Big data, small farms and a tale of two tomatoes | Erin Baumgartner

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Val Zhang

So data and analytics are dramatically changing our everyday lives.

資料和分析不斷為我們的 日常生活帶來重大改變。

Not just online,

不只是在線上或遙遠的未來，

not just in some distant future,

but in the physical world,

而是在現實世界中， 真實具體地呈現。

and in very real and tangible ways.

I spent the past 11 years of my life as a geek at MIT,

過去 11 年，我都在 麻省理工學院當極客，

working in big data labs

在大數據實驗室裡工作，

that seek to use data science to study the physical world

企圖用資料科學來研究實體世界，

and try to solve society's great problems.

並嘗試解決社會上的重大問題。

The field of big data seeks to analyze massive pools of data

大數據領域企圖運用 計算工具分析大量資料，

using computational tools to find patterns and trends.

以找出模式和趨勢。

Data can be a really extraordinary storyteller,

資料能化身為說故事高手，

unveiling the hidden narratives of things in our everyday lives

揭開日常事物背後所藏的故事，

that we never would have seen.

或許我們原本無從知道的。

I find the personal stories of inanimate things brought to life

為無生命的事物說出生動的故事，

to be extraordinarily compelling.

我覺得非常有吸引力。

I want to highlight, first, two projects from my time at MIT

想先分享我在麻省理工學院 所做的兩個亮點專案，

that I think highlight this phenomenon really well.

我認為它們非常適合說明這個現象。

The first is called Trash Track,

第一個是「垃圾軌跡」，

and in this project, we sought to better understand the waste-management system,

這個計畫的目標是 更了解廢棄物管理系統，

to answer the question

以回答這個問題：

"Where does your trash go when you throw it away?"

「當你把垃圾丟掉之後， 它會到哪裡去？」

Your old coffee cup or that flip phone

你的舊咖啡杯，

that you carried around in the early 2000s,

或者在 2000 年代初期 你帶在身上的掀蓋式手機，

or a bagel or this morning's paper --

或貝果，或今天早上的報紙——

where do these things go?

這些東西到哪裡去了？

This data didn't exist, so we had to create it.

這些資料並不存在， 所以得要由我們來創造。

We answered and then visualized this question

我們以視覺化的方式解答這個問題，

by installing small sensors into pieces of trash

透過在一些垃圾當中 裝上小型感測器，

and then throwing them into the waste system.

再將它們丟到廢棄物系統中。

And what you're seeing here is the data.

各位看到的就是這些資料。

Every line, every node that you see

各位看到的每一個點、每一條線，

is a single piece of trash moving through the city of Seattle,

就代表一個垃圾在西雅圖中移動，

and then across the state,

接著到州內的其他地方，

and then across the country,

接著到國內的其他地方，

as weeks and months go by.

隨著每週、每月過去的移動。

And it's important to visualize this data,

視覺化呈現這些資料十分重要， 因為應該沒有人會揣想：

because none of you are, probably, sitting here thinking,

「是的，看起來沒錯。」

"Yeah, that looks right."

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

"That's working like it should, right?"

「就應該是這樣，對吧？」

Because, no --

因為不是。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

What the data shows us is a highly inefficient system

資料所呈現的是個效率極低的系統，

whose inherent brokenness I don't think we really would have seen

我們或許無法看見系統本身的殘缺，

had the sensors not done the journalism for us.

若不是這些感測器幫我們收集資料。

A second project that I'd have to highlight

我要分享的第二個亮點專案，

has to do with creating robots that dive into sewers

是在打造能夠潛入下水道

做廢水採樣的機器人。

and sample wastewater.

I know that sewage kind of gets a bad rap,

我知道汙水的形象不佳，

but it's actually kind of awesome,

但它其實還蠻棒的，

because it can tell us an incredible amount

因為它能告訴我們很多 關於社區健康的資訊。

about the health of our communities.

This technology was spun out by a group call Biobot Analytics,

開發出這項技術的是叫做 Biobot Analytics 的集團，

who's creating a cutting-edge technology

他們創造出先進的技術，

to turn our sewers into modern-day health observatories.

