Karen Lellouche Tordjman: Siri, Alexa, Google ... what comes next? | TED

翻译人员: Gracia Chew 校对人员: Helen Chang

It's Monday morning.

周一早晨。

You've just received a voice notification from your voice assistant.

你刚接到来自语音助理的语音通知。

Voice assistant: Good morning.

语音助理：早安。

There's a new pair of pants on sale at your favorite store.

有新的一条裤子在你喜欢的店面出售。

Last week, while wearing your smart glasses,

上周，当你戴着智能眼镜时，

you were drawn to a similar pair on a colleague.

你被同事穿的相似裤子所吸引。

Would you like to wear them to the party on Thursday?

你想穿着它参加周四的派对吗？

I suggest you skip the movies tomorrow night to afford them.

我建议你不去看明天晚上的电影 才能买得起它。

Say "yes" to validate the purchase.

说“好”以验证你的订购。

Let me know if I should also find a gift for your host.

让我知道我该否为派对的 主办人找份礼物。

I can make suggestions based on your budget

我能根据你的预算

and her public Instagram profile.

和她的 Instagram 公开资料 给予建议。

Say "yes" to proceed.

说“好”以示继续。

Karen Lellouche Tordjman: Yes.

凯伦·勒卢什·托吉曼：好。

So, thrilling or scary?

那么，这看似刺激还是可怕？

Because this is how our future could look very soon.

因为这是我们以后很快会看到的。

As a working mom, I find it exciting.

身为一个职场妈妈， 我认为这令人振奋。

I would love to stop doing Google searches,

我真希望自己不用再进行谷歌搜索、

wasting time doing Amazon scrolling, budget calculation

浪费时间浏览亚马逊的网页、计算预算

or optimizing my calendar.

或者将我的行事历最佳化。

What is thrilling is the prospect of having a companion

刺激的是我们在未来 可能会有个专门迎合

that would cater specifically to my needs and requests.

我的需要和要求的同伴。

Just imagine, it could do things, like using my heart rate

想象一下它将能做的事， 例如按照我的心率来

to tweak my Starbucks order to reduce caffeine.

更改我的星巴克订单以减少咖啡因。

It could take into account my lunch and the number of steps I've walked

它也能根据我吃的午餐 和我的行走步数来

to tailor a workout for me.

制定量身定做的健身计划。

It could even align with my friend's smart assistant

它甚至能与我朋友的智能助理合作

to craft evening plans

制定符合大家的

that would fit everyone's budget, calendars and locations.

预算、行程和地点的晚间计划。

Obviously, this scenario could easily lean towards the scary.

显然，这个场景很轻易就能 变成众人惧怕的场面。

This is why there needs to be regulation in place.

因此，我们有必要实施管制。

All users, all consumers, should always remain in full control of data they share

所有用户应时刻确保 自己所分享的信息

and on which type of recommendations they agree to get or not to get.

和愿否收到的推荐 都在自己的全面管制内。

Now, recommendation engines powered by artificial intelligence are not new.

如今，智能推荐引擎已不新奇。

Far from it.

实际上，它与新奇离得远。

We actually use them multiple times a day already.

我们其实已在一天内多次使用它。

On average, 70 percent of the time spent on YouTube

我们平均把用在Youtube上的七成时间

is on videos recommended by their algorithm.

花在他们的计算程式 所推荐的视频上。

And you may also own a wristband that you use to track your sleep

而你也或许有个能追踪睡眠

or monitor your workout.

或检测健身过程的智能手表。

And there's the first generation of voice-enabled virtual assistants.

还有第一代设有语音功能的虚拟助理。

You know, like Google Home or Amazon Alexa

就如你所知的谷歌家或亚马逊Alexa

that you can use to change the temperature of your room.

能用来调节房间温度。

Your car as well is probably equipped with the same things

你的车辆或许也具备相似的功能，

that can help you manage your music

帮你管理你的音乐

or give you directions, hands-free.

或提供免触屏的导航服务。

But there is one thing that all these tools have in common.

但这些数码工具都有一个相同之处。

They leverage AI to help you in one specific area of your life.

它们动用人工智能对你人生中的 某一方面施予援助。

Your home, your car, your health.

