How to Prevent — or Stop — a War | Gabrielle Rifkind | TED

翻译人员: Bruce Wang 校对人员: Sue Lu

I have worked in international conflict resolution

我在国际上做冲突解决的工作

for the past two decades.

已经有二十年的时间了。

I am not a pacifist,

我虽然不是和平主义者，

but in the end, war is the greatest human rights abuse

但最终，战争是最大的侵犯人权行为，

and does not make the world safer.

也不能使世界更安全。

We think we go to war for good moral reasons.

我们认为开战是 出于良好的道德原因。

We're fighting for good to triumph over evil.

我们在为善而战，战胜邪恶。

Instead, we unleash a cascade

相反，我们引发了一连串的

of chaos and misery.

混乱和苦难。

In the 21st century,

在 21 世纪，

the United States,

美国

along with its allies and my country, the United Kingdom,

及其盟国和我的国家，英国

have been involved in four major wars:

卷入了四场重大战争：

Afghanistan, Iraq,

阿富汗、伊拉克、

Libya, Islamic State.

利比亚和伊斯兰国。

And we have provided funding

我们还提供了资金

and supplied military equipment to Ukraine and Israel.

和军事装备给乌克兰和以色列。

So let's consider the outcome of some of these wars.

所以让我们来看看这些战争的后果。

The Afghan war was a 20-year war,

阿富汗战争整整长达 20 年，

and we left the Taliban in power.

最终我们却让塔利班掌了权。

The war in Iraq,

在伊拉克战争中，

we had an immediate military victory,

我们迅速取得了军事胜利，

which was short-lived, civil war

可是胜利转瞬即逝， 而之后内战的爆发

and contributed to the war in Syria.

也助推了叙利亚战争。

The war in Libya unleashed chaos and violence in the Sahel region.

利比亚战争在萨赫勒地区 引发混乱和暴力。

The war against Islamic State weakened it militarily,

针对伊斯兰国的战争 在军事上削弱了它，

but none of the root causes were dealt with.

但没有任何根本原因得到解决。

All of you in the audience

观众中所有人

know war is horrendous,

都知道战争是可怕的，

but maybe many of you believe that it is inevitable.

但也许你们中的许多人 认为这是不可避免的。

I would like to persuade you today

今天我想说服大家，

that there are many things that we can do.

我们可以为和平做很多事情。

Even if we commit to arming countries militarily like porcupines.

即使我们承诺像刺猬一样 对国家进行军事武装，

We can commit ourselves to war prevention,

我们仍然可以致力于预防战争、

early mediation

早期调解

and getting into the mind of the enemy.

和深入了解敌人的思想。

I direct the Oxford Process.

我负责牛津进程（Oxford Process），

It's a conflict resolution organization,

它是一个冲突解决组织，

and what we try and do is create back channels

我们努力在做的是开辟秘密渠道，

to the political leadership at the highest levels

提供给最高层政治领导人，

of those who are in positions of power

因为他们掌握权力，

and can decide the future of the outcome of the war.

能够决定未来的战争结果。

I come from a group psychoanalytic background,

我来自群体心理分析背景，

but I'm passionately committed to putting together the human mind

但我热衷于整合人类思想

and geopolitics, its power relationships

和地缘政治、其权力关系

and what does and doesn’t lead to war.

以及导致战争与否的因素。

We know marginalization,

我们知道边缘化、

humiliation and exclusion are some of the key drivers of war.

羞辱和排斥是战争的 一些关键驱动因素。

We also know that war dehumanizes people.

我们还知道战争使人们失去人性。

Some of the conflicts I've worked on are the Palestine-Israel,

我研究过巴以冲突、

the Iranian nuclear issue and now the Russia-Ukraine war.

伊朗核问题以及现在的俄乌战争。

So what can we do to prevent war?

那么我们可以做些什么来防止战争呢？

We need to address the security concerns of all sides,

我们需要解决各方的安全顾虑，

not just our own security.

而不仅仅是我们自己的安全。

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014

俄罗斯在 2014 年入侵克里米亚，

and then all of Ukraine in 2022.

然后在 2022 年入侵整个乌克兰。

It was morally justified for us to support a country

这在道义上无可厚非， 如果我们支持的国家

whose sovereignty had been breached.

在主权上遭到侵犯。

But now, hundreds of thousands of people are dead and wounded.

但是现在，成千上万的人死伤。

And we do have to ask,

那么我们就必须问，

what else could we have done?

我们本来还能做些什么？

President Putin warned that if NATO edged up on the Russian border,

普京总统曾警告说， 如果北约逼近俄罗斯边境，

war would be the result.

结果将是战争。

In 2008,

2008 年，

President Bush stated Ukraine would join NATO.

