Nigel Topping: 3 rules for a zero-carbon world | TED Countdown

64,642 views ・ 2021-08-16

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00:00
Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer:
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翻译人员: Angel Tang 校对人员: Cissy Yun
00:04
My grandfather grew up in the northwest of England,
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surrounded by over 1,000 coal mines
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00:10
within just five miles of his hometown of Wigan.
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我的祖父在英格兰的西北部长大,
00:14
And today I’m speaking to you from the site of another former mine,
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距离他的家乡威根市五英里的范围内
00:17
this time a China clay mine at the Eden Project in southwest England.
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就有 1000 多座煤矿。
00:22
For generations,
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现在我讲话的地方曾是一个矿场,
00:23
my grandfather’s ancestors were coal miners,
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00:26
and it would have been only natural for him to follow in their footsteps.
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以前是个粘土矿, 位于英格兰西南部的“伊甸园工程”。
00:30
But he didn't want to go down the mine.
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世世代代以来,
00:32
He chose a different path
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我祖父的祖先们都是矿工。
00:33
and got a scholarship to study mathematics.
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对他来说,追随祖辈的脚步 是个理所当然的选择。
00:36
And years later, I followed him into mathematics,
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但他不想在矿井里工作。
00:39
where I discovered a real love of patterns
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他选择了另外一条路,
选择了学习数学,并获得了奖学金。
00:43
and of figuring out the underlying rules that generate them.
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很多年之后, 我也跟随他的脚步学了数学;
00:46
And later, when I went to work in industry,
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00:48
I realized that every human system
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并发现自己热爱规律、
00:50
and every natural system can be thought of as a set of repeating patterns.
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热爱琢磨规律形成的原因。
00:55
For example, take the energy system.
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后来,在我工作的时候,
00:57
We can still trace the patterns of our reliance on fossil fuels
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我发现每一个人类系统 和每一个自然系统
都可以被想作一系列重复的规律。
01:01
all the way back to the early 1700s,
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01:03
when we started to really use all that coal.
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拿能源系统打个比方:
我们现仍可以把我们 对化石燃料的规律性依赖
01:06
And to tackle climate change,
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01:07
we’re going to have to move towards new patterns
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01:09
that are based on clean power.
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追溯到 18 世纪早期,
01:11
When I wasn’t exploring patterns, I was developing a love of wild places,
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那时候人类开始大量使用煤炭。
要想解决气候变化问题,
01:16
particularly cold, wild places like Greenland, Iceland and Patagonia.
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我们将会需要采用新的规律,
一种依赖于清洁能源的规律性模式。
当我不在探索事物的规律的时候, 我喜欢待在野外,
01:21
And it was there that I first came face-to-face
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01:24
with the physical impact of climate change.
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尤其是寒冷、荒凉的地方, 像格陵兰、冰岛和巴塔哥尼亚。
01:26
In 1987, I was supposed to be working at the end of a glacier in east Greenland.
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在那儿,我第一次面对面地
01:31
And when we got to where it was shown on the map,
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切身感受到了气候变化的影响。
01:33
there was no ice there.
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1987年的时候,我本该在 东格陵兰的一个冰川边缘工作。
01:35
It had retreated by over 15 kilometers since the map had been surveyed.
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等我们抵达地图上标记的工作地点,
01:40
Something was changing the patterns.
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我们发现那里已经没有冰了。
自绘图以来, 冰川的边界已经后撤了 15 公里。
01:44
Now I find myself in the role
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01:46
of the United Nations Climate Action Champion,
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01:49
working with an amazing network of partners
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一些东西正在改变原有的规律。
01:52
to change the patterns of the global economy
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现在我是联合国的气候变化大使,
01:55
to tackle the climate crisis.
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01:58
Our mission is to help drive the transition
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我与和很多优秀的合作伙伴一起
通过改变全球经济的现有模式
02:02
to the zero-carbon future,
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02:03
to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius,
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来解决气候危机。
我们想促进人类过渡到
02:08
or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit
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零碳排放的未来,
02:11
and to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
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把全球变暖的程度 控制在 1.5 摄氏度之内,
02:14
Well, tackling the climate crisis can be really overwhelming,
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02:17
especially if you try and look at it through the lenses of politics
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也就是 2.7 华氏度,
以此防止气候变化导致的最糟情况。
02:20
or economics.
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02:22
It’s a huge, complex problem,
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解决气候危机是件压力极大的任务,
02:24
it’s very hard to get your head around it.
