The age of genetic wonder | Juan Enriquez

125,129 views ・ 2019-03-01

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Wendy Wu
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
0
13134
2390
让我从罗伊·阿马拉开始。
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new technologies tend to be overestimated
1
16350
4211
罗伊的观点是, 大多数新技术刚出现时,
00:20
in their impact to begin with,
2
20585
2068
影响力往往被高估了,
00:22
and then they get underestimated in the long term
3
22677
2402
而在长时期内,它们的影响又被低估,
因为我们变得习惯了。
00:25
because we get used to them.
4
25103
1364
00:26
These really are days of miracle and wonder.
5
26491
2196
这真是充满奇迹和想象的日子。
00:29
You remember that wonderful song by Paul Simon?
6
29433
2381
你还记得保罗·西蒙的 那首美妙的歌吗?
00:32
There were two lines in it.
7
32365
1338
里面有两行歌词。
00:33
So what was it that was considered miraculous back then?
8
33727
3687
当时人们认为什么是奇迹呢?
00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
9
38393
2072
放慢速度——慢动作——
00:41
and the long-distance call.
10
41371
1728
还有打长途电话。
00:43
Because, of course, you used to get interrupted by operators
11
43941
2859
因为,你显然曾被接线员打断过,
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling. Do you want to hang up?"
12
46824
2997
她会告诉你,“长途电话喔, 你想要挂断吗?”
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling all over the world.
13
49845
2702
而今天我们习惯了在全球范围 都可以随时连线。
00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
14
53040
2630
类似的事情也发生在
00:55
with reading and programming life.
15
55694
2072
生命信息阅读和编程领域。
00:58
But before I unpack that,
16
58636
1728
但在我展开前,
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
17
61069
2684
让我们来聊聊望远镜。
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated originally in their impact.
18
64798
4311
望远镜起初的影响被高估了。
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
19
69133
2169
这是伽利略早期的模型之一。
01:12
People thought it was just going to ruin all religion.
20
72090
3359
人们认为这会毁了所有的宗教。
01:15
(Laughter)
21
75473
1150
(笑声)
01:18
So we're not paying that much attention to telescopes.
22
78862
2714
所以人们并没有 花什么心思研究望远镜。
01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched 10 years ago, as you just heard,
23
82628
4082
不过,你当然也听说了, 10多年前发射的望远镜,
01:26
could take this Volkswagen, fly it to the moon,
24
86734
2991
可以带着这台大众轿车飞到月球上,
01:29
and you could see the lights on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
25
89749
5856
你可以看到这辆大众汽车的灯 在月球上亮了起来。
01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power that allowed you to see
26
96624
3262
这种程度的分辨率可以让你看到
01:40
little specks of dust floating around distant suns.
27
100592
3604
漂浮在遥远太阳周围的小尘埃。
01:44
Imagine for a second that this was a sun a billion light years away,
28
104220
3464
想象一下,这是10亿光年之外的太阳,
01:48
and you had a little speck of dust that came in front of it.
29
108310
2927
在它前面有一小点灰尘。
01:51
That's what detecting an exoplanet is like.
30
111566
2501
这就是探测系外行星的感觉。
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes that are now being launched
31
115268
3790
很酷的事情在于,如今发射的望远镜
02:00
would allow you to see a single candle lit on the moon.
32
120138
3005
可以让你看到月球上点亮的一根蜡烛。
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
33
124279
2828
如果你用盘子把它分开,
02:07
you could see two candles separately at that distance.
34
127131
2794
你可以在那个距离看到两根单独的蜡烛。
02:11
And that's the kind of resolution that you need
35
131124
2813
这就是你开始对太阳周围的
02:13
to begin to image that little speck of dust
36
133961
2468
那一点小尘埃进行成像,
02:16
as it comes around the sun
37
136453
1286
去看看它是不是蓝绿色
02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
38
137763
2049
所需要的特征。
02:21
And if it does have a blue-green signature,
39
141120
2071
如果它确实有蓝绿信号,
这就意味着生命在宇宙中普遍存在。
02:23
it means that life is common in the universe.