布什总统表示乌克兰将加入北约。

Germany and France pushed back

德国和法国表示反对，

as they knew it would create a new crisis between Russia and the West.

因为他们知道这将在 俄罗斯和西方之间造成新的危机。

Would the US have tolerated a hostile military presence on its border

美国会容忍在墨西哥和加拿大边境的

in Mexico and Canada?

敌对军事存在吗？

We might have avoided this war

我们本可以避免这场战争的，

if we'd addressed the security concerns both of Russia and Europe,

如果我们解决了俄罗斯 和欧洲的安全顾虑，

and established a common European security architecture

并建立了共同的欧洲安全架构，

before the war,

这场战争就可以避免。

and it will need to happen afterwards.

现在，我们仍需在战后做这些事情。

Western governments

西方政府

could have played more of a mediating role

本可以发挥更多的调解作用，

supporting Ukraine to be a bridge between east and west,

支持乌克兰成为东西方之间的桥梁，

not just encouraging Ukraine into our zone of interest.

而不仅仅是鼓励乌克兰 进入我们的利益区。

Ukraine has difficult geography.

乌克兰的地理条件很差，

It will always need to find a way to coexist with its Russian neighbor.

它始终需要找到 与邻国俄罗斯共处的方法。

What else could we do?

我们还能做些什么？

We need to come off our moral pedestal

我们需要走下道德高地，

and stop deciding what is good and evil.

停止决定什么是善恶。

We need to talk to the bad guys,

我们需要与坏人、

the men of violence, if we are to end war.

暴力分子对话，如果想要结束战争。

We understood we had to talk to the IRA in Northern Ireland,

我们知道必须与北爱尔兰的 爱尔兰共和军、

FARC in Colombia and ETA in the Basque Country.

哥伦比亚的哥伦比亚革命武装力量 和巴斯克地区的埃塔交谈。

But usually we want to speak to the good guys, the people like us,

但是通常我们只想和好人、 像我们这样的人、

the people in gray suits.

穿灰色西装的人讲话。

Back in 2001, after the Afghan war,

早在 2001 年，阿富汗战争之后，

and as part of the Bonn peace process,

作为波恩和平进程的一部分，

if we had brought the Taliban in when they were weaker,

如果我们在塔利班 较弱的时候让他们掌权，

things may have looked different.

情况可能就会有所不同。

Western governments, including the US and the UK,

包括美国和英国在内的西方政府，

refused to talk to President Assad.

拒绝与阿萨德总统会谈。

They said it was talking to evil.

他们说这是在和邪恶谈话。

By not talking to him,

由于不和他对话，

we created a greater evil

我们制造了更大的邪恶，

as thousands and thousands more people died.

成千上万的人因此死亡。

Today, many of you will have the Ukraine-Russia war

今天，你们中许多人会想 到乌克兰——俄罗斯战争

and Hamas-Israel on your minds, and what can be done.

和哈马斯——以色列战争， 以及我们可以做些什么。

This is the work Oxford Process does quietly behind the scenes

这是牛津进程在幕后默默进行的工作，

to explore where there are opportunities to end war.

探索结束战争的机会所在。

But it requires the blessings of Western governments,

但这需要西方政府的支持，

and they often don't have an exit plan.

而且他们通常没有退出计划。

To end the war in Ukraine,

为了结束乌克兰的战争，

we will need to talk to President Putin.

我们需要和普京总统谈谈。

We will need to understand his red lines, what his endgame is,

我们需要了解他的红线， 他的终局是什么，

what opportunities there are for a ceasefire.

停火的机会有哪些。

After the heinous massacre of 7 October,

在 10 月 7 日 令人发指的大屠杀之后，

engaging with Hamas is unthinkable

许多以色列人无法想象

to many Israelis.

与哈马斯接触。

Following the terrible carnage in Gaza,

而在加沙发生可怕的大屠杀之后，

Hamas has even more support

哈马斯得到了更多的支持，

and will need to be included in some kind of future process.

那就需要让他们参与到未来某些进程。

Now both sides have dehumanized each other.

现在，双方都对彼此 进行了非人性化的行为。

One way through is the release of Marwan Barghouti,

出路之一是释放马尔万·巴尔古提。

a Palestinian leader who has spent the last two decades in an Israeli prison.

一位在过去二十年里一直在 以色列监狱服刑的巴勒斯坦领导人。

He supports a future Palestinian state sitting side by side with Israel,

他支持未来的巴勒斯坦国 与以色列并肩共处，

and he has the leadership qualities to unite the Palestinian people,

他具有团结巴勒斯坦人民的领导素质，

which will be essential.

这将是必不可少的。

For some, he's the new Mandela.

