请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: psjmz mz
校对人员: Wendy Wu
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
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让我从罗伊·阿马拉开始。
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new
technologies tend to be overestimated
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罗伊的观点是,
大多数新技术刚出现时,
00:20
in their impact to begin with,
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影响力往往被高估了,
00:22
and then they get underestimated
in the long term
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而在长时期内,它们的影响又被低估,
因为我们变得习惯了。
00:25
because we get used to them.
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00:26
These really are days
of miracle and wonder.
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这真是充满奇迹和想象的日子。
00:29
You remember that wonderful
song by Paul Simon?
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你还记得保罗·西蒙的
那首美妙的歌吗?
00:32
There were two lines in it.
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里面有两行歌词。
00:33
So what was it that was considered
miraculous back then?
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当时人们认为什么是奇迹呢?
00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
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放慢速度——慢动作——
00:41
and the long-distance call.
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还有打长途电话。
00:43
Because, of course, you used
to get interrupted by operators
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因为,你显然曾被接线员打断过,
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling.
Do you want to hang up?"
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她会告诉你,“长途电话喔,
你想要挂断吗?”
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling
all over the world.
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而今天我们习惯了在全球范围
都可以随时连线。
00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
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类似的事情也发生在
00:55
with reading and programming life.
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生命信息阅读和编程领域。
00:58
But before I unpack that,
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但在我展开前,
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
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让我们来聊聊望远镜。
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated
originally in their impact.
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望远镜起初的影响被高估了。
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
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这是伽利略早期的模型之一。
01:12
People thought it was just
going to ruin all religion.
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人们认为这会毁了所有的宗教。
01:15
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:18
So we're not paying that much
attention to telescopes.
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所以人们并没有
花什么心思研究望远镜。
01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched
10 years ago, as you just heard,
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不过,你当然也听说了,
10多年前发射的望远镜,
01:26
could take this Volkswagen,
fly it to the moon,
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可以带着这台大众轿车飞到月球上,
01:29
and you could see the lights
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
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你可以看到这辆大众汽车的灯
在月球上亮了起来。
01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power
that allowed you to see
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这种程度的分辨率可以让你看到
01:40
little specks of dust
floating around distant suns.
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漂浮在遥远太阳周围的小尘埃。
01:44
Imagine for a second that this
was a sun a billion light years away,
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想象一下,这是10亿光年之外的太阳,
01:48
and you had a little speck of dust
that came in front of it.
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在它前面有一小点灰尘。
01:51
That's what detecting
an exoplanet is like.
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这就是探测系外行星的感觉。
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes
that are now being launched
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很酷的事情在于,如今发射的望远镜
02:00
would allow you to see
a single candle lit on the moon.
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可以让你看到月球上点亮的一根蜡烛。
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
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如果你用盘子把它分开,
02:07
you could see two candles
separately at that distance.
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你可以在那个距离看到两根单独的蜡烛。
02:11
And that's the kind
of resolution that you need
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这就是你开始对太阳周围的
02:13
to begin to image
that little speck of dust
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那一点小尘埃进行成像,
02:16
as it comes around the sun
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去看看它是不是蓝绿色
02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
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所需要的特征。
02:21
And if it does have
a blue-green signature,
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如果它确实有蓝绿信号,
这就意味着生命在宇宙中普遍存在。
02:23
it means that life
is common in the universe.
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02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green
signature on a distant planet,
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你第一次在遥远的星球上
看到蓝绿色的标志,
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
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这意味着那里有光合作用,
02:31
there's water there,
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那里有水,
你看到唯一一个除地球外
有光合作用的行星的
02:33
and the chances that you saw
the only other planet with photosynthesis
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02:36
are about zero.
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几率几乎是零。
02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
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这是一个划时代的事件。
02:41
There's a before and after
we were alone in the universe:
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这是我们在宇宙中是否孤独的分界线:
02:44
forget about the discovery
of whatever continent.
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别去想什么发现新大陆了。
02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
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思考一下这个问题,
02:50
we're now beginning
to be able to image most of the universe.
