The Thrilling Potential for Off-Grid Solar Energy | Amar Inamdar | TED

譯者: Crystal Yip 審譯者: Helen Chang

There's something really incredible happening.

有些非常棒的事情正在發生。

So there's over a billion people

全球有超過十億人

who have no access to energy whatsoever across the world,

無法取得任何能源。

620 million of them here in Africa.

當中的六億二千萬人生活在非洲。

It costs about 1,500 dollars to connect each household up to the grid.

每戶連接電網的成本 約為 1500 美元。

If you are going to wait for it, it takes about nine years, on average,

如果你選擇等著被接上， 平均的等待期約九年，

and that feels like a lifetime when you're trying to make that happen.

而在你等待期間， 感覺如同過了一生。

That's kind of unbelievable,

這聽似難以置信，

and it's also unacceptable.

同時不能被接受。

So let's do something about it.

來為此做些事情吧。

The lightbulb comes from this idea that you have an energy system

燈泡預設你有供電的系統，

that's made up of the ideas of Tesla

那是特斯拉

and the ideas of Thomas Edison.

和湯瑪士·愛迪生的構想。

There was an evolution that said it's not just about the lightbulb,

那場演變不只關乎燈泡，

it's about the whole system,

而是關乎整個系統，

the whole energy system that goes with that lightbulb,

圍繞燈泡的整個能源系統；

and what happened in that gilded age

在那鍍金時代

was the creation of an industrial system

工業系統誕生了，

that every country around the world has now started to emulate.

世界各國跟隨模仿。

So to get to the appliances, you need to have power stations.

要使用電器，你需要發電站。

From power stations, you need to have infrastructure,

從發電站供電，你需要基礎設施，

and that infrastructure takes you to the point of having electricity,

經基礎設施輸送電力至所需地方，

and you get to the lightbulbs and the appliances

然後你可以開燈和使用電器，

that we all take for granted.

這一切我們都視作理所當然了。

But the amazing thing, in a way, is that there's a revolution happening

但令人驚喜的是，變革正發生

in the villages and towns all around us here in East Africa.

在東非我們周圍的鄉鎮中。

And the revolution is an echo of the cell phone revolution.

這個變革是手機革命的迴響。

It's wireless,

這個變革是無線的，

and that revolution is about solar and it's about distributed solar.

這個變革關於太陽能， 關於分散式太陽能。

Photons are wireless,

光子是無線的，

they fall on every rooftop,

落在家家戶戶的屋頂，

and they generate enough power to be sufficient for every household need.

它們產生足夠能量供給每戶所需。

So that's an incredible thing.

這是非常棒的事情。

There's also a problem with it.

同時，有個難題。

Up until now, the technology hasn't been there to make it happen,

至今仍未有科技能使之實現，

and the mindset has been that we have to have the grid

而我們仍困於舊思維，

認為一定要有電網才能推進工業，

to provide industrial growth

and let countries develop and create jobs and industrialize.

使得國家發展、創造職位、工業化。

So we've gotten ourselves to the point

我們來到這個情況，

where actually the costs of building these grids

鋪設這些電網的成本，

and following that pattern of development

跟從那種發展模式，

are really unsustainable.

不能真的持續發展。

If you add up the deficits that all of the utilities run in Africa,

如果把非洲所有的 能源設施虧損加起來，

sub-Saharan Africa,

撒哈拉以南非洲的，

you get to a number of 21 billion dollars every year

那是每年 210 億美元，

to maintain that system and keep it going.

用來維護供電系統。

So an extraordinary amount of resources

如此龐大的資源

that's been put in to creating a system

投入於建設一個系統，

that ultimately we will have to wait a very long time for,

到頭來我們還等上很長時間，

and when it comes,

當它完成時，

it often doesn't come with sufficient robustness

經常不勝負荷，

to allow us to go down that path to development.

不足以支撐我們踏上發展之路。

So what a shame.

因此非常可惜。

But here's what's happening,

但現正發生著

and here's the opportunity that I think we should all get excited about.

