Nigel Topping: 3 rules for a zero-carbon world | TED Countdown

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer:

翻译人员: Angel Tang 校对人员: Cissy Yun

My grandfather grew up in the northwest of England,

surrounded by over 1,000 coal mines

within just five miles of his hometown of Wigan.

我的祖父在英格兰的西北部长大，

And today I’m speaking to you from the site of another former mine,

距离他的家乡威根市五英里的范围内

this time a China clay mine at the Eden Project in southwest England.

就有 1000 多座煤矿。

For generations,

现在我讲话的地方曾是一个矿场，

my grandfather’s ancestors were coal miners,

and it would have been only natural for him to follow in their footsteps.

以前是个粘土矿， 位于英格兰西南部的“伊甸园工程”。

But he didn't want to go down the mine.

世世代代以来，

He chose a different path

我祖父的祖先们都是矿工。

and got a scholarship to study mathematics.

对他来说，追随祖辈的脚步 是个理所当然的选择。

And years later, I followed him into mathematics,

但他不想在矿井里工作。

where I discovered a real love of patterns

他选择了另外一条路，

选择了学习数学，并获得了奖学金。

and of figuring out the underlying rules that generate them.

很多年之后， 我也跟随他的脚步学了数学；

And later, when I went to work in industry,

I realized that every human system

并发现自己热爱规律、

and every natural system can be thought of as a set of repeating patterns.

热爱琢磨规律形成的原因。

For example, take the energy system.

后来，在我工作的时候，

We can still trace the patterns of our reliance on fossil fuels

我发现每一个人类系统 和每一个自然系统

都可以被想作一系列重复的规律。

all the way back to the early 1700s,

when we started to really use all that coal.

拿能源系统打个比方：

我们现仍可以把我们 对化石燃料的规律性依赖

And to tackle climate change,

we’re going to have to move towards new patterns

that are based on clean power.

追溯到 18 世纪早期，

When I wasn’t exploring patterns, I was developing a love of wild places,

那时候人类开始大量使用煤炭。

要想解决气候变化问题，

particularly cold, wild places like Greenland, Iceland and Patagonia.

我们将会需要采用新的规律，

一种依赖于清洁能源的规律性模式。

当我不在探索事物的规律的时候， 我喜欢待在野外，

And it was there that I first came face-to-face

with the physical impact of climate change.

尤其是寒冷、荒凉的地方， 像格陵兰、冰岛和巴塔哥尼亚。

In 1987, I was supposed to be working at the end of a glacier in east Greenland.

在那儿，我第一次面对面地

And when we got to where it was shown on the map,

切身感受到了气候变化的影响。

there was no ice there.

1987年的时候，我本该在 东格陵兰的一个冰川边缘工作。

It had retreated by over 15 kilometers since the map had been surveyed.

等我们抵达地图上标记的工作地点，

Something was changing the patterns.

我们发现那里已经没有冰了。

自绘图以来， 冰川的边界已经后撤了 15 公里。

Now I find myself in the role

of the United Nations Climate Action Champion,

working with an amazing network of partners

一些东西正在改变原有的规律。

to change the patterns of the global economy

现在我是联合国的气候变化大使，

to tackle the climate crisis.

Our mission is to help drive the transition

我与和很多优秀的合作伙伴一起

通过改变全球经济的现有模式

to the zero-carbon future,

to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius,

来解决气候危机。

我们想促进人类过渡到

or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit

零碳排放的未来,

and to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

把全球变暖的程度 控制在 1.5 摄氏度之内，

Well, tackling the climate crisis can be really overwhelming,

especially if you try and look at it through the lenses of politics

也就是 2.7 华氏度，

以此防止气候变化导致的最糟情况。

or economics.

It’s a huge, complex problem,

解决气候危机是件压力极大的任务，

it’s very hard to get your head around it.

But I find that there’s a different lens

尤其是从政治或者经济的角度看。

that can make it much easier to grapple with and even lead to optimism.

