Mammoths resurrected and other thoughts from a futurist | Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Chris Anderson: OK, Stewart,

Kris Anderson: U redu, Stjuarte,

in the '60s, you -- I think it was '68 -- you founded this magazine.

ti si '60-h - mislim da je to bilo '68. - osnovao ovaj časopis.

Stewart Brand: Bravo! It's the original one.

Stjuart Brend: Bravo! To je originalni primerak.

That's hard to find.

Teško ga je naći.

CA: Right. Issue One, right?

KA: Tačno. Prvi broj, je l' da?

SB: Mm hmm.

SB: Mm hm.

CA: Why did that make so much impact?

KA: Zašto je bio toliko uticajan?

SB: Counterculture was the main event that I was part of at the time,

SB: Kontrakultura je bila glavni događaj čiji sam bio deo u to vreme,

and it was made up of hippies and New Left.

a sačinjavali su je hipici i Nova levica.

That was sort of my contemporaries,

To su bili, takoreći, moji savremenici,

the people I was just slightly older than.

ljudi od kojih sam bio malo stariji.

And my mode is to look at where the interesting flow is

A moj način rada je da gledam u zanimljive tokove događaja,

and then look in the other direction.

a da onda odvratim pogled u drugom smeru.

CA: (Laughs)

KA: (Smeje se)

SB: Partly, I was trained to do that as an army officer,

SB: Delimično sam kao vojni oficir obučen da tako radim,

but partly, it's just a cheap heuristic to find originalities:

no delom je to prosto jeftina heuristika za otkrivanje originalnosti:

don't look where everybody else is looking,

ne gledaj kuda svi ostali gledaju,

look the opposite way.

gledaj u suprotnom smeru.

So the deal with counterculture is, the hippies were very romantic

Kod kontrakulture se radilo o tome da su hipici bili veoma romantični

and kind of against technology,

i nekako protivnici tehnologije,

except very good LSD from Sandoz,

ne računajući veoma dobar LSD od Sandoza,

and the New Left was against technology

a Nova levica je bila protiv tehnologije

because they thought it was a power device.

jer ju je smatrala oruđem moći.

Computers were: do not spindle, fold, or mutilate.

Kompjuteri su bili: neokretni, nesavitljivi, nerasklopljivi.

Fight that.

Suprotstavite se tome.

And so, the Whole Earth Catalog was kind of a counter-counterculture thing

Te je čitav Whole Earth Catalog bio nešto kao stvar kontra-kontrakulture

in the sense that I bought Buckminster Fuller's idea

u smislu da sam prihvatio ideju Bakminstera Fulera

that tools of are of the essence.

da su postojeća oruđa suštinski važna.

Science and engineers basically define the world in interesting ways.

Nauka i inženjeri u suštini određuju svet na zanimljive načine.

If all the politicians disappeared one week,

Ako bi svi političari nestali na nedelju dana

it would be ... a nuisance.

to bi bila... neprijatnost.

But if all the scientists and engineers disappeared one week,

Međutim, ako bi svi naučnici i inženjeri nestali na nedelju dana,

it would be way more than a nuisance.

to bi bilo mnogo više od neprijatnosti.

CA: We still believe that, I think.

KA: Mislim da još uvek verujemo u to.

SB: So focus on that.

SB: Dakle, fokusirajmo se na to.

And then the New Left was talking about power to the people.

A potom je Nova levica govorila o moć narodu.

And people like Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak

A ljudi poput Stiva Džobsa i Stiva Voznjaka

cut that and just said, power to people,

su to skratili i prosto rekli moć svima,

tools that actually work.

oruđa koja zapravo funkcionišu.

And so, where Fuller was saying don't try to change human nature,

Te, dok je Fuler govorio ne pokušavajte da menjate ljudsku prirodu,

people have been trying for a long time and it does not even bend,

ljudi su pokušavali dugo vremena i nije se čak ni povila,

but you can change tools very easily.

no možete veoma lako da menjate oruđa.

So the efficient thing to do if you want to make the world better

Te efikasna stvar, ako želite da poboljšate svet,

is not try to make people behave differently like the New Left was,

nije, kao Nova Levica, da pokušate da navedete ljude da se ponašaju drugačije

but just give them tools that go in the right direction.

već da im date oruđa da bi se kretali u pravom smeru.

That was the Whole Earth Catalog.

To je suština Whole Earth Catalog-a.

CA: And Stewart, the central image -- this is one of the first images,

KA: A, Stjuarte, centralna slika - ovo je jedna od prvih slika,

the first time people had seen Earth from outer space.

prvi put da su ljudi videli Zemlju iz svemira.

That had an impact, too.

To je takođe bilo uticajno.

SB: It was kind of a chance that in the spring of '66,

SB: Bila je to slučajnost da sam u leto '66,

thanks to an LSD experience on a rooftop in San Francisco,

zahvaljujući iskustvu sa LSD-om na krovu u San Francisku,

I got thinking about, again, something that Fuller talked about,

ponovo počeo da razmišljam o nečemu o čemu je Fuler govorio,

that a lot of people assume that the Earth is flat

kako mnogi ljudi pretpostavljaju da je Zemlja ravna

and kind of infinite in terms of its resources,

i na neki način beskonačna u smislu resursa,

but once you really grasp that it's a sphere

ali čim shvatite da se radi o sferi

and that there's only so much of it,

i da je ima tek toliko,

then you start husbanding your resources

onda počnete da štedite resurse

and thinking about it as a finite system.

i razmišljate o njoj kao konačnom sistemu.

"Spaceship Earth" was his metaphor.

"Svemirski brod Zemlja" je bila njegova metafora.

And I wanted that to be the case,

A ja sam želeo da je tako,

but on LSD I was getting higher and higher on my hundred micrograms

ali zbog LSD sam sve više i više lebdeo na svojih stotinu mikrograma

on the roof of San Francisco,

na krovu San Franciska,

and noticed that the downtown buildings which were right in front of me

i primetio sam kako zgrade u centru, koje su bile tačno ispred mene,

were not all parallel, they were sort of fanned out like this.

nisu paralelne, bile su nekako ovako raspršene.

And that's because they are on a curved surface.

A to je zato što su na zakrivljenom tlu.

And if I were even higher, I would see that even more clearly,

A da sam bio na višem položaju, to bi mi bilo još jasnije,

higher than that, more clearly still,

više od toga, još jasnije,

dovoljno visoko i krug bi se zatvorio

higher enough, and it would close,

and you would get the circle of Earth from space.

i dobili biste zemljin krug iz svemira.

And I thought, you know, we've been in space for 10 years --

Pa sam pomislio, znate, u svemiru smo već 10 godina -

at that time, this is '66 --

u to vreme, radi se o '66. -

and the cameras had never looked back.

a kamere se nikad nisu osvrnule.

They'd always been looking out or looking at just parts of the Earth.

Uvek su gledale ka spolja ili su samo gledale delove Zemlje.