將我們的下水道轉變成 現代的健康觀測台。

Their goal is to study opioids within the sewage

他們的目標是要研究 汙水中的類鴉片藥物，

to better understand consumption in cities.

以期更了解城市中的用藥狀況。

And this data is key,

這些資料正是關鍵所在，

because it really helps cities understand where people are using,

因為它們能協助城市了解 人們在哪裡使用這些藥物、

how to allocate resources

如何分配資源，

and the effectiveness of programming over time.

以及方案的長期成效。

Once again, the technology that's built into this machine

同樣的，內建在這台機器中的 這項技術揭開了面紗，

is pulling back the curtain

and showing us something about our cities that we never would have seen without it.

讓我們看到一些本來 無法看到的城市狀況。

So it turns out, as we see,

所以，結果發現，如我們所見，

that big data is really everywhere --

大數據真的無所不在，

even in your toilet.

連你的廁所裡也有。

And so now that we've talked about trash and sewage,

既然我們已經談過了垃圾和汙水，

let's move on ...

咱們接著來談談……食物。

to food.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

A year ago, I left MIT to pursue a passion in food,

一年前，我離開了麻省理工學院， 去追尋對食物的熱情，

and in 2017,

2017 年，我和先生創立了「家庭晚餐」。

started a company with my husband, called Family Dinner.

The goal of our company is to create community around local food

我們公司的目標是為當地食物

及種植這些食物的人建立社群。

and the people who grow it.

To make this happen, we're using data analytics,

為了達成這個目標，

我們用了資料分析、自動化和科技，

automation and technology

to build a distributed network of local farms

建造出當地農場的分散式網路，

and to make improvements on the food system.

並改善食物系統。

So what we see here

各位可以看到，

is that the broad techniques and the mission of what we're trying to do

這些多重的技術 和我們試著達成的使命，

is really not dissimilar from the work at the MIT labs.

其實和麻省理工學院 實驗室的工作相去不遠。

Which brings us to a critical question:

這就帶出了一個關鍵問題：

Why exactly would someone leave a very promising career

為什麼會有人想要放棄在世界頂尖

at one of the top urban science labs in the world

都市科學實驗室工作的職涯，

to drive carrots around in her mom's Acura?

開著她媽媽的 Acura 汽車 載著紅蘿蔔到處跑？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's a great car.

那是台好車。

Because I believe that the story of local food

因為我相信，當地食物的故事

needs to be understood, told and elevated,

需要被了解、被說出、被提升，

and in many ways,

且在許多層面上， 我想我們這種書呆子

I think that nerds like us are really uniquely poised to tell it.

特別適合來說這樣的故事。

So where are we starting?

所以，我們要從何開始？起點在哪？

What's our starting point?

The current national food system is optimized for one thing only,

目前的國家食物系統只針對 一項指標在做最佳化：

and that's corporate profit, right?

企業利潤，對吧？

And think about that.

想想這一點。

The most compelling reason for food companies to exist

食物公司存在背後最強的驅動力，

is not to feed hungry people,

並不是要提供食物給飢餓的人，

it's not to make delicious-tasting food.

也不是要做出美食。

It's profit.

是利潤。

And that has detrimental effects at all levels of our food system.

在我們食物系統的每個層級， 這都是種有害的效應。

The antibiotics and pesticides that are being put into our food

放到食物中的抗生素及殺蟲劑

are detrimental to our health.

對我們的健康有害。

Price pressure is forcing small farms out of business.

價格壓力迫使小農場關門。

In fact, a lot of the things that you think about farms

事實上，許多你所知道的 農場特性都已不復存在。

no longer exist.

Farms don't look like farms, they look like factories.

農場看起來不像農場，而像工廠。

And at the end of the day,

到頭來，我們所吃的食物， 品質也會受到不良影響。

the quality of the food that we're eating really suffers, too.