这是个巨大的、复杂的问题，

It’s the lens of systems

是很难理清头绪的。

which I define simply as the science of patterns and their underlying rules.

然而，我发现有个不同的视角

能使理解这件事情变得更容易， 甚至能使人乐观起来。

But what do I mean by a system?

这便是一个系统性的视角；

I think of a system as a set of interconnected relationships

我称之为 寻找规律及其形成原因的科学。

which lead to a repeatable and recognizable pattern.

但我说的系统是指什么呢？

So to give you an example,

我理解的系统， 是互相关联的关系的集合；

let’s think of the global maritime shipping industry.

It’s huge.

这种集合里蕴藏着 重复的、可识别的规律。

It's responsible for transporting over 80 percent of global trade

让我举个例子：

and it produces similar emissions to the entire country of Germany.

想一下全球的海洋运输产业，

是个十分庞大的产业。

And this system consists of the interconnected relationships

它承担着80%以上的全球贸易运输，

along the value chain between shipping manufacturers,

产业碳排放量相当于 德国全国的排放总量。

fuel manufacturers, ports,

the shipping operators and the cargo owners

这套系统是由

环环相扣的价值链组成的。 其中有运输商、

and those influences around it,

the policymakers, the financiers, technology providers and civil society.

燃料制造商、港口、

That’s what I mean by a system.

负责海运的船员、货主，

And our job is to drive the transformation in every global system,

还有那些影响这个行业的人：

政策制定者、金融人士、 科技供应商和公民社会。

from agriculture to retail,

from shipping to trucking,

这是我提到的“系统”的意思。

而我们的任务是促进 每个全球性的系统的变革，

from cement to steel,

比如说农业、零售业、

so that collectively we move towards a zero-carbon future.

海运、陆运、

So the question is,

what are the underlying rules that we need to apply

水泥和钢铁，

从而使我们集体过渡到 一个零碳排放的未来。

to lead to new zero-carbon patterns in the economy?

那么问题来了，

Well, we’ve come up with three simple rules of radical collaboration

我们需要应用哪些基本规则

来引领经济走向零碳排放的新模式呢？

that, if acted on by all actors in each system,

对此，我们总结出能彻底改变 合作方式的三条简单规则；

will lead us to the zero-carbon future.

Rule one is to harness ambition loops,

如果每一个系统里的主体按规执行，

which are simply feedback loops driving ever-higher levels of ambition.

零碳排放的未来就可以实现。

For example, when businesses commit to zero carbon

第一条法则： 利用雄心循环，

and start investing and innovating,

其实就是一种不断放大 志向目标的机制。

they embolden policymakers.

And when policymakers set the regulatory framework

打比方说，当有企业决心实行零碳排放，

并为这个目标投入资金和 开发创新的时候，

to drive towards zero carbon,

这种现象会鞭策政策制定者。

they incentivize the private sector to innovate.

That’s an ambition loop,

当决策者制定了监管框架

and every relationship within each system

is an opportunity to drive an ambition loop

以实现零碳排放时，

towards new zero-carbon patterns in the system.

他们会激励私企去进一步地创新。

这就是雄心循环，

Rule two is to set exponential goals.

而每一个系统里的每一段关系

都是推进雄心循环的一次机会，

We know from history that every major industrial disruption

让我们离零碳排放的新模式更近一步。

has followed the same shape,

an exponential curve,

第二条法则：设立指数型增长的目标。

with new technologies being adopted very slowly at first,

我们从历史里总结出， 每一次主要的工业变革

but then a doubling rate kicking in consistently,

都按着一个同样的形状发展

until the overall transformation happens very quickly in the end.

一个指数曲线：

一开始，对新科技的采用非常缓慢，

It’s a movie we’ve seen many times before,

whether from horses to cars,

但会突然开始持续地成倍增长，

from valves to transistors or landlines to mobile phones.

