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譯者: Melody Tang
審譯者: 易帆 余
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
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讓我從羅伊·阿馬拉說起。
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new
technologies tend to be overestimated
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羅伊的論點是,大多數的新技術
00:20
in their impact to begin with,
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一開始的影響力往往被高估了,
00:22
and then they get underestimated
in the long term
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之後,時間久了,
它們的影響力就會被低估,
因為我們已經習以為常。
00:25
because we get used to them.
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00:26
These really are days
of miracle and wonder.
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「這真是充滿奇蹟和驚奇的日子。」
00:29
You remember that wonderful
song by Paul Simon?
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各位還記得保羅·賽門的
這首好歌嗎?
00:32
There were two lines in it.
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裡面有兩句歌詞。
00:33
So what was it that was considered
miraculous back then?
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所以,在那個年代,
哪些事情會被視為是奇蹟呢?
00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
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讓事物慢下來的——慢動作——
00:41
and the long-distance call.
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以及長途電話。
00:43
Because, of course, you used
to get interrupted by operators
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沒錯,因為過去的你
經常被接線生打斷,
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling.
Do you want to hang up?"
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他會告訴你:「長途電話喔,
您要先掛斷嗎?」
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling
all over the world.
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如今,與世界各地通話
我們已經習以為常。
00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
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是的,也許類似的事情也正發生在
00:55
with reading and programming life.
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生命密碼的解讀與編程上。
00:58
But before I unpack that,
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但在我解說之前,
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
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我們先來談談望遠鏡。
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated
originally in their impact.
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望遠鏡的影響力一開始被高估了。
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
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這是伽利略早期的款式之一。
01:12
People thought it was just
going to ruin all religion.
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大家以為它會毀掉所有宗教。
01:15
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:18
So we're not paying that much
attention to telescopes.
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現在我們沒怎麼注意望遠鏡了。
01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched
10 years ago, as you just heard,
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不過,就如各位前幾天聽到的
十年前升空的(克卜勒)太空望遠鏡,
01:26
could take this Volkswagen,
fly it to the moon,
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如果我們把這輛福斯汽車送到月球上,
01:29
and you could see the lights
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
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你可透過那望遠鏡
看到福斯汽車車燈亮著。
01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power
that allowed you to see
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其解析度能讓你看見
01:40
little specks of dust
floating around distant suns.
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漂浮在遙遠太陽周邊的小黑點。
01:44
Imagine for a second that this
was a sun a billion light years away,
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想像這是十億光年外的一顆恆星,
01:48
and you had a little speck of dust
that came in front of it.
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你可看到它前方的一個小塵埃。
01:51
That's what detecting
an exoplanet is like.
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偵測系外行星就是像這樣。
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes
that are now being launched
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很酷的是,新近升空的望遠鏡
02:00
would allow you to see
a single candle lit on the moon.
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可以讓你看到在月球上
一根點著的蠟燭。
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
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如果你放一個盤子在兩根蠟燭之間,
02:07
you could see two candles
separately at that distance.
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你可以從這麼遠的距離
分別看到兩根蠟燭。
02:11
And that's the kind
of resolution that you need
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有了這樣的解析度,
02:13
to begin to image
that little speck of dust
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你就可以開始成像
圍繞在太陽周邊的小塵埃,
02:16
as it comes around the sun
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02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
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看看是否有藍綠色的顏色。
02:21
And if it does have
a blue-green signature,
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如果確實有藍綠色的顏色,
就意味著,生命在宇宙中是普遍存在的。
02:23
it means that life
is common in the universe.
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02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green
signature on a distant planet,
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你第一次在遠方的星球上
看到藍綠色的顏色,
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
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就表示那裡有光合作用,
02:31
there's water there,
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那裡有水,
02:33
and the chances that you saw
the only other planet with photosynthesis
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除了地球外,你能在其它星球上
看到光合作用的可能性
02:36
are about zero.
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幾乎是零。
02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
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那是個劃時代的事件,
02:41
There's a before and after
we were alone in the universe:
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區分「宇宙中是否獨存人類」的前後,
02:44
forget about the discovery
of whatever continent.
