The Future Will Be Shaped by Optimists | Kevin Kelly | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

I want to try and persuade you

我想试着说服你

that there are reasons why we should be optimistic in general.

为什么我们总该保持乐观。

And that’s a very difficult thing to do today

现如今，这是一件很难的事，

because we are confronting tremendous problems in this world.

因为我们要面临 世界上的一大堆问题。

Things like global climate change,

比如全球气候变化，

which seem almost impossible to solve,

看起来根本无法被解决，

or social inequality,

或者社会不平等问题，

which seems endemic and difficult to eliminate.

看起来普遍存在又无法根除。

The scale of these problems though

但正因为这些问题大规模地存在，

is even more reason why we should be optimistic.

我们更应该保持乐观。

Because what we know is that in the past,

因为我们知道过去的

every great and difficult thing that has been accomplished,

每一个伟大壮举、

every breakthrough,

每一个突破，

has in fact required

实际上都需要

a very strong sense of optimism

非常强大的乐观精神

that it was possible.

才能做到。

Think of the first airplanes.

想想第一架飞机。

It’s hard enough

刻意地创造

to create something good and great deliberately and with intention.

优秀且伟大的发明 是多难的一件事。

And it’s no guarantee,

没有人可以保证，

just because we believe something will happen that it will happen,

只是因为我们相信 该来的总会来的，

but we do know that unless we believe that something can happen,

但是我们也知道， 除非我们坚信这件事会发生，

it’s not going to happen inadvertently by itself.

它是不会自己偶然发生的。

And so it becomes really important

所以这就可以体现出

that we imagine a world that we want,

我们想象着一个向往的世界，

that we imagine solutions we want

想象出一个向往的解决方法，

and believe that we can make them happen.

并坚信我们能让它们成真 是多么的重要。

And that belief in making something impossible happen

这种让不可能成为可能的信念

is what has shaped our future so far.

一直塑造着我们的未来。

So our own history has been basically shaped by optimists,

我们自己的历史基本上 都由乐观主义者塑造，

and if we want to shape the future,

如果我们想要塑造未来，

we need to be optimistic.

我们得保持乐观。

That world that we’re shaping is not a world that’s perfect.

我们要塑造的世界 不是完美的世界。

It’s not perfection,

它不完美，

there’s no lack of problems,

问题重重，

there’s no absence of bad things.

坏事频现。

It is totally not utopia.

它完全不是个乌托邦。

It’s what I would call pro-topia:

我想称之为“进托邦（pro-topia）”：

a world in which things are a little bit better.

事情略微变得好起来的世界。

And that sense of optimism is a perspective

这种乐观精神是一种

where we expect the world to yield a little bit more good than bad,

我们希望世界上可以 发生更多好事而不是坏事、

to have a few more reasons to hope than to fear.

让人更愿意充满希望 而不是恐惧的态度。

And optimism definitely is not just a sunny temperament,

乐观精神绝对不只是乐天的性格，

a kind of a blindness to the realities of the world's problems

不是对世界现实问题的无视，

or some kind of Pollyanna self-delusion.

或者波丽安娜式的自我欺骗。

Instead, optimism is based on the fact of historical progress,

相反，乐观主义需要 基于历史进程的事实，

that if we transcend anecdote

我们得撇开奇闻轶事，

and look at data in a scientific, rational way,

用科学理性的方式看待数据，

that we can see that the evidence says

我们希望可以看到这样的结果：

that on average,

在过去的半个世纪，全球范围内

on a global scale over time,

over the last 500 years,

there has been incremental improvement over time.

总体一直有改善的趋势。

If it’s real then why don’t we see more of it?

如果这是真的， 为什么我们没看到更多这样的情况？

Why are so many people pessimistic?

为什么这么多人都如此悲观？

And I think there are three reasons why.

我觉得有三个原因。

One is that most of what progress is about is about what does not happen.

首先，“进步”一般指的是 没发生的事。

It’s about all the things that could have happened that didn’t happen today.

它只是可能会发生， 但是现在又没发生的事。

It’s about the two-year-old child who did not die of smallpox.

它是一名两岁孩童没有 死于天花这样的事；

It’s about the family farmers

它是农户的余粮

whose year of surplus food was not stolen by raiders.

没有被强盗偷走这样的事；

They don't make the headlines.

而这些事不会成为爆款头条。

And the second reason is that bad things happen faster than good things.

