The Thrilling Potential for Off-Grid Solar Energy | Amar Inamdar | TED

翻译人员: Qinghui Yu 校对人员: Yuan Yuan

There's something really incredible happening.

在这个世界上，有一些 不可思议的变化正在发生。

So there's over a billion people

目前全世界有

超过十亿的人用不上电。

who have no access to energy whatsoever across the world,

620 million of them here in Africa.

其中6200万在非洲。

It costs about 1,500 dollars to connect each household up to the grid.

每户家庭连接电网 所需的费用是1500美元。

If you are going to wait for it, it takes about nine years, on average,

如果你想等攒够了钱， 大概平均需要九年时间，

等你成功连上电时， 感觉好像一辈子都快过去了。

and that feels like a lifetime when you're trying to make that happen.

这简直是难以置信，

That's kind of unbelievable,

and it's also unacceptable.

也是无法接受的。

So let's do something about it.

所以，是时候该采取行动了。

The lightbulb comes from this idea that you have an energy system

拥有一个能源系统是 电灯泡诞生的前提。

that's made up of the ideas of Tesla

这个发明创意是由特斯拉

and the ideas of Thomas Edison.

和托马斯·爱迪生的理论综合而成的。

There was an evolution that said it's not just about the lightbulb,

这场革命可不仅仅是关于电灯泡，

it's about the whole system,

而是关于整个能源系统，

the whole energy system that goes with that lightbulb,

与电灯泡相适应的整个能源系统。

and what happened in that gilded age

在镀金时代（美国内战后至一战前），

was the creation of an industrial system

美国建立了工业体系。

that every country around the world has now started to emulate.

而如今，世界各国都纷纷效仿。

So to get to the appliances, you need to have power stations.

所以要用上家电，就得有发电站。

From power stations, you need to have infrastructure,

要想建设发电站，你需要有基础设施

and that infrastructure takes you to the point of having electricity,

来帮助你实现通电，

and you get to the lightbulbs and the appliances

然后你才能用上电灯泡和家用电器。

这一切在我们眼中，都是理所当然的。

that we all take for granted.

But the amazing thing, in a way, is that there's a revolution happening

但其可贵之处在于，这场革命发生在

in the villages and towns all around us here in East Africa.

东非的农村和乡镇中。

And the revolution is an echo of the cell phone revolution.

这场革命是对手机革命的回应。

它也是无线的，

It's wireless,

and that revolution is about solar and it's about distributed solar.

是关于分布式太阳能发电的革命。

Photons are wireless,

光子是无线的，

they fall on every rooftop,

它们洒落在每一个屋顶上，

and they generate enough power to be sufficient for every household need.

能产生巨大的电能， 足以满足每个家庭的用电需要。

所以，这是一个极其伟大的革命。

So that's an incredible thing.

There's also a problem with it.

不过有一个问题。

Up until now, the technology hasn't been there to make it happen,

直到现在，这项技术 还未能在东非成功推行，

and the mindset has been that we have to have the grid

而我们的理念是，我们必须有电网，

to provide industrial growth

才能促进工业增长，

and let countries develop and create jobs and industrialize.

让各国蓬勃发展，创造更多就业机会， 实现工业化社会。

而我们目前面临的困境是

So we've gotten ourselves to the point

where actually the costs of building these grids

建造电网以及遵循这种发展模式

and following that pattern of development

所需要的费用之大

are really unsustainable.

实在是难以为继。

If you add up the deficits that all of the utilities run in Africa,

如果你把所有在非洲运行的 公共事业的赤字加起来，

sub-Saharan Africa,

再加上撒哈拉以南非洲地区的，

you get to a number of 21 billion dollars every year

你得到的数字将会是 每年210亿美元，

to maintain that system and keep it going.

需要这样一笔巨大的资金 才能维护这个系统继续运行。

So an extraordinary amount of resources

因此大量的资源

that's been put in to creating a system

都已经被投入于建设这个系统，

that ultimately we will have to wait a very long time for,

但结果，这个系统需要我们 等很久才能完全落实，

and when it comes,

等到真正建成的那天，

it often doesn't come with sufficient robustness

这个体系往往缺乏足够的稳固性，

to allow us to go down that path to development.

无法维持国家的持续发展。

So what a shame.

这实在是太遗憾了。

But here's what's happening,

但是也有好消息。

and here's the opportunity that I think we should all get excited about.

