How algorithms shape our world | Kevin Slavin

484,251 views ・ 2011-07-21

TED


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Prevoditelj: Matija Stepic Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
This is a photograph
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Ovo je fotografija
00:17
by the artist Michael Najjar,
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od umjetnika Michaela Najjara,
00:19
and it's real,
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i ona je stvarna,
00:21
in the sense that he went there to Argentina
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u smislu da je otišao u Argentinu
00:23
to take the photo.
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kako bi uslikao ovu fotografiju.
00:25
But it's also a fiction. There's a lot of work that went into it after that.
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No ona je i fikcija. Mnogo posla je još uloženo nakon toga.
00:28
And what he's done
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A ono što je učinio
00:30
is he's actually reshaped, digitally,
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je da je zapravo preoblikovao, digitalno,
00:32
all of the contours of the mountains
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sve konture planina
00:34
to follow the vicissitudes of the Dow Jones index.
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kako bi pratio promjene Dow Jones indeksa.
00:37
So what you see,
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Stoga ono što vidite,
00:39
that precipice, that high precipice with the valley,
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da litica, da je visoka litica u dolini,
00:41
is the 2008 financial crisis.
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financijska kriza 2008.
00:43
The photo was made
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Fotografija je uslikana
00:45
when we were deep in the valley over there.
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kada smo bili duboko u dolini ondje.
00:47
I don't know where we are now.
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Neznam gdje smo sada.
00:49
This is the Hang Seng index
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Ovo je Hang Seng index
00:51
for Hong Kong.
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za Hong Kong.
00:53
And similar topography.
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I slična topografija.
00:55
I wonder why.
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Pitam se zašto.
00:57
And this is art. This is metaphor.
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Ovo je umjetnost. Ovo je metafora.
01:00
But I think the point is
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No mislim da je poanta u
01:02
that this is metaphor with teeth,
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tome da su ovo metafore sa zubima.
01:04
and it's with those teeth that I want to propose today
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I s ovim zubima želim danas predložiti
01:07
that we rethink a little bit
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da promislimo malo
01:09
about the role of contemporary math --
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o ulozi suvremene matematike --
01:12
not just financial math, but math in general.
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ne samo financijske matematike, već matematike općenito.
01:15
That its transition
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Da je ona tranzicija
01:17
from being something that we extract and derive from the world
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od nečega što smo istisnuli i izvukli iz svijeta
01:20
to something that actually starts to shape it --
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do nečega što zapravo počinje oblikovati
01:23
the world around us and the world inside us.
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svijet oko nas i svijet unutar nas.
01:26
And it's specifically algorithms,
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To se posebno odnosi na algoritme,
01:28
which are basically the math
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koji su zapravo matematika
01:30
that computers use to decide stuff.
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koju računala koriste kako bi odlučili o nečemu.
01:33
They acquire the sensibility of truth
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Oni stječu senzibilitet istine,
01:35
because they repeat over and over again,
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jer se iznova ponavljaju.
01:37
and they ossify and calcify,
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Oni se okoštavaju i kalcificiraju,
01:40
and they become real.
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te postaju stvarni.
01:42
And I was thinking about this, of all places,
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O ovome sam razmišljao, od svih mjesta,
01:45
on a transatlantic flight a couple of years ago,
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na prekoatlantskom letu prije nekoliko godina,
01:48
because I happened to be seated
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zato jer sam slučajno dobio mjesto
01:50
next to a Hungarian physicist about my age
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kraj mađarskog fizičara mojih godina
01:52
and we were talking
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i pričali smo o
01:54
about what life was like during the Cold War
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tome kakav je bio život tokom hladnog rata
01:56
for physicists in Hungary.
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za fizičare u Mađarskoj.
01:58
And I said, "So what were you doing?"
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Pitao sam, "I što ste radili?"
02:00
And he said, "Well we were mostly breaking stealth."
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On odgovara, "Više manje smo razbijali nevidljivost."
