Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change

Prevodilac: Maja Dimitrovska Lektor: Mile Živković

We live in a very complex environment:

Živimo u vrlo složenom okruženju -

complexity and dynamism

složenost i dinamičnost

and patterns of evidence

i obrasci dokaza

from satellite photographs, from videos.

sa satelitskih snimaka, videa.

You can even see it outside your window.

Možemo ih čak videti i sa našeg prozora.

It's endlessly complex, but somehow familiar,

Beskonačno su složeni, ali nekako poznati,

but the patterns kind of repeat,

ali obrasci se nekako ponavljaju.

but they never repeat exactly.

ali nikad u potpunosti.

It's a huge challenge to understand.

To je veliki izazov za razumeti.

The patterns that you see

Obrasci koje vidite

are there at all of the different scales,

postoje u svim različitim razmerama,

but you can't chop it into one little bit and say,

ali, ne možete izdvojiti jedan mali delić i reći:

"Oh, well let me just make a smaller climate."

"Hajde da napravim manju klimu."

I can't use the normal products of reductionism

Ne mogu da koristim uobičajene metode redukcije

to get a smaller and smaller thing that I can study

da bih dobio što manji delić koji mogu da proučavam

in a laboratory and say, "Oh,

u laboratoriji, i kažem: "Oh,

now that's something I now understand."

pa to je nešto što konačno razumem."

It's the whole or it's nothing.

Ili je celo ili nije ništa.

The different scales that give you

Različite razmere koje proizvode

these kinds of patterns

ovakve vrste obrazaca

range over an enormous range of magnitude,

kreću se preko ogromnog raspona veličina,

roughly 14 orders of magnitude,

otprilike 14 redova veličine,

from the small microscopic particles

od malih mikroskopskih čestica

that seed clouds

oko kojih se formiraju oblaci

to the size of the planet itself,

do veličine same planete,

from 10 to the minus six

od 10 na minus šesti

to 10 to the eight,

do 10 na osmi,

14 orders of spatial magnitude.

14 redova veličine u prostoru.

In time, from milliseconds to millennia,

U vremenu, od milisekunda do milenijuma,

again around 14 orders of magnitude.

i opet, oko 14 redova veličine.

What does that mean?

Šta to znači?

Okay, well if you think about how

Pa dobro, ako mislite na to kako

you can calculate these things,

da izračunate ove stvari,

you can take what you can see,

možete uzeti ono što vidite,

okay, I'm going to chop it up

OK, usitniću to

into lots of little boxes,

na mnogo malih kutijica,

and that's the result of physics, right?

a to je rezultat fizike, zar ne?

And if I think about a weather model,

A ako govorimo o klimatskom modelu,

that spans about five orders of magnitude,

koji obuhvata oko 5 redova veličine,

from the planet to a few kilometers,

počevši od planete do nekoliko kilometara,

and the time scale

i vremenska skala

from a few minutes to 10 days, maybe a month.

od nekoliko minuta do 10 dana, možda jedan mesec.

We're interested in more than that.

Interesuje nas više od toga.

We're interested in the climate.

Nas interesuje klima.

That's years, that's millennia,

U pitanju su godine, milenijumi,

and we need to go to even smaller scales.

moramo da idemo u još sitnije razmere.

The stuff that we can't resolve,

Deliće koje ne možemo dalje rastaviti,

the sub-scale processes,

najsitnije procese

we need to approximate in some way.

moramo da aproksimiramo na neki način.

That is a huge challenge.

To je ogroman izazov.

Climate models in the 1990s

Klimatski modeli 90-tih

took an even smaller chunk of that,

posmatrali su još manji deo svega,

only about three orders of magnitude.

samo tri reda veličine.

Climate models in the 2010s,

Klimatski modeli posle 2010,

kind of what we're working with now,

ono sa čime danas radimo,

four orders of magnitude.

četiri reda veličine.

We have 14 to go,

Ostalo nam je još 14

and we're increasing our capability

i uvećavamo našu sposobnost

of simulating those at about

da ih simuliramo za

one extra order of magnitude every decade.

otprilike 1 red veličine, svake decenije.