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02:26
But I find that there’s a different lens
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尤其是从政治或者经济的角度看。
02:28
that can make it much easier to grapple with and even lead to optimism.
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这是个巨大的、复杂的问题,
02:32
It’s the lens of systems
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是很难理清头绪的。
02:34
which I define simply as the science of patterns and their underlying rules.
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然而,我发现有个不同的视角
能使理解这件事情变得更容易, 甚至能使人乐观起来。
02:41
But what do I mean by a system?
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这便是一个系统性的视角;
02:42
I think of a system as a set of interconnected relationships
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我称之为 寻找规律及其形成原因的科学。
02:47
which lead to a repeatable and recognizable pattern.
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但我说的系统是指什么呢?
02:50
So to give you an example,
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我理解的系统, 是互相关联的关系的集合;
02:52
let’s think of the global maritime shipping industry.
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02:55
It’s huge.
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这种集合里蕴藏着 重复的、可识别的规律。
02:56
It's responsible for transporting over 80 percent of global trade
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让我举个例子:
03:00
and it produces similar emissions to the entire country of Germany.
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想一下全球的海洋运输产业,
是个十分庞大的产业。
03:05
And this system consists of the interconnected relationships
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它承担着80%以上的全球贸易运输,
03:08
along the value chain between shipping manufacturers,
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产业碳排放量相当于 德国全国的排放总量。
03:11
fuel manufacturers, ports,
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03:13
the shipping operators and the cargo owners
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这套系统是由
环环相扣的价值链组成的。 其中有运输商、
03:16
and those influences around it,
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03:17
the policymakers, the financiers, technology providers and civil society.
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燃料制造商、港口、
03:22
That’s what I mean by a system.
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负责海运的船员、货主,
03:23
And our job is to drive the transformation in every global system,
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还有那些影响这个行业的人:
政策制定者、金融人士、 科技供应商和公民社会。
03:28
from agriculture to retail,
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03:30
from shipping to trucking,
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这是我提到的“系统”的意思。
而我们的任务是促进 每个全球性的系统的变革,
03:33
from cement to steel,
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比如说农业、零售业、
03:37
so that collectively we move towards a zero-carbon future.
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海运、陆运、
03:41
So the question is,
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03:42
what are the underlying rules that we need to apply
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水泥和钢铁,
从而使我们集体过渡到 一个零碳排放的未来。
03:46
to lead to new zero-carbon patterns in the economy?
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那么问题来了,
03:51
Well, we’ve come up with three simple rules of radical collaboration
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我们需要应用哪些基本规则
来引领经济走向零碳排放的新模式呢?
03:56
that, if acted on by all actors in each system,
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对此,我们总结出能彻底改变 合作方式的三条简单规则;
04:00
will lead us to the zero-carbon future.
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04:03
Rule one is to harness ambition loops,
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如果每一个系统里的主体按规执行,
04:06
which are simply feedback loops driving ever-higher levels of ambition.
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零碳排放的未来就可以实现。
04:10
For example, when businesses commit to zero carbon
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第一条法则: 利用雄心循环,
04:13
and start investing and innovating,
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其实就是一种不断放大 志向目标的机制。
04:15
they embolden policymakers.
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04:19
And when policymakers set the regulatory framework
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打比方说,当有企业决心实行零碳排放,
并为这个目标投入资金和 开发创新的时候,
04:23
to drive towards zero carbon,
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这种现象会鞭策政策制定者。
04:25
they incentivize the private sector to innovate.
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04:28
That’s an ambition loop,
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当决策者制定了监管框架
04:29
and every relationship within each system
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04:31
is an opportunity to drive an ambition loop
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以实现零碳排放时,
04:34
towards new zero-carbon patterns in the system.
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他们会激励私企去进一步地创新。
这就是雄心循环,
04:38
Rule two is to set exponential goals.
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而每一个系统里的每一段关系
都是推进雄心循环的一次机会,
04:41
We know from history that every major industrial disruption
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让我们离零碳排放的新模式更近一步。
04:45
has followed the same shape,
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04:46
an exponential curve,
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第二条法则:设立指数型增长的目标。
04:48
with new technologies being adopted very slowly at first,
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我们从历史里总结出, 每一次主要的工业变革
04:51
but then a doubling rate kicking in consistently,
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都按着一个同样的形状发展
04:54
until the overall transformation happens very quickly in the end.
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一个指数曲线:
一开始,对新科技的采用非常缓慢,
04:58
It’s a movie we’ve seen many times before,
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05:00
whether from horses to cars,
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但会突然开始持续地成倍增长,
05:03
from valves to transistors or landlines to mobile phones.