02:02
And I said, "That's a good job. That's interesting.
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Odgovaram, "To je dobar posao. To je zanimljivo.
02:04
How does that work?"
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Kako to funkcionira?"
02:06
And to understand that,
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Da biste to razumjeli,
02:08
you have to understand a little bit about how stealth works.
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morate malo razumjeti kako nevidljivost funkcionira.
02:11
And so -- this is an over-simplification --
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I tako -- ovo je pojednostavljenje --
02:14
but basically, it's not like
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no u osnovi, nije samo da
02:16
you can just pass a radar signal
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može proći radarski signal
02:18
right through 156 tons of steel in the sky.
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kroz 156 tona čelika u zraku.
02:21
It's not just going to disappear.
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Neće samo odjedanput nestati.
02:24
But if you can take this big, massive thing,
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No ukoliko možete uzeti ovu veliku, masivnu stvar,
02:27
and you could turn it into
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i možete ju pretvoriti u
02:30
a million little things --
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milijun malih stvari --
02:32
something like a flock of birds --
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nešto kao jato ptica --
02:34
well then the radar that's looking for that
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onda zapravo radar koji to traži
02:36
has to be able to see
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mora biti u mogućnosti da vidi
02:38
every flock of birds in the sky.
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sva jata ptica u zraku.
02:40
And if you're a radar, that's a really bad job.
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A ukoliko ste radar, to je stvarno težak posao.
02:44
And he said, "Yeah." He said, "But that's if you're a radar.
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On odgovara, "Da." Kaže on, "No to ako si radar."
02:47
So we didn't use a radar;
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Stoga nismo koristili radar;
02:49
we built a black box that was looking for electrical signals,
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izradili smo crnu kutiju koja traži električne signale,
02:52
electronic communication.
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elektroničku komunikaciju.
02:55
And whenever we saw a flock of birds that had electronic communication,
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I svaki put kada smo vidjeli jato ptica koje ima elektroničku komunikaciju,
02:58
we thought, 'Probably has something to do with the Americans.'"
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mislili smo kako vjerovatno ima nekakve veze s amerikancima."
03:01
And I said, "Yeah.
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"Da" kažem ja.
03:03
That's good.
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To je dobro.
03:05
So you've effectively negated
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Znači vi ste efikasno negirali
03:07
60 years of aeronautic research.
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60 godina aeronautičkog istraživanja.
03:09
What's your act two?
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Koji vam je drugi čin?
03:11
What do you do when you grow up?"
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Što radite nakon što odrastete?"
03:13
And he said,
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Odgovara on,
03:15
"Well, financial services."
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"Pa, financijske usluge."
03:17
And I said, "Oh."
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"Oh," kažem ja.
03:19
Because those had been in the news lately.
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Zato jer toga vidimo po vijestima u zadnje vrijeme.
03:22
And I said, "How does that work?"
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Kažem ja, "I kako to funkcionira?"
03:24
And he said, "Well there's 2,000 physicists on Wall Street now,
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Odgovara on, "Trenutno je 2.000 fizičara na Wall Street-u,
03:26
and I'm one of them."
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a ja sam jedan od njih."
03:28
And I said, "What's the black box for Wall Street?"
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Kažem ja, "I što je crna kutija za Wall Street?"
03:31
And he said, "It's funny you ask that,
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Odgovara on, "Smiješno što me tako pitaš,
03:33
because it's actually called black box trading.
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jer se zapravo zove trgovanje crnom kutijom.
03:36
And it's also sometimes called algo trading,
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Nekada se još naziva algo trgovanje,
03:38
algorithmic trading."
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algoritamsko trgovanje."