A factory-farm tomato may kind of look like a regular tomato:

工廠化農場產出的蕃茄 可能看起來像是一般的蕃茄：

bright red exterior ...

外表是亮紅色的……

But when you bite into it,

但當你咬下去，

the taste and texture just leave you wanting.

口味和質感就是讓你覺得不對勁。

And we know that perhaps the greatest tragedy in all of this

我們知道，這當中最大的悲劇

is that between 30 and 40 percent of this food is just wasted ...

可能就是這些食物 有 30~40% 被浪費掉了……

thrown away.

被丟棄。

That is 1.6 billion tons.

換算出來是 16 億公噸。

I can't even wrap my head around that number.

我實在無法想像這樣的數字。

1.6 billion tons.

16 億公噸。

That's 1.2 trillion dollars a year

一年丟棄的食物就價值 1.2 兆美金。

in wasted food.

That is the cost of on-demand eating

這就是隨選隨吃、方便性，

and convenience

and the broken food system.

及出問題的食物系統 所產生的代價。

Now, where's this waste happening?

這些浪費發生在何處？

Where's all this waste coming from?

到底哪裏浪費了？

Well, we know that it happens in the field

我們知道在農場裡會發生，

when you don't pick the sexiest-looking potatoes.

看起來不夠漂亮的 馬鈴薯不會被選中。

We know that it happens in transit,

我們知道在運輸過程會發生，

at the warehouses,

在倉庫裡會發生，在雜貨店會發生。

in the grocery stores.

And finally, on our own kitchen counters,

最後，在自家廚房 流理台上也會發生，

when we determine that that spotty, brown banana no longer looks so yummy.

當我們認定長了斑點的 褐色香蕉，看起來不好吃了。

All that waste, all that effort.

那麼多浪費，那麼多心力。

Food is planted,

食物被種植下去、

grown, harvested, shipped,

栽培、收穫、運送，

and then just thrown away.

然後就只是被丟掉。

We think that there has to be a better way.

我們認為一定有更好的方式。

And so how to we improve upon this?

我們要如何改善？

How do we make a better system?

我們要如何做出更好的系統？

In order to do this,

為了辦到，

we understand that we need to eliminate waste

我們知道必須去除 食物供應鏈中的浪費。

in the food supply chain.

We need to get data in the hands of farmers,

我們得要把資料送到農民手中，

so that they can make better predictions.

讓他們做更好的預測。

So they can, you know, kind of compete with the big guy.

這樣他們才能和大企業競爭。

And then finally,

接著，最後，

we need to prize, as a company,

身為公司，我們得要重視

quality and taste above everything,

品質和口味勝過其他一切，

so that people really value the delicious food on their plates.

如此，大家才會珍視 他們盤中的美味食物。

This, we believe, is the better system.

我們相信這才是比較好的系統。

This is the better way.

這才是比較好的方式。

And the path to that better way is paved with data.

而通往更好方式的路， 是由資料鋪墊而成的。

To highlight all of this, I want to tell the tale of two tomatoes.

讓我用一個關於 兩顆蕃茄的故事來說明。

We'll talk about them one by one.

我們依序來談。

A tomato in itself contains a beautiful snapshot

蕃茄本身就含有美麗的縮影，

of everything you might want to know about the life cycle of that fruit:

內含關於它生命週期的一切資訊：

where it was grown, what it was treated with,

它生長在哪裡、被如何對待、

nutritional value,

營養價值、

miles traveled to get to your plate,

走了多遠才到你的盤子裡、

CO2 emissions along the way.

碳足跡。

All of that information,

所有這些資訊，

all those little chapters in one small fruit.

所有這些小章節， 都含在一顆小小的水果中。

It's very exciting.

這挺讓人興奮。

This is tomato number one.

這是一號蕃茄。

This is the guy that you'll find in sub shops, supermarkets

你可以在全世界的三明治店、

and fast-food joints around the world.

超級市場、速食店分店買到它。

It's got a really long and complicated backstory.