我认为这其中存在着 巨大的机遇等待我们发掘。

So there's a group of companies

那么有一些公司

that have been chipping away at this problem over the last 10 years,

在过去十年里一直在尝试 一步一步解决这个问题，

and this group of companies

这些公司

have recognized the reality that there's a great big nuclear reactor

已经意识到有一个超大型核反应堆

up there in the sky,

就处于我们头顶上的天空，

and that Africa is more endowed with that solar power

而非洲的太阳能资源更是得天独厚，

that comes from the sky, the sun,

在非洲，太阳赐予的能量

than almost any other continent.

几乎比任何其他大陆都要多。

So the opportunity has come to convert some of that solar power,

因此机会就在于将部分太阳能，

wireless power, into energy at the household level.

这种无线能源转化为家用电能。

And three things have happened at the same time.

在此过程中，还同时发生了三个变化。

First, the costs of solar productivity have come down.

一是太阳能发电的成本已经下降了。

So putting a panel on your roof and generating power from it,

因此，在你家屋顶上 安装太阳能板来发电，

that cost has absolutely collapsed over the last 30 years,

这一成本在过去的30年间 已经大幅下降了，

and it's gone down by 95 percent.

降幅达95％。

Second, the appliance network.

二是关于家电网络。

So the group of appliances that we've all gotten used to,

这些家用电器我们都已经用习惯了，

we all want and we all need, we all see as part of our everyday lives

它们是我们想要甚至必需的， 被我们视作是日常生活的一部分，

that give us health and security,

保障了我们的健康和安全，

those appliances have come down in cost.

而那些电器的成本也都下降了。

So if you take the LED lightbulb, for example, a very simple thing,

举一个简单的例子，如果你用LED灯泡，

they're now 85 percent less than they were five years ago,

它们现在的价格比5年前降低了85％。

and their efficiency, when you compare them to an incandescent bulb,

但如果你把它们的效率 与白炽灯进行比较，

like the lightbulb I showed in the previous slide,

就是我在之前的幻灯片中 展示过的那种灯泡，

你会发现两者有着天壤之别。

is incredible.

They give you 10 times the amount of light,

LED灯提供的光能是白炽灯的10倍，

and they last 30 times as long.

而它们的寿命期白炽灯的30倍。

And then the last thing that's happened is of course the cell phone revolution,

最后一件无疑是与手机革命有关，

事实上我们正在 借助手机革命的浪潮，

so we're piggybacking off the cell phone revolution,

and we can now make decentralized customers make small payments

目前，我们可以让零散客户

for bits of equipment and appliances

为一些设备和家电付小额款项，

where actually they're now affordable.

实际上他们现在是负担得起的。

We can pay them off over a daily or a weekly schedule.

我们可以按日或按周分期结清。

So this is an incredible change in the economy that's happening,

这对非洲经济而言 是一个巨大的飞跃。

and it's really opened up something very, very innovative.

它的确带来了一些 非常有创意的变化。

So I'm going to introduce you to a lady I met with last week.

现在，我要给你们介绍 一位我上周认识的女士。

Her name's Susan.

她叫苏珊。

It may not look like it,

也许看起来不太像，

but Susan is a representative of a $27 billion market.

但事实上她代表着 价值270亿美元的市场。

无数像苏珊一样的人 每年共计花费270亿美元

27 billion dollars is what people like Susan spend every year

on cell phone charging,

在手机充电、

flashlight batteries and kerosene to light their homes.

手电筒电池、 以及家用照明的煤油上。

So Susan is a proud owner of a small solar system.

苏珊很自豪，她仿佛拥有了 一个小太阳系来满足她的用电需求。

It's a kit rather than a planetary thing,

这是一整套设备而非单件器具，

so a small solar system,

所以是一个小太阳系，

and her small solar system allows her to have a couple of lightbulbs,

而她的小太阳系让她 拥有了几个电灯泡，

and she's made this transition, this jump, from kerosene into light.

她实现了从煤油到电灯的跨越。

She has four or five lights and a radio.

她拥有四到五个灯和一个收音机。

It's fantastic, and she talks about it.

这真的很棒。 她谈起她改变后的生活。

She talks about her kids doing homework at night because she has light.

她说，她的孩子晚上 可以做功课了，因为家里有灯。

I'm not sure what the kids feel about that.

虽然我不确定孩子们感觉如何。

She talks about the fact that she can go out at 4am and look after the cows,

但苏珊说她可以凌晨4点 出门去照料奶牛，

and she's not so worried,

而且丝毫不用担心天太黑，

but also, with a little twinkle in her eye,

谈到动情处，她眼中 甚至有泪光在闪烁。

她说在晚上，灯光将 冰冷的房子变成温暖的家。

she talks about how light turns her house into a home at night.