03:41
And algorithmic trading evolved in part
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I algoritamsko trgovanje je djelomično evoluiralo
03:44
because institutional traders have the same problems
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iz razloga što su institucionalni 'trejderi' imali iste probleme
03:47
that the United States Air Force had,
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koje je imalo Američko zrakoplovstvo,
03:50
which is that they're moving these positions --
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gdje oni zapravo premještaju ove pozicije --
03:53
whether it's Proctor & Gamble or Accenture, whatever --
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nebitno radi li se o Proctor & Gamble-u ili Accenturu --
03:55
they're moving a million shares of something
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oni premještaju milijun udjela nečega
03:57
through the market.
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kroz tržište.
03:59
And if they do that all at once,
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Te ukoliko sve to naprave odjednom,
04:01
it's like playing poker and going all in right away.
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to je kao da igrate poker i odmah sve ulažete.
04:03
You just tip your hand.
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Zapravo ste pokazali svoje karte.
04:05
And so they have to find a way --
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Stoga moraju pronaći način --
04:07
and they use algorithms to do this --
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i koriste algoritme kako bi to učinili --
04:09
to break up that big thing
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da razbijete tu veliku stvar
04:11
into a million little transactions.
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na milijun malih transakcija.
04:13
And the magic and the horror of that
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Magija i horor iza toga
04:15
is that the same math
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je da ista ta matematika
04:17
that you use to break up the big thing
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koju koristite da razbijete tu veliku stvar
04:19
into a million little things
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na milijun malih stvari
04:21
can be used to find a million little things
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može se koristiti za pronalaženje milijuna malih stvari
04:23
and sew them back together
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koje spajate natrag zajedno
04:25
and figure out what's actually happening in the market.
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i odgonetnete što se zapravo događa na tržištu.
04:27
So if you need to have some image
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Stoga ako trebate imati neku sliku
04:29
of what's happening in the stock market right now,
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o tome što se trenutno događa na tržištu vrijednosnica,
04:32
what you can picture is a bunch of algorithms
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ono što možete zamisliti je hrpa algoritama
04:34
that are basically programmed to hide,
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koji su u biti programirani da se sakriju,
04:37
and a bunch of algorithms that are programmed to go find them and act.
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i hrpa algoritama koja je programirana da ih pronađe i djeluje.
04:40
And all of that's great, and it's fine.
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I to je sve super, u redu je.
04:43
And that's 70 percent
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I to se odnosi na 70 posto
04:45
of the United States stock market,
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tržišta vrijednosnica u Sjedinjenim Državama.
04:47
70 percent of the operating system
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70 posto od operativnog sustava
04:49
formerly known as your pension,
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poznatog kao vaša mirovina,
04:52
your mortgage.
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vaša hipoteka.
04:55
And what could go wrong?
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Što može poći po zlu?
04:57
What could go wrong
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Ono što može poći po zlu
04:59
is that a year ago,
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je da prije godinu dana,
05:01
nine percent of the entire market just disappears in five minutes,
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devet posto cijelog tržišta samo je nestalo u pet minuta,
05:04
and they called it the Flash Crash of 2:45.
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i nazivaju ga 'flash crash' od 2:45
05:07
All of a sudden, nine percent just goes away,
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Odjednom, devet posto samo nestane,
05:10
and nobody to this day
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i nitko do danas
05:12
can even agree on what happened
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se ne može složiti što se zapravo dogodilo,
05:14
because nobody ordered it, nobody asked for it.
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jer nitko nije to naručio, nitko nije zatražio.
05:17
Nobody had any control over what was actually happening.
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Nitko nije imaju bilo kakvu kontrolu nad onime što se zapravo događalo.
05:20
All they had
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Sve što su imali
05:22
was just a monitor in front of them
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je monitor ispred njih
05:24
that had the numbers on it
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koji je prikazivao brojeve
05:26
and just a red button
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i crveno dugme
05:28
that said, "Stop."
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na kojemu piše, "Stop."
05:30
And that's the thing,
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O tome se radi,
05:32
is that we're writing things,
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da pišemo stvari,
05:34
we're writing these things that we can no longer read.
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pišemo te stvari koje više ne možemo pročitati.
05:37
And we've rendered something
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Napravili smo nešto
05:39
illegible,
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nečitko.
