You Don’t Actually Know What Your Future Self Wants | Shankar Vedantam | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Korom

When I was 12 years old,

Kada mi je bilo 12 godina,

I fractured my foot playing soccer.

slomio sam stopalo igrajući fudbal.

I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night,

Nisam rekao roditeljima kada sam te noći došao kući

because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie,

jer me je sledećeg dana otac vodio da gledamo film,

a soccer movie.

film o fudbalu.

I worried that if I told my parents about the foot,

Brinuo sam da ako kažem roditeljima za stopalo,

they would take me to see a doctor.

odvešće me kod doktora.

I didn't want to see a doctor,

Nisam želeo da idem kod doktora,

I wanted to see the movie.

želeo sam da gledam film.

The next morning, my dad goes,

Sledećeg jutra, moj otac će:

"It's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater."

„Lepo je napolju. Zašto ne prošetamo do bioskopa.”

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It was a mile away.

To je kilometar i po hoda.

As we go, he says,

Dok smo hodali, on kaže:

"Why are you limping?"

„Zašto hramlješ?”

I tell him I have something in my shoe.

Kažem mu da mi je nešto u cipeli.

The movie was spectacular.

Film je bio spektakularan.

It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars,

Govorio je o nekim od najvećih fudbalskih zvezda,

great Brazilian players.

sjajnim brazilskim igračima.

I was ecstatic.

Bio sam u ekstazi.

At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot;

Kad se film završio, rekao sam ocu za stopalo;

he took me to see an orthopedic doctor,

poveo me je kod ortopeda,

who put my foot in a cast for three weeks.

koji mi je stavio gips na tri nedelje.

I tell you the story today, because four decades later,

Pripovedam vam priču danas jer četiri decenije kasnije,

I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.

zaista sebe više ne smatram ljubiteljem fudbala.

Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football.

Sada je moja sportska privrženost okrenuta ka drugačijem vidu fudbala.

Now my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible.

Sad, meni kao dvanaestogodišnjaku ovo ne bi bilo samo nerazumljivo.

My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal.

Ja kao dvanaestogodišnjak bih ovo posmatrao kao izdaju.

Now you might say we all change from the time we are 12,

Možda biste rekli kako se svi promenimo od 12. godine,

so let me fast-forward a decade.

stoga dozvolite da premotam deceniju unapred.

When I was 22,

Kada mi je bilo 22 godine,

I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India.

bio sam sveže svršeni inženjer elektronike iz južne Indije.

I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States,

Nisam imao pojma da ću tri decenije kasnije živeti u Sjedinjenim Državama,

that I would be a journalist,

da ću da budem novinar

and that I would be the host of a podcast called "Hidden Brain."

i da ću da vodim podkast pod nazivom „Skriveni mozak”.

It's a show about human behavior

Radi se o emisiji o ljudskom ponašanju

and how to apply psychological science to our lives.

kao i kako da primenimo psihološku nauku u našim životima.

Now we didn’t have podcasts when I graduated from college.

Nismo imali podkaste kad sam diplomirao na fakultetu.

We didn’t walk around with smartphones in our pockets.

Nismo hodali naokolo sa pametnim telefonima u džepovima.

So my future was not just unknown;

Te je moja budućnost bila ne samo nepoznata,

it was unknowable.

već i nepojmljiva.

All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years,

Svi smo svedoci kako je to izgledalo u poslednje tri godine,

as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic.

dok polako izranjamo iz epidemije kovida.

If we think about the people we used to be three years ago, before the pandemic,

Ako pomislimo na to ko smo bili pre tri godine, pre pandemije,

we can see how we have changed.

možemo da vidimo kako smo se promenili.

We can see how anxiety and isolation

Možemo da vidimo kako su anksiozonost i izolacija,

and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods,

kao i preokreti u našim životima i prilikama,

how this has changed us, changed our outlook,

kako nas je to promenilo, promenilo naše poglede,

changed our perspective.

promenilo našu perspektivu.

But there is a paradox here,

Međutim, ovde imamo paradoks,

and the paradox is when we look backwards,

a paradoks je da kada se osvrnemo unazad,

we can see enormous changes in who we have become.

vidimo ogromne promene u tome ko smo postali.

But when we look forwards,

Kad pogledamo pak napred,

we tend to imagine that we're going to be the same people in the future.

zamišljamo da ćemo biti isti ljudi u budućnosti.