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我们现在开始能够描绘大部分的宇宙。
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
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这真是充满奇迹和想象的时代。
02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
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我们却有点视为理所当然。
02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
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类似的事情正发生在生命领域。
03:01
So we're hearing about life
in these little bits and pieces.
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我们不断听到关于生命的碎片信息。
03:04
We hear about CRISPR,
and we hear about this technology,
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我们听说过CRISPR,听说过这项技术,
听说过那项技术。
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
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03:08
But the bottom line on life
is that life turns out to be code.
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但生命的本质是编码。
03:13
And life as code is a really
important concept because it means,
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生命就是编码
是个非常重要的概念,
03:17
just in the same way
as you can write a sentence
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因为这意味着,
就像你写一个句子一样,
03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
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可以用英文或法语或中文,
03:25
just in the same way
as you can copy a sentence,
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就像你可以复制一个句子一样,
03:28
just in the same way
as you can edit a sentence,
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就像你可以修改一个句子一样,
03:30
just in the same way
as you can print a sentence,
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就像你可以打印一个句子一样,
你可以对生命也这样做。
03:33
you're beginning to be able
to do that with life.
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03:37
It means that we're beginning
to learn how to read this language.
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这意味着我们正在开始学习
如何阅读这门语言。
03:40
And this, of course, is the language
that is used by this orange.
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当然,也是这个橙子使用的语言。
03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
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那这个橙子如何执行编码?
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes
like a computer does.
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它不像计算机那样用1,0来表示。
它呆在树上,有一天它会:
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
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03:51
plop!
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扑通!
03:52
And that means: execute.
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这意味着:执行。
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
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AATCAAG: 生根。
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
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TCGACC: 开枝。
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves.
AGC: make me some flowers.
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GAC: 生叶。
AGC: 开花。
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
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然后GCAA:结更多的橙子。
04:08
If I edit a sentence in English
on a word processor,
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如果我在文字处理软件上
用英文编写句子,
04:15
then what happens is you can go
from this word to that word.
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紧接着你就可以从这个词到那个词。
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
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如果我在这个橙子中编辑东西,
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR
or something else that you've heard of,
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放入GCAAC,使用CRISPR
或其他你听过的技术,
04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
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然后这个橙子变成了柠檬,
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
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或者变成一个葡萄柚,
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
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或者变成橘子。
04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
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如果我编辑千分之一的代码,
04:37
you become the person
sitting next to you today.
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你就会变成今天坐在你旁边的人。
04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
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多用心看看你要坐在哪里。
04:42
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:45
What's happening on this stuff
is it was really expensive to begin with.
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这项技术在初始阶段成本非常高。
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
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有点像长途电话诞生的初期。
04:51
But the cost of this is dropping
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
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但成本下降的速度比
摩尔定律快50%。
04:55
The first $200 full genome
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
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Veritas 昨天宣布了首个
200美元全基因组计划。
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
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当你看这些系统的时候,
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter,
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
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它无关紧要,它无关紧要,
它无关紧要,然后它变得紧要了。
05:06
So let me just give you
the map view of this stuff.
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我想给你看看这玩意儿
的地图预览模式。
05:10
This is a big discovery.
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这是一个大发现。
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
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有23条染色体。
05:15
Cool.
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真酷。
05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version,
but instead of using a telescope,
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现在让我们启动望远镜视角,
不过用的不是望远镜,
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
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而是通过显微镜放大看看
05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
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这些染色体中较低级别的
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
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Y染色体。
05:28
It's a third the size of the X.
It's recessive and mutant.
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它的大小是X染色体的1/3,
是隐性和突变的。
05:32
But hey,
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但是呢,
05:34
just a male.
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只是个男性罢了。
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
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继续来看,
05:39
here's kind of a country view
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这有点像一个国家视图,
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
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以400个碱基对的分辨率来看,
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550,
and then you zoom in to 850,
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然后你放大到500对,再到850对,
05:48
and you can begin to identify
more and more genes as you zoom in.