05:41
and we've lost the sense
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I izgubili smo osjećaj
05:44
of what's actually happening
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što se zapravo događa
05:46
in this world that we've made.
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u ovome svijetu koji smo stvorili.
05:48
And we're starting to make our way.
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Počinjemo stvarati svoj put.
05:50
There's a company in Boston called Nanex,
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Postoji kompanija u Bostonu pod imenom Nanex,
05:53
and they use math and magic
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koja koristi matematiku i magiju
05:55
and I don't know what,
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i tko zna što drugo,
05:57
and they reach into all the market data
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posežu za svim podacima s tržišta
05:59
and they find, actually sometimes, some of these algorithms.
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i pronađu, nekada, neke od ovih algoritama.
06:02
And when they find them they pull them out
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I kada ih nađu izvuku ih van
06:05
and they pin them to the wall like butterflies.
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i zakvače ih za zid kao leptire.
06:08
And they do what we've always done
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I učine, ono što uvijek činimo
06:10
when confronted with huge amounts of data that we don't understand --
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kad se suočavamo s velikom količinom podataka koju ne razumijemo --
06:13
which is that they give them a name
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a to je da im daju ime
06:15
and a story.
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i priču.
06:17
So this is one that they found,
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Ovo je jedan kojeg su našli,
06:19
they called the Knife,
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zovu ga Nož,
06:23
the Carnival,
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Karneval,
06:25
the Boston Shuffler,
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Bostonski prevrtljivac,
06:29
Twilight.
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Sumrak.
06:31
And the gag is
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I problem je taj,
06:33
that, of course, these aren't just running through the market.
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naravno, da ovi ne prolaze samo kroz tržište.
06:36
You can find these kinds of things wherever you look,
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Možete naći ovakve stvari gdjegod pogledate,
06:39
once you learn how to look for them.
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jednom kad naučite kako ih pronaći.
06:41
You can find it here: this book about flies
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Možete ih naći ovdje: na ovoj knjizi o muhama
06:44
that you may have been looking at on Amazon.
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koju ste možda tražili na Amazonu.
06:46
You may have noticed it
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Možda ste primjetili
06:48
when its price started at 1.7 million dollars.
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kada joj je početna cijena bila 1,7 milijuna dolara.
06:50
It's out of print -- still ...
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Još uvijek je izvan tiska --
06:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:54
If you had bought it at 1.7, it would have been a bargain.
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Da ste ju kupili za 1,7, to bi bilo jeftino.
06:57
A few hours later, it had gone up
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Nekoliko sati poslije, porasla je
06:59
to 23.6 million dollars,
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na 23,6 milijuna dolara,
07:01
plus shipping and handling.
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plus troškovi transporta i rukovanja.
07:03
And the question is:
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I pitanje je:
07:05
Nobody was buying or selling anything; what was happening?
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Nitko nije kupovao ni prodavao ništa; što se događalo?
07:07
And you see this behavior on Amazon
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Vidite ovo ponašanje na Amazonu
07:09
as surely as you see it on Wall Street.
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jednako kao što vidite na Wall Streetu.
07:11
And when you see this kind of behavior,
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I kada vidite ovakvo ponašanje,
07:13
what you see is the evidence
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vidite dokaz
07:15
of algorithms in conflict,
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algoritama u konfliktu,
07:17
algorithms locked in loops with each other,
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algoritama zatvorenih u petlje jedne s drugima,
07:19
without any human oversight,
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bez ljudskog nadzora,
07:21
without any adult supervision
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bez nadzora odrasle osobe
07:24
to say, "Actually, 1.7 million is plenty."
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koja kaže, "Zapravo, 1,7 milijuna je puno."
07:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:30
And as with Amazon, so it is with Netflix.
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Kao i s Amazonom, tako je i s Netflixom.
07:33
And so Netflix has gone through
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Netflix je prošao kroz
07:35
several different algorithms over the years.
