Karen Lellouche Tordjman: Siri, Alexa, Google ... what comes next? | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

It's Monday morning.

時間是星期一早上。

You've just received a voice notification from your voice assistant.

你剛收到你的語音助理 給你的語音通知。

Voice assistant: Good morning.

語音助理：早安。

There's a new pair of pants on sale at your favorite store.

你最喜歡的商店 有一件新褲子在打折。

Last week, while wearing your smart glasses,

上週你戴著智慧眼鏡時，你被 同事身上類似的褲子給吸引了。

you were drawn to a similar pair on a colleague.

Would you like to wear them to the party on Thursday?

你想要穿這件褲子 去參加星期四的派對嗎？

I suggest you skip the movies tomorrow night to afford them.

我建議你把明晚別看電影， 把錢省下來買褲子。

Say "yes" to validate the purchase.

確認購買，請說「是」。

Let me know if I should also find a gift for your host.

如果要我去找給主辦人的 禮物，請再跟我說。

I can make suggestions based on your budget

我可以根據你的預算以及她公開的

and her public Instagram profile.

IG 個人資訊來提供建議，

Say "yes" to proceed.

若要執行，請說「是」。

Karen Lellouche Tordjman: Yes.

講者：是。

So, thrilling or scary?

所以，

讓人興奮還是讓人害怕？

Because this is how our future could look very soon.

因為很快我們的未來 可能就會變成這樣。

As a working mom, I find it exciting.

身為要工作的母親，我感到很興奮。

I would love to stop doing Google searches,

我會很高興可以不用再上網搜尋、

wasting time doing Amazon scrolling, budget calculation

浪費時間在亞馬遜上亂滑亂看、

計算預算，

or optimizing my calendar.

或者把行事曆最佳化。

What is thrilling is the prospect of having a companion

讓人興奮的是期待能有一個夥伴

that would cater specifically to my needs and requests.

會明確根據我的需求和要求 來幫我處理大小事。

Just imagine, it could do things, like using my heart rate

想像一下，

它可以做的事情包括： 用我的心跳資料

to tweak my Starbucks order to reduce caffeine.

來調整我的星巴克訂單， 減少咖啡因。

It could take into account my lunch and the number of steps I've walked

它可以考量我的午餐

和我走的步數

to tailor a workout for me.

為我量身打造運動計畫。

It could even align with my friend's smart assistant

它甚至能和我朋友的智慧助理合作，

to craft evening plans

來精心安排晚上的計畫， 滿足每個人的預算、

that would fit everyone's budget, calendars and locations.

行程，和地點。

Obviously, this scenario could easily lean towards the scary.

很明顯，這個情境 也很容易變得很恐怖。

This is why there needs to be regulation in place.

這就是為什麼要制訂好規定。

All users, all consumers, should always remain in full control of data they share

所有使用者，所有消費者，都應該

一直能完全掌控他們所分享的資料，

and on which type of recommendations they agree to get or not to get.

且能決定他們要或不要 取得哪種類型的建議。

Now, recommendation engines powered by artificial intelligence are not new.

背後靠人工智慧支援的 建議引擎並不是新東西。

Far from it.

一點也不新。

We actually use them multiple times a day already.

我們現在每天就會用到好幾次了。

On average, 70 percent of the time spent on YouTube

平均而言，

花在 YouTube 上的時間，有 70%

is on videos recommended by their algorithm.

是在看演算法所推薦的影片。

And you may also own a wristband that you use to track your sleep

你可能也有一個手環， 用來追蹤你的睡眠，

or monitor your workout.

或者監控你的運動。

And there's the first generation of voice-enabled virtual assistants.

還有第一代的聲控虛擬助理。

You know, like Google Home or Amazon Alexa

比如 Google Home 或 Amazon Alexa，

that you can use to change the temperature of your room.

你可以用它們來改變房內的溫度。

Your car as well is probably equipped with the same things

你的汽車可能也裝有

同樣的設備，

that can help you manage your music

能協助你管理音樂，

or give you directions, hands-free.

或者幫你導航，不需要用手。

But there is one thing that all these tools have in common.

但，這些工具都有一個共同點。

They leverage AI to help you in one specific area of your life.

它們發揮人工智慧的功能，

在你生活上某個 明確的領域中協助你。

Your home, your car, your health.

你的家、你的車、你的健康。

They stay in the lane.