直到最后整个系统 迅速地完成彻底转变。

这种情节我们已经看了好多遍了，

And we understand how it works.

比如从马发展到车，

Initially, the cost of technology is high, but as we learn through volume adoption,

从阀门到晶体管， 或是从座机到手机。

the cost goes down and adoption goes up.

Best example right now would be electric batteries

我们明白这是种怎样的过程。

一开始，启用新科技的成本是很高的， 但随着新科技被越多地使用，

consistently coming down in cost

by 20 percent a year for the last 10 years.

成本会降低， 而使用率会因此进一步提升。

现在最好的例子就是蓄电池了。

And as the volume of adoption grows,

especially with electric vehicle sales growing,

蓄电池的价格持续降低，

过去十年里 每年都下降了20%。

we can be confident that the costs of that technology

will continue to go down,

随着价格的下降，使用率越来越高，

driving that exponential growth.

考虑到电动汽车持续上升的销量，

We set these exponential goals

because we believe in the power of human innovation.

我们确信蓄电池的价格

还会继续降低，

Engineers love these goals, these stretch targets,

引发指数型增长。

设立这些指数型目标，

it’s what they live for.

The third rule is to follow shared action pathways.

是因为我们相信人类科技创新 蕴含的力量。

And these are maps of the actions

工程师们喜欢这些目标， 这些有挑战性的延伸目标，

which every action in the system has to take in the short term

这就是他们生命里的乐趣。

第三条法则： 遵守共同的行动路径。

to make sure we’re on track to that exponential goal.

这些是行动路径的布局

Actions that, if everyone in the system follows,

系统中的每一个行动 都必须在短期内采取

means that we’ll be on track to the zero-carbon future.

We normally set these for a relatively short period of time

以确保我们在指数目标的轨道上。

for the next five years,

如果系统里的每个人 都能按计划行动，

and then we’ll review and set the next phase of the journey.

我们就能到达零碳排放的未来了。

By following these three simple rules of radical collaboration,

我们通常会为这些行动 设置一个较短的时段，

一次五年计划，

we can drive the race to zero emissions.

五年结束后，我们会再总结 并讨论下一阶段计划的制定。

And my team now, with hundreds of partners,

只要我们都遵守这三条简单的法则，

have created a toolkit for these three goals

for every sector of the global economy.

人类就能实现零碳排放。

They’ve mapped the interconnected ambition loops,

为了这个目标，我的团队 和数以百计的合作伙伴

they plotted exponential goals, and they’ve published shared pathways.

设计了一个帮助达成 这三个目标的“工具箱”，

为全球经济中的各行各业。

Now, I said earlier on,

其中计划了 环环相扣的雄心循环，

that adopting a systems lens can help us to be more optimistic,

设立了指数型的目标， 也发布了共同的行动路径。

and I’m very optimistic.

So let’s try to explain why by looking at the application of those three rules

像我之前提到的那样，

to the shipping system that we looked at earlier.

采用一个系统性的视角 能让我们变得更加的乐观，

First of all, we just remind ourselves

因此我十分乐观。

of all of those interconnected ambition loops

让我们来一起看看 这三条法则如何应用到

that we’re going to be harnessing.

Second of all, we set our exponential goal.

之前提过的全球海运系统上。

首先，我们只需要提醒自己

We’re at zero now,

and we’ve got to get to 100 percent of all ships being zero-carbon by 2050.

那些环环相扣的雄心循环，

我们将要利用他们。

然后，我们会设定指数型的目标。

When we plot the exponential curve,

we see that we need to get to five percent by 2030.

我们现在正处 0% 的位置，

我们需要在 2050 年之前 实现 100% 的船只零碳排放。

Now, that may not seem like much, but starting from zero,

that’s a big change,

当我们画出指数曲线的时候，

and it will drive the learning which drives down the cost,

我们发现在 2030 年的 我们需要增长至 5%。

which means that in the ’30s we can really accelerate

这看起来没多少， 但是从零开始，

and finish the job in the ’40s.

