请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Jessie Zhang
校对人员: Jiasi Hao
00:12
It's April of 2007,
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那是 2007 年的 4 月,
00:15
and Jon Corzine,
the Governor of New Jersey,
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新泽西州的州长,
荣·科赞(Jon Corzine),
00:18
is in this horrific car accident.
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陷入了一场可怕的车祸。
00:21
He's in the right front
passenger seat of this SUV
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当他乘坐的那辆 SUV
在花园州高速公路撞毁的时候,
00:23
when it crashes on
the Garden State Parkway.
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他正坐在副驾驶的座位上。
00:26
He's transported
to a New Jersey trauma center
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他被转移到一家新泽西的
创伤治疗中心,
00:28
with multiple broken bones
and multiple lacerations.
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身上伴有多处骨折和撕裂。
00:31
He needs immediate surgery,
seven units of blood,
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他需要立即接受手术、
7 品脱的输血、
00:34
a mechanical ventilator
to help him breathe
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一个帮助他呼吸的呼吸机,
00:36
and several more operations along the way.
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以及即将面临的又几场手术。
00:39
It's amazing he survived.
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他能活下来真的令人震惊。
00:41
But perhaps even more amazing,
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但可能更令人震惊的是,
00:43
he was not wearing a seat belt.
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他当时在车里根本没系安全带。
00:45
And, in fact, he never wore a seat belt,
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事实上,他之前从来不系安全带,
00:47
and the New Jersey state troopers
who used to drive Governor Corzine around
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曾经开车载过科赞州长的
新泽西州巡逻队员
00:51
used to beg him to wear a seat belt,
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曾求着他系上安全带,
00:53
but he didn't do it.
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但是他从来没系过。
其实,在科赞当上
新泽西州州长之前,
00:55
Now, before Corzine
was Governor of New Jersey,
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00:57
he was the US Senator from New Jersey,
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曾是新泽西州的联邦参议员,
再之前,是高盛投资公司的 CEO ,
01:00
and before that, he was
the CEO of Goldman Sachs,
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01:02
responsible for taking
Goldman Sachs public,
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负责高盛的上市,
01:05
making hundreds of millions of dollars.
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并为其赚取了上亿美元。
01:07
Now, no matter what you think
of Jon Corzine politically
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不论你从政治上
还是挣钱方式上
01:10
or how he made his money,
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是如何看待荣·科赞这个人的,
01:12
nobody would say that he was stupid.
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没人会说他是个蠢人。
01:14
But there he was,
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但是你瞧他,
01:15
an unrestrained passenger
in a car accident,
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在每一个美国人都知道
安全带能救命的时候,
01:18
at a time when every American knows
that seat belts save lives.
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他就是那个车祸现场中
不系安全带的人。
01:23
This single story reflects
a fundamental weakness
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这个简单的故事反映出
我们在改善健康行为的方法中
的一个基本的弱点。
01:26
in our approach
to improving health behavior.
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01:29
Nearly everything we tell doctors
and everything we tell patients
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我们告诉医生和病人的
一切东西几乎
01:33
is based on the idea
that we behave rationally.
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都是基于“人类行为是理性的”观点。
01:36
If you give me information, I will process
that information in my head,
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如果你给我信息,
我会在脑袋里分析那个信息,
01:40
and my behavior will change as a result.
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然后我的行为会随之改变。
01:43
Do you think Jon Corzine didn't know
that seat belts save lives?
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你觉得荣·科赞
不知道安全带能救命吗?
你觉得他只是没收到提示便笺吗?
01:47
Do you think he, like,
just didn't get the memo?
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01:49
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:50
Jon Corzine did not have
a knowledge deficit,
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荣·科赞没有知识缺失,
01:53
he had a behavior deficit.
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他有的是行为上的缺失。
01:55
It's not that he didn't know better.
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他不是知道的少,
01:57
He knew better.
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他知道的并不少。
01:58
It's that he didn't do better.
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而他,没能做好。
02:02
Instead, I think the mind
is a high-resistance pathway.
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另外,我认为人的思想
是个抵御性很强的东西。
02:07
Changing someone's mind
with information is hard enough.
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用信息改变一个人的思想
已经够难的了,
用信息改变他们的行为
02:11
Changing their behavior with information
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02:13
is harder still.
