A provocative way to finance the fight against climate change | Michael Metcalfe

63,632 views ・ 2016-05-23

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Jia Li 校对人员: Hong Li
00:13
Will we do whatever it takes to tackle climate change?
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我们能否做到不惜一切代价来应对气候变化?
00:19
I come at this question not as a green campaigner,
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我不是作为环保倡议者来思考这个问题,
00:22
in fact, I confess to be rather hopeless at recycling.
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事实上,我对回收利用不抱希望。
00:25
I come at it as a professional observer of financial policy making
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我是一名专业的金融政策观察者,
00:30
and someone that wonders how history will judge us.
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同时也想知道后世将如何评价我们。
00:36
One day,
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将来有一天,
00:37
this ring that belonged to my grandfather
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我爷爷的这枚戒指
00:41
will pass to my son, Charlie.
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会传给我儿子查理。
我很想知道我儿子那一代人
00:44
And I wonder what his generation
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00:46
and perhaps the one that follows
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和他们的下一代
00:49
will make of the two lives this ring has worked.
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将如何度过他们的人生。
00:54
My grandfather was a coal miner.
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我的爷爷是位矿工
00:58
In his time,
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在他那个年代,
01:00
burning fossil fuels for energy and for allowing economies to develop
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靠燃烧化石燃料获得能源并推动经济发展
01:05
was accepted.
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是可以接受的。
01:07
We know now that that is not the case
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尽管今天我们知道那样做是不对的
01:10
because of the greenhouse gases that coal produces.
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因为煤炭燃烧会产生温室气体。
01:15
But today,
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但如今,
01:16
I fear it's the industry in which I work that will be judged more harshly
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恐怕我所从事的行业,会被认为
01:20
because of its impact on the climate --
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对气候的危害更大——
01:23
more harshly than my grandfather's industry, even.
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以至于我们会背负更重的骂名。
01:26
I work, of course, in the banking industry,
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刚刚说过了,我在银行业工作,
01:28
which will be remembered for its crisis in 2008 --
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而这个行业因为2008年金融危机永垂史册——
01:33
a crisis that diverted the attention and finances of governments
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这场危机将政府的注意力和财政支出
01:38
away from some really, really important promises,
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从真正重要的事情上转移了,
01:44
like promises made at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009
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比如政府在2009年 哥本哈根气候大会上作出的承诺,
01:49
to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year
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每年调动1000亿美元
01:52
to help developing countries move away from burning fossil fuels
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帮助发展中国家停止使用化石燃料
01:56
and transition to using cleaner energy.
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转而使用更清洁的能源。
02:00
That promise is already in jeopardy.
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这一承诺早已岌岌可危。
02:03
And that's a real problem,
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这是个很严重的问题,
02:05
because that transition to cleaner energy needs to happen
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因为实现能源清洁化
02:08
sooner rather than later.
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刻不容缓。
02:11
Firstly,
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首先,
02:12
because greenhouse gases, once released,
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温室气体一旦产生,
02:14
stay in the atmosphere for decades.
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会在大气中停留数十年。
02:17
And secondly,
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其次,
02:18
if a developing economy builds its power grid around fossil fuels today,
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如果今天,发展中国家 使用化石燃料建立电网,
02:24
it's going to be way more costly to change later on.
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将来再想转变,代价会更为不菲。
02:28
So for the climate,
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因此将来回顾历史,
02:30
history may judge that the banking crisis happened
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会发现这场金融危机来得真不凑巧,
02:34
at just the wrong time.
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对解决气候问题不利。
02:36
The story need not be this gloomy, though.
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但我们倒不必过于悲观。
02:41
Three years ago,
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三年前,
02:43
I argued that governments could use the tools
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我呼吁政府使用
02:46
deployed to save the financial system
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挽救金融系统的工具
02:49
to meet other global challenges.
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来应对其他全球性挑战.
02:51
And these arguments are getting stronger, not weaker, with time.
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随着时间推移,这一呼声 并未减弱,而是越来越强。
02:58
Let's take a brief reminder of what those tools looked like.
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让我们来回忆一下有些什么样的工具。
03:03
When the financial crisis hit in 2008,
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2008年金融危机发生时,
03:06
the central banks of the US and UK
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美国和英国的中央银行
03:09
began buying bonds issued by their own governments
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开始购买本国政府发行的债券,
03:12
in a policy known as "quantitative easing."
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这项政策叫做“量化宽松”。
03:15
Depending on what happens to those bonds when they mature,
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当这些债券到期时,
03:19
this is money printing by another name.