40
143215
2220
02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green signature on a distant planet,
41
145459
4196
你第一次在遥远的星球上 看到蓝绿色的标志,
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
42
149679
1993
这意味着那里有光合作用,
02:31
there's water there,
43
151696
1281
那里有水,
你看到唯一一个除地球外 有光合作用的行星的
02:33
and the chances that you saw the only other planet with photosynthesis
44
153001
3872
02:36
are about zero.
45
156897
1363
几率几乎是零。
02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
46
159108
1896
这是一个划时代的事件。
02:41
There's a before and after we were alone in the universe:
47
161670
2752
这是我们在宇宙中是否孤独的分界线:
02:44
forget about the discovery of whatever continent.
48
164446
2470
别去想什么发现新大陆了。
02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
49
168751
1580
思考一下这个问题,
02:50
we're now beginning to be able to image most of the universe.
50
170355
2902
我们现在开始能够描绘大部分的宇宙。
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
51
173281
2254
这真是充满奇迹和想象的时代。
02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
52
175559
2352
我们却有点视为理所当然。
02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
53
179562
1915
类似的事情正发生在生命领域。
03:01
So we're hearing about life in these little bits and pieces.
54
181501
3038
我们不断听到关于生命的碎片信息。
03:04
We hear about CRISPR, and we hear about this technology,
55
184563
2658
我们听说过CRISPR,听说过这项技术,
听说过那项技术。
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
56
187245
1666
03:08
But the bottom line on life is that life turns out to be code.
57
188935
3388
但生命的本质是编码。
03:13
And life as code is a really important concept because it means,
58
193900
3950
生命就是编码 是个非常重要的概念,
03:17
just in the same way as you can write a sentence
59
197874
3210
因为这意味着, 就像你写一个句子一样,
03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
60
201108
3118
可以用英文或法语或中文,
03:25
just in the same way as you can copy a sentence,
61
205146
2906
就像你可以复制一个句子一样,
03:28
just in the same way as you can edit a sentence,
62
208076
2526
就像你可以修改一个句子一样,
03:30
just in the same way as you can print a sentence,
63
210626
2350
就像你可以打印一个句子一样,
你可以对生命也这样做。
03:33
you're beginning to be able to do that with life.
64
213000
2719
03:37
It means that we're beginning to learn how to read this language.
65
217237
3511
这意味着我们正在开始学习 如何阅读这门语言。
03:40
And this, of course, is the language that is used by this orange.
66
220772
3236
当然,也是这个橙子使用的语言。
03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
67
224702
1796
那这个橙子如何执行编码?
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes like a computer does.
68
226522
2708
它不像计算机那样用1,0来表示。
它呆在树上,有一天它会:
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
69
229254
1885
03:51
plop!
70
231163
1150
扑通!
03:52
And that means: execute.
71
232819
1805
这意味着:执行。
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
72
235149
3272
AATCAAG: 生根。
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
73
239057
2502
TCGACC: 开枝。
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves. AGC: make me some flowers.
74
241583
3438
GAC: 生叶。 AGC: 开花。
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
75
245045
2857
然后GCAA:结更多的橙子。
04:08
If I edit a sentence in English on a word processor,
76
248984
4073
如果我在文字处理软件上 用英文编写句子,
04:15
then what happens is you can go from this word to that word.
77
255153
3441
紧接着你就可以从这个词到那个词。
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
78
260134
2136
如果我在这个橙子中编辑东西,
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR or something else that you've heard of,
79
262294
4983
放入GCAAC,使用CRISPR 或其他你听过的技术,
04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
80
268261
1797
然后这个橙子变成了柠檬,
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
81
270957
1548
或者变成一个葡萄柚,
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
82
272529
1657
或者变成橘子。
04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
83
275102
2018
如果我编辑千分之一的代码,
04:37
you become the person sitting next to you today.
84
277144
2360
你就会变成今天坐在你旁边的人。
04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
85
280757
1520
多用心看看你要坐在哪里。
04:42
(Laughter)
86
282301
1189
(笑声)
04:45
What's happening on this stuff is it was really expensive to begin with.
