Big data, small farms and a tale of two tomatoes | Erin Baumgartner

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

翻译人员: Shuang Yang 校对人员: Meng Ren

So data and analytics are dramatically changing our everyday lives.

数据和分析正以惊人的程度 改变着我们的日常生活。

Not just online,

不只是在网络上，

not just in some distant future,

不只是在遥远的未来，

but in the physical world,

而就在实体世界中，

and in very real and tangible ways.

在非常真实可触的方面。

I spent the past 11 years of my life as a geek at MIT,

过去 11 年，我都在 麻省理工学院的大数据实验室里

过着极客的生活，

working in big data labs

that seek to use data science to study the physical world

我想用数据科学来研究实体世界，

and try to solve society's great problems.

并尝试解决社会上的重大问题。

The field of big data seeks to analyze massive pools of data

大数据领域尝试使用计算工具

using computational tools to find patterns and trends.

分析大数据池， 摸清规律和趋势。

Data can be a really extraordinary storyteller,

数据讲述故事的能力非比寻常，

unveiling the hidden narratives of things in our everyday lives

它们可以揭露我们日常生活中 鲜为人知的事实，

that we never would have seen.

有些我们甚至闻所未闻。

I find the personal stories of inanimate things brought to life

我发现，那些无生命的物体 被数据赋予生命后，

to be extraordinarily compelling.

能讲述出引人入胜的故事。

I want to highlight, first, two projects from my time at MIT

我想先谈谈我在麻省理工 进行的两个课题，

that I think highlight this phenomenon really well.

我觉得它们可以 很好地佐证这种说法。

The first is called Trash Track,

第一个课题叫做“垃圾追踪”，

and in this project, we sought to better understand the waste-management system,

在这个课题中，我们期望 可以更好地了解垃圾处理体系，

to answer the question

借以回答

"Where does your trash go when you throw it away?"

“垃圾被丢弃后去了哪里？” 这个问题。

Your old coffee cup or that flip phone

你的旧咖啡杯，

或是在 21 世纪初 你每天携带的翻盖手机，

that you carried around in the early 2000s,

or a bagel or this morning's paper --

或是一个面包圈， 或是今天早上的报纸——

where do these things go?

它们都去了哪里？

This data didn't exist, so we had to create it.

现成的数据并不存在， 所以我们必须自己来创建。

We answered and then visualized this question

通过在垃圾上安装微小传感器，

再将它们投入垃圾系统，

by installing small sensors into pieces of trash

and then throwing them into the waste system.

我们回答了这个问题， 并将答案可视化。

And what you're seeing here is the data.

各位看到的这些就是数据。

Every line, every node that you see

每个线条、每个节点

is a single piece of trash moving through the city of Seattle,

都是一件垃圾在几周、几个月内

and then across the state,

在西雅图市内，

and then across the country,

继而跨州，

as weeks and months go by.

继而跨国的运行轨迹。

And it's important to visualize this data,

将这份数据可视化非常重要，

because none of you are, probably, sitting here thinking,

因为在座可能没有人会觉得

"Yeah, that looks right."

"没错，看起来挺合理的。"

(Laughter)

（笑声）

"That's working like it should, right?"

“应该就是这样的，对吧？”

Because, no --

因为，并非如此——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What the data shows us is a highly inefficient system

这份数据向我们展示的 是一个非常低效的体系，

whose inherent brokenness I don't think we really would have seen

如果没有传感器为我们提供数据，

had the sensors not done the journalism for us.

我们就不可能发现 该体系中固有的弊端。

A second project that I'd have to highlight

我要展示的第二个课题

has to do with creating robots that dive into sewers

是制造机器人，

并将它们放入 排水管道和废水样本中。

and sample wastewater.

I know that sewage kind of gets a bad rap,

我知道污水听起来有点倒胃口，

but it's actually kind of awesome,

但实际上它非常有用，

because it can tell us an incredible amount

因为它可以告诉我们

about the health of our communities.

很多有关社区人口的健康数据。

This technology was spun out by a group call Biobot Analytics,

这种技术由打造尖端科技的组织

who's creating a cutting-edge technology

Biobot Analytics（生物科技分析）提供。

to turn our sewers into modern-day health observatories.