它的背景故事又長又複雜。

It's been treated with a cocktail of, like, a dozen pesticides

它喝過宛如雞尾酒般的 多種混和殺蟲劑，

and it has traveled at least 1,600 miles to get to your house.

運送了至少 1,600 英里才到達你家。

And the image here is green,

這裡的圖是綠色的，

because these tomatoes are picked when green and hard as a rock,

因為這些蕃茄在還是綠色 且像石頭一樣硬時被選中，

and then they are gassed along the way

運輸途中使用氣調保鮮，

so that when they arrive at the destination,

好讓它們抵達目的地時，

they look bright and shiny and red and ripe.

外表看來鮮豔欲滴。

All of that effort,

所有那些心力，

all of that agricultural innovation and technology

所有那些農業創新和技術，

to create a product that is entirely without taste.

創造出的是完全沒有味道的產品。

And onto the second tomato in our tale.

接著，故事中的第二顆蕃茄。

This is the local version of the fruit.

這是當地版本的蕃茄。

Its story is much, much shorter.

它的故事短很多。

This guy was grown by Luke Mahoney and his family at Brookford Farm

它是由路克馬洪尼及他的家人

在新罕布什爾州的坎特伯雷 布魯克福農場種出來的。

in Canterbury, New Hampshire.

It's got a pretty boring backstory.

它的背景故事很無趣。

It was planted,

它被種下去，

sat in the sun

待在太陽底下，

and then it was picked.

接著被採收。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That's it.

就這樣。你不會想要——

Like, you wouldn't want to --

是啊，沒什麼特別的。

yeah, there's not much more to that.

And it traveled maybe 70 miles to get your plate.

它被運送了也許 70 英里 就到了你的盤子裡。

But the difference is dramatic.

但差別非常大。

I want you think about the last time you ate a fresh, summer tomato.

想想看你上次吃到新鮮的 夏季蕃茄是什麼時候。

And I know we're all covered in our jackets,

我知道現在天氣很冷，但試著想想

but think about it.

你上次吃到來自院子的蕃茄是何時。

The last time you ate a tomato from the garden.

It's warm from the sun,

太陽將它照得暖暖的， 外表是十足的紅色，

it's richly red,

maybe it smells like dirt.

也許聞起來還像泥土。

There's something nostalgic and almost magical in that experience.

那種體驗帶著懷鄉感 和像魔法般的神奇感。

The taste and the flavor are incomparable.

那味道和口味是無與倫比的。

And we really don't have to travel super far to get it.

而且我們並不需要到 多遠的地方就可以取得它。

Now this story extends up the food chain,

這個故事把食物鏈向上延伸，

from the fruits and the vegetables that are on our plate

從我們盤子裡的水果及蔬菜，

to the animals and the animal products that we consume.

延伸到動物和我們消費的動物產品。

What goes into raising them,

飼養牠們的時候用了什麼，

and more importantly, what doesn't go into raising them,

更重要的是，

飼養牠們時沒有用什麼，

is critically important.

這點極其重要。

Luke and his family have 60 cows.

路克和他的家人有 60 頭牛。

They use traditional methods.

他們用傳統的方法，用老式的做法：

They do it the old way:

pasture-raised,

放牧，

no hormones, no antibiotics,

沒有用荷爾蒙或抗生素，

hay for days.

以乾草為主食。

And what they're doing here is just treating cows like they're cows,

他們就是把牛當牛看，

not like they're in a science experiment.

而不是像在做科學實驗。

He's raising animals the way that his grandfather

他飼養動物的方式，

是他的祖父及祖父的祖父用的方式。

and his grandfather would have.

And at the end, it's just better.

最終，這就是比較好的方式。

It's better for the animals;

對動物比較好；對環境比較好。

it's better for the environment.

Luke is not optimizing for profit or price,

路克不追求最佳的利潤或價格，

but for taste and for humanity.

而是追求口味和人性。

And what you're thinking is, "There's already a solution to this.

你可能在想： 「這問題已有解決方案了。

It's the farmer's markets."

就是農夫市集。」

The ones that many of you visit

許多人都去過，

and the ones that I really enjoy.