87
285014
3475
这项技术在初始阶段成本非常高。
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
88
288513
1695
有点像长途电话诞生的初期。
04:51
But the cost of this is dropping 50 percent faster than Moore's law.
89
291399
3606
但成本下降的速度比 摩尔定律快50%。
04:55
The first $200 full genome was announced yesterday by Veritas.
90
295909
3832
Veritas 昨天宣布了首个 200美元全基因组计划。
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
91
300494
2130
当你看这些系统的时候,
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, and then it does.
92
302648
3802
它无关紧要,它无关紧要, 它无关紧要,然后它变得紧要了。
05:06
So let me just give you the map view of this stuff.
93
306474
3405
我想给你看看这玩意儿 的地图预览模式。
05:10
This is a big discovery.
94
310973
2559
这是一个大发现。
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
95
313556
1923
有23条染色体。
05:15
Cool.
96
315503
1228
真酷。
05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version, but instead of using a telescope,
97
317287
3679
现在让我们启动望远镜视角, 不过用的不是望远镜,
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
98
320990
2320
而是通过显微镜放大看看
05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
99
323334
2072
这些染色体中较低级别的
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
100
325430
1621
Y染色体。
05:28
It's a third the size of the X. It's recessive and mutant.
101
328432
3014
它的大小是X染色体的1/3, 是隐性和突变的。
05:32
But hey,
102
332443
1151
但是呢,
05:34
just a male.
103
334262
1219
只是个男性罢了。
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
104
336914
2280
继续来看,
05:39
here's kind of a country view
105
339218
3450
这有点像一个国家视图,
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
106
342692
2204
以400个碱基对的分辨率来看,
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550, and then you zoom in to 850,
107
344920
3419
然后你放大到500对,再到850对,
05:48
and you can begin to identify more and more genes as you zoom in.
108
348363
3285
随着放大,你开始能 识别出越来越多的基因。
05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
109
352249
2304
然后你放大到州级分辨率,
05:55
and you can begin to tell who's got leukemia,
110
355473
2804
你开始能说出谁得了白血病,
05:59
how did they get leukemia, what kind of leukemia do they have,
111
359543
3024
他们是怎么得的白血病, 得了哪种白血病,
06:02
what shifted from what place to what place.
112
362591
2064
从何处被移动到何处。
06:05
And then you zoom in to the Google street view level.
113
365330
2858
然后你放大到谷歌街景的级别。
06:09
So this is what happens if you have colorectal cancer
114
369387
2673
这就是你从某个结肠直肠癌病人身上
06:12
for a very specific patient on the letter-by-letter resolution.
115
372084
4207
以字母分辨率级别,看到的情况。
06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff is we're gathering information
116
378148
3110
所以我们正在收集信息
06:21
and just generating enormous amounts of information.
117
381282
2516
和生成大量的信息。
06:23
This is one of the largest databases on the planet
118
383822
2874
这是地球上最大的数据库之一,
06:26
and it's growing faster than we can build computers to store it.
119
386720
3872
它的增长速度比我们制造电脑 存储它的速度还快。
06:32
You can create some incredible maps with this stuff.
120
392063
2466
你可以用这些东西 构建一些不可思议的地图。
06:35
You want to understand the plague and why one plague is bubonic
121
395292
2971
你想了解鼠疫和为什么 这种鼠疫是淋巴腺鼠疫,
06:38
and the other one is a different kind of plague
122
398287
2224
另一种是不同类型的鼠疫,
06:40
and the other one is a different kind of plague?
123
400535
2310
还有一种不同类型的鼠疫吗?
这就是鼠疫的地图。
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
124
402869
1730
06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
125
405037
1820
有些对人类绝对致命的,
06:46
some are not.
