A bold idea to replace politicians | César Hidalgo

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Kristina Radosavljević

Is it just me,

Da li je do mene,

or are there other people here

ili ovde ima i drugih ljudi

that are a little bit disappointed with democracy?

koji su malo razočarani u demokratiju?

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

So let's look at a few numbers.

Pogledajmo neke brojke.

If we look across the world,

Ako pogledamo širom sveta,

the median turnout in presidential elections

prosečna izlaznost na predsedničkim izborima

over the last 30 years

u proteklih 30 godina

has been just 67 percent.

je bila svega 67 procenata.

Now, if we go to Europe

Ako pođemo do Evrope

and we look at people that participated in EU parliamentary elections,

i pogledamo ljude koji su učestvovali na parlamentarnim izborima EU,

the median turnout in those elections

prosečna izlaznost na tim izborima

is just 42 percent.

je svega 42 procenta.

Now let's go to New York,

Pođimo sad u Njujork,

and let's see how many people voted in the last election for mayor.

i pogledajmo koliko je ljudi glasalo na poslednjim izborima za gradonačelnika.

We will find that only 24 percent of people showed up to vote.

Otkrićemo da se svega 24 procenta ljudi pojavilo na glasanju.

What that means is that, if "Friends" was still running,

To znači da kad bi se i dalje prikazivali „Prijatelji”,

Joey and maybe Phoebe would have shown up to vote.

Džoi i možda Fibi bi se pojavili na glasanju.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And you cannot blame them because people are tired of politicians.

I ne možete da ih krivite, jer je ljudima dosta političara.

And people are tired of other people using the data that they have generated

I ljudima je dosta drugih ljudi koji koriste podatke koje su oni stvorili

to communicate with their friends and family,

da bi razgovarali sa prijateljima i porodicom,

to target political propaganda at them.

kako bi usmeravali političku propagandu na njih.

But the thing about this is that this is not new.

Međutim, radi se o tome da ovo nije novina.

Nowadays, people use likes to target propaganda at you

Danas ljudi koriste lajkove radi ciljane propagande ka vama,

before they use your zip code or your gender or your age,

a nekad su koristili poštanski broj, vaš pol ili vaš uzrast,

because the idea of targeting people with propaganda for political purposes

jer je ideja ciljanja ljudi u svrhe političke propagande

is as old as politics.

stara koliko i politika.

And the reason why that idea is there

A razlog zašto je ta ideja prisutna

is because democracy has a basic vulnerability.

je zato što demokratija ima osnovnu ranjivost.

This is the idea of a representative.

A radi se o ideji zastupnika.

In principle, democracy is the ability of people to exert power.

U principu, demokratija je mogućnost da ljudi vrše vlast.

But in practice, we have to delegate that power to a representative

U praksi, međutim, moramo da delegiramo tu moć zastupniku

that can exert that power for us.

koji može da vrši vlast za nas.

That representative is a bottleneck,

Taj zastupnik je usko grlo,

or a weak spot.

ili slaba tačka.

It is the place that you want to target if you want to attack democracy

To je mesto koje biste ciljali, ako želite da napadnete demokratiju,

because you can capture democracy by either capturing that representative

jer možete da kontrolišete demokratiju bilo kontrolisanjem tog zastupnika

or capturing the way that people choose it.

ili kontrolisanjem načina na koji ga ljudi biraju.

Veliko pitanje glasi:

So the big question is:

Is this the end of history?

da li je ovo kraj istorije?

Is this the best that we can do

Da li je ovo najbolje što možemo

or, actually, are there alternatives?

ili zapravo postoje alternative?

Some people have been thinking about alternatives,

Neki ljudi su razmišljali o alternativama,

and one of the ideas that is out there is the idea of direct democracy.

a jedna od zamisli u opticaju je zamisao o direktnoj demokratiji.

This is the idea of bypassing politicians completely

Radi se o zamisli zaobilaženja političara u potpunosti,

and having people vote directly on issues,

gde ljudi direktno glasaju o pitanjima,

having people vote directly on bills.

direktno glasaju za predloge zakona.

But this idea is naive

Međutim, ova ideja je naivna,

because there's too many things that we would need to choose.

jer ima previše stvari koje bismo morali da biramo.

If you look at the 114th US Congress,

Ako pogledate 114. kongres SAD-a,

you will have seen that the House of Representatives

videćete da je Predstavnički dom

considered more than 6,000 bills,

razmatrao preko 6 000 predloga zakona,

the Senate considered more than 3,000 bills

Senat je razmatrao preko 3 000 predloga zakona,

and they approved more than 300 laws.

a odobrili su preko 300 zakona.