Now sure, we imagine the world is going to be different.

Sad, zasigurno da zamišljamo kako će svet biti drugačiji.

We know what AI and climate change

Znamo šta će VI i klimatske promene

is going to mean for a very different world.

značiti u veoma različitom svetu.

But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives,

Ne zamišljamo pak da ćemo mi sami imati različite perspektive,

different views, different preferences in the future.

različite poglede, različite sklonosti u budućnosti.

I call this the illusion of continuity.

Nazivam to iluzijom kontinuiteta.

And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards,

I mislim da je jedan razlog za nju to što kada se osvrnemo unazad,

the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear.

kontrast između našeg pređašnjeg ja i toga ko smo danas je tako jasan.

We can see it so clearly that we have become different people.

Toliko nam je jasno vidljivo da smo postali drugačiji ljudi.

When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older,

Kada pogledamo unapred, možda zamišljamo sebe kao malčice starije,

a little grayer,

malčice više osedele,

but we don't imagine, fundamentally,

ali ne zamišljamo, temeljno,

that we're going to have a different outlook or perspective,

da ćemo imati drugačiji pogled ili perspektivu,

that we're going to be different people.

da ćemo biti drugačiji ljudi.

And so those changes seem more amorphous.

I stoga se te promene čine bezobličnim.

I want to make the case to you today

Želim da pred vas danas iznesem argument

that this illusion has profound consequences

da ova iluzija ima istinske posledice

not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts,

ne samo na to da li ćemo postati fudbaleri ili voditelji podkasta,

but for matters involving life and death.

već i za pitanja koja uključuju život i smrt.

Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinka.

Dozvolite da vas upoznam sa Džonom i Stefani Rinka.

We did a story about them for "Hidden Brain" some years ago.

Radili smo priču o njima za „Skriveni mozak” pre nekoliko godina.

This photograph was taken in 1971, on their wedding day.

Ova fotografija je napravljena 1971, na dan njihovog venčanja.

John and Stephanie had just eloped,

Džon i Stefani su upravo pobegli

and gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts.

i venčali se u kembričkoj opštini u Masačusetsu.

He was 22, she was 19.

On je imao 22, ona 19 godina.

John told me that after they got married,

Džon mi je rekao da su nakon venčanja

they traveled to different parts of the country.

putovali u razne delove države.

They eventually settled in North Carolina.

Naposletku su se skrasili u Severnoj Karolini.

John became a high school basketball coach,

Džon je postao košarkaški trener u srednjoj školi,

Stephanie became a nurse.

Stefani je postala medicinska sestra.

And because they lived in a rural part of the state,

I kako su živeli u ruralnom delu države,

she would often make house visits to patients.

često je išla u kućne posete pacijentima.

Many of the patients she saw were very sick.

Mnogi od pacijenata koje je posećivala su bili veoma bolesni.

They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life.

Imali su neizlečive bolesti, veoma nizak kvalitet života.

And when Stephanie came home from these visits,

I kad bi se Stefani vratila kući iz ovih poseta,

she was often shaken.

često je bila potresena.

And she would tell John,

I rekla bi Džonu:

"John, if I ever get a terminal illness,

„Džone, ako se ikad smrtno razbolim,

please do nothing to prolong my suffering.

molim te nemoj da mi produžavaš patnju.

I care more about quality of life than quantity of life.

Više mi je stalo do kvaliteta nego kvantiteta života.”

In her more dramatic moments, she would say,

U nešto dramatičnijim trenucima bi rekla:

"John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me.

„Džone, ako se ikad toliko razbolim, samo me upucaj.

Just shoot me."

Samo me upucaj.”

And John Rinka would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife,

I Džon Rinka bi s ljubavlju pogledao svoju suprugu, svoju zdravu suprugu

and he would say,

i rekao bi:

"OK, Steph. OK."

„U redu, Stef. U redu.”

Fast-forward a couple of decades.

Premotajmo par decenija.

In her late fifties, Stephanie begins to slur her words.

U njenim kasnim pedesetim, Stefani počinje da guta reči.

She goes to see a doctor, who runs some tests,

Odlazi kod doktora koji odradi neke testove

and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease.

i dijagnostikuje joj ALS, Lu Gerigovu bolest.

He tells her it's fatal. It's incurable.

Kaže joj da je smrtonosna. Neizlečiva.