One extra order of magnitude in space

Jedan dodatni red veličine u prostoru

is 10,000 times more calculations.

znači 10.000 puta više izračunavanja.

And we keep adding more things,

A mi nastavljamo da dodajemo stvari,

more questions to these different models.

sve više pitanja za različite modele.

So what does a climate model look like?

Dobro, kako izgleda klimatski model?

This is an old climate model, admittedly,

Doduše, ovo je stari klimatski model,

a punch card, a single line of Fortran code.

bušena kartica, jedan red Fortran koda.

We no longer use punch cards.

Više ne koristimo bušene kartice.

We do still use Fortran.

Ali još uvek koristimo Fortran.

New-fangled ideas like C

Novotarije poput C

really haven't had a big impact

nisu imale veliki uticaj

on the climate modeling community.

na zajednicu koja pravi klimatske modele.

But how do we go about doing it?

Ali, kako mi to radimo?

How do we go from that complexity that you saw

Kako preći sa složenosti koju ste videli

to a line of code?

na jedan red koda?

We do it one piece at a time.

Radimo to parče po parče.

This is a picture of sea ice

Ovo je slika morskog leda

taken flying over the Arctic.

napravljena iz aviona iznad Arktika.

We can look at all of the different equations

Možemo da gledamo sve ove razne jednačine

that go into making the ice grow

koje predstavljaju rast leda

or melt or change shape.

ili topljenje, ili promenu oblika.

We can look at the fluxes.

Možemo posmatrati tokove.

We can look at the rate at which

Možemo posmatrati brzinu kojom se

snow turns to ice, and we can code that.

sneg pretvara u led, i to možemo da kodiramo.

We can encapsulate that in code.

To možemo da obuhvatimo kodom.

These models are around

Ovi modeli imaju oko

a million lines of code at this point,

milion redova koda u ovom trenutku,

and growing by tens of thousands of lines of code

i rastu za desetine hiljada redova koda

every year.

svake godine.

Dakle, možemo da posmatramo ovo parče,

So you can look at that piece,

but you can look at the other pieces too.

ali možemo da posmatramo i druge delove.

What happens when you have clouds?

Šta se dešava kad imamo oblake?

What happens when clouds form,

Šta se dešava kad se oblaci formiraju,

when they dissipate, when they rain out?

kad se raspšuju, kad iz njih pada kiša?

That's another piece.

To je još jedan delić.

What happens when we have radiation

Šta se dešava kad imamo radijaciju

coming from the sun, going through the atmosphere,

koja od sunca prodire kroz atmosferu

being absorbed and reflected?

i upija se ili odbija?

We can code each of those very small pieces as well.

I ove, vrlo male deliće takođe možemo da kodiramo.

There are other pieces:

Ima još delova:

the winds changing the ocean currents.

vetrovi koji menjaju okeanske struje.

We can talk about the role of vegetation

Možemo govoriti o ulozi vegetacije

in transporting water from the soils

u transportu vode sa površine zemlje

back into the atmosphere.

natrag u atmosferu.

And each of these different elements

I svaki od ovih različitih elemenata

we can encapsulate and put into a system.

možemo da obuhvatimo i postavimo u sistem.

Each of those pieces ends up adding to the whole.

Svaki od ovih delova doprinosi celini.

And you get something like this.

I dobićete nešto ovako:

You get a beautiful representation

dobićete divan prikaz

of what's going on in the climate system,

onoga što se dešava u klimatskom sistemu,

where each and every one of those

gde svaki od ovih

emergent patterns that you can see,

proizašlih oblika koje vidite,

the swirls in the Southern Ocean,

kovitlaci u Južnom okeanu,

the tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico,

tropski ciklon u Meksičkom zalivu,

and there's two more that are going to pop up

i još dva koja će tek da se pojave

in the Pacific at any point now,

u Tihom okeanu u svakom trenutku,

those rivers of atmospheric water,

ove reke atmosferske vode,

all of those are emergent properties

sve to su nova svojstva

that come from the interactions

koja proističu iz interakcija

of all of those small-scale processes I mentioned.

svih ovih malih procesa koje sam pominjao.