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更是难上加难。
02:15
The only way we're going to make
substantial improvements
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我们能在健康和医疗保健方面
02:18
in health and health care
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做出较大改善的唯一方法,
02:20
is to make substantial improvements
in the behavior of health and health care.
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就是尽可能改善人们
在健康和医疗保健方面的行为方式。
02:26
If you hit my patellar tendon
with a reflex hammer,
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如果你用一个反射锤
敲击我的膑腱,
02:29
my leg is going to jerk forward,
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我的腿会向前弹起,
02:31
and it's going to jerk forward
a lot faster and a lot more predictably
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而且会比我自己
想着让它弹起的时候
02:34
than if I had to think about it myself.
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弹得更快,更具可预测性。
这是一种反射行为。
02:37
It's a reflex.
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02:38
We need to look for the equivalent
behavioral reflexes
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我们得找到相似的反射行为,
02:42
and hitch our health care wagon to those.
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并把我们的医疗保健
都靠到这些反射行为上来。
02:45
Turns out, though,
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但实际上,
最常规的激励人们的举措
02:47
that most conventional approaches
to human motivation
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02:50
are based on the idea of education.
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却是建立在“教育”这一理念上的。
02:53
We assume that if people
don't behave as they should,
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我们假定如果人们
没有做出他们应有的行为
02:56
it's because they didn't know any better.
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是因为他们缺乏知识。
“如果人们知道抽烟很危险,
他们就不会抽烟了。”
02:58
"If only people knew that smoking
was dangerous, they wouldn't smoke."
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03:02
Or, we think about economics.
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或者,我们会从经济的角度思考。
03:03
The assumption there is that
we're all constantly calculating
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我们假定自己会不断地计算
03:06
the costs and benefits
of every one of our actions
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我们每一个行为蕴含的
成本和收益,
03:09
and optimizing that to make
the perfectly right, rational decision.
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以及为了收益最大化,
我们会做出完全正确且理性的决定。
03:13
If that were true, then all we need to do
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如果这是真的,所有我们需要的
03:15
is to find the perfect
payment system for doctors
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仅仅是给医生找到
一个完美的付费系统,
03:17
or the perfect co-payments
and deductibles for patients,
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或是能给患者完美计算出
部分承担费用和免赔额,
03:20
and everything would work out.
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然后一切就自然解决了。
03:22
A better approach lies
in behavioral economics.
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行为经济学中
有一个更好的方法。
03:25
Behavioral economists recognize
that we are irrational.
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行为经济学家意识到
我们其实是非理性的。
03:29
Our decisions are based on emotion,
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我们的决定是建立在情绪上的,
03:31
or they're sensitive to framing
or to social context.
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或是被社会环境
或规则框架所影响的。
03:34
We don't always do what's in our own
long-term best interests.
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我们不总是会做出
有利于我们长远利益的行为。
03:38
But the key contribution
to behavioral economics
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但是,对行为经济学最主要的贡献
03:41
is not in recognizing
that we are irrational;
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不是对“人类是非理性的”认识,
而是意识到
“人类的非理性行为是高度可预测的”。
03:44
it's recognizing that we are irrational
in highly predictable ways.
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03:48
In fact, it's the predictability
of our psychological foibles
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事实上,正是我们心理上
那些小缺陷的可预测性
使我们能设计出策略来攻克它们。
03:52
that allows us to design
strategies to overcome them.
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03:55
Forewarned is forearmed.
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预先警告就宛如事先武装。
03:57
In fact, behavioral economists often use
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事实上,行为经济学家
经常精准利用
03:59
precisely the same behavioral
reflexes that get us into trouble
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那些让我们陷入麻烦的
行为反射,
04:03
and turn them around to help us,
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转而让它们来帮助我们,
而不是伤害我们。
04:06
rather than to hurt us.
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04:08
We see irrationality play out
in something called "present bias,"
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我们可以在一种叫做“即时偏误”的
现象中看见非理性的作用,
04:13
where the outcomes in front of us
are much more motivating
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这种现象,是我们正在面对的结果
04:16
than even more important outcomes
far in the future.
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比将来会出现的更重要的结果
更能调动我们的积极性。
04:22
If I'm on a diet --
and I'm always on a diet --
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如果我在节食——
其实我一直在节食——
04:24
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:26
and someone offers me a luscious-looking
piece of chocolate cake,
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这时有人给了我一个
看上去很美味的巧克力蛋糕,
04:30
I know I should not
eat that chocolate cake.