它們完全不越界。

Now imagine a new generation of voice assistants

想像一下新一代的語音助理，

that crosses all lanes,

越過所有的界，

that synchronizes everything.

整合一切。

So you may ask, why hasn't this happened already?

你可能會問，為什麼還沒有發生？

Because there are two technological bricks that are critical to make this happen

因為，要實現這種助理， 還有兩塊重要的科技積木

that are still missing.

目前還不存在。

One is voice.

第一，聲音。

These tools must be able to understand everything we say.

這些工具必須要了解 我們所說的一切。

And clearly, this is not the case today.

很明顯，現今還做不到。

For my kids, maybe yours as well,

對我的孩子而言， 也許你的孩子也是，

Siri is still an endless source of fun.

Siri 仍然是樂趣的無限來源。

They like asking very simple questions

他們喜歡問很簡單的問題，

and still get very confused answers.

而仍然會得到很讓人困惑的答案。

Two, breadth.

第二，廣泛度。

They must be able to provide a large range of recommendations

它們必須要能提供各種建議，

to cover whatever we may need.

涵蓋我們可能需要的一切。

So tech players are still working on cracking those two elements,

所以，科技玩家仍然在 努力破解這兩個元素，

voice and breadth.

聲音和廣泛度。

On voice, as I said, Alexa, Google Home, Siri and the likes,

聲音方面，如我先前所言，

Alexa、Google Home、 Siri，及其他類似工具

they don't understand us entirely and systematically for now.

目前它們無法完全 且系統性地了解我們。

Actually, understanding human language is difficult.

事實上，了解人類語言是很困難的。

It's as much about the context

除了要了解字詞本身之外，

as it is about the words themselves.

了解前後文和情境也同等重要。

And think about the accents or background noise.

且，想想看口音和背景噪音。

It's already very difficult for Americans

美國人就已經很難

to understand French people speaking English,

聽懂法國人說的英文了，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

so can you imagine how difficult it can be for a robot?

各位能想像這對機器人 而言有多困難嗎？

So tech players are working hard on this.

科技人很努力在想辦法。

In 2018, Google launched an investment program

2018 年，Google 推出了一個投資計畫，

for start-ups that would work with their Google Home suites.

對象是願意和 Google Home 軟體套組合作的新創公司。

And since then, they have invested in over 15 companies.

從那之後，他們已經 投資了至少十五間公司。

Amazon has 10,000 employees

亞馬遜有一萬名員工

working on Alexa voice technologies.

投入在 Alexa 的聲音技術上。

So they will eventually crack the voice issues.

最終，他們會解決聲音的問題。

The smart assistants will be able to understand what we say,

智慧助理將能了解我們說的話，

the meaning of the words in their context.

在前後文情境之下，字詞的意義。

For example, if I’m using my smart assistant, and I’m listening to music,

舉例來說，

如果我在用我的智慧助理，

且我正在聽音樂，

and then I say, "Change."

接著，我說「換掉（改變）」。

VA: Hi, Karen.

語音助理：嗨，凱倫。 你想要改變房間的溫度嗎？

Do you want to change the temperature of the room?

KLT: Well, clearly this is not working yet,

講者：很顯然，還行不通。

but in the future,

但，在未來，

it will understand that I'm talking about changing the track,

它會知道我是想要換一首歌來聽，

not changing the temperature of the room.

而不是改變房間的溫度。

It will also understand our long and complex requests.

它也會了解我們又長又複雜的要求。

You know, when we start saying something

當我們開始說某件事，

and then we change our mind mid-sentence.

接著我們說到一半又改變心意。

But that doesn't stop here.

但還不只這樣。

With far-field speech recognition,

有了遠音場的說話辨識，

you will be able to use it from a distance,

你就可以從遠處使用它，

from a room to another.

在這個房間對那個房間說話。

Even with background noise like kids screaming or traffic.

即使背景有孩子尖叫 或馬路上的噪音也行。

(Kids shout, whistle blows)

（孩子叫鬧聲，吹哨子聲）

Tremendous progress has been made on this recently,

近期這方面已經有很大的進展，

largely due to Amazon's efforts on their Echo speaker technology.

主要的原因是亞馬遜在

Echo 音箱技術上所做的努力。

Not only that.

不只如此。

It will be able to understand in which mood you’re in --

它也會了解你的心情——

joy, sadness, annoyance --

喜悅、悲傷、煩惱——

and will be able to mimic these feelings too.

