The rapid growth of the Chinese internet -- and where it's headed | Gary Liu

翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Once every 12 months,

每12个月，

the world's largest human migration happens in China.

在中国就要发生一场 全球最大的人口迁移。

Over the 40-day travel period of Chinese New Year,

在农历新年40余天的 旅行高峰期中，

three billion trips are taken,

无数家庭的重聚与欢庆，

as families reunite and celebrate.

同时伴随着30多亿次的出行。

Now, the most strenuous of these trips are taken

全国2.9亿外来务工群体经历着

by the country's 290 million migrant workers,

这些旅行中最艰难的部分，

for many of whom this is the one chance a year

其中大部分人1年才有这1次机会

to go home and see parents and their left-behind children.

回家看望父母和留守的孩子们。

But the travel options are very limited;

但是回家的方式非常有限；

plane tickets cost nearly half of their monthly salary.

机票的价格相当于 他们半个月的工资。

So most of them, they choose the train.

所以他们大部分都选择了火车。

Their average journey is 700 kilometers.

他们的平均旅程是700公里。

The average travel time is 15 and a half hours.

平均旅行时间是15个半小时。

And the country's tracks now have to handle 390 million travelers

全国的火车轨道需要 在春节期间运送

every Spring Festival.

3.9亿的旅客。

Until recently,

直到不久之前，

migrant workers would have to queue for long hours -- sometimes days --

外来务工群体还需要排上好几个 小时的队——有时候长达几天——

just to buy tickets,

才能买到票，

often only to be fleeced by scalpers.

还常常被票贩子所骗。

And they still had to deal with near-stampede conditions

出发当天，

when travel day finally arrived.

他们还得应付汹涌的人潮。

But technology has started to ease this experience.

但科技已经在开始改进这种体验。

Mobile and digital tickets now account for 70 percent of sales,

手机和网络售票已经 占到了70%的销售额，

greatly reducing the lines at train stations.

大大减轻了火车站的排队现象。

Digital ID scanners have replaced manual checks,

数字身份扫描取代了人工检票，

expediting the boarding process,

加快了上车的过程，

and artificial intelligence is deployed across the network

网络中人工智能的部署

to optimize travel routes.

优化了出行线路。

New solutions have been invented.

新的解决方案已经出现了。

China's largest taxi-hailing platform, called Didi Chuxing,

中国最大的打车平台，滴滴出行，

launched a new service called Hitch,

推出了一项新的拼车服务，

which matches car owners who are driving home

用来匹配开私家车返乡的人群，

with passengers looking for long-distance routes.

与寻找长途旅行交通工具的旅客。

In just its third year,

在拼车服务开展的第3年，

Hitch served 30 million trips in this past holiday season,

在刚刚过去的假期 服务了3千万趟出行，

the longest of which was further than 1,500 miles.

最长的一段距离超过了1500英里。

That's about the distance from Miami to Boston.

相当于迈阿密到波士顿的距离。

This enormous need of migrant workers has powered fast upgrade and innovation

这种对外来务工人员的 巨大需求推动了

across the country's transport systems.

全国交通系统的快速升级和创新。

Now, the Chinese internet has developed in both familiar and unfamiliar ways.

中国互联网的发展方式 看上去既熟悉，却又不同凡响。

Just like in Silicon Valley,

就跟硅谷一样，

some of the seismic shifts in technology and consumer behavior

科技和消费者行为的变化

have been driven by academic research,

受学术研究驱动，

have been driven by enterprise desires,

受企业家欲望驱动，

with the whims of privilege and youth sprinkled in every once in a while.

并伴随着每隔一段时间都会有的 突发奇想的创意，和青春的迸发。

I am a product of the American tech industry,

我是美国科技行业的产品，

both as a consumer and a corporate leader.

既是消费者，也是公司负责人。

So I am well acquainted with this type of fuel.

所以我对这种燃料很熟悉。

But about a year and a half ago,

但大约一年半以前，

I moved from my home in New York City to Hong Kong

我从纽约的家搬到香港，

to become the CEO of the South China Morning Post.

成为了华南早报的CEO。

And from this new vantage point,

在这个新的有利位置，

I've observed something that is far less familiar to me,

我们开始观察到一些 前所未有的事情，

propelling so much of China's innovation and many of its entrepreneurs.

推动了中国的许多创新 和许多企业家的发展。

It is an overwhelming need economy

这是一个为弱势群体服务的

that is serving an underprivileged populous,

巨大需求经济，

which has been separated for 30 years from China's economic boom.

却被中国经济繁荣的30年排除在外。

The stark gaps that exist between the rich and the poor,

富人和穷人之间，

between urban and rural

城市跟农村之间，

or the academic and the unschooled --

或者受过教育和未上学的人 之间存在明显的代沟——

these gaps, they form a soil

这些代沟为培植不可思议的

that's ready for some incredible empowerment.