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我知道我不应该吃那个蛋糕。
04:34
That chocolate cake will land
on that part of my body -- permanently --
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那块巧克力蛋糕会沉积在
我身体中——永远——
04:38
where that kind of food naturally settles.
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就在这类食物会自然沉积
的身体部位上。
04:41
But the chocolate cake
looks so good and delicious,
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但是那块巧克力蛋糕
看起来如此美味,
而且它就在我的眼前,
04:44
and it's right in front of me,
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04:45
and the diet can wait 'til tomorrow.
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那节食可以明天再说了。
04:47
I used to love the comedian Steven Wright.
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我曾经很喜欢一个喜剧演员,
史蒂文·赖特。
04:49
He would have these Zen-like quips.
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他经常说些很有禅意的玩笑话。
04:52
My favorite one was this:
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我最喜欢的是这个:
04:54
"Hard work pays off in the future,
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“努力了将来会有回报,
04:56
but laziness pays off right now."
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但是懒惰了现在就会有回报。”
04:58
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:00
And patients also have present bias.
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患者也有即时偏误。
05:03
If you have high blood pressure,
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如果你有高血压,
05:04
even if you would desperately
like to avoid a stroke,
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即使你极度想避免中风,
05:07
and you know that taking
your antihypertensive medications
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而且你知道吃降血压药
05:10
is one of the best ways
to reduce that risk,
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是降低这种风险最有效的方式之一,
05:13
the stroke you avoid is far in the future
and taking medications is right now.
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然而,中风是很久以后可能发生的事,
而吃药则是现在要做的。
05:18
Almost half of the patients who are
prescribed high blood pressure pills
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几乎有一半开了降血压药的患者
05:22
stop taking them within a year.
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在一年内就停止了服药。
想想如果我们单单解决这一个问题
05:25
Think of how many lives we could save
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就能拯救多少生命。
05:27
if we could solve just that one problem.
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05:31
We also tend to overestimate
the value of small probabilities.
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我们也容易高估小概率事件的价值。
05:36
This actually explains
why state lotteries are so popular,
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这也许能解释为什么国营彩票
即使回报极小,
05:39
even though they return
pennies on the dollar.
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却依旧这么受欢迎。
05:41
Now, some of you
may buy lottery tickets --
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在座的一些人可能会买彩票——
05:43
it's fun, there's the chance
you might strike it rich ...
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买彩票挺有意思的,
你有可能中大奖、变富有——
05:46
But let's face it:
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但是咱们清醒一点吧:
05:47
this would be a horrible way
to invest your retirement savings.
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这可能是个花掉你养老金的
很糟糕的方式。
05:51
I once saw a bumper sticker --
I am not making this up -- that said,
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我曾经看到过一张车尾贴——
这不是我编的——写着,
05:55
"State lotteries are a special tax
on people who can't do math."
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“国营彩票是向不会
数学计算的人征收的智商税”。
06:00
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:01
It's not that we can't do the math,
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我们并不是不会做数学计算,
06:03
it's that we can't feel the math.
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我们是感受不到这种计算。
06:06
And we also pay much too much
attention to regret.
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而且我们花太多精力在后悔上。
06:09
We all hate the feeling of missing out.
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我们都痛恨错过机会的感觉。
06:12
So, actually, there was
this recent lottery,
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所以,事实上,最近有个彩票,
06:14
a mega-jackpot lottery,
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大乐透彩票,
06:16
that had a huge payoff,
something like over a billion dollars.
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回报超高,大概超过 10 亿美元。
06:19
And everyone in my office
is pooling money to buy lottery tickets,
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我办公室里的每个人都在
掏钱集资买彩票,
06:22
and I'm not having any of this.
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我一点都不理解。
06:23
There I am, like, swaggering
around the office,
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我在办公室里转悠,嚷嚷着:
06:26
"Lotteries are a special tax
on people who can't do math."
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“彩票是向不会数学计算的人
征收的智商税。”
06:29
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:30
And then it hits me:
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然后一个想法击中了我:
06:31
uh oh.
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啊呀,
06:33
What if they win?
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万一他们中奖了呢?
06:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:36
I'm the only one who shows up
at work the next day.
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我就成了第二天唯一来上班的人了。
(笑声)
06:39
(Laughter)
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不是我不想让我的同事中奖。
06:40
Now, it's not that I didn't want
my colleagues to win.
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06:42
I just didn't want them to win without me.
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我只是不想让他们丢下我,自己中奖。
06:45
Now, it would have been easier
if I had just taken my 20-dollar bill
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如果我当初拿出一张 20 美元钞票
直接塞进办公室的碎纸机里,
06:49
and put it into the office shredder,
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事情本会简单很多,
而且结果也会是一样的。
06:51
and the results would have been the same.
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即使我知道我不应该参与,
06:53
Even though I knew
I shouldn't participate,
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06:55
I handed over my $20 bill,
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我还是递出了 20 美元钞票,
之后我再也没见过它。
06:58
and I never saw it again.
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07:00
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:01
We've done a bunch
of experiments with patients
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我们和患者做过一些实验。
07:04
in which we give them
these electronic pill bottles
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我们给患者们电子药瓶,
07:07
so we can tell whether
they're taking their medication or not.
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以便于知道他们是否在吃药。
07:10
And we reward them with a lottery.
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我们用彩票奖励他们。
07:13
They get prizes.
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他们能得到奖品。
07:15
But they only get prizes
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但他们只有在前一天吃药的情况下
07:17
if they had taken
their medication the day before.
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才能得到奖品。
07:20
If not, they get a message
that says something like,
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如果没吃,他们会收到
一条诸如此类的信息:
07:23
"You would have won a hundred dollars,
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“你本来能赢 100 美金,
但是你昨天没吃药,
所以你没法得到这笔钱。”
07:25
but you didn't take your medicine
yesterday, so you don't get it."
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07:28
Well, it turns out, patients hate that.
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事实证明,患者们痛恨那种感觉。
07:30
They hate the sense of missing out,
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他们痛恨错过的感觉,
07:32
and because they can anticipate
that feeling of regret
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而且因为他们能预判到
那种悔恨的感觉,
07:35
and they'd like to avoid it,
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于是想要尽量避开它,
07:37
they're much more likely
to take their medications.
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所以他们更有可能会吃药了。
掌控那种痛恨后悔的感觉是有用的。
07:40
Harnessing that sense
of hating regret works.
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07:43
And it leads to the more general point,
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它引出了更一般化的观点,
07:46
which is: once you recognize
how people are irrational,
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即:一旦你认识到人是非理性的,
07:50
you're in a much better
position to help them.
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你就会处于一个
能够更好地帮助他们的位置。
07:54
Now, this kind of irrationality works out
even in men's restrooms.
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这种非理性
甚至在男厕所也能用得上。
在座的不常光顾小便池的人,
07:59
So, for those of you
who don't frequent urinals,
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08:03
let me break this down for you.
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让我给你们解析一下。
08:05
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:06
There is pee all over the floor.
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地板上全是尿。
08:08
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:11
And it turns out that you
can solve this problem
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事实证明,你只要在小便池上
蚀刻一个苍蝇的形象,
08:13
by etching the image of a fly
in the back of the urinal.
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就能解决这个问题。
08:17
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑声)
(掌声)
08:21
And it makes perfect sense.
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这完全说得通。
08:22
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:24
If I see a fly,
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如果我看见一只苍蝇,
我一定要射中那只苍蝇。
08:26
I'm gonna get that fly.
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08:27
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:31
That fly is going down.
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那只苍蝇会被冲入下水道。
08:33
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:34
Now, this naturally begs the question
that if men can aim,
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这自然地引出了一个问题:
如果男人们上厕所时能瞄准,
08:38
why were they peeing
on the floor in the first place?
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他们一开始为什么要尿到地上?
08:40
In fact, if they were going
to pee on the floor,
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2264
实际上,如果他们
本来就打算尿到地上,
又为什么要跑到小便池前面去尿?
08:43
why pee in front of the urinal?
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你可以在任何地方尿。
08:44
You could pee anywhere.
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08:45
(Laughter)
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1038
(笑声)
08:46
And the same thing works in health care.
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同样的道理也适用于医疗保健。
08:50
We had a problem in our hospital
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我们医院当时有个这样的问题:
08:52
in which the physicians
were prescribing brand-name drugs
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当普通药可供选择的时,
08:57
when a generic drug was available.