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随着放大,你开始能
识别出越来越多的基因。
05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
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然后你放大到州级分辨率,
05:55
and you can begin to tell
who's got leukemia,
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你开始能说出谁得了白血病,
05:59
how did they get leukemia,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
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他们是怎么得的白血病,
得了哪种白血病,
06:02
what shifted from what place
to what place.
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从何处被移动到何处。
06:05
And then you zoom in
to the Google street view level.
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然后你放大到谷歌街景的级别。
06:09
So this is what happens
if you have colorectal cancer
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这就是你从某个结肠直肠癌病人身上
06:12
for a very specific patient
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
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以字母分辨率级别,看到的情况。
06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff
is we're gathering information
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所以我们正在收集信息
06:21
and just generating
enormous amounts of information.
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和生成大量的信息。
06:23
This is one of the largest
databases on the planet
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这是地球上最大的数据库之一,
06:26
and it's growing faster
than we can build computers to store it.
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它的增长速度比我们制造电脑
存储它的速度还快。
06:32
You can create some incredible
maps with this stuff.
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你可以用这些东西
构建一些不可思议的地图。
06:35
You want to understand the plague
and why one plague is bubonic
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你想了解鼠疫和为什么
这种鼠疫是淋巴腺鼠疫,
06:38
and the other one
is a different kind of plague
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另一种是不同类型的鼠疫,
06:40
and the other one
is a different kind of plague?
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还有一种不同类型的鼠疫吗?
这就是鼠疫的地图。
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
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06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
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有些对人类绝对致命的,
06:46
some are not.
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有些则不会。
06:48
And note, by the way,
as you go to the bottom of this,
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顺便说一下,当你看到底部的时候,
注意把它与结核病对比观察。
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
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06:53
So this is the difference between
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
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这就是肺结核和各种瘟疫的区别,
06:57
and you can play detective
with this stuff,
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你可以用它来做侦探游戏,
06:59
because you can take
a very specific kind of cholera
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因为你可以选择一种影响了
07:02
that affected Haiti,
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海地的特殊霍乱,
07:04
and you can look at
which country it came from,
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你可以追踪看它来自哪个国家,
07:07
which region it came from,
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哪个地区,
07:09
and probably which soldier took that
from that African country to Haiti.
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以及可能是哪个士兵把它
从哪个非洲国家带到海地。
07:17
Zoom out.
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缩小。
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
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不仅仅只是放大。
07:21
This is one of the coolest maps
ever done by human beings.
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这是人类绘制的最酷的地图之一。
07:24
What they've done is taken
all the genetic information they have
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我们把获得的所有物种
07:27
about all the species,
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的基因信息
放在一棵生命树上,只用一页,
07:29
and they've put a tree of life
on a single page
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07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
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你可以放大和缩小。
07:34
So this is what came first,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
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这就是第一眼看到的,
它是如何多样,如何多分支,
07:38
how large is that genome,
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如此庞大的一个基因组,
07:39
on a single page.
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全都展现在一个页面上。
07:41
It's kind of the universe
of life on Earth,
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它相当于地球上生命的宇宙,
07:43
and it's being constantly
updated and completed.
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而且还在不断更新和完善。
07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
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当你看到这些信息的时候,
07:48
the really important change is
the old biology used to be reactive.
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真正重要的变化是
过去的生物学是被动的。
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists
that had microscopes,
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过去很多生物学家都有显微镜,
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses
and they were out observing animals.
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他们带着放大镜在外面观察动物。
07:58
The new biology is proactive.
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新的生物学是主动的。
08:01
You don't just observe stuff,
you make stuff.
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你不仅只是观察事物,你还创造事物。
08:05
And that's a really big change
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这是个重大的变化,
08:06
because it allows us
to do things like this.
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因为它让我们可以像这样做事情。
08:10
And I know you're really
excited by this picture.