There's no code that says,

Ne postoji taj kod koji će da kaže:

"Do a wiggle in the Southern Ocean."

"Talasaj u Južnom okeanu".

There's no code that says, "Have two

Ne postoji kod koji kaže: "Uzmite dva

tropical cyclones that spin around each other."

tropska ciklona koja se okreću jedan oko drugog".

All of those things are emergent properties.

Sve ove pojave su nova svojstva.

This is all very good. This is all great.

Sve je ovo dobro. Sve je ovo odlično.

But what we really want to know

Ali stvarno želimo da znamo

is what happens to these emergent properties

šta se dešava sa ovim novim svojstvima

when we kick the system?

kada udarimo na sistem.

When something changes, what happens to those properties?

Kada se nešto promeni, šta se dešava sa svojstvima?

And there's lots of different ways to kick the system.

A postoji mnogo načina da udarimo sistem.

There are wobbles in the Earth's orbit

Imamo kolebanja u Zemljinoj orbiti

over hundreds of thousands of years

već stotinama hiljada godina

that change the climate.

koja utiču na promenu klime.

There are changes in the solar cycles,

Postoje promene u solarnim ciklusima,

every 11 years and longer, that change the climate.

svakih 11 godina ili duže, koje takođe menjaju klimu.

Big volcanoes go off and change the climate.

Erupcije velikih vulkana menjaju klimu.

Changes in biomass burning, in smoke,

Promene u sagorevlju biomase, u dimu,

in aerosol particles, all of those things

u aerosolnim česticama, sve ove pojave

change the climate.

utiču na promenu klime.

The ozone hole changed the climate.

Ozonska rupa je promenila klimu.

Deforestation changes the climate

Krčenje šuma menja klimu

by changing the surface properties

promenom svojstava zemljine površine

and how water is evaporated

i načina na koji voda isparava

and moved around in the system.

i kako se kreće u sistemu.

Contrails change the climate

Kondenzacioni tragovi aviona menjaju klimu

by creating clouds where there were none before,

stvarajući oblake tamo gde ih nije bilo.

and of course greenhouse gases change the system.

i naravno, efekat staklene bašte utiče i menja sistem.

Each of these different kicks

Svaki od ovih različitih udaraca

provides us with a target

postavlja nam za cilj

to evaluate whether we understand

da procenimo da li smo razumeli

something about this system.

nešto o ovom sistemu.

So we can go to look at

Tako, možemo da pogledamo

what model skill is.

sta je veština pravljenja modela.

Now I use the word "skill" advisedly:

Reč "veština" koristim promišljeno.

Models are not right or wrong; they're always wrong.

Modeli nisu u pravu ili ne; nikad nisu u pravu.

They're always approximations.

Oni su uvek samo aproksimacije.

The question you have to ask

Pitanje koje treba postaviti

is whether a model tells you more information

je da li nam model daje više informacija

than you would have had otherwise.

nego što bi ih imali inače.

If it does, it's skillful.

Ako da, onda je vešto napravljen.

This is the impact of the ozone hole

Ovo je uticaj ozonske rupe

on sea level pressure, so low pressure, high pressures,

na pritisak na nivou mora, nizak pritisak, visok pritisak

around the southern oceans, around Antarctica.

u južnim okeanima, oko Antarktika.

This is observed data.

Ovo su podaci posmatranja.

This is modeled data.

Ovo su podaci iz modela.

There's a good match

Postoji dobro podudaranje

because we understand the physics

zato što mi razumemo fiziku

that controls the temperatures in the stratosphere

koja kontroliše temperaturu u stratosferi

and what that does to the winds

i kako to utiče na vetrove

around the southern oceans.

u južnim okeanima.

We can look at other examples.

Pogledajmo druge primere.