126
406881
1185
有些则不会。
06:48
And note, by the way, as you go to the bottom of this,
127
408486
2596
顺便说一下,当你看到底部的时候,
注意把它与结核病对比观察。
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
128
411106
1753
06:53
So this is the difference between tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
129
413708
3629
这就是肺结核和各种瘟疫的区别,
06:57
and you can play detective with this stuff,
130
417361
2335
你可以用它来做侦探游戏,
06:59
because you can take a very specific kind of cholera
131
419720
2475
因为你可以选择一种影响了
07:02
that affected Haiti,
132
422219
1190
海地的特殊霍乱,
07:04
and you can look at which country it came from,
133
424377
2686
你可以追踪看它来自哪个国家,
07:07
which region it came from,
134
427087
1726
哪个地区,
07:09
and probably which soldier took that from that African country to Haiti.
135
429496
4742
以及可能是哪个士兵把它 从哪个非洲国家带到海地。
07:17
Zoom out.
136
437133
1512
缩小。
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
137
438669
1571
不仅仅只是放大。
07:21
This is one of the coolest maps ever done by human beings.
138
441042
2854
这是人类绘制的最酷的地图之一。
07:24
What they've done is taken all the genetic information they have
139
444446
3056
我们把获得的所有物种
07:27
about all the species,
140
447526
1481
的基因信息
放在一棵生命树上,只用一页,
07:29
and they've put a tree of life on a single page
141
449031
3430
07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
142
452485
1578
你可以放大和缩小。
07:34
So this is what came first, how did it diversify, how did it branch,
143
454484
3721
这就是第一眼看到的, 它是如何多样,如何多分支,
07:38
how large is that genome,
144
458229
1230
如此庞大的一个基因组,
07:39
on a single page.
145
459483
1197
全都展现在一个页面上。
07:41
It's kind of the universe of life on Earth,
146
461619
2063
它相当于地球上生命的宇宙,
07:43
and it's being constantly updated and completed.
147
463706
2449
而且还在不断更新和完善。
07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
148
466982
1859
当你看到这些信息的时候,
07:48
the really important change is the old biology used to be reactive.
149
468865
3351
真正重要的变化是 过去的生物学是被动的。
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists that had microscopes,
150
472240
2720
过去很多生物学家都有显微镜,
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses and they were out observing animals.
151
474984
3299
他们带着放大镜在外面观察动物。
07:58
The new biology is proactive.
152
478897
1869
新的生物学是主动的。
08:01
You don't just observe stuff, you make stuff.
153
481433
3019
你不仅只是观察事物,你还创造事物。
08:05
And that's a really big change
154
485135
1648
这是个重大的变化,
08:06
because it allows us to do things like this.
155
486807
2809
因为它让我们可以像这样做事情。
08:10
And I know you're really excited by this picture.
156
490559
2467
我知道你们对这张照片很兴奋。
(笑声)
08:13
(Laughter)
157
493050
1111
08:14
It only took us four years and 40 million dollars
158
494185
2374
它只花了我们4年时间和4千万美元
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
159
496583
1602
来拍下这张照片。
08:18
(Laughter)
160
498209
1230
(笑声)
08:19
And what we did
161
499463
1371
我们把完整的
08:21
is we took the full gene code out of a cell --
162
501586
3275
基因编码从细胞中提取出来——
08:24
not a gene, not two genes, the full gene code out of a cell --
163
504885
3911
不是一个基因,不是两个基因, 是把整个基因编码从细胞中提取出来,
08:30
built a completely new gene code,
164
510016
1840
构建一个全新的基因编码,
08:32
inserted it into the cell,
165
512825
1575
再注入到细胞中,
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell execute that code
166
514424
2932
找到方法让细胞执行编码
08:37
and built a completely new species.
167
517380
2254
去创造一个全新的物种。
08:40
So this is the world's first synthetic life form.
168
520884
2485
所以这是世界上 第一个合成生命形式。
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
169
525810
1895
那么有了这个技术后我们要做什么?
08:48
Well, this stuff is going to change the world.
170
528430
2204
它会改变世界。
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
171
531417
1939
让我给你们三个短期的趋势,
08:53
in terms of how it's going to change the world.
172
533380
2255
来理解它将如何改变世界。
08:56
The first is we're going to see a new industrial revolution.