一件我認為我們 都應該為之興奮的事。

So there's a group of companies

有一些公司

that have been chipping away at this problem over the last 10 years,

過去十年來一直在解決這個問題，

and this group of companies

這些公司

have recognized the reality that there's a great big nuclear reactor

意識到現實中有一巨大核子反應爐

up there in the sky,

高掛天上，

and that Africa is more endowed with that solar power

而非洲得天獨厚，

相較於其他大陸， 能從天上的太陽得到更多太陽能。

that comes from the sky, the sun,

than almost any other continent.

So the opportunity has come to convert some of that solar power,

所以迎來機會，轉換部分太陽能

wireless power, into energy at the household level.

讓這無線能量成為家居用電。

And three things have happened at the same time.

同時有三件事情已經發生。

First, the costs of solar productivity have come down.

第一，太陽能發電的成本已降低。

So putting a panel on your roof and generating power from it,

放置太陽能板在屋頂來發電，

that cost has absolutely collapsed over the last 30 years,

所需成本在過去 30 年間大幅減少，

and it's gone down by 95 percent.

下降率達 95% 。

Second, the appliance network.

第二，電器網絡。

So the group of appliances that we've all gotten used to,

我們已習以為常的電器，

we all want and we all need, we all see as part of our everyday lives

想要或需要的電器， 日常生活中的電器，

that give us health and security,

給予我們健康和安全的電器，

those appliances have come down in cost.

那些電器的成本下降。

So if you take the LED lightbulb, for example, a very simple thing,

以 LED 燈泡為例，這簡單的物件

they're now 85 percent less than they were five years ago,

較五年前便宜 85%，

and their efficiency, when you compare them to an incandescent bulb,

而效率，如果與白熾燈相比，

like the lightbulb I showed in the previous slide,

正如我在上一張投影片展示的燈泡，

is incredible.

是非常出色的。

They give you 10 times the amount of light,

LED 燈給予你 10 倍的光，

and they last 30 times as long.

而且有 30 倍的壽命。

And then the last thing that's happened is of course the cell phone revolution,

最後一件發生了的事 當然是手機革命，

so we're piggybacking off the cell phone revolution,

乘著手機革命，

and we can now make decentralized customers make small payments

我們現在可讓零散顧客作小額付款，

for bits of equipment and appliances

購買小型設備和電器，

where actually they're now affordable.

而那些價錢現已變得可負擔。

We can pay them off over a daily or a weekly schedule.

我們能於一日或一星期內付清帳單。

So this is an incredible change in the economy that's happening,

這是個在經濟中發生的驚人改變。

and it's really opened up something very, very innovative.

而這迎來了非常、非常嶄新的事物。

So I'm going to introduce you to a lady I met with last week.

我接下來將向你介紹 我上星期遇見的女士。

Her name's Susan.

她名叫蘇珊。

It may not look like it,

或許看來不像，

but Susan is a representative of a $27 billion market.

但蘇珊是 270 億美元市場的一員。

27 billion dollars is what people like Susan spend every year

270 億美元是蘇珊這些人每年

on cell phone charging,

花費在手機充電、手電筒電池

flashlight batteries and kerosene to light their homes.

和用以照明家居的煤油的金錢。

So Susan is a proud owner of a small solar system.

蘇珊自豪擁有一個小「太陽系」。

It's a kit rather than a planetary thing,

那是套小設備， 而不是關於星球的東西。

so a small solar system,

一套小太陽能系統，

and her small solar system allows her to have a couple of lightbulbs,

她的小太陽能系統能讓她亮起燈泡，

and she's made this transition, this jump, from kerosene into light.

而她成功從煤油燈躍升，改用燈泡。

She has four or five lights and a radio.

她有四、五個燈泡和收音機。

It's fantastic, and she talks about it.

太奇妙了，她聊起此事。

She talks about her kids doing homework at night because she has light.

她說到因為有燈， 她的子女可在晚上做功課。

I'm not sure what the kids feel about that.

我不知她的子女覺得如何。

She talks about the fact that she can go out at 4am and look after the cows,

她說到可於清晨四時外出照顧牛隻，

and she's not so worried,

她不再擔心，

but also, with a little twinkle in her eye,

此外，她雙眼閃爍，

she talks about how light turns her house into a home at night.