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991

Erupcija vulkana Maunt Pinatubo 1991.

put an enormous amount of aerosols, small particles,

izbacila je ogromnu količinu aerosola, sitnih čestica,

into the stratosphere.

u stratosferu.

That changed the radiation balance of the whole planet.

To je promenilo ravnotežu zračenja na celoj planeti.

There was less energy coming in than there was before,

Manje energije je dolazilo nego pre.

so that cooled the planet,

što je ohladilo planetu,

and those red lines and those green lines,

i ove crvene linije, i zelene linije

those are the differences between what we expected

to su razlike između onoga što smo očekivali

and what actually happened.

i šta se stvarno dogodilo.

The models are skillful,

Modeli su vešto napravljeni,

not just in the global mean,

ne samo kao globalna srednja vrednost,

but also in the regional patterns.

već i u regionalnim oblicima.

I could go through a dozen more examples:

Mogao bih da prođem kroz još tuce primera:

the skill associated with solar cycles,

veština vezana za solarne cikluse,

changing the ozone in the stratosphere;

promena ozona u stratosferi;

the skill associated with orbital changes

veština vezana za promenu orbite

over 6,000 years.

u toku 6000 godina.

We can look at that too, and the models are skillful.

I to možemo da posmatramo, a modeli su vešti.

The models are skillful in response to the ice sheets

Modeli su vešti u reakciji na slojeve leda

20,000 years ago.

od pre 20,000 godina.

The models are skillful

Modeli su vešti

when it comes to the 20th-century trends

što se tiče trendova 20-tog veka

over the decades.

tokom decenija.

Models are successful at modeling

Modeli su uspešni u modeliranju

lake outbursts into the North Atlantic

pojava jezera u severnom Atlantiku

8,000 years ago.

pre 8.000 godina

And we can get a good match to the data.

Možemo dobiti dobro podudaranje sa podacima.

Each of these different targets,

Svaki od ovih različitih ciljeva,

each of these different evaluations,

svaka od ovih procena,

leads us to add more scope

dovodi do toga da dodajemo širi pogled

to these models,

na ove modele,

and leads us to more and more

i vodi nas ka sve složenijim situacijama

complex situations that we can ask

pa možemo da postavljamo

more and more interesting questions,

sve interesantnija pitanja.

like, how does dust from the Sahara,

Na primer, kako prašina iz Sahare

that you can see in the orange,

koju možete da vidite u narandžastoj,

interact with tropical cyclones in the Atlantic?

utiče na tropske ciklone u Atlantiku?

How do organic aerosols from biomass burning,

Kako organski aerosoli koji nastaju sagorevanjem biomase,

which you can see in the red dots,

koje ovde vidite kao crvene tačke,

intersect with clouds and rainfall patterns?

utiču na oblake i obrasce padavina?

How does pollution, which you can see

Kako zagađenje, koje vidite

in the white wisps of sulfate pollution in Europe,

kao bele kovitlace sulfatnog zagađenja u Evropi,

how does that affect the temperatures at the surface

kako to utiče na temperature na površini

and the sunlight that you get at the surface?

i količinu sunčeve svetlosti koje dobijamo na površini?

We can look at this across the world.

Ovo možemo da posmatramo širom sveta.

We can look at the pollution from China.

Možemo da vidimo zagađenje iz Kine.

We can look at the impacts of storms

Možemo da vidimo uticaj oluja

on sea salt particles in the atmosphere.

na čestice morske soli u atmosferi.

We can see the combination

Možemo da vidimo kombinaciju

of all of these different things

svih ovih različitih stvari

happening all at once,

koje se dešavaju, sve odjednom

and we can ask much more interesting questions.

i možemo postavljati mnogo interesantnija pitanja.

How do air pollution and climate coexist?

Kako zagađenje vazduha i klima koegzistiraju?

Can we change things

Da li možemo da izmenimo stvari

that affect air pollution and climate at the same time?

koje utiču na zagađenje vazduha i klimu u isto vreme?

The answer is yes.

Odgovor je, da.

