The rapid growth of the Chinese internet -- and where it's headed | Gary Liu

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

Once every 12 months,

每 12 個月，

the world's largest human migration happens in China.

中國就會發生一次 世界最大規模的人類遷徙。

Over the 40-day travel period of Chinese New Year,

在中國新年的 40 天旅行期當中，

three billion trips are taken,

會有 30 億人次的旅行產生，

as families reunite and celebrate.

為了回家相聚和慶祝。

Now, the most strenuous of these trips are taken

這些旅行當中最艱苦的

by the country's 290 million migrant workers,

是中國 2 億 9 千萬移民工人的旅行，

for many of whom this is the one chance a year

因為對許多移民工人而言， 一年就只有這次機會

to go home and see parents and their left-behind children.

可以回家看父母 和被他們留在家鄉的孩子。

But the travel options are very limited;

但旅行的選擇非常有限；

plane tickets cost nearly half of their monthly salary.

機票票價幾乎是他們月薪的一半。

So most of them, they choose the train.

所以他們大部分會選擇火車。

Their average journey is 700 kilometers.

他們的平均旅程是 700 公里。

The average travel time is 15 and a half hours.

平均旅行時間是 15.5 小時。

And the country's tracks now have to handle 390 million travelers

每年的中國新年， 中國的鐵路就要處理

3 億 9 千萬名乘客。

every Spring Festival.

Until recently,

直到近期，

migrant workers would have to queue for long hours -- sometimes days --

移工得要排隊數小時，甚至數天，

just to buy tickets,

只為了買到車票，

often only to be fleeced by scalpers.

常常還被黃牛給剝削。

And they still had to deal with near-stampede conditions

等到出發日終於到了， 他們仍然得要面對

when travel day finally arrived.

幾乎是人潮蜂湧的狀況。

But technology has started to ease this experience.

但科技開始緩和像這樣子的經歷。

Mobile and digital tickets now account for 70 percent of sales,

行動和數位票券現在佔了業績的 70%，

greatly reducing the lines at train stations.

大大減少了在火車站排隊的人潮。

Digital ID scanners have replaced manual checks,

數位 ID 掃瞄器取代了人工驗票，

expediting the boarding process,

加速了上車的流程，

and artificial intelligence is deployed across the network

網路上還採用了人工智慧，

to optimize travel routes.

讓旅行路線能最佳化。

New solutions have been invented.

現在已經發明出了解決方案。

China's largest taxi-hailing platform, called Didi Chuxing,

中國最大的計程車招呼平台 叫做「滴滴出行」，

launched a new service called Hitch,

他們推出了新服務「順風車」，

which matches car owners who are driving home

將開車回家的汽車駕駛

with passengers looking for long-distance routes.

和找車的長途旅客做配對。

In just its third year,

「順風車」才推出第三年，

Hitch served 30 million trips in this past holiday season,

在最近一次的長假期間 就服務了三千萬趟旅行，

the longest of which was further than 1,500 miles.

當中最長的旅途超過 1,500 英哩。

That's about the distance from Miami to Boston.

那大約是邁阿密到波士頓的距離。

This enormous need of migrant workers has powered fast upgrade and innovation

移民工人的需求量非常大，

促成了全國各地 運輸系統的升級和創新。

across the country's transport systems.

Now, the Chinese internet has developed in both familiar and unfamiliar ways.

現在，中國網路的發展， 有我們熟悉與不熟悉的方式。

Just like in Silicon Valley,

就像在矽谷一樣，

some of the seismic shifts in technology and consumer behavior

有一些科技和消費行為的轉變，

have been driven by academic research,

是由學術研究所帶動的，

have been driven by enterprise desires,

是由企業的慾望所帶動的，

with the whims of privilege and youth sprinkled in every once in a while.

偶爾，還會因一些當權者的一時興起， 或是年輕人的突發奇想而發生轉變。

I am a product of the American tech industry,

我是美國科技產業的產物，

both as a consumer and a corporate leader.

