A bold idea to replace politicians | César Hidalgo

翻译人员: Yuelong Dai 校对人员: Sajedah Al-Zuheiri

Is it just me,

这就我一个，

or are there other people here

还是在座的还有其他人

that are a little bit disappointed with democracy?

对我们的民主有些小失望？

(Applause)

（掌声）

So let's look at a few numbers.

我们来看一组数据。

If we look across the world,

如果我们看整个世界，

the median turnout in presidential elections

在过去三十年里

over the last 30 years

参加总统选举投票的中位数

has been just 67 percent.

只有百分之六十七。

Now, if we go to Europe

我们如果转向欧洲

and we look at people that participated in EU parliamentary elections,

看看参与欧盟议会选举的人数，

the median turnout in those elections

投票的中位数

is just 42 percent.

只有百分之四十二。

Now let's go to New York,

我们如果转向纽约，

and let's see how many people voted in the last election for mayor.

看看多少人参加了上次市长选举投票

We will find that only 24 percent of people showed up to vote.

我们发现只有百分之二十四的人出去投了票。

What that means is that, if "Friends" was still running,

这就意味着，如果“老友记”还在放的话，

Joey and maybe Phoebe would have shown up to vote.

只有乔伊和或许菲比会去投。

(Laughter)

（掌声）

And you cannot blame them because people are tired of politicians.

你没法怪他们因为人们 已经对政客厌倦了。

And people are tired of other people using the data that they have generated

而且人们也很厌倦其他人用

to communicate with their friends and family,

他们和他们的朋友和家人 沟通时产生的数据

to target political propaganda at them.

针对他们做政治宣传。

But the thing about this is that this is not new.

但这也不是什么新做法。

Nowadays, people use likes to target propaganda at you

现在，人们用你的点赞对你聚焦宣传

before they use your zip code or your gender or your age,

以前他们是用你的邮编或者 你的性别或者你的年龄，

because the idea of targeting people with propaganda for political purposes

因为针对性政治宣传

is as old as politics.

和政治本身一样历史悠久。

And the reason why that idea is there

这些做法之所以存在

is because democracy has a basic vulnerability.

是因为民主有一个很基本的弱点。

This is the idea of a representative.

这就是代表这个概念。

In principle, democracy is the ability of people to exert power.

原则上，民主是人民行使权力的能力。

But in practice, we have to delegate that power to a representative

但事实上，我们不得不把这个权力 交给一个代表

that can exert that power for us.

来替我们行使那个权力。

That representative is a bottleneck,

那个代表就是一个瓶颈，

or a weak spot.

一个短板。

It is the place that you want to target if you want to attack democracy

如果你想攻击民主的话 你就从那儿开始

because you can capture democracy by either capturing that representative

如果你能俘获那个代表，

or capturing the way that people choose it.

或是俘获人们选出代表的方式， 你就可以俘获民主本身。

So the big question is:

所以关键问题是：

Is this the end of history?

这是历史的终点吗？

Is this the best that we can do

我们已经没法做的更好

or, actually, are there alternatives?

或者，实际上还有别的方法？

Some people have been thinking about alternatives,

很多人都在探索别的方法，

and one of the ideas that is out there is the idea of direct democracy.

现在有一个想法叫直接民主。

This is the idea of bypassing politicians completely

这个想法主张完全跳过政客

and having people vote directly on issues,

让人们直接对议题投票，

having people vote directly on bills.

对法案直接投票。

But this idea is naive

但这个想法还是很天真

because there's too many things that we would need to choose.

因为那样的话我们就有太多的东西 要选择。

If you look at the 114th US Congress,

如果你看美国114届议会，

you will have seen that the House of Representatives

你就会发现众议院

considered more than 6,000 bills,

审议过6000多个法案，

the Senate considered more than 3,000 bills

参议院审议过3000多个法案，

and they approved more than 300 laws.

他们通过了300个立法。

Those would be many decisions

这就意味着

that each person would have to make a week

每个人一个星期里

on topics that they know little about.

要对很多他们不了解的话题做决定。

So there's a big cognitive bandwidth problem

这就有个知识范围的问题

if we're going to try to think about direct democracy as a viable alternative.

如果我们要把直接民主 做为一种可能性的话。

So some people think about the idea of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,

所以有些人在考虑液体民主， 或流体民主，

which is the idea that you endorse your political power to someone,

这就是你把你的政治权利交给别人，

who can endorse it to someone else,

那个人再转交给另外一个人，

and, eventually, you create a large follower network

这样最后你就建立了一个很大的跟随网络

in which, at the end, there's a few people that are making decisions

再到最后，一小群人开始代表

on behalf of all of their followers and their followers.