Those would be many decisions

To bi bile brojne odluke

that each person would have to make a week

koje bi svaka osoba morala nedeljno da donese,

on topics that they know little about.

o temama o kojima malo znaju.

So there's a big cognitive bandwidth problem

Dakle, imamo veliki problem sa kognitivnim opsegom

if we're going to try to think about direct democracy as a viable alternative.

ako ćemo da razmišljamo o direktnoj demokratiji kao mogućoj alternativi.

So some people think about the idea of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,

Pa neki ljudi razmatraju ideju tečne demokratije ili fluidne demokratije,

which is the idea that you endorse your political power to someone,

a to je ideja da date punomoć za vašu političku moć nekome,

who can endorse it to someone else,

ko može tu punomoć dati nekom drugom,

and, eventually, you create a large follower network

da biste na kraju stvorili veliku mrežu pratilaca

in which, at the end, there's a few people that are making decisions

u kojoj se na kraju nalazi nekolicina ljudi koja donosi odluke,

on behalf of all of their followers and their followers.

u ime svih njihovih pratilaca i pratilaca tih pratilaca.

But this idea also doesn't solve the problem of the cognitive bandwidth

Međutim, ni ova ideja ne rešava problem kognitivnog opsega,

and, to be honest, it's also quite similar to the idea of having a representative.

i iskreno, prilično je slična ideji da imate zastupnika.

So what I'm going to do today is I'm going to be a little bit provocative,

Zato ću ja danas da budem malo provokativan,

pa ću vas pitati:

and I'm going to ask you, well:

What if, instead of trying to bypass politicians,

šta ako bismo umesto pokušavanja da zaobiđemo političare,

we tried to automate them?

pokušali da ih automatizujemo?

The idea of automation is not new.

Ideja automatizacije nije nova.

It was started more than 300 years ago,

Pokrenuta je pre više od 300 godina,

when French weavers decided to automate the loom.

kada su francuski tkači odlučili da automatizuju razboj.

The winner of that industrial war was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.

Pobednik tog industrijskog rata je bio Žozef-Mari Žakard.

He was a French weaver and merchant

On je bio francuski tkalac i trgovac

that married the loom with the steam engine

koji je spojio razboj sa parnim motorom

to create autonomous looms.

kako bi napravio automatski razboj.

And in those autonomous looms, he gained control.

Sa tim automatskim razbojima on je pridobio kontrolu.

He could now make fabrics that were more complex and more sophisticated

Sada je mogao da pravi materijale koji su složeniji i prefinjeniji

than the ones they were able to do by hand.

od onih koji su pravljeni ručno.

But also, by winning that industrial war,

Međutim, pobedom u tom industrijskom ratu

he laid out what has become the blueprint of automation.

postavio je i temelje nečemu što će postati obrazac automatizacije.

The way that we automate things for the last 300 years

Način na koji automatizujemo stvari u proteklih 300 godina

has always been the same:

je oduvek bio isti:

we first identify a need,

prvo identifikujemo potrebu,

then we create a tool to satisfy that need,

potom napravimo oruđe da zadovoljimo potrebu,

like the loom, in this case,

poput razboja u ovom slučaju,

and then we study how people use that tool

a potom izučavamo kako ljudi koriste to oruđe

to automate that user.

da bismo automatizovali korisnika.

That's how we came from the mechanical loom

Tako smo prešli sa mehaničkog razboja

to the autonomous loom,

na automatski razboj,

and that took us a thousand years.

a za to nam je bilo potrebno hiljadu godina.

Now, it's taken us only a hundred years

Bilo nam je potrebno svega sto godina

to use the same script to automate the car.

da korstimo isti scenario da automatizujemo automobil.

But the thing is that, this time around,

Međutim, radi se o tome da je ovaj put

automation is kind of for real.

automatizacije nekako stvarna.

This is a video that a colleague of mine from Toshiba shared with me

Ovo je snimak koji je moj kolega iz Tošibe podelio sa mnom.

that shows the factory that manufactures solid state drives.

On pokazuje fabriku koja proizvodi poluprovodničke diskove.

The entire factory is a robot.

Čitava fabrika je robot.

There are no humans in that factory.

Nema ljudi u fabrici.

And the robots are soon to leave the factories

A roboti će uskoro da napuste fabrike

and become part of our world,

i da postanu deo našeg sveta,

become part of our workforce.

deo naše radne snage.