是消費者，同時也是企業領導者。

So I am well acquainted with this type of fuel.

我非常清楚這種推動力量。

But about a year and a half ago,

可是，大約一年半之前，

I moved from my home in New York City to Hong Kong

我從紐約搬家搬到香港，

to become the CEO of the South China Morning Post.

去擔任南華早報的執行長。

And from this new vantage point,

從這個新的有利位置，

I've observed something that is far less familiar to me,

我觀察到了一種我很不熟悉的狀況，

propelling so much of China's innovation and many of its entrepreneurs.

它驅動了中國大量的創新， 激勵了許多中國的創業家。

It is an overwhelming need economy

它是一種強大的需求經濟，

that is serving an underprivileged populous,

對象是下層的眾多人口，

which has been separated for 30 years from China's economic boom.

30 年來，中國的 經濟景氣與他們無關。

The stark gaps that exist between the rich and the poor,

這個非常明顯的差距， 存在於富人和窮人之間，

between urban and rural

城市和鄉村之間，

or the academic and the unschooled --

或是受教育和未受教育的人之間——

these gaps, they form a soil

這些差距形成了一種沃土，

that's ready for some incredible empowerment.

準備好要成就大事，協助賦權。

So when capital and investment become focused on the needs of people

當資本和投資的重點都放在

who are hanging to the bottom rungs of an economic ladder,

位於經濟階梯下層者的需要時，

that's when we start to see the internet truly become a job creator,

我們就會看見網際網路 真正變成了工作創造者、

an education enabler

教育實現者，

and in many other ways, a path forward.

在許多層面上， 也變成是條向前行的路。

Of course, China is not the only place where this alternative fuel exists,

當然，不只中國， 其他地方也有這種替代的推動力，

nor the only place where it is possible.

在其他地方也有可能實現。

But because of the country's sheer scale and status as a rising superpower,

但因為中國身為一種新興 超級力量的規模和狀況，

the needs of its population have created an opportunity

其人民的需求已經創造出了

for truly compelling impact.

一個有著極大影響力的機會。

When explaining the rapid growth of the Chinese tech industry,

許多觀察家在解釋中國 科技產業的快速成長時，

many observers will cite two reasons.

會引用兩個理由。

The first is the 1.4 billion people that call China home.

第一個理由是中國有 14 億居住人口。

The second is the government's active participation --

第二個理由是政府的積極參與——

or pervasive intervention, depending on how you view it.

或普遍的干預，看你怎麼去看它。

Now, the central authorities have spent heavily on network infrastructure

這些年來，中央當權機關投入很多

在做網路的基礎建設，

over the years,

creating an attractive environment for investment.

創造出一個很吸引投資的環境。

At the same time, they've insisted on standards and regulation,

同時，他們對於標準 和規制十分堅持，

which has led to fast consensus and therefore, fast adoption.

導致了快速的共識， 因而能快速上路。

The world's largest pool of tech talent exists

世界上最大的科技人才庫 之所以會存在，

because of the abundance of educational incentives.

是因為教育獎勵很充足。

And local, domestic companies, in the past, have been protected

過去，地區性、國內的 公司一直受到保護，

from international competition

不受國際競爭影響，

by market controls.

保護方式就是市場控制。

Of course, you cannot observe the Chinese internet

當然，如果你觀察中國網路，

without finding widespread censorship

就一定會發現有很廣泛的審查制度，

and very serious concerns about dystopian monitoring.

並且會嚴重關切反烏托邦的監視。

As an example:

舉例來說：

China is in the process of rolling out a social credit rating

中國正在推行一項社會信用評分，

that will cover its entire population,

會涵蓋到中國的所有人口，

rewarding and restricting citizens,

給公民獎勵或是限制，

based on highly qualitative characteristics

依據則是高度質性的特性，

like honesty and integrity.

比如誠實和廉正。

At the same time,

同時，

China is deploying facial recognition

中國也在展開臉孔辨識，

across many of its 170 million closed-circuit cameras.