173
536269
2921
首先,我们将看到 一场新的工业革命。
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
174
539674
1701
我是认真的,毫不夸张。
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland and Germany and Britain
175
541992
4491
就像瑞士,德国和英国
09:06
changed the world with machines like the one you see in this lobby,
176
546507
3658
用你们在这次会议的大厅里 看到的机器改变了世界一样,
09:11
created power --
177
551537
1196
创造了力量——
09:13
in the same way CERN is changing the world,
178
553273
2664
也如同欧洲核子研究中心(CERN) 正在使用新的仪器
09:15
using new instruments and our concept of the universe --
179
555961
3347
和我们对宇宙的概念 改变世界一样——
09:20
programmable life forms are also going to change the world
180
560060
2894
可编码的生命形态也将改变世界,
09:23
because once you can program cells
181
563810
1655
因为一旦你可以对细胞编码,
09:25
in the same way as you program your computer chip,
182
565489
2528
就像你对电脑芯片编程一样,
09:29
then you can make almost anything.
183
569736
1693
然后你几乎可以做任何事情。
09:32
So your computer chip can produce photographs,
184
572369
2779
你的电脑芯片可以制作图像,
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
185
575172
2073
音乐,电影,
09:37
can produce love letters, can produce spreadsheets.
186
577269
2413
可以写情书,制作电子表格。
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes flying through there.
187
579706
2244
这只是许多 1 和 0 在那里飞来飞去。
09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
188
582604
2605
如果你能让 ATCG 在细胞中穿行,
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
189
586123
3054
软件就会创造自己的硬件,
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
190
589201
2072
这意味着它扩展的速度非常快。
09:52
No matter what happens,
191
592487
1651
不管发生什么,
09:54
if you leave your cell phone by your bedside,
192
594162
2158
如果你把手机放在床边,
09:56
you will not have a billion cell phones in the morning.
193
596344
2586
你早上醒来不会有数十亿部手机。
09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
194
599489
4913
但如果你对活的生物体这样做,
10:05
you can make this stuff at a very large scale.
195
605222
2389
你可以大规模复制这些生命。
10:09
One of the things you can do is you can start producing
196
609390
2896
到2025年,你其实可以
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
197
612310
2223
开始以商业规模
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
198
614557
2426
生产接近碳中性的燃料,
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
199
618054
1761
我们正在与埃克森公司 就这个问题展开合作。
10:20
But you can also substitute for agricultural lands.
200
620870
2409
你也可以用它来取代农田。
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares to make oils or to make proteins,
201
623303
4751
不再需要100公顷的土地 来生产油或蛋白质,
10:28
you can make it in these vats
202
628078
1859
相反,你可以在这些大桶里
10:29
at 10 or 100 times the productivity per hectare.
203
629961
2868
以每公顷10到100倍的产量生产。
10:33
Or you can store information, or you can make all the world's vaccines
204
633488
3382
你也可以在这三个桶里 储存信息,或者制造世界上
10:36
in those three vats.
205
636894
1299
所有的疫苗。
10:39
Or you can store most of the information that's held at CERN in those three vats.
206
639276
3949
或者你可以把CERN保存的大部分 信息存储在这三个容器中。
10:44
DNA is a really powerful information storage device.
207
644350
3209
DNA真是个非常强大的信息存储设备。
10:48
Second turn:
208
648806
1588
第二:
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise of theoretical biology.
209
650418
2784
你开始看到理论生物学的兴起。
10:54
So, medical school departments are one of the most conservative places on earth.
210
654256
4202
医学院是世界上最保守的地方之一。
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar to the way they taught anatomy
211
658482
3417
他们教解剖学的方法
11:01
100 years ago.
