How to Prevent — or Stop — a War | Gabrielle Rifkind | TED

譯者: Marian Lee 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

I have worked in international conflict resolution

我一直在從事國際衝突調解工作， 至今已二十年了，

for the past two decades.

I am not a pacifist,

我不是和平主義者，

but in the end, war is the greatest human rights abuse

但最終，戰爭是對人權的最大侵害，

and does not make the world safer.

且並不會讓世界變得更安全。

We think we go to war for good moral reasons.

我們認為我們是出於 好的道德理由而參戰。

We're fighting for good to triumph over evil.

我們為善良而戰，擊敗邪惡。

Instead, we unleash a cascade

但是，我們反而是引發 一連串的混亂和苦難。

of chaos and misery.

In the 21st century,

在二十一世紀，美國，

the United States,

along with its allies and my country, the United Kingdom,

和其盟友及我的國家，英國，

have been involved in four major wars:

介入了四場重大戰爭：

Afghanistan, Iraq,

阿富汗、伊拉克 利比亞、伊斯蘭國。

Libya, Islamic State.

我們也提供資金及供應軍事設備 給烏克蘭和以色列。

And we have provided funding

and supplied military equipment to Ukraine and Israel.

So let's consider the outcome of some of these wars.

我們來思考這些戰爭所帶來的結果。

The Afghan war was a 20-year war,

阿富汗戰爭長達 20 年，

and we left the Taliban in power.

而最終我們讓塔利班掌權。

The war in Iraq,

在伊拉克的戰爭，

we had an immediate military victory,

我們很快就取得了軍事勝利，

which was short-lived, civil war

但勝利很短暫， 內戰促成了敘利亞的戰爭。

and contributed to the war in Syria.

The war in Libya unleashed chaos and violence in the Sahel region.

利比亞的戰爭 導致薩赫勒地區充斥著混亂和暴力。

The war against Islamic State weakened it militarily,

與伊斯蘭國的戰爭， 削弱了其軍事力量，

but none of the root causes were dealt with.

但沒有解決任何引發戰爭的根本原因。

All of you in the audience

在座所有觀眾 都知道戰爭有多可怕，

know war is horrendous,

but maybe many of you believe that it is inevitable.

但也許在座有許多人認為 戰爭是無法避免的。

I would like to persuade you today

我今天想說服大家，

that there are many things that we can do.

有許多事是我們可以做的。

Even if we commit to arming countries militarily like porcupines.

即使我們承諾 要把國家軍事武裝成像刺蝟一樣，

We can commit ourselves to war prevention,

我們還是可以承諾去做到避免戰爭，

early mediation

早期調解，並了解敵人的思想。

and getting into the mind of the enemy.

I direct the Oxford Process.

我是牛津流程 (Oxford Process) 的負責人。

It's a conflict resolution organization,

它是個衝突解決組織，

and what we try and do is create back channels

我們試圖做的是 建立非正規的溝通管道，

to the political leadership at the highest levels

並提供給最高政治領導階層，

這些人掌握權力，

of those who are in positions of power

and can decide the future of the outcome of the war.

且可以決定未來的戰爭結果。

I come from a group psychoanalytic background,

我的背景是團體心理分析，

但我熱衷於結合人類思想

but I'm passionately committed to putting together the human mind

and geopolitics, its power relationships

、地緣政治，及權力關係，

and what does and doesn’t lead to war.

以及引發戰爭與否的因素。

We know marginalization,

我們知道邊緣化、羞辱，和排擠

humiliation and exclusion are some of the key drivers of war.

是促成戰爭的部分重要因素。

We also know that war dehumanizes people.

我們也知道戰爭會讓人失去人性。

Some of the conflicts I've worked on are the Palestine-Israel,

我研究過的衝突包括 巴勒斯坦—以色列戰爭，

the Iranian nuclear issue and now the Russia-Ukraine war.

伊朗核武問題， 以及現在的俄羅斯—烏克蘭戰爭。

So what can we do to prevent war?

我們能做什麼來避免戰爭？

我們得要解決各方的安全疑慮，

We need to address the security concerns of all sides,

not just our own security.

不只是我們自己的安全性。

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014

2014 年，俄羅斯入侵克里米亞，

and then all of Ukraine in 2022.

並在 2022 年入侵烏克蘭。

It was morally justified for us to support a country

在道德上，我們有很正當的理由去支持 一個主權受到侵犯的國家。

whose sovereignty had been breached.

But now, hundreds of thousands of people are dead and wounded.

但現在，已經有數十萬人死亡和受傷。

And we do have to ask,

我們必須要問，

what else could we have done?

我們本來還能做什麼？

President Putin warned that if NATO edged up on the Russian border,

普丁總統曾警告，

如果北約逐漸靠近俄羅斯邊境，

war would be the result.