且也能夠模仿這些感受。

And as natural language processing advances further --

隨著自然語言處理越來越進步——

so natural language processing is the technology behind this --

自然語言處理是這背後 所使用的技術——

so as it advances further,

隨著它越來越進步，

the voice-enabled interactions will increasingly be refined.

聲控互動也會越來越精緻。

Now, the second challenge and the biggest, in my opinion,

第二個挑戰，

也是我認為最大的挑戰，

revolves around the breadth of recommendations provided.

和助理提供的建議有多廣泛有關。

Will they be able to --

它們能不能——

What will be their range of actions?

它們能採取哪些行動？

Will they remain limited to very specific tasks,

它們會繼續被限制 只能做特定的工作任務？

or will they be able to become a true companion across your day

或者它們會變成 你一天當中真正的夥伴，

to which you can ask whatever you want,

你可以對它們問任何問題、 提出任何要求？

whatever you need?

For example, taking notes in a meeting

比如，在會議中做記錄，

or reordering milk

或者重新訂購牛奶，

or even mental health coaching.

或者甚至做心理健康輔導。

Will they be able to provide you recommendations

它們提供你的建議，

across product categories?

能橫跨不同類別的產品嗎？

Today,

現今，

companies provide us recommendations within one specific category,

企業只能在同一個類別當中

提供我們建議，比如， 它們能協助我們選擇

for example, that can help us choose between two dresses,

兩件衣服哪一件好，

between two books.

兩本書哪一本好。

In the future, the smart assistants will actually be able to help us choose

在未來，智慧助理將能協助我們

between buying a book or buying a dress.

選擇要買書還是買衣服。

So to be able to deliver this integrated and large range of recommendations,

如果要實現這種

整合式且大範圍的推薦功能，

tech teams behind smart assistants will need to design the right algorithms.

智慧助理背後的科技團隊

就必須要設計出對的演算法。

And these algorithms will need to be powerful enough

且這些演算法必須要夠強大，

to process a myriad of data points.

要能處理大量的資料點、

To identify patterns,

辨識出模式、

to model courses of actions,

為行動步驟建立模型，

and also to learn from end users' feedback.

還要能從終端使用者的 回饋意見學習。

But, a world where smart assistants become unavoidable

但，

當智慧助理變成必然的趨勢時，

means new priorities for all companies,

所有公司都會有新的優先順序，

not only the smart assistant players.

不僅是和智慧助理相關的那些。

Every business in the future will need to accelerate drastically

未來的所有企業都會需要大大加速

on data and algorithm,

資料和演算法，

on voice-enabled interactions.

以及聲控互動。

And also, they will need to be entrusted by consumers

此外，消費者也會仰賴它們

to provide recommendations.

提供建議。

This is what I like to summarize in three words,

我想要用三個詞把這一切做個總結，

in the three imperatives that are data, tech and trust.

三個必要元素：資料、科技、信賴。

So the moment the breadth challenge

廣泛度的難題

and the voice challenge get solved

和聲音的難題被解決的時刻，

will be a tipping point

就會是個關鍵轉折點，

in smart assistant usage and adoption by consumers.

消費者使用和採用 智慧助理的轉折點。

Today, can you live without your smartphone?

現今，

沒有智慧手機，你活得下去嗎？

I assume not, right?

我猜不行，對吧？

In a few years from now,

幾年之後，

your smart assistant will be a convenient,

你的智慧助理會成為

很方便、很強大、

powerful, reliable helper

很可靠的幫手，

essential in your day-to-day life.

在你的日常生活中非常重要。

So you won't be able to live without it.

沒有它，你就活不下去。

And unlike your smartphones,

和智慧手機不同，

it will be embedded in every device around you.

它會被內建在你周圍的 每一個裝置當中。

Your smartphone itself, of course,

當然包括你的智慧手機，

but also your car, the mirrors,

還有你的汽車、

你的鏡子、

your fridge, your glasses

你的冰箱、你的眼鏡，

and who knows what other device in the future.

還有其他未來可能出現的裝置。

So are you ready for a smarter life?

所以，各位準備好迎接 更有智慧的生活了嗎？

VA: Yes, Karen, I am.

語音助理：是的，凱倫， 我準備好了。（笑聲）

(Laughter)

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）