So what I do in my day job

Dakle, moj dnevni posao

is actually create tools that integrate data for entire countries

je zapravo stvaranje oruđa koja integrišu podatke celokupnih država

so that we can ultimately have the foundations that we need

kako bismo na kraju imali potrebne osnove

for a future in which we need to also manage those machines.

za budućnost u kojoj moramo i da upravljamo tim mašinama.

But today, I'm not here to talk to you about these tools

Međutim, danas nisam ovde da vam pričam o tim oruđima

that integrate data for countries.

koja integrišu državne podatke,

But I'm here to talk to you about another idea

nego sam ovde da govorim o jednoj drugoj ideji

that might help us think about how to use artificial intelligence in democracy.

koja bi nam mogla pomoći u razmišljanju

kako da koristimo veštačku inteligenciju u demokratiji.

Because the tools that I build are designed for executive decisions.

Jer su oruđa koja sam napravio dizajnirana za izvršne odluke.

These are decisions that can be cast in some sort of term of objectivity --

To su odluke koje mogu da se donesu u nekom obliku objektivnosti -

public investment decisions.

odluke o javnim investicijama.

But there are decisions that are legislative,

Međutim, postoje zakonodavne odluke,

and these decisions that are legislative require communication among people

a te zakonodavne odluke zahtevaju komunikaciju među ljudima

that have different points of view,

koji imaju različite tačke gledišta,

require participation, require debate,

zahtevaju učešće, debatu,

require deliberation.

zahtevaju razmatranje.

And for a long time, we have thought that, well,

Dugo vremena smo smatrali da,

what we need to improve democracy is actually more communication.

kako bismo unapredili demokratiju, zapravo nam je potrebno više komunikacije.

So all of the technologies that we have advanced in the context of democracy,

Pa su sve tehnologije koje smo unapredili u tom kontekstu demokratije,

bilo da se radi o novinama ili društvenim mrežama,

whether they are newspapers or whether it is social media,

have tried to provide us with more communication.

pokušale da nam obezbede više komunikacije.

But we've been down that rabbit hole,

Ali već smo prošli tu zamku

and we know that's not what's going to solve the problem.

i znamo da to neće da reši problem.

Because it's not a communication problem,

Jer se ne radi o problemu u komunikaciji,

radi se o problemu kognitivnog opsega.

it's a cognitive bandwidth problem.

So if the problem is one of cognitive bandwidth,

Ako se radi o problemu kognitivnog opsega,

well, adding more communication to people

dodavanje više komunikacije među ljudima

is not going to be what's going to solve it.

neće rešiti problem.

What we are going to need instead is to have other technologies

Umesto toga će nam biti potrebne nove tehnologije,

that help us deal with some of the communication

koje će nam pomoći da se rešimo dela ove komunikacije

that we are overloaded with.

kojom smo zatrpani.

Think of, like, a little avatar,

Zamislite na primer, malog avatara,

a software agent,

softverskog agenta,

a digital Jiminy Cricket --

digitalnog cvrčka iz Pinokija, Džiminija -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

that basically is able to answer things on your behalf.

koji je u stanju da odgovara u vaše ime.

And if we had that technology,

Ako bismo imali tu tehnologiju,

we would be able to offload some of the communication

bili bismo u stanju da se oslobodimo dela te komunikacije,

and help, maybe, make better decisions or decisions at a larger scale.

i možda pomognemo donošenju boljih odluka ili odluka većeg obima.

And the thing is that the idea of software agents is also not new.

Stvar je u tome da ideja o softverskim agentima nije nova.

We already use them all the time.

Već ih stalno koristimo.

We use software agents

Koristimo softverske agente

to choose the way that we're going to drive to a certain location,

da odlučimo put kojim ćemo da vozimo do određene lokacije,

the music that we're going to listen to

koju ćemo muziku slušati,

or to get suggestions for the next books that we should read.

ili da nam preporuče sledeću knjigu koju bi trebalo da pročitamo.

So there is an obvious idea in the 21st century

Dakle, postoji očigledna ideja u 21. veku

that was as obvious as the idea

koja je jednako očigledna kao i ideja

of putting together a steam engine with a loom at the time of Jacquard.

da se sastave parni motor i razboj u Žakardovo vreme.

And that idea is combining direct democracy with software agents.

A ta ideja je kombinovanje direktne demokratije i softverskih agenata.

