How centuries of sci-fi sparked spaceflight | Alex MacDonald

翻译人员: zoe chan 校对人员: psjmz mz

I want to tell you a story about stories.

今天我想讲一个关于小说的故事。

And I want to tell you this story because I think we need to remember

我之所以想分享这个故事 是因为我认为我们需要记住，

that sometimes the stories we tell each other

有时我们向别人讲述的故事

are more than just tales or entertainment or narratives.

并不仅仅是传说，或只为博君一笑 或为了记叙的故事。

They're also vehicles

它们也承载着

for sowing inspiration and ideas across our societies

我们传播跨越社会和

and across time.

时间的奇思妙想。

The story I'm about to tell you

今天我讲的故事

is about how one of the most advanced technological achievements

是关于一个现代的

最高先进的科技成就

of the modern era

has its roots in stories,

是如何起源于一个小说故事，

and how some of the most important transformations yet to come might also.

以及一些最重要的，还未发生 的变革为何也是如此。

The story begins over 300 years ago,

这个故事发生在三百多年前，

when Galileo Galilei first learned of the recent Dutch invention

在伽利略初次了解到一个 当时最新的荷兰发明的时候，

that took two pieces of shaped glass and put them in a long tube

这个发明是将两片打磨过的玻璃 放入一个长管道里，

and thereby extended human sight farther than ever before.

并且从此将人类视野 延伸到从未有过的远度。

When Galileo turned his new telescope to the heavens

当伽利略将他新发明的望远镜对向天际

and to the Moon in particular,

并且特别对准月亮时，

he discovered something incredible.

他得到了惊人的发现。

These are pages from Galileo's book "Sidereus Nuncius," published in 1610.

这些内容来源于伽利略 1610年出版的《星际信使》。

And in them, he revealed to the world what he had discovered.

他在这本书里向世界揭示了他的发现。

And what he discovered was that the Moon was not just a celestial object

他发现月球不仅仅是一个

在夜空中游荡的天体，

wandering across the night sky,

but rather, it was a world,

而是一个

a world with high, sunlit mountains

拥有阳光照射的高山

and dark "mare," the Latin word for seas.

以深邃的“海洋"的世界。

And once this new world and the Moon had been discovered,

这个新世界和月亮的大门一旦开启，

people immediately began to think about how to travel there.

人们立即开始思考如何到月球旅行。

And just as importantly,

同样重要的是，

they began to write stories

他们开始着手撰写关于

about how that might happen

如何实现月球旅行

and what those voyages might be like.

以及航行细节的小说故事。

One of the first people to do so was actually the Bishop of Hereford,

实际上赫里福德主教是最早一批 开始做这些事的人之一，

a man named Francis Godwin.

他的真实名字是弗朗西斯·戈德温。

Godwin wrote a story about a Spanish explorer,

戈德温写了一个关于西班牙探险家

Domingo Gonsales,

多明戈·冈萨雷斯的故事，

who ended up marooned on the island of St. Helena

他被困在大西洋中间

in the middle of the Atlantic,

一个叫做圣赫勒拿的岛上，

and there, in an effort to get home,

而他为了回到家乡，

developed a machine, an invention,

发明了一个机器，

to harness the power of the local wild geese

这个机器可以驾驭当地的野生大雁

载着他飞行——

to allow him to fly --

and eventually to embark on a voyage to the Moon.

并最终开启了一段前往月球的行程。

Godwin's book, "The Man in the Moone, or a Discourse of a Voyage Thither,"

戈德温写的《月中人或论月球之旅》

was only published posthumously and anonymously in 1638,

在他死后的1638年才被匿名的出版，

likely on account of the number of controversial ideas that it contained,

这极有可能是因为书中 包含着饱受争议的观点，

including an endorsement of the Copernican view of the universe

包括对哥白尼日心说

that put the Sun at the center of the Solar System,

宇宙观的支持，

as well as a pre-Newtonian concept of gravity

以及在牛顿之前提出的万有引力概念，

that had the idea that the weight of an object

即一个物体的重量

would decrease with increasing distance from Earth.

随着与地球距离增加而减少。

And that's to say nothing of his idea of a goose machine

他的大雁机器想法也就是说说而已，

that could go to the Moon.