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別再想發現什麼新大陸了。
02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
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當你們還在想這件事時,
02:50
we're now beginning
to be able to image most of the universe.
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我們現在已經可以
把大部分的宇宙成像出來。
這是充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
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02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
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我們也視為理所當然了。
02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
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類似的狀況也正發生在生命領域裡。
03:01
So we're hearing about life
in these little bits and pieces.
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我們零零碎碎地聽到
關於生命的資訊。
03:04
We hear about CRISPR,
and we hear about this technology,
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我們聽說過 CRISPR 技術,
我們聽到這種技術,
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
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我們聽到那種技術。
03:08
But the bottom line on life
is that life turns out to be code.
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但生命的本質基本上就是編碼。
03:13
And life as code is a really
important concept because it means,
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用編碼來看生命是個非常
重要的概念,因為它的意義
03:17
just in the same way
as you can write a sentence
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就像是你能夠寫出一段句子一樣,
03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
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不論是用英文、法文或中文,
03:25
just in the same way
as you can copy a sentence,
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就如同你可以複製一個句子一樣,
03:28
just in the same way
as you can edit a sentence,
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就像你可以編輯一個句子一樣,
03:30
just in the same way
as you can print a sentence,
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就像你可以列印一個句子一樣,
03:33
you're beginning to be able
to do that with life.
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你也開始可以對生命做同樣的事。
03:37
It means that we're beginning
to learn how to read this language.
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那就意味著,我們要開始學習
如何閱讀這種語言。
03:40
And this, of course, is the language
that is used by this orange.
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當然,這也是這顆柳橙的語言。
03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
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所以,這顆柳橙如何執行程式?
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes
like a computer does.
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它不能像電腦用 0 和 1 來執行。
它待在樹上,有一天它會 :
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
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03:51
plop!
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撲通掉下來!
03:52
And that means: execute.
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那就是:執行。
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
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AATCAAG 生根,
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
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TCGACC 開枝,
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves.
AGC: make me some flowers.
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GAC 生葉,AGC 開花,
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
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然後 GCAA 長出更多的柳橙果實。
04:08
If I edit a sentence in English
on a word processor,
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如果我用文字處理軟體
來編輯一段英文句子,
04:15
then what happens is you can go
from this word to that word.
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就是從這個字改成那個字。
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
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如果我在這顆柳橙裡動些手腳,
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR
or something else that you've heard of,
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用 CRISPR 或其它
你聽過的工具把 GCAAC 放入,
04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
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這個柳橙就會變成檸檬,
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
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或是變成葡萄柚,
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
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或是變成橘子。
04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
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如果我編輯一千個字母中的一個,
04:37
you become the person
sitting next to you today.
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你就會變成你身旁坐的那個人。
04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
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選座位的時候小心點。
04:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:45
What's happening on this stuff
is it was really expensive to begin with.
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事情是這樣的,
通常新的技術在一開始非常昂貴。
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
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就像長途電話。
04:51
But the cost of this is dropping
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
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但它的成本降低的速度
比摩爾定律還要快 50%。
04:55
The first $200 full genome
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
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昨天 Veritas 公司首推
200 美元的完整基因組定序服務。
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
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所以,當你在看這些系統,
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter,
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
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它無所謂,它無所謂,
它無所謂,接著,它有所謂了。
05:06
So let me just give you
the map view of this stuff.
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讓我用地圖的方式呈現給各位看。
05:10
This is a big discovery.
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這是一項大發現。
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
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這裡有 23 對染色體。
05:15
Cool.
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很酷。
05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version,
but instead of using a telescope,
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我們現在開始從望遠鏡的視角,
但不是使用望遠鏡,
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
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而是用顯微鏡來放大
05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
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那些染色體中比較小的,
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
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也就是 Y 染色體。
05:28
It's a third the size of the X.
It's recessive and mutant.
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它的尺寸只有 X 的三分之一,
它是隱性的、突變的。
05:32
But hey,
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但,嘿,
05:34
just a male.
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只是個男性罷了。
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
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看這個,
05:39
here's kind of a country view
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這像是在看整個國家,
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
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以 400 個鹼基對的解析度來看,
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550,
and then you zoom in to 850,
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然後你放大到 550 個解析度,
然後你放大到 850 個解析度,
05:48
and you can begin to identify
more and more genes as you zoom in.