She's not scared of her own house at night,

她现在晚上不用再害怕 自己的房子了，

because it has light in it, and I thought that was amazing.

因为家里有灯，这真的很棒。

So Susan does something that many customers of these companies

苏珊做了一些事情， 和我提到的公司的顾客

that I talked about do,

做的事情不谋而合，

and she forces us to innovate.

她迫使我们去创新。

She challenges companies, saying, "I've got the radio and the lights.

她给公司提出挑战， 说：“我已经有收音机和灯了。

但我还想要一台电视机。

You know what? I'd like a TV.

I'd like to entertain, educate me and my kids.

我想要丰富娱乐生活， 想通过电视自学，并教育孩子。

And then I would like to have some hair clippers for my kids,

其次，为了我的孩子考虑， 我还想要几个理发器，

you know, to cut my kids' hair, and I'd love to have a fridge.

我得替孩子理发， 此外我还很想有一个冰箱。”

And she's coined something

她创造了一些

that the energy world is really hungry to do.

能源行业迫切希望实现的事情。

The idea that she's coined is the energy ladder.

她提出的是“能源阶梯”的想法。

It starts, again, with a lightbulb. Right?

这次还是从一个灯泡开始。

And the lightbulb is an idea that we can get our kids to do homework,

灯泡只是一个初步想法， 它让我们的孩子能够在家做功课，

and very cheap, about five dollars,

而且很便宜，大概只要五美元，

and we can get it distributed.

我们可以分发灯泡。

But then let's go up from there.

但我们要从更高的层次看。

This is the kit that Susan has:

这是苏珊所拥有的：

four lightbulbs, radio, maybe a little flashlight,

四个灯泡，一个收音机， 也许还有一个小手电筒，

a little solar panel on the roof.

还有屋顶上的一个小太阳能电池板。

And then let's go up again.

我们再上一层。

We can get maybe at about 500 dollars,

这一套大概还需要500美元，

the previous kit was maybe $150,

而之前拥有的全部家电配件 总价值约150美元，

again, paid for over time,

这次也是分期付款，

two years to pay it all off,

两年内全部付清，

you can get the TV,

你就可以拿到电视，

so the lightbulbs and the TV.

那么这时就拥有了灯泡和电视。

And you start to ask yourself, "So where is this headed?"

于是你开始问自己， “这一理念将指引我们走向何方？”

Is this headed here,

这是否会

where we can have distributed systems

让我们可以拥有分布式系统，

with the right infrastructure to provide power

配备有合适的基础设施，

for our hospitals and our schools?

为我们的医院和学校来提供电力？

And really how far can this go?

这真的能帮助我们实现这些吗？

And this is the mindset shift that I think is really exciting.

不过这种心态上的转变 真的很鼓舞人心。

How far can we go?

我们到底能走多远？

Could it get up to here?

这种理念真的能奏效吗？

You know, this is the conceptual design for one of the world's biggest factories,

要知道，这一概念设计 是来自于世界上最大的工厂之一，

designed to be fully solar-powered and fully off grid.

旨在实现完全依靠 太阳能供电的离网型照明。

Maybe we can get that.

也许我们是可以做到的。

So there's a generation of these companies

确实有这样一群公司

that are out there doing this work and creating thousands of jobs,

在坚持朝着这个方向努力， 创造了数以千计的工作机会，

creating, selling, tens of thousands of these solar systems,

制造并销售了数以万计的 这种太阳能发电系统，

so bringing tens of thousands of families into light,

让无数家庭用上电灯，

and tackling that big $1 billion problem that I talked about at the beginning,

并正在解决我之前提过的 那个10亿美元的大问题。

and really innovating.

它们才是真的在创新。

And what they're doing is, they're not only energy companies,

此外，它们的业务范围很广， 不仅仅是能源公司，

they're also credit finance companies,

还是信贷财务公司，

so they're bringing people into an economy.

带人们参与进经济社会中。

They're retail companies,

它们还是零售公司，

so they're taking products out to people in the connecting markets.

把产品销售给中介市场的客户。

And they're appliance companies,

它们还是家电公司，

so they're developing extraordinary products

正在研发卓越的、

that are very efficient and very cheap.

高效而又廉价的产品。

So an extraordinary thing is happening out there

因此，伟大的变化正在那里发生，

that's worth recognizing.

它值得世界的认可。

And where does it take us?