肯定是无法到月球的。

(Laughter)

（观众笑）

And while this idea of a voyage to the Moon by goose machine

尽管这个利用大雁机器 飞向月球的想法

might not seem particularly insightful or technically creative to us today,

在今天看来并无远见， 技术上也没有创意，

what's important is that Godwin described getting to the Moon not by a dream

但重要的是戈德温描述的 不是通过做梦或

or by magic, as Johannes Kepler had written about,

像开普勒写的那样通过魔法实现登月，

but rather, through human invention.

而是通过人类发明实现。

And it was this idea that we could build machines

正是我们能够建造

that could travel into the heavens,

可以遨游天际的机器

that would plant its seed in minds across the generations.

这一思想在世世代代的人心中 播下了种子。

The idea was next taken up by his contemporary, John Wilkins,

接着，同时代的约翰·威尔金斯 继承了戈德温的思想，

then just a young student at Oxford,

当时他只是一名来自 牛津大学的年轻学生，

but later, one of the founders of the Royal Society.

但后来，他成为了 英国皇家学会的创始人之一。

John Wilkins took the idea of space travel in Godwin's text seriously

约翰·威尔金斯认真汲取了 戈德温书中太空旅行的观点，

and wrote not just another story

并在此基础上完成了另一个故事。

but a nonfiction philosophical treatise,

这是一篇非虚构类哲学类专著，

entitled, "Discovery of the New World in the Moon,

题目是《新世界的发现

or, a Discourse Tending to Prove

或一种倾向于证明

that 'tis Probable There May Be Another Habitable World in that Planet."

那颗行星上可能有个 可居住的世界的论述》。

And note, by the way, that word "habitable."

注意“可居住“这个词。

That idea in itself would have been a powerful incentive

这个想法本身就能强烈激励

for people thinking about how to build machines that could go there.

人们思考怎样建造通往那里的机器。

In his books, Wilkins seriously considered a number of technical methods

在书中，威尔金斯严谨地 考虑了几种太空飞行的

for spaceflight,

技术方法，

and it remains to this day the earliest known nonfiction account

这是已知最早的非虚构类的

of how we might travel to the Moon.

关于我们如何登月的说明。

Other stories would soon follow, most notably by Cyrano de Bergerac,

其他故事接踵而至，最有名的 是西拉诺·德·贝尔热拉克的

with his "Lunar Tales."

《月球传说》。

By the mid-17th century, the idea of people building machines

到17世纪中期，人们建机器

that could travel to the heavens

飞向太空的想法

was growing in complexity and technical nuance.

逐渐趋于复杂和技术差异化。

And yet, in the late 17th century,

但在十七世纪晚期，

这项智力上的进步实际上停止了。

this intellectual progress effectively ceased.

People still told stories about getting to the Moon,

人们虽然依旧讲述着 去往月亮的故事，

but they relied on the old ideas

但他们依赖着过去的想法，

or, once again, on dreams or on magic.

或是再一次依赖于梦或是魔法。

Why?

为什么？

Well, because the discovery of the laws of gravity by Newton

因为牛顿发现的万有引力定律

and the invention of the vacuum pump by Robert Hooke and Robert Boyle

以及罗伯特·胡克与 罗伯特·波伊尔发明的真空泵

意味着人们现在认识到

meant that people now understood

that a condition of vacuum existed between the planets,

星球之间存在真空环境，

and consequentially between the Earth and the Moon.

因此推断地球与月球 之间也是如此。

And they had no way of overcoming this,

他们没有克服的方法，

no way of thinking about overcoming this.

也没有思考如何克服。

And so, for well over a century,

一个多世纪过去了，

the idea of a voyage to the Moon made very little intellectual progress

登月想法实质上只有细微的进展。

until the rise of the Industrial Revolution

这种情况持续到工业革命兴起。

and the development of steam engines and boilers

蒸汽机和锅炉的发展，

and most importantly, pressure vessels.

最重要的是压力容器的发明。

And these gave people the tools to think about how they could build a capsule

这赋予人们工具来建造

that could resist the vacuum of space.

能抵御真空宇宙的太空舱。

So it was in this context, in 1835,

在这一背景下，1835年，

that the next great story of spaceflight was written,

下一个宇宙航行的故事

by Edgar Allan Poe.