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在你放大時,你就可以
開始識別越來越多的基因。
05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
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然後你放大到州的大小,
05:55
and you can begin to tell
who's got leukemia,
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你可以開始識別出誰有白血病,
05:59
how did they get leukemia,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
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他們是怎麼得到白血病,
那是什麼樣的白血病,
06:02
what shifted from what place
to what place.
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從什麼地方轉移到什麼地方。
06:05
And then you zoom in
to the Google street view level.
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然後你放大到像是
Google 街景的大小。
06:09
So this is what happens
if you have colorectal cancer
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這就是你從某個患有
結直腸癌病人身上,
06:12
for a very specific patient
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
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以字母解析度級別所看到的狀況。
06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff
is we're gathering information
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我們在這個方面做的是在收集訊息,
06:21
and just generating
enormous amounts of information.
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以及生成非常大量的訊息。
06:23
This is one of the largest
databases on the planet
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這是世界上最大的數據庫之一,
06:26
and it's growing faster
than we can build computers to store it.
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而且它增長的速度比
我們建造電腦來存儲它還更快。
你可以用這些資料
創造出不可思議的地圖。
06:32
You can create some incredible
maps with this stuff.
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06:35
You want to understand the plague
and why one plague is bubonic
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你想了解瘟疫,想了解為什麼
這個瘟疫是腺鼠疫,
06:38
and the other one
is a different kind of plague
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另一個是不同的瘟疫,
另一個又是不同的瘟疫?
06:40
and the other one
is a different kind of plague?
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這就是瘟疫的地圖。
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
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有些對人類絕對致命,有些則否。
06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
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06:46
some are not.
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06:48
And note, by the way,
as you go to the bottom of this,
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順便說一下,
當你追根究底要知道
它與結核病相比會如何呢?
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
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06:53
So this is the difference between
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
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所以這就是結核病
和各種瘟疫之間的區別。
06:57
and you can play detective
with this stuff,
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你可以像個偵探去探究,
06:59
because you can take
a very specific kind of cholera
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因為你可以拿一種特定的霍亂,
例如影響了海地的那種,
07:02
that affected Haiti,
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07:04
and you can look at
which country it came from,
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你可以看它來自哪個國家,
07:07
which region it came from,
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來自哪個地區,
07:09
and probably which soldier took that
from that African country to Haiti.
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以及可能是哪個士兵把那個霍亂
從那個非洲國家帶到海地。
07:17
Zoom out.
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現在遠看,
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
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它不只能近看。
這是人類製作過的最酷的地圖之一。
07:21
This is one of the coolest maps
ever done by human beings.
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07:24
What they've done is taken
all the genetic information they have
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他們把所有物種的全部遺傳信息
07:27
about all the species,
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07:29
and they've put a tree of life
on a single page
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做成一株生命樹放在一頁上,
07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
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你可以放大和縮小。
07:34
So this is what came first,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
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看得到先是什麼,如何分化、分支,
07:38
how large is that genome,
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該基因組有多大,
07:39
on a single page.
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全部以一頁呈現。
07:41
It's kind of the universe
of life on Earth,
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像是地球上生命的宇宙,
07:43
and it's being constantly
updated and completed.
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一直不斷被更新和匯齊。
07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
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所以當你看著這個,
07:48
the really important change is
the old biology used to be reactive.
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真正重要的變化是
以前是被動的舊的生物學。
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists
that had microscopes,
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過去很多生物學家有顯微鏡,
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses
and they were out observing animals.
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他們也有放大鏡,會去觀察動物。
07:58
The new biology is proactive.
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新的生物學要你主動出擊。
08:01
You don't just observe stuff,
you make stuff.
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你不只觀察東西,還可以創造東西。
08:05
And that's a really big change
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那是一個非常大的變化,
08:06
because it allows us
to do things like this.
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因為它使我們能夠做像這樣的事情。
08:10
And I know you're really
excited by this picture.