中國有 1 億 7 千萬台閉路攝影機， 大多都會套用。

Artificial intelligence is being used to predict crime and terrorism

人工智慧被用來預測

新疆省的犯罪和恐怖主義，

in Xinjiang province,

where the Muslim minority is already under constant surveillance.

在該省份中，穆斯林少數 已經受到經常的監視。

Yet, the internet has continued to grow, and it is so big --

然而，網際網路持續成長， 它是如此龐大——

much bigger than I think most of us realize.

比我們大部分人所知道的還要大很多。

By the end of 2017,

截至 2017 年年底，

the Chinese internet population had reached 772 million users.

中國網路已經達到 七億七千兩百萬名使用者。

That's larger than the populations of the United States, Russia,

這個數量比美國、俄國、德國、

of Germany, of the United Kingdom, of France and Canada combined.

英國、法國，和加拿大 所有人口加起來還多。

Ninety-eight percent of them are active on mobile.

其中 98% 的使用者都是用手機上網。

Ninety-two percent of them use messaging apps.

其中 92% 會用訊息應用程式。

There are now 650 million digital news consumers,

現在有六億五千萬個 數位新聞的消費者，

580 million digital video consumers,

五億八千萬個數位影片消費者，

and the country's largest e-commerce platform, Taobao,

中國最大的電子商務平台淘寶網

now boasts 580 million monthly active users.

自稱現在每個月有 五億八千萬名活躍的使用者。

It's about 80 percent larger than Amazon.

大約比亞馬遜還要大 80%。

On-demand travel, between bikes and cars,

腳踏車和汽車的按需旅行，

now accounts for 10 billion trips a year in China.

現在在中國一年有 100 億趟。

That's two-thirds of all trips taken around the world.

那是全世界旅行趟數的三分之二。

So it's a very mixed bag.

所以，這個袋子的內容很雜。

The internet exists in a restricted, arguably manipulated form within China,

在中國，網際網路存在的形式是個 受限制且可說是被操控的形式，

yet it is massive and has vastly improved the lives of its citizens.

然而，它非常巨大， 且大大改善了中國公民的生活。

So even in its imperfection,

所以即便它不完美，

the growth of the Chinese internet should not be dismissed,

中國網際網路的成長不該被忽視，

and it's worthy of our closer examination.

很值得我們更深入探究。

Let me tell you two other stories today.

今天，讓我再跟各位說兩個故事。

Luo Zhaoliu is a 34-year-old engineer from Jiangxi province.

羅昭劉（Luo Zhaoliu） 是江西省的 34 歲工程師。

Now, his home region used to be extremely important to the Communist party

對共產黨來說，他的家鄉 曾是極度重要的區域，

because this was the birthplace of the Red Army.

因為這是紅軍的誕生地。

But over the decades, because of its separation

但經過數十年，因為它

from the economic and manufacturing centers of the country,

與中國的經濟和製造中心分離，

it has slid into irrelevance.

它也漸漸變得不重要了。

Luo, like so many in his generation, left home at a young age

羅和他同輩的許多人一樣， 年輕時就離鄉背井，

to look for work in a major city.

到大城市去找工作。

He ended up in Shenzhen, which is one of China's tech hubs.

他最後到了深圳， 中國的科技中心之一。

As the young migrate,

當年輕人外移，

these rural villages are left with only elderly,

這些鄉村村子就只剩下老年人，

who are really struggling to elevate themselves above abject poverty.

他們很辛苦才能維持在 比淒苦貧困稍好一點的水平。

After nine years, Luo decided to return to Jiangxi in 2017,

2017 年，即 9 年後， 羅決定要回到江西，

because he believed that the booming e-commerce marketplace in China

因為他相信， 中國的電子商務市場景氣

could help him revive his village.

能夠協助復甦他的村子。

Like many rural communities,

和許多鄉村社區一樣，

Luo's home specialized in a very specific provincial craft --

羅的家鄉也特別擅長 一種很明確的地方性手工藝，

making fermented bean curd, in this case.