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nekoliko različitih algoritama tokom godina.
07:37
They started with Cinematch, and they've tried a bunch of others --
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Počeli su s 'Cinematch', a postoje i mnogi drugi.
07:40
there's Dinosaur Planet; there's Gravity.
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Imate Dinaosaurov planet, tu je Gravitacija.
07:42
They're using Pragmatic Chaos now.
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Trenutno koriste Pragmatični Kaos.
07:44
Pragmatic Chaos is, like all of Netflix algorithms,
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Pragmatični Kaos, kao i svi Netflixovi algoritmi,
07:46
trying to do the same thing.
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pokušava činiti istu stvar.
07:48
It's trying to get a grasp on you,
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Pokušava vas dokučiti,
07:50
on the firmware inside the human skull,
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sistem unutar ljudske lubanje,
07:52
so that it can recommend what movie
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tako da bi mogao preporučiti koji film
07:54
you might want to watch next --
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možda želite gledati --
07:56
which is a very, very difficult problem.
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što je vrlo, vrlo težak problem.
07:59
But the difficulty of the problem
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No težina problema
08:01
and the fact that we don't really quite have it down,
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i činjenica da zapravo još nismo na čisto,
08:04
it doesn't take away
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ne osporava
08:06
from the effects Pragmatic Chaos has.
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efekte koje ima Pragmatični Kaos.
08:08
Pragmatic Chaos, like all Netflix algorithms,
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Pragmatični Kaos, kao svi Netflixovi algoritmi,
08:11
determines, in the end,
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određuje, u konačnici,
08:13
60 percent
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60 posto
08:15
of what movies end up being rented.
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filmova koji se iznajme.
08:17
So one piece of code
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Stoga jedan komad koda
08:19
with one idea about you
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s jednom idejom o vama
08:22
is responsible for 60 percent of those movies.
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je odgovoran za 60 posto tih filmova.
08:25
But what if you could rate those movies
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No što ukoliko biste mogli ocjeniti te filmove
08:27
before they get made?
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prije nego što se naprave?
08:29
Wouldn't that be handy?
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Ne bi li to bilo zgodno?
08:31
Well, a few data scientists from the U.K. are in Hollywood,
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Pa, nekolicina podatkovnih znanstvenika iz U.K. su u Hollywoodu,
08:34
and they have "story algorithms" --
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i imaju algoritme priče --
08:36
a company called Epagogix.
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kompanija pod imenom Epagogix.
08:38
And you can run your script through there,
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I možete provući svoj scenario ovdje,
08:41
and they can tell you, quantifiably,
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i mogu vam reći, kvantificirano,
08:43
that that's a 30 million dollar movie
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da je to film od 30 milijuna dolara
08:45
or a 200 million dollar movie.
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ili film od 200 milijuna dolara.
08:47
And the thing is, is that this isn't Google.
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A radi se o tome da ovo nije Google.
08:49
This isn't information.
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Ovo nije informacija.
08:51
These aren't financial stats; this is culture.
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Ovo nisu financijski pokazatelji; ovo je kultura.
08:53
And what you see here,
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Ono što ovdje vidite,
08:55
or what you don't really see normally,
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ili što normalno ne vidite,
08:57
is that these are the physics of culture.
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je da je ovo fizika kulture.
09:01
And if these algorithms,
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I ukoliko se ovi algoritmi,
09:03
like the algorithms on Wall Street,
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kao algoritmi na Wall Street-u,
09:05
just crashed one day and went awry,
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jednoga dana sruše i odu naopako,
09:08
how would we know?
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kako bismo znali,
09:10
What would it look like?
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kako bi to izgledalo?
09:12
And they're in your house. They're in your house.
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I oni su u vašim kućama. Oni su u vašim kućama.
09:15
These are two algorithms competing for your living room.
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Ovo su dva algoritma koji se natječu za vaš dnevni boravak.
