The Future Will Be Shaped by Optimists | Kevin Kelly | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

I want to try and persuade you

我想要試著說服各位

that there are reasons why we should be optimistic in general.

總體來說我們應該要 保持樂觀的原因。

And that’s a very difficult thing to do today

現今，要做到這一點很不容易，

because we are confronting tremendous problems in this world.

因為我們要面對

這個世界上相當重大的問題。

Things like global climate change,

比如，

看似幾乎無法解決的全球氣候變遷，

which seem almost impossible to solve,

or social inequality,

或者似乎很普遍的社會不平等，

which seems endemic and difficult to eliminate.

也很難消除。

The scale of these problems though

不過，正是因為這些問題這麼大， 我們更該保持樂觀。

is even more reason why we should be optimistic.

Because what we know is that in the past,

因為，

我們知道，在過去，

every great and difficult thing that has been accomplished,

所有偉大且困難的成就， 所有的突破，

every breakthrough,

事實上，

has in fact required

都需要

a very strong sense of optimism

抱持很強的樂觀觀念，

相信有可能做到。

that it was possible.

Think of the first airplanes.

想想最早的飛機。

It’s hard enough

要刻意且有意圖地 去創造很好很棒的東西

to create something good and great deliberately and with intention.

就已經相當不容易了。

And it’s no guarantee,

而且還……

無法保證，並不是我們 相信會發生就一定會發生。

just because we believe something will happen that it will happen,

但我們確實知道，

but we do know that unless we believe that something can happen,

除非我們相信某件事會發生，

it’s not going to happen inadvertently by itself.

不然它不可能自己不經意地發生。

And so it becomes really important

因此，

非常重要的是，我們要去想像

that we imagine a world that we want,

我們想要什麼樣的世界， 什麼樣的解決方案，並相信

that we imagine solutions we want

and believe that we can make them happen.

我們能實現它們。

And that belief in making something impossible happen

相信能讓

不可能的事情發生，這種信念正是

is what has shaped our future so far.

至今為我們打造未來的推手。

So our own history has been basically shaped by optimists,

所以我們自己的歷史 基本上就是由樂觀的人所創造的。

and if we want to shape the future,

如果我們想要打造未來，

we need to be optimistic.

我們就得樂觀。

That world that we’re shaping is not a world that’s perfect.

我們打造的世界並不完美。

It’s not perfection,

它不會完美無缺，

there’s no lack of problems,

there’s no absence of bad things.

不會沒有不好的地方。

It is totally not utopia.

完全不是烏托邦，

It’s what I would call pro-topia:

我稱之為進托邦，

a world in which things are a little bit better.

事物稍微好一點的世界。

And that sense of optimism is a perspective

而那種樂觀觀念

表示我們期望

where we expect the world to yield a little bit more good than bad,

世界上所產生的好比壞更多一點點，

to have a few more reasons to hope than to fear.

能心懷希望的理由 比恐懼的理由多一些些。

And optimism definitely is not just a sunny temperament,

而且樂觀絕對不只是陽光性格，

a kind of a blindness to the realities of the world's problems

也不是盲目不見世上問題的現實，

or some kind of Pollyanna self-delusion.

或者某種樂天的自我欺騙。

Instead, optimism is based on the fact of historical progress,

樂觀所根據的是 歷史進展上的事實：

that if we transcend anecdote

如果我們能跳脫軼事，

and look at data in a scientific, rational way,

用科學、理性的方式來看資料，

that we can see that the evidence says

我們就能發現，證據指出，

that on average,

從全球的角度來看， 平均而言，隨時間，

on a global scale over time,

over the last 500 years,

在過去五百年間，

there has been incremental improvement over time.

隨時間，一直都有 漸進式的改善在發生。

If it’s real then why don’t we see more of it?

若是真的，為何沒看到更多？

為何有這麼多人悲觀？ 我認為原因有三個。

Why are so many people pessimistic?

And I think there are three reasons why.

One is that most of what progress is about is about what does not happen.

第一，

大部分的進展，都與 「沒有發生的事」有關，

It’s about all the things that could have happened that didn’t happen today.

和本來可能發生 但現今卻沒有發生的事有關。

It’s about the two-year-old child who did not die of smallpox.

比如兩歲孩子沒有因為天花而死。

It’s about the family farmers

比如個體農場的小農

whose year of surplus food was not stolen by raiders.

一整年剩餘的食物 沒有被掠劫者給偷走。

They don't make the headlines.