这已经是个非常大的转变了，

So how are we doing against the shared action pathway,

这个转变会促进人类对新技术的学习， 从而降低新技术的成本，

说明 2030 年起 我们可以迅速加速

which is the next of our tools?

并在 2040-2050 年之间完成目标。

Well, it turns out we’re doing pretty well, actually.

那么，针对共同的行动路径 我们正处什么位置呢？

The biggest container shipping company in the world, Maersk,

has already committed to buying its first zero-carbon vessel in 2023.

这是三大法则中的最后一个法则。

其实，我们现在做的已经挺不错了。

German utility Juniper has abandoned plans to invest in gas infrastructure

世界上最大的集装箱海运公司马士基

已经承诺在2023年 购买第一艘零碳排放的轮船。

in the port of Wilhelmshaven

and is instead investing in green amonia infrastructure.

德国能源公司 Uniper 已经放弃了 他们在威廉港

Customers are coming together to form a cargo owners

zero-emission vessels initiative,

对天然气基础设施的投资，

转而投资于绿色的氨能基础设施。

sending a demand signal to container operators.

货主们也集合起来发起了

And policymakers are shifting too,

零碳排放船只倡议书，

the EU is extending its emissions trading scheme

对运输员发出了要求零碳的信号。

to cover shipping emissions,

which will put a price on carbon

and incentivize investments in green fuel infrastructure.

政策制定者也在转变，

欧盟正在将对贸易的排放要求延展到

Technology companies are coming together.

Seven of them have formed the Green Hydrogen Catapult

运输业上，

增加碳排放的成本，

to drive the cost of green hydrogen down to below two dollars a kilogram

从而激励资金涌入 绿色能源的基建项目。

科技公司也联合在了一起。

in the next five years,

crucial action on that pathway towards commercial viability

其中七家公司已经成立了 “绿色氢能发射器”项目，

致力于将绿色氢能的成本降低至 每公斤两美元，

for zero-carbon vessels.

And civil society is influencing the system as well.

于接下来的五年内实现；

在共同行动路径中， 这是有助于提高船只零碳排放

In the Netherlands,

over 10,000 citizens have taken shipping fuel manufacturer Shell to court,

的商业可行性的重要举措。

市民社会也在影响这整个系统。

and the court has found that Shell must reduce its emissions

在荷兰，

much more ambitiously, by 45 percent by 2030.

超过一万市民把运输燃油巨头 壳牌告上了法庭。

So you can see that we now have radical collaboration in the shipping system,

法庭判决表明， 壳牌必须更大幅地减少它的碳排放，

在2030年前需要减少 45%。

driving progress towards that exponential goal.

And that's just one system in the world economy.

所以你可以看到 我们在运输系统中有了激进的合作，

So the great news today

is that now thousands of countries and companies,

朝着指数级的目标前进。

of cities and investors,

这只是全球经济中的一个系统。

of states and civil-society organizations

今天，我有一个好消息，

are all implementing these three simple rules of radical collaboration

成千的国家和公司、

城市和投资人、

and converging actions towards exponential goals.

政府和民间组织

They’re not fully aligned yet, of course,

都在积极实行 这三个颠覆性合作的简单法则，

but the more we converge, the lower the risk,

这些力量汇集起来， 推动我们向指数型目标迈进。

the lower the costs and the faster that we can go.

And so what might have seemed a real stretch or even impossible

当然，他们还未完全达到步调一致，

但我们合作的越多， 风险越小，

just a few years ago,

seems eminently achievable now.

改革成本越低， 我们就能更快达成目标。

My favorite example of this phenomenon is the transition to electric vehicles.

所以我们觉得有点牵强， 甚至是不可能的事情，

In 2016, the world’s leading forecasters of the energy system

仅仅几年内

就已经看起来可行多了。

我对这个现象最喜欢的例子就是 向电动汽车的转变。

were telling us that we’ll still be buying combustion engine cars

in the 2080s.