And so I said, why haven't we seen a photograph of the whole Earth yet?

Pa sam rekao, zašto još uvek nemamo fotografiju celokupne Zemlje?

And it went around and NASA got it and senators, secretaries got it,

O tome se pročulo, stiglo je do NASA-e i senatora, sekretara

and various people in the Politburo got it,

i raznih ljudi iz Politbiroa,

and it went around and around.

i kružilo je i kružilo.

And within two and a half years,

I za dve i po godine,

about the time the Whole Earth Catalog came out,

u vreme kada je izašao Whole Earth Catalog,

počele su da se pojavljuju ove slike

these images started to appear,

and indeed, they did transform everything.

i zaista su sve preobrazile.

And my idea of hacking civilization

A moja zamisao izmene civilizacije

is that you try to do something lazy and ingenious

je da pokušavate nešto lenjo i genijalno

and just sort of trick the situation.

i prosto nekako prevarite situaciju.

So all of these photographs that you see --

Dakle, sve ove fotografije koje vidite -

and then the march for science last week,

a onda tokom prošlonedeljnog marša za nauku,

they were carrying these Whole Earth banners and so on --

nosili su ove barjake Whole Earth itd. -

I did that with no work.

ja sam to uspeo skrštenih ruku.

I sold those buttons for 25 cents apiece.

Prodao sam tu dugmad 25 centi po komadu.

So, you know, tweaking the system

Dakle, znate, štimovanje sistema

is, I think, not only the most efficient way to make the system go

je, mislim, ne samo najefikasniji način da usmerite sistem

in interesting ways,

u zanimljivom smeru,

but in some ways, the safest way,

već je nekako i najbezbedniji način

because when you try to horse the whole system around in a big way,

jer kad pokušate da izmanipulišete čitav sistem na izrazit način,

you can get into big horsing-around problems,

možete zapasti u velike, zeznute, probleme,

but if you tweak it, it will adjust to the tweak.

ali ako ga štimujete, sam će da se podesi štimu.

CA: So since then, among many other things,

KA: Dakle, otada, između ostalog,

you've been regarded as a leading voice in the environmental movement,

smatraju te vodećim glasom u pokretu očuvanja prirode,

but you are also a counterculturalist,

ali ti si i kontrakulturalista,

and recently, you've been taking on a lot of,

a od nedavno si pod kritikom,

well, you've been declaring

dakle, obznanjuješ

what a lot of environmentalists almost believe are heresies.

nešto što mnogi ekolozi smatraju gotovo jeresima.

I kind of want to explore a couple of those.

Nekako želim da istražim neke od njih.

I mean, tell me about this image here.

Mislim, prčaj mi o ovoj slici ovde.

SB: Ha-ha!

SB: Ha-ha!

That's a National Geographic image

To je slika Nacionalne geografije

of what is called the mammoth steppe,

nečega što se naziva mamutskom stepom,

what the far north, the sub-Arctic and Arctic region, used to look like.

kako su nekada Subarktik i Arktička oblast izgledali.

In fact, the whole world used to look like that.

Zapravo, nekada je čitav svet tako izgledao.

What we find in South Africa and the Serengeti now,

Ono što sad vidimo u Južnoj Africi i Serengetiju,

lots of big animals,

mnoštvo velikih životinja,

was the case in this part of Canada,

bio je slučaj i u ovom delu Kanade,

throughout the US, throughout Eurasia, throughout the world.

širom SAD-a, širom Evroazije, širom sveta.

This was the norm

Ovo je bio standard

and can be again.

i može ponovo da bude.

So in a sense,

Pa je na neki način

my long-term goal at this point is to not only bring back those animals

moj dugoročni cilj trenutno, ne samo da vratimo ove životinje

and the grassland they made,

i njihove pašnjake,

which could be a climate stabilization system over the long run,

što bi moglo da bude dugoročan sistem stabilizacije klime,

but even the mammoths there in the background

ali čak su i mamuti tamo u pozadini

that are part of the story.

deo te priče.

And I think that's probably a 200-year goal.

I mislim da je to verovatno dvestogodišnji cilj.

Maybe in 100, by the end of this century,

Možda za 100, do kraja ovog veka,

we should be able to dial down the extinction rate

trebalo bi da umanjimo stopu izumiranja

to sort of what it's been in the background.

na približnu onoj koja je bila u pozadini.

Bringing back this amount of bio-abundance will take longer,

Vraćanje ove količine biološkog izobilja će da potraje duže,

but it's worth doing.

ali je vredno truda.

CA: We'll come back to the mammoths,

KA: Vratićemo se mamutima,

but explain how we should think of extinctions.

međutim, objasni mi kako bi trebalo da razmišaljmo o izumiranjima.

Obviously, one of the huge concerns right now

Očito, trenutno je velika briga

is that extinction is happening at a faster rate than ever in history.

to što se izumiranje dešava brže nego ikad u istoriji.

That's the meme that's out there.

To je priča koji kruži.

How should we think of it?

Kako da razmišljamo o tome?

SB: The story that's out there

SB: Kruže priče

is that we're in the middle of the Sixth Extinction

da smo u sred Šestog izumiranja

or maybe in the beginning of the Sixth Extinction.

ili možda na početku Šestog izumiranja.

Because we're in the de-extinction business,

Kako smo u poslu poništavanja izumiranja,

the preventing-extinction business with Revive & Restore,

poslu sprečavanja izumiranja sa Revive & Restore,

we started looking at what's actually going on with extinction.

počeli smo da proveravamo šta se zaista dešava sa izumiranjem.

And it turns out, there's a very confused set of data out there

A ispostavlja se da je u ponudi veoma zbunjujući skup podataka

which gets oversimplified

koji se suviše pojednostavljuju

into the narrative of we're becoming ...

u narativ da postajemo...

Here are five mass extinctions that are indicated by the yellow triangles,

Evo pet masovnih izumiranja koja su označena žutim trouglovima,

and we're now next.

a sada smo mi na redu.

The last one there on the far right

Poslednje skroz desno

was the meteor that struck 66 million years ago

je udar meteora pre 66 miliona godina,

and did in the dinosaurs.

a koji je uništio dinosauruse.

And the story is, we're the next meteor.

A priča glasi da smo mi novi meteor.

Well, here's the deal.

Pa, evo o čemu se radi.

I wound up researching this for a paper I wrote,

Zatekao sam se istražujući ovo za naučni rad koji sam pisao

that a mass extinction is when 75 percent of all the species

da je masovno izumiranje kada 75 procenata svih vrsta

in the world go extinct.

u svetu izumre.

Well, there's on the order of five-and-a-half-million species,

Pa, imamo otprilike pet i po miliona vrsta,

of which we've identified one and a half million.

od kojih smo identifikovali jedan i po milion.

Another 14,000 are being identified every year.

Svake godine identifikujemo 14.000 novih.

There's a lot of biology going on out there.