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我们发现,这就是在增印钞票。
03:22
And boy, did they print.
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印的还真不少。
03:24
The US alone created four trillion dollars' worth of its own currency.
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单单美国就相当于增发了4万亿美元。
03:29
This was not done in isolation.
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而且不单单是美国一家。
03:31
In a remarkable act of cooperation,
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国际货币基金组织的188个成员国,
03:34
the 188 countries that make up the International Monetary Fund, the IMF,
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紧密团结,精诚合作,
03:38
agreed to issue 250 billion dollars' worth of their own currency --
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相当于增发了2500亿美元的货币——
03:42
the Special Drawing Right --
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以“特别提款权”的形式——
03:45
to boost reserves around the world.
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从而在世界范围内增加储备。
03:47
When the financial crisis moved to Europe,
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当金融危机蔓延至欧洲,
03:51
the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi,
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欧洲中央银行行长马里奥·德拉吉,
03:55
promised "to do whatever it takes."
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承诺“不惜一切代价”。
03:59
And they did.
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他们确实也这么做了。
04:01
The Bank of Japan repeated those words -- that exact same commitment --
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日本银行也做出了同样的承诺,
04:06
to do "whatever it takes" to reflate their economy.
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“不惜一切代价” 来复苏经济。
04:11
In both cases,
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这两个例子中,
04:13
"whatever it takes" meant trillions of dollars more
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所谓的“代价”就是增发数以万亿计的纸币,
04:17
in money-printing policies that continue today.
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这一政策今天还在继续。
04:21
What this shows
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这说明,
04:23
is that when faced with some global challenges,
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在面对某些全球性挑战时,
04:28
policy makers are able to act collectively, with urgency,
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政策制定者能够在危急时刻集体行动,
04:32
and run the risks of unconventional policies like money printing.
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剑走偏锋,制定出类似增发货币这样的政策。
04:39
So, let's go back to that original question:
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好,让我们回到开始的问题:
04:45
Can we print money for climate finance?
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我们可以增发货币用于气候融资吗?
04:49
Three years ago,
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三年前,
04:50
the idea of using money in this way was something of a taboo.
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以这样的方式使用资金是一种禁忌。
04:54
Once you break down and dismantle the idea
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一旦你的观念被转变,
04:57
that money is a finite resource,
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不再认为钱是有限资源,
05:00
governments can quickly get overwhelmed by demands from their people
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政府很快就会就会被人民的需求淹没,
05:05
to print more and more money for other causes:
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为了各种原因不停增发货币:
05:08
education, health care, welfare --
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教育、医疗、福利——
05:10
even defense.
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甚至国防。
05:12
And there are some truly terrible historical examples of money printing --
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而增发货币会带来可怕后果, 历史上有很多例子——
05:17
uncontrolled money printing --
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当然我指的是滥发货币——
05:20
leading to hyperinflation.
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会导致恶性通货膨胀。
05:22
Think: Weimar Republic in 1930;
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回想一下1930年的魏玛共和国,
05:26
Zimbabwe more recently, in 2008,
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以及更近一些的,2008年的津巴布韦,
05:29
when the prices of basic goods like bread are doubling every day.
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生活必需品,比如面包,价格每天翻番。
05:34
But all of this is moving the public debate forward,
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但这一切都在引发公众广泛讨论,
05:39
so much so, that money printing for the people is now discussed openly
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以至于现在人们公开讨论增发货币,
05:45
in the financial media, and even in some political manifestos.
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在金融媒体上,甚至在某些政治宣言中。
05:50
But it's important the debate doesn't stop here,
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但更为重要的是,
05:52
with printing national currencies.
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这些讨论并未局限于增发本国货币。
05:57
Because climate change is a shared global problem,
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由于气候变化是全球性问题,
06:01
there are some really compelling reasons
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我们有特别紧迫的理由,
06:04
why we should be printing that international currency
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来增发国际货币,
06:08
that's issued by the IMF,
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支持国际货币基金组织,
06:10
to fund it.
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应对气候问题。
06:11
The Special Drawing Right, or SDR,
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特别提款权,也就是SDR
06:15
is the IMF's electronic unit of account
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是国际货币基金组织的电子记账单位,
06:18
that governments use to transfer funds amongst each other.
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用于政府间的资金转移。
06:23
Think of it as a peer-to-peer payment network,
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可以把它想象成一个对等式支付网络,
06:26
like Bitcoin, but for governments.