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医生们却一直在开品牌药。
08:59
Each one of the lines on this graph
represents a different drug.
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3842
这张图上的每条线
代表一种不同的药物。
09:03
And they're listed according to how often
they're prescribed as generic medications.
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4149
这些药根据被当做普通药开
的频率被列了出来。
09:07
Those are the top are prescribed
as generics 100 percent of the time.
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位于顶部的,
是一直都被当做普通药开的。
下面那些,
不到 20% 的机率
09:11
Those down at the bottom
are prescribed as generics
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09:13
less than 20 percent of the time.
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1585
是被当做普通药开的。
09:15
And we'd have meetings with clinicians
and all sorts of education sessions,
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我们跟临床医师们开过会,
也办过各种教学会议,
09:18
and nothing worked --
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但是都没用——
09:19
all the lines are pretty much horizontal.
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所有的这些线,几乎都没变。
09:22
Until, someone installed
a little piece of software
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3213
直到,有个人在电子健康记录表里
安装了一个小软件,
09:26
in the electronic health record
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1730
09:27
that defaulted the prescriptions
to generic medications
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3786
把处方设置为默认开普通药,
09:31
instead of the brand-name drugs.
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1876
而非品牌药。
09:34
Now, it doesn't take a statistician
207
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1745
现在,不用统计分析员
09:35
to see that this problem
was solved overnight,
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3053
也能看出来,
问题一夜之间就解决了,
09:38
and it has stayed solved ever since.
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2513
而且之后再没有出现此类问题。
09:41
In fact, in the two and a half years
since this program started,
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3384
事实上,
在这个项目上线的两年半内,
09:44
our hospital has saved 32 million dollars.
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3010
我们医院
已经省下了 3200 万美元。
09:47
Let me say that again: 32 million dollars.
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587928
3463
让我再说一遍:
3200 万美元。
09:51
And all we did was make it easier
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591415
2957
我们所做的,只不过是
把医生们一直以来想做的事
09:54
for the doctors to do what they
fundamentally wanted to do all along.
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5191
变得容易做了而已。
10:00
It also works to play into
people's notions of loss.
215
600587
4414
利用人们对损失的概念也有用。
10:06
We did this with a contest
to help people walk more.
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3410
我们办了场比赛
来帮助人们走更多路。
10:10
We wanted everyone to walk
at least 7,000 steps,
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3880
我们想让每个人至少走 7 千步,
10:14
and we measured their step count
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1564
我们也用他们手机上的计步器
10:16
with the accelerometer
on their cell phone.
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2276
以记录他们行走的步数。
10:19
Group A, the control group,
just got told whether they had walked
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3285
A 组,控制变量组,
仅被告知他们
是否走够 7 千步。
10:22
7,000 steps or not.
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1689
10:25
Group B got a financial incentive.
222
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2939
B 组,有金钱刺激。
10:28
We gave them $1.40 for every day
they walked 7,000 steps.
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4491
每天如果他们走了 7 千步,
我们就奖励他们 1.4 美金。
10:33
Group C got the same financial incentive,
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2140
C组,有相同的金钱刺激,
10:35
but it was framed as a loss
rather than a gain:
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3322
但这种刺激被包装成损失
而不是收益:
10:38
$1.40 a day is 42 dollars a month,
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2798
每天 1.4 美金
即 42 美金一个月,
10:41
so we gave these participants 42 dollars
at the beginning of each month
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4257
所以在每个月的头一天
我们给这些参与者 42 美金,
10:45
in a virtual account that they could see,
228
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2180
就放在他们能看见的虚拟账户里,
然后如果他们每天没走够 7 千步,
我们就从账户里取走 1.4 美金。
10:48
and we took away $1.40 for every day
they didn't walk 7,000 steps.
229
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4338
10:52
Now, an economist would say
that those two financial incentives
230
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3125
一个经济学家可能会说,
这两种金钱刺激的结果
10:55
are the same.
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1327
是一样的。
10:57
For every day you walk 7,000 steps,
you're $1.40 richer.