Biologija je u zamahu tu.

Since 1500,

Od 1500. godine

about 500 species have gone extinct,

oko 500 vrsta je izumrlo

and you'll see the term "mass extinction" kind of used in strange ways.

i videćete termin "masovno izumiranje" kako se koristi nekako čudno.

So there was, about a year and a half ago,

Dakle, pre oko godinu i po smo imali

a front-page story by Carl Zimmer in the New York Times,

priču Karla Cimera na naslovnoj strani Njujork Tajmsa:

"Mass Extinction in the Oceans, Broad Studies Show."

"Opsežna studija pokazuje masovno izumiranje u okeanima".

And then you read into the article, and it mentions that since 1500,

A potom počnete da čitate članak, koji pominje da je od 1500. godine

15 species -- one, five -- have gone extinct in the oceans,

15 vrsta - jedan, pet - izumrlo u okeanima

and, oh, by the way, none in the last 50 years.

i to, usput, nijedna u poslednjih 50 godina.

And you read further into the story, and it's saying,

Čitate dalje priču, a ona kaže

the horrifying thing that's going on

da se dešava nešto zastrašujuće

is that the fisheries are so overfishing the wild fishes,

kako je ulov divlje ribe u ribnjacima toliki

that it is taking down the fish populations in the oceans

da to uništava riblju populaciju u okeanima

by 38 percent.

za 38 procenata.

That's the serious thing.

To je nešto ozbiljno.

None of those species are probably going to go extinct.

Nijedna od tih vrsta verovatno neće izumreti.

So you've just put, that headline writer

Pa ste prosto stavili, autor naslova

put a panic button

je stavio dugme za paniku

on the top of the story.

iznad priče.

It's clickbait kind of stuff,

Nalik mamcima za klikove,

but it's basically saying, "Oh my God, start panicking,

ali u suštini govore: "Moj bože, počnite da paničite,

we're going to lose all the species in the oceans."

izgubićemo sve vrste u okeanima."

Nothing like that is in prospect.

Bilo šta slično tome nije na vidiku.

And in fact, what I then started looking into in a little more detail,

I, zapravo, tada sam počeo podrobnije da ispitujem,

the Red List shows about 23,000 species that are considered threatened

Crvena lista pokazuje oko 23.000 vrsta koje se smatraju ugroženim

at one level or another,

u većoj ili manjoj meri,

coming from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the IUCN.

prema Međunarodnoj uniji za očuvanje prirode, IUCN.

And Nature Magazine had a piece surveying the loss of wildlife,

A časopis "Nejčer" je imao članak koji je istraživao gubitak divljeg sveta,

and it said,

i rekli su:

"If all of those 23,000 went extinct

"Ako svih ovih 23.000 vrsta izumru

in the next century or so,

u narednom veku ili slično,

and that rate of extinction carried on for more centuries and millennia,

i ako se ta stopa nastavi više vekova i milenijuma,

then we might be at the beginning of a sixth extinction.

onda bismo možda mogli da budemo na početku šestog izumiranja.

So the exaggeration is way out of hand.

Dakle, preterivanje se otrglo kontroli.

But environmentalists always exaggerate.

Međutim, ekolozi uvek preteruju.

That's a problem.

To je problem.

CA: I mean, they probably feel a moral responsibility to,

KA: Mislim, verovatno zato što osećaju moralnu odgovornost

because they care so much about the thing that they are looking at,

jer mnogo brinu oko toga čime se bave

and unless you bang the drum for it, maybe no one listens.

i ako ne razglase na sva zvona, možda niko neće slušati.

SB: Every time somebody says moral this or moral that --

SB: Svaki put kad neko kaže moralno je ovo ili ono -

"moral hazard," "precautionary principle" --

"moralna opasnost" "princip predostrožnosti" -

these are terms that are used to basically say no to things.

to su termini koji se koriste u suštini za zabranu stvari.

CA: So the problem isn't so much fish extinction, animal extinction,

KA: Dakle, problem nije toliko u izumiranju riba, životinja,

it's fish flourishing, animal flourishing,

već u bujanju riba, bujanju životinja,

that we're crowding them to some extent?

da ih u određenoj meri pretrpavamo?

SB: Yeah, and I think we are crowding, and there is losses going on.

SB: Da, mislim da ih pretrpavamo i dolazi do gubitaka.

The major losses are caused by agriculture,

Najveće gubitke uzrokuje zemljoradnja,

and so anything that improves agriculture and basically makes it more condensed,

pa sve što unapređuje zemljoradnju i zbog čega je ona zgusnutija,

more highly productive,

produktvnija,

including GMOs, please,

uključujući GMO, moliću lepo,

but even if you want to do vertical farms in town,

ali čak iako želite vertikalnu zemljoradnju u gradu,

including inside farms,

kao i farme u zatvorenom,

all the things that have been learned about how to grow pot in basements,

sve što smo naučili o uzgoju marihuane u podrumima

is now being applied to growing vegetables inside containers --

trenutno se primenjuje na uzgoj povrća u saksijama -

that's great, that's all good stuff,

to je sjajno, to su sve sjajne stvari

because land sparing is the main thing we can do for nature.

jer je ušteda zemljišta osnovno što možemo da uradimo za prirodu.

People moving to cities is good.

Seoba ljudi u gradove je dobra.

Making agriculture less of a destruction of the landscape is good.

Umanjiti štetu koju zemljoradnja nanosi pejzažima je dobro.

CA: There people talking about bringing back species, rewilding ...

KA: Ljudi pričaju o vraćanju vrsta, obnovi divljeg sveta...

Well, first of all, rewilding species: What's the story with these guys?

Pa, pre svega, obnova divljeg sveta: šta je fora s tim ljudima?

SB: Ha-ha! Wolves.

SB: Ha-ha! Vukovi.

Europe, connecting to the previous point,

Evropa, da se nadovežem na prethodnu priču,

we're now at probably peak farmland,

trenutno smo na vrhuncu količine obradive zemlje,

and, by the way, in terms of population,

i, usput, u smislu populacije

we are already at peak children being alive.

već smo na vrhuncu broja žive dece.

Henceforth, there will be fewer and fewer children.

Od sad će da bude sve manje dece.

We are in the last doubling of human population,

Trenutno smo u poslednjem udvostručavanju ljudske populacije

and it will get to nine, maybe nine and a half billion,

i stići će do devet, možda devet i po milijardi,

and then start not just leveling off, but probably going down.

a onda će početi, ne samo da se uravnotežuje, već da opada.

Likewise, farmland has now peaked,

Slično, trenutno je zemljoradnja na vrhuncu,

and one of the ways that plays out in Europe

a jedan od načina na koje se to ispoljava u Evropi

is there's a lot of abandoned farmland now,

je što trenutno ima mnogo napuštene obradive zemlje,

which immediately reforests.

što se istog trena nanovo pošumljava.

They don't do wildlife corridors in Europe.