我也很喜歡這類市集。

They are a wonderful, but, in many ways, suboptimal solution.

這類市集是很棒， 但在許多層面上是次佳解。

For us as the consumers, it's kind of great, right?

對我們消費者挺好的，不是嗎？

You go,

你去那裡，有漂亮又豐富的食物，

there's this beautiful bounty of food,

支持當地農場還會 讓你有一種窩心的感覺，

you get the warm and fuzzies for supporting a local farm

and you get the experience of trying something new and trying diverse products.

你還能有嘗鮮的體驗， 試試多樣化的產品。

And inevitably, there's some guy playing the ukulele

且總會有個人在背景 某處演奏著烏克麗麗。

somewhere in the background.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But for the farmers, this presents a lot of risk, right?

但對農民來說，風險並不小。

You wake up at four.

要在四點起床，裝載好卡車， 僱用一個團隊，到你的攤位，

You pack your truck, you hire a team,

you get to your stall,

but you have no guarantees

但沒有保證

that you're going to move your product that day.

那一天能夠賣掉你的產品。

There's too many variables in New England.

在新英格蘭，有太多變數了。

For example, the weather,

比如，天氣，

which is just, like, a little bit unpredictable here.

它實在有點難預測。

The weather is one of the many X factors

有很多未知因素會決定 市集對農民是否值得，

that determine whether or not a market will be worth it for the farmers.

天氣是其中之一。

Every time, they roll the dice.

每次都像是擲骰子一樣。

And there's another option.

而還有另一個選項。

Here, we're talking about CSAs:

我們在談的是 CSA：

community-supported agriculture.

社群支持農業。

In this model, customers pay up front,

在這個模式中，消費者要先付費，

bearing the financial risk for the farms.

為農場承擔財務風險。

Farmers grow what they can

農民盡力種植，

and the customers enjoy that bounty.

消費者則享受收穫。

This also has a couple issues.

這個方法也有些問題。

It's great for the farmer,

對農民來說很好， 因為買進的肯定都能賣出，

because they're ensuring that they'll sell what they buy,

but for us,

但我們仍得去拿屬於自己的那份，

we still have to go and pick up that share,

我們也知道許多農場 無法產出非常多樣化的產品，

and we know that a lot of farms can't grow a huge diversity of products,

so sometimes, you're stuck with a mountain of any one particular thing.

所以有時，你就會拿到 一大堆同樣的東西。

Maybe this has happened to some of you.

也許在座有些人遇過這種狀況。

And what do you do with 25 pounds of rutabaga in the dead of winter?

在嚴冬，你該拿 25 磅的 蕪菁甘藍如何是好？

I still don't know.

我仍然不知道答案。

So back to the question.

所以，回到我們的問題。

How do we fix this?

我們要如何改善？

What we're hoping to do and what we're hoping to build

我們希望能做的

是建造一種更好的 CSA 方式。

is just a better way to CSA.

And there are three core innovations that make this thing hum.

有三項創新的重點 能讓此模式維持運作。

The first of which

第一項是訂閱制的電子商務平台，

is a subscription-based e-commerce platform,

which helps us create a consistent demand for our farmers

它讓我們能為農民創造出 一整年持續不斷的需求。

throughout the year.

The subscription part here is key.

這裡的關鍵在於訂閱。

Orders process weekly,

每週處理一次訂單，

customers opt out instead of opt in --

客人要選擇的是退出， 而不是參加——

that means we've got kind of the same number of orders week to week.

也就是說，我們每週 幾乎都有同樣數量的訂單。

Second, this means that if farmers can sell online,

再者，這表示 如果農民能在線上銷售，

they're no longer limited to the geography directly around their farm

就不會受限只能賣到 他們周圍的地區，

or to the number of markets that they can sell.

能銷售的市場數量也不會受限。

We've blown the doors off of that for them.

我們為他們打開了這扇門。

Second: demand forecasting.

第二項創新：需求預測。

We're using analytics to allow ourselves to look into the future

我們用分析來眺望未來，

and forecast demand.