他们将我们的排水管 改造成了现代健康观察室。

Their goal is to study opioids within the sewage

他们的目的就是研究 污水中的类鸦片物质，

to better understand consumption in cities.

从而更好地理解 它们在城市中的消耗量。

And this data is key,

这份数据很关键，

because it really helps cities understand where people are using,

因为，随着时间的推移， 它的确能让管理者更好地理解

how to allocate resources

人们都把资源用在了哪里， 如何分配，

and the effectiveness of programming over time.

以及市政工程的有效性。

Once again, the technology that's built into this machine

在机器中用到的技术也同样

is pulling back the curtain

向我们呈现出，

and showing us something about our cities that we never would have seen without it.

如果没有它，我们绝不可能知晓的 有关我们城市的信息。

So it turns out, as we see,

正如我们所见，

that big data is really everywhere --

大数据无处不在，

even in your toilet.

即便是在马桶中。

And so now that we've talked about trash and sewage,

聊过了垃圾和废水，

let's move on ...

我们接下来谈谈

to food.

食物。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

A year ago, I left MIT to pursue a passion in food,

一年前，为了追寻我对美食的热情， 我离开了麻省理工。

and in 2017,

2017 年，

started a company with my husband, called Family Dinner.

我和丈夫合开了一家公司， 叫“家常晚饭”。

The goal of our company is to create community around local food

我们公司的宗旨是 围绕本地食材

and the people who grow it.

和种植食材的人， 创建一个社区。

To make this happen, we're using data analytics,

为了实现这个目标， 我们运用数据分析、

automation and technology

自动化和各种技术，

to build a distributed network of local farms

打造了一个本地农场的分布网，

and to make improvements on the food system.

并为食品系统做出了一些改善。

So what we see here

我们发现。

is that the broad techniques and the mission of what we're trying to do

我们所使用的各种方法 和想达成的目标，

is really not dissimilar from the work at the MIT labs.

和麻省理工实验室里的研究工作 没什么本质区别。

Which brings us to a critical question:

这让我们不禁开始思考 一个严峻的问题：

Why exactly would someone leave a very promising career

为什么会有人愿意放弃 世界顶尖科学实验室里的

at one of the top urban science labs in the world

一份大有前途的工作，

to drive carrots around in her mom's Acura?

反而开着她老妈的车 到处运胡萝卜呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's a great car.

那车真不错。

Because I believe that the story of local food

因为，我坚信本地食品的故事

needs to be understood, told and elevated,

值得被理解、被传播和被升华。

and in many ways,

而且，出于各种原因，

I think that nerds like us are really uniquely poised to tell it.

像我们这样的书呆子 刚好非常适合做这件事儿。

So where are we starting?

那么，我们从哪里着手呢？

What's our starting point?

我们从哪里开始？

The current national food system is optimized for one thing only,

目前国家的食品体系 只以一件事为优化目标，

and that's corporate profit, right?

那就是企业利益，对吧？

And think about that.

但是你细想一下，

The most compelling reason for food companies to exist

食品公司存在的最有力的理由，

is not to feed hungry people,

并不是养活饥饿的人，

it's not to make delicious-tasting food.

也不是做出美味的食物，

It's profit.

而是盈利。

And that has detrimental effects at all levels of our food system.

这一点对我们的食品体系的各个层面 都有着不利影响。

The antibiotics and pesticides that are being put into our food

在食品中加入的 抗生素和杀虫剂，

are detrimental to our health.

对我们的健康有害。

Price pressure is forcing small farms out of business.

过分压价让小农场纷纷破产。

In fact, a lot of the things that you think about farms

实际上，你能想到的 很多关于农场的事，

no longer exist.

都不复存在了。

Farms don't look like farms, they look like factories.

农场不再像农场， 反而像是工厂。

And at the end of the day,

而最终，

the quality of the food that we're eating really suffers, too.

我们吃进口中的食品质量 也着实令人担忧。

A factory-farm tomato may kind of look like a regular tomato:

工业农场的西红柿 也许看起来和普通西红柿差不多：

bright red exterior ...