說著燈泡如何使她的房子 在晚上成為一個家。

She's not scared of her own house at night,

晚上，她不再怕她的房子，

because it has light in it, and I thought that was amazing.

因為它有燈亮著， 而我覺得這非常好。

So Susan does something that many customers of these companies

蘇珊做了些，剛提及的公司的 很多顧客也會做的事，

that I talked about do,

and she forces us to innovate.

而她推使我們創新。

She challenges companies, saying, "I've got the radio and the lights.

她挑戰那些公司，說： 「我有了收音機和燈泡。

You know what? I'd like a TV.

我想要電視機。

I'd like to entertain, educate me and my kids.

我想娛樂、教育自己和我的子女。

And then I would like to have some hair clippers for my kids,

然後我想要有電剪

幫子女剪頭髮，

you know, to cut my kids' hair, and I'd love to have a fridge.

我也要冰箱。」

And she's coined something

她新創了一樣東西，

that the energy world is really hungry to do.

是能源渴望做到的。

The idea that she's coined is the energy ladder.

她新創的概念是「能源階梯」。

It starts, again, with a lightbulb. Right?

再次地，它由燈泡開始。

And the lightbulb is an idea that we can get our kids to do homework,

因為燈泡，我們可以讓子女做功課，

and very cheap, about five dollars,

它很便宜，約五美元，

and we can get it distributed.

而且我們能讓它普及。

But then let's go up from there.

但讓我們繼續走上階梯。

This is the kit that Susan has:

這是蘇珊的小系統：

four lightbulbs, radio, maybe a little flashlight,

四個燈泡、收音機， 或許還有一個小手電筒，

a little solar panel on the roof.

一小塊太陽能板在屋頂。

And then let's go up again.

再讓我們走上去。

We can get maybe at about 500 dollars,

我們或能花費約 500 美元，

the previous kit was maybe $150,

前一套系統約 150 美元，

again, paid for over time,

同樣地，分期付款，

two years to pay it all off,

用兩年付清款項，

you can get the TV,

你可以得到電視機，

so the lightbulbs and the TV.

即是燈泡和電視機。

And you start to ask yourself, "So where is this headed?"

你開始問自己：「這是到哪裡去？」

Is this headed here,

是到這裡

where we can have distributed systems

讓我們能在這用分散式系統，

with the right infrastructure to provide power

配上合適的基礎設施來供電

for our hospitals and our schools?

給醫院和學校嗎？

And really how far can this go?

而這真的能走多遠？

And this is the mindset shift that I think is really exciting.

我認為這思維轉變非常令人興奮。

How far can we go?

我們能走多遠？

Could it get up to here?

能走上去這裡？

You know, this is the conceptual design for one of the world's biggest factories,

這是世上最大工廠之一的概念設計，

designed to be fully solar-powered and fully off grid.

全面由太陽能推動，完全脫離電網。

Maybe we can get that.

或許，我們能做到。

So there's a generation of these companies

所以有一代的公司

that are out there doing this work and creating thousands of jobs,

正在進行這工作，

創造數以千計的職位，

creating, selling, tens of thousands of these solar systems,

製造、售出數以萬計 這類太陽能系統，

so bringing tens of thousands of families into light,

從而為萬戶家庭帶來光明，

and tackling that big $1 billion problem that I talked about at the beginning,

處理高達 10 億美元的問題， 正如我開場時說，

and really innovating.

真的非常創新。

And what they're doing is, they're not only energy companies,

它們不只做能源公司做的事，

they're also credit finance companies,

而且兼做金融信用，

so they're bringing people into an economy.

它們把人帶進經濟體系。

They're retail companies,

它們是零售公司，

so they're taking products out to people in the connecting markets.

帶著產品來到連結市場的人前。

And they're appliance companies,

它們是電器公司，

so they're developing extraordinary products

研發令人驚喜的產品，

that are very efficient and very cheap.

價廉而性能佳。

So an extraordinary thing is happening out there

令人驚喜的事正在發生，

that's worth recognizing.

值得重視。

And where does it take us?

它會帶領我們到哪裡去？

From a governmental perspective, from a social perspective,

從政府的角度，從社會的角度，

it takes us out to two really big goals.