And he tells her that a day is going to come

I kaže joj da će doći dan

when she is no longer able to breathe on her own.

kada više neće biti u stanju da diše samostalno.

Stephanie, being Stephanie,

Stefani budući Stefani,

decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can,

odlučuje da izvuče što je više moguće užitka i zadovoljstva iz života,

she spends time with friends and family.

provodi vreme sa prijateljima i porodicom.

As she gets sicker,

Kako postaje bolesnija,

she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love.

ona i Džon provode neko vreme na prelepoj plaži koju oboje vole.

But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe.

Međutim, stigne dan kada Stefani zapravo više nije u stanju da diše.

She's gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.

Bori se za vazduh, i Džon je vodi u bolnicu.

And a nurse at the hospital asked Stephanie,

A medicinska sestra u bolnici pita Stefani:

"Mrs. Rinka, would you like us to put you on a ventilator?"

„Gđo Rinka, da li biste želeli da vas stavimo na respirator?”

And Stephanie says yes.

A Stefani kaže da.

John is flabbergasted.

Džon je zaprepašćen.

They've been having this conversation for 30 years.

Razgovaraju o ovome 30 godina.

Surely that's not what Stephanie wants.

Zasigurno ovo nije nešto što Stefani želi.

He doesn't say anything.

Ne govori ništa.

The next morning, he says,

Sledeće jutro kaže:

"Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator,

„Stef, kada te je medicinska sestra juče pitala da li želiš na respirator

and you said yes,

i ti si rekla da,

is that really what you want?"

da li je to ono što zaista želiš?”

And Stephanie Rinka said yes.

A Stefani Rinka je rekla da.

Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive,

Mogli biste da tvrdite, da je Stefani napisala unapred direktivu,

if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious,

da je Stefani stigla u bolnicu u nesvesnom stanju,

if the nurse had asked John, "What is it your wife would want?"

da je medicinska sestra pitala Džona: „Šta bi tvoja supruga želela?”

John, without hesitation, would have said,

Džon bi bez oklevanja rekao:

"Of course she does not want to go on a ventilator.

„Naravno da ne želi na respirator.

We should figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible

Trebalo bi da pronađemo način da joj bude što je udobnije moguće

so that she can die with dignity."

kako bi mogla dostojanstveno da umre.”

But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum.

Međutim, naravno, ovo jedino razrešava pravnu dilemu.

It doesn't solve the ethical problem here.

Ne rešava etički problem ovde.

And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy,

A etički problem je da Stefani sa 39 godina, kada je bila zdrava,

had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59,

nije imala stvarnu zamisao šta bi Stefani sa 59 godina,

with a terminal illness, gasping for air,

sa neizlečivom bolešću, boreći se za vazduh

would really want.

zaista želela.

For the older Stephanie,

Za stariju Stefani,

her younger self might as well have been a stranger.

njena mlađa verzija je praktično stranac.

A stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her.

Stranac koji pokušava da donese odluku o životu i smrti za nju.

Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment;

Filozofi su godinama govorili o misaonom eksperimentu;

it’s sometimes called the “ship of Theseus”.

ponekad naslovljenom kao „Tezejev brod”.

The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits,

Veliki ratnik Tezej se vraća sa svojih podviga,

his ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial.

brod mu je ukotvljen u luci kao spomenik.

And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay,

I tokom decenija, delovi broda počinju da trule i propadaju,

and as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks.

i kako se ovo dešava, stare daske menjaju novim.

Until, eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus

Dok naposletku svaki deo Tezejevog broda

was built from something new.

nije sagrađen od nečeg novog.

And philosophers, starting with Plato,

A filozofi, počevši od Platona,

have asked the question "If every part of the ship of Theseus is new,

postavljali su pitanje: „Ako je svaki deo Tezejevog broda nov,

is this still the ship of Theseus?"

da li je to i dalje Tezejev brod?”

You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus.

Vi i ja smo živi primeri Tezejevog broda.

Our cells turn over all the time.

Naše ćelije se stalno smenjuju.

The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today.

Ljudi koji ste bili pre 10 godina nisu ljudi koji ste danas.

Biologically, you have become a different person.

Biološki ste postali druga osoba.

But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level.

Verujem ipak da se nešto daleko suštinskije dešava na psihološkoj ravni.