然而，它又将带领我们走向何方？

From a governmental perspective, from a social perspective,

从政府和社会的角度来看，

it takes us out to two really big goals.

它引领我们去实现 两个非常宏大的目标。

We aspire towards energy access for everybody,

一是我们渴望为每个人提供能源，

and we aspire towards a fully-functioning low-carbon economy.

其次，我们希望建设 一个功能完善的低碳经济。

And we're getting to the point where we're seeing

我们此刻正在朝着目标努力，

一个功能完善的低碳经济

the fully-functioning low-carbon economy

不仅是让人们能够接入电网，

is not just about getting people onto the grid,

it's about getting people onto electricity

更要让人们用上电，

and doing it in a way that's really dignified.

并以一种有尊严的方式实现。

请各位想象一下，

So I want us all to picture it for a moment,

really picture what this could mean:

认真思考这可能意味着什么：

[New energy ecosystem]

[新能源生态系统]

an energy system that's not just about subsistence power,

这个能源系统不仅能提升生存能力，

getting the family off the kerosene,

帮助一些家庭 从煤油时代进入电灯时代，

but it's actually the full suite of appliances and tools

事实上它能提供 一整套的家电和工具，

and productivity that we've all gotten used to,

并带来与之相适应的生产力， 尽管这些我们都已经习以为常了。

so actually energy at a scale that can drive industrial development.

而实际上能达到这等规模的 能源系统就足以推动工业发展了。

And it's the ability to have powerful tools.

同时，这也是一种 拥有高效工具的能力，

It's the ability to be productive in the households, as a farmer,

是一种在农户中高效生产的 能力，无论你是农民、

or as a carpenter or as a tailor

木匠、还是裁缝，

and get your businesses to work and bring you into the economy.

并让企业家的公司能够运转， 引领人们进入低碳经济。

And I was working again a couple of days ago with a farmer

几天前，我还与一位农民打过交道，

just outside of Nairobi, small field,

就在内罗比（肯尼亚首都） 郊外的小田地里，

and he has an irrigation pump that's run off solar,

他有一个灌溉泵，是太阳能驱动的，

and he was bragging about how much of a difference it made

他向我夸耀这个机器

给他的生产力带来了巨大的提升。

to his productivity.

When we were listening to him, we were asking ourselves,

当我们在听他的故事时， 我们问自己，

什么时候

at what point will it be

你会用屋顶上的太阳能电池板 为你的电动代步车充电，

that actually, you will be charging an electric scooter off your rooftop

and taking your crops to market

并且把你的农作物运输到市场上时，

with mobility that you've charged yourself, using your own power?

你用的是自己生产的电能？

And that's an extraordinary thing that's happening,

这一正在发生的变化是非常伟大的，

当你听苏珊和弗朗西斯 述说他们的故事时，

and if you listen to Susan and Francis,

you get to this point where you say,

你会得出这样的结论：

"These guys have this extraordinary sense of dignity

“这些人拥有这种非凡的尊严感，

about the way they're achieving their power,

来源于他们获取电能的方式，

the sense of ownership and the sense of pride,

同时他们还拥有 所有权意识和自豪感。

and I'm going to flip into a little tiny video clip,

现在，我将播放一个短视频片段，

which is from a distributor of one of these companies that I'm talking about.

是来自我谈到的 这些公司中的一个经销商。

And he puts it better than anyone I've ever heard it.

他所讲的比我听过的 其他任何人的都要好。

So just listen to this.

大家听听看。

Martin: So if it does happen that we get to a point

马丁：如果我们真的能做到，

where every home has their own independent supply of energy,

使每个家庭都有独立的能源供应，

that will give us the democracy of energy.

这将给我们带来能源民主。

That's it.

就是这样。

And everybody has that choice,

每个人都有这个选择，

and everybody knows when they want to switch it on or off,

众所周知，当他们想打开或关闭它时，

whether they want to sell access or whether they want to store it.

无论他们是想出售还是留着，

That freedom getting back into the hands of the consumer,

自由选择权都在消费者的手中。

that would be the most exciting thing.

这将是最令人兴奋的事情。

Amar Inamdar: Brilliant, right? That was Martin,

演讲者：这很棒是吧？这就是马丁。

and he has a really wonderful turn of phrase,

他的措辞非常出色，

and what a sense of vision that he captures.

同时拥有卓越的眼界。

So picture that for a moment:

大家想象一下：

every household a proud producer as well as consumer of energy ...

每一个家庭既是一个骄傲的能源生产者， 也是一个能源消耗者。

the ability to generate power, to share power, to sell power,

无论是发电、与他人分享电能、 还是出售电能，

all coming from your own generating asset sitting on your own property.