被爱伦·坡所写。

Now, today we think of Poe in terms of gothic poems

如今，我们提到爱伦·坡， 就会想到哥特诗、

and telltale hearts and ravens.

短篇小说《泄密的心》 以及诗歌《乌鸦》，

But he considered himself a technical thinker.

但是他认为自己是一个技术思想家。

He grew up in Baltimore,

他在巴尔的摩长大，

the first American city with gas street lighting,

一个最早拥有燃气路灯的美国城市，

and he was fascinated by the technological revolution

他被在他周围发生的

that he saw going on all around him.

技术革命所吸引。

He considered his own greatest work not to be one of his gothic tales

他认为自己的最大成就 不是他的哥特诗，

but rather his epic prose poem "Eureka,"

而是他史诗般的散文诗歌《我发现了》。

in which he expounded his own personal view

他详述了自己关于

of the cosmographical nature of the universe.

宇宙的结构本质的个人观点。

In his stories, he would describe in fantastical technical detail

他在故事中详细描述了空想的

machines and contraptions,

机器装置技术，

and nowhere was he more influential in this than in his short story,

在这方面，他的短篇小说 《汉斯·普法尔历险记》

"The Unparalleled Adventure of One Hans Pfaall."

最有影响力。

It's a story of an unemployed bellows maker in Rotterdam,

小说讲述了一个 在鹿特丹做风箱的失业者，

who, depressed and tired of life -- this is Poe, after all --

抑郁不得志，厌倦了人生 ——这毕竟是爱伦·坡的风格——

and deeply in debt,

而且欠了一屁股债的故事。

he decides to build a hermetically enclosed balloon-borne carriage

他决定建造一个气密封闭 的气球运输船，

that is launched into the air by dynamite

通过炸药发射到空中，

and from there, floats through the vacuum of space

并从那里漂浮到太空中，

all the way to the lunar surface.

一直到月球表面。

And importantly, he did not develop this story alone,

重要的是，这个故事 并不是他独自的创作，

for in the appendix to his tale,

在故事的附录中，

he explicitly acknowledged Godwin's "A Man in the Moone"

他明确地承认了这本书受到戈德温

from over 200 years earlier

200多年前的小说《月中人》

as an influence,

的影响，

calling it "a singular and somewhat ingenious little book."

他称这是“一本非凡绝妙的小书”。

And although this idea of a balloon-borne voyage to the Moon may seem

虽然这个利用气球运输机 去往月球的想法

not much more technically sophisticated than the goose machine,

看起来在技术上 比大雁机器靠谱不了多少，

in fact, Poe was sufficiently detailed

但事实上，爱伦坡非常详细的

in the description of the construction of the device

描述了设备的构造，

and in terms of the orbital dynamics of the voyage

并且就航行的轨道动力学而言，

that it could be diagrammed in the very first spaceflight encyclopedia

它可以在第一本航天百科全书中

as a mission in the 1920s.

作为20世纪20年代的使命来描绘。

And it was this attention to detail, or to "verisimilitude," as he called it,

正是对于细节的专注或 如他自己所说的“逼真”，

that would influence the next great story:

影响了下一个伟大的故事——

Jules Verne's "From the Earth to the Moon," written in 1865.

凡尔纳在1865年写了《从地球到月球》。

And it's a story that has a remarkable legacy

这是一个给后世留下了 伟大遗产的故事，

and a remarkable similarity to the real voyages to the Moon

与真正发生于百年之后的

that would take place over a hundred years later.

月球之旅有着惊人的相似之处。

Because in the story, the first voyage to the Moon takes place from Florida,

因为在这个故事里， 第一次登月始于佛罗里达，

with three people on board,

飞船上有三人，

in a trip that takes three days --

经历了3天行程——

exactly the parameters that would prevail during the Apollo program itself.

这些数据与阿波罗计划完全一致。

And in an explicit tribute to Poe's influence on him,

为了向爱伦坡致敬，

Verne situated the group responsible for this feat in the book in Baltimore,

凡尔纳将这本书中 负责这一伟大壮举的组织

at the Baltimore Gun Club,

设立在巴尔的摩枪支俱乐部。

with its members shouting, "Cheers for Edgar Poe!"

当他们开始制定征服月球的计划时，

as they began to lay out their plans for their conquest of the Moon.