都有亮红色的外皮。

But when you bite into it,

但是，当你咬一口之后，

the taste and texture just leave you wanting.

它的味道和质感 就会让你非常不满意。

And we know that perhaps the greatest tragedy in all of this

并且，我们都知道， 在食品产业，

is that between 30 and 40 percent of this food is just wasted ...

最令人无法接受的就是， 这样的食物有三到四成都被浪费了，

thrown away.

被白白扔掉了，

That is 1.6 billion tons.

足足有 16 亿吨。

I can't even wrap my head around that number.

我甚至无法想象这个数字有多大。

1.6 billion tons.

整整 16 亿吨啊。

That's 1.2 trillion dollars a year

每年有价值 12000 亿美元的食物

in wasted food.

被浪费掉了。

That is the cost of on-demand eating

这就是我们为即需即食、

and convenience

生活便利、 和破洞百出的食品体系，

and the broken food system.

所要付出的代价。

Now, where's this waste happening?

那么，这种浪费出现在哪里呢？

Where's all this waste coming from?

它们是从哪里来的？

Well, we know that it happens in the field

我们知道它出现在

when you don't pick the sexiest-looking potatoes.

你放弃采摘 模样最好看的土豆的田地里，

We know that it happens in transit,

我们知道它出现在运输过程中，

at the warehouses,

在仓库里，

in the grocery stores.

在便利店里。

And finally, on our own kitchen counters,

最后，当我们觉得 那根斑斑点点的棕褐色香蕉

when we determine that that spotty, brown banana no longer looks so yummy.

不再诱人了的时候，浪费也出现在了 我们自家的厨房台面上。

All that waste, all that effort.

花费了好大力气， 浪费了好多食物。

Food is planted,

食物被种植、

grown, harvested, shipped,

生长、收获和运输，

and then just thrown away.

随后就被扔掉了。

We think that there has to be a better way.

我们觉得应该有更好的办法。

And so how to we improve upon this?

那么我们如何改善呢？

How do we make a better system?

我们如何创建更完善的体系呢？

In order to do this,

为了达成这一点，

we understand that we need to eliminate waste

我们认为应该在食品供应链中

in the food supply chain.

杜绝浪费。

We need to get data in the hands of farmers,

我们需要让农民们获得数据，

so that they can make better predictions.

这样他们才能做出更好的预测。

So they can, you know, kind of compete with the big guy.

这样他们才能和大公司抗衡。

And then finally,

最终，我们作为一个公司

we need to prize, as a company,

应该把品质和口感

quality and taste above everything,

放在最重要的位置。

so that people really value the delicious food on their plates.

这样人们才会珍惜 自己盘子里可口的食物。

This, we believe, is the better system.

我们认为这样才是更好的体系。

This is the better way.

这才是更好的未来。

And the path to that better way is paved with data.

而通向更好未来的路 是由数据铺设的。

To highlight all of this, I want to tell the tale of two tomatoes.

为了强调以上的种种， 我想讲两个西红柿的故事。

We'll talk about them one by one.

我们一个一个地说。

A tomato in itself contains a beautiful snapshot

一颗西红柿本身 就是自己的完美注解，

of everything you might want to know about the life cycle of that fruit:

蕴含了有关那颗果实的 生命循环的一切信息：

where it was grown, what it was treated with,

它在哪里生长， 被如何培养，

nutritional value,

它的营养价值，

miles traveled to get to your plate,

如何“长途跋涉”才到达你的盘子里，

CO2 emissions along the way.

以及这一路上所释放的二氧化碳。

All of that information,

所有的这些信息，

all those little chapters in one small fruit.

有关这个小果实的 所有细节都被包含在内。

It's very exciting.

真是振奋人心。

This is tomato number one.

这颗西红柿是一号。

This is the guy that you'll find in sub shops, supermarkets

它是你能在全世界的 连锁店、超市、

and fast-food joints around the world.

和快餐店都能看到的西红柿。

It's got a really long and complicated backstory.

它有着非常冗长复杂的背景故事：

It's been treated with a cocktail of, like, a dozen pesticides

经受了十几种杀虫剂的摧残，

and it has traveled at least 1,600 miles to get to your house.

