Mammoths resurrected and other thoughts from a futurist | Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson

譯者: CJ Chung 審譯者: congmei Han

Chris Anderson: OK, Stewart,

克里斯 · 安德森：好，史都華，

in the '60s, you -- I think it was '68 -- you founded this magazine.

60 年代時，大概 1968 年， 你創立了這份雜誌。

Stewart Brand: Bravo! It's the original one.

史都華 · 布蘭德：太棒了！ 這是原版的，現在很難找到了。

That's hard to find.

克：是。這是第一期，對吧？ 史：是的。

CA: Right. Issue One, right?

SB: Mm hmm.

CA: Why did that make so much impact?

克：為什麼它產生了 這麼大的影響力？

SB: Counterculture was the main event that I was part of at the time,

史：我在那時主要是參與了 反主流文化運動。

and it was made up of hippies and New Left.

由嬉皮和新左派組成的 反主流文化運動。

參與的約是與我同時期的人，

That was sort of my contemporaries,

the people I was just slightly older than.

我只比他們年長一點點。

我的方式是去觀察 有趣的趨勢在哪裡，

And my mode is to look at where the interesting flow is

and then look in the other direction.

然後去看與它相反的方向。

CA: (Laughs)

克：（笑）

SB: Partly, I was trained to do that as an army officer,

史：部份原因來自於 我在當陸軍軍官時受的訓練。

but partly, it's just a cheap heuristic to find originalities:

同時也以不費力的啟發方式 來尋找獨創性：

don't look where everybody else is looking,

別跟著大家看往同個方向，

look the opposite way.

看另外一邊。

So the deal with counterculture is, the hippies were very romantic

那時反主流文化的狀況是

嬉皮們非常浪漫，

and kind of against technology,

有點反現代科技，

except very good LSD from Sandoz,

除了山德士牌的迷幻藥；

and the New Left was against technology

而新左派反對現代科技，

because they thought it was a power device.

因為他們認為它只是種動力裝置。

Computers were: do not spindle, fold, or mutilate.

電腦不能釘、不能對摺、不能切半。

於是就反對它。

Fight that.

And so, the Whole Earth Catalog was kind of a counter-counterculture thing

所以，《全球目錄》算是 反–反主流文化的東西，

in the sense that I bought Buckminster Fuller's idea

在某種意義上我相信 巴克敏斯特 · 富勒的觀點，

that tools of are of the essence.

就是工具是精華部分。

Science and engineers basically define the world in interesting ways.

科學和工程師基本上

用很有趣的方式定義了世界。

If all the politicians disappeared one week,

如果所有的政客消失一個星期

it would be ... a nuisance.

會很麻煩；

But if all the scientists and engineers disappeared one week,

但如果所有的科學家 和工程師消失一星期，

it would be way more than a nuisance.

那情況就遠遠超過麻煩。

CA: We still believe that, I think.

克：我認為現代人仍然相信這個觀點。

SB: So focus on that.

史：所以把焦點放在那上面。

之後，新左派提出賦權於人民。

And then the New Left was talking about power to the people.

And people like Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak

像賈柏斯和史帝夫 · 沃茲尼克這些人，

cut that and just said, power to people,

擷取為賦權於人，

tools that actually work.

工具產生實際效果。

And so, where Fuller was saying don't try to change human nature,

富勒曾說不要試圖改變人類天性，

people have been trying for a long time and it does not even bend,

儘管人們已嘗試了很久， 但人類天性甚至一點也沒變。

but you can change tools very easily.

但要改變工具很容易。

So the efficient thing to do if you want to make the world better

如果你想讓世界變得更好， 那有效的做法

並不是讓人們像新左派那樣 做出奇怪的舉動，

is not try to make people behave differently like the New Left was,

but just give them tools that go in the right direction.

而只需給他們朝向正確方向的工具。

That was the Whole Earth Catalog.

那就是《全球目錄》在探討的。

CA: And Stewart, the central image -- this is one of the first images,

克：史都華，中心的這張圖，

是人們第一次從外太空 看地球的影像之一。

the first time people had seen Earth from outer space.

That had an impact, too.

那也帶來了一次衝擊。

SB: It was kind of a chance that in the spring of '66,

史：那是 1966 年的春天， 那算是種巧合，

thanks to an LSD experience on a rooftop in San Francisco,

我在舊金山的一個屋頂上， 在迷幻藥的作用下，

I got thinking about, again, something that Fuller talked about,

去思考了一句同樣是富勒說過的話，

that a lot of people assume that the Earth is flat

就是許多人假設地球是平的，

and kind of infinite in terms of its resources,

且它的資源是無限的，

但你一旦理解地球是圓的，

but once you really grasp that it's a sphere

and that there's only so much of it,

且資源也是有限的，

then you start husbanding your resources

那麼你就會開始節省使用你的資源，

而且把它視為是有限的系統。

and thinking about it as a finite system.

他用的比喻是「地球號太空船」。

"Spaceship Earth" was his metaphor.

And I wanted that to be the case,

我希望是那樣的，

but on LSD I was getting higher and higher on my hundred micrograms

但伴隨著一百微克的迷幻藥，

我在舊金山的屋頂上變得愈來愈嗨，

on the roof of San Francisco,

and noticed that the downtown buildings which were right in front of me

我注意到我眼前的市區建築

were not all parallel, they were sort of fanned out like this.

不是平行的，它們是如扇形展開的。

And that's because they are on a curved surface.

那是因為它們位在曲面上。

And if I were even higher, I would see that even more clearly,

若我能位於更高的位置， 我就能看得更清楚，

再更高，就再更清楚，

higher than that, more clearly still,

足夠高時，曲線就會合起來，

higher enough, and it would close,

and you would get the circle of Earth from space.

你就會看到從太空看到的圓形地球。

我心想，我們已航行太空十年了——

And I thought, you know, we've been in space for 10 years --

那是 1966 年的時候——

at that time, this is '66 --

and the cameras had never looked back.

太空鏡頭始終沒有往回看。

它們總是向外看或是 只看地球的某個部分。

They'd always been looking out or looking at just parts of the Earth.

And so I said, why haven't we seen a photograph of the whole Earth yet?