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657319
4016
因为每天你走够 7 千步的话,
你都能赚 1.4 美金。
11:01
But a behavioral economist
would say that they're different,
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2945
但是一个行为经济学家会说,
它们的结果是不同的,
11:04
because we're much more motivated
to avoid a $1.40 loss
234
664647
4177
因为我们为避免损失 1.4 美金
会比赚取 1.4 美金
11:08
than we are motivated
to achieve a $1.40 gain.
235
668848
3250
来得更有动力。
实验结果也确实如此。
11:12
And that's exactly what happened.
236
672122
1878
11:14
Those in the group that received $1.40
for every day they walked 7,000 steps
237
674579
4189
那些每天因为走 7 千步
而收到 1.4 美金的人
11:18
were no more likely to meet their goal
than the control group.
238
678792
3107
并不比控制变量组(没有金钱激励)
更能达到目标。
11:21
The financial incentive didn't work.
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2087
金钱刺激没能起作用。
而那些受到损失刺激的人
11:24
But those who had a loss-framed incentive
240
684034
2557
11:26
met their goal 50 percent
more of the time.
241
686615
3160
则有 50% 更高的可能
完成目标。
11:29
It doesn't make economic sense,
but it makes psychological sense,
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689799
3502
这在经济学上说不通,
但在心理学上是说得通的,
11:33
because losses loom larger than gains.
243
693325
2609
因为损失比收益带来的刺激更大。
11:35
And now we're using loss-framed incentives
to help patients walk more,
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695958
4164
现在我们已经在用这种损失刺激法
去帮助患者走更多路、
11:40
lose weight
245
700146
1268
减肥,
11:41
and take their medications.
246
701438
1748
以及吃药了。
11:43
Money can be a motivator.
247
703815
1644
钱可以是一个激励因素,
11:46
We all know that.
248
706176
1165
我们都知道这一点。
11:47
But it's far more influential
when it's paired with psychology.
249
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4572
但当它与心理学配对使用时
更具有影响力。
11:52
And money, of course,
has its own disadvantages.
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712728
2290
当然,金钱有其自身缺点。
我最喜欢的例子,
说的是一个日托项目。
11:55
My favorite example of this
involves a daycare program.
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3557
11:59
The greatest sin you can commit in daycare
is picking up your kids late.
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719260
4646
你能在日托中犯下的最大的罪孽
就是接孩子接晚了。
12:04
No one is happy.
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724390
1484
没人开心。
12:05
Your kids are crying
because you don't love them.
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725898
2363
你的孩子在哭,因为你不爱他们。
12:08
(Laughter)
255
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1166
(笑声)
12:09
The teachers are unhappy
because they leave work late.
256
729475
2663
老师不开心,因为他们下班晚了。
12:12
And you feel terribly guilty.
257
732162
1731
你也觉得极其内疚。
12:14
This daycare program in Israel
decided they wanted to stop this problem,
258
734496
3694
以色列的这个日托项目
就想解决这个问题,
12:18
and they did something that many
daycare programs in the US do,
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738214
3009
而且他们做的,
是许多美国日托项目也在做的事,
12:21
which is they installed
a fine for late pickups.
260
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2530
就是给晚接孩子的人设置罚款。
12:23
And the fine they chose was 10 shekels,
261
743801
3076
他们把罚款定为
10 谢克尔(以色列货币单位),
12:26
which is about three bucks.
262
746901
1620
大概相当于 3 美元。
12:29
And guess what happened?
263
749257
1272
猜猜然后发生了什么?
12:31
Late pickups increased.
264
751191
1921
晚接孩子的情况恶化了。
12:34
And if you think about it,
it makes perfect sense.
265
754200
2603
如果你仔细想想的话,
这完全说得通。
12:37
What a deal!
266
757200
1152
多合适的买卖啊!
12:38
For 10 shekels --
267
758376
1167
10 谢克尔——
12:39
(Laughter)
268
759567
1282
(笑声)
12:40
you can keep my kids all night!
269
760873
1744
你就能一晚上不用接孩子!
12:42
(Laughter)
270
762641
2548
(笑声)
家长们卯足了内在动机,
准时接孩子,
12:45
They took a perfectly strong
intrinsic motivation not to be late,
271
765213
3977
结果日托机构
把这个动机因素变得廉价了。
12:49
and they cheapened it.
272
769214
1309
12:50
What's worse, when they
realized their mistake
273
770999
2772
更糟的是,
当日托机构意识到自己的错误,
12:53
and they took away
the financial incentive,
274
773795
2556
把迟到罚款的规则撤回时,
12:56
the late pickups still stayed
at the high level.
