœืฉื ื”ืขืจื‘.
15:36
We survived the Cold War
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ืฉืจื“ื ื• ืืช ื”ืžืœื—ืžื” ื”ืงืจื”
15:38
because every one of us understood and respected the danger,
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžืื™ืชื ื• ื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื•ื›ื™ื‘ื“ ืืช ื”ืกื›ื ื”,
15:42
in part, because we had spent decades
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ื—ืœืง ืžื–ื”, ื’ื ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉื”ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื
15:45
telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories
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ื‘ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืœืขืฆืžื ื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ ืจืคืื™ื ืžื‘ื”ื™ืœื™ื
15:47
with names like "Dr. Strangelove"
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ืขื ืฉืžื•ืช ื›ืžื• "ื“ื•ืงื˜ื•ืจ ืกื˜ืจื™ื™ื ื’'ืœืื‘"
15:49
and "War Games."
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ื•"ืžืฉื—ืงื™ ืžืœื—ืžื”".
15:51
This is no time to remain calm.
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ื–ื” ืœื ื”ื–ืžืŸ ืœื”ื™ืฉืืจ ืจื’ื•ืข.
15:53
This is one of those rare times when it's incredibly productive
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ื–ื” ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื–ืžื ื™ื ื”ื ื“ื™ืจื™ื ืฉื‘ื”ื ื–ื” ืžืžืฉ ืžื•ืขื™ืœ
15:56
to freak the hell out --
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ืœื”ืชื—ืจืคืŸ ืœื’ืžืจื™ --
15:59
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
16:02
to come up with some ghost stories
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ืœื”ืžืฆื™ื ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ ืจืคืื™ื
16:04
and use our fear as fuel to fight this danger.
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ื•ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืคื—ื“ ื›ื“ืœืง ืœืžืœื—ืžื” ื‘ืกื›ื ื” ื”ื–ืืช.
16:09
Because, all these terrible scenarios I've painted --
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ื‘ื’ืœืœ, ืฉื›ืœ ื”ืชืจื—ื™ืฉื™ื ื”ื ื•ืจืื™ื™ื ืฉืฆื™ื™ืจืชื™ --
16:13
they are not destiny.
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ื”ื ืœื ื’ื•ืจืœ.
16:16
They're optional.
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ื”ื ืืคืฉืจื™ื™ื.
16:18
The danger is still kind of distant.
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ื”ืกื›ื ื” ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ื—ืกื™ืช ืจื—ื•ืงื”.
16:22
And that means it will only befall us
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ื•ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื–ื” ื™ืชืจื—ืฉ
16:25
if we allow it to.
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ืจืง ืื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื–ื”.
16:27
Let's not.
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ื‘ื•ืื• ืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ.
16:29
Thank you very much for listening.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื ืขืœ ื”ื”ืงืฉื‘ื”.
16:30
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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