成员们大喊“为爱伦坡干杯！”

And just as Verne was influenced by Poe,

正如凡尔纳深受爱伦坡的影响，

so, too, would Verne's own story go on to influence and inspire

凡尔纳自己的故事接着启发影响了

the first generation of rocket scientists.

第一代火箭科学家们。

The two great pioneers of liquid fuel rocketry in Russia and in Germany,

两位分别来自于俄罗斯与德国 的液体燃料火箭的先驱，

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky and Hermann Oberth,

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky 与 Hermann Oberth，

both traced their own commitment to the field of spaceflight

他们投身于太空飞行领域都能追溯到

to their reading "From the Earth to the Moon" as teenagers,

青少年时期读了《从地球到月球》这本书，

and then subsequently committing themselves

然后致力于

to trying to make that story a reality.

使这个故事成真。

And Verne's story was not the only one in the 19th century

凡尔纳的故事不是十九世纪唯一

with a long arm of influence.

有长远影响的一个。

On the other side of the Atlantic,

在大西洋的另一边，

H.G. Wells's "War of the Worlds" directly inspired

威尔斯的《世界大战》直接启发了

a young man in Massachusetts, Robert Goddard.

一个麻省的年轻人，罗伯特·戈达德。

And it was after reading "War of the Worlds"

正是在读了《世界大战》后，

他在日记里写道，

that Goddard wrote in his diary,

19世纪90年代末的一天，

one day in the late 1890s,

of resting while trimming a cherry tree on his family's farm

他在家里的农场修剪樱桃树时，

and having a vision of a spacecraft taking off from the valley below

在脑海中浮现了宇宙飞船 从下面的山谷起飞

and ascending into the heavens.

上升到空中这一幕。

And he decided then and there that he would commit the rest of his life

从此他决定将余生奉献于研发

to the development of the spacecraft that he saw in his mind's eye.

他脑海中出现的宇宙飞船。

And he did exactly that.

他的确做到了。

Throughout his career, he would celebrate that day

在他的职业生涯中， 他将修剪樱桃树那一天

as his anniversary day, his cherry tree day,

作为他的周年纪念日来庆祝，

and he would regularly read and reread the works of Verne and of Wells

为了不断获得灵感， 不断提醒自己的承诺，

in order to renew his inspiration and his commitment

他反复研读凡尔纳与威尔斯的著作，

over the decades of labor and effort that would be required

经过数十年的努力工作，

to realize the first part of his dream:

终于在1926年

the flight of a liquid fuel rocket,

实现了梦想的第一部分——

which he finally achieved in 1926.

发明了液体火箭。

So it was while reading "From the Earth to the Moon" and "The War of the Worlds"

正是在《从地球到月球》 和《世界大战》这些书中，

第一批航天先驱受到启发， 并将其一生投入到

that the first pioneers of astronautics were inspired to dedicate their lives

解决宇宙飞船的问题中。

to solving the problems of spaceflight.

正是他们的文章与作品

And it was their treatises and their works in turn

that inspired the first technical communities

促进了第一个技术社区

and the first projects of spaceflight,

和第一个宇宙飞行项目的诞生，

thus creating a direct chain of influence

从而形成了直接的影响力链。

that goes from Godwin to Poe to Verne

从戈德温到爱伦坡、凡尔纳，

to the Apollo program

再到阿波罗计划，

and to the present-day communities of spaceflight.

直到今天的宇宙飞行。

So why I have told you all this?

我讲这些故事的原因

Is it just because I think it's cool,

仅仅是因为我觉得这很酷吗？

or because I'm just weirdly fascinated by stories

还是仅仅因为我被这些奇怪的，

of 17th- and 19th-century science fiction?

17或19世纪的科幻小说 所深深地吸引着？

It is, admittedly, partly that.

我承认，这是部分原因。

But I also think that these stories remind us

但更重要的是，这些故事提醒着我们，

of the cultural processes driving spaceflight

文化进程推动了宇宙飞行

and even technological innovation more broadly.

甚至更广义上的技术创新。

As an economist working at NASA,

作为一名在美国宇航局 工作的经济学家，

I spend time thinking about the economic origins

我常思考有关人类迈向宇宙的

of our movement out into the cosmos.