275
776375
2597
晚接孩子的情况丝毫没有改观。
12:58
They had already poisoned
the social contract.
276
778996
3113
他们已经毒害了社会契约。
13:02
Health care is full
of strong intrinsic motivations.
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3743
医疗保健充满了强大的内在动机。
13:05
We have doctors and patients
who already want to do the right thing.
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4011
医生和患者本身就想做正确的事。
13:09
Financial incentives can help,
279
789935
2929
金钱刺激也有正面作用。
13:12
but we shouldn't expect
money in health care
280
792888
2205
但是我们不能盼着
金钱能在医疗保健中
承担全部的重任。
13:15
to do all of the heavy lifting.
281
795117
1952
相反,对健康行为
最有效的影响因素
13:18
Instead, perhaps the most powerful
influencers of health behavior
282
798014
4490
13:22
are our social interactions.
283
802528
1967
可能是我们的社会互动。
13:24
Social engagement works in health care,
284
804519
2500
社会参与在医疗保健中是起作用的,
主要体现在两个方面。
13:27
and it works in two directions.
285
807043
2187
13:29
First, we fundamentally care
what others think of us.
286
809684
4861
第一,我们本能地在意
别人对我们的看法。
13:34
And so one of the most powerful ways
to change our behavior
287
814569
3577
所以改变我们行为
最有效的方法之一
13:38
is to make our activities
witnessable to others.
288
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3263
就是让我们的行为能被别人看见。
13:41
We behave differently
when we're being observed
289
821792
2417
我们在被观察,
和不在被观察时候的行为表现
13:44
than when we're not.
290
824233
1294
是不同的。
13:45
I've been to some restaurants
that don't have sinks in the bathrooms.
291
825551
3299
我去过几个饭店,
它们厕所里没有水槽,
13:48
Instead, when you step out,
the sink is outside
292
828874
2204
但当你走出来,水槽在外面,
在饭店的主要位置,
13:51
in the main part of the restaurant,
293
831102
1703
13:52
where everyone can see
whether you wash your hands or not.
294
832829
2741
这时候所有人都能看见
你洗没洗手。
我不是很确定,
13:55
Now, I don't know for sure,
295
835594
1315
13:56
but I am convinced
that handwashing is much greater
296
836933
2483
但我敢保证在那些特定环境下
洗手的人变多了。
13:59
in those particular settings.
297
839440
1400
14:00
We are always on our best behavior
when we're being observed.
298
840864
3134
我们在被观察的时候,
总能表现出最好的行为。
14:04
In fact, there was this amazing study
299
844373
1839
事实上,在佛罗里达一家医院
的重症监护室里,
进行了一项很棒的研究。
14:06
that was done in an intensive care unit
in a Florida hospital.
300
846236
3063
14:09
The handwashing rates were very low,
which is dangerous, of course,
301
849728
3177
这里的洗手率非常低,
当然,这很危险,
14:12
because it can spread infection.
302
852929
1683
因为该行为
会传播疾病,导致感染。
14:15
And so some researchers pasted
a picture of someone's eyes over the sink.
303
855056
4650
所以一些研究员在水槽上
贴了一张人眼的照片。
14:20
It wasn't a real person,
it was just a photograph.
304
860288
2352
那不是一个真人,只是一张照片。
14:22
In fact, it wasn't even their whole face,
it was just their eyes looking at you.
305
862664
3788
实际上,那甚至都不是一整张脸,
只是一双眼睛看着你。
(笑声)
14:26
(Laughter)
306
866476
1048
14:27
Handwashing rates more than doubled.
307
867548
1737
洗手率翻了不止一倍。
我们似乎是如此在意
别人对我们的看法,
14:29
It seems we care so much
what other people think of us
308
869309
2940
14:32
that our behavior improves
309
872273
1452
以至于我们的行为会就此改进,
14:33
even if we merely imagine
that we're being observed.
310
873749
3186
即使我们仅仅只是
想象我们在被别人观察着。
14:37
And not only do we care
what others think of us,
311
877556
3162
而且我们不只是在意
别人怎么看我们,
14:40
we fundamentally model our behaviors
on what we see other people do.