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而且我知道你真的
對這張照片感到很興奮。
(笑聲)
08:13
(Laughter)
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08:14
It only took us four years
and 40 million dollars
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我們花了四年時間和四千萬美元
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
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才拍到這張照片。
08:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:19
And what we did
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我們做的是
08:21
is we took the full gene code
out of a cell --
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把一個細胞的基因代碼抽取出來——
08:24
not a gene, not two genes,
the full gene code out of a cell --
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不是一個基因,兩個基因,而是
一個細胞中的完整基因代碼 --
建立了一個全新的基因代碼。
08:30
built a completely new gene code,
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08:32
inserted it into the cell,
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再將它植入細胞中,
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell
execute that code
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找出一個可以讓細胞
執行該代碼的方法,
08:37
and built a completely new species.
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然後就創造了一個全新的物種。
08:40
So this is the world's first
synthetic life form.
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所以這是世界上第一個
合成的生命形式。
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
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那你能用這個技術做什麼呢?
08:48
Well, this stuff is going
to change the world.
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好吧,這個技術將會改變世界。
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
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讓我告訴你們三個短期趨勢,
08:53
in terms of how it's going
to change the world.
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理解它將如何改變世界。
08:56
The first is we're going to see
a new industrial revolution.
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首先,我們將看到
一場新的工業革命。
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
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我說的是真的,不誇張。
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland
and Germany and Britain
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所以就像瑞士、德國和英國
09:06
changed the world with machines
like the one you see in this lobby,
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用你在大廳看到的機器
改變了世界一樣,
09:11
created power --
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創造能量。
09:13
in the same way CERN
is changing the world,
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與歐洲核子研究中心
一樣的方式正在改變世界,
09:15
using new instruments
and our concept of the universe --
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使用新儀器和我們對宇宙的概念。
09:20
programmable life forms
are also going to change the world
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可編程的生命形式也將改變世界,
09:23
because once you can program cells
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因為一旦你可以編程細胞
09:25
in the same way as you
program your computer chip,
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和你編程電腦晶片一樣,
09:29
then you can make almost anything.
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你幾乎可以做出任何東西。
09:32
So your computer chip
can produce photographs,
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你的電腦晶片可以製作照片、
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
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製作音樂、製作電影、
09:37
can produce love letters,
can produce spreadsheets.
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製作情書以及製作電子表格。
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes
flying through there.
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其運作原理就是一些 1 和 0
在晶片裡飛來飛去 。
09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
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如果你可以讓 ATCG 在細胞中流通,
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
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3054
這個軟件就可以製作自己的硬體,
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
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2072
這意味著它擴展的速度非常快。
09:52
No matter what happens,
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無論發生了什麼,
09:54
if you leave your cell phone
by your bedside,
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2158
如果你將手機放在你的床邊,
你在早上不會有十億支手機。
09:56
you will not have a billion
cell phones in the morning.
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2586
09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
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4913
但如果你用活的生物體,
10:05
you can make this stuff
at a very large scale.
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2389
你可以大量製造。
10:09
One of the things you can do
is you can start producing
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2896
一件你可以在 2025 年以前做的事
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
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2223
就是以商業規模生產
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
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2426
接近碳中性的燃料。
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
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1761
那是我們和埃克森美孚石油公司
正在合作進行的。
10:20
But you can also substitute
for agricultural lands.
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2409
你也可以用它來取代農田。
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares
to make oils or to make proteins,
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4751
不是用 100 公頃的土地
來製油或蛋白質,
10:28
you can make it in these vats
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1859
你可以在這些大桶裡做,
10:29
at 10 or 100 times
the productivity per hectare.
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以每公頃 10 到 100 倍的產量來生產。
10:33
Or you can store information,
or you can make all the world's vaccines
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3382
你可以存儲資訊
或製作世界上所有的疫苗,
10:36
in those three vats.
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1299
就在那三個大桶裡。
10:39
Or you can store most of the information
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
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3949
或者在那三個大桶裡存儲
歐洲核子研究中心的大部分資料。
10:44
DNA is a really powerful
information storage device.
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3209
DNA 真的是很強大訊息存儲設備。
10:48
Second turn:
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1588
第二個趨勢是:
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise
of theoretical biology.