所以我問，為何我們仍舊 沒看到完整的地球照片？

And it went around and NASA got it and senators, secretaries got it,

這話就傳開來了，美國太空總署、 議員們、秘書長們都聽到了，

and various people in the Politburo got it,

共產黨中央執行委員會 一些不同的人也聽到了，

and it went around and around.

所以這話就一直傳、一直傳。

And within two and a half years,

在兩年半之內，

about the time the Whole Earth Catalog came out,

大約是《全球目錄》要出版的時候，

這些影像開始出現了，

these images started to appear,

and indeed, they did transform everything.

的確，它們真的改變了一切。

And my idea of hacking civilization

而我對於潛入人類文明的看法是：

is that you try to do something lazy and ingenious

你試著去做漫不經心 且別出心裁的東西，

and just sort of trick the situation.

竟會巧妙轉變整個情況。

So all of these photographs that you see --

所以你們看到的所有這些照片——

and then the march for science last week,

接著是上週的科學遊行抗議，

they were carrying these Whole Earth banners and so on --

他們帶著《全球目錄》的旗幟等等——

I did that with no work.

我不費吹灰之力就做到了。

I sold those buttons for 25 cents apiece.

那些小徽章，我一個賣 25 分錢。

So, you know, tweaking the system

所以，你知道，微調體系，

is, I think, not only the most efficient way to make the system go

依我所見，讓體系以有趣方式運作的

不僅僅是最有效率的方式，

in interesting ways,

but in some ways, the safest way,

在某些情況下，還是最安全的方式，

because when you try to horse the whole system around in a big way,

因為當你試圖以大動作 來調整整個系統時，

you can get into big horsing-around problems,

你就會遇到無法回頭的問題，

but if you tweak it, it will adjust to the tweak.

但如果你只作微調， 系統本身就會自我調整，

CA: So since then, among many other things,

克：所以，那時起， 除了許多其他形象，

you've been regarded as a leading voice in the environmental movement,

你還被視為環境運動的領導者，

但你也是反主流文化主義者，

but you are also a counterculturalist,

and recently, you've been taking on a lot of,

最近，你受到了很多…

well, you've been declaring

就是…由於你聲稱的觀點，

what a lot of environmentalists almost believe are heresies.

你幾乎被許多環境主義者視為異端。

I kind of want to explore a couple of those.

我有點想要探討其中幾個。

I mean, tell me about this image here.

比如說，與我談談這張圖片。

SB: Ha-ha!

史：哈哈！

That's a National Geographic image

那是國家地理雜誌的圖片，

of what is called the mammoth steppe,

圖上的是所謂的長毛象草原，

what the far north, the sub-Arctic and Arctic region, used to look like.

遙遠的北方，亞北極和北極圈 曾經看起來是這個樣子。

In fact, the whole world used to look like that.

事實上，整個世界曾經就是這個樣子。

What we find in South Africa and the Serengeti now,

我們現在在南非及塞倫蓋提所發現的

lots of big animals,

許多大型動物

was the case in this part of Canada,

以前也出現在加拿大的這個區域，

throughout the US, throughout Eurasia, throughout the world.

還有整個美國、整個歐亞大陸、 甚至整個世界。

This was the norm

這就是以前的常態，

and can be again.

它也能再次成為現代的常態。

So in a sense,

就某種意義上來說，

my long-term goal at this point is to not only bring back those animals

現在，我的長期目標 不僅是要帶回這些動物

and the grassland they made,

和當時形成的草地，

which could be a climate stabilization system over the long run,

長程來說這種草地 是種形成氣候穩定的系統，

but even the mammoths there in the background

就連在圖中遠方的那些長毛象，

that are part of the story.

也是我計劃中的的一部分。

And I think that's probably a 200-year goal.

我想，那大概是個需時兩百年的計畫。

Maybe in 100, by the end of this century,

也許一百年，就在這個世紀末，

we should be able to dial down the extinction rate

我們應該能夠降低絕種比率

to sort of what it's been in the background.

到背景中所呈現的樣子。

Bringing back this amount of bio-abundance will take longer,

復活這麼多的生物種類， 會需要更長的時間，

但是這是值得做的。

but it's worth doing.

克：我們待會再回到長毛象的部分，

CA: We'll come back to the mammoths,

但可否解釋一下 我們該怎麼看待絕種問題。

but explain how we should think of extinctions.

Obviously, one of the huge concerns right now

很顯然地， 目前令人擔心的重大問題之一

is that extinction is happening at a faster rate than ever in history.

是生物絕種的速度 比史上任何時期都快。

That's the meme that's out there.

那是一夕之間爆紅的東西。

How should we think of it?

我們該如何看待此事？

史：大家在說的事情

SB: The story that's out there

is that we're in the middle of the Sixth Extinction

是我們正處在第六次大滅絕當中，

or maybe in the beginning of the Sixth Extinction.

或在第六次大滅絕的開端。

Because we're in the de-extinction business,

因為我們正進行反滅絕，

the preventing-extinction business with Revive & Restore,

Revive & Restore （組織名）做的也是預防滅絕，

we started looking at what's actually going on with extinction.

我們開始探究滅絕到底是怎麼回事。

結果顯示，對數據收集有一定難度，

And it turns out, there's a very confused set of data out there

因為數據被過度簡化了，

which gets oversimplified

into the narrative of we're becoming ...

簡化成一種說法，我們正在變成…

Here are five mass extinctions that are indicated by the yellow triangles,

這裡顯示了五次大滅絕， 已用黃色三角形標示出來，

and we're now next.

我們現在就正面臨下一次的大滅絕。

The last one there on the far right

最右邊的最後一次

was the meteor that struck 66 million years ago

是 6600 萬年前， 由隕石撞擊造成的恐龍滅絕。

and did in the dinosaurs.

And the story is, we're the next meteor.

那麼仿間說法聲稱， 我們即將是下一個隕石。

Well, here's the deal.

而現狀是這樣的。

I wound up researching this for a paper I wrote,

我為這個主題進行了一篇論文研究，

that a mass extinction is when 75 percent of all the species

物種滅絕的定義是 全世界所有物種的 75%

in the world go extinct.

都絕跡。

Well, there's on the order of five-and-a-half-million species,

而世界上大約有 550 萬物種，

of which we've identified one and a half million.

其中有 150 萬種已知。

Another 14,000 are being identified every year.