第二个原因是 坏事比好事发生得更快。

Good things take time.

好事多磨。

When we are compressing our news cycle to the last five minutes

当我们把新闻滚动时限 压缩到过去五分钟

and the next five minutes,

和接下来五分钟时，

all the things that have changed in the last five minutes

过去五分钟里发生改变的所有事

are kind of bad stuff

都只会是坏事，

because good stuff takes longer.

因为好事要花更多的时间。

If we were to make newspapers and websites

如果我们每 100 年更新一次

to be updated every 100 years,

报纸和网页，

we’d have a very different set of headlines.

我们会有截然不同的头条内容。

The third reason is that because societies that are capable of creating

第三个原因是，如果这个社会可以

just a few percent more good than they destroy every year,

每年创造比毁掉的多一点点的好事，

if you have a society that’s capable

如果这个社会可以

of making just a few percent more than it destroys,

去创造好事比去毁灭多一点点，

then over time,

那么随着时间的流逝，

that few percent is compounded.

那么一点点好事也会叠加，

And that is what civilization is.

这就是文明。

So that one percent, few percent, is almost invisible

那百分之一，百分之几

in the noise of the 49-percent crap and destruction around it.

在它周围 49% 的垃圾和破坏的 衬托下简直是沧海一粟。

So we don’t see it

所以除非我们

unless we turn around and look back into the past.

回头审视过去， 我们就无法发现它。

So it’s possible that after 500 years of progress,

因此，在半个世纪的发展后，

it could stop tomorrow.

明天戛然而止也是有可能的。

But it’s unlikely

但是这不太可能，

and very, very probable that that long-term trend will continue,

很有可能的是 这个长期的趋势会持续下去，

at least for the rest of your lives.

至少在你的余生里持续下去。

So this optimism makes us realists

这样的乐观主义让我们现实主义者

in aligning ourselves with this long history

将自己与历史长河中的

of historical progress.

历史进程保持一致。

And that’s the first reason we should be optimistic.

这就是我们应该 保持乐观的第一个原因。

And the second reason is that civilization is a mechanism

第二个原因是文明是一个

to make these improvements

做出改善的机制，

that relies on the fact that we’re optimistically trusting others.

这些进步依靠的是 我们乐观地互相信任的事实。

We have total strangers that we can collaborate,

我们可以和完全不认识的人合作，

and that collaboration allows us to make things beyond ourselves

这样的合作让我们 可以做到超越自己的事，

that are bigger than just what we can do.

比我们个人的力量更强大的事。

That requires trust,

这需要信任，

and trust is a type of optimism.

信任是一种乐观。

But in addition to kind of cooperating

除了有与地球上 80 亿陌生人

with the eight billion total strangers on this planet accomplishing great things,

一起成事的合作，

we can also trust future generations.

我们也可以信任我们的后代。

The billions of people yet unborn into the future.

这几亿还未出生的人。

Right now, today, we are benefiting from the work of previous generations

今时今日， 我们从前辈的成果中获益，

who undergone to create infrastructure --

他们努力建设了基础设施：

roads canals, skyscrapers, telephone networks --

道路、运河、摩天大楼、通信网络，

that we are now enjoying.

我们现在享福于其中。

In fact, we may be enjoying more benefits than they have back in the past

实际上，我们现在享受的成果可能

多于那个开拓的时代。

when they began.

So they have been acting as good ancestors for us,

他们是我们优秀的前辈，

and sometimes even sacrificing

他们有时甚至需要牺牲

what could have been immediate yields and benefits

可以有即刻成效的成果和福祉，

and postponing them until future generations.

把它们推后，造福后代。

We also want to be good ancestors,

我们也想成为优秀的前辈，

and being good ancestors trying to move benefits to the future generations

成为把福祉带给后辈的优秀前辈，

is an act of optimism.

这也是一种乐观的行为。

One, because we believe that there will be future generations,

首先，因为我们相信 我们会有后代，

and two, because we are willing to sacrifice immediate gains

其次，我们愿意牺牲眼前的成果，

in order to postpone --

把它延后，

have more gains into the future --

在未来产生更多的成果，

that investment.

现在是一种投资。

Being a good ancestor enables us to actually accomplish things

成为优秀的前辈 让我们可以真正做到

not just beyond what we can do individually in the present,

不只是超越我们现在能做的事，

but what we can do over time.