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直到最后整个系统 迅速地完成彻底转变。
这种情节我们已经看了好多遍了,
05:08
And we understand how it works.
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比如从马发展到车,
05:10
Initially, the cost of technology is high, but as we learn through volume adoption,
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从阀门到晶体管, 或是从座机到手机。
05:15
the cost goes down and adoption goes up.
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05:17
Best example right now would be electric batteries
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我们明白这是种怎样的过程。
一开始,启用新科技的成本是很高的, 但随着新科技被越多地使用,
05:21
consistently coming down in cost
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05:23
by 20 percent a year for the last 10 years.
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成本会降低, 而使用率会因此进一步提升。
现在最好的例子就是蓄电池了。
05:27
And as the volume of adoption grows,
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05:29
especially with electric vehicle sales growing,
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蓄电池的价格持续降低,
过去十年里 每年都下降了20%。
05:32
we can be confident that the costs of that technology
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05:34
will continue to go down,
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随着价格的下降,使用率越来越高,
05:36
driving that exponential growth.
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考虑到电动汽车持续上升的销量,
05:38
We set these exponential goals
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05:40
because we believe in the power of human innovation.
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我们确信蓄电池的价格
还会继续降低,
05:44
Engineers love these goals, these stretch targets,
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引发指数型增长。
设立这些指数型目标,
05:47
it’s what they live for.
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05:48
The third rule is to follow shared action pathways.
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是因为我们相信人类科技创新 蕴含的力量。
05:53
And these are maps of the actions
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工程师们喜欢这些目标, 这些有挑战性的延伸目标,
05:55
which every action in the system has to take in the short term
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这就是他们生命里的乐趣。
第三条法则: 遵守共同的行动路径。
05:58
to make sure we’re on track to that exponential goal.
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这些是行动路径的布局
06:02
Actions that, if everyone in the system follows,
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系统中的每一个行动 都必须在短期内采取
06:04
means that we’ll be on track to the zero-carbon future.
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06:07
We normally set these for a relatively short period of time
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以确保我们在指数目标的轨道上。
06:10
for the next five years,
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如果系统里的每个人 都能按计划行动,
06:11
and then we’ll review and set the next phase of the journey.
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我们就能到达零碳排放的未来了。
06:15
By following these three simple rules of radical collaboration,
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我们通常会为这些行动 设置一个较短的时段,
一次五年计划,
06:19
we can drive the race to zero emissions.
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五年结束后,我们会再总结 并讨论下一阶段计划的制定。
06:23
And my team now, with hundreds of partners,
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只要我们都遵守这三条简单的法则,
06:25
have created a toolkit for these three goals
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06:27
for every sector of the global economy.
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人类就能实现零碳排放。
06:29
They’ve mapped the interconnected ambition loops,
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为了这个目标,我的团队 和数以百计的合作伙伴
06:32
they plotted exponential goals, and they’ve published shared pathways.
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设计了一个帮助达成 这三个目标的“工具箱”,
为全球经济中的各行各业。
06:37
Now, I said earlier on,
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其中计划了 环环相扣的雄心循环,
06:39
that adopting a systems lens can help us to be more optimistic,
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设立了指数型的目标, 也发布了共同的行动路径。
06:42
and I’m very optimistic.
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06:44
So let’s try to explain why by looking at the application of those three rules
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像我之前提到的那样,
06:47
to the shipping system that we looked at earlier.
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采用一个系统性的视角 能让我们变得更加的乐观,
06:50
First of all, we just remind ourselves
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因此我十分乐观。
06:52
of all of those interconnected ambition loops
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让我们来一起看看 这三条法则如何应用到
06:55
that we’re going to be harnessing.
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06:56
Second of all, we set our exponential goal.
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之前提过的全球海运系统上。
首先,我们只需要提醒自己
07:00
We’re at zero now,
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07:01
and we’ve got to get to 100 percent of all ships being zero-carbon by 2050.
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那些环环相扣的雄心循环,
我们将要利用他们。
然后,我们会设定指数型的目标。
07:06
When we plot the exponential curve,
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07:08
we see that we need to get to five percent by 2030.
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我们现在正处 0% 的位置,
我们需要在 2050 年之前 实现 100% 的船只零碳排放。
07:12
Now, that may not seem like much, but starting from zero,
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07:15
that’s a big change,
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当我们画出指数曲线的时候,
07:16
and it will drive the learning which drives down the cost,
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我们发现在 2030 年的 我们需要增长至 5%。
07:19
which means that in the ’30s we can really accelerate
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这看起来没多少, 但是从零开始,
07:22
and finish the job in the ’40s.