並預測需求。

This lets farmers know how much to harvest in the near-term,

如此農民就知道近期該採收多少量，

but also what to plant going forward.

以及後續要再種植多少量。

If 200 orders process on Monday,

如果星期一處理了 200 張訂單，

then we buy to meet that exact demand.

我們會完全依這些需求來採買。

200 heads of broccoli,

200 棵椰菜、200 片鮭魚等等。

200 pieces of salmon, et cetera, et cetera.

This automation in ordering

訂購的自動化

means that here, we are eliminating the waste in the food system

就意味著我們能消除食物系統中

讓我們覺得很困擾的浪費問題，

that bothers us all so much,

because we are ensuring that the supply meets the exact demand.

因為我們能確保供應剛好符合需求。

It also allows us to look into the future with the farmers

如此也能和農民 一同規劃未來和作物。

and do crop planning.

So if we can say to them, in June of this year,

如果我們能告訴他們，今年六月，

"I'm going to need 400 pounds of asparagus

「我每週會需要 400 磅的蘆筍

and 500 pounds of berries every week,"

和 500 磅的莓果」，

they can plant that accordingly,

他們就能依此來栽種，

knowing with confidence that they will sell

且有信心他們能完銷所有作物。

everything that they have grown.

And finally, we use a route-optimization software

最後，我們採用路徑最佳化軟體，

to help us solve the problem of the traveling salesman.

協助我們解決最短路徑問題。

We get a fleet of workers to come in and help us go the last mile,

我們有一票人員會來 協助最後一哩路，

bringing all these goodies directly to your door.

把所有的產品直接送到你家。

Without data science

若沒有資料科學 和能力超強的美好團隊，

and a super-capable, wonderful team,

none of this would be possible.

這一切都不會實現。

So maybe you've seen

所以，也許你發現

that we've got some sort of fiery, passionate core beliefs.

我們帶有某種強大熱情的核心信念。

Yes, we're trying to build a sustainable business,

是的，我們試圖建立永續的事業，

but our eye is not only on profit,

但我們重視的不只是利潤，

it's on building a better, holistic system of food.

還要建立一個更好的、 全面的食物系統。

And here's what we value.

這是我們重視的：

People first.

以人為本。

We're trying to build community around food,

我們試圖為食物、愛食物的人，

the people who love it and the people who grow it.

及種食物的人建造一個社群。

We built this company to support small farms.

我們設立這間公司 是要支持小型農場。

Zero waste.

零浪費。

We all hate wasting food, it just feels wrong --

我們都討厭浪費食物， 感覺就是不對的事——

even that weirdo banana

就連在你的茶几上擺太久的 那根怪胎香蕉也一樣。

that's been sitting around on your coffee table for too long.

And lastly, taste.

最後，口味。

If it doesn't taste good,

如果不好吃，

if it's not that, like, perfect summer tomato,

如果吃起來不像完美的夏季蕃茄，

why bother?

又為何而忙？

So what we've done is worked with all these local farms

所以，我們和這些當地的農場合作，

to bring their things in

把他們的東西直接送到你家，

and then to drop them directly at your door,

so that we're connecting you right to them

我們把你和他們直接連結起來，

and making, again, a more holistic system.

同樣的，也是要打造更全面的系統。

This is our vision of the future.

這是我們對未來的願景。

To extend this model beyond Boston, beyond New England

將此模式延伸到 波士頓及新英格蘭以外，

and across the country.

到全國各地。

To create a nationwide distributed network of local farms

我們要建立一個全國的 當地農場分散式網路，

and to connect all these farmers

連結農民和像你們這些 喜愛其作物的人。

with the people like you who will love their food.

We believe, at the end of the day,

我們相信，到頭來，

that really insisting on eating local food is a revolutionary act.

堅持吃當地食物， 是能夠帶來革命的行為。

And we invite you to join us.

邀請各位加入我們。

And who knows?

誰知道呢？

You may even make some friends along the way.

這一路上你可能還會交到些朋友呢。

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）