全部都来自于您自己的生财资产， 都是您自己的财产。

Maybe even think about crowdsourcing with your neighbors

或许您甚至考虑过依靠自己的能力

the grid from the ground up,

与邻居一起众包电网，

rather than waiting for the government to bring it from the top down.

而不是空等政府自上而下地来分配。

So in Africa, we have this extraordinary opportunity right now,

因此，在非洲， 我们现在有一个绝佳的机会，

an extraordinary opportunity,

一个非凡的机会，

to change the world and create an energy system

来改变世界，并创建一个能源系统，

that everybody will be jealous of,

所有人肯定都会艳羡的这个系统的，

and everybody will look to us as the innovators of.

大家会把我们视为创新者。

And that's the democracy of energy.

而这就是能源民主。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢你们的倾听。

(Applause)

（掌声）

主持人：现在让我们 进入快速提问环节。

Chris Anderson: Quick question.

So it's a really exciting vision.

您所讲的的确是 一个非常令人兴奋的愿景。

Help us understand, what are the key roadblocks right now?

能给我们讲讲， 现在遇到的主要障碍是什么吗？

Like, what could make this go faster?

比如，怎样才能使它运作得更快？

AI: So the first one, I think, is really the intermittency of solar power.

演讲人：首先，我认为是 太阳能发电的间歇性问题。

So the problem is that the sun only shines for 12 hours a day,

这个问题在于 太阳每天只能发光12小时，

so you've got darkness for 12 hours a day,

因此一天中有12个小时是黑夜，

and we need to have storage solutions

我们就需要有制定存储电能的方案，

that are better to help us take us down that path.

这能帮助我们 在这条路上更好地发展下去。

So storage is really one.

所以存储问题真的是 目前较大的一个阻碍。

CA: And those prices are coming down.

主持人：而且价格正在下跌。

AI: And those prices are coming down very quickly.

演讲者：是的，价格会下跌得很快。

第二个问题是关于电器的。

Second, the appliance set.

So it needs to get more efficient,

我们得提高它的效率，

and it needs to get more diverse.

使之更加多样化。

We need to do more of the things

我们还需要做更多的事情。

we in Africa want to do with the appliance set.

我们想在非洲改进配套的家电设备。

CA: DC appliances.

主持人：直流电器。

AI: DC appliances,

演讲人：是的，直流电器。

and I think there's a real opportunity there, Chris.

克里斯，我认为这其中 存在着巨大的机遇。

I think the opportunity

在我看来，这一机遇

我们可以转移部分花在当前电力系统上的

is that we could shift some of these 21 billion dollars of subsidies

that governments are spending on the current electricity system

高达210亿美元的政府补贴，

and we could promote R&D here in Africa

然后我们可以促进非洲的研发，

to create some of these products,

开发一些这类的产品，

to be some of these entrepreneurs, and make this happen.

成为这些企业家中的一员， 让这些计划成真。

So create this new system here.

因此，要在这里建设这个新系统。

CA: And some of the companies themselves,

主持人：有些公司本身也存在顾虑，

I mean, there's plenty of demand there.

我是说这里的市场有大量的需求。

What's holding them back from supplying that demand?

是什么阻碍他们回应这些需求？

I mean, some of them talk about,

他们中有一些人说，

they would like to sell 10x what they can currently sell.

他们想卖出现在售价的10倍。

AI: Exactly. So for many of these capitals,

演讲者：的确如此。 对许多这类的资产而言，

it's that markets don't price consumer risk very well,

市场无法给消费者的风险合理定价。

and particularly in markets like ours,

特别是像我们这样的

in emerging markets and here in Africa.

一些新兴市场和非洲的市场。

So there's not enough working capital coming into this space

所以才缺乏足够的 营运资本进入这个市场。

because the big financiers look at this space and say,

因为金融大亨评估这个市场时会说：

“我不知道如何给风险定价， 所以我要远离它。”

"I don't know how to price that risk, so I'm going to stay away from it."

这就是让这些公司望而却步的原因。

And that's holding a lot of these companies back.

CA: Well, it's incredibly exciting to picture what could happen here.

主持人：想象一下这里的前景 的确非常振奋人心。

In my mind, this might be the biggest leapfrog of them all.

在我看来， 这可能是其中最大的突破。

And thank you for all you're doing and for sharing that vision

感谢你所做的一切， 并积极地与我们分享

这一美好愿景。

so powerfully.