力量提供了土壤。

So when capital and investment become focused on the needs of people

所以当资本和投资开始专注于

who are hanging to the bottom rungs of an economic ladder,

在经济阶梯底层徘徊的人们，

that's when we start to see the internet truly become a job creator,

我们就开始看到互联网 真正开始创造就业机会，

an education enabler

成为教育推动者，

and in many other ways, a path forward.

以及在很多方面指引前进的方向。

Of course, China is not the only place where this alternative fuel exists,

当然，中国不是唯一一个 存在这种替代燃料的地方，

nor the only place where it is possible.

也不是唯一可能实现这一切的地方。

But because of the country's sheer scale and status as a rising superpower,

但由于中国的绝对规模和 崛起中的大国地位，

the needs of its population have created an opportunity

人口的需求就创造出了

for truly compelling impact.

真正引人瞩目的影响。

When explaining the rapid growth of the Chinese tech industry,

当观察快速增长的中国科技产业时，

many observers will cite two reasons.

很多观察者常会提到两个原因。

The first is the 1.4 billion people that call China home.

首先是，有14亿人口以中国为家。

The second is the government's active participation --

第二个因素，是政府的积极参与——

or pervasive intervention, depending on how you view it.

或者是过渡干预，取决于 你如何看待这个问题。

Now, the central authorities have spent heavily on network infrastructure

在过去几年，中央政府 对网络基础设施的

投入非常积极，

over the years,

创造了极具吸引力的投资环境。

creating an attractive environment for investment.

At the same time, they've insisted on standards and regulation,

同时，他们坚持标准和监管，

which has led to fast consensus and therefore, fast adoption.

快速地达成了共识， 同时也在短时间内实现了普及。

The world's largest pool of tech talent exists

中国有全球最大的科技人才储备，

because of the abundance of educational incentives.

这得益于大量的教育激励措施。

And local, domestic companies, in the past, have been protected

而在过去，本地，国内企业 也在国际竞争中

from international competition

通过市场控制

by market controls.

得到了保护。

Of course, you cannot observe the Chinese internet

当然，你观察中国互联网

without finding widespread censorship

就无法忽视广泛的审查，

and very serious concerns about dystopian monitoring.

以及对反乌托邦式 监控的严重关切。

As an example:

举个例子：

China is in the process of rolling out a social credit rating

中国正在推进覆盖整个国民的

that will cover its entire population,

社会信用评级体系，

rewarding and restricting citizens,

用来奖励和限制公民，

based on highly qualitative characteristics

基于他们高度定性的特征，

like honesty and integrity.

如诚信和正直。

At the same time,

同时，

China is deploying facial recognition

中国正在1.7亿个闭路摄像头中

across many of its 170 million closed-circuit cameras.

部署人脸识别功能。

Artificial intelligence is being used to predict crime and terrorism

在新疆，人工智能被用于预防犯罪

in Xinjiang province,

和恐怖袭击，

where the Muslim minority is already under constant surveillance.

那里的穆斯林少数民族 已经处于不断的监视之下。

Yet, the internet has continued to grow, and it is so big --

当然，互联网仍在继续增长， 已经变得十分庞大——

much bigger than I think most of us realize.

比我们大部分美国人 想象的都要大。

By the end of 2017,

到2017年底，

the Chinese internet population had reached 772 million users.

中国网民人数达到了7.72亿。

That's larger than the populations of the United States, Russia,

这个数量超过了美国，俄罗斯，

of Germany, of the United Kingdom, of France and Canada combined.

德国，英国，法国和 加拿大人口的总和。

Ninety-eight percent of them are active on mobile.

98%的中国网民使用手机互联网。

Ninety-two percent of them use messaging apps.

92%的人使用即时通信应用。

There are now 650 million digital news consumers,

有6.5亿数字新闻消费者，

580 million digital video consumers,

5.8亿数字视频用户，

and the country's largest e-commerce platform, Taobao,

中国最大的电子商务平台，淘宝，

now boasts 580 million monthly active users.

现在每个月的 活跃用户多达5.8亿人。

It's about 80 percent larger than Amazon.

这个数字比亚马逊要大80%。

On-demand travel, between bikes and cars,

按需出行，包括了自行车和汽车，

now accounts for 10 billion trips a year in China.

在中国一年的出行次数 超过了100亿次。

That's two-thirds of all trips taken around the world.

相当于全球出行总数的2/3。

So it's a very mixed bag.

这背后的机制十分复杂。

The internet exists in a restricted, arguably manipulated form within China,

中国境内的互联网存在于一种受限制， 甚至可以说是被操纵的环境中，

yet it is massive and has vastly improved the lives of its citizens.