每年人類還會再辨視出 1 萬 4 千種。

There's a lot of biology going on out there.

外頭有很多生物科學計畫在進行著。

Since 1500,

從 1500 年起，

about 500 species have gone extinct,

大約有 500 種物種絕跡，

and you'll see the term "mass extinction" kind of used in strange ways.

那你會發現使用 「物種滅絕」這個詞有點奇怪。

So there was, about a year and a half ago,

大約一年半前，

a front-page story by Carl Zimmer in the New York Times,

紐約時報頭版刊登 卡爾季默撰寫的一篇報導，

"Mass Extinction in the Oceans, Broad Studies Show."

「大量研究顯示， 海洋中的物種正滅絕」

And then you read into the article, and it mentions that since 1500,

接著你細讀文章， 文中提及自從 1500 年起，

15 species -- one, five -- have gone extinct in the oceans,

海洋中有 15 種物種， 十五種喔，絕種了，

and, oh, by the way, none in the last 50 years.

喔，順道一提， 過去五十年間沒有物種絕種。

再進一步閱讀這個故事，它說：

And you read further into the story, and it's saying,

the horrifying thing that's going on

正在發生中的可怕狀況是

is that the fisheries are so overfishing the wild fishes,

漁業過渡捕撈野生魚類，

that it is taking down the fish populations in the oceans

造成海洋中魚類數量

by 38 percent.

減少了 38%。

That's the serious thing.

那是個很嚴肅的事。

None of those species are probably going to go extinct.

那些物種可能沒有一種會絕種。

So you've just put, that headline writer

所以，寫那個標題的人就只是

put a panic button

按了一個應急按鈕

on the top of the story.

在這故事上頭，

It's clickbait kind of stuff,

然後誘使你去看的用意，

but it's basically saying, "Oh my God, start panicking,

但它僅是在說： 「喔，天啊，開始覺得恐慌吧，

we're going to lose all the species in the oceans."

我們即將失去海洋中所有的物種。」

Nothing like that is in prospect.

根本沒有像這樣的事情會發生。

And in fact, what I then started looking into in a little more detail,

事實上，當我開始做更細節的研究時，

the Red List shows about 23,000 species that are considered threatened

國際自然保護聯盟瀕危物種紅色名錄 顯示有 23,000 種物種

at one level or another,

被認為受到某種程度的威脅，

coming from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, the IUCN.

這些資料來自於 國際自然保護聯盟（IUCN）。

And Nature Magazine had a piece surveying the loss of wildlife,

《自然》雜誌有一篇文章， 調查了野生生命的滅絕，

and it said,

文中寫到：

「如果所有 23,000 種物種都滅絕

"If all of those 23,000 went extinct

in the next century or so,

且是在大約下個世紀發生，

and that rate of extinction carried on for more centuries and millennia,

那絕種速率將會持續數世紀、數千年，

那麼我們就有可能處於 第六次大滅絕的開端」

then we might be at the beginning of a sixth extinction.

So the exaggeration is way out of hand.

所以，這種說法誇張得過頭了。

But environmentalists always exaggerate.

但環境學家總是在誇大其詞。

That's a problem.

那是個問題。

CA: I mean, they probably feel a moral responsibility to,

克：他們可能認為 有道德責任要這麼做，

because they care so much about the thing that they are looking at,

因為他們非常在乎他們所研究的東西，

而你若不引起點騷動， 可能根本沒有人會理會。

and unless you bang the drum for it, maybe no one listens.

SB: Every time somebody says moral this or moral that --

史：每當有人說道德這個、道德那個，

"moral hazard," "precautionary principle" --

「道德危害」、「預防原則」，

these are terms that are used to basically say no to things.

這些詞基本上被 用來抗拒事物。

CA: So the problem isn't so much fish extinction, animal extinction,

克：所以問題並不是 魚類絕種、動物絕種，

it's fish flourishing, animal flourishing,

而是魚類繁盛、動物繁盛，

某種程度上我們在促進牠們的成長？

that we're crowding them to some extent?

SB: Yeah, and I think we are crowding, and there is losses going on.

史：是的，我認為我們的確在 促進牠們的成長，且造成了損失。

The major losses are caused by agriculture,

重大的損失由農業引起，

and so anything that improves agriculture and basically makes it more condensed,

所以能改善農業的東西， 基本上會帶來更高密度，

more highly productive,

和更高產量，

including GMOs, please,

拜託，基因改造也是，

but even if you want to do vertical farms in town,

但即使你想要在市區內做直立式農場，

including inside farms,

包括室內農場，

所有關於如何在地下室 種植大麻的知識，

all the things that have been learned about how to grow pot in basements,

is now being applied to growing vegetables inside containers --

現在都被應用來在容器內種植蔬菜。

that's great, that's all good stuff,

那很棒，那都是好事，

because land sparing is the main thing we can do for nature.

因為我們主要能做的， 就是節約大自然用地。

People moving to cities is good.

人們搬到城市中是好的。

Making agriculture less of a destruction of the landscape is good.

地貌不太會讓農業破壞是好的。

CA: There people talking about bringing back species, rewilding ...

克：有人在談論回歸物種本性，野化。

Well, first of all, rewilding species: What's the story with these guys?

首先，野化物種，這些人是怎麼回事？

SB: Ha-ha! Wolves.

史：哈哈！狼！

Europe, connecting to the previous point,

歐洲呢，和先前的論點相連結，

we're now at probably peak farmland,

可能正處於農田佔地比例的高峰，

順道一提，就人口方面來說，

and, by the way, in terms of population,

we are already at peak children being alive.

我們孩童的存活率已到了頂峰。

Henceforth, there will be fewer and fewer children.

因此，將來的孩童會越來越少。

We are in the last doubling of human population,

人口數量在做最後一次的翻倍，

and it will get to nine, maybe nine and a half billion,

人口數可能會達到 90 或 95 億，

and then start not just leveling off, but probably going down.

接著不僅會開始趨緩，還可能會下降，

Likewise, farmland has now peaked,

同樣的，農田佔地比正處於高峰，

and one of the ways that plays out in Europe

在歐州，呈現出來現象果之一就是

is there's a lot of abandoned farmland now,

有很多被廢棄的農田，

這些農田馬上就重新變回森林了。

which immediately reforests.

They don't do wildlife corridors in Europe.