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我知道你们对这张照片很兴奋。
(笑声)
08:13
(Laughter)
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08:14
It only took us four years
and 40 million dollars
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它只花了我们4年时间和4千万美元
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
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来拍下这张照片。
08:18
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:19
And what we did
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我们把完整的
08:21
is we took the full gene code
out of a cell --
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基因编码从细胞中提取出来——
08:24
not a gene, not two genes,
the full gene code out of a cell --
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不是一个基因,不是两个基因,
是把整个基因编码从细胞中提取出来,
08:30
built a completely new gene code,
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构建一个全新的基因编码,
08:32
inserted it into the cell,
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再注入到细胞中,
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell
execute that code
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找到方法让细胞执行编码
08:37
and built a completely new species.
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去创造一个全新的物种。
08:40
So this is the world's first
synthetic life form.
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所以这是世界上
第一个合成生命形式。
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
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那么有了这个技术后我们要做什么?
08:48
Well, this stuff is going
to change the world.
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它会改变世界。
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
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让我给你们三个短期的趋势,
08:53
in terms of how it's going
to change the world.
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来理解它将如何改变世界。
08:56
The first is we're going to see
a new industrial revolution.
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首先,我们将看到
一场新的工业革命。
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
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我是认真的,毫不夸张。
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland
and Germany and Britain
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就像瑞士,德国和英国
09:06
changed the world with machines
like the one you see in this lobby,
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用你们在这次会议的大厅里
看到的机器改变了世界一样,
09:11
created power --
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创造了力量——
09:13
in the same way CERN
is changing the world,
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也如同欧洲核子研究中心(CERN)
正在使用新的仪器
09:15
using new instruments
and our concept of the universe --
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和我们对宇宙的概念
改变世界一样——
09:20
programmable life forms
are also going to change the world
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可编码的生命形态也将改变世界,
09:23
because once you can program cells
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因为一旦你可以对细胞编码,
09:25
in the same way as you
program your computer chip,
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就像你对电脑芯片编程一样,
09:29
then you can make almost anything.
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然后你几乎可以做任何事情。
09:32
So your computer chip
can produce photographs,
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你的电脑芯片可以制作图像,
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
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音乐,电影,
09:37
can produce love letters,
can produce spreadsheets.
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可以写情书,制作电子表格。
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes
flying through there.
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这只是许多 1 和 0 在那里飞来飞去。
09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
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如果你能让 ATCG 在细胞中穿行,
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
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3054
软件就会创造自己的硬件,
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
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这意味着它扩展的速度非常快。
09:52
No matter what happens,
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不管发生什么,
09:54
if you leave your cell phone
by your bedside,
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2158
如果你把手机放在床边,
09:56
you will not have a billion
cell phones in the morning.
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2586
你早上醒来不会有数十亿部手机。
09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
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4913
但如果你对活的生物体这样做,
10:05
you can make this stuff
at a very large scale.
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你可以大规模复制这些生命。
10:09
One of the things you can do
is you can start producing
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到2025年,你其实可以
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
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2223
开始以商业规模
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
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2426
生产接近碳中性的燃料,
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
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我们正在与埃克森公司
就这个问题展开合作。
10:20
But you can also substitute
for agricultural lands.
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你也可以用它来取代农田。
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares
to make oils or to make proteins,
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不再需要100公顷的土地
来生产油或蛋白质,
10:28
you can make it in these vats
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相反,你可以在这些大桶里
10:29
at 10 or 100 times
the productivity per hectare.
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以每公顷10到100倍的产量生产。
10:33
Or you can store information,
or you can make all the world's vaccines
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3382
你也可以在这三个桶里
储存信息,或者制造世界上
10:36
in those three vats.
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1299
所有的疫苗。
10:39
Or you can store most of the information
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
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3949
或者你可以把CERN保存的大部分
信息存储在这三个容器中。
10:44
DNA is a really powerful
information storage device.
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DNA真是个非常强大的信息存储设备。
10:48
Second turn:
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第二:
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise
of theoretical biology.
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2784
你开始看到理论生物学的兴起。
10:54
So, medical school departments are one
of the most conservative places on earth.
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4202
医学院是世界上最保守的地方之一。
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar
to the way they taught anatomy
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3417
他们教解剖学的方法
11:01
100 years ago.