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就像比特币一样,只不过用在政府间。
06:30
And it's truly global.
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而且它真正具有全球性。
06:33
Each of the 188 members of the IMF hold SDR quotas
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188个成员国都有SDR配额
06:38
as part of their foreign exchange reserves.
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作为本国外汇储备的一部分。
06:41
These are national stores of wealth
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它们是国家的财富储备,
06:44
that countries keep to protect themselves against currency crises.
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可以帮助国家应对货币危机。
06:48
And that global nature is why,
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正是这全球性的特点,
06:51
at the height of the financial crisis in 2009,
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使得国际货币基金组织在2009年,
06:55
the IMF issued those extra 250 billion dollars --
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也就是金融危机最严重的时候 增发了2500亿美元——
06:59
because it served as a collective global action
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因为这是一次全球性的集体行动
07:02
that safeguarded countries large and small in one fell swoop.
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一举保护了大大小小的国家,免受冲击。
07:09
But here --
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但接下来,
07:10
here's the intriguing part.
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才是真正耐人寻味的部分。
07:13
More than half of those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009 --
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2009年增发的SDR,其中一大半——
07:18
150 billion dollars' worth --
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大约有1500亿美元——
07:20
went to developed market countries who, for the most part,
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分配给了发达国家,
但它们中的大部分 并不太需要这些外汇储备,
07:24
have a modest need for these foreign exchange reserves,
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07:27
because they have flexible exchange rates.
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因为这些国家执行浮动汇率制度。
07:30
So those extra reserves that were printed in 2009,
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因此,这些2009年增发的配额,
07:34
in the end, for developed market countries at least,
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对于发达国家来说,
07:38
weren't really needed.
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并没有太大意义。
07:40
And they remain unused today.
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直到今天也没有被使用。
07:43
So here's an idea.
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于是我产生了一个想法。
07:45
As a first step,
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首先,
07:47
why don't we start spending those unused,
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为什么我们不将这些2009年增发的,
07:50
those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009,
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尚未使用的特别提款权,
07:53
to combat climate change?
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用来应对气候变化?
07:55
They could, for example,
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比如,
07:57
be used to buy bonds issued by the UN's Green Climate Fund.
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用这笔钱购买联合国发行的绿色气候基金。
08:02
This was a fund created in 2009,
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绿色气候基金设立于2009年,
08:05
following that climate agreement in Copenhagen.
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依据哥本哈根大会气候协议设立。
08:09
And it was designed to channel funds towards developing countries
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其目的是为发展中国家筹集资金
08:14
to meet their climate projects.
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以支持他们的气候项目。
08:16
It's been one of the most successful funds of its type,
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作为同类基金中最成功的一只,
08:19
raising almost 10 billion dollars.
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它已经筹集了近百亿美元。
08:21
But if we use those extra SDRs that were issued,
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如果我们能将增发的SDR使用起来,
08:25
it helps governments get back on track,
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就可以帮助各国政府回归正途,
08:28
to meet that promise of 100 billion dollars a year
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实现因金融风暴而拖欠的
08:31
that was derailed by the financial crisis.
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每年1000亿美元的承诺。
08:35
It could also --
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除此以外——
08:37
it could also serve as a test case.
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我们可以将其视为一次测试。
08:42
If the inflationary consequences of using SDRs in this way are benign,
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如果这么使用SDR不会造成恶性通货膨胀,
08:48
it could be used to justify
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那么我们有理由假设,
08:50
the additional, extra issuance of SDRs, say, every five years,
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如果每五年增发一次SDR,
08:55
again, with the commitment
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当然,这也需要发达国家承诺,
08:57
that developed-market countries would direct their share
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将自己得到的配额,
09:02
of the new reserves
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直接转给
09:03
to the Green Climate Fund.
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绿色气候基金。
09:07
Printing international money in this way has several advantages
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这样发行国际货币比发行本国货币
09:10
over printing national currencies.
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有更多好处。
09:13
The first is it's really easy to argue
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首先,很明显,
09:16
that spending money to mitigate climate change benefits everyone.
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将这笔钱花在应对气候变化上, 对所有人都有益。
09:21
No one section of society benefits from the printing press over another.
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没有哪个国家会因为 多印了些钞票而更加得利。
09:25
That problem of competing claims is mitigated.
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因此大家不用考虑竞争的问题。
09:29
It's also fair to say
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也可以这么说,
09:30
that because it takes so many countries to agree to issue these extra SDRs,
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正因为众多国家一致同意增发SDR,
09:35
it's highly unlikely that money printing would get out of control.