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这已经是个非常大的转变了,
07:25
So how are we doing against the shared action pathway,
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这个转变会促进人类对新技术的学习, 从而降低新技术的成本,
说明 2030 年起 我们可以迅速加速
07:30
which is the next of our tools?
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并在 2040-2050 年之间完成目标。
07:32
Well, it turns out we’re doing pretty well, actually.
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那么,针对共同的行动路径 我们正处什么位置呢?
07:35
The biggest container shipping company in the world, Maersk,
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07:38
has already committed to buying its first zero-carbon vessel in 2023.
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这是三大法则中的最后一个法则。
其实,我们现在做的已经挺不错了。
07:43
German utility Juniper has abandoned plans to invest in gas infrastructure
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世界上最大的集装箱海运公司马士基
已经承诺在2023年 购买第一艘零碳排放的轮船。
07:48
in the port of Wilhelmshaven
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07:50
and is instead investing in green amonia infrastructure.
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德国能源公司 Uniper 已经放弃了 他们在威廉港
07:54
Customers are coming together to form a cargo owners
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07:57
zero-emission vessels initiative,
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对天然气基础设施的投资,
转而投资于绿色的氨能基础设施。
07:59
sending a demand signal to container operators.
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货主们也集合起来发起了
08:04
And policymakers are shifting too,
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零碳排放船只倡议书,
08:06
the EU is extending its emissions trading scheme
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对运输员发出了要求零碳的信号。
08:09
to cover shipping emissions,
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08:11
which will put a price on carbon
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08:12
and incentivize investments in green fuel infrastructure.
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政策制定者也在转变,
欧盟正在将对贸易的排放要求延展到
08:16
Technology companies are coming together.
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08:18
Seven of them have formed the Green Hydrogen Catapult
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运输业上,
增加碳排放的成本,
08:21
to drive the cost of green hydrogen down to below two dollars a kilogram
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从而激励资金涌入 绿色能源的基建项目。
科技公司也联合在了一起。
08:25
in the next five years,
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08:26
crucial action on that pathway towards commercial viability
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其中七家公司已经成立了 “绿色氢能发射器”项目,
致力于将绿色氢能的成本降低至 每公斤两美元,
08:31
for zero-carbon vessels.
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08:33
And civil society is influencing the system as well.
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于接下来的五年内实现;
在共同行动路径中, 这是有助于提高船只零碳排放
08:37
In the Netherlands,
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08:39
over 10,000 citizens have taken shipping fuel manufacturer Shell to court,
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的商业可行性的重要举措。
市民社会也在影响这整个系统。
08:44
and the court has found that Shell must reduce its emissions
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在荷兰,
08:47
much more ambitiously, by 45 percent by 2030.
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超过一万市民把运输燃油巨头 壳牌告上了法庭。
08:52
So you can see that we now have radical collaboration in the shipping system,
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法庭判决表明, 壳牌必须更大幅地减少它的碳排放,
在2030年前需要减少 45%。
08:57
driving progress towards that exponential goal.
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09:00
And that's just one system in the world economy.
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所以你可以看到 我们在运输系统中有了激进的合作,
09:02
So the great news today
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09:04
is that now thousands of countries and companies,
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朝着指数级的目标前进。
09:08
of cities and investors,
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这只是全球经济中的一个系统。
09:09
of states and civil-society organizations
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今天,我有一个好消息,
09:12
are all implementing these three simple rules of radical collaboration
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成千的国家和公司、
城市和投资人、
09:18
and converging actions towards exponential goals.
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政府和民间组织
09:21
They’re not fully aligned yet, of course,
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都在积极实行 这三个颠覆性合作的简单法则,
09:23
but the more we converge, the lower the risk,
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这些力量汇集起来, 推动我们向指数型目标迈进。
09:27
the lower the costs and the faster that we can go.
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09:30
And so what might have seemed a real stretch or even impossible
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当然,他们还未完全达到步调一致,
但我们合作的越多, 风险越小,
09:33
just a few years ago,
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09:35
seems eminently achievable now.
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改革成本越低, 我们就能更快达成目标。
09:37
My favorite example of this phenomenon is the transition to electric vehicles.