你的家、你的车子、你的健康。

They stay in the lane.

它们只会待在同一车道。

Now imagine a new generation of voice assistants

现在想象一个跨越所有车道、

that crosses all lanes,

同步一切的

that synchronizes everything.

新世代语音助理。

So you may ask, why hasn't this happened already?

所以你可能会问： “这为何还没发生呢？”

Because there are two technological bricks that are critical to make this happen

因为我们还缺少能促成此事的

that are still missing.

两大紧要的科技因素。

One is voice.

第一个是声音。

These tools must be able to understand everything we say.

这些数码工具必须能理解 我们所说的一切。

And clearly, this is not the case today.

而现在它们显然还未能做到。

For my kids, maybe yours as well,

对我的孩子、甚至你们的孩子来说，

Siri is still an endless source of fun.

Siri 依旧能带来无穷的乐趣。

They like asking very simple questions

他们喜欢问非常简单的问题

and still get very confused answers.

但依然会得到非常困惑的答案。

Two, breadth.

第二，宽度。

They must be able to provide a large range of recommendations

这些数码科技须能提供广泛的推荐

to cover whatever we may need.

以覆盖我们的一切所需。

So tech players are still working on cracking those two elements,

因此科技业者仍在致力于 改善语音和宽度

voice and breadth.

这两个元素。

On voice, as I said, Alexa, Google Home, Siri and the likes,

至于语音，就如我所言，Alexa、 谷歌家、Siri等智能助理

they don't understand us entirely and systematically for now.

至今不完全理解，也无法系统性地 理解我们所说的话。

Actually, understanding human language is difficult.

实际上，想理解人类的语言并非易事。

It's as much about the context

它既关乎语境

as it is about the words themselves.

也关乎文字。

And think about the accents or background noise.

而且试考虑说话的语调或背景噪音。

It's already very difficult for Americans

对美国人来说，想理解

to understand French people speaking English,

法国人所说的英语已十分困难。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

so can you imagine how difficult it can be for a robot?

所以你能想象这对机器人来说 会有多困难吗？

So tech players are working hard on this.

因此科技业者正往这方面做出努力。

In 2018, Google launched an investment program

在2018年，谷歌为起步公司推出一项

for start-ups that would work with their Google Home suites.

能与谷歌家应用协作的投资计划。

And since then, they have invested in over 15 companies.

而自那以后 他们已投资超过15家公司。

Amazon has 10,000 employees

亚马逊有1万名员工

working on Alexa voice technologies.

投入于改善Alexa语音科技的工作。

So they will eventually crack the voice issues.

所以他们终究会解决语音方面的问题。

The smart assistants will be able to understand what we say,

这些智能助理将能理解我们说的话

the meaning of the words in their context.

和当中的语义。

For example, if I’m using my smart assistant, and I’m listening to music,

比如，若我在听音乐时使用智能助理，

and then I say, "Change."

说：“更换。”

VA: Hi, Karen.

语音助理：Karen, 您好。

Do you want to change the temperature of the room?

您想更换房间的温度吗？

KLT: Well, clearly this is not working yet,

KLT：很明显，这还未行得通，

but in the future,

但将来，

it will understand that I'm talking about changing the track,

它会明白我说的是更换音乐，

not changing the temperature of the room.

而不是更换房间的温度。

It will also understand our long and complex requests.

它也会明白我们长而复杂的要求。

You know, when we start saying something

比如当我们开始说话时，

and then we change our mind mid-sentence.

只说到一半便改变主意。

But that doesn't stop here.

但它能做的不止于此。

With far-field speech recognition,

有了远程语音识别，

you will be able to use it from a distance,

你将能从远处使用它，

from a room to another.

从这里到另一房间，

Even with background noise like kids screaming or traffic.

就算有小孩的尖叫声 或交通噪声等背景噪音的干扰。

(Kids shout, whistle blows)

（孩子们叫喊，哨声响起）

Tremendous progress has been made on this recently,

近年来，基于亚马逊在 他们的回音音箱技术上

largely due to Amazon's efforts on their Echo speaker technology.

做出的努力，该数码工具 的发展已突飞猛进。

Not only that.