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这件事就不太容易失控。
09:40
What you end up with is a collective, global action
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最终,我们看到的是一项全球性的集体行动,
09:46
aimed -- and it's controlled global action --
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并受全球各国监管,
09:50
aimed at a global good.
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瞄准的是全球共同利益。
09:53
And,
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此外,
09:54
as we've learned with the money-printing schemes,
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因为我们已经了解了货币发行的机制,
09:57
whatever concerns we have can be allayed by rules.
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任何问题和顾虑,都可以通过规则来排除。
10:00
So, for example,
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比如说,
10:02
the issuance of these extra SDRs every five years could be capped,
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可以限制每五年所发行的SDR的总金额,
10:07
such that this international currency is never more than five percent
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使其不超过
全球外汇储备总量的5%。
10:13
of global foreign exchange reserves.
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10:15
That's important because it would allay
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这点很重要,
10:17
well, let's say, the ridiculous concerns that the US might have
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因为这样会减轻美国的担忧,
10:21
that the SDR could ever challenge the dollar's dominant role
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他们老担心增发的SDR
会挑战美元在国际金融市场的主导地位。
10:26
in international finance.
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10:28
And in fact,
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实际上,
10:30
I think the only thing that the SDR would likely steal from the dollar
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在这种体制下,SDR有可能对美元产生的
10:33
under this scheme
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唯一的影响
10:34
is its nickname, the "greenback."
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就是盗用美元的外号,“绿钞票”。
10:38
Because even with that cap in place,
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因为,即使有发行限额的规定,
10:42
the IMF could have followed up its issuance --
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国际货币基金组织 依旧会追踪其发行状况-——
10:45
its massive issuance of SDRs in 2009 --
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无论是2009年的2500亿——
10:48
with a further 200 billion dollars of SDRs in 2014.
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还是2014年追加的2000亿。
10:54
So hypothetically,
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因此,从理论上说,
发达国家能够为绿色气候基金
10:58
that would mean that developed countries could have contributed
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11:01
up to 300 billion dollars' worth of SDRs
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贡献价值约3000亿美元
11:05
to the Green Climate Fund.
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的特别提款权。
11:08
That's 30 times what it has today.
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金额是该基金目前筹款额的30倍。
11:11
And you know,
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而且,
11:12
as spectacular as that sounds,
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尽管这听起来已经相当可观,
11:15
it's only just beginning to look like "whatever it takes."
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却刚刚才有一点“不惜一切代价”的味道。
11:21
And just to think what amazing things could be done with that money,
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想想看,我们可以用这笔钱完成多大的壮举,
11:24
consider this:
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举个例子:
11:26
in 2009,
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在2009年,
11:28
Norway promised one billion dollars of its reserves to Brazil
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挪威承诺,给巴西10亿美元的外汇储备,
11:33
if they followed through on their goals on deforestation.
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只要巴西能达成减少森林砍伐的目标。
11:38
That program has since delivered a 70 percent reduction in deforestation
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这一计划实施十年时间,
已经减少了70%的森林砍伐。
11:44
in the past decade.
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11:46
That's saving 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions,
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相当于减少了32亿吨二氧化碳排放,
11:51
which is the equivalent of taking all American cars off the roads
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相当于让全美国所有的汽车
11:55
for three whole years.
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停驶整整3年。
11:59
So what could we do
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想象一下,
12:01
with 300 other pay-for-performance climate projects like that,
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如果全球再有300个 类似的“按劳取酬”的气候项目,
12:06
organized on a global scale?
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该是多么棒的一件事。
12:09
We could take cars off the roads for a generation.
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相当于让整整一代人的车辆停驶。
12:13
So,
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因此,
12:15
let's not quibble about whether we can afford to fund climate change.
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不要再纠结我们是否 有经济能力来应对气候变化。
12:20
The real question is:
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真正的问题是:
12:23
Do we care enough about future generations
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我们是否足够关心下一代
愿意冒很大的风险去拯救气候。
12:26
to take the very same policy risks we took to save the financial system?
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12:32
After all,
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毕竟,
12:34
we could do it,
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我们能够这么做,
12:36
we did do it
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我们曾经成功过,我们还将继续努力。
12:37
and we are doing it today.
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12:39
We must, must, must do "whatever it takes."
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我们必须真的“不惜一切代价去做”。
12:45
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
12:46
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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