U Evropi ne grade koridore za divlje životinje.

They don't need to, because so many of these farms are connected

Nemaju potrebe jer je toliko tih farmi povezano

that they've made reforested wildlife corridors,

da su obrazovale pošumljene koridore za divlje životinje,

that the wolves are coming back, in this case, to Spain.

te se vukovi vraćaju, u ovom slučaju, u Španiju.

They've gotten all the way to the Netherlands.

Stigli su skroz do Holandije.

There's bears coming back. There's lynx coming back.

Vraćaju se medvedi. Vraća se ris.

There's the European jackal. I had no idea such a thing existed.

Postoji evropski šakal. Nisam ni znao da takvo šta postoji.

They're coming back from Italy to the rest of Europe.

Stižu iz Italije u ostatak Evrope.

And unlike here, these are all predators, which is kind of interesting.

I ne kao ovde, ovo su sve grabljivice, što je nakako zanimljivo.

They are being welcomed by Europeans. They've been missed.

Evropljani im žele dobrodošlicu. Nedostajali su im.

CA: And counterintuitively, when you bring back the predators,

KA: I nasuprot intuiciji kada vratite grabljivice,

it actually increases rather than reduces

to zapravo često uvećava, a ne smanjuje

the diversity of the underlying ecosystem often.

raznovrsnost osnovnog ekosistema.

SB: Yeah, generally predators and large animals --

SB: Da, uopšteno grabljivice i velike životinje -

large animals and large animals with sharp teeth and claws --

velike životinje i velike životinje sa oštrim zubima i kandžama -

are turning out to be highly important for a really rich ecosystem.

ispostavlja se da su veoma važne za istinski bogat ekosistem.

CA: Which maybe brings us to this rather more dramatic rewilding project

KA: To nas dovodi do tog krajnje dramatičnog projekta obnove divljine

that you've got yourself involved in.

u koji si se uključio.

Why would someone want to bring back these terrifying woolly mammoths?

Zašto bi neko želio da vrati te zastrašujuće runaste mamute?

SB: Hmm. Asian elephants are the closest relative

SB: Hm. Azijski slonovi su najbliži rođaci

to the woolly mammoth,

runastom mamutu

and they're about the same size, genetically very close.

i otprilike su iste veličine, genetski su veoma bliski.

They diverged quite recently in evolutionary history.

Gotovo nedavno su se razišli u evolutivnoj istoriji.

The Asian elephants are closer to woolly mammoths

Azijski slonovi su bliži runastim mamutima

than they are to African elephants,

nego afričkim slonovima,

but they're close enough to African elephants

ali su dovoljno bliski afričkim slonovima

that they have successfully hybridized.

da su se uspešno ukrstili.

So we're working with George Church at Harvard,

Pa sarađujemo sa Džordžom Čurčom u Harvardu,

who has already moved the genes for four major traits

koji je već preneo gene za četiri osnovne osobine

from the now well-preserved, well-studied genome of the woolly mammoth,

od trenutno dobro očuvanog, dobro izučenog genoma runastog mamuta,

thanks to so-called "ancient DNA analysis."

zahvaljujući takozvanoj "drevnoj DNK analizi".

And in the lab, he has moved those genes into living Asian elephant cell lines,

A u laboratoriji je preneo te gene u ćelijske trake živog azijskog slona,

where they're taking up their proper place thanks to CRISPR.

gde su zauzele odgovarajuće mesto zahvaljujući CRISPR.

I mean, they're not shooting the genes in like you did with genetic engineering.

Mislim, ne ubacujete gene kao u slučaju genetskog inženjeringa.

Now with CRISPR you're editing, basically, one allele,

Sad sa CRISPR redigujete, u suštini, jedan alel

and replacing it in the place of another allele.

i stavljate ga na mesto drugog alela.

So you're now getting basically Asian elephant germline cells

Dakle, sada u suštini dobijate sukcesiju ćelijskih zametaka azijskog slona

that are effectively in terms of the traits that you're going for

koje su efikasne u smislu ciljnih osobina

to be comfortable in the Arctic,

koje su poželjne na Arktiku,

you're getting them in there.

tu dolazite do njih.

So we go through the process

Pa, prolazimo kroz proces

of getting that through a surrogate mother,

dobijanja toga preko surogat majke,

an Asian elephant mother.

majke azijskog slona.

You can get a proxy, as it's being called by conservation biologists,

Možete da dobijete zastupnika, kako to nazivaju biolozi konzervatori,

of the woolly mammoth,

runastog mamuta,

that is effectively a hairy, curly-trunked, Asian elephant

to je u suštini dlakavi, uvijene surle azijski slon

that is perfectly comfortable in the sub-Arctic.

kome je savršeno ugodno u oblasti subarktika.

Now, it's the case, so many people say,

Sad, dšava se da mnogi ljudi kažu:

"Well, how are you going to get them there?

"Pa, kako ćete da ih smestite tamo?

And Asian elephants, they don't like snow, right?"

Azijski slonovi ne vole sneg, zar ne?"

Well, it turns out, they do like snow.

Pa, ispostavlja se da vole sneg.

There's some in an Ontario zoo

Neki iz zoološkog vrta u Ontariju

that have made snowballs bigger than people.

su pravili grudve snega veće od ljudi.

They just love -- you know, with a trunk, you can start a little thing,

Prosto vole - znate, surlama, počnete s malom loptom,

roll it and make it bigger.

kotrljate je i povećate.

And then people say,

A onda ljudi kažu:

"Yeah, but it's 22 months of gestation.

"Da, ali radi se o 22 meseca trudnoće.

This kind of cross-species cloning is tricky business, anyway.

Ovaj vid kloniranja ukrštenh vrsta je zeznut posao, u svakom slučaju.

Are you going to lose some of the surrogate Asian elephant mothers?"

Hoćete li da izgubite neke od azijskih slonica surogat majki?"

And then George Church says, "That's all right.

A onda Džordž Čurč kaže: "Sve je u redu.

We'll do an artificial uterus and grow them that way."

Napravićemo veštačku matericu i tako ih uzgajati."

Then people say, "Yeah, next century, maybe,"

A onda ljudi kažu: "Da, možda u sledećem veku",

except the news came out this week in Nature

samo što je prošle nedelje objavljeno u "Nejčeru"

that there's now an artificial uterus in which they've grown a lamb

da trenutno imamo veštačku matericu u kojoj su uzgojili jagnje

to four weeks.

do četvrte nedelje.

That's halfway through its gestation period.

To je pola perioda trudnoće.

So this stuff is moving right along.

Dakle, ovo napreduje nama na ruku.

CA: But why should we want a world where --

KA: Ali zašto bismo želeli svet u kome -

Picture a world where there are thousands of these things

zamislite svet u kome na hiljade ovih stvorenja

thundering across Siberia.

tutnja Sibirom.

Is that a better world?

Da li je to bolji svet?