他们的跟随者以及 跟随者的跟随者做决定。

But this idea also doesn't solve the problem of the cognitive bandwidth

但这个想法也没法解决知识范围的问题

and, to be honest, it's also quite similar to the idea of having a representative.

而且实话说，这跟有个代表也差不多。

So what I'm going to do today is I'm going to be a little bit provocative,

所以，我今天想大胆些，

and I'm going to ask you, well:

让我来问你：

What if, instead of trying to bypass politicians,

如果我们不试图跨越政客，

we tried to automate them?

而是试图把他们自动化会怎么样？

The idea of automation is not new.

这个自动化的想法也不是刚出来的了。

It was started more than 300 years ago,

300年前就开始了，

when French weavers decided to automate the loom.

那时候法国织布工想要把织机自动化。

The winner of that industrial war was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.

那个工业战争的胜者叫 约瑟夫·玛丽·雅卡尔。

He was a French weaver and merchant

他是个法国织布工和商人

that married the loom with the steam engine

他把织布机和蒸汽发动机联在一起

to create autonomous looms.

来取得自动织机。

And in those autonomous looms, he gained control.

在那些自动织机里他取得了控制。

He could now make fabrics that were more complex and more sophisticated

他可以做出比其他手工编织

than the ones they were able to do by hand.

更复杂的布料。

But also, by winning that industrial war,

同时，通过赢得了那场工业战争，

he laid out what has become the blueprint of automation.

他也规划出了自动化的蓝图。

The way that we automate things for the last 300 years

我们自动化的方式

过去300年里都是一样的：

has always been the same:

we first identify a need,

我们首先找到一个需求，

then we create a tool to satisfy that need,

然后我们制造一个工具满足那个需求，

like the loom, in this case,

就象织布机，在这个例子里，

and then we study how people use that tool

然后我们研究人们是怎么用那个工具的

to automate that user.

然后把那个人的工作自动化。

That's how we came from the mechanical loom

这就是我们从机械织机

to the autonomous loom,

演化到了自动织机，

and that took us a thousand years.

这足足花了我们一千年时间。

Now, it's taken us only a hundred years

后来，我们只花了一百年时间

to use the same script to automate the car.

用同一个套路自动化了汽车。

But the thing is that, this time around,

不过这一回，

automation is kind of for real.

自动化是动真格的了。

This is a video that a colleague of mine from Toshiba shared with me

这个录像是我在东芝的一个同事发给我们的

that shows the factory that manufactures solid state drives.

是制造固态硬盘的工厂。

The entire factory is a robot.

整个工厂就是一个机器人。

There are no humans in that factory.

工厂里没有工人。

And the robots are soon to leave the factories

很快机器人就会走出工厂

and become part of our world,

成为我们世界的一部分，

become part of our workforce.

成为劳动大军的一部分。

So what I do in my day job

我的本职工作

is actually create tools that integrate data for entire countries

实际上是创造为整个国家整合数据的工具

so that we can ultimately have the foundations that we need

最终建立起我们需要的基础

for a future in which we need to also manage those machines.

在未来的日子里也可以管理这些机器。

But today, I'm not here to talk to you about these tools

不过今天，我不是在这里跟你们谈这些

that integrate data for countries.

为国家整合数据的工具的。

But I'm here to talk to you about another idea

我在这里是想跟大家谈另外一个想法

that might help us think about how to use artificial intelligence in democracy.

或许能帮助我们考虑在民主上 如何利用人工智能。

Because the tools that I build are designed for executive decisions.

因为我的工具是为行政决策设计的。

These are decisions that can be cast in some sort of term of objectivity --

这些决策是基于一定程度的客观性的－

public investment decisions.

公共投资决定。

But there are decisions that are legislative,

但也有决定是立法有关的，

and these decisions that are legislative require communication among people

这些和立法有关的决定就需要

that have different points of view,

有各持己见的人们之间的沟通，

require participation, require debate,

需要参与，需要探讨，

require deliberation.

需要三思。

And for a long time, we have thought that, well,

很久以来我们一直认为

what we need to improve democracy is actually more communication.

我们要改善民主的话就要加强沟通。

So all of the technologies that we have advanced in the context of democracy,

所以所有我们以民主为名开发的科技，

whether they are newspapers or whether it is social media,

无论是报纸还是社交媒体，

have tried to provide us with more communication.

都试图给我们提供更多的沟通。

But we've been down that rabbit hole,

但我们以前陷进过这种无底洞，

and we know that's not what's going to solve the problem.

我们知道这是解决不了问题的。

Because it's not a communication problem,

因为这不是一个沟通的问题，

it's a cognitive bandwidth problem.

而是一个知识范围的问题。

So if the problem is one of cognitive bandwidth,

所以如果问题是知识范围，

well, adding more communication to people

那，给人们加上更多的沟通

is not going to be what's going to solve it.