So this is a history of the 20th century.

Ovo je istorija 20-tog veka.

The first one is the model.

prvi je model.

The weather is a little bit different

Vreme je nešto drugačije

to what actually happened.

od onoga što se zaista desilo.

The second one are the observations.

Drugi su posmatranja.

And we're going through the 1930s.

Idemo kroz 30-te.

There's variability, there are things going on,

Ovde imamo varijabilnost, stvari se dešavaju.

but it's all kind of in the noise.

Ali sve to je nekako u pozadini.

As you get towards the 1970s,

Kako se približavamo 70-tim,

things are going to start to change.

stvari počinju da se menjaju.

They're going to start to look more similar,

Počinju sve više da liče,

and by the time you get to the 2000s,

i do trenutka kad dođemo u 2000-te,

you're already seeing the patterns of global warming,

već počinjemo da uočavamo obrasce globalnog zagrevanja,

both in the observations and in the model.

i u pravim posmatranjima i u modelu.

We know what happened over the 20th century.

Znamo šta se dogodilo u 20-tom veku.

Right? We know that it's gotten warmer.

Zar ne? Znamo da je postalo toplije.

We know where it's gotten warmer.

Znamo i zašto je postalo toplije.

And if you ask the models why did that happen,

I ako pitate modele zašto se to dogodilo,

and you say, okay, well, yes,

i kažete, ok, pa da,

basically it's because of the carbon dioxide

u osnovi to je zbog ugljen-dioksida

we put into the atmosphere.

koga ispuštamo u atmosferu.

We have a very good match

Imamo baš dobro podudaranje

up until the present day.

sve do današnjih dana.

But there's one key reason why we look at models,

Ako postoji jedan ključni razlog zašto gledamo u modele,

and that's because of this phrase here.

to je zbog ove fraze ovde:

Because if we had observations of the future,

da imamo rezultate opažanja iz budućnosti,

we obviously would trust them more than models,

očigledno bi im verovali više nego modelima,

But unfortunately,

Ali, na žalost,

observations of the future are not available at this time.

opažanja iz budućnosti u ovom trenutku nisu nam dostupna.

So when we go out into the future, there's a difference.

Zato, kad idemo u budućnost, postoji razlika.

The future is unknown, the future is uncertain,

Budućnost je nepoznata, budućnost je nesigurna,

and there are choices.

ali postoje izbori.

Here are the choices that we have.

Ovo su izbori koje imamo.

We can do some work to mitigate

Možemo nešto uraditi da ublažimo

the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

emisiju ugljen-dioksida u atmosferu.

That's the top one.

To je osnovni izbor.

We can do more work

Možemo još više uraditi

to really bring it down

da ga zaista smanjimo

so that by the end of the century,

tako da ga krajem veka,

it's not much more than there is now.

ne bude mnogo više nego što je sada.

Or we can just leave it to fate

Ili ga možemo samo prepustiti sudbini

and continue on

i nastaviti

with a business-as-usual type of attitude.

da se ponašamo po starom.

The differences between these choices

Razlika između ovih izbora

can't be answered by looking at models.

ne može se videti iz modela.

There's a great phrase

Postoji divna fraza

that Sherwood Rowland,

koju je stvorio Šervud Roland

who won the Nobel Prize for the chemistry

dobitnik Nobelovu nagrade za hemiju

that led to ozone depletion,

vezano za otkriće ozonskog omotača.

when he was accepting his Nobel Prize,

Kada je primao Nobelovu Nagradu,

he asked this question:

postavio je pitanje:

"What is the use of having developed a science

"Kakva je korist razviti nauku

well enough to make predictions if, in the end,

toliko da može da pravi predviđanja, kada, na kraju,

all we're willing to do is stand around

samo stojimo po strani

and wait for them to come true?"

i čekamo da se ona obistine?"

The models are skillful,

Modeli su vešti,

but what we do with the information from those models

ali ono što ćemo da uradimo sa informacijama iz tih modela

is totally up to you.

potpuno zavisi samo od nas.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)