SB: Potentially. It's --

SB: Potencijalno. To je -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

There's three groups, basically, working on the woolly mammoth seriously:

Imamo tri grupe, u suštini, koje ozbiljno rade na runastom mamutu:

Revive & Restore, we're kind of in the middle;

Revive & Restore, mi smo nekako u sredini;

George Church and the group at Harvard that are doing the genetics in the lab;

Džordž Čurč i grupa na Harvardu koji se bave genetikom u laboratoriji;

and then there's an amazing old scientist named Zimov

i potom imamo sjajnog starog naučnika po imenu Zimov

who works in northern Siberia,

koji radi u severnom Sibiru,

and his son Nikita, who has bought into the system,

kao i njegovog sina Nikitu koji su prihvatili sistem,

and they are, Sergey and Nikita Zimov have been, for 25 years,

a oni, Sergej i Nikita Zimov, već 25 godina

creating what they call "Pleistocene Park,"

stvaraju nešto što nazivaju "Parkom iz doba Pleistocena",

which is a place in a really tough part of Siberia that is pure tundra.

a to je mesto u zaista nepristupačnom delu Sibira, koje je čista tundra.

And the research that's been done shows

A obavljena istraživanja su pokazala

that there's probably one one-hundredth of the animals on the landscape there

da na tom pejzažu živi jedna stotina životinja

that there used to be.

kojih je nekad bilo.

Kao na slici od ranije, videli smo mnoštvo životinja.

Like that earlier image, we saw lots of animals.

Now there's almost none.

Sada ih skoro uopšte nema.

The tundra is mostly moss, and then there's the boreal forest.

Tundra se sastoji uglavnom od mahovine i još je tu severna šuma.

And that's the way it is, folks. There's just a few animals there.

I tako stvari stoje, narode. Ima svega nekolko životinja tu.

So they brought in a lot of grazing animals:

Pa su doveli mnogo životinja koje pasu:

musk ox, Yakutian horses, they're bringing in some bison,

muflona, jakutskog konja, dovode nešto bizona,

they're bringing in some more now,

trenutno ih dovode još više

and put them in at the density that they used to be.

i vraćaju ih u razmeri u kojoj ih je nekad bilo.

And grasslands are made by grazers.

A pašnjake stvaraju životinje koje pasu.

So these animals are there, grazing away,

Pa ove životinje tu pasu

and they're doing a couple of things.

i rade nekoliko stvari.

First of all, they're turning the tundra, the moss, back into grassland.

Pre svega, pretvaraju tundru, mahovinu, nazad u pašnjak.

Grassland fixes carbon.

Pašnjaci pospremaju ugljenik.

Tundra, in a warming world, is thawing and releasing a lot of carbon dioxide

Tundra, u svetu koji se zagrejava, kopni i oslobađa mnogo ugljen-dioksida

and also methane.

kao i metana.

So already in their little 25 square miles,

Pa oni već u svojih skromnih 65 kilometara kvadratnh

they're doing a climate stabilization thing.

postižu stabilizaciju klime.

Part of that story, though,

Deo te priče, pak,

is that the boreal forest is very absorbent to sunlight,

je da severna šuma dobro apsorbuje sunčevu svetlost,

even in the winter when snow is on the ground.

čak i zimi kad je sneg na tlu.

And the way the mammoth steppe,

A način na koji mamutska stepa,

which used to wrap all the way around the North Pole --

koja je nekad opasavala čitav Severni pol -

there's a lot of landmass around the North Pole --

ima mnogo zemljišne mase oko Severnog pola -

that was all this grassland.

sve su to bili pašnjaci.

And the steppe was magnificent,

A stepa je bila veličanstvena,

probably one of the most productive biomes in the world,

verovatno jedan od najproduktivnijih bioma na svetu,

the biggest biome in the world.

najveći biom na svetu.

The forest part of it, right now, Sergey Zimov and Nikita

Trenutno, deo pod šumom, Sergej Zimov i Nikita

go out with this old military tank they got for nothing,

izlaze sa ovim starim vojnim tenkom koji su dobili za džabe,

and they knock down the trees.

i obaraju drveće.

And that's a bore, and it's tiresome,

A to je dosadno i iscrpljujuće,

and as Sergey says, "... and they make no dung!"

i kao što Sergej kaže: "... tenkovi ne prave izmet!"

which, by the way, these big animals do, including mammoths.

a to, usput, rade ove velike životinje, uključujući i mamute.

So mammoths become what conservation biologists call

Pa mamuti zbog toga postaju nešto što biolozi očuvanja nazivaju

an umbrella species.

temeljnom vrstom.

It's an exciting animal -- pandas in China or wherever --

To je uzbudljiva životinja - pande u Kini ili bilo gde -

that the excitement that goes on of making life good for that animal

da je uzbuđenje oko obezebeđivanja kvalitetnog života za tu životinju

is making a habitat, an ecosystem,

uzrokuje stanište, ekosistem,

which is good for a whole lot of creatures and plants,

koji je dobar za čitavu hrpu stvorenja i biljaka,

and it ideally gets to the point of being self-managing,

i u idealnom slučaju stiže se do tačke gde je on samoodržavajući,

where the conservation biologists can back off and say,

gde biolozi očuvanja mogu da odstupe i kažu:

"All we have to do is keep out the destructive invasives,

"Sve što je potrebno je da držimo podalje destruktivne invazivne vrste

and this thing can just cook."

i ovo prosto može da se krčka."

CA: So there's many other species that you're dreaming of de-extincting

KA: Dakle, postoji još mnogo vrsta koje sanjaš da vratiš u život

at some point,

u nekoj tački,

but I think what I'd actually like to move on to

ali zapravo želim da pređemo

is this idea you talked about how mammoths might help

na ideju o kojoj si govorio o tome kako mamuti mogu da pomognu

green Siberia in a sense,

u ozelenjavanju Sibira na neki način

or at least, I'm not talking about tropical rainforest,

ili bar, ne govorim o tropskoj kišnoj šumi,

but this question of greening the planet you've thought about a lot.

ali pitanje ozelenjavanja planete o kom si mnogo razmišljao.

And the traditional story is

A tradicionalna priča glasi

that deforestation is one of the most awful curses

da je uništavanje šuma najužasnija kletva

of modern times,

savremenog sveta

and that it's a huge contributor to climate change.

i da to daje ogroman doprinos klimatskim promenama.

And then you went and sent me this graph here, or this map.

A onda si mi ti poslao ovaj grafikon ovde, ovu mapu.

What is this map?

Šta je ova mapa?

SB: Global greening.

SB: Globalno zelenilo.

The thing to do with any narrative that you get from headlines

Kod svakog narativa koji dobijate iz naslova

and from short news stories

i kratkih vesti

is to look for what else is going on,

radi se o tome da proverite šta se još dešava

and look for what Marc Andreessen calls "narrative violation."

i da proverite ono što Mark Andrisen naziva "kršenjem narativa".