经济起源。

And when you look before the investments of billionaire tech entrepreneurs

在来自科技圈的 亿万富翁企业家的投资，

and before the Cold War Space Race,

冷战时期的太空竞赛，

and even before the military investments in liquid fuel rocketry,

甚至在军方投资液体燃料火箭之前，

the economic origins of spaceflight are found in stories and in ideas.

太空旅行就已经起源于故事和想法中。

It was in these stories that the first concepts for spaceflight were articulated.

正是在这些故事里，人们构建了 第一个太空飞行的概念，

And it was through these stories

也正是通过这些故事，

that the narrative of a future for humanity in space

对未来人类在太空生活的憧憬

began to propagate from mind to mind,

开始在大众的脑海中传播开来，

eventually creating an intergenerational intellectual community

并最终形成了跨越几代人 的知识共同体，

that would iterate on the ideas for spacecraft

去不断迭代太空飞船的构思，

until such a time as they could finally be built.

直到真的建成太空飞船。

This process has now been going on for over 300 years,

这个过程一直持续了三百多年，

and the result is a culture of spaceflight.

形成了太空飞行文化。

It's a culture that involves thousands of people

数千人在几百年间

over hundreds of years.

对其做出了贡献。

Because for hundreds of years, some of us have looked at the stars

因为上百年来，我们当中的 一些人在不断仰望星空，

渴望登月。

and longed to go.

因为几百年来，

And because for hundreds of years,

我们中的一些人致力于

some of us have dedicated our labors

to the development of the concepts and systems

发展使这些航行成为可能

required to make those voyages possible.

所需要的概念和系统。

I also wanted to tell you about Godwin, Poe and Verne

我给大家讲述戈德温、 爱伦坡和凡尔纳的故事，

because I think their stories also tell us of the importance

是因为我认为他们的故事告诉了我们

of the stories that we tell each other about the future more generally.

人们口口相传的关于未来的 故事具有更普遍的重要性。

Because these stories don't just transmit information or ideas.

因为这些故事不仅仅 传递了信息或想法，

They can also nurture passions,

还孕育了一种激情，

passions that can lead us to dedicate our lives

一种可以让人贡献一生

to the realization of important projects.

去实现重要计划的激情。

Which means that these stories can and do

这意味着这些故事也确实可以

influence social and technological forces

影响未来几个世纪的

centuries into the future.

社会和科技进步。

I think we need to realize this and remember it when we tell our stories.

我认为当我们讲故事的时候， 需要意识到并牢记这点。

We need to work hard to write stories

我们需要努力地撰写故事，

不只是说明我们可能 走上的反乌托邦道路

that don't just show us the possible dystopian paths we may take

是出于这样一种恐惧， 即对彼此讲述的反乌托邦故事越多，

for a fear that the more dystopian stories we tell each other,

the more we plant seeds for possible dystopian futures.

我们为可能的反乌托邦未来 播下的种子就越多。

Instead we need to tell stories that plant the seeds,

相反，我们需要讲述一些故事，

if not necessarily for utopias,

即使不一定是为乌托邦播下种子，

then at least for great new projects of technological, societal

至少也要为伟大的新技术、 社会和体制改革项目

and institutional transformation.

播下种子。

And if we think of this idea that the stories we tell each other

如果我们认为 我们对彼此讲述的故事

can transform the future

可以扭转未来的这个想法

is fanciful or impossible,

是异想天开或是不可能的话，

then I think we need to remember the example of this,

那么我认为我们需要记住一个例子，

our voyage to the Moon,

我们的探月之旅，

an idea from the 17th century

这个从17世纪便浮现的想法，

that propagated culturally for over 300 years

已经在文化中传播了超过300年，

until it could finally be realized.

直到探月之旅最终实现。

So, we need to write new stories,

因此，我们需要撰写新的故事，

stories that, 300 years in the future,

让人们在300年以后的未来

people will be able to look back upon and remark

可以通过这些故事回溯过去，去评价

how they inspired us to new heights and to new shores,

它们是如何启发人们到达 新的高度，突破新的边界。

how they showed us new paths and new possibilities,

它们是如何向我们展示 新道路和新的可能性，

and how they shaped our world for the better.

以及它们是如何更好地 塑造了我们的世界。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）