在歐洲，他們不做野生動物廊道，

They don't need to, because so many of these farms are connected

他們不需要， 因為許多農田都相連在一起，

重新造就，變成野生動物廊道的叢林，

that they've made reforested wildlife corridors,

that the wolves are coming back, in this case, to Spain.

例如，狼群就重新回到西班牙。

They've gotten all the way to the Netherlands.

牠們走了好長一段路到荷蘭。

There's bears coming back. There's lynx coming back.

熊會回來，山貓會回來。

There's the European jackal. I had no idea such a thing existed.

還有歐洲豺，我之前 完全不知道有這種動物存在。

They're coming back from Italy to the rest of Europe.

牠們會從義大利及歐洲其他地方回來。

And unlike here, these are all predators, which is kind of interesting.

而不像這裡，這些都是掠食性動物， 這點蠻有趣的。

They are being welcomed by Europeans. They've been missed.

歐洲人歡迎牠們，人們想念牠們。

CA: And counterintuitively, when you bring back the predators,

克：違反直覺地， 當你把掠食性動物帶回來，

其實增加了而不是減少

it actually increases rather than reduces

the diversity of the underlying ecosystem often.

其背後生態系統的多樣性。

SB: Yeah, generally predators and large animals --

史：是的，一般來說， 掠食性動物和大型動物，

large animals and large animals with sharp teeth and claws --

大型動物和銳牙利爪的大型動物，

are turning out to be highly important for a really rich ecosystem.

其實對於豐富生態系統是很重要的。

CA: Which maybe brings us to this rather more dramatic rewilding project

克：這就把我們帶到 這個戲劇般的野化計畫，

that you've got yourself involved in.

你也參與其中。

Why would someone want to bring back these terrifying woolly mammoths?

為什麼有人想要把這些 駭人又毛茸茸的的長毛象帶回來？

SB: Hmm. Asian elephants are the closest relative

史：嗯。亞洲象是毛茸茸長毛象

to the woolly mammoth,

最近的近親，

and they're about the same size, genetically very close.

牠們的大小相似，基因上非常相近。

They diverged quite recently in evolutionary history.

在演化史上，牠們到很近期才分開。

The Asian elephants are closer to woolly mammoths

亞洲象和長毛象比較相近，

than they are to African elephants,

比和非洲象還近，

but they're close enough to African elephants

但牠們和非洲象的也夠相近了，

that they have successfully hybridized.

所以牠們能成功混種。

So we're working with George Church at Harvard,

我們和哈佛的喬治 · 秋吉合作。

who has already moved the genes for four major traits

已經成功搬移了四項主要特徵的基因，

from the now well-preserved, well-studied genome of the woolly mammoth,

從現在保存良好且被充份研究過的 長毛象基因組取出，

thanks to so-called "ancient DNA analysis."

這要感謝所謂的「史前基因分析」。

And in the lab, he has moved those genes into living Asian elephant cell lines,

在實驗室中，他把那些基因 移植到活的亞洲象細胞株中，

where they're taking up their proper place thanks to CRISPR.

感謝 CRISPR（DNA 剪輯）， 它們在那裡找到適合它們的地方。

I mean, they're not shooting the genes in like you did with genetic engineering.

他們並不是像基因工程那樣 把基因注射進去。

現在，有了 CRISPR， 基本上你可以編輯一組對偶基因，

Now with CRISPR you're editing, basically, one allele,

and replacing it in the place of another allele.

將它改放到另一組對偶基因的位置上。

So you're now getting basically Asian elephant germline cells

所以，基本上， 你現在讓亞洲象的生殖細胞

that are effectively in terms of the traits that you're going for

針對你所尋求的特徵，

to be comfortable in the Arctic,

讓它們能夠在北極區感到舒適，

you're getting them in there.

你再把牠們弄到那裡。

So we go through the process

所以我們走過了

of getting that through a surrogate mother,

採用代理孕母的過程，

an Asian elephant mother.

亞洲象孕母。

You can get a proxy, as it's being called by conservation biologists,

保育生物學家是這麼稱呼它的，代母，

of the woolly mammoth,

長毛象的代母，

that is effectively a hairy, curly-trunked, Asian elephant

實際上就是一隻捲鼻長毛

且很適應亞北極區的亞洲象。

that is perfectly comfortable in the sub-Arctic.

Now, it's the case, so many people say,

那現在許多人就在說：

"Well, how are you going to get them there?

「嗯，那你要如何把牠們弄到那裡？

And Asian elephants, they don't like snow, right?"

亞洲象並不喜歡雪，對吧？」

Well, it turns out, they do like snow.

結果發現，牠們喜歡雪。

在安大略動物園裡就有一些亞洲象

There's some in an Ontario zoo

that have made snowballs bigger than people.

牠們會做出比人還大的雪球。

They just love -- you know, with a trunk, you can start a little thing,

牠們就是愛——你知道， 有象鼻，能從小雪球開始玩起，

滾動它，讓它變大。

roll it and make it bigger.

人們接著說：

And then people say,

「好吧，但懷孕要 22 個月。

"Yeah, but it's 22 months of gestation.

This kind of cross-species cloning is tricky business, anyway.

總之，這種跨物種複製 是很難處理的事。

你會失去一些亞洲象代理孕母嗎？」

Are you going to lose some of the surrogate Asian elephant mothers?"

接著，喬治秋吉說：「沒關係。

And then George Church says, "That's all right.

我們可以用人工子宮的方式 來孕育牠們。」

We'll do an artificial uterus and grow them that way."

接著人們說： 「是啊，也許下個世紀吧」

Then people say, "Yeah, next century, maybe,"

except the news came out this week in Nature

然而，這個週末 《自然》刊出一則新聞，

that there's now an artificial uterus in which they've grown a lamb

內容是，他們已經成功 在人工子宮中培育出一隻小羊了，

to four weeks.

目前四週大。

That's halfway through its gestation period.

那是孕期的一半了。

So this stuff is moving right along.

所以，這技術在往前進步。

CA: But why should we want a world where --

克：但，為何我們會想要一個世界——

想像一個世界，有數千隻這樣的動物

Picture a world where there are thousands of these things

thundering across Siberia.

在西伯利亞雷霆萬鈞地移動。

Is that a better world?