09:17
These are two different cleaning robots
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Ovo su dva različita robota spremača
09:19
that have very different ideas about what clean means.
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koji imaju vrlo različite ideje o tome što znači čisto.
09:22
And you can see it
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I možete to vidjeti
09:24
if you slow it down and attach lights to them,
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ukoliko ih usporite i zakvačite svijetlo na njih.
09:27
and they're sort of like secret architects in your bedroom.
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I oni su kao tajni arhitekti u vašoj spavačoj sobi.
09:30
And the idea that architecture itself
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Te ideja da je arhitektura sama po sebi
09:33
is somehow subject to algorithmic optimization
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na neki način subjekt algoritamske optimizacije
09:35
is not far-fetched.
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nije daleka.
09:37
It's super-real and it's happening around you.
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To je super stvarno i događa se oko vas.
09:40
You feel it most
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Najviše možete osjetiti
09:42
when you're in a sealed metal box,
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kada ste u zatvorenoj metalnoj kutiji,
09:44
a new-style elevator;
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dizala novog stila,
09:46
they're called destination-control elevators.
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nazivaju se dizala kontrole destinacije.
09:48
These are the ones where you have to press what floor you're going to go to
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To su ona na kojima morate prisitsnuti na koji kat želite ići
09:51
before you get in the elevator.
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prije nego uđete u dizalo.
09:53
And it uses what's called a bin-packing algorithm.
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I koristi tzv. algoritam pakiranja kutije.
09:55
So none of this mishegas
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Stoga ništa od ovih besmislica
09:57
of letting everybody go into whatever car they want.
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dopuštanja svima ulazak u vozilo koje žele.
09:59
Everybody who wants to go to the 10th floor goes into car two,
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Svatko to želi ići na 10 kat ulazi u vozilo dva,
10:01
and everybody who wants to go to the third floor goes into car five.
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a svatko tko želi ići na treći kat ulazi u vozilo pet.
10:04
And the problem with that
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A problem s time je
10:06
is that people freak out.
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da ljudi polude.
10:08
People panic.
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Ljudi paniče.
10:10
And you see why. You see why.
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I možete vidjeti zašto. Vidite zašto.
10:12
It's because the elevator
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To je zato jer dizalu
10:14
is missing some important instrumentation, like the buttons.
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nedostaju neki važni instrumenti, kao dugmad.
10:17
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:19
Like the things that people use.
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Nešto što ljudi koriste.
10:21
All it has
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Jedino što ima
10:23
is just the number that moves up or down
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je broj koji se kreće gore ili dolje
10:26
and that red button that says, "Stop."
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i crveno dugme koje kaže, "Stop."
10:29
And this is what we're designing for.
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I zbog toga dizajniramo.
10:32
We're designing
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Mi dizajniramo
10:34
for this machine dialect.
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za ovaj dijalekt strojeva.
10:36
And how far can you take that? How far can you take it?
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I koliko daleko možete ići s time? Koliko daleko možete otići?
10:39
You can take it really, really far.
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Možete otići jako, jako daleko.
10:41
So let me take it back to Wall Street.
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Vratimo se nazad na Wall Street.
10:45
Because the algorithms of Wall Street
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Jer algoritmi s Wall Streeta
10:47
are dependent on one quality above all else,
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ovisni su o jednoj kvaliteti iznad svega,
10:50
which is speed.
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a to je brzina.
10:52
And they operate on milliseconds and microseconds.
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I oni rade na milisekundama i mikrosekundama.
10:55
And just to give you a sense of what microseconds are,
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Da dobijete osjećaj što su mikrosekunde,
10:57
it takes you 500,000 microseconds
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potrebno je 500.000 mikrosekundi
10:59
just to click a mouse.
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kako bi kliknuli miša.
11:01
But if you're a Wall Street algorithm
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No ako ste algoritam s Wall Street-a
11:03
and you're five microseconds behind,
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i zaostajete pet mikrosekundi,
11:05
you're a loser.
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vi ste gubitnik.