但它十分庞大，也极大地 提高了居民的生活水平。

So even in its imperfection,

因此尽管它并不完美，

the growth of the Chinese internet should not be dismissed,

中国互联网的成长也不容忽视，

and it's worthy of our closer examination.

值得我们的仔细审视。

Let me tell you two other stories today.

今天我还想告诉大家 另外两个故事。

Luo Zhaoliu is a 34-year-old engineer from Jiangxi province.

罗照柳是一位来自 江西的34岁工程师。

Now, his home region used to be extremely important to the Communist party

他的家乡曾经对 共产党来说非常重要，

因为这是红军的诞生地。

because this was the birthplace of the Red Army.

But over the decades, because of its separation

但在数十年后，因为它与

from the economic and manufacturing centers of the country,

中国经济和制造中心的分离，

it has slid into irrelevance.

它的地位已经变得无关紧要了。

Luo, like so many in his generation, left home at a young age

罗，跟他的很多同辈人 一样，年轻时离开家，

to look for work in a major city.

在大城市寻找工作。

He ended up in Shenzhen, which is one of China's tech hubs.

他最终到了深圳， 中国的科技中心之一。

As the young migrate,

随着年轻人的离开，

these rural villages are left with only elderly,

这些农村地区只剩下老人，

who are really struggling to elevate themselves above abject poverty.

无助地在贫困线上挣扎。

After nine years, Luo decided to return to Jiangxi in 2017,

9年后，罗决定在2017年回到江西，

because he believed that the booming e-commerce marketplace in China

因为他相信中国蓬勃发展的 电子商务市场

could help him revive his village.

可以帮助他振兴他的家乡。

Like many rural communities,

如很多农村地区一样，

Luo's home specialized in a very specific provincial craft --

罗的家乡以一种 省级土特产闻名——

making fermented bean curd, in this case.

生产腐乳。

So he started a small factory

于是他开了一家小工厂。

and started selling his locally made goods online.

开始在网上卖本地特产。

There have been many years of consumption growth

中国主要城市的消费增长

across China's major cities.

已经持续了好多年。

But recently, technology has been driving an explosion in craft goods sales

但最近，科技驱动了 在中国的中产及以上阶层中

among China's middle and upper classes.

手工艺品销售的暴增。

WeChat and other e-commerce platforms allow rural producers

微信和其他电子商务平台 让来自农村的产品

to market and sell their goods

进入市场，并销售到了

far beyond their original distribution areas.

远超原销售区域之外的地方。

Research companies actually track this impact

研究公司通过“淘宝村”的数量

by counting what is called "Taobao villages."

跟踪了这种影响。

This is any rural village where at least 10 percent of its households

所谓“淘宝村”，指的是活跃网店 数量达到当地家庭户数10%以上，

are selling goods online and making a certain amount of revenue.

以及销售额达到一定水平的村庄。

And the growth has been significant in the last few years.

在过去几年中，这个数目 增长非常显著。

There were just 20 Taobao villages in 2013,

2013年全国只有20个淘宝村，

212 in 2014,

2014年212个，

780 in 2015,

2015年780个，

1,300 in 2016

2016年1300个

and over 2,100 at the end of 2017.

2017年则超过了2100个。

They now account for nearly half a million active online stores,

他们现在的网上活跃 店铺达到了50万个，

19 billion dollars in annual sales

年销售额达到190亿美元，

and 1.3 million new jobs created.

创造了130万个就业机会。

In Luo's first year back home, he was able to employ 15 villagers.

在罗回到家乡的第一年， 他只雇佣了15个村民，

And he sold about 60,000 units of fermented bean curd.

卖出了6万份腐乳。

He expects to hire 30 more people in the next year,

他预计明年要多雇佣30个人，

as his demand rapidly rises.

以满足快速增长的需求。

There are 60 million left-behind children scattered across China's rural landscape.

中国的乡村分散着 6000万的留守儿童。

And they grow up with at least one parent far away from home,

在他们的成长时期，父母至少 有一个作为外来务工人员，

as a migrant worker.

远离家乡谋生。

Alongside all the general hardships of rural life,

除了农村生活普遍存在的困难外，

they often have to travel vast and dangerous distances

这些孩子常常需要 走上一大段危险的山路

just to get to school.

去上学。

They account for 30 percent

他们的数量占据了

of the country's primary and high school students.

中国初等教育学生的30%。

Ten-year-old Chang Wenxuan is one of these students.

10岁的张文轩 就是这样的一个学生。

He walks an hour each way every single day to school,

他每天走路1个多小时去上学，

across these deep ravines, in an isolated landscape.