So the narrative -- and Al Gore is master of putting it out there --

Dakle, narativ - a Al Gor je majstor u njegovom kreiranju -

is that there's this civilization-threatening

glasi da imamo po civilizaciju opasne

climate change coming on very rapidly.

klimatkse promene koje stižu veoma brzo.

We have to cease all extra production of greenhouse gases, especially CO2,

Moramo prekinuti svu suvišnu proizvodnju gasova staklene bašte, naročito CO2,

as soon as possible,

što pre,

otherwise, we're in deep, deep trouble.

u suprotnom, u ozbiljnoj, ozbiljnoj smo nevolji.

All of that is true, but it's not the whole story,

Sve je to tačno, ali nije potpuna priča,

and the whole story is more interesting than these fragmentary stories.

a potpuna priča je daleko zanimljivija od tih fragmentarnih priča.

Plants love CO2.

Biljke vole CO2.

What plants are made of is CO2 plus water via sunshine.

Biljke su sačinjene od CO2 plus voda putem sunčeve svetlosti.

And so in many greenhouses, industrialized greenhouses,

Pa u mnogim staklenicima, industrijskim staklenicima,

they add CO2 because the plants turn that into plant matter.

dodaju CO2 jer biljke to pretvaraju i biljnu tvar.

So the studies have been done with satellites and other things,

Pa su urađena istraživanja satelitima i drugim stvarima,

and what you're seeing here is a graph of, over the last 33 years or so,

a ovde vidite grafikon iz protekle otprilike 33 godine,

there's 14 percent more leaf action going on.

imamo 14 procenata više lišća.

There's that much more biomass.

Toliko više imamo biomase.

Toliko više imamo onoga što ekolozi nazivaju "primarnom proizvodnjom."

There's that much more what ecologists call "primary production."

There's that much more life happening,

Toliko više se dešava života

thanks to climate change,

zbog klimatskih promena,

thanks to all of our goddam coal plants.

zahvaljujući svim našim prokletim fabrikama na ugalj.

So -- whoa, what's going on here?

Dakle - opa, šta se dešava ovde?

By the way, crop production goes up with this.

Usput, s ovim skače proizvodnja useva.

This is a partial counter

To je parcijalna suprotnost

to the increase of CO2,

povećanju CO2

because there's that much more plant that is sucking it down

jer ima utoliko više biljaka koje ga usisavaju

into plant matter.

u biljnu tvar.

Some of that then decays and goes right back up,

Nešto od toga potom trune i vraća se nazad,

but some of it is going down into roots

ali nešto od toga odlazi u korenje

and going into the soil and staying there.

i odlazi u tlo i ostaje tu.

So these counter things are part of what you need to bear in mind,

Dakle ove kontra stvari su deo koji morate da imate na umu,

and the deeper story is

a podrobnija priča glasi

that thinking about and dealing with and engineering climate

da razmišljanje i bavljenje i klimatski inženjering

is a pretty complex process.

su prilično složeni procesi.

It's like medicine.

To je poput medicine.

You're always, again, tweaking around with the system

Uvek, opet, štimujete sistem

to see what makes an improvement.

da vidite šta uzrokuje napredak.

Then you do more of that, see it's still getting better,

Onda se bavite više time, vidite da i dalje napreduje,

then -- oop! -- that's enough, back off half a turn.

potom - op! - to je dovoljno udaljite se poluokretom.

CA: But might some people say, "Not all green is created equal."

KA: Ali neki ljudi će reći "Nije sve zelenilo ravnopravno."

Possibly what we're doing is trading off the magnificence of the rainforest

Moguće da krčmimo veličanstvene kišne šume

and all that diversity

i svu tu raznovrsnost

for, I don't know, green pond scum or grass or something like that.

za, pojma nemam, zelene jezerske alge ili travu ili nešto slično.

SB: Baš u ovom istražvanju, ispostavilo se da se svi oblici biljaka umnožavaju,

SB: In this particular study, it turns out every form of plant is increasing.

Now, what's interestingly left out of this study

Sad, zanimljivo je ono što je izostavljeno u njemu

is what the hell is going on in the oceans.

a to je šta se, dovraga, dešava u okeanima.

Primary production in the oceans,

Glavna proizvodnja u okeanima,

the biota of the oceans, mostly microbial,

biom okeana, uglavnom mikrobi,

what they're up to is probably the most important thing.

šta se dešava s njima je verovatno najvažnije od svega.

They're the ones that create the atmosphere

Oni su ti koji stvaraju atmosferu

that we're happily breathing,

koju s uživanjem udišemo,

and they're not part of this study.

a oni nisu deo ovog istraživanja.

This is one of the things James Lovelock has been insisting;

To je nešto na čemu je Džejms Lavlok insistirao;

basically, our knowledge of the oceans, especially of ocean life,

u suštini, naše poznavanje okeana, naročito okeanskog života

is fundamentally vapor, in this sense.

je suštinski maglovito, u ovom smislu.

So we're in the process of finding out

Pa smo u procesu otkrivanja

by inadvertent bad geoengineering of too much CO2 in the atmosphere,

kako nenamerno loš geoinženjering prevelike količine CO2 u atmosferi,

finding out, what is the ocean doing with that?

otkrivamo šta okean radi s tim?

Well, the ocean, with the extra heat,

Pa, okean, zbog dodatne toplote

is swelling up.

otiče.

That's most of where we're getting the sea level rise,

Zbog toga najviše i imamo porast nivoa mora,

and there's a lot more coming with more global warming.

a još više nam toga sledi s više globalnog zagrevanja.

We're getting terrible harm to some of the coral reefs,

Nanosimo užasnu štetu nekim koralnim grebenima,

like off of Australia.

poput onih blizu Australije.

The great reef there is just a lot of bleaching from overheating.

Veliki greben odatle prosto se previše izbeljuje od pregrejavanja.

And this is why I and Danny Hillis, in our previous session on the main stage,

A zbog toga smo Deni Hilis i ja, iz naše prethodne sesije na glavnoj sceni,

was saying, "Look, geoengineering is worth experimenting with enough

govorili: "Pazite, geoinženjering je nešto s čim vredi eksperimentisati,

to see that it works,

videti da li funkcioniše,

to see if we can buy time in the warming aspect of all of this,

videti da li možemo da kupimo vreme u zagrevajućem aspektu svega ovoga,

tweak the system with small but usable research,

štimujemo sistem malim, ali upotrebljivim istraživanjem,

and then see if we should do more than tweak.

a potom da vidimo da li je potrebno više od štimovanja.

CA: OK, so this is what we're going to talk about

KA: U redu, dakle, o ovome ćemo da razgovaramo

for the last few minutes here

poslednjih nekoliko minuta

because it's such an important discussion.

jer je to veoma važna rasprava.

First of all, this book was just published by Yuval Harari.

Pre svega, ova knjiga Juvala Hararija je upravo objavljena.

He's basically saying the next evolution of humans is to become as gods.