是解决不了问题的。

What we are going to need instead is to have other technologies

我们需要的是不同的科技

that help us deal with some of the communication

来帮助分摊一些

that we are overloaded with.

我们已经超负荷的沟通。

Think of, like, a little avatar,

想象一下，比如，一个网络虚拟人，

a software agent,

一个软件代理，

a digital Jiminy Cricket --

一个电子杰明尼蟋蟀－

(Laughter)

（笑声）

that basically is able to answer things on your behalf.

基本上可以替你回答问题。

And if we had that technology,

如果我们有了那种科技，

we would be able to offload some of the communication

我们就可以卸下一些沟通的负担

and help, maybe, make better decisions or decisions at a larger scale.

也许可以帮助我们做更好的决定 或是范围更广的决定。

And the thing is that the idea of software agents is also not new.

而且软件代理的想法也不是新的。

We already use them all the time.

我们已经一直在使用它们了。

We use software agents

我们用软件代理

to choose the way that we're going to drive to a certain location,

来选择我们开车去某地该怎么走，

the music that we're going to listen to

我们想听什么音乐

or to get suggestions for the next books that we should read.

或者建议我们接下来读什么书。

So there is an obvious idea in the 21st century

所以在二十一世纪有个显而易见的想法

that was as obvious as the idea

就跟雅卡尔时代把蒸汽发动机和 织布机结合在一起的想法

of putting together a steam engine with a loom at the time of Jacquard.

一样显而易见。

And that idea is combining direct democracy with software agents.

这个想法就是把直接民主和 软件代理结合在一起。

Imagine, for a second, a world

试想一下，在一个世界里

in which, instead of having a representative that represents you

没有一个代表来代表你

and millions of other people,

和一百多万其他人，

you can have a representative that represents only you,

你可以有一个代表只代表你自己，

with your nuanced political views --

带着你的细微详尽的政治看法－

that weird combination of libertarian and liberal

那些自由意志派和自由派的奇特结合

and maybe a little bit conservative on some issues

或许对某些问题看法有点小保守

and maybe very progressive on others.

或许对其他问题看法又非常超前。

Politicians nowadays are packages, and they're full of compromises.

现在的政客都是打包的，他们充满了妥协。

But you might have someone that can represent only you,

但你可以有人只代表你一个人，

if you are willing to give up the idea

如果你不坚持那个代表

that that representative is a human.

一定是个人的话。

If that representative is a software agent,

如果那个代表是个软件代理，

we could have a senate that has as many senators as we have citizens.

我们的参议院里面的参议员 可以和我们的公民一样多。

And those senators are going to be able to read every bill

那些参议员有能力读每个法案

and they're going to be able to vote on each one of them.

他们可以对每个法案投票。

So there's an obvious idea that maybe we want to consider.

所以这是个很明显的想法我们可以考虑。

But I understand that in this day and age,

但我明白在这个时代，

this idea might be quite scary.

这个想法可能会显得很恐怖。

In fact, thinking of a robot coming from the future

实际上，想想一个来自未来的机器人

to help us run our governments

帮助我们管理政府

sounds terrifying.

听起来就很可怕。

But we've been there before.

但其实我们已经领略过了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And actually he was quite a nice guy.

实际上他人还不错的。

So what would the Jacquard loom version of this idea look like?

那雅卡尔织布机版本的 这个想法会是什么样呢？

It would be a very simple system.

其实这个系统会很简单。

Imagine a system that you log in and you create your avatar,

想象一个系统里你登录进去 然后你建虚拟身份，

and then you're going to start training your avatar.

然后你开始训练你的虚拟身份。

你可以给它 提供你的读书习惯，

So you can provide your avatar with your reading habits,

or connect it to your social media,

或者把它连到你的社交媒体上，

or you can connect it to other data,

或者把它连到其他数据上，

for example by taking psychological tests.

比如说做心理测试题。

And the nice thing about this is that there's no deception.

这样的好处在于一切都很真实。

You are not providing data to communicate with your friends and family

你没有和你的朋友家人沟通时提供数据

that then gets used in a political system.

然后被政治系统利用。

You are providing data to a system that is designed to be used

你在给一个系统提供数据

to make political decisions on your behalf.

用来代表你自己做政治决定。

Then you take that data and you choose a training algorithm,

你然后拿着这数据再挑选一个培训程序，

because it's an open marketplace

因为这是个开放式市场

in which different people can submit different algorithms

不同的人可以提供不同的程序

to predict how you're going to vote, based on the data you have provided.

根据你提供的数据来预测你如何投票。

And the system is open, so nobody controls the algorithms;

因为系统是开放式的， 所以没有人能控制程序；

there are algorithms that become more popular

有的程序会变得很流行

and others that become less popular.