那是個更好的世界嗎？

SB: Potentially. It's --

史：有可能，它是——

(Laughter)

（笑）

There's three groups, basically, working on the woolly mammoth seriously:

有三個團體基本上很認真地 在研究長毛象：

Revive & Restore, we're kind of in the middle;

Revive & Restore， 我們也算參與其中；

George Church and the group at Harvard that are doing the genetics in the lab;

在哈佛實驗室中研究基因的 喬治 · 秋吉團隊；

and then there's an amazing old scientist named Zimov

還有一位很了不起的 老科學家，吉莫夫，

who works in northern Siberia,

他在北西伯利亞做研究，

and his son Nikita, who has bought into the system,

他的兒子尼基塔相信這個系統，

and they are, Sergey and Nikita Zimov have been, for 25 years,

賽吉和尼基塔 · 吉莫夫 25 年來

creating what they call "Pleistocene Park,"

一直在創造他們所謂的「更新世公園」

這個公園位在西伯利亞 非常嚴峻的地區，是純凍原。

which is a place in a really tough part of Siberia that is pure tundra.

And the research that's been done shows

已經有研究顯示

that there's probably one one-hundredth of the animals on the landscape there

在那裡的動物， 可能只剩下過去的 1%

that there used to be.

過去曾經是像

先前的圖片那般，我們看到很多動物，

Like that earlier image, we saw lots of animals.

Now there's almost none.

現在幾乎沒有了。

The tundra is mostly moss, and then there's the boreal forest.

凍原大部分是苔蘚，還有北極森林。

And that's the way it is, folks. There's just a few animals there.

就是這樣的，各位 那裡就只有一點點動物。

所以人們帶進來了許多放牧動物：

So they brought in a lot of grazing animals:

麝香牛、雅庫特馬， 也帶進來了一些野牛，

musk ox, Yakutian horses, they're bringing in some bison,

they're bringing in some more now,

他們現在又帶進來更多一些，

把這些動物放到以前牠們群聚的地方。

and put them in at the density that they used to be.

And grasslands are made by grazers.

吃草的動物孕育了草地。

So these animals are there, grazing away,

這些動物就在那裡，放牧吃草，

and they're doing a couple of things.

那麼，牠們會做幾件事。

First of all, they're turning the tundra, the moss, back into grassland.

首先，牠們會把凍原、苔蘚變回草地。

Grassland fixes carbon.

草地就能處理碳問題。

Tundra, in a warming world, is thawing and releasing a lot of carbon dioxide

凍原會在暖化的環境中融解 並釋放許多二氧化碳，

and also methane.

還有甲烷。

So already in their little 25 square miles,

所以，雖然只有小小 25 平方英哩的面積，

they're doing a climate stabilization thing.

它們也在穩定氣候。

Part of that story, though,

不過，那故事的一部分是，

is that the boreal forest is very absorbent to sunlight,

北極森林非常會吸收陽光，

even in the winter when snow is on the ground.

即使冬天地面上有雪時也一樣。

And the way the mammoth steppe,

而這有著長毛象的西伯利亞大草原，

which used to wrap all the way around the North Pole --

以前包圍著北極周圍，

there's a lot of landmass around the North Pole --

在北極周圍有許多大陸，

that was all this grassland.

都是佈滿草地。

And the steppe was magnificent,

大草原非常壯麗，

probably one of the most productive biomes in the world,

可能是世界上最豐饒的 生物群落區之一，

the biggest biome in the world.

也是世界上最大的生物群落區。

現在，它森林的部分， 由賽吉 · 吉莫夫和尼基塔

The forest part of it, right now, Sergey Zimov and Nikita

go out with this old military tank they got for nothing,

開著他們免費拿到的老軍事坦克出去，

and they knock down the trees.

把樹撞倒，

And that's a bore, and it's tiresome,

那是無趣的事，很累人，

and as Sergey says, "... and they make no dung!"

賽吉說：「…而且它們（樹木） 不會製造糞肥！」

which, by the way, these big animals do, including mammoths.

順道一提，這些大型動物會 製造糞肥，包括長毛象。

So mammoths become what conservation biologists call

所以長毛象變成了 保育生物學家所稱的

an umbrella species.

庇護物種。

It's an exciting animal -- pandas in China or wherever --

它是個引發熱潮的動物， 就像中國或任何地方的熊貓，

that the excitement that goes on of making life good for that animal

熱潮持續下去， 那些動物的生活就會過得很好，

is making a habitat, an ecosystem,

熱潮造就了棲息地，即生態系統，

which is good for a whole lot of creatures and plants,

這對許多生物和植物都有益，

and it ideally gets to the point of being self-managing,

理想上，這個生態會到達 能夠自我管理的程度，

where the conservation biologists can back off and say,

那時保育生物學家就會退開說：

"All we have to do is keep out the destructive invasives,

「我們只需要把毀滅性的入侵 給擋在外面就好，

and this thing can just cook."

這東西就能自己運作。」

CA: So there's many other species that you're dreaming of de-extincting

克：所以，你也夢想著要讓 許多其他物種「反絕種」，

at some point,

遲早的問題，

but I think what I'd actually like to move on to

但，我想要接著談的想法是：

is this idea you talked about how mammoths might help

你先前談到關於毛象如何能協助，

green Siberia in a sense,

在某種層面上將西伯利亞綠化，

or at least, I'm not talking about tropical rainforest,

或至少，我指的不是熱帶雨林，

but this question of greening the planet you've thought about a lot.

但你花很多心思在 地球綠化的這個問題上。

And the traditional story is

而傳統的故事說法是

that deforestation is one of the most awful curses

砍伐森林在目前這個時代

是最可怕的詛咒之一，

of modern times,

and that it's a huge contributor to climate change.

它是氣候變遷背後很重大的因素。

And then you went and sent me this graph here, or this map.

接著，你寄給我這張圖，或說是地圖。

What is this map?

這是什麼地圖？

SB: Global greening.

史：全球綠化。

The thing to do with any narrative that you get from headlines

當你從頭條或是簡短新聞報導

and from short news stories

得到一些敘事時，

is to look for what else is going on,

要做的事是去看看 還有發生什麼其他的事，

and look for what Marc Andreessen calls "narrative violation."