On u suštini kaže da je naredna evolucija ljudi ona u kojoj postaju poput bogova.

I think he --

Mislim da on -

SB: Now, you've talked to him. And you've probably finished the book.

SB: Sad, razgovarao si s njim. I verovatno si pročitao knjigu.

I haven't finished it yet.

Ja nisam još uvek.

Where does he come out on --

Kako on vidi -

CA: I mean, it's a pretty radical view.

KA: Mislim, radi se o prilično radikalnom viđenju.

He thinks that we will completely remake ourselves

Smatra kako ćemo u potpunosti da se preobrazimo

using data, using bioengineering,

upotrebom podataka, bioinženjeringa,

to become completely new creatures

da ćemo da postanemo potpuno nova bića

that have, kind of, superpowers,

koja imaju, neki vid, supermoći

and that there will be huge inequality.

i da ćemo da imamo ogromnu nejednakost.

But we're about to write a very radical, brand-new chapter of history.

Ali da smo na putu da ispišemo veoma radikalno, skroz novo poglavlje istorije.

That's what he believes.

On veruje u to.

SB: Is he nervous about that? I forget.

SB: Je li nervozan zbog toga? Zaboravio sam.

CA: He's nervous about it,

KA: Nervozan je zbog toga,

but I think he also likes provoking people.

ali mislim da takođe voli da izaziva ljude.

SB: Are you nervous about that?

SB: Da li si ti nervozan zbog toga?

CA: I'm nervous about that.

KA: Nervozan sam zbog toga.

But, you know, with so much at TED, I'm excited and nervous.

Međutim, znaš, zbog toliko toga na TED-u, ja sam i uzbuđen i nervozan.

And the optimist in me is trying hard to lean towards

A optimista u meni daje sve od sebe da naginje ka:

"This is awesome and really exciting,"

"Ovo je fantastično i veoma uzbudljivo",

while the sort of responsible part of me is saying,

dok na neki način, odgovorni deo mene govori:

"But, uh, maybe we should be a little bit careful

"Ali, uh, možda bi trebalo da budemo pažljiviji

as to how we think of it."

oko toga kako mislimo o tome."

SB: That's your secret sauce, isn't it, for TED?

SB: To je vaš tajni sastojak, zar ne, za TED?

Staying nervous and excited.

Ostati nervozan i uzbuđen.

CA: It's also the recipe for being a little bit schizophrenic.

KA: Takođe je i recept za blago stanje šizofrenije.

But he didn't quote you.

Ali Harari te nije citirao.

What I thought was an astonishing statement that you made

Nešto što smatram tvojom zapanjujućom izjavom

right back in the original Whole Earth Catalog,

baš iz prvobitnog Whole Earth Catalog-a,

you ended it with this powerful phrase:

zatvorio si ga ovom snažnom frazom:

"We are as gods, and might as well get good at it."

"Mi smo poput bogova, i bolje da postanemo dobri u tome."

And then more recently, you've upgraded that statement.

A potom si nedavno nadogradio ovu izjavu.

I want you talk about this philosophy.

Želim da govoriš o ovoj filozofiji.

SB: Well, one of the things I'm learning is that documentation

SB: Pa, nešto što učim je da je dokumentovanje

is better than memory -- by far.

bolje od pamćenja - daleko bolje.

And one of the things I've learned from somebody --

A nešto što sam naučio od nekoga -

I actually got on Twitter.

zapravo sa Tvitera.

It changed my life -- it hasn't forgiven me yet!

Promenilo mi je život - neki mi još uvek nisu oprostili.

And I took ownership of this phrase when somebody quoted it,

I prisvojio sam tu frazu kad ju je neko citirao,

and somebody else said,

a neko drugi je rekao:

"Oh by the way, that isn't what you originally wrote

"Ah, usupt, to nije nešto što si prvobitno napisao

in that first 1968 Whole Earth Catalog.

u prvom Whole Earth Catalog-u iz 1968.

You wrote, 'We are as gods and might as well get used to it.'"

Napisao si: 'Poput bogova smo, i bolje da se naviknemo na to.'"

I'd forgotten that entirely.

Potpuno sam to zaboravio.

The stories -- these goddam stories -- the stories we tell ourselves

Priče - proklete priče - priče koje pričamo sebi

become lies over time.

vremenom postaju laži.

So, documentation helps cut through that.

Pa dokumentovanje pomaže da se to raščisti.

It did move on to "We are as gods and might as well get good at it,"

Zaista je prešlo u: "Kao bogovi smo i bolje da postanemo dobri u tome",

and that was the Whole Earth Catalog.

a to je iz Whole Earth Catalog-a.

Do vremena kad sam radio na knjizi naslovljenoj "Disciplina čitave Zemlje:

By the time I was doing a book called "Whole Earth Discipline:

An Ecopragmatist Manifesto,"

Manifest ekopragmatiste",

and in light of climate change, basically saying that we are as gods

i u svetlu klimatskih promena, u suštini sam govorio da smo kao bogovi

and have to get good at it.

i da moramo postati dobri u tome.

CA: We are as gods and have to get good at it.

KA: Kao bogovi smo i moramo postati dobri u tome.

So talk about that, because the psychological reaction

Dakle, pričaj o tome jer je psihološka reakcija

from so many people as soon as you talk about geoengineering

mnogih čim progovoriš o geoinženjeringu

is that the last thing they believe is that humans should be gods --

ta da je poslednje u šta veruju to da bi ljudi trebalo da budu bogovi -

some of them for religious reasons,

neki iz religijskih razloga,

but most just for humility reasons,

ali mnogi zbog skromnosti,

that the systems are too complex,

da su sistemi suviše složeni,

we should not be dabbling that way.

da ne bi trebalo da se petljamo oko toga.

SB: Well, this is the Greek narrative about hubris.

SB: Pa, to je grčki narativ u vezi sa hubrisom.

And once you start getting really sure of yourself,

A čim postanete zaista samouvereni,

you wind up sleeping with your mother.

završite u krevetu s majkom.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

CA: I did not expect you would say that.

KA: Nisam očekivao da ćeš to reći.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

SB: That's the Oedipus story.

SB: To je priča o Edipu.

Hubris is a really important cautionary tale to always have at hand.

Hubris je zaista važna poučna priča koju bi uvek trebalo imati pri ruci.

One of the guidelines I've kept for myself is:

Jedna od smernica koju čuvam za sebe glasi:

every day I ask myself how many things I am dead wrong about.

svaki dan pitam sebe u vezi koliko stvari sam potpuno u krivu.

And I'm a scientist by training

A ja sam obučeni naučnik,

and getting to work with scientists these days,

a raditi s naučnicima ovih dana,

which is pure joy.

to je čisti užitak.

Science is organized skepticism.

Nauka je organizovani skepticizam.