历经了至少 1600 英里的跋涉， 才能到达你的家中。

And the image here is green,

图片里的西红柿是绿色的，

because these tomatoes are picked when green and hard as a rock,

因为这些西红柿被采摘时， 就是绿色的，而且硬得像石头一样，

and then they are gassed along the way

一路上它们会被喷洒某种气体，

so that when they arrive at the destination,

这样在到达目的地时，

they look bright and shiny and red and ripe.

它们看起来就会非常新鲜透亮， 色泽鲜红且已经成熟。

All of that effort,

所有这些环节，

all of that agricultural innovation and technology

所有这些农业创新和技术，

to create a product that is entirely without taste.

都只为了打造一种 完全没有口感的产品。

And onto the second tomato in our tale.

接下来，就是我们故事里的 第二个西红柿了，

This is the local version of the fruit.

也就是本地的蔬果。

Its story is much, much shorter.

这个故事就要短得多了。

This guy was grown by Luke Mahoney and his family at Brookford Farm

这颗西红柿来自卢克 · 马哈尼一家 位于新罕布什尔州

in Canterbury, New Hampshire.

坎特博雷的布鲁克弗德农场。

It's got a pretty boring backstory.

它的背景故事非常无聊。

It was planted,

它被种下，

sat in the sun

沐浴在阳光中，

and then it was picked.

然后被采摘。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That's it.

没了。

Like, you wouldn't want to --

你根本不想…

yeah, there's not much more to that.

实际上也没什么可说的。

And it traveled maybe 70 miles to get your plate.

它可能只需要跨越 70 英里 就能到你的盘子里。

But the difference is dramatic.

但却与前者有着天壤之别。

I want you think about the last time you ate a fresh, summer tomato.

我希望各位能回忆一下你们吃到的 最后一颗夏季的新鲜西红柿。

And I know we're all covered in our jackets,

我知道现在天气很冷，

但请试着想象一下，

but think about it.

上次你吃到果园里的一颗西红柿，

The last time you ate a tomato from the garden.

It's warm from the sun,

因为阳光的沐浴， 它还是温暖的，

it's richly red,

有着鲜艳的红色，

maybe it smells like dirt.

也许闻起来有些泥土味。

There's something nostalgic and almost magical in that experience.

这种体验带来了怀旧感， 甚至夹杂着神奇的感觉。

The taste and the flavor are incomparable.

那种口感和味道是无可比拟的。

And we really don't have to travel super far to get it.

况且我们真的不需要 长途跋涉去体验。

Now this story extends up the food chain,

这个故事可以扩展至整个食品链。

from the fruits and the vegetables that are on our plate

从我们餐盘中的水果蔬菜，

to the animals and the animal products that we consume.

到我们消耗的肉类和动物制品。

What goes into raising them,

饲养它们需要些什么，

and more importantly, what doesn't go into raising them,

更主要的是， 饲养它们不需要什么，

is critically important.

这是至关重要的。

Luke and his family have 60 cows.

卢克一家有 60 头奶牛，

They use traditional methods.

他们使用最传统的方法：

They do it the old way:

最传统的

pasture-raised,

牧场放养。

no hormones, no antibiotics,

无激素、无抗生素、

hay for days.

草料会被自然晒干几天。

And what they're doing here is just treating cows like they're cows,

他们把奶牛真正当做奶牛来对待，

not like they're in a science experiment.

而不是科学试验品。

He's raising animals the way that his grandfather

他用和他的祖父，以及 祖父的祖父一样的方法

and his grandfather would have.

饲养着动物。

And at the end, it's just better.

结果，一切都变得更好了。

It's better for the animals;

对动物有改善，

it's better for the environment.

对环境也有改善。

Luke is not optimizing for profit or price,

卢克并不为了利润或价格做调整，

but for taste and for humanity.

而是为了口感和人道。

And what you're thinking is, "There's already a solution to this.

各位肯定在想， “现在已经有了解决方案，

It's the farmer's markets."

那就是农贸市场。”

The ones that many of you visit

在座好多人都去过的，

and the ones that I really enjoy.