2016 年， 世界领先的能源系统预测者

Five years later, in 2021, the vehicle manufacturers of the world

告诉我们：一直到 2080 年

and the policymakers of the world

are converging on the exponential goal of 100 percent zero-emission vehicles,

我们都会继续买燃油车。

五年后，2021年 世界上所有的汽车制造商

the end of the combustion engine in the mid-2030s.

和政策制定者

都在为 100% 零碳排放汽车的 指数目标努力，

In just five years,

the future’s come forward by five decades.

于2035年左右 使燃油车全面退出市场。

Now, as I said, this task of tackling the climate crisis

and driving this transition can be really daunting.

仅仅5年内，

我们与想要的未来靠近了50年。

But as always, we can turn to nature for inspiration

现在，像我之前说的那样， 解决气候危机

on how following a few simple rules can lead to beautiful new patterns.

和引导转变都是非常艰巨的任务。

但我们一如既往地可以 从大自然中汲取灵感：

Take a look at the stunning shapes

that these flocks of starlings are forming in the sky,

通过遵守一些简单的法则 创造出崭新的、美丽的规律。

by following their own three simple rules of radical flocking.

看看那令人惊叹的

Rule one, pay attention to each other and don’t get too close,

椋鸟群在空中飞行时的队形，

rule two, fly in the same general direction,

他们也是遵守了鸟群的 三条简单法则。

and rule three, don’t fly too far away from each other.

第一条， 关注伙伴，保持距离。

Pretty close to our own three simple rules of radical collaboration:

第二条， 向相同方向飞行。

One, harness ambition loops, two, pursue exponential goals,

第三条， 别跟自己的伙伴离得太远。

three, follow shared action pathways.

这与人类的三条合作原则 非常相近的：

Now, I want to finish by reflecting on one final and crucial ambition loop,

第一，利用雄心循环； 第二，设立指数型目标；

one that enables all of the others.

第三，遵守共同的行为计划。

This is the feedback loop

现在，作为总结，我想要探讨 一个终极的雄心循环，

between the stories that we tell of the path to the future

这个循环可让 所有其他目标都得以实现。

and the future that we create

这个反馈回路

and the actions that we take today.

串联着我们如何描述 通往未来的路径，

We humans are storytellers, we're born storytellers,

we tell stories to each other all the time.

我们创造的未来，

以及我们现在的行动。

These stories of the future are our ambition loop.

人类是讲故事的人， 我们天生就是讲故事的人，

So if we tell stories full of fear and failure,

我们无时不刻都在 互相讲述故事。

then we will dispirit and disempower each other,

这些关于未来的故事就是 雄心循环的一部分。

所以如果我们讲的故事里 充斥着恐惧和失败，

We’ll derail our collective efforts to build a better future.

那我们就会让彼此垂头丧气，

But when we tell positive stories,

we tap into the very best of the human spirit,

we inspire collaboration and innovation.

就可能让我们共同努力付之东流， 无法建设一个更好的未来。

So it’s crucial that we pay real attention

但当我们讲述积极的故事时，

to the stories that we’re sharing about our pathway on the race to zero.

我们就会激发人类灵魂 最好的那一面，

就会促进合作、鼓励创新。

We have to make sure we seek out

所以，怎么去叙述 走向零碳排放的故事

and select positive examples of change

是非常关键的。

along those pathways to the exponential goals

and share them widely.

我们需要确保

That’s how we build the most important and powerful ambition loop of all.

在通往指数目标的路径上

寻找和选择一些积极的变革事例，

Because the stories that we tell the most often

are the ones that will come true.

并广泛地分享它们。

这就是我们构建最重要、 最强大的雄心循环的方法。

Thank you.

因为我们讲得最频繁的故事

是会变成现实的。

谢谢大家。