不止这样。

It will be able to understand in which mood you’re in --

它将能了解你的心情，

joy, sadness, annoyance --

不管是快乐，悲伤，还是心烦，

and will be able to mimic these feelings too.

并且能模仿这些情感。

And as natural language processing advances further --

而随着在背后运转的

so natural language processing is the technology behind this --

自然语言处理的进一步发展，

so as it advances further,

进一步的发展，

the voice-enabled interactions will increasingly be refined.

智能语音交互将会被愈发改进。

Now, the second challenge and the biggest, in my opinion,

依我看，第二且最大的挑战

revolves around the breadth of recommendations provided.

关系到智能助理所提供的推荐的宽度。

Will they be able to --

它们能否 --

What will be their range of actions?

它们行动的范围到底有多广?

Will they remain limited to very specific tasks,

它们将继续局限于很具体的任务，

or will they be able to become a true companion across your day

还是能成为你日常生活中的 真正伙伴，让你能

to which you can ask whatever you want,

针对所有想要和需要的

whatever you need?

发出请求?

For example, taking notes in a meeting

比如，在会议上做笔记

or reordering milk

或者重新订奶

or even mental health coaching.

又或者提供心理健康辅导。

Will they be able to provide you recommendations

它们能否提供跨越众多

across product categories?

产品类别的推荐？

Today,

今天，

companies provide us recommendations within one specific category,

公司只在某个特定的类别内给予推荐，

for example, that can help us choose between two dresses,

例如在两条裙子或两本书之间

between two books.

做出选择。

In the future, the smart assistants will actually be able to help us choose

将来，智能助理将能帮助我们

between buying a book or buying a dress.

在购买书本和购买裙子之间做出选择。

So to be able to deliver this integrated and large range of recommendations,

所以若想让智能助理有能力 提供综合和广泛的推荐，

tech teams behind smart assistants will need to design the right algorithms.

它们背后的技术组必需 设计对的计算程序。

And these algorithms will need to be powerful enough

而该程序需有足够的能力

to process a myriad of data points.

处理万千数据点，

To identify patterns,

以便能辨识规律、

to model courses of actions,

规划尔后的作法

and also to learn from end users' feedback.

和从终端用户给予的反馈中学习。

But, a world where smart assistants become unavoidable

但是，一个智能助理 成为必然之事的世界

means new priorities for all companies,

意味着所有公司将列入新的优先事项，

not only the smart assistant players.

而不只是投入智能助理行业的公司。

Every business in the future will need to accelerate drastically

每个企业在未来都需 大幅度加快

on data and algorithm,

数据、演算法

on voice-enabled interactions.

和语音交互服务的发展。

And also, they will need to be entrusted by consumers

此外，他们在推荐供给方面也需

to provide recommendations.

得到消费者的信任。

This is what I like to summarize in three words,

我想用三个关键字概括整个演讲 --

in the three imperatives that are data, tech and trust.

数据、技术和信任。

So the moment the breadth challenge

因此宽度和语音问题

and the voice challenge get solved

被解决的那一刻将会是

will be a tipping point

智能助理

in smart assistant usage and adoption by consumers.

被消费者大量使用和采纳的引爆点。

Today, can you live without your smartphone?

今天，你能否在 没有智能手机的情况下活下去？

I assume not, right?

我猜应该不能吧？

In a few years from now,

在未来的几年后，

your smart assistant will be a convenient,

你的智能助理将会是个方便、

powerful, reliable helper

强劲、可靠的帮手，

essential in your day-to-day life.

在你的日常生活中不可或缺。

So you won't be able to live without it.

因此没了它，你就无法活下去。

And unlike your smartphones,

与智能手机不同的是，

it will be embedded in every device around you.

它会置入你周围的每一个电子设备。

Your smartphone itself, of course,

当然，这包括你的

but also your car, the mirrors,

智能手机，但你的车子、镜子、

your fridge, your glasses

冰箱、眼镜和未来会出现的

and who knows what other device in the future.

其他设备都包括在内。

So are you ready for a smarter life?

所以，你们准备好 迎接更智能的生活吗？

VA: Yes, Karen, I am.

语音助理：是的，Karen, 我准备好了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）