尋找馬克 · 安德森所說的 「敘事違規」。

So the narrative -- and Al Gore is master of putting it out there --

敘事故事——艾爾 · 高爾是 這方面的應用大師——

is that there's this civilization-threatening

他說有個威脅到文明的氣候變遷

climate change coming on very rapidly.

以非常快的速度在發生。

We have to cease all extra production of greenhouse gases, especially CO2,

我們得要停止產生所有額外的 溫室氣體，尤其是二氧化碳，

越快越好，

as soon as possible,

otherwise, we're in deep, deep trouble.

否則，我們就會陷入很大的麻煩。

All of that is true, but it's not the whole story,

那些都是事實，但並不是整個故事，

and the whole story is more interesting than these fragmentary stories.

整個故事比這些片段故事更有趣。

Plants love CO2.

植物喜愛二氧化碳。

What plants are made of is CO2 plus water via sunshine.

植物的成份就是二氧化碳 加上水，再透過日照。

And so in many greenhouses, industrialized greenhouses,

所以，在許多溫室中 工業化的溫室中，

they add CO2 because the plants turn that into plant matter.

他們會添加二氧化碳 因為植物會把它轉為植物質。

So the studies have been done with satellites and other things,

已經有用衛星和其他東西 做了一些研究，

這張圖上的是 過去超過 33 年的狀況，

and what you're seeing here is a graph of, over the last 33 years or so,

there's 14 percent more leaf action going on.

多了 14% 的葉子在作用。

There's that much more biomass.

多了那麼些生物量。

多了那麼些生態學家所謂的 「主要產物」。

There's that much more what ecologists call "primary production."

多了那麼多的生命，

There's that much more life happening,

thanks to climate change,

要歸功於氣候變遷。

thanks to all of our goddam coal plants.

要歸功於我們所有該死的燃煤發電廠。

So -- whoa, what's going on here?

所以——哇，到底怎麼一回事？

By the way, crop production goes up with this.

順道一提，作物產量也會跟著提升。

This is a partial counter

這是對於二氧化碳增加壞處的

to the increase of CO2,

部分反證，

because there's that much more plant that is sucking it down

因為有那麼多的植物在吸收二氧化碳

into plant matter.

成為植物質。

Some of that then decays and goes right back up,

有些會腐爛，回到大氣層；

but some of it is going down into roots

但有些則會向下到達根部

and going into the soil and staying there.

進入土壤，留在那裡。

So these counter things are part of what you need to bear in mind,

所以你得記得這些反證的例子，

and the deeper story is

而且，當故事越講越深，

that thinking about and dealing with and engineering climate

去思考、

處理氣候的工程，

is a pretty complex process.

就是個很複雜的過程。

It's like medicine.

它就像醫學。

You're always, again, tweaking around with the system

再提醒一次，你總是在微調系統，

to see what makes an improvement.

看看什麼才會造成改善。

Then you do more of that, see it's still getting better,

然後你就把它再多做些， 看會不會再變更好，

接著——哎喲！夠了，退回半步。

then -- oop! -- that's enough, back off half a turn.

克：但有些人可能會說： 「並非所有綠色植物都同樣重要。」

CA: But might some people say, "Not all green is created equal."

有可能我們所做的代價就是 犧牲了壯麗的雨林

Possibly what we're doing is trading off the magnificence of the rainforest

以及所有的生物多樣性，

and all that diversity

for, I don't know, green pond scum or grass or something like that.

只為了，不知道怎麼說耶 綠色池塘浮渣或是草地之類的。

史：在一項研究的結果中發現 每一種形式的植物都在增加。

SB: In this particular study, it turns out every form of plant is increasing.

Now, what's interestingly left out of this study

而有趣的是，這項研究所漏掉的，

is what the hell is going on in the oceans.

是海洋中到底發生了什麼事。

海洋中的主要產物，

Primary production in the oceans,

the biota of the oceans, mostly microbial,

海洋生物，大部分是微生物，

它們會如何演變， 可能才是最重要的事。

what they're up to is probably the most important thing.

They're the ones that create the atmosphere

它們創造了大氣，

that we're happily breathing,

我們才能快樂地呼吸，

and they're not part of this study.

它們卻沒被納入這項研究中。

這就是詹姆斯洛夫洛克 一直在堅持的事情之一；

This is one of the things James Lovelock has been insisting;

basically, our knowledge of the oceans, especially of ocean life,

基本上，我們對於海洋的認知， 尤其是對海洋生命的認知，

is fundamentally vapor, in this sense.

是有著根本觀念上的匱乏。

So we're in the process of finding out

所以我們正處於探索的過程，

by inadvertent bad geoengineering of too much CO2 in the atmosphere,

憑藉疏忽地球工程

惡意排放過多的二氧化碳到大氣中，

finding out, what is the ocean doing with that?

來尋找海洋會對這個情況的反應？

Well, the ocean, with the extra heat,

好啦，海洋因為有了這額外產生的熱，

is swelling up.

而正在膨脹。

That's most of where we're getting the sea level rise,

對我們影響最大的莫過於海平面上升，

and there's a lot more coming with more global warming.

和越來越多氣候暖化的例子。

We're getting terrible harm to some of the coral reefs,

珊瑚礁承受嚴重的損害，

like off of Australia.

例如澳洲的珊瑚礁就是其一。

The great reef there is just a lot of bleaching from overheating.

這些美麗的珊瑚礁 因為海水過熱而白化。

And this is why I and Danny Hillis, in our previous session on the main stage,

這正是為何我和丹尼 · 希爾斯 在我們前段主題正文所說的：

was saying, "Look, geoengineering is worth experimenting with enough

「看吧，地球工程值得被充分地實驗，

to see that it works,

來看它到底是如何作用的，

to see if we can buy time in the warming aspect of all of this,

來看我們可以為暖化 所造成的影響爭取多少時間。

tweak the system with small but usable research,

對這個系統注入微小而有用的研究，

and then see if we should do more than tweak.

然後檢視我們是否該投入更多的研究。」

CA: OK, so this is what we're going to talk about

克：好的，所以這是最後幾分鐘

for the last few minutes here

我們即將談到的主題，

because it's such an important discussion.

因為這是非常重要的討論。

首先，這本書由尤佛哈拉瑞出版。

First of all, this book was just published by Yuval Harari.

He's basically saying the next evolution of humans is to become as gods.

