Can you solve the wizard standoff riddle? - Dan Finkel

翻译人员: Lipeng Chen

You’ve been chosen as a champion to represent your wizarding house

你被选为勇士代表你的巫师学院，

in a deadly duel against two rival magic schools.

将在死亡决斗中， 迎战两个死对头魔法学校。

Your opponents are fearsome.

你的对手都很可拍。

From the Newt-niz school,

来自Newt-niz学校的

a powerful sorcerer wields a wand that can turn people into fish,

强力男巫可以用魔杖把人变成鱼，

but his spell only works 70% of the time.

但是他的咒语只有七成成功率。

And from the Leib-ton school,

来自Leib-ton学校的

an even more powerful enchantress wields a wand that turns people to statues,

更厉害的女巫可以用魔杖把人变成雕像，

and it works 90% of the time.

而且她的咒语有九成成功率。

Lots are drawn, and you’re chosen to cast the first spell in the duel.

抽签之后，你被选为 在决斗中第一个施放咒语的人。

The Newt-niz magician will go second,

来自Newt-niz的魔法师第二个施放咒语，

and the Leib-ton enchantress third,

来自Leib-ton的女巫第三个施放咒语，

after which you’ll repeat casting in that order until only one of you is left.

你们会不断按顺序施放咒语 直到只剩下一个人。

The rules of magic duels are strict,

魔法决斗的规则很严格，

and anyone who casts out of order immediately forfeits the duel.

任何不按顺序施放咒语的人 会立即丧失参赛权。

Also, to prevent draws,

以及，为了避免平局，

the rules stipulate that if everyone’s still standing

规则规定：如果所有人在第一轮结束的时候

at the end of the first round,

都没有倒下，

you’ll all be turned into cats.

你们都会被变成猫。

Now, you must choose a wand.

现在，你必须选择一个魔杖。

Your wizarding house presents you with three options:

巫师学院给你三个选择：

the Bannekar, which binds one target with vines

Bannekar，能把目标用藤蔓缠住，

and casts effectively 60% of the time,

有六成成功率，

the Gaussian, which turns one target into a tree

Gaussian，能把目标变成树，

and works 80% of the time,

有八成成功率，

and the incredibly rare Noether 9000,

以及极其稀有的Noether 9000，

which banishes one target to a distant mountaintop

它可以把目标驱逐到遥远的山顶，

and casts perfectly 100% of the time.

而且有百分之百的成功率。

Your opponents are masters of strategy, as well as sorcery,

你的队手既是策略大师又是魔法大师，

and you know they’ll make the choices that maximize their own chances of success.

你知道他们能做出使他们胜率最大化的选择。

Which wand should you choose

你会选择哪个魔杖？

and what strategy should you employ

你又会选择什么样的策略

to have the greatest chance of winning the duel?

才能有最大的胜率呢？

Pause the video now if you want to figure it out for yourself!

如果你想自己想出答案那就暂停视频吧！

Answer in: 3

答案在3秒后出现。

Answer in: 2

答案在2秒后出现。

Answer in: 1

答案在1秒后出现。

You reach for the Noether 9000 first.

你先尝试Noether 9000。

After all, it makes sense to enter the duel with the most powerful wand.

毕竟，在决斗中用最强力的魔杖是有道理的。

But before you pick it up, you consider what would happen.

但是在你拿起魔杖之前，想想有可能发生什么。

As the most dangerous wizard,

作为最危险的巫师，

you’d also be the target of the other two magicians,

你同时也会成为其他两位魔法师的目标，

and you’d need to take care of the most dangerous of them first.

你需要先解决他们中最危险的那个。

But afterward, there’s a 70% chance you'd be struck down by the remaining wizard.

但是，你还是有七成的概率 被剩下的那个巫师击倒。

That’s trouble.

这很麻烦。

Maybe it’s better to take the Gaussian.

也许拿Gaussian更好。

It works 80% of the time,

它有八成的成功率，

which means you wouldn’t be a target until the enchantress was incapacitated.

这意味着在女巫被击倒前， 你都不会成为首选目标。

But if you succeeded in transforming her,

但是如果你成功把她变形，

you’d probably be turned into a fish immediately after.

你就很有可能立刻被变成一条鱼。

If you transformed the sorcerer,

如果你把男巫变形，

the enchantress would almost certainly turn you to stone.

女巫几乎一定能把你变成石头。

It would really be better if you missed.

没有击中目标似乎是更好的。

And that’s when you have an idea:

所以你就有了一个想法：

what if you took the Gaussian, then missed on purpose?

如果你选择Gaussian， 而且故意没有击中目标？

Then, you would wait for the sorcerer to attack the enchantress,

那么，你就会等到男巫攻击女巫，

and you’d have an 80% chance of winning against the sorcerer.

然后你有80%的机会击倒男巫。

It’s a good idea, but there’s a problem;

这是个好主意，但是有一个问题；

the sorcerer could also pass his turn

男巫也可以跳过他的回合，

and the enchantress, knowing that she couldn’t pass without becoming a cat,

那么对于女巫来说，因为会变成猫， 她不能跳过她的回合，

would cast her spell on one of you.

她会攻击你们中的一个。

And since you’re the most dangerous between you and the sorcerer,

因为你比男巫要危险，

you’d be the target.

你会成为目标。

And that’s when you see what you really need to do:

这是你就知道你要做的是什么了：

take the weakest wand, the Bannekar, and miss on purpose.

选择最弱的魔杖，Bannekar， 然后故意没有击中目标。

Now the sorcerer knows that he’ll be targeted by the enchantress

现在男巫知道他一定会成为女巫的目标，

and he’ll have to try to turn her into a fish to avoid being turned into stone.

在被女巫变成石头之前， 所以他不得不尝试把女巫先变成鱼。

Seventy percent of the time he’d succeed

他有70%的成功率，

and you’d have a 60% chance of winning the duel

然后你就在下一轮比赛开始的时候，

at the beginning of the next round.

有60%的概率赢得比赛。

If he fails, chances are he’ll be turned to stone

如果他失败了，他可能会被变成石头，

and you’d still have a 60% chance of winning the duel against the enchantress.

而你还是有60%的成功率击败女巫。

There’s a slim 3% chance you’ll all be turned into cats,

这只有微小的3%的可能性你们全部变成猫，

but when everything’s accounted for,

但是考虑到所有的情况，

you have better than even odds of winning with this strategy.

这种策略有着超过一半的胜率。

And that’s the best you can do.

这是你能做到的最好了。

Here’s what the probability of winning for the different strategies looks like.

这是各种不同策略的胜率。

Who would’ve thought that the best way to take your shot

谁能想到最好的一击

would be to throw away your shot?

竟然是故意打偏呢?

想要再来一个死亡决斗吗？

试试这个吧。

你和你的对手要从两个 各有五个苹果的碗中选择。

在绿苹果的碗中，有两个是有毒的。

在红苹果的碗中，有三个是有毒的。

但是如果你选择了绿色的苹果， 你必须吃三个。

但是如果你选择了红色的苹果， 你只用吃两个。

问题来了：吃一个毒苹果不会有什么问题，

但是两个会杀死你。

你该选哪个碗？

或者是根本没有区别？

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