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1166
还像100年前一样。
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
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2024
“欢迎,学生们,这是你的尸体。”
11:06
One of the things medical schools are
not good at is creating new departments,
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3707
医学院不擅长开设新的院部,
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
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1749
这是为什么它很少见的原因。
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department
based on informatics, data, knowledge
216
672351
6498
萨克·科哈尼现在在哈佛医学院
创建了一个基于信息学、数据
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
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678873
1511
和知识的部门。
11:21
And in a sense,
what's beginning to happen is
218
681408
2177
在某种意义上,
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
219
683609
2482
生物学正在开始获得足够的数据,
11:26
that it can begin to follow
the steps of physics,
220
686115
2766
可以开始追随物理学发展的步伐,
11:28
which used to be observational physics
221
688905
3388
物理学曾经只包括观测物理
11:32
and experimental physicists,
222
692317
1971
和实验物理,
11:34
and then started creating
theoretical biology.
223
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2162
然后才开始创建理论生物学。
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
224
696498
2004
这就是你们刚开始看到的,
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
698526
1980
因为你有如此之多的医疗记录,
11:40
because you have
so much data about people:
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2032
因为你有关于人的如此多的数据:
11:42
you've got their genomes,
you've got their viromes,
227
702586
2410
有他们的基因组,有他们的病毒体,
有他们的微生物群。
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
228
705020
1494
11:46
And as this information stacks,
229
706538
1981
随着这些信息累加,
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
230
708543
2063
你可以开始做预测。
11:52
The third thing that's happening
is this is coming to the consumer.
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3255
第三件发生的事情是,
这一切正在走向消费者。
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
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4156
你也可以测序你的基因。
12:01
And this is beginning to create
companies like 23andMe,
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2728
这也导致了像23andMe
这样的公司的诞生,
12:04
and companies like 23andMe
are going to be giving you
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2478
这样的公司会给你
12:06
more and more and more data,
235
726952
1352
越来越多的数据,
12:08
not just about your relatives,
236
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1544
不仅关于你的亲戚,
12:10
but about you and your body,
237
730562
1360
也关于你和你自己的身体,
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
238
731946
1531
它还会进行比较,
12:13
and it's going
to compare stuff across time,
239
733501
2093
可以跨时间进行比较,
将会形成非常大型的数据库。
12:15
and these are going to become
very large databases.
240
735618
2607
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect
a series of other businesses
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738249
2962
但这也将开始以
不可预期的方式影响
12:21
in unexpected ways.
242
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1537
一系列其他商业。
12:23
Normally, when you advertise something,
you really don't want the consumer
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743802
3751
通常情况下,当你做广告的时候,
你真的不希望消费者
12:27
to take your advertisement
into the bathroom to pee on.
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4567
在你的广告宣传页上小便。
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
245
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2055
当然,除非你是宜家。
12:37
Because when you rip this
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
246
757381
2906
因为当你从杂志上撕下这页,
尿在上面的时候,
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
247
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2069
如果你怀孕了,它会变成蓝色。
12:42
(Laughter)
248
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1213
(笑声)
12:44
And they'll give you
a discount on your crib.
249
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3873
他们会给你的婴儿床打折。
(笑声)
12:48
(Laughter)
250
768111
1158
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
251
769293
2015
对吧?所以当我说消费者被赋能时,
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
252
771332
2739
这已经超越了生物技术,
12:54
I actually really mean that.
253
774095
1819
我是说真的。
12:58
We're now beginning to produce,
at Synthetic Genomics,
254
778273
3365
在Synthetic Genomics(合成基因公司),
我们现在开始生产
13:02
desktop printers
255
782540
1471
台式打印机,
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
785228
3530
可以让你设计细胞,
13:08
print a cell,
257
788782
1167
打印细胞,
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
258
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1845
执行细胞中的编码。
13:12
We can now print vaccines
259
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2103
我们现在可以实时打印疫苗,
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
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2247
就在飞机起飞时开始,
13:17
before it lands.
261
797223
1190
在着陆前完成。
13:19
We're shipping 78
of these machines this year.