他基本上是說下一階段 人類的演化是成為神祇。

我覺得——

I think he --

SB: Now, you've talked to him. And you've probably finished the book.

史：既然你現在談論到他， 那你大概讀完這本書了。

我還沒讀完。

I haven't finished it yet.

Where does he come out on --

他是從哪裡得出——

克：我的意思是說， 這是個非常極端的看法。

CA: I mean, it's a pretty radical view.

He thinks that we will completely remake ourselves

他認為我們會完全重建自己，

using data, using bioengineering,

藉由數據和生化工程，

to become completely new creatures

來成為全新的物種，

that have, kind of, superpowers,

這物種會有類似超能力，

and that there will be huge inequality.

而且將會有極大的不平等。

But we're about to write a very radical, brand-new chapter of history.

但我們會因此創造一個 根本上嶄新的歷史。

That's what he believes.

這是他相信的。

SB: Is he nervous about that? I forget.

史：他對這感到緊張嗎？我忘了。

CA: He's nervous about it,

克：他對這感到緊張。

but I think he also likes provoking people.

但我認為他也喜歡煽動人群。

SB: Are you nervous about that?

史：你對這感到緊張嗎？

CA: I'm nervous about that.

我對這感到緊張。

But, you know, with so much at TED, I'm excited and nervous.

但處於這麼多 TED 訊息分享中， 我總是興奮又緊張。

And the optimist in me is trying hard to lean towards

我樂觀的一面正努力嘗試勇往向前，

"This is awesome and really exciting,"

「這真是太好了，又令人感到振奮」，

while the sort of responsible part of me is saying,

而同時體內某個類似負責任的我會說：

"But, uh, maybe we should be a little bit careful

「但是，也許我們應該謹慎小心點，

as to how we think of it."

就如同我們現在心裡所想的。」

SB: That's your secret sauce, isn't it, for TED?

史：這就是你的獨家秘方，是嗎？

對於 TED，保持緊張又興奮？

Staying nervous and excited.

CA: It's also the recipe for being a little bit schizophrenic.

克：這也是維持精神分裂的 一點小秘訣。

But he didn't quote you.

但他沒有引用你的話。

What I thought was an astonishing statement that you made

我想到的是你所做的一個驚奇陳述，

right back in the original Whole Earth Catalog,

就在原始的《全球目錄》裡，

you ended it with this powerful phrase:

你以一段有力的說法當結尾：

「我們就像神一般， 那就好好地做好祂。」

"We are as gods, and might as well get good at it."

And then more recently, you've upgraded that statement.

就在最近，你升級了這段話。

I want you talk about this philosophy.

我想聽你說說這其中的哲理。

SB: Well, one of the things I'm learning is that documentation

史：這個嘛，其一是我體認到

紀錄文件總是比記憶強， 到目前為止。

is better than memory -- by far.

And one of the things I've learned from somebody --

其二是我從某人身上學到的教訓——

I actually got on Twitter.

我玩推特，它改變了我的生活——

It changed my life -- it hasn't forgiven me yet!

這段話還沒放過我！

And I took ownership of this phrase when somebody quoted it,

當有人引用我的這段話，

and somebody else said,

並且說：

"Oh by the way, that isn't what you originally wrote

「喔！順帶一提，那其實 不是你寫在第一本，

1968《全球目錄》最原始的版本。

in that first 1968 Whole Earth Catalog.

你寫的是：『如果我們像神一般， 那就一回生二回熟。』」

You wrote, 'We are as gods and might as well get used to it.'"

我完全忘了有這回事。

I'd forgotten that entirely.

The stories -- these goddam stories -- the stories we tell ourselves

這些故事，這些該死的故事啊， 這些我們自己說出來的故事

become lies over time.

隨著時間變成謊言。

所以，紀錄文件會幫忙解決這個問題。

So, documentation helps cut through that.

It did move on to "We are as gods and might as well get good at it,"

這段話的確演變為「我們就像神一般， 那就好好地做好祂。」

而這是整本《全球目錄》的精神。

and that was the Whole Earth Catalog.

到我寫這本叫做

By the time I was doing a book called "Whole Earth Discipline:

《全球規範：生態學家宣言》的書時，

An Ecopragmatist Manifesto,"

and in light of climate change, basically saying that we are as gods

根據氣候變遷的事件， 基本上說明了我們如神一般的存在，

and have to get good at it.

而且我們「必須」有所作為。

CA: We are as gods and have to get good at it.

克：我們就像神一般， 那就好好地做好祂。

So talk about that, because the psychological reaction

所以提到這個， 很多人一聽到你說生化工程，

from so many people as soon as you talk about geoengineering

就產生心理上的反應，

is that the last thing they believe is that humans should be gods --

他們不認為人類是神。

some of them for religious reasons,

有些人基於宗教上的理由，

but most just for humility reasons,

但更多的是人道因素的考量，

that the systems are too complex,

這個系統太複雜，

we should not be dabbling that way.

我們不應由此介入。

SB: Well, this is the Greek narrative about hubris.

史：這個嘛，這是對 失序傲慢的希臘式敘述。

And once you start getting really sure of yourself,

當你過於自信時，

you wind up sleeping with your mother.

會發現後來跟自己的母親上了床。

(Laughter)

（笑）

CA: I did not expect you would say that.

克：我沒料到你會居然這麼說。

(Laughter)

（笑）

SB: That's the Oedipus story.

史：這是伊底帕斯王的故事。 （註：希臘神話中弒父娶母的人物）

狂妄自大（註：Hubris，源自希臘）

Hubris is a really important cautionary tale to always have at hand.

是非常重要，讓人時時警惕的故事。

One of the guidelines I've kept for myself is:

其中一個我對自己的指導方針是：

every day I ask myself how many things I am dead wrong about.

每天我都會問自己弄錯了多少事。

And I'm a scientist by training

我是個受訓過的科學家，

and getting to work with scientists these days,

經過這麼些與科學一起工作的日子，

which is pure joy.

那是個單純的喜樂。

科學是有系統地抱持懷疑的態度。

Science is organized skepticism.

So you're always insisting

所以你總是要堅持著，

that even when something looks pretty good,

即使當事情進展看起來很順利，

you maintain a full set of not only suspicions

你抱持著不單是懷疑的態度，

about whether it's as good as it looks,

而是不論當事情進展看起來多順利，

but: What else is going on?