這些事不會上頭條。

And the second reason is that bad things happen faster than good things.

第二個原因是 壞事發生的速度比好事快。

Good things take time.

好事要花時間。

When we are compressing our news cycle to the last five minutes

當我們把新聞循環壓縮到只有 過去五分鐘和接下來五分鐘，

and the next five minutes,

all the things that have changed in the last five minutes

在過去五分鐘之內有所 改變的一切大概都是壞事。

are kind of bad stuff

because good stuff takes longer.

因為好事需要更長的時間。

If we were to make newspapers and websites

如果我們能把

報紙及網站改成每一百年更新一次，

to be updated every 100 years,

we’d have a very different set of headlines.

頭條就會很不一樣了。

The third reason is that because societies that are capable of creating

第三個原因是因為

社會能夠創造出的

just a few percent more good than they destroy every year,

好事能比他們每年毀滅的一切

多出幾個百分點，

if you have a society that’s capable

如果社會能夠創造的 比起它所摧毀的還要多出

of making just a few percent more than it destroys,

幾個百分點，

then over time,

那麼，隨時間， 那幾個百分點就會加成。

that few percent is compounded.

And that is what civilization is.

那就是文明。

So that one percent, few percent, is almost invisible

所以，

那一個、幾個百分點

因為被百分之四十九的鳥事

in the noise of the 49-percent crap and destruction around it.

和毀滅所產生的噪音圍繞， 會很難被看見。

So we don’t see it

所以我們看不見，

unless we turn around and look back into the past.

除非我們轉身去看過去。

So it’s possible that after 500 years of progress,

所以，是有可能， 在五百年的進步之後，

it could stop tomorrow.

明天就停滯了。

But it’s unlikely

但機率仍然不高，

and very, very probable that that long-term trend will continue,

且那長期的趨勢非常非常

有可能會持續下去， 至少在你這輩子都還會持續。

at least for the rest of your lives.

So this optimism makes us realists

所以，這種樂觀會讓 我們成為務實的人，

in aligning ourselves with this long history

認同過去這段漫長的進展史。

of historical progress.

And that’s the first reason we should be optimistic.

那就是我們應該要 保持樂觀的第一個原因。

And the second reason is that civilization is a mechanism

第二個原因是

文明是一種改善的機制，

to make these improvements

that relies on the fact that we’re optimistically trusting others.

而其基礎就是我們能 樂觀地相信他人。

We have total strangers that we can collaborate,

我們能和完全陌生的人合作，

and that collaboration allows us to make things beyond ourselves

而那樣的合作能讓我們做到 超越我們能力範圍的事，

that are bigger than just what we can do.

比我們能做的事還大。

That requires trust,

那就需要信任，而信任是一種樂觀。

and trust is a type of optimism.

But in addition to kind of cooperating

但，除了

with the eight billion total strangers on this planet accomplishing great things,

和地球上八十億完全 陌生的人合作來成就大事，

we can also trust future generations.

我們也能信任未來的世代。

The billions of people yet unborn into the future.

未來才會出生的數十億人。

Right now, today, we are benefiting from the work of previous generations

現今，我們就受惠於 先前世代的努力，

who undergone to create infrastructure --

他們費心費力建造了 我們現在享用的基礎設施——

roads canals, skyscrapers, telephone networks --

道路、運河、摩天大樓、電話網路。

that we are now enjoying.

事實上，我們所享用的好處

In fact, we may be enjoying more benefits than they have back in the past

可能比他們一開始時都還要多。

when they began.

他們一直為了我們扮演好的祖先，

So they have been acting as good ancestors for us,

and sometimes even sacrificing

有時甚至犧牲本來可以

what could have been immediate yields and benefits

立即得到的好處和益處，

and postponing them until future generations.

而將它們留給未來的世代。

We also want to be good ancestors,

我們也想扮演好的祖先，

and being good ancestors trying to move benefits to the future generations

而扮演好的祖先

並試著把益處轉移給未來世代 就是樂觀的舉動。

is an act of optimism.

One, because we believe that there will be future generations,

第一，因為我們相信還會 有未來的世代。

第二，因為我們願意犧牲

and two, because we are willing to sacrifice immediate gains

當下的收穫，以延遲——

in order to postpone --

have more gains into the future --

讓未來有更多收穫——

that investment.

那種投資。

Being a good ancestor enables us to actually accomplish things

扮演好的祖先，讓我們 能夠真正去達成不只是

not just beyond what we can do individually in the present,

現在個人能做到的目標， 還有隨時間我們能做到的目標。

but what we can do over time.