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所以我们觉得有点牵强, 甚至是不可能的事情,
09:41
In 2016, the world’s leading forecasters of the energy system
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仅仅几年内
就已经看起来可行多了。
我对这个现象最喜欢的例子就是 向电动汽车的转变。
09:46
were telling us that we’ll still be buying combustion engine cars
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09:49
in the 2080s.
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2016 年, 世界领先的能源系统预测者
09:51
Five years later, in 2021, the vehicle manufacturers of the world
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告诉我们:一直到 2080 年
09:55
and the policymakers of the world
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09:57
are converging on the exponential goal of 100 percent zero-emission vehicles,
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我们都会继续买燃油车。
五年后,2021年 世界上所有的汽车制造商
10:02
the end of the combustion engine in the mid-2030s.
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和政策制定者
都在为 100% 零碳排放汽车的 指数目标努力,
10:06
In just five years,
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10:09
the future’s come forward by five decades.
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于2035年左右 使燃油车全面退出市场。
10:12
Now, as I said, this task of tackling the climate crisis
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10:15
and driving this transition can be really daunting.
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仅仅5年内,
我们与想要的未来靠近了50年。
10:18
But as always, we can turn to nature for inspiration
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现在,像我之前说的那样, 解决气候危机
10:22
on how following a few simple rules can lead to beautiful new patterns.
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和引导转变都是非常艰巨的任务。
但我们一如既往地可以 从大自然中汲取灵感:
10:28
Take a look at the stunning shapes
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10:30
that these flocks of starlings are forming in the sky,
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通过遵守一些简单的法则 创造出崭新的、美丽的规律。
10:34
by following their own three simple rules of radical flocking.
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看看那令人惊叹的
10:38
Rule one, pay attention to each other and don’t get too close,
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椋鸟群在空中飞行时的队形,
10:42
rule two, fly in the same general direction,
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他们也是遵守了鸟群的 三条简单法则。
10:45
and rule three, don’t fly too far away from each other.
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第一条, 关注伙伴,保持距离。
10:48
Pretty close to our own three simple rules of radical collaboration:
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第二条, 向相同方向飞行。
10:52
One, harness ambition loops, two, pursue exponential goals,
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第三条, 别跟自己的伙伴离得太远。
10:56
three, follow shared action pathways.
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这与人类的三条合作原则 非常相近的:
10:59
Now, I want to finish by reflecting on one final and crucial ambition loop,
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第一,利用雄心循环; 第二,设立指数型目标;
11:05
one that enables all of the others.
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第三,遵守共同的行为计划。
11:08
This is the feedback loop
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现在,作为总结,我想要探讨 一个终极的雄心循环,
11:09
between the stories that we tell of the path to the future
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这个循环可让 所有其他目标都得以实现。
11:15
and the future that we create
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这个反馈回路
11:17
and the actions that we take today.
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串联着我们如何描述 通往未来的路径,
11:21
We humans are storytellers, we're born storytellers,
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11:23
we tell stories to each other all the time.
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我们创造的未来,
以及我们现在的行动。
11:27
These stories of the future are our ambition loop.
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人类是讲故事的人, 我们天生就是讲故事的人,
11:30
So if we tell stories full of fear and failure,
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我们无时不刻都在 互相讲述故事。
11:34
then we will dispirit and disempower each other,
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这些关于未来的故事就是 雄心循环的一部分。
所以如果我们讲的故事里 充斥着恐惧和失败,
11:40
We’ll derail our collective efforts to build a better future.
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那我们就会让彼此垂头丧气,
11:44
But when we tell positive stories,
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11:47
we tap into the very best of the human spirit,
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11:49
we inspire collaboration and innovation.
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就可能让我们共同努力付之东流, 无法建设一个更好的未来。
11:53
So it’s crucial that we pay real attention
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但当我们讲述积极的故事时,
11:55
to the stories that we’re sharing about our pathway on the race to zero.
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我们就会激发人类灵魂 最好的那一面,
就会促进合作、鼓励创新。
12:00
We have to make sure we seek out
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所以,怎么去叙述 走向零碳排放的故事
12:02
and select positive examples of change
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是非常关键的。
12:05
along those pathways to the exponential goals
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12:08
and share them widely.
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我们需要确保
12:09
That’s how we build the most important and powerful ambition loop of all.
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在通往指数目标的路径上
寻找和选择一些积极的变革事例,
12:14
Because the stories that we tell the most often
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12:16
are the ones that will come true.
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并广泛地分享它们。
这就是我们构建最重要、 最强大的雄心循环的方法。
12:19
Thank you.
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因为我们讲得最频繁的故事
是会变成现实的。
谢谢大家。
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