Imagine, for a second, a world

Zamislite za trenutak svet

in which, instead of having a representative that represents you

u kome, umesto što imate zastupnika koji zastupa

and millions of other people,

vas i milione drugih ljudi,

you can have a representative that represents only you,

možete da imate zastupnika koji zastupa samo vas,

with your nuanced political views --

sa vašim nijansiranim političkim stavovima -

that weird combination of libertarian and liberal

tu čudnu kombinaciju libertarijanca i liberala,

and maybe a little bit conservative on some issues

i možda po nekim pitanjima malo konzervativca,

and maybe very progressive on others.

a po nekim drugim, vrlo progresivnog.

Politicians nowadays are packages, and they're full of compromises.

Današnji političari su paketi i puni su kompromisa.

But you might have someone that can represent only you,

Međutim, možete da imate nekoga ko može da predstavlja samo vas,

if you are willing to give up the idea

ako ste spremni da odustanete od ideje

that that representative is a human.

da je zastupnik ljudsko biće.

If that representative is a software agent,

Da je taj zastupnik softverski agent,

we could have a senate that has as many senators as we have citizens.

mogli bismo da imamo senat koji bi imao onoliko senatora koliko imamo stanovnika.

And those senators are going to be able to read every bill

A ti senatori bi bili u stanju da čitaju svaki predlog zakona,

and they're going to be able to vote on each one of them.

i da glasaju o svakom od njih.

So there's an obvious idea that maybe we want to consider.

Dakle, imamo očiglednu ideju koju bismo možda želeli da razmotrimo.

But I understand that in this day and age,

Međutim, razumem da u današnje vreme

this idea might be quite scary.

ova ideja može biti prilično zastrašujuća.

In fact, thinking of a robot coming from the future

U stvari, razmišljati o robotu koji dolazi iz budućnosti

to help us run our governments

da nam pomogne da vodimo države

sounds terrifying.

zvuči zastrašujuće.

But we've been there before.

Međutim, već smo to doživeli.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And actually he was quite a nice guy.

I zapravo je bio prilično fin momak.

So what would the Jacquard loom version of this idea look like?

Kako bi Žakardova ideja razboja u ovoj verziji izgledala?

It would be a very simple system.

To bi bio veoma jednostavan sistem.

Imagine a system that you log in and you create your avatar,

Zamislite sistem u koji se ulogujete i napravite svoj avatar,

and then you're going to start training your avatar.

a potom počinjete da obučavate svog avatara.

So you can provide your avatar with your reading habits,

Možete da prenesete na vaš avatar soptvene čitalačke skolonosti,

or connect it to your social media,

ili da ga povežete sa vašim društvenim mrežama,

or you can connect it to other data,

ili da ga povežete s drugim podacima,

for example by taking psychological tests.

na primer, rešavajući psihološke testove.

And the nice thing about this is that there's no deception.

Dobra stvar kod ovoga je ta što nema obmane.

You are not providing data to communicate with your friends and family

Ne dajete podatke kako biste komunicirali sa prijateljima i porodicom,

that then gets used in a political system.

a da se to kasnije koristi u političkom sistemu.

You are providing data to a system that is designed to be used

Pružate podatke sistemu koji je osmišljen da se koristi

to make political decisions on your behalf.

kako bi donosio političke odluke u vaše ime.

Then you take that data and you choose a training algorithm,

Potom uzmete te podatke i odaberete algoritam za obuku,

because it's an open marketplace

jer se radi o otvorenom tržištu,

in which different people can submit different algorithms

u kome različiti ljudi mogu da prilože različite algoritme

to predict how you're going to vote, based on the data you have provided.

kako bi predvideli kako ćete da glasate na osnovu podataka koje ste ponudili.

And the system is open, so nobody controls the algorithms;

A sistem je otvoren, dakle, niko ne kontroliše algoritme;

there are algorithms that become more popular

tu su algoritmi koji će biti popularniji i drugi koji će da budu manje popularni.

and others that become less popular.

Eventually, you can audit the system.

Naposletku, možete da revidirate sistem.

You can see how your avatar is working.

Možete da vidite kako vaš avatar funkcioniše.

If you like it, you can leave it on autopilot.

Ako vam se dopada, stavite ga na sistem autopilota.

If you want to be a little more controlling,

Ako želite da imate malo veću kontrolu,

you can actually choose that they ask you

možete zapravo da odaberete da vas pitaju kad god treba da donesu neku odluku,

every time they're going to make a decision,

or you can be anywhere in between.

ili možete da budete negde u sredini.

One of the reasons why we use democracy so little

Jedan od razloga zašto tako malo koristimo demokratiju

may be because democracy has a very bad user interface.

je možda taj što demokratija ima veoma loš korisnički pristup.

And if we improve the user interface of democracy,

Ako bismo unapredili korisnički pristup demokratije,

we might be able to use it more.

možda bismo mogli da je više koristimo.