而是延续至未来的事。

So when we trust the future,

当我们相信未来的时候，

one of the things that we are understanding

我们会理解的一件事是

is that future generations not only have better living standards

我们的后代不仅会由于进步获得

because of progress,

更好的生活条件，

but they also have more capability to solve problems

他们还会拥有 更强的解决问题的能力，

because there’s more knowledge

因为他们有更多的知识、

and because they have better tools.

更多的工具。

And so we can trust that.

所以我们可以相信它。

We can trust the fact that in the future,

我们可以相信在未来，

future generations will be able to solve problems

我们的后代会有能力解决

that we cannot solve ourselves.

我们自己无法解决的问题。

So that means that we should be optimistic

这意味着我们需要保持乐观，

not because we believe that our problems are smaller than we thought.

不是因为问题比我们想象的要小。

We should be optimistic because we believe

我们需要保持乐观，是因为

that our capacity to solve problems is greater than we thought.

我们解决问题的能力 比我们想象的要强。

So that’s a second reason to be optimistic.

这就是第二个 我们需要保持乐观的原因。

The third one has to do with problems

第三个原因是一些

which are really disguised as opportunities.

通常会伪装成是“机会”的问题。

OK, so optimists don’t shun problems.

好吧，乐观主义者不会逃避问题。

Optimism is about embracing problems,

乐观主义是说迎难而上，

because it’s problems that make solutions

因为问题产生解决方法，

and solutions that make problems.

解决方法产生问题。

So I believe that most of the problems we have today

我相信我们现在很多的问题

are generated by the solutions of the past.

都源自以前的解决方法。

And the great one is this climate change.

一个显著的例子就是气候变化。

The solution in the past was artificial power --

过去的解决方法是发明人工智能——

“Where do we get it?”

“怎么实现人工智能？”

“OK, here it is.”

“好的，现在我们有了。”

But now it makes the problem now.

但是现在这成了个问题。

That means that today,

意味着现在

most of the solutions that we have

我们用的很多方法

will be generating the problems of the future.

都会为未来造成问题。

And there will be more problems

而且会有更多的问题，

because new solutions create many more problems.

因为现在的新方法 会产生更多的问题。

In the same way, when science answers a question,

同样地，如果用科学回答一个问题，

that answer will generate two or three new questions --

这个答案将会产生两三个新问题，

things that we didn’t even know we didn’t know.

我们都不知道 我们还不知道的事。

And so, in a peculiar way,

所以，科学在以一种特殊的方式

science is expanding our ignorance faster than our knowledge.

比拓宽我们的知识 更快地拓宽我们的无知。

So we have an unlimited pool of questions and problems.

我们有无数的问题和麻烦。

But problems don’t impede progress.

但是问题不会阻碍进步。

Problems are the conduit of progress.

问题引领着进步。

No problems, no progress.

没有问题，就不会有进步。

That is why I reject utopia,

这就是为什么我反对乌托邦，

because there are no problems there.

因为那里没有问题。

So even bad things that happen are basically possibilities

就算坏事发生了，

that yield new solutions and better opportunities.

也为新方法和好机会提供了可能。

So in that way, problems are unlimited.

这样的话，问题是无限的。

There is no limit for improvement.

进步也是无限的。

So we can improve ourselves in all directions.

我们就可以全方位地让自己进步。

So we have a choice about optimism.

我们有了选择乐观的权利，

It’s not a temperament.

它不是一种性格。

No matter what your temperament is you can still choose to be optimistic.

无论你的性格如何， 你都可以选择保持乐观。

And gigantic problems require gigantic optimism.

更大的问题需要更多的乐观。

We have a moral obligation to be optimistic,

我们有保持乐观的义务，

because when we’re optimistic,

因为当我们保持乐观时，

we can shape the future,

我们会塑造未来，

we can become better ancestors,

我们会成为更好的前人，

we can expand our reach --

我们会拓展可能，

create things bigger than ourselves.

创造出比我们自己更庞大的东西。

And we can be a realist in aligning ourselves with this long arc of history

我们会成为与历史长河 携手共进的现实主义者，

and embracing problems as opportunities.

把问题看作机会。

With optimism,

有了乐观精神，

we can use it as a power to kind of create the future that we want.

我们可以将它化作一股力量， 来创造我们想要的未来。

This is the way.

就是如此。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）