So when we trust the future,

所以，

當我們能相信未來，

one of the things that we are understanding

我們可以知道，未來的世代

is that future generations not only have better living standards

不僅因為進步而有 比較好的生活水平，

because of progress,

but they also have more capability to solve problems

他們也更有能力可以解決問題，

because there’s more knowledge

因為有更多知識，

and because they have better tools.

也因為他們有更好的工具。

And so we can trust that.

我們能相信那一點，

We can trust the fact that in the future,

我們能相信，在未來，

future generations will be able to solve problems

未來世代

可以解決我們自己無法解決的問題。

that we cannot solve ourselves.

So that means that we should be optimistic

那就表示，我們應該樂觀，

not because we believe that our problems are smaller than we thought.

原因並不是因為

我們相信我們的問題 比我們所想的更小。

We should be optimistic because we believe

我們應該要樂觀，是因為我們相信

that our capacity to solve problems is greater than we thought.

我們解決問題的能力 比我們所想的更好。

So that’s a second reason to be optimistic.

那是應該樂觀的第二個原因。

The third one has to do with problems

第三個原因和問題有關，

which are really disguised as opportunities.

問題其實會偽裝成機會。

OK, so optimists don’t shun problems.

所以樂觀的人不會閃避問題。

Optimism is about embracing problems,

樂觀就是要擁抱問題，

因為，問題造成了解決方案，

because it’s problems that make solutions

and solutions that make problems.

解決方案造成了問題。

So I believe that most of the problems we have today

所以，

我相信，現今我們大部分的問題

are generated by the solutions of the past.

是由過去的解決方案所產生的。

And the great one is this climate change.

氣候變遷就是很明顯的例子。

The solution in the past was artificial power --

過去的解決方案就是 人造電力——「要從哪裡得到？」

“Where do we get it?”

「好，有了。」 但現在就造成了問題。

“OK, here it is.”

But now it makes the problem now.

That means that today,

那就表示現今

most of the solutions that we have

我們大部分的解決方案 會在未來產生問題。

will be generating the problems of the future.

And there will be more problems

且將來會有更多問題，

because new solutions create many more problems.

因為新的解決方案 會創造出更多問題。

In the same way, when science answers a question,

同樣的道理，當科學解答了問題時，

that answer will generate two or three new questions --

那個答案會產生出 兩、三個新問題——

things that we didn’t even know we didn’t know.

我們根本不知道我們不知道的事。

And so, in a peculiar way,

所以，科學以很奇特的方式， 讓我們的無知擴展得比知識還快。

science is expanding our ignorance faster than our knowledge.

So we have an unlimited pool of questions and problems.

所以，我們的問題庫是無窮無盡的。

But problems don’t impede progress.

但問題並不會阻礙進步。

Problems are the conduit of progress.

問題是進步的導管。

No problems, no progress.

沒有問題，就沒有進步。

That is why I reject utopia,

那就是為什麼我排拒烏托邦， 因為那裡沒有問題。

because there are no problems there.

So even bad things that happen are basically possibilities

所以，發生的壞事，基本上 也仍然是一些可能性，

that yield new solutions and better opportunities.

可以產生新的解決方案

和更好的機會。

就那方面來說，問題是無限的。

So in that way, problems are unlimited.

There is no limit for improvement.

改善是沒有極限的。

So we can improve ourselves in all directions.

我們可以朝各種方向改善我們自己。

所以樂觀我們有選擇。 它不是性格。

So we have a choice about optimism.

It’s not a temperament.

No matter what your temperament is you can still choose to be optimistic.

不論你是什麼性格， 你都可以選擇樂觀。

And gigantic problems require gigantic optimism.

而龐大的問題需要龐大的樂觀。

We have a moral obligation to be optimistic,

樂觀是我們的道德義務，

because when we’re optimistic,

因為當我們樂觀時， 我們就能塑造未來，

we can shape the future,

we can become better ancestors,

我們可以成為更好的祖先，

we can expand our reach --

我們可以擴展我們豐富的——

create things bigger than ourselves.

讓我們的創造能超越個人。

And we can be a realist in aligning ourselves with this long arc of history

我們可以成為務實的人， 順著歷史漫長的弧線走下去，

and embracing problems as opportunities.

並把問題視為機會，擁抱它們。

With optimism,

有了樂觀，

we can use it as a power to kind of create the future that we want.

我們可以把它當作一種力量， 用來創造我們想要的未來。

This is the way.

就是這麼做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）