在完全被割裂的地带中， 穿过这些深深的峡谷。

But when he arrives at the small farming village in Gansu province,

但当他到达甘肃省一个小村庄时，

he will find just two other students in this entire school.

整座学校只有另外的两个学生。

Now, Chang's school is one of 1,000 in Gansu alone

张同学所在的学校 是甘肃省学生注册人数

that has less than five registered students.

不足5个的1000所学校中的一所。

So with limited student interaction,

由于缺少学生互动，

with underqualified teachers

外加不合格的老师，

and schoolhouses that are barely furnished and not insulated,

以及没有家具和 祛暑避寒的教室环境，

rural students have long been disadvantaged,

农村学生很早就处于不利的环境，

with almost no path to higher education.

几乎没有机会接受高等教育。

But Chang's future has been dramatically shifted

但张同学的未来 已经因为安装的“阳光教室”

with the installation of a “Sunshine Classroom.”

而大大扭转了。

He's now part of a digital classroom of 100 students

他现在是覆盖28个不同学校的

across 28 different schools,

100个数字教室课堂的一份子，

taught by qualified and certified teachers

由来自数百英里外有资质的

live-streaming from hundreds of miles away.

认证教师进行直播授课。

He has access to new subjects like music and art,

他接触到了诸如音乐， 艺术这样新的课程，

to new friends

结识到了新的朋友，

and to experiences that extend far beyond his home.

更是体验到了在他的家乡 所体验不到的东西。

Recently, Chang even got to visit the Frederiksborg Castle museum

最近，张同学甚至 参观了丹麦菲德烈堡的

in Denmark --

宫城堡博物馆，

virtually, of course.

当然，也是远程的。

Now, online education has existed for many years outside of China.

网络教育在中国之外的国家 已经存在了很多年，

But it has never reached truly transformative scale,

但从来没有达到这样可观的规模，

likely because traditional education systems

可能是因为全球其他科技中心的

in other tech centers of the world

传统教育系统

are far more advanced and far more stable.

非常发达，也非常稳定。

But China's extreme terrain and size

但中国的极端地形和面积，

have created an enormous and immediate need for innovation.

产生了对创新的旺盛而迫切的需求。

There's a tech start-up in Shenzhen that grew to 300,000 students

这个深圳的科技创业公司 在不到一年的时间里

in just one year.

发展到了30万名学生。

And by our best estimation at the Post,

根据我们报社的最佳估计，

there are now 55 million rural students across China

中国现在有5500万农村学生

that are addressable and accessible by live-streaming classes.

是网络直播课堂的受众或潜在受众。

This market of need is larger than the entire US student population

这个市场的需求比美国初等教育的

between kindergarten and grade 12.

学生总人数还要多。

So I'm extremely encouraged to find out

所以当发现私人企业

that private investment in ed-tech in China

对中国教育科技的投资

now exceeds one billion dollars a year,

现在已经超过每年10亿美元，

with another 30 billion dollars in public funding

公共基金还承诺将从现在到2020年

that is committed between now and 2020.

投入300亿美元， 我真心地感到备受鼓舞。

As the Chinese internet continues to grow,

随着中国互联网继续增长，

even in its imperfection and restrictions and controls,

尽管存在一系列的 不完美，限制和控制，

the lives of its once-forgotten populations

那些被一度遗忘的人们的生活质量

have been irrevocably elevated.

已经不可逆转地得到了提升。

There is a focus on populations of need, not of want,

我们专注于人口的需求， 没有其他诀窍，

that has driven a lot of the curiosity, the creativity

这驱动了大量的好奇和创造力，

and the development that we see.

以及我们所看到的发展。

And there's still more to come.

而且还会有更多的改变发生。

In America, internet population, or penetration,

在美国，互联网人口或渗透率，

has now reached 88 percent.

已经达到88%。

In China, the internet has still only reached 56 percent of the populous.

在中国，互联网 只渗透到了56%的人口。

That means there are over 600 million people

这意味着还有超过6亿人

who are still offline and disconnected.

仍然处于离线状态，不上网。

That's nearly twice the US population.

这个数字相当于 美国人口的近两倍。

An enormous opportunity.

同时意味着一个巨大的机遇。

Wherever this alternative fuel exists,

无论这种替代燃料存在于何处，

be it in China or Africa, Southeast Asia or the American heartland,

在中国或者非洲， 东南亚或者美国心脏地带，

we should endeavor to follow it with capital and with effort,

我们应该用资本和 努力来实现这一目标，

driving both economic and societal impact all over the world.

驱动全球的经济和社会影响。

Just imagine for a minute what more could be possible

只需要稍微思考一下， 如果未被满足的全球需求

if the global needs of the underserved become the primary focus

成为我们发明的主要焦点，

of our inventions.

还会有哪些更多的可能。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）