212
661923
1166
还像100年前一样。
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
213
663113
2024
“欢迎,学生们,这是你的尸体。”
11:06
One of the things medical schools are not good at is creating new departments,
214
666149
3707
医学院不擅长开设新的院部,
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
215
669880
1749
这是为什么它很少见的原因。
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department based on informatics, data, knowledge
216
672351
6498
萨克·科哈尼现在在哈佛医学院 创建了一个基于信息学、数据
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
217
678873
1511
和知识的部门。
11:21
And in a sense, what's beginning to happen is
218
681408
2177
在某种意义上,
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
219
683609
2482
生物学正在开始获得足够的数据,
11:26
that it can begin to follow the steps of physics,
220
686115
2766
可以开始追随物理学发展的步伐,
11:28
which used to be observational physics
221
688905
3388
物理学曾经只包括观测物理
11:32
and experimental physicists,
222
692317
1971
和实验物理,
11:34
and then started creating theoretical biology.
223
694312
2162
然后才开始创建理论生物学。
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
224
696498
2004
这就是你们刚开始看到的,
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
698526
1980
因为你有如此之多的医疗记录,
11:40
because you have so much data about people:
226
700530
2032
因为你有关于人的如此多的数据:
11:42
you've got their genomes, you've got their viromes,
227
702586
2410
有他们的基因组,有他们的病毒体,
有他们的微生物群。
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
228
705020
1494
11:46
And as this information stacks,
229
706538
1981
随着这些信息累加,
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
230
708543
2063
你可以开始做预测。
11:52
The third thing that's happening is this is coming to the consumer.
231
712149
3255
第三件发生的事情是, 这一切正在走向消费者。
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
232
716629
4156
你也可以测序你的基因。
12:01
And this is beginning to create companies like 23andMe,
233
721698
2728
这也导致了像23andMe 这样的公司的诞生,
12:04
and companies like 23andMe are going to be giving you
234
724450
2478
这样的公司会给你
12:06
more and more and more data,
235
726952
1352
越来越多的数据,
12:08
not just about your relatives,
236
728328
1544
不仅关于你的亲戚,
12:10
but about you and your body,
237
730562
1360
也关于你和你自己的身体,
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
238
731946
1531
它还会进行比较,
12:13
and it's going to compare stuff across time,
239
733501
2093
可以跨时间进行比较,
将会形成非常大型的数据库。
12:15
and these are going to become very large databases.
240
735618
2607
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect a series of other businesses
241
738249
2962
但这也将开始以 不可预期的方式影响
12:21
in unexpected ways.
242
741235
1537
一系列其他商业。
12:23
Normally, when you advertise something, you really don't want the consumer
243
743802
3751
通常情况下,当你做广告的时候, 你真的不希望消费者
12:27
to take your advertisement into the bathroom to pee on.
244
747577
4567
在你的广告宣传页上小便。
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
245
753993
2055
当然,除非你是宜家。
12:37
Because when you rip this out of a magazine and you pee on it,
246
757381
2906
因为当你从杂志上撕下这页, 尿在上面的时候,
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
247
760311
2069
如果你怀孕了,它会变成蓝色。
12:42
(Laughter)
248
762404
1213
(笑声)
12:44
And they'll give you a discount on your crib.
249
764214
3873
他们会给你的婴儿床打折。
(笑声)
12:48
(Laughter)
250
768111
1158
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
251
769293
2015
对吧?所以当我说消费者被赋能时,
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
252
771332
2739
这已经超越了生物技术,
12:54
I actually really mean that.
253
774095
1819
我是说真的。
12:58
We're now beginning to produce, at Synthetic Genomics,
254
778273
3365
在Synthetic Genomics(合成基因公司), 我们现在开始生产
13:02
desktop printers
255
782540
1471
台式打印机,
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
785228
3530
可以让你设计细胞,
13:08
print a cell,
257
788782
1167
打印细胞,
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
258
789973
1845
执行细胞中的编码。
13:12
We can now print vaccines
259
792825
2103
我们现在可以实时打印疫苗,
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
260
794952
2247
就在飞机起飞时开始,
13:17
before it lands.
261
797223
1190
在着陆前完成。
13:19
We're shipping 78 of these machines this year.
262
799929
2572
我们今年将售出78台这种机器。
13:24
This is not theoretical biology. This is printing biology.
263
804068
4473
这不是理论生物学, 这是打印生物学。
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
264
810182
2196
让我再谈谈两个长期趋势,
13:33
that are coming at you over a longer time period.