209
650418
2784
你會開始看到理論生物學的崛起。
10:54
So, medical school departments are one
of the most conservative places on earth.
210
654256
4202
所以,醫學院系是
地球上最保守的地方之一。
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar
to the way they taught anatomy
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658482
3417
他們教解剖學的方式
和 100 年前他們
教解剖學的方式相似。
11:01
100 years ago.
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661923
1166
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
213
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2024
「歡迎,同學,這是你的屍體。」
11:06
One of the things medical schools are
not good at is creating new departments,
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666149
3707
醫學院不擅長創建新部門,
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
215
669880
1749
這是為什麼它很少見的原因。
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department
based on informatics, data, knowledge
216
672351
6498
艾薩克·寇韓現在已經在哈佛醫學院
創建了一個基於訊息學、
數據和知識的部門。
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
217
678873
1511
11:21
And in a sense,
what's beginning to happen is
218
681408
2177
從某種意義上,開始要發生的是
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
219
683609
2482
生物學開始會獲得足夠的數據
11:26
that it can begin to follow
the steps of physics,
220
686115
2766
可以開始追隨物理學發展的步伐,
11:28
which used to be observational physics
221
688905
3388
物理學曾經是「觀測」物理
11:32
and experimental physicists,
222
692317
1971
和「實驗」物理,
11:34
and then started creating
theoretical biology.
223
694312
2162
然後開始創建理論生物學。
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
224
696498
2004
這就是你即將會看到的,
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
698526
1980
因為你有這麼多的病歷紀錄,
11:40
because you have
so much data about people:
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700530
2032
因為你所擁有的
有關人的數據如此之多:
11:42
you've got their genomes,
you've got their viromes,
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702586
2410
有他們的基因組,有他們的病毒,
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
228
705020
1494
有他們的微生物群。
11:46
And as this information stacks,
229
706538
1981
而從這個訊息庫,
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
230
708543
2063
你就可以開始做預測。
11:52
The third thing that's happening
is this is coming to the consumer.
231
712149
3255
第三件正在發生的是有關消費者的。
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
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4156
現在你也可以對自己的基因做定序了。
12:01
And this is beginning to create
companies like 23andMe,
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721698
2728
這類的服務會造就出
像 23andMe 這類的公司,
12:04
and companies like 23andMe
are going to be giving you
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724450
2478
而像 23andMe 這類的公司
會給你越來越多的數據,
12:06
more and more and more data,
235
726952
1352
12:08
not just about your relatives,
236
728328
1544
不只是有關你的親戚的訊息,
12:10
but about you and your body,
237
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1360
而且還有關於你和你的身體,
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
238
731946
1531
它會做比較,
12:13
and it's going
to compare stuff across time,
239
733501
2093
而且它會與不同時間的資料做比較,
而這些將成為非常大的數據庫。
12:15
and these are going to become
very large databases.
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2607
但它也會開始以意想不到的方式
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect
a series of other businesses
241
738249
2962
12:21
in unexpected ways.
242
741235
1537
影響到許多其他的行業。
12:23
Normally, when you advertise something,
you really don't want the consumer
243
743802
3751
通常,當你做廣告時,
你真的不希望消費者
12:27
to take your advertisement
into the bathroom to pee on.
244
747577
4567
拿你的廣告到浴室,在上面小便。
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
245
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2055
當然,除非你是宜家。
12:37
Because when you rip this
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
246
757381
2906
因為當你從一本雜誌上
撕下這個,然後你撒尿在上面,
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
247
760311
2069
如果你懷孕了,它會變成藍色。
12:42
(Laughter)
248
762404
1213
(笑聲)
12:44
And they'll give you
a discount on your crib.
249
764214
3873
他們會給你嬰兒床的折扣。
12:48
(Laughter)
250
768111
1158
(笑聲)
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
251
769293
2015
對嗎? 所以當我還在說消費者賦權時,
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
252
771332
2739
商人早已超越了生物技術,
12:54
I actually really mean that.