Because you could argue a ship is not just a collection of planks,

Jer biste mogli da tvrdite kako brod nije puki zbir dasaka,

a body is not just a collection of cells.

telo nije puki zbir ćelija.

It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship.

Redosled dasaka čini brod.

It's the organization of the cells that make the body.

Redosled ćelija čini telo.

If you preserve the organization,

Ako sačuvate redosled,

even if you swap planks or cells in and out,

čak iako izmenjate daske ili ćelije,

you still have the ship, you still have the same body.

i dalje imate brod, i dalje imate isto telo.

But at a psychological level,

Međutim, na psihološkoj ravni,

each new layer that's put down

svaki novi sloj koji se doda

is not identical to the one that came before it.

nije identičan onome koji mu je prethodio.

The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about

Čuvena plastičnost mozga o kojoj smo svi toliko slušali

means that, on an ongoing basis,

znači da redovno,

you are constantly becoming a new person.

konstantno postajete nova osoba.

This has profound consequences for so many aspects of our lives.

Ovo ima istinske posledice na toliko aspekata naših života.

You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar

Znate, imam iluziju da su dvanaestogodišnji Šankar

who wanted to be a soccer star,

koji je želeo da bude fudbalska zvezda

and 52-year-old Shankar who is the podcast host

i 52-godišnji Šankar koji vodi podkast,

and 82-year-old Shankar,

i 82-godišnji Šankar

who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach,

koji će nadam se jednog dana živeti na prelepoj plaži,

that these are all the same person.

da su svi oni ista osoba.

Is that really true?

Da li je to uistinu tačno?

Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day,

Ostavimo po strani filozofska pitanja za posle

and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges

i dozvolite da vam govorim o nekim od praktičnih izazova

of this problem.

ovog problema.

When we make promises to other people,

Kada dajemo obećanja drugim ljudima,

when we promise to love someone till death do us part,

kada obećamo da ćemo voleti nekoga dok nas smrt ne rastavi,

we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep.

dajemo obećanje koje će stranac morati da održi.

Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes.

Naše buduće verzije možda neće deliti naše poglede, perspektive, nade.

When we lock people up and throw away the key,

Kada zaključamo ljude i bacimo ključ,

it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years.

ne samo da će ljudi koje zatvaramo biti različiti za 30 godina.

We are going to be different 30 years from now.

Mi ćemo biti različiti za 30 godina od danas.

Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today.

Naša potreba za odmazdom, za osvetom možda neće biti ono što je danas.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

When we pass laws,

Kada donosimo zakone,

we often do so with an intent of making a better country,

često to radimo sa namerom da učinimo državu boljom,

improving our country.

unapredimo našu državu.

But any country that's been around for a few decades

Međutim, bilo koja država koja postoji nekoliko decenija

has numerous laws on the books

ima zbornik brojnih zakona

that made perfect sense when they were crafted --

koji su imali savršenog smisla kada su pisani -

in fact, that were seen as enlightened when they were crafted --

zapravo, doživljavani su prosvetiteljskim kada su pisani -

and today, they seem antiquated or absurd, or even unconscionable.

a danas se čine zastarelim ili apsurdnim ili čak nesavesnim.

And all of these examples stem from the same problem,

A svi ovi primeri proizlaze iz istog problema,

which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history.

a to je da zamišljamo kako mi predstavljamo kraj istorije.

That the future is only going to be more of the same.

Da će budućnost biti više-manje ista.

I have three pieces of advice

Imam tri saveta

on how to wrestle with this wicked problem.

kako da se borite sa ovim opakim problemom.

And it is a wicked problem,

A radi se o opakom problemu

because all of us spend so much of our lives

jer svi mi provodimo značajan deo naših života

trying to make our future selves happy.

pokušavajući da usrećimo buduće sebe.

We don't stop to ask,

Ne zastajemo da upitamo:

"Is it possible that in 20 or 30 years,

„Da li je moguće da se za 20 ili 30 godina

our future selves are going to look back at us

naša buduća ja neće osvrnuti na nas

with bewilderment, with resentment.

zbunjeno i s prezirom?”

That our future selves will ask us,

Da nas naša buduća ja neće pitati:

"What made you possibly think that that is what I would want?"

„Kako si uopšte mislio da je ovo nešto što bih želeo?”

The first piece of advice I have

Prvi savet koji imam glasi:

is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person

ako prihvatite ideju da ćete biti različita osoba

in 30 years' time,

za 30 godina,

you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become.

trebalo bi da igrate aktivnu ulogu u oblikovanju osobe koja ćete postati.