265
813374
3326
是将会在更长的时间内 发生在你身上的。
13:37
The first one is, we're starting to redesign species.
266
817658
2656
第一个是,我们开始重新设计物种。
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
267
821055
1777
你已听说过了,对吧?
13:42
We're redesigning trees. We're redesigning flowers.
268
822856
2681
我们重新设计了树木, 我们重新设计了鲜花。
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
269
825561
2293
我们重新设计了酸奶,
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
270
828513
2030
奶酪,随便你要什么。
13:51
And that, of course, brings up the interesting question:
271
831678
2650
当然,这引出了一个有趣的问题:
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
272
834884
2336
我们要怎样以及何时重新设计人类?
13:59
And a lot of us think, "Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
273
839566
3557
我们很多人会想,“哦,不, 我们从来不想重新设计人类。”
14:04
Unless, of course, if your child has a Huntington's gene
274
844147
2715
当然,除非你的孩子 有亨廷顿氏舞蹈症基因
14:06
and is condemned to death.
275
846886
1389
并且被医生判了死刑。
14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on a cystic fibrosis gene,
276
849172
3363
或者,除非你遗传了 囊性纤维化基因,
14:12
in which case, you don't just want to redesign yourself,
277
852559
2690
在这种情况下, 你不只是想重新设计自己,
14:15
you want to redesign your children and their children.
278
855273
2539
你还想重新设计 你的孩子和他们的孩子。
14:18
And these are complicated debates and they're going to happen in real time.
279
858723
3645
这些都是复杂的争论, 它们当下正在发生着。
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
280
862839
1951
我给你们一个最近的例子。
14:25
One of the debates going on at the National Academies today
281
865531
3072
今天在国家科学院进行的 一场辩论是关于
14:29
is you have the power to put a gene drive into mosquitoes
282
869896
4702
如果你有能力把基因注入蚊子体内,
14:34
so that you will kill all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
283
874622
2984
这样你就可以杀死所有 携带疟疾的蚊子。
14:39
Now, some people say,
284
879547
2560
有人会说,
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment in an extreme way, don't do it."
285
882964
3465
“这将会以一种极端的方式 影响环境,不要这样做。”
14:47
Other people say,
286
887326
1155
其他人则说,
14:48
"This is one of the things that's killing millions of people yearly.
287
888505
3227
“这是个每年造成数百万人死亡的事情,
14:51
Who are you to tell me that I can't save the kids in my country?"
288
891756
3548
你凭什么对我说我不能 拯救我们国家的孩子们?”
14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
289
897183
1853
为什么这场争论如此复杂?
因为一旦你在巴西, 或在佛罗里达州南部
14:59
Because as soon as you let this loose in Brazil
290
899060
2881
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
291
901965
1423
放松管制——
15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
292
903412
1541
蚊子可不管什么墙。
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
293
904977
2301
当你把基因驱动放到空中时,
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
294
907302
1907
你是在为世界做决定。
15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
295
914145
2095
这个了不起的人获得了诺贝尔奖,
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
296
917103
1640
在获得诺贝尔奖后,
15:18
he's been worrying about
297
918767
1255
他一直在操心
15:21
how did life get started on this planet
298
921531
2103
生命是如何在这个星球上诞生的,
15:23
and how likely is it that it's in other places?
299
923658
2281
在其他地方存在的可能性有多大?
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around to this graduate students
300
927097
3202
所以他一直想招一些研究生,
15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
301
930323
1718
对他们说,
15:32
"Build me life but don't use any modern chemicals or instruments.
302
932864
3322
“去创造生物,但别使用任何 现代化学品或仪器。
15:36
Build me stuff that was here three billion years ago.
303
936210
2665
给我造些三十亿年前出现的东西。
15:38
You can't use lasers. You can't use this. You can't use that."
304
938899
3156
你不能用激光,你不能用这个, 你不能用那个。”
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built about three weeks ago.
305
944330
3245
他给了我一小瓶他三周前做的东西。
15:48
What has he built?
306
948639
1179
他做的是什么?