結果就會是戰爭。

In 2008,

2008 年，布希總統表示 烏克蘭會加入北約。

President Bush stated Ukraine would join NATO.

Germany and France pushed back

德國和法國提出反對，

as they knew it would create a new crisis between Russia and the West.

因為他們知道這麼做會讓俄羅斯 和西方之間產生新的危機。

Would the US have tolerated a hostile military presence on its border

難道美國能夠容忍敵方的軍隊

出現在美國與墨西哥 和加拿大的邊境？

in Mexico and Canada?

We might have avoided this war

我們也許可以避免這場戰爭，

if we'd addressed the security concerns both of Russia and Europe,

如果我們當初有解決 俄羅斯和歐洲的安全疑慮，

and established a common European security architecture

並在戰爭之前建立一個 共同的歐洲安全架構，

before the war,

and it will need to happen afterwards.

且往後我們必須要做到這些。

Western governments

西方政府本來可以發揮 更多的調解作用，

could have played more of a mediating role

supporting Ukraine to be a bridge between east and west,

支持烏克蘭成為東西方之間的橋樑，

not just encouraging Ukraine into our zone of interest.

而不只是鼓勵烏克蘭 進入我們的利益範圍。

Ukraine has difficult geography.

烏克蘭的地理位置複雜。

It will always need to find a way to coexist with its Russian neighbor.

它會一直需要尋找 和鄰國俄羅斯共存的方法。

What else could we do?

我們還能做什麼？

We need to come off our moral pedestal

我們需要脫離我們的道德優越感，

and stop deciding what is good and evil.

別再決定什麼是善什麼是惡。

We need to talk to the bad guys,

如果我們想終結戰爭，我們就得 和壞人、暴力的人對談，

the men of violence, if we are to end war.

We understood we had to talk to the IRA in Northern Ireland,

我們知道我們必須 與北愛爾蘭共和軍對談，

FARC in Colombia and ETA in the Basque Country.

還有哥倫比亞革命武裝力量 以及巴斯克地區的埃塔組織。

But usually we want to speak to the good guys, the people like us,

但通常我們只想跟好人談話，

跟與我們相似的人、 穿著灰色西裝的人談話。

the people in gray suits.

Back in 2001, after the Afghan war,

2001 年，阿富汗戰爭之後，

and as part of the Bonn peace process,

在波恩和平協議進行時，

if we had brought the Taliban in when they were weaker,

如果我們在塔利班較弱的 時候就把他們納入談判，

things may have looked different.

情況可能會有所不同。

Western governments, including the US and the UK,

西方政府，包括美國和英國，

refused to talk to President Assad.

拒絕與阿塞德總統談話。

They said it was talking to evil.

他們說那是跟邪惡談話。

By not talking to him,

因為不和他談話，

we created a greater evil

我們反而創造出更大的邪惡，

as thousands and thousands more people died.

造成數以千計的人死亡。

Today, many of you will have the Ukraine-Russia war

今天，在座許多人會想起烏俄戰爭

and Hamas-Israel on your minds, and what can be done.

和哈瑪斯—以色列戰爭， 還有我們可以做什麼。

This is the work Oxford Process does quietly behind the scenes

這是牛津流程在幕後默默做的工作，

to explore where there are opportunities to end war.

找尋結束戰爭的機會。

But it requires the blessings of Western governments,

不過這需要西方政府的支持，

and they often don't have an exit plan.

他們通常沒有退出計畫。

To end the war in Ukraine,

為了結束在烏克蘭的戰爭，

we will need to talk to President Putin.

我們需要與普亭總統談談。

We will need to understand his red lines, what his endgame is,

我們須要了解他的底線、 他的最終目標為何，

what opportunities there are for a ceasefire.

有什麼停火的機會。

After the heinous massacre of 7 October,

在 10 月 7 日令人髮指 的大屠殺之後，

engaging with Hamas is unthinkable

對許多以色列人來說， 與哈馬斯交談是不可能的。

to many Israelis.

Following the terrible carnage in Gaza,

在加薩發生了可怕的屠殺之後，

Hamas has even more support

哈馬斯獲得了更多的支持，

and will need to be included in some kind of future process.

且需要被納入未來的某些程序中。

Now both sides have dehumanized each other.

現在兩方已經讓彼此失去人性了。

One way through is the release of Marwan Barghouti,

一種解決方法是 釋放馬爾萬·巴爾古提，

a Palestinian leader who has spent the last two decades in an Israeli prison.

他是一位過去二十年被監禁在 以色列監獄的巴勒斯坦領導人。

He supports a future Palestinian state sitting side by side with Israel,

他支持未來的巴勒斯坦國 和以色列並肩共處，

and he has the leadership qualities to unite the Palestinian people,

且他具有團結巴勒斯坦人民 的領導能力，

which will be essential.

這是至關重要的。

For some, he's the new Mandela.