在這個例子中， 這項手工藝是做臭豆腐。

So he started a small factory

所以他開了一間小工廠，

and started selling his locally made goods online.

開始在線上銷售他的 當地製造的商品。

There have been many years of consumption growth

整個中國主要城市的消費成長

across China's major cities.

已經持續了很多年。

But recently, technology has been driving an explosion in craft goods sales

但近期，科技開始帶動了 手工藝商品的業績，

among China's middle and upper classes.

銷售對象是中國的中高階層人士。

WeChat and other e-commerce platforms allow rural producers

微信和其他電子商務平台 讓鄉村的製造者

to market and sell their goods

能行銷和出售他們的商品，

far beyond their original distribution areas.

所及範圍遠超過 他們原本的銷售區域。

Research companies actually track this impact

研究公司真去追蹤這項影響，

by counting what is called "Taobao villages."

做法是去計算所謂的「淘寶村」。

This is any rural village where at least 10 percent of its households

任何一個鄉村只要有 一成以上的家庭上網賣商品，

are selling goods online and making a certain amount of revenue.

且達到一定的營收額， 該村就稱為是淘寶村。

And the growth has been significant in the last few years.

在過去短短幾年，成長非常顯著。

There were just 20 Taobao villages in 2013,

2013 年只有 20 個淘寶村，

212 in 2014,

2014 年 212 個，

780 in 2015,

2015 年有 780 個，

1,300 in 2016

2016 年有 1,300 個，

and over 2,100 at the end of 2017.

2017 年年底有超過 2,100 個。

They now account for nearly half a million active online stores,

現在總共有將近 50 萬間活躍的網上商店，

19 billion dollars in annual sales

年銷售額達 190 億，

and 1.3 million new jobs created.

還創造出了 1,300 萬個新工作。

In Luo's first year back home, he was able to employ 15 villagers.

羅在返鄉的頭一年 僱用了十五位村民，

And he sold about 60,000 units of fermented bean curd.

賣出了六萬塊臭豆腐。

He expects to hire 30 more people in the next year,

他預計隔年隨著需求快速攀升，

as his demand rapidly rises.

會需要再僱用三十人。

There are 60 million left-behind children scattered across China's rural landscape.

在中國各個鄉村地區 有六千萬留守兒童。

And they grow up with at least one parent far away from home,

在他們成長的過程中， 至少有一位家長遠離家鄉

as a migrant worker.

去當移工。

Alongside all the general hardships of rural life,

鄉村生活一般來說都非常困苦，

they often have to travel vast and dangerous distances

這些孩子還得要行經 危險且長遠的路途

just to get to school.

才能到達學校。

They account for 30 percent

他們就佔了中國

of the country's primary and high school students.

小學和中學學生的 30%。

Ten-year-old Chang Wenxuan is one of these students.

10 歲的常文軒（Chang Wenxuan） 就是這樣的學生。

He walks an hour each way every single day to school,

他每天上學與返家各要花一小時，

across these deep ravines, in an isolated landscape.

要穿過一片孤立地區中的深谷。

But when he arrives at the small farming village in Gansu province,

但當他抵達甘肅省的這個農村時，

he will find just two other students in this entire school.

整所學校中只有他和另外兩個學生。

Now, Chang's school is one of 1,000 in Gansu alone

光是在甘肅省， 像小常的這間學校一樣

that has less than five registered students.

只有不到 5 名註冊學生的 學校就有 1 千間。

So with limited student interaction,

因為學生互動很有限，

with underqualified teachers

老師又資格不符，

and schoolhouses that are barely furnished and not insulated,

學校建築幾乎沒有什麼配備， 也沒有隔熱，

rural students have long been disadvantaged,

鄉村學生長年來一直都是弱勢，

with almost no path to higher education.

幾乎不可能進入高等教育。

But Chang's future has been dramatically shifted

但小常的未來出現了劇大的轉變，

with the installation of a “Sunshine Classroom.”