它帶領我們邁向兩個非常大的目標。

We aspire towards energy access for everybody,

我們志於使人人得享能源，

and we aspire towards a fully-functioning low-carbon economy.

而且追求全面運作的低碳經濟。

And we're getting to the point where we're seeing

我們快可見到

the fully-functioning low-carbon economy

這全面運作的低碳經濟。

is not just about getting people onto the grid,

這不只是關於讓人連於電網，

it's about getting people onto electricity

還關於讓人連上電力，

and doing it in a way that's really dignified.

並且採取讓人有尊嚴的方法。

So I want us all to picture it for a moment,

讓我們稍作想像，

really picture what this could mean:

真的想像這可以意味些甚麼：

[New energy ecosystem]

〔新能源生態系統〕

an energy system that's not just about subsistence power,

一個能源系統 不只維持生活所需的能量，

getting the family off the kerosene,

讓家庭脫離煤油，

but it's actually the full suite of appliances and tools

實際上還是全套家電、

工具以及生產力， 這些我們都已經習以為常，

and productivity that we've all gotten used to,

so actually energy at a scale that can drive industrial development.

因此其實能源的規模 足以推動工業發展。

And it's the ability to have powerful tools.

它能夠連接強大的工具。

It's the ability to be productive in the households, as a farmer,

它是一種能力， 讓家家戶戶具有生產力，

作為農夫、作為木匠或作為裁縫，

or as a carpenter or as a tailor

and get your businesses to work and bring you into the economy.

並讓你營運生意，帶領你進入經濟。

And I was working again a couple of days ago with a farmer

我在數天前又與一位農夫工作，

just outside of Nairobi, small field,

位於奈洛比外的小農田，

and he has an irrigation pump that's run off solar,

他有一個太陽能供電的灌溉泵，

and he was bragging about how much of a difference it made

他誇耀這泵 對他的生產力帶來的轉變。

to his productivity.

When we were listening to him, we were asking ourselves,

聽著他說話時，我們問自己，

at what point will it be

那是怎樣的情況，

that actually, you will be charging an electric scooter off your rooftop

你會從你的屋頂給小型摩托車充電，

and taking your crops to market

然後帶著你的農作物到市場，

with mobility that you've charged yourself, using your own power?

而使用的交通工具 是由你自己供電的？

And that's an extraordinary thing that's happening,

這件非常棒的事情實現了，

and if you listen to Susan and Francis,

如果你傾聽蘇珊和法蘭西斯，

you get to this point where you say,

你會說：

"These guys have this extraordinary sense of dignity

「這些人非常有尊嚴，

about the way they're achieving their power,

從他們獲得能源的方法上可見，

the sense of ownership and the sense of pride,

有自主感，有自豪感，

and I'm going to flip into a little tiny video clip,

我準備快速播一小段影片，

which is from a distributor of one of these companies that I'm talking about.

由其中一間我提及的 公司的經銷商拍攝。

And he puts it better than anyone I've ever heard it.

在我聽過的說法中，他說明得最好。

So just listen to this.

所以聽聽這個。

Martin: So if it does happen that we get to a point

馬丁：如果那真的發生，

where every home has their own independent supply of energy,

每家每戶都有自己獨立的能源供應，

that will give us the democracy of energy.

那會給予我們能源上的民主。

That's it.

就是那樣。

And everybody has that choice,

每人都有那個選擇，

and everybody knows when they want to switch it on or off,

而每人都知道甚麼時候想開關它，

whether they want to sell access or whether they want to store it.

是否想出售電力或是否想儲存它。

That freedom getting back into the hands of the consumer,

那自由重回消費者的手中，

that would be the most exciting thing.

將會是最使人興奮的事情。

Amar Inamdar: Brilliant, right? That was Martin,

阿馬爾·伊納姆達爾： 很棒吧？那是馬丁，

and he has a really wonderful turn of phrase,

他美妙地運用言辭，

and what a sense of vision that he captures.

並描繪出一個願景。

So picture that for a moment:

想像一下：

every household a proud producer as well as consumer of energy ...

每戶都是自豪的 能源生產者和消費者⋯⋯

the ability to generate power, to share power, to sell power,

有能力發電、分享電力、售賣電力，

all coming from your own generating asset sitting on your own property.