11:07
So if you were an algorithm,
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Stoga da ste algoritam,
11:09
you'd look for an architect like the one that I met in Frankfurt
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potražili bi arhitekta kao onoga što sam sreo u Frankfurtu
11:12
who was hollowing out a skyscraper --
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koji je ispražnjavao neboder --
11:14
throwing out all the furniture, all the infrastructure for human use,
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izbacujući sav namještaj, svu infrastrukturu potrebnu čovjeku,
11:17
and just running steel on the floors
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i samo ostavljajući čelik na podovima
11:20
to get ready for the stacks of servers to go in --
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spremajući ga za postavljanje servera --
11:23
all so an algorithm
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sve kako bi algoritam
11:25
could get close to the Internet.
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bio bliže Internetu.
11:28
And you think of the Internet as this kind of distributed system.
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A vi zamišljate Internet kao sistem distribucije.
11:31
And of course, it is, but it's distributed from places.
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Naravno, on to je, ali se distribuira s određenog mjesta.
11:34
In New York, this is where it's distributed from:
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U New Yorku, odavde se distribuira:
11:36
the Carrier Hotel
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Carrier Hotel
11:38
located on Hudson Street.
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smješten u Hudson ulici.
11:40
And this is really where the wires come right up into the city.
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I ovdje je zapravo mjesto gdje žice izlaze van u grad.
11:43
And the reality is that the further away you are from that,
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I stvarnost je ta da što ste dalje od toga,
11:47
you're a few microseconds behind every time.
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vi ste nekoliko mikrosekundi iza svaki put.
11:49
These guys down on Wall Street,
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Ovi momci dolje s Wall Streeta,
11:51
Marco Polo and Cherokee Nation,
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Marko Polo i Cherokee Nacija,
11:53
they're eight microseconds
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oni su osam mikrosekundi
11:55
behind all these guys
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iza svih ovih drugih
11:57
going into the empty buildings being hollowed out
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koji se nalaze u ovim praznim ispraznjenim zgradama
12:01
up around the Carrier Hotel.
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oko Carrier Hotela.
12:03
And that's going to keep happening.
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I to će se nastaviti događati.
12:06
We're going to keep hollowing them out,
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Nastavit ćemo ih ispražnjavati
12:08
because you, inch for inch
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zato jer, inč po inč
12:11
and pound for pound and dollar for dollar,
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i funtu za funtu i dolar za dolar,
12:14
none of you could squeeze revenue out of that space
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nitko od vas ne može iscjediti prihod iz prostora
12:17
like the Boston Shuffler could.
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kao što to može Bostonski Prevrtljivac.
12:20
But if you zoom out,
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No ako odzumirate
12:22
if you zoom out,
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ako odzumirate,
12:24
you would see an 825-mile trench
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vidjeli bi rov od 825 milja
12:28
between New York City and Chicago
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između New Yorka i Chicaga
12:30
that's been built over the last few years
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koji se gradi zadnjih nekoliko godina
12:32
by a company called Spread Networks.
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od kompanije Spread Networks.
12:35
This is a fiber optic cable
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Ovo je svjetlosni optički kabel
12:37
that was laid between those two cities
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koji je položen između ova dva grada
12:39
to just be able to traffic one signal
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kako bi bili u mogućnosti poslati samo jedan signal
12:42
37 times faster than you can click a mouse --
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37 puta brže nego što možete kliknuti mišem --
12:45
just for these algorithms,
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samo za ove algoritme,
12:48
just for the Carnival and the Knife.
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samo za Karneval i Nož.
12:51
And when you think about this,
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I kada razmislite o ovome,
12:53
that we're running through the United States
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da prolazimo kroz Sjedinjene Države
12:55
with dynamite and rock saws
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s dinamitom i pilama za kamen
12:58
so that an algorithm can close the deal
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kako bi algoritam mogao zatvoriti poziciju
13:00
three microseconds faster,
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tri mikrosekunde brže,
13:03
all for a communications framework
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sve za komunikacijski sistem
13:05
that no human will ever know,
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za koji čovjek nikad neće znati,
13:09
that's a kind of manifest destiny;
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to je kao manifest sudbine
13:12
and we'll always look for a new frontier.