对于某些人来说，他是新的曼德拉。

For others, he has blood on his hands.

对于其他人来说，他手上沾满了鲜血。

In war, everybody has blood on their hands.

在战争中，每个人手上都沾满鲜血。

(Applause)

（掌声）

The Americans are now talking about a two-state solution,

美国人正在谈论两国解决方案，

which would involve normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

这将涉及沙特阿拉伯 和以色列之间的正常化。

And yet again,

再次重申，

we cannot just speak to our friends and exclude our enemies.

我们不能只和朋友谈话 而将敌人排除在外，

And Iran and its allies will only sabotage the process.

伊朗及其盟国只会破坏和平进程。

Each one of you here today wants to make a difference.

在座的每位都想有所作为，

But we can feel small

但我们会感到渺小

and impotent in the face of war.

和无能为力， 在面对战争时。

But how we behave individually

而我们此时的个人行为，

is a microcosm of how we behave in war.

是我们在战争中行为的缩影。

None of us like to engage with people who think differently to us.

我们都不喜欢与想法不同的人互动。

We all divide the world into good and evil.

我们都将世界分为善与恶，

People we want to talk to and people we don't.

将人分为想与之交谈的 和不想与之交谈的人。

But we need to engage with everybody

但是我们需要与所有人接触，

and understand the radical differences

了解我们之间存在的

that exist between us.

根本差异。

And we need to start today.

而且我们需要从今天开始。

What else can we do?

我们还能做什么？

We need to act early

我们需要尽早采取行动，

and put in place early mediating processes.

尽早制定调解程序。

In war, there's an opportunity for mediation.

在战争中，有不少机会进行调解。

In some wars, when the parties are on the precipice

在某些战争中， 当各方处于悬崖边缘，

and they're more open to compromise.

他们会更愿意妥协。

Then there's a second opportunity

还有一个机会，

when they've tested their battlefield strength

就是当他们测试了自己的战场实力，

and realized they have not achieved their original objectives.

意识到没有实现最初的目标时。

When these opportunities are missed,

如果错过这些机会，

the parties become hardened by the horrors and trauma of war.

各方就会因战争的恐怖 和创伤而变得更加强硬。

They believe they have sacrificed too much

他们认为已付出太多牺牲，

to compromise and make peace.

不可能再妥协以及讲和。

So what can we do to make these ideas real?

那么我们如何能 让和平的想法成为现实呢？

Today, the UN is a weakened institution,

今天，联合国是一个被削弱的机构，

and many have lost faith in it.

许多人对它失去了信心。

But if we're to be serious about peacemaking,

但如果我们要认真对待缔造和平，

we will need to strengthen it again.

就需要再次加强联合国。

One way through is to empower the UN

一种方法是授权联合国

to have statutory early mediation

进行法定早期调解，

when countries are on the edge of tipping to war.

And then three months later,

然后，三个月后，

when they've tested their battlefield strength.

当他们测试了自己的战场实力时。

The UN would also appoint permanent war prevention teams

联合国还将任命常设战争预防团队，

embedded in the countries at risk of going to war,

驻扎在有开战风险的国家；

high-level mediators and permanent peace tables.

同时指定高级调解员 和永久和平谈判桌。

We would establish them in such areas as Sudan,

这些将会建立在苏丹、

Pakistan-India, Taiwan-China,

巴基斯坦-印度、中国台湾、

Palestine-Israel, the US-China.

巴勒斯坦-以色列、美中等地区。

We would be committed to prevention and early intervention.

我们将致力于预防和早期干预。

(Applause)

（掌声）

So in conclusion,

总之，

liberal democracies should see themselves

自由民主国家应该将自己

first and foremost as mediators and bridge builders

and help countries manage their radical differences.

并帮助各国管理其根本分歧。

Not the world's self-appointed policeman or supplier of weapons.

不做世界自封的警察或武器供应商，

Instead of providing drones and missiles,

供应无人机和导弹；

we could contribute more resources and expertise to mediation

我们应该可以为调解和 建立和平提供更多的资源

and peacemaking.

We would put all our passions and pragmatism

我们将把所有的激情和务实

into avoiding war.

投入到避免战争中。

War is like a cancer.

战争就像癌症，

It spreads quickly.

传播得很快。

Once it has progressed far enough,

一旦发展到一定程度，

nobody knows how to stop it.

就没人知道如何阻止它。

Treat it quickly, even prevent it,

快速阻止，甚至预防战争，

millions of lives can be saved.

可以挽救数百万人的生命。

We behave as if war is inevitable.

我们表现得好像战争不可避免，

It is not.

其实，事实正相反。

Thank you, my friends.

谢谢你，我的朋友们。

(Applause)

（掌声）