要思考「還有什麼在發生？」

So this "What else is going?" on query,

所以這「還有什麼在發生」的質疑，

我覺得就是要擺脫不實的新聞。

I think, is how you get away from fake news.

It's not necessarily real news,

新聞不全然是真的，

but it's welcomely more complex news

但是它總是伴隨著其他複雜的新聞，

that you're trying to take on.

端看你要如何接受。

CA: But coming back to the application of this just for the environment:

克：但回過頭來看這個 對環境上的應用：

不管我們喜不喜歡， 它似乎已變成一個態勢，

it seems like the philosophy of this is that, whether we like it or not,

我們已經主導太多 發生在地球上許多層面的事，

we are already dominating so many aspects of what happens on planets,

而且我們是不經意地去做了這些事，

and we're doing it unintentionally,

so we really should start doing it intentionally.

所以我們應該開始有意識地去進行。

What would it look like to start getting good at being a god?

開始像神一般地好好做事， 會是怎麼樣的情況？

How should we start doing that?

我們該如何著手？

Are there small-scale experiments or systems we can nudge and play with?

有小規模的實驗或是系統 可以讓我們先進行或實驗嗎？

How on earth do we think about it?

我們到底該如何思考這些事？

SB: The mentor that sort of freed me

史：把我從全然投入解放到

from total allegiance to Buckminster Fuller

完全忠於巴克敏斯特 · 富勒 （註：哲學/發明家）的導師

was Gregory Bateson.

是格雷戈里 · 貝特森。

And Gregory Bateson was an epistemologist and anthropologist and biologist

格雷戈里 · 貝特森是認識論者， 人類學家和生物學家，

and psychologist and many other things,

和心理學家，及許多其他事情的專家，

and he looked at how systems basically look at themselves.

他以系統如何看待自己的本質 去觀察這些事情。

And that is, I think, part of how you want to always be looking at things.

而這就是，我認為， 部分的你應該總是如此看待事情。

And what I like about David Keith's approach to geoengineering

而我對於大衛 · 凱斯處理 地球工程方式的喜愛

is you don't just haul off and do it.

在於他不是一股腦兒地就去進行。

David Keith's approach --

大衛 · 凱斯的做法——

and this is what Danny Hillis was talking about earlier --

先前丹尼 · 希爾斯也提過——

is that you do it really, really incrementally,

當你真的漸進式地

you do some stuff to tweak the system, see how it responds,

對系統注入一些東西並觀察它的反應，

that tells you something about the system.

就會得到有關這個系統的一些事情。

That's responding to the fact that people say, quite rightly,

那這就安靜且正確地 呼應了人們所說的：

「我們在討論什麼？

"What are we talking about here?

We don't understand how the climate system works.

我們不了解氣候系統是怎麼運作的。

You can't engineer a system you don't understand."

你無法操作一個你不了解的系統。」

And David says, "Well, that certainly applies to the human body,

那麼大衛就說了 「那不就跟人類身體系統一樣，

and yet medicine goes ahead, and we're kind of glad that it has."

醫藥能（在不完全了解人體的情況下） 先行，我們也慶幸如此。」

The way you engineer a system that is so large and complex

如此一來，運用巨大而複雜的系統

that you can't completely understand it

雖然你無法完全了解它，

is you tweak it,

卻可以慢慢扭轉它，

and this is kind of an anti-hubristic approach.

這就類似一種反無序傲慢的推進，

This is: try a little bit here,

這就是：嘗試一點點，

back the hell off if it's an issue,

如果變成問題了就退回來，

expand it if it seems to go OK,

如果順利就再往前推進，

meanwhile, have other paths going forward.

同時，其他方案也可以並進。

This is the whole argument for diversity and dialogue and all these other things

這就是所有事情多元化 和對話交流的論點，

and the things we were hearing about earlier with Sebastian [Thrun].

也就像我們之前聽到 賽巴斯丁所說的事情那樣。

So the non-hubristic approach is looking for social license,

因此，反無序傲慢的推進 正在尋求社會許可證，

which is a terminology that I think is a good one,

名義上來說我覺得是好的，

of including society enough

足夠涵蓋社會，

in these interesting, problematic, deep issues

對於這些有趣、有問題、 有深度的議題，

that they get to have a pretty good idea

大家能有好的認知，

and have people that they trust paying close attention

讓更多他們信任的人進一步關注，

to the sequence of experiments as it's going forward,

推進實驗的次序，

the public dialogue as it's going forward --

促進大眾對談——

which is more public than ever, which is fantastic --

意味著比以往更公開、 更令人驚奇的——

and you feel your way,

循著你感覺（正確）的道路上，

you just ooze your way along,

慢慢沿著你的道路行走。

and this is the muddle-through approach that has worked pretty well so far.

這只是個過一天算一天的做法， 但是到目前為止都行得通。

The reason that Sebastian and I are optimistic is we read

賽巴斯丁和我對此保持樂觀的原因

是當我們讀到像史蒂芬 · 平克的 「人性中的善良天使」，

people like Steven Pinker, "The Better Angels of Our Nature,"

and so far, so good.

到目前為止，一切都很順利。

Now, that can always change,

當然，這一切都可能會變。

but you can build a lot on that sense of: things are capable of getting better,

但如果你能建造一些概念像是： 事情可以變得更好，

figure out the tools that made that happen and apply those further.

找出所需的工具幫助它發生， 並讓它更進一步。

That's the story.

那就是我們該做的。

克：史都華，我想 對於抱持樂觀的重要性，

CA: Stewart, I think on that optimistic note,

we're actually going to wrap up.

我們該告一段落了。

I am in awe of how you always are willing to challenge yourself

我敬佩

你總是樂於挑戰自己和別人。

and other people.

我覺得你不讓自己過於 確定的態度

I feel like this recipe for never allowing yourself to be too certain

is so powerful.

非常強而有力，

I want to learn it more for myself,

我自己也想學更多。

and it's been very insightful and inspiring, actually,

今天你的這些分享，

非常富有洞察力，且激勵人心。

listening to you today.

Stewart Brand, thank you so much.

史都華布蘭德，非常感謝你。

SB: Thank you.

史：謝謝。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）