Of course, there's a lot of questions that you might have.

Naravno, verovatno imate gomilu pitanja.

Well, how do you train these avatars?

Kako da obučavate ove avatare?

How do you keep the data secure?

Kako da vaši podaci budu bezbedni?

How do you keep the systems distributed and auditable?

Kako da vaš sistem bude raspodeljen i podložan reviziji?

How about my grandmother, who's 80 years old

Šta je sa mojom bakom koja ima 80 godina

and doesn't know how to use the internet?

i ne zna kako da koristi internet?

Trust me, I've heard them all.

Verujte mi, sva ta pitanja sam čuo.

So when you think about an idea like this, you have to beware of pessimists

Kada razmišljate o ovakvoj ideji, morate da se pazite pesimista,

because they are known to have a problem for every solution.

jer su poznati po tome što imaju problem za svako rešenje.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So I want to invite you to think about the bigger ideas.

Želim da vas pozovem da razmišljate o većim idejama.

The questions I just showed you are little ideas

Pitanja koja sam vam upravo pokazao su male ideje,

because they are questions about how this would not work.

jer se radi o pitanjima zašto ovo ne bi funkcionisalo.

The big ideas are ideas of:

Velike ideje su:

What else can you do with this

šta još možemo da uradimo s ovim,

if this would happen to work?

ukoliko bi ovo funkcionisalo?

And one of those ideas is, well, who writes the laws?

A jedna od tih ideja je: ko piše zakone?

In the beginning, we could have the avatars that we already have,

U početku bismo mogli da imamo avatare koje već imamo,

voting on laws that are written by the senators or politicians

koji glasaju za zakone koje su pisali senatori ili političari

that we already have.

koje već imamo.

But if this were to work,

Međutim, ako bi ovo proradilo,

you could write an algorithm

mogli biste da napišete algoritam

that could try to write a law

koji bi pokušao da napiše zakon

that would get a certain percentage of approval,

koji bi dobio određen procenat podrške,

and you could reverse the process.

i mogli biste da obrnete proces.

Now, you might think that this idea is ludicrous and we should not do it,

Možda smatrate da je ova ideja smešna i da ne bi trebalo to da radimo,

but you cannot deny that it's an idea that is only possible

ali ne možete da negirate da je ova ideja jedino moguća

in a world in which direct democracy and software agents

u svetu u kome su direktna demokratija i softverski agenti

are a viable form of participation.

održivi oblici učešća.

So how do we start the revolution?

Kako da otpočnemo revoluciju?

We don't start this revolution with picket fences or protests

Ne započinjemo ovu revoluciju tarabama ili protestima,

or by demanding our current politicians to be changed into robots.

ili zahtevajući od trenutnih političara da se pretvore u robote.

That's not going to work.

To neće funkcionisati.

This is much more simple,

Ovo je mnogo jednostavnije,

much slower

mnogo sporije

and much more humble.

i mnogo skromnije.

We start this revolution by creating simple systems like this in grad schools,

Počinjemo revoluciju stvarajući proste sisteme poput ovog na fakultetima,

in libraries, in nonprofits.

ili u bibliotekama, neprofitnim organizacijama.

And we try to figure out all of those little questions

I pokušavamo da shvatimo sva ta mala pitanja,

and those little problems

te male probleme,

that we're going to have to figure out to make this idea something viable,

koje ćemo morati da rešimo da bi ova ideja postala održiva,

to make this idea something that we can trust.

kako bi ova ideja postala nešto čemu možemo verovati.

And as we create those systems that have a hundred people, a thousand people,

Kako stvaramo ove sisteme sa stotinama, hiljadama,

a hundred thousand people voting in ways that are not politically binding,

stotinama hiljada ljudi koji glasaju na načine koji nisu politički obavezujući,

we're going to develop trust in this idea,

izgradićemo poverenje u ovu ideju,

the world is going to change,

svet će se promeniti,

and those that are as little as my daughter is right now

a oni koji su mladi, kao moja ćerka danas,

are going to grow up.

će odrasti.

And by the time my daughter is my age,

A kad moja ćerka bude mojih godina,

maybe this idea, that I know today is very crazy,

možda će ova ideja, za koju znam da danas zvuči sumanuto,

might not be crazy to her and to her friends.

njoj i njenim prijateljima neće biti sumanuta.

And at that point,

A u tom trenutku,

we will be at the end of our history,

mi ćemo biti na kraju naše istorije,

but they will be at the beginning of theirs.

ali oni će biti na početku njihove.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)