有些会渐被遗忘。

最后，你可以审计这个系统。

Eventually, you can audit the system.

你可以看你虚拟身份做的如何。

You can see how your avatar is working.

如果你喜欢，你可以留着它自动驾驶。

If you like it, you can leave it on autopilot.

如果你想多些控制权，

If you want to be a little more controlling,

你可以选择每次它们做决定前

you can actually choose that they ask you

都来先问你，

every time they're going to make a decision,

或者你可以选择两者之间任何一点。

or you can be anywhere in between.

我们极少实施民主的原因之一

One of the reasons why we use democracy so little

也许是因为民主有个很烂的用户界面。

may be because democracy has a very bad user interface.

And if we improve the user interface of democracy,

如果我们能改善民主的用户界面，

we might be able to use it more.

我们或许能用的多一些。

Of course, there's a lot of questions that you might have.

当然，你可能会有很多问题。

Well, how do you train these avatars?

嗯，你怎么培训这些虚拟身份？

How do you keep the data secure?

你如何保护数据？

How do you keep the systems distributed and auditable?

你如何让系统保持分散并且可以审计？

How about my grandmother, who's 80 years old

还有我的八十岁的外婆

and doesn't know how to use the internet?

她不会上网怎么办？

Trust me, I've heard them all.

相信我，这些问题我全听到过。

So when you think about an idea like this, you have to beware of pessimists

所以当你考虑这样的想法， 你得小心那些悲观者

because they are known to have a problem for every solution.

因为他们出了名的没有问题创造问题。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So I want to invite you to think about the bigger ideas.

所以我鼓励你们思考更大的想法。

The questions I just showed you are little ideas

我刚刚提的那些问题都是小想法

because they are questions about how this would not work.

因为它们都是关于这个想法怎么会砸锅。

The big ideas are ideas of:

真正的大想法是：

What else can you do with this

这个想法如果成功了的话

if this would happen to work?

还适合做别的什么？

And one of those ideas is, well, who writes the laws?

还有一个大想法是， 嗯，谁来负责立法？

In the beginning, we could have the avatars that we already have,

一开始的时候， 我们可以用我们已经有了的虚拟身份，

voting on laws that are written by the senators or politicians

来投选现有的由参议员或政客

that we already have.

写的法案。

But if this were to work,

但如果这个想法成功了的话，

you could write an algorithm

你可以写个程序

that could try to write a law

来撰写一个法案

that would get a certain percentage of approval,

然后得到一定百分比的批准，

and you could reverse the process.

你可以翻转这个流程。

Now, you might think that this idea is ludicrous and we should not do it,

你可能在想这个主意太荒谬了，我们不该去做，

but you cannot deny that it's an idea that is only possible

但你不能否认当直接民主和软件代理成为一个

in a world in which direct democracy and software agents

可行的参与方式的时候，

are a viable form of participation.

这个想法就变得可能。

So how do we start the revolution?

那我们怎样才能开始这场革命呢？

We don't start this revolution with picket fences or protests

我们不能从篱栅桩和游行开始

or by demanding our current politicians to be changed into robots.

或者强求用机器人替代现在的政客。

That's not going to work.

那是没法成功的。

This is much more simple,

这是更简单，

much slower

更缓慢

and much more humble.

也更加谦逊。

We start this revolution by creating simple systems like this in grad schools,

我们通过在研究生院，在图书馆，

在非盈利组织建立象这样的简单的系统， 来开始这场革命。

in libraries, in nonprofits.

And we try to figure out all of those little questions

然后我们想办法解决那些小问题，

and those little problems

和那些小挑战，

我们需要克服它们， 好让这个想法成为现实，

that we're going to have to figure out to make this idea something viable,

to make this idea something that we can trust.

好让这个想法变得可信。

And as we create those systems that have a hundred people, a thousand people,

当我们建立起这些系统供几百人， 几千人，

以及几十万人不以政治挂钩的形式 投票的时候，

a hundred thousand people voting in ways that are not politically binding,

we're going to develop trust in this idea,

我们就会对这个想法产生信任，

the world is going to change,

这个世界会变化，

and those that are as little as my daughter is right now

那些现在象我女儿一样小的

are going to grow up.

会慢慢长大。

And by the time my daughter is my age,

当我的女儿长到我现在的年纪时，

maybe this idea, that I know today is very crazy,

也许这个想法， 我知道今天听起来是很疯狂，

might not be crazy to her and to her friends.

也许对她和她的朋友们就 不一定很疯狂。

And at that point,

到了那个时候，

we will be at the end of our history,

我们会到达我们历史的终点，

but they will be at the beginning of theirs.

但她们才开始她们的。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）