253
774095
1819
我真心認為如此。
12:58
We're now beginning to produce,
at Synthetic Genomics,
254
778273
3365
我們現在開始在
Synthetic Genomics 公司生產
13:02
desktop printers
255
782540
1471
桌上型打印機,
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
785228
3530
它可以讓你設計細胞、
13:08
print a cell,
257
788782
1167
列印細胞、
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
258
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1845
在細胞上執行程序。
13:12
We can now print vaccines
259
792825
2103
我們現在可以即時,
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
260
794952
2247
在飛機起飛和降落其間,
13:17
before it lands.
261
797223
1190
完成疫苗的打印。
13:19
We're shipping 78
of these machines this year.
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799929
2572
今年我們將生產 78 台這種機器。
13:24
This is not theoretical biology.
This is printing biology.
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804068
4473
這不是理論生物學。
這是印刷生物學。
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
264
810182
2196
我來談談兩個長期趨勢,
13:33
that are coming at you
over a longer time period.
265
813374
3326
未來會慢慢地在你面前發生。
13:37
The first one is, we're starting
to redesign species.
266
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2656
第一個是,我們開始重新設計物種。
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
267
821055
1777
你已經聽說過,對嗎?
13:42
We're redesigning trees.
We're redesigning flowers.
268
822856
2681
我們正在重新設計樹木。
我們正在重新設計鮮花。
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
269
825561
2293
我們正在重新設計優格、
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
270
828513
2030
奶酪,無論你想要什麼。
13:51
And that, of course,
brings up the interesting question:
271
831678
2650
那當然帶出了一個有趣的問題:
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
272
834884
2336
我們應該如何以及何時
重新設計人類呢?
13:59
And a lot of us think,
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
273
839566
3557
我們很多人在想,「不!
我們永遠不要重新設計人類。」
14:04
Unless, of course, if your child
has a Huntington's gene
274
844147
2715
當然,除非你的孩子
有亨丁頓舞蹈症的基因,
14:06
and is condemned to death.
275
846886
1389
那等於被判死刑。
14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on
a cystic fibrosis gene,
276
849172
3363
或者,你有囊性纖維化基因
可能會傳給下一代,
14:12
in which case, you don't just want
to redesign yourself,
277
852559
2690
這時,你不只是想要重新設計自己,
你也會想重新設計你的孩子
和他們的孩子。
14:15
you want to redesign your children
and their children.
278
855273
2539
14:18
And these are complicated debates
and they're going to happen in real time.
279
858723
3645
這些複雜的辯論未來都會發生。
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
280
862839
1951
我給你一個當前的例子。
14:25
One of the debates going on
at the National Academies today
281
865531
3072
當今國家科學院正辯論的議題之一是
14:29
is you have the power to put
a gene drive into mosquitoes
282
869896
4702
能把一基因塞到蚊子身體裡
14:34
so that you will kill
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
283
874622
2984
來消滅所有攜帶瘧疾的蚊子。
14:39
Now, some people say,
284
879547
2560
但是有些人說,
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment
in an extreme way, don't do it."
285
882964
3465
「這將會嚴重地影響環境,
不要這樣做。」
14:47
Other people say,
286
887326
1155
其他人說,
14:48
"This is one of the things
that's killing millions of people yearly.
287
888505
3227
這是每年造成數百萬人
死亡的原因之一。
14:51
Who are you to tell me
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
288
891756
3548
你憑什麼說
我不能拯救我國的小孩。」
為什麼這場辯論如此複雜呢?
14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
289
897183
1853
因為只要在巴西釋出這種蚊子,
14:59
Because as soon as you
let this loose in Brazil
290
899060
2881
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
291
901965
1423
或釋在佛羅里達州南部,
15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
292
903412
1541
蚊子可不管什麼牆。
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
293
904977
2301
釋出一個基因的決定
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
294
907302
1907
會影響整個世界。
這位出色的男子獲得諾貝爾獎。
15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
295
914145
2095
在獲得諾貝爾獎後,
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
296
917103
1640
15:18
he's been worrying about
297
918767
1255
他一直在擔心
15:21
how did life get started on this planet
298
921531
2103
生命如何在這個星球上開始,
15:23
and how likely is it
that it's in other places?
299
923658
2281
它在其它地方開始的
可能性有多大呢?