全都來自你自己家中的發電設備。

Maybe even think about crowdsourcing with your neighbors

或者甚至考慮與你的鄰居集資，

the grid from the ground up,

自行鋪設電網，

rather than waiting for the government to bring it from the top down.

不再等待政府由上而下帶到家中。

So in Africa, we have this extraordinary opportunity right now,

因此在非洲，我們現正 有一個特別的機會，

an extraordinary opportunity,

一個特別的機會，

to change the world and create an energy system

來改變世界並創造一個能源系統，

that everybody will be jealous of,

將使所有人妒忌，

and everybody will look to us as the innovators of.

將使所有人視我們為革新者。

And that's the democracy of energy.

而那就是能源的民主。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Chris Anderson: Quick question.

克里斯·安德森：很快一問。

So it's a really exciting vision.

這真的是個令人興奮的願景。

Help us understand, what are the key roadblocks right now?

幫我們更了解一點， 現在主要障礙是甚麼？

Like, what could make this go faster?

例如，甚麼能令這發展得更快？

AI: So the first one, I think, is really the intermittency of solar power.

阿馬爾：我想， 首先是太陽能的間歇性。

So the problem is that the sun only shines for 12 hours a day,

問題是太陽每天只照耀 12 小時，

so you've got darkness for 12 hours a day,

即是每天有 12 小時你只有黑暗，

and we need to have storage solutions

而我們需要儲電方法，

that are better to help us take us down that path.

好讓我們更能向這方邁步。

So storage is really one.

儲電真是個問題。

CA: And those prices are coming down.

克里斯：那些價格正下降。

AI: And those prices are coming down very quickly.

阿馬爾：那些價格正迅速下降。

Second, the appliance set.

第二、電器組合，

So it needs to get more efficient,

需要變得更有效率，

and it needs to get more diverse.

而且需要變得多元化。

We need to do more of the things

我們需多做些

we in Africa want to do with the appliance set.

我們想在非洲 運用這電器系統做的事。

CA: DC appliances.

克里斯：直流電器。

AI: DC appliances,

阿馬爾：直流電器，

and I think there's a real opportunity there, Chris.

而我覺得真的有機會，克里斯。

I think the opportunity

我認為機會

is that we could shift some of these 21 billion dollars of subsidies

就在我們會轉移部分 210 億美元資助，

that governments are spending on the current electricity system

那本是政府用以改善現有電力系統，

and we could promote R&D here in Africa

我們可在非洲這裡推動研究和開發，

to create some of these products,

來創造這類產品，

to be some of these entrepreneurs, and make this happen.

來成為這類企業家，將這願景實現。

So create this new system here.

在此創造這新系統。

CA: And some of the companies themselves,

克里斯：部分公司它們……

I mean, there's plenty of demand there.

我是說，那裡有足夠需求。

What's holding them back from supplying that demand?

有甚麼使它們不去滿足那需求呢？

I mean, some of them talk about,

有部分公司說到

they would like to sell 10x what they can currently sell.

想要比現在多 10 倍的銷售量。

AI: Exactly. So for many of these capitals,

阿馬爾：確實對於很多這些資金來說，

it's that markets don't price consumer risk very well,

市場不太擅於為消費者風險定價，

and particularly in markets like ours,

特別是在我們這些市場，

in emerging markets and here in Africa.

在新興市場和非洲當地。

So there's not enough working capital coming into this space

所以沒有足夠的營運資金 來到這個空間，

because the big financiers look at this space and say,

因為大金融家看到這空間說：

"I don't know how to price that risk, so I'm going to stay away from it."

「因不知如何為那風險定價， 所以會避開它。」

And that's holding a lot of these companies back.

而那讓許多這類公司卻步。

CA: Well, it's incredibly exciting to picture what could happen here.

克里斯：想像甚麼事情可在此發生， 非常使人興奮。

In my mind, this might be the biggest leapfrog of them all.

我覺得，這或許是當中最大的躍進。

And thank you for all you're doing and for sharing that vision

謝謝你所做的一切， 並與我們分享那願景。

so powerfully.

它如此宏大。