我本人也很喜欢逛。

They are a wonderful, but, in many ways, suboptimal solution.

那里的确很棒，但在很多方面， 那只是退而求其次的方案。

For us as the consumers, it's kind of great, right?

作为消费者， 我们感觉还不错，对吧？

You go,

到了那里，

there's this beautiful bounty of food,

有这么多精美的食物。

you get the warm and fuzzies for supporting a local farm

因为支持了本地农场， 自我感觉还不赖，

and you get the experience of trying something new and trying diverse products.

而且还有了尝试新鲜事物 和多元产品的经验。

And inevitably, there's some guy playing the ukulele

最主要的是，后面还有个人

somewhere in the background.

为你弹奏尤克里里。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But for the farmers, this presents a lot of risk, right?

但对于农民而言， 要承担很多风险，对吧？

You wake up at four.

你要四点起床，

You pack your truck, you hire a team,

装好卡车，雇用团队，

you get to your stall,

到了摊位，

but you have no guarantees

但你还是不能确定

that you're going to move your product that day.

当天能不能把产品卖出去。

There's too many variables in New England.

在新英格兰有太多变数了。

For example, the weather,

比如说天气，

which is just, like, a little bit unpredictable here.

在这儿就有点阴晴难测。

The weather is one of the many X factors

天气是农民们决定

that determine whether or not a market will be worth it for the farmers.

一个市场是否值得的 众多不确定因素之一。

Every time, they roll the dice.

他们每次都要孤注一掷，

And there's another option.

还有另外一个办法。

Here, we're talking about CSAs:

这里我们要提到 CSA，

community-supported agriculture.

也就是社区扶持农业 （community-supported agriculture）。

In this model, customers pay up front,

在这种模式下，消费者预先付款，

bearing the financial risk for the farms.

为农场承担资金风险。

Farmers grow what they can

农夫们尽可能地劳作，

and the customers enjoy that bounty.

消费者享受收获的果实。

This also has a couple issues.

这也存在几个问题，

It's great for the farmer,

这对于农民来说很好，

because they're ensuring that they'll sell what they buy,

因为他们确定 所有作物都可以卖掉，

but for us,

但对我们来说，

we still have to go and pick up that share,

我们得自己去取货。

and we know that a lot of farms can't grow a huge diversity of products,

而且我们知道很多农场 无法种植多样产品，

so sometimes, you're stuck with a mountain of any one particular thing.

所以，有时候你会得到 大量的单一品种。

Maybe this has happened to some of you.

也许，在座的一些人 有过这样的体验。

And what do you do with 25 pounds of rutabaga in the dead of winter?

在极寒的冬天你会如何处理 25 磅大头菜呢？

I still don't know.

我始终都不知道。

So back to the question.

言归正传，

How do we fix this?

我们要如何应对这个问题？

What we're hoping to do and what we're hoping to build

我们所期望的， 我们希望创建的，

is just a better way to CSA.

是社区扶持农业的更好的办法。

And there are three core innovations that make this thing hum.

要想实现这个目的， 需要三个核心创新。

The first of which

第一个，

is a subscription-based e-commerce platform,

就是以订阅为基础的电商平台，

which helps us create a consistent demand for our farmers

它可以在一整年内 为我们的农民

throughout the year.

提供持续的需求量。

The subscription part here is key.

这里的订阅是关键。

Orders process weekly,

订单每周下达一次，

customers opt out instead of opt in --

客户默认购买， 不需要每次都自己下单——

that means we've got kind of the same number of orders week to week.

这就意味着我们每周 都有着几乎等量的订单。

Second, this means that if farmers can sell online,

第二，这也意味着 农夫们可以网上出售，

they're no longer limited to the geography directly around their farm

他们不再局限于 农场周围的地理条件，

or to the number of markets that they can sell.

或是他们可以出售的市场数量。

We've blown the doors off of that for them.

我们为他们打破了这样的限制。

Second: demand forecasting.

第二：需求预测。

We're using analytics to allow ourselves to look into the future

我们以数据为依据进行分析，

and forecast demand.