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i uvijek će tražiti nove granice.
13:15
Unfortunately, we have our work cut out for us.
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Nažalost, mi smo izostavljeni iz ovog posla.
13:18
This is just theoretical.
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Ovo je samo teoretski.
13:20
This is some mathematicians at MIT.
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Ovo su neki matematičari sa MIT-a.
13:22
And the truth is I don't really understand
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Istina je da nažalost ne razumijem
13:24
a lot of what they're talking about.
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mnogo toga o čemu pričaju.
13:26
It involves light cones and quantum entanglement,
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Uključuje svjetlosni stožac i kvantnu zapreku,
13:29
and I don't really understand any of that.
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i ne razumijem ništa od toga.
13:31
But I can read this map,
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Ali mogu čitati ovu kartu.
13:33
and what this map says
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A ono o čemu ova karta govori je da
13:35
is that, if you're trying to make money on the markets where the red dots are,
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ukoliko želite zaraditi novac na tržištima gdje se nalaze crvene točke,
13:38
that's where people are, where the cities are,
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tamo gdje se nalaze ljudi, gradovi,
13:40
you're going to have to put the servers where the blue dots are
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morat ćete postaviti servere tamo gdje se nalaze plave točke
13:43
to do that most effectively.
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kako bi bili što efikasniji.
13:45
And the thing that you might have noticed about those blue dots
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Ono što ste mogli zamjetiti na plavim točkama
13:48
is that a lot of them are in the middle of the ocean.
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je da se mnogo njih nalaze usred oceana.
13:51
So that's what we'll do: we'll build bubbles or something,
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I to je što ćemo napraviti, sagradit ćemo balone ili nešto drugo,
13:54
or platforms.
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ili platforme.
13:56
We'll actually part the water
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Mi ćemo zapravo razdvajati vodu
13:58
to pull money out of the air,
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kako bi izvukli novac iz zraka
14:00
because it's a bright future
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zato jer je to sjajna budućnost
14:02
if you're an algorithm.
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ukoliko ste algoritam.
14:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:06
And it's not the money that's so interesting actually.
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I ne radi se o novcu da je toliko interesantan zapravo.
14:09
It's what the money motivates,
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Radi se o tome što novac motivira.
14:11
that we're actually terraforming
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Mi zapravo teraformiramo
14:13
the Earth itself
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samu Zemlju
14:15
with this kind of algorithmic efficiency.
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s ovom algoritamskom efikasnošću.
14:17
And in that light,
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U tome svjetlu,
14:19
you go back
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vratite se nazad
14:21
and you look at Michael Najjar's photographs,
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i pogledajte fotografije Michaela Najjara,
14:23
and you realize that they're not metaphor, they're prophecy.
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i shvatite da one nisu metafora, one su proročanstvo.
14:26
They're prophecy
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One su proročanstvo
14:28
for the kind of seismic, terrestrial effects
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za ove seizmičke, zemaljske učinke
14:32
of the math that we're making.
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matematike koju stvaramo.
14:34
And the landscape was always made
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I pejzaž je uvijek bio načinjen
14:37
by this sort of weird, uneasy collaboration
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od ove čudne, nelagodne suradnje
14:40
between nature and man.
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između prirode i čovjeka.
14:43
But now there's this third co-evolutionary force: algorithms --
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No sada imamo i treću ko-evolucijsku silu: algoritme --
14:46
the Boston Shuffler, the Carnival.
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Bostonskog Prevrtljivca, Karneval.
14:49
And we will have to understand those as nature,
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I morat ćemo ih shvatiti kao prirodu.
14:52
and in a way, they are.
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Na neki način, oni to i jesu.
14:54
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
14:56
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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