You should be the curator of your future self.

Trebalo bi da budete kustos budućeg sebe.

You should be the architect of your future self.

Trebalo bi da budete arhitekta budućeg sebe.

But what does that mean?

Međutim, šta to znači?

Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family.

Provodite vreme s ljudima koji nisu samo vaši prijatelji i porodica.

Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits

Provodite vreme na hobijima i profesionalnim usavršavanjima

that are not just what you do regularly.

koji nisu nešto što prosto redovno radite.

Expand your horizons,

Proširite svoje vidike,

because you're going to become someone different,

kako ćete postati neko drugi,

you might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be.

mogli biste da upravljate odlukom ko će ta osoba da bude.

So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.

Dakle, prvi savet je da ostanete radoznali.

Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums,

Drugo, kako iznosimo izjave na društvenim mrežama i političkim forumima

or at dinner parties,

ili večernjim zabavama,

let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us

imajmo na umu da se među ljudima koji se možda ne slažu s nama

are our own future selves.

nalazimo budući mi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So when we express views with great certitude and confidence,

Dakle kada izražavamo stavove sa čvrstom ubeđenošću i samopouzdanjem,

let's remember to add a touch of humility.

ne zaboravimo da dodamo dašak smernosti.

This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level --

To je tačno, usput, ne samo na individualnom nivou -

it's also true at an organizational level.

tačno je i na nivou organizacija.

I was speaking, some time ago, with this young, wonderful woman.

Razgovarao sam, pre nekog vremena, sa jednom mladom, sjajnom ženom.

She had just reached a position of authority at her organization,

Upravo je stigla na poziciju autoriteta u njenoj organizaciji

and she had many idealistic ideas

i imala je mnogo idealističkih zamisli

of how she wanted to change her organization.

o tome kako želi da promeni svoju organizaciju.

And she asked me, "How do we make these changes

A upitala me je: „Kako da napravimo promene

so that in the future,

da u budućnosti

no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made?"

niko ne može da dođe i poništi promene koje sam napravila?”

And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief,

A radi se o krajnje ljudskom nagonu, ali potiče iz istog ubeđenja

that our perspective on history is the final word.

da je naša perspektiva o istoriji poslednja reč.

And quite simply, this is wrong.

A to je prosto pogrešno.

Three.

Treće.

I've given you a number of ways

Naveo sam vam brojne načine

in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today.

na koje će vaše buduće ja biti slabije, krhkije od nas danas.

And that is true, that is part of the story.

I to je tačno, to je deo priče.

But it is only a part of the story.

Međutim, radi se samo o delu priče.

Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths

Naša buduća ja će takođe imati sposobnost, snagu

and wisdom that we do not possess today.

i mudrost koju danas ne posedujemo.

So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate,

Dakle, kada smo suočeni sa mogućnostima i dvoumimo se,

when I tell myself, "I don't think I have it in me

kada kažem sebi: „Mislim da nemam šta je potrebno

to quit my job and start my own company,"

da dam otkaz i osnujem svoju firmu”,

or I tell myself I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument

ili kad kažem sebi da nemam šta je potrebno da naučim da sviram instrument

at the age of 52.

u 52. godini.

Or I tell myself I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child.

Ili kad kažem da nemam šta je potrebno da se staram o invalidnom detetu.

What we really should be saying

Zaista bi trebalo da govorimo:

is "I don't have the capacity to do those things today.

„Nemam snage da se tim stvarima bavim danas.

That doesn’t mean I won’t have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.”

To ne znači da neću imati snage da sve te stvari uradim sutra.”

So lesson number three is to be brave.

Pa je treća lekcija da budete hrabri.

I believe if you can do these three things,

Verujem da ako možete da radite ove tri stvari,

if you can stay curious,

ako možete da ostanete radoznali,

you can practice humility and you can be brave,

praktikujete smernost i ako možete da budete hrabri,

then your future self will look back at you

onda će vaše buduće ja da se osvrne na vas

in 20 or 30 years --

za 20 ili 30 godina -

will look back,

osvrnuće se,

not with resentment or bewilderment,

ne sa prezirom i zbunjenošću,

but will look back at you and say:

već će da se osvrne na vas i kaže:

"Thank you."

„Hvala.”

(Applause)

(Aplauz)