所以他一直對他的研究生說,
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around
to this graduate students
300
927097
3202
15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
301
930323
1718
15:32
"Build me life but don't use
any modern chemicals or instruments.
302
932864
3322
「幫我創造一些生命,但不要使用
任何現代化學品或儀器。
15:36
Build me stuff that was here
three billion years ago.
303
936210
2665
創造那些三十億年就存在的生命。
15:38
You can't use lasers.
You can't use this. You can't use that."
304
938899
3156
不能使用激光,
不能用這個,不能用那個。」
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built
about three weeks ago.
305
944330
3245
大約三個星期前,
他給了我一瓶他創造的東西。
15:48
What has he built?
306
948639
1179
他創造了什麼?
15:49
He's built basically what looked like
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
307
949842
4025
他的創造基本上看起來像
由脂質製成的肥皂泡。
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
308
953891
2566
他創造了前信使 RNA 。
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA
be absorbed by the cell
309
957291
3752
讓前信使 RNA 被細胞吸收
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
310
962194
1883
然後讓細胞分裂。
我們可能在不久的將來,
16:06
We may not be that far --
311
966031
1957
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
312
969687
3117
或許十年,或許二十年,
16:12
from generating life from scratch
313
972828
1970
自原始共同體中
從無到有製出生命來。
16:16
out of proto-communities.
314
976285
1803
16:19
Second long-term trend:
315
979512
1646
第二個長期趨勢是:
16:22
we've been living and are living
through the digital age --
316
982273
3526
我們已經和正在經歷數位時代,
16:25
we're starting to live through
the age of the genome
317
985823
2519
開始經歷基因時代、
生物學、 CRISPR,
和合成生物學的年代,
16:28
and biology and CRISPR
and synthetic biology --
318
988366
3615
16:32
and all of that is going to merge
into the age of the brain.
319
992870
2907
所有這些都將融入大腦的年代。
16:36
So we're getting to the point where
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
320
996743
3981
我們即將進入可以重建
大部分身體部位的時期。
16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone
or burn your skin, it regrows.
321
1000748
3656
就像你斷了的骨頭
或燒傷的皮膚會再生,
16:44
We're beginning to learn
how to regrow our tracheas
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我們開始學習
如何重新生出我們的氣管,
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
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或如何重新生出我們的膀胱。
16:49
Both of those have been
implanted in humans.
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這兩個都已經被移植到人體。
16:51
Tony Atala is working on
32 different organs.
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托尼·阿塔拉正努力造出
32 種不同的器官。
16:55
But the core is going to be this,
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但這才是核心,
16:57
because this is you
and the rest is just packaging.
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因為核心是你,其餘的都只是包裝。
17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond
120, 130, 140 years
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沒有人會活過120 歲、
130 歲或 140 年歲,
17:05
unless if we fix this.
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除非我們解決這個問題。
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
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這是最有趣的挑戰。
這開疆拓土伴隨著:
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
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17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
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「宇宙中的生命有多普遍呢?」
17:14
"Where did we come from?"
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「我們從哪裡來?」
17:16
and questions like that.
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和像那樣的問題。
17:20
Let me end this with
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
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讓我引述杜撰的
愛因斯坦話語來總結:
17:23
[You can live as if
everything is a miracle,
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【你可以把一切當奇蹟來活,
17:25
or you can live as if
nothing is a miracle.]
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也可以無視任何奇蹟。】
17:28
It's your choice.
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這是你的選擇。
17:30
You can focus on the bad,
you can focus on the scary,
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你可以專注於壞事,可怕之事,
17:33
and certainly there's
a lot of scary out there.
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可怕之事的確存在。
17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
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但用你大腦的 10%、20%
或者 30% 來專注這個問題。
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
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17:43
But just remember,
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但請記住,
17:45
we really are living in an age
of miracle and wonder.
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我們確實生活在
一個充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。
17:48
We're lucky to be alive today.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
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我們有幸今天還能活著,
看到這些東西。
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact
with folks like the folks
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我們很幸運能夠
與這個房間裡那些正在建設
所有東西的人互動。
17:54
who are building
all the stuff in this room.
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17:57
So thank you to all of you,
for all you do.
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謝謝你們所有人,和所做的一切。
18:01
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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