来预测需求。

This lets farmers know how much to harvest in the near-term,

农民们不仅可以了解 在季末需要收获多少，

but also what to plant going forward.

也可以提前知道要播种多少。

If 200 orders process on Monday,

如果周一下了 200 个订单，

then we buy to meet that exact demand.

我们就去采供 符合这个数量的货品。

200 heads of broccoli,

比如，200 颗西蓝花，

200 pieces of salmon, et cetera, et cetera.

200 片鲑鱼，等等。

This automation in ordering

订购时的自动化，

means that here, we are eliminating the waste in the food system

就意味着在这里 我们会杜绝食品体系内

that bothers us all so much,

一直以来困扰我们的浪费现象。

because we are ensuring that the supply meets the exact demand.

因为我们确保供等于求。

It also allows us to look into the future with the farmers

同样的，这可以让我们和农民们 以数据为导向，

and do crop planning.

进行播种规划。

So if we can say to them, in June of this year,

如果我们在今年六月对他们说，

"I'm going to need 400 pounds of asparagus

“我每周需要 400 磅的芦笋

and 500 pounds of berries every week,"

和 500 磅的树莓”，

they can plant that accordingly,

他们就可以相应地进行种植。

knowing with confidence that they will sell

因为他们可以确保

everything that they have grown.

他们种多少都可以卖掉。

And finally, we use a route-optimization software

最后，我们还用到了 路线优化软件

to help us solve the problem of the traveling salesman.

来协助我们 解决运输中介的问题。

We get a fleet of workers to come in and help us go the last mile,

我们有一群员工帮助我们 实现最后一英里的运输，

bringing all these goodies directly to your door.

将这些优质农产品 直接送到您家门口。

Without data science

要是没有数据科学，

and a super-capable, wonderful team,

和一个优秀、称职的团队，

none of this would be possible.

这一切都不可能实现。

So maybe you've seen

也许各位已经看到了，

that we've got some sort of fiery, passionate core beliefs.

我们有雄心勃勃、 充满激情的核心信念。

Yes, we're trying to build a sustainable business,

没错，我们在努力打造 一个可持续发展的企业，

but our eye is not only on profit,

但我们的目标并不只是盈利，

it's on building a better, holistic system of food.

而是创建一个更完善、 更全面的食品体系。

And here's what we value.

我们的核心价值观就是，

People first.

以人为本。

We're trying to build community around food,

我们希望围绕食品，

the people who love it and the people who grow it.

围绕热爱食物和种植作物的人 来创建社区。

We built this company to support small farms.

我们创建这个公司 是为了扶持小农场。

Zero waste.

杜绝浪费。

We all hate wasting food, it just feels wrong --

我们都痛恨浪费食物， 因为这是不对的——

even that weirdo banana

即便是那根在茶几上

that's been sitting around on your coffee table for too long.

放了太久的，难看的香蕉。

And lastly, taste.

最后，就是味道。

If it doesn't taste good,

如果味道不好，

if it's not that, like, perfect summer tomato,

如果尝起来不是像那颗 完美的夏日西红柿一样，

why bother?

我们又何必这样折腾呢？

So what we've done is worked with all these local farms

所以我们和这些本地农场合作，

to bring their things in

把他们新鲜的农产品

and then to drop them directly at your door,

直接送到各位的家门口。

so that we're connecting you right to them

在顾客和农户之间建立连接，

and making, again, a more holistic system.

以构建一个更为全面的体系。

This is our vision of the future.

这就是我们对未来的畅想：

To extend this model beyond Boston, beyond New England

把这个体系从波士顿、从新英格兰

and across the country.

推广到其他国家；

To create a nationwide distributed network of local farms

并创建一个全国的 本地农场分布网络，

and to connect all these farmers

将所有农民

with the people like you who will love their food.

和像在座的各位一样 钟爱他们的农产品的人联系起来。

We believe, at the end of the day,

我们坚信，

坚持食用本地农产品 将是一项革命性的举措。

that really insisting on eating local food is a revolutionary act.

And we invite you to join us.

我们诚挚地邀请各位加入我们。

And who knows?

说不定，

You may even make some friends along the way.

你们也许还会在这个过程中 交到一些朋友。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）