對某些人來說，他是新的曼德拉。

For others, he has blood on his hands.

對於其他人來說，他的手上沾滿鮮血。

In war, everybody has blood on their hands.

在戰爭中，每個人手上都有血。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

The Americans are now talking about a two-state solution,

美國人現在正在談論兩國方案，

which would involve normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

將涉及沙烏地阿拉伯和以色列 的關係正常化。

And yet again,

再一次，我們不能只是與朋友談話， 排除敵人。

we cannot just speak to our friends and exclude our enemies.

And Iran and its allies will only sabotage the process.

伊朗和其盟友只會破壞這個過程。

Each one of you here today wants to make a difference.

今天，每個人都想做出改變。

But we can feel small

但是，面對戰爭， 我們感到渺小且無力。

and impotent in the face of war.

But how we behave individually

但是我們的個別行為，

is a microcosm of how we behave in war.

是我們在戰爭中的行為縮影。

None of us like to engage with people who think differently to us.

沒有人喜歡與我們不同想法的人交流。

We all divide the world into good and evil.

我們都將世界分為善和惡。

People we want to talk to and people we don't.

分為我們想交談的人 ，和我們不想交談的人

But we need to engage with everybody

但是，我們需要與每個人互動，

and understand the radical differences

並了解我們之間存在的根本差異。

that exist between us.

And we need to start today.

我們需要從今天開始。

What else can we do?

我們還能做什麼？

We need to act early

我們需要及早採取行動，

and put in place early mediating processes.

並採取早期調解程序。

In war, there's an opportunity for mediation.

在戰爭中，有一個調解的機會。

In some wars, when the parties are on the precipice

在某些戰爭中，當雙方皆處於險境，

and they're more open to compromise.

他們更願意妥協。

Then there's a second opportunity

還有第二次機會，

when they've tested their battlefield strength

就是當他們測試自己的戰場實力，

and realized they have not achieved their original objectives.

並意識到自己沒有達到起初的目標時。

When these opportunities are missed,

當這些機會被錯過時，

the parties become hardened by the horrors and trauma of war.

雙方會因戰爭的恐怖和創傷 而變得強硬。

They believe they have sacrificed too much

他們會認為已犧牲了太多了 而不願妥協和創造和平。

to compromise and make peace.

So what can we do to make these ideas real?

那麼我們可以做什麼 來實現這些想法？

Today, the UN is a weakened institution,

今天，聯合國是一個被弱化的機構，

and many have lost faith in it.

許多人已經失去了對它的信心。

But if we're to be serious about peacemaking,

但如果我們要認真地建立和平，

we will need to strengthen it again.

我們將需要再次強化它。

One way through is to empower the UN

其中一種方法是賦予聯合國權力，

to have statutory early mediation

在國家處於戰爭的邊緣時 進行法定的早期調解。

when countries are on the edge of tipping to war.

And then three months later,

還有在三個月後，

when they've tested their battlefield strength.

當他們測試了自己的戰場實力時。

The UN would also appoint permanent war prevention teams

聯合國亦會委任常設的戰爭預防團隊，

embedded in the countries at risk of going to war,

在面臨戰爭風險的國家駐點。

high-level mediators and permanent peace tables.

高階調解員和常設的和平談判桌。

We would establish them in such areas as Sudan,

我們會在蘇丹、巴基斯坦-印度、

Pakistan-India, Taiwan-China,

台灣-中國、巴勒斯坦-以色列、 美國-中國等地區建立。

Palestine-Israel, the US-China.

We would be committed to prevention and early intervention.

我們將致力於預防和早期干預。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So in conclusion,

所以總結來說，

liberal democracies should see themselves

自由民主國家應首先將自己

first and foremost as mediators and bridge builders

視為調解者和橋樑建設者，

and help countries manage their radical differences.

並協助各國管理其根本的差異。

Not the world's self-appointed policeman or supplier of weapons.

而不是自封為 世界的警察或武器供應商。

Instead of providing drones and missiles,

與其提供無人機和導彈，

we could contribute more resources and expertise to mediation

我們可以為調解和建立和平 貢獻更多資源和專業知識。

and peacemaking.

We would put all our passions and pragmatism

我們會把我們所有的熱情和實務 投入在避免戰爭這件事上。

into avoiding war.

War is like a cancer.

戰爭就像癌症

It spreads quickly.

它的傳播速度很快。

Once it has progressed far enough,

一旦發展到一定程度，

nobody knows how to stop it.

沒有人知道如何阻止它。

Treat it quickly, even prevent it,

快速治療，甚至預防它， 可以拯救數百萬的生命。

millions of lives can be saved.

We behave as if war is inevitable.

我們表現得好像戰爭是不可避免的。

It is not.

其實，是可避免的。

Thank you, my friends.

謝謝你們，我的朋友。

(Applause)

（掌聲）