So you're always insisting

Dakle, uvek insistirate

that even when something looks pretty good,

da čak i kad nešto izgleda prilično dobro,

you maintain a full set of not only suspicions

zadržavate čitav skup ne samo sumnji

about whether it's as good as it looks,

o tome da li je to dobro koliko se čini,

but: What else is going on?

već: šta se još dešava?

So this "What else is going?" on query,

Dakle, upit: "Šta se još dešava?"

I think, is how you get away from fake news.

mislim da je način da izbegnete lažne vesti.

It's not necessarily real news,

Ne radi se nužno o stvarnim vestima,

but it's welcomely more complex news

već se radi o poželjno složenijim vestima

that you're trying to take on.

koje pokušavate da usvojite.

CA: But coming back to the application of this just for the environment:

KA: No, vraćajući se na primenu ovoga samo na okolinu:

it seems like the philosophy of this is that, whether we like it or not,

čini se da je filozofija ovoga ta da, svidelo nam se ili ne,

we are already dominating so many aspects of what happens on planets,

već dominiramo tolikim aspektima toga šta se dešava na planeti,

and we're doing it unintentionally,

a radimo to nenamerno,

so we really should start doing it intentionally.

dakle, zaista bi trebalo da počnemo da to radimo namerno.

What would it look like to start getting good at being a god?

Kako bi izgledalo započeti biti dobar kao bog?

How should we start doing that?

Kako da započnemo s tim?

Are there small-scale experiments or systems we can nudge and play with?

Da li postoje eksperimenti manjih razmera ili sistemi za poguravanje i igru?

How on earth do we think about it?

Kako, zaboga, da razmišljamo o tome?

SB: The mentor that sort of freed me

SB: Mentor koji me je da kažem oslobodio

from total allegiance to Buckminster Fuller

od potpune lojalnosti Bakminsteru Fuleru

was Gregory Bateson.

je bio Gregori Bejtson.

And Gregory Bateson was an epistemologist and anthropologist and biologist

A Gregori Bejtson je bio epistemolog i antropolog i biolog

and psychologist and many other things,

i psiholog i svašta nešto još,

and he looked at how systems basically look at themselves.

a posmatrao je kako sistemi u suštini posmatraju sebe.

And that is, I think, part of how you want to always be looking at things.

A to je, verujem, delimično kako uvek želite da posmatrate stvari.

And what I like about David Keith's approach to geoengineering

A kod Dejvid Kitovog pristupa geoinženjeringu mi se sviđa

is you don't just haul off and do it.

to što se prosto ne zaputite i uradite to.

David Keith's approach --

Pristup Dejvida Kita -

and this is what Danny Hillis was talking about earlier --

a to je nešto o čemu je Deni Hilis govorio ranije -

is that you do it really, really incrementally,

je da to radite zaista, zaista postepeno,

you do some stuff to tweak the system, see how it responds,

radite nešto da štimujete sistem, vidite kako reaguje,

that tells you something about the system.

to vam saopšti nešto o sistemu.

That's responding to the fact that people say, quite rightly,

To odgovara činjenici da ljudi s pravom kažu:

"What are we talking about here?

"O čemu govorimo ovde?

We don't understand how the climate system works.

Ne razumemo kako klimatski sistem funkcioniše.

You can't engineer a system you don't understand."

Ne možete osmisliti sistem koji ne razumete."

And David says, "Well, that certainly applies to the human body,

A Dejvid kaže: "Pa, to se izvesno odnosi na ljudsko telo,

and yet medicine goes ahead, and we're kind of glad that it has."

pa ipak medicina napreduje, i nama je nekako drago da je tako."

The way you engineer a system that is so large and complex

Način na koji osmišljavate sistem koji je tako velik i složen

that you can't completely understand it

a koji ne možete u potpunosti da razumete

is you tweak it,

je da ga štimujete,

and this is kind of an anti-hubristic approach.

a to je nekako antihubristički pristup.

This is: try a little bit here,

Radi se o: probaj malo ovde,

back the hell off if it's an issue,

povuci se, dovraga, ako je problematično,

expand it if it seems to go OK,

proširi ako se čini da je u redu,

meanwhile, have other paths going forward.

u međuvremenu, nađi druge staze da ideš napred.

This is the whole argument for diversity and dialogue and all these other things

To je čitav argument za raznolikost i dijalog i sve te druge stvari

and the things we were hearing about earlier with Sebastian [Thrun].

i stvari o kojima smo ranije slušali od Sebastijana Truna.

So the non-hubristic approach is looking for social license,

Dakle, nehubristički pristup traga za društvenom dozvolom,

which is a terminology that I think is a good one,

a to je terminologija koja je, mislim, dobra,

of including society enough

za uključivanje društva u dovoljnoj meri

in these interesting, problematic, deep issues

u ova zanimljiva, problematična, duboka pitanja

that they get to have a pretty good idea

da oni mogu da imaju veoma dobru zamisao

and have people that they trust paying close attention

i da imaju ljude kojima veruju da obrate strogu pažnju

to the sequence of experiments as it's going forward,

na delove eksperimenata kako budu napredovali,

the public dialogue as it's going forward --

javni dijalog kako stvari budu napredovale -

which is more public than ever, which is fantastic --

koji je vše javan nego ikad pre, a to je sjajno -

and you feel your way,

i da opipate put,

you just ooze your way along,

prosto oblikujete put usput,

and this is the muddle-through approach that has worked pretty well so far.

a to je pristup probijanja kroz nered koji je do sad veoma dobro funkcionisao.

The reason that Sebastian and I are optimistic is we read

Razlog zašto smo Sebastijan i ja optimistični je zato što smo čitali

people like Steven Pinker, "The Better Angels of Our Nature,"

ljude poput Stivena Pinkera: "Bolji anđeli naše prirode",

and so far, so good.

i zasad je sve u redu.

Now, that can always change,

Sad, to uvek može da se promeni,

but you can build a lot on that sense of: things are capable of getting better,

ali možete mnogo da izgradite na tom osećaju: stvari mogu da se poprave,

figure out the tools that made that happen and apply those further.

pronađite oruđa koja su to postigla i proširite im primenu.

That's the story.

To je priča.

CA: Stewart, I think on that optimistic note,

KA: Stjuarte, mislim da ćemo u tom optimističnom tonu

we're actually going to wrap up.

zapravo da završimo.

I am in awe of how you always are willing to challenge yourself

Zadivljen sam tvojom spremnošću da uvek izazivaš sebe

and other people.

i druge ljude.

I feel like this recipe for never allowing yourself to be too certain

Osećam da je taj recept da nikad ne dopustimo sebi da budemo suviše sigurni

is so powerful.

toliko moćan.

I want to learn it more for myself,

Želim i sam bolje da ga savladam,

and it's been very insightful and inspiring, actually,

i bilo je veoma poučno i inspirativno, zapravo,

listening to you today.

slušati te danas.

Stewart Brand, thank you so much.

Stjuart Brend, mnogo ti hvala.

SB: Thank you.

SB: Hvala vama.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)