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2572
我们今年将售出78台这种机器。
13:24
This is not theoretical biology.
This is printing biology.
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4473
这不是理论生物学,
这是打印生物学。
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
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810182
2196
让我再谈谈两个长期趋势,
13:33
that are coming at you
over a longer time period.
265
813374
3326
是将会在更长的时间内
发生在你身上的。
13:37
The first one is, we're starting
to redesign species.
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2656
第一个是,我们开始重新设计物种。
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
267
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1777
你已听说过了,对吧?
13:42
We're redesigning trees.
We're redesigning flowers.
268
822856
2681
我们重新设计了树木,
我们重新设计了鲜花。
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
269
825561
2293
我们重新设计了酸奶,
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
270
828513
2030
奶酪,随便你要什么。
13:51
And that, of course,
brings up the interesting question:
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2650
当然,这引出了一个有趣的问题:
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
272
834884
2336
我们要怎样以及何时重新设计人类?
13:59
And a lot of us think,
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
273
839566
3557
我们很多人会想,“哦,不,
我们从来不想重新设计人类。”
14:04
Unless, of course, if your child
has a Huntington's gene
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2715
当然,除非你的孩子
有亨廷顿氏舞蹈症基因
14:06
and is condemned to death.
275
846886
1389
并且被医生判了死刑。
14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on
a cystic fibrosis gene,
276
849172
3363
或者,除非你遗传了
囊性纤维化基因,
14:12
in which case, you don't just want
to redesign yourself,
277
852559
2690
在这种情况下,
你不只是想重新设计自己,
14:15
you want to redesign your children
and their children.
278
855273
2539
你还想重新设计
你的孩子和他们的孩子。
14:18
And these are complicated debates
and they're going to happen in real time.
279
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3645
这些都是复杂的争论,
它们当下正在发生着。
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
280
862839
1951
我给你们一个最近的例子。
14:25
One of the debates going on
at the National Academies today
281
865531
3072
今天在国家科学院进行的
一场辩论是关于
14:29
is you have the power to put
a gene drive into mosquitoes
282
869896
4702
如果你有能力把基因注入蚊子体内,
14:34
so that you will kill
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
283
874622
2984
这样你就可以杀死所有
携带疟疾的蚊子。
14:39
Now, some people say,
284
879547
2560
有人会说,
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment
in an extreme way, don't do it."
285
882964
3465
“这将会以一种极端的方式
影响环境,不要这样做。”
14:47
Other people say,
286
887326
1155
其他人则说,
14:48
"This is one of the things
that's killing millions of people yearly.
287
888505
3227
“这是个每年造成数百万人死亡的事情,
14:51
Who are you to tell me
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
288
891756
3548
你凭什么对我说我不能
拯救我们国家的孩子们?”
14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
289
897183
1853
为什么这场争论如此复杂?
因为一旦你在巴西,
或在佛罗里达州南部
14:59
Because as soon as you
let this loose in Brazil
290
899060
2881
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
291
901965
1423
放松管制——
15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
292
903412
1541
蚊子可不管什么墙。
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
293
904977
2301
当你把基因驱动放到空中时,
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
294
907302
1907
你是在为世界做决定。
15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
295
914145
2095
这个了不起的人获得了诺贝尔奖,
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
296
917103
1640
在获得诺贝尔奖后,
15:18
he's been worrying about
297
918767
1255
他一直在操心
15:21
how did life get started on this planet
298
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2103
生命是如何在这个星球上诞生的,
15:23
and how likely is it
that it's in other places?
299
923658
2281
在其他地方存在的可能性有多大?
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around
to this graduate students
300
927097
3202
所以他一直想招一些研究生,
15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
301
930323
1718
对他们说,
15:32
"Build me life but don't use
any modern chemicals or instruments.
302
932864
3322
“去创造生物,但别使用任何
现代化学品或仪器。
15:36
Build me stuff that was here
three billion years ago.
303
936210
2665
给我造些三十亿年前出现的东西。
15:38
You can't use lasers.
You can't use this. You can't use that."