15:49
He's built basically what looked like soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
307
949842
4025
看起来就像是用脂质做的肥皂泡。
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
308
953891
2566
他造出了RNA的前体。
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA be absorbed by the cell
309
957291
3752
他让RNA的前体被细胞吸收,
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
310
962194
1883
然后让细胞分裂。
16:06
We may not be that far --
311
966031
1957
这一天可能不会太远——
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
312
969687
3117
10年后,也许20年后——
16:12
from generating life from scratch
313
972828
1970
我们就能从原始群落中
16:16
out of proto-communities.
314
976285
1803
造出生命。
16:19
Second long-term trend:
315
979512
1646
第二个长期趋势:
16:22
we've been living and are living through the digital age --
316
982273
3526
我们正在经历数字时代——
16:25
we're starting to live through the age of the genome
317
985823
2519
开始经历基因时代,
16:28
and biology and CRISPR and synthetic biology --
318
988366
3615
生物学,CRISPR和 合成生物学时代——
16:32
and all of that is going to merge into the age of the brain.
319
992870
2907
所有这些都将融入大脑时代。
16:36
So we're getting to the point where we can rebuild most of our body parts,
320
996743
3981
所以我们将会到达可以重建 我们大部分身体器官的时期,
16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone or burn your skin, it regrows.
321
1000748
3656
就像你折断骨头或烧伤皮肤, 它会重新生长一样。
16:44
We're beginning to learn how to regrow our tracheas
322
1004428
2668
我们开始学习如何再生
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
323
1007120
1864
气管或膀胱。
这两种方法都已被植入人体。
16:49
Both of those have been implanted in humans.
324
1009008
2306
16:51
Tony Atala is working on 32 different organs.
325
1011338
2728
托尼·阿塔拉正在研究32种不同的器官。
16:55
But the core is going to be this,
326
1015487
1890
但大脑才是核心,
16:57
because this is you and the rest is just packaging.
327
1017401
3054
因为这才是你,剩下的只是包装。
17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond 120, 130, 140 years
328
1022011
3547
没人能够活过120,130,140岁,
17:05
unless if we fix this.
329
1025582
1735
除非我们的身体能自我修复。
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
330
1028084
2066
这是最有趣的挑战。
这是下一个前沿,伴随着:
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
331
1030174
2111
17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
332
1032309
2347
“宇宙中生命有多么普遍?”
17:14
"Where did we come from?"
333
1034680
1806
“我们来自哪里?”
17:16
and questions like that.
334
1036510
1634
和诸如此类的问题。
17:20
Let me end this with an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
335
1040031
3190
让我引用一句可能是爱因斯坦 说过的话来结束这次演讲。
17:23
[You can live as if everything is a miracle,
336
1043697
2219
【你可以把一切当奇迹来活,
17:25
or you can live as if nothing is a miracle.]
337
1045940
2272
你也可以无视任何奇迹。】
17:28
It's your choice.
338
1048236
1513
这是你的选择。
17:30
You can focus on the bad, you can focus on the scary,
339
1050555
2479
你可以关注坏事情, 你可以关注可怕的事情,
17:33
and certainly there's a lot of scary out there.
340
1053058
2416
当然有很多可怕的事情。
17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
341
1056012
4732
但用你大脑的10%,或者20%,
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
342
1060768
1826
或者30%来专注这个问题。
17:43
But just remember,
343
1063474
1782
但记住,
17:45
we really are living in an age of miracle and wonder.
344
1065280
2609
我们生活在一个充满 奇迹,千变万化的时代。
17:48
We're lucky to be alive today. We're lucky to see this stuff.
345
1068271
3551
我们有幸活在如今的时代, 有幸看到这些东西。
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact with folks like the folks
346
1071846
2841
我们很幸运能够与像在这个房间里
17:54
who are building all the stuff in this room.
347
1074711
2110
打造了这些东西的人们互动。
17:57
So thank you to all of you, for all you do.
348
1077487
2975
感谢你们所有人, 感谢你们所做的一切。
18:01
(Applause)
349
1081066
3696
(鼓掌)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7