312
880742
4549
我们还会本能地模仿他人行为。
14:45
And it all comes back to seat belts.
313
885898
1806
这一切又回到安全带上来了。
14:48
When I was a kid, I used to love
the "Batman" TV series with Adam West.
314
888552
5187
我小的时候,喜欢看亚当·韦斯特
演的电视剧《蝙蝠侠》。
14:54
Everything that Batman
and Robin did was so cool,
315
894246
2855
蝙蝠侠和罗宾做的所有事都特酷,
14:57
and, of course, the Batmobile
was the coolest thing of all.
316
897125
3133
当然了,蝙蝠车是所有事情里最酷的。
15:00
Now, that show aired from 1966 to 1968,
317
900282
4205
那个电视剧从 1966 年播到 1968 年,
15:04
and at that time, seat belts
were optional accessories in cars.
318
904511
3807
在那个年代,安全带
还是车里可有可无的配件。
15:08
But the producers of that show
did something really important.
319
908892
2960
但是那个电视剧的出品人
做了一件非常重要的事。
15:11
When Batman and Robin
got in the Batmobile,
320
911876
2797
当蝙蝠侠和罗宾坐上那辆蝙蝠车时,
15:14
the camera would focus on their laps,
321
914697
1785
相机会聚焦到他们腿上,
15:16
and you would see Batman and Robin
put on their seat belts.
322
916506
2890
然后你会看到蝙蝠侠和罗宾
系上了他们的安全带。
15:19
Now, if Batman and Robin
put on their seat belts,
323
919420
2302
如果蝙蝠侠和罗宾
系上了安全带,
15:21
you can bet that I was going to wear
my seat belt, too.
324
921746
2652
你可以打赌
我也会系上我的安全带。
15:24
I bet that show saved thousands of lives.
325
924422
2447
我打赌那个电视剧
拯救了上千条生命。
15:26
And again, it works in health care, too.
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再次,这在医疗保健中也能起作用。
15:29
Doctors use antibiotics more appropriately
when they see how other doctors use them.
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5802
在看见别的医生如何使用抗生素后,
医生自己能更加适当地使用抗生素。
15:35
So many activities in health care
are hidden, they're unwitnessed,
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4694
医疗保健中的许多行动
是隐匿的,别人看不见。
但医生是社会动物,
15:40
but doctors are social animals,
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2153
15:42
and they perform better
when they see what other doctors do.
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4474
因此当他们能看见其他医生的做法时,
他们自己也能表现得更好。
15:47
So social influence works in health care.
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2423
所以社会影响在医疗保健中
是有积极作用的,
15:49
So does tying it to notions of regret
or to loss aversion.
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949802
3594
把它与后悔感和损失规避
联系起来也是大有裨益的。
15:53
We would never think of using these tools
if we thought that everyone was rational
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5305
如果我们认为每个人
时刻都是理性的,
那我们永远不会想到
利用这些工具。
15:59
all the time.
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1522
16:00
Now, just to be clear:
I am not condemning rationality.
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3171
这里我要澄清一点:
我不是在指责理性。
16:03
I mean, that really would be irrational.
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1978
这才会是真正的不理性。
16:06
But we all know that it's
the nonrational parts of our minds
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4672
但我们都知道,
正是我们思想中那些不理性的部分
16:11
where we get courage,
creativity, inspiration
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3521
给予我们勇气、创造力、灵感,
16:14
and everything else that sparks passion.
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2126
以及其他一切能激发激情的东西。
16:17
And we know something else, too.
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1857
我们还知道一些别的。
16:19
We know that we can be much more effective
at improving health behavior
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3715
我们知道如果我们能
与天性中不理性的部分合作,
16:24
if we work with the irrational
parts of our nature
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3711
而不是忽视、或跟它们反着来,
16:27
instead of ignoring them
or fighting against them.
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我们就能更有效地改善
我们的健康行为。
16:30
When it comes to health care,
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1834
当谈到医疗保健时,
16:32
understanding our irrationality
is just another tool in our toolbox.
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5233
理解我们的非理性
只是工具箱中的一个工具。
而掌控这种非理性——
16:38
And harnessing that irrationality --
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2418
16:40
that may be the most rational move of all.
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3765
或许才是所有行为中最理性的。
16:44
Thank you.
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1194
谢谢。
16:45
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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