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翻译人员: Ch'ng Tsu Pang
校对人员: Carol Wang
王国里有一位超级富商,
00:07
One of the kingdom’s
most prosperous merchants
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has been exposed for his corrupt dealings.
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被爆涉及不法交易。
00:13
Nearly all of his riches
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他将几乎全部身家
00:14
are invested in a collection
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都兑换成了收藏品,
00:16
of 30 exquisite Burmese rubies,
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就是 30 颗价值连城的缅甸红宝石,
00:19
and the crowd in the square
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广场上聚集了大量百姓,
00:21
is clamoring for their confiscation
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强烈要求没收宝石
00:23
to reimburse his victims.
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以赔偿受害者。
00:25
But the scoundrel and his allies at court
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奸商与法庭里的同谋串通,
00:28
have made a convincing case
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成功证明
00:29
that at least some of his wealth
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他至少有部分财富
00:31
was obtained legitimately,
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是通过合法手段、
00:33
and through good service to the crown.
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全心全意为国王服务所得。
00:35
The king ponders for a minute
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国王寻思片刻,
00:37
and announces his judgment.
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作出裁决:
00:39
Because there’s no way to know
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因为无从得知
00:40
which portion of the rubies
were bought with ill-gotten wealth,
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哪些宝石是用不义之财买的,
00:44
the fine will be determined through
a game of wits between the merchant
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所以我决定通过斗智游戏
来决定该充公多少宝石,
与商人斗智的对手是
国王最聪明的参谋——你。
00:48
and the king’s most clever advisor – you.
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00:52
You’re both told the rules in advance.
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你和商人都事先知道了游戏规则,
00:54
The merchant will be allowed to
discreetly divide his rubies
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商人可以秘密地将宝石
00:57
among three boxes, which
will then be placed in front of you.
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分别装进三个箱子里,
再把箱子搬到你面前。
01:02
You will be given three cards,
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然后,给你三张卡片,
01:04
and must write a number
between 1 and 30 on each,
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你必须在三张卡片上
分别写出 1 到 30 中的数字,
01:08
before putting a card in
front of each of the boxes.
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再将卡片分别放在三个箱子前,
01:12
The boxes will then all be opened.
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然后,打开箱子。
01:15
For each box, you will receive exactly
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如果你写的数字
01:17
as many rubies as the number written
on the corresponding card,
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等于或者少过箱中宝石的数量,
01:21
if the box has that many.
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你就会拿到和该数字相同数量的宝石。
01:23
But if your number is greater than
the number of rubies actually there,
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但如果数字多过箱中宝石,
01:27
the scoundrel gets to keep the entire box.
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则奸商得以留住整箱的宝石。
01:30
The king puts just two constraints on how
the scoundrel distributes his rubies.
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国王要求奸商遵守两个分宝石原则:
01:36
Each box must contain at least two rubies
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每个箱子必须至少有两颗宝石,
01:40
and one of the boxes must contain
exactly six more rubies than another—
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且一个箱子的宝石数量必须
比另一个箱子多出六颗——
01:45
but you won’t know which boxes those are.
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但你不知道到底是哪个箱子。
01:48
After a few minutes of deliberation,
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只见奸商沉思了几分钟,
01:50
the merchant hides the gems,
and the boxes are brought in front of you.
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便将宝石分别藏好,
然后把箱子带到你眼前。
01:54
Which numbers should you choose
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你应该写下什么数字
01:56
in order to guarantee the largest possible
fine for the scoundrel
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好让奸商得到最大的惩罚,
02:00
and the greatest compensation
for his victims?
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也让受害者得到最多的补偿呢?
02:03
Pause the video now if you want
to figure it out for yourself.
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[想尝试解题者,请暂停视频]
02:07
Answer in 3
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[答案 3 秒后揭晓]
02:08
Answer in 2
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[答案 2 秒后揭晓]
02:09
Answer in 1
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[答案 1 秒后揭晓]
02:11
You don’t want to overshoot
by being too greedy.
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如果太贪心,可能会得不偿失,
02:14
But there is a way you can guarantee
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但有一个方法可以保证你
02:16
to get more than half of the scoundrel’s
stash.
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至少获得奸商一半以上的赃物。
02:20
The situation resembles an
adversarial game like chess –
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这跟国际象棋类的对弈游戏很像——
02:24
only here you can’t see the
opponent’s position.
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只不过这里你看不到对手的出招。
02:27
To figure out the minimum number of rubies
you’re guaranteed to win,
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想算出至少可以稳获多少宝石,
02:31
you need to look for the worst case
scenario,
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你需要设想一下最糟的情况,
02:34
as if the merchant already knew your move
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假设奸商已知道你会怎么做,
02:36
and could arrange the rubies
to minimize your winnings.
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而且能事先排好宝石,
把你的胜算降至最低。
02:40
Because you have no way of knowing which
boxes will have more or fewer rubies,
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因为你无从得知哪个箱子
宝石较多,哪个较少,
02:44
you should pick the same number for each.
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你应该选择三个一样的号码。
02:47
Suppose you write three 9’s.
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假设你写下三个 9,
02:49
The scoundrel might have allocated the
rubies as 8, 14 and 8.
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而奸商把宝石分成 8,14 和 8,
02:54
In that case, you’d receive 9 from the
middle box and no others.
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那么,你就只能取得
中间箱子的 9 颗宝石。
02:59
On the other hand, you can be
sure that at least two boxes
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而另一方面,你可以
确定至少有两个箱子
03:02
have a minimum of 8 rubies.
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有至少 8 颗以上的宝石。
03:04
Here’s why.
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原因如下:
03:05
We’ll start by assuming the opposite,
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我们不妨从反面开始推想,
03:08
that two boxes have 7 or fewer.
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若有两个箱子的宝石小于或等于 7 颗,
03:10
Those could not be the two that
differ by 6,
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则这它俩的宝石之差就不会是 6 颗,
03:13
because every box must have
at least 2 rubies.
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因为每个箱子至少会有 2 颗宝石。
03:16
In that case, the third box would have at
most 13 rubies—that’s 7 plus 6.
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这么一来,第三个箱子至多
有 13 颗宝石——也就是 7 加 6。
03:23
Add up all three of those boxes,
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把这三个箱子的宝石数加起来
03:25
and the most that could equal is 27.
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最多只能得到 27,
03:28
Since that’s less than 30,
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也就是少于 30,
03:30
this scenario isn’t possible.
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这是不可能发生的。
03:32
You now know, by what’s called
a proof by contradiction,
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通过这个反证法,
03:35
that two of the boxes have
8 or more rubies.
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你得出有两个箱子
装有 8 颗或以上的宝石。
03:39
If you ask for 8 from all three boxes
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只要三个箱子都写上 8,
03:42
you’ll receive at least 16—
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那么你至少会得到 16 颗——
03:44
and that’s the best you can guarantee,
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这也是你稳操胜券的最好结果,
03:46
as you can see by thinking again
about the 8, 14, 8 scenario.
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再次检视8,14,8的情形,
你的选择也是最好结果。
你已成功取回奸商半数以上的财产,
03:51
You’ve recovered more than half the
scoundrel’s fortune
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03:54
as restitution for the public.
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并还之于民。
03:56
And though he’s managed to hold
on to some of his rubies,
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奸商纵使设法保住了一些宝石,
03:59
his fortune has definitely
lost some of its shine.
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但其财富无疑已大不如前了。
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