304
938899
3156
你不能用激光,你不能用这个,
你不能用那个。”
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built
about three weeks ago.
305
944330
3245
他给了我一小瓶他三周前做的东西。
15:48
What has he built?
306
948639
1179
他做的是什么?
15:49
He's built basically what looked like
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
307
949842
4025
看起来就像是用脂质做的肥皂泡。
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
308
953891
2566
他造出了RNA的前体。
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA
be absorbed by the cell
309
957291
3752
他让RNA的前体被细胞吸收,
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
310
962194
1883
然后让细胞分裂。
16:06
We may not be that far --
311
966031
1957
这一天可能不会太远——
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
312
969687
3117
10年后,也许20年后——
16:12
from generating life from scratch
313
972828
1970
我们就能从原始群落中
16:16
out of proto-communities.
314
976285
1803
造出生命。
16:19
Second long-term trend:
315
979512
1646
第二个长期趋势:
16:22
we've been living and are living
through the digital age --
316
982273
3526
我们正在经历数字时代——
16:25
we're starting to live through
the age of the genome
317
985823
2519
开始经历基因时代,
16:28
and biology and CRISPR
and synthetic biology --
318
988366
3615
生物学,CRISPR和
合成生物学时代——
16:32
and all of that is going to merge
into the age of the brain.
319
992870
2907
所有这些都将融入大脑时代。
16:36
So we're getting to the point where
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
320
996743
3981
所以我们将会到达可以重建
我们大部分身体器官的时期,
16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone
or burn your skin, it regrows.
321
1000748
3656
就像你折断骨头或烧伤皮肤,
它会重新生长一样。
16:44
We're beginning to learn
how to regrow our tracheas
322
1004428
2668
我们开始学习如何再生
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
323
1007120
1864
气管或膀胱。
这两种方法都已被植入人体。
16:49
Both of those have been
implanted in humans.
324
1009008
2306
16:51
Tony Atala is working on
32 different organs.
325
1011338
2728
托尼·阿塔拉正在研究32种不同的器官。
16:55
But the core is going to be this,
326
1015487
1890
但大脑才是核心,
16:57
because this is you
and the rest is just packaging.
327
1017401
3054
因为这才是你,剩下的只是包装。
17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond
120, 130, 140 years
328
1022011
3547
没人能够活过120,130,140岁,
17:05
unless if we fix this.
329
1025582
1735
除非我们的身体能自我修复。
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
330
1028084
2066
这是最有趣的挑战。
这是下一个前沿,伴随着:
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
331
1030174
2111
17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
332
1032309
2347
“宇宙中生命有多么普遍?”
17:14
"Where did we come from?"
333
1034680
1806
“我们来自哪里?”
17:16
and questions like that.
334
1036510
1634
和诸如此类的问题。
17:20
Let me end this with
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
335
1040031
3190
让我引用一句可能是爱因斯坦
说过的话来结束这次演讲。
17:23
[You can live as if
everything is a miracle,
336
1043697
2219
【你可以把一切当奇迹来活,
17:25
or you can live as if
nothing is a miracle.]
337
1045940
2272
你也可以无视任何奇迹。】
17:28
It's your choice.
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这是你的选择。
17:30
You can focus on the bad,
you can focus on the scary,
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你可以关注坏事情,
你可以关注可怕的事情,
17:33
and certainly there's
a lot of scary out there.
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当然有很多可怕的事情。
17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
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但用你大脑的10%,或者20%,
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
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或者30%来专注这个问题。
17:43
But just remember,
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但记住,
17:45
we really are living in an age
of miracle and wonder.
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我们生活在一个充满
奇迹,千变万化的时代。
17:48
We're lucky to be alive today.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
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我们有幸活在如今的时代,
有幸看到这些东西。
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact
with folks like the folks
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我们很幸运能够与像在这个房间里
17:54
who are building
all the stuff in this room.
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打造了这些东西的人们互动。
17:57
So thank you to all of you,
for all you do.
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感谢你们所有人,
感谢你们所做的一切。
18:01
(Applause)
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3696
(鼓掌)
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