因為「陽光教室」的裝設完成了。

He's now part of a digital classroom of 100 students

他現在參與了一個數位教室，

成員是來自 28 所 不同學校的 100 名學生，

across 28 different schools,

taught by qualified and certified teachers

他們的老師是合格的，也有證照，

live-streaming from hundreds of miles away.

以直播的方式從數百英哩外教導他們。

He has access to new subjects like music and art,

他能夠接觸到新的科目， 如音樂和藝術，

to new friends

能交新朋友，

and to experiences that extend far beyond his home.

能學到經驗遠遠超出 他家鄉能夠提供的。

Recently, Chang even got to visit the Frederiksborg Castle museum

最近，小常甚至造訪了 腓特烈堡城堡博物館，

in Denmark --

它位于丹麥——

virtually, of course.

當然，是虛擬的造訪。

Now, online education has existed for many years outside of China.

在中國以外的地方， 線上教學已經存在很多年。

But it has never reached truly transformative scale,

但它從來沒有達到能夠 真正造成改變的規模，

likely because traditional education systems

很可能是因為世界上其他 教學中心裡的傳統教育體制

in other tech centers of the world

are far more advanced and far more stable.

實在先進太多，也穩定太多。

But China's extreme terrain and size

但中國廣大和極端的地形，

have created an enormous and immediate need for innovation.

導致對創新有著立即且極大的需求。

There's a tech start-up in Shenzhen that grew to 300,000 students

在深圳有間新創科技公司的 學生人數成長到 30 萬，

in just one year.

只花了一年。

And by our best estimation at the Post,

根據我們南華早報的最佳估計，

there are now 55 million rural students across China

全中國現在有 5,500 萬鄉村學生

that are addressable and accessible by live-streaming classes.

直播班可以找到他們、接觸他們。

This market of need is larger than the entire US student population

這個需求市場比全美國幼稚園

到 12 年級的學生總數還要大。

between kindergarten and grade 12.

So I'm extremely encouraged to find out

有件事讓我感到非常受鼓舞，

that private investment in ed-tech in China

我發現，針對中國教育科技的私人投資

now exceeds one billion dollars a year,

現在超過了每年 10 億元，

with another 30 billion dollars in public funding

另外還有 300 億元的公共資金，

that is committed between now and 2020.

會在現在到 2020 年之間提供。

As the Chinese internet continues to grow,

隨著中國網際網路持續成長，

even in its imperfection and restrictions and controls,

即使它不完美，

the lives of its once-forgotten populations

對於那些以前曾經被遺忘的人，

have been irrevocably elevated.

他們的生活已經被確實地提升。

There is a focus on populations of need, not of want,

當把焦點放在有需求的人口， 而非有慾望的人口時，

that has driven a lot of the curiosity, the creativity

它能夠驅動許多的好奇心、創意，

and the development that we see.

以及我們所見的發展。

And there's still more to come.

將來還有更多會出現。

In America, internet population, or penetration,

在美國，上網人口，或說滲透率，

has now reached 88 percent.

現在達到 88%。

In China, the internet has still only reached 56 percent of the populous.

在中國，只有 56% 的人 在使用網際網路。

That means there are over 600 million people

那意味著，還有超過 6 億人

who are still offline and disconnected.

還沒有上線，還沒有被連結。

That's nearly twice the US population.

那幾乎是美國人口數的 2 倍。

An enormous opportunity.

一個極大的機會。

Wherever this alternative fuel exists,

不論這種替代的推動力在哪裡，

be it in China or Africa, Southeast Asia or the American heartland,

不論是中國或非洲， 東南亞或美國心臟地區，

we should endeavor to follow it with capital and with effort,

我們應該要用資本 和努力來盡力追隨它，

driving both economic and societal impact all over the world.

帶動全世界各地的經濟和社會影響。

Just imagine for a minute what more could be possible

花一分鐘想想看， 如果我們在發明時，

能把焦點放到全球各地 服務缺乏的人口的需求上，

if the global needs of the underserved become the primary focus

of our inventions.

那我們會創造怎樣多的可能性？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）