You Don’t Actually Know What Your Future Self Wants | Shankar Vedantam | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

When I was 12 years old,

我十二歲那年，

I fractured my foot playing soccer.

我在踢足球時受傷，腳骨折了。

I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night,

那晚回到家，我沒有告訴爸媽，

because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie,

因為隔天，

我爸爸要帶我去看電影，

a soccer movie.

是部足球電影。

I worried that if I told my parents about the foot,

我擔心如果我告訴 我父母我的腳怎麼了，

they would take me to see a doctor.

他們會帶我去看醫生。

I didn't want to see a doctor,

我不想看醫生，

I wanted to see the movie.

我想看電影。

The next morning, my dad goes,

隔天早上，我爸爸說：

"It's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater."

「外頭天氣真好， 我們不如走去戲院吧。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It was a mile away.

戲院在一哩外。

As we go, he says,

路上，他說：「你怎麼跛腳了？」

"Why are you limping?"

I tell him I have something in my shoe.

我說我鞋子裡有東西。

The movie was spectacular.

電影很棒。

It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars,

內容講到一些最偉大的 足球明星，偉大的巴西球員。

great Brazilian players.

I was ecstatic.

我欣喜若狂。

At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot;

電影結束時，我告訴 我爸爸我的腳受傷了；

he took me to see an orthopedic doctor,

他帶我去看整形外科醫生，

醫生把我的腳上了石膏， 三週後才拆掉。

who put my foot in a cast for three weeks.

I tell you the story today, because four decades later,

今天我告訴各位這個故事， 是因為四十年後，

I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.

我不認為我自己還是個足球迷。

Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football.

現今，我對運動的迷戀 已經轉變成另一種足球。

Now my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible.

十二歲的我不僅會覺得 這種轉變是無法理解的，

My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal.

十二歲的我會將之視為背叛。

Now you might say we all change from the time we are 12,

你可能會說大家都和十二歲時 不一樣，所以讓我快轉十年。

so let me fast-forward a decade.

When I was 22,

我二十二歲時，

I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India.

我在南印度擔任新創電子工程師。

I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States,

我完全不知道三十年後 我會住在美國當記者，

that I would be a journalist,

and that I would be the host of a podcast called "Hidden Brain."

還是《Hidden Brain》 播客節目的主持人。

It's a show about human behavior

節目的內容是

人類行為以及如何將心理科學 應用到我們的生活中。

and how to apply psychological science to our lives.

Now we didn’t have podcasts when I graduated from college.

我大學畢業時還沒有播客這種東西。

We didn’t walk around with smartphones in our pockets.

沒有智慧手機可以 放在口袋裡帶著到處走。

So my future was not just unknown;

我的未來不僅是未知的；

it was unknowable.

還是不可能知道的。

All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years,

我們大家都見到過去 三年的狀況，這段時間我們

as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic.

慢慢試圖從新冠肺炎疫情中恢復。

如果我們想想在三年前， 在疫情之前的自己，

If we think about the people we used to be three years ago, before the pandemic,

we can see how we have changed.

可以看到我們如何改變。

We can see how anxiety and isolation

我們可以看到我們生命中、

and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods,

生活中的焦慮、孤立、混亂，

how this has changed us, changed our outlook,

看到這一切如何改變我們， 改變我們的看法和觀點。

changed our perspective.

But there is a paradox here,

但這裡有個自相矛盾之處， 那就是，當我們回頭看，

and the paradox is when we look backwards,

we can see enormous changes in who we have become.

可以看到我們變成怎樣的人 以及這巨大的改變。

But when we look forwards,

但當我們向前看，

we tend to imagine that we're going to be the same people in the future.

我們傾向會想像我們在未來 也是和現在一樣的人。

Now sure, we imagine the world is going to be different.

的確，我們會想像世界 將變得不一樣，我們知道

We know what AI and climate change

人工智慧和氣候變遷意味著 世界會變得很不一樣。

is going to mean for a very different world.

But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives,

但我們不會想像我們自己在未來

會有不同的觀點、 不同的見解、不同的偏好。

different views, different preferences in the future.

I call this the illusion of continuity.

我稱這個現象為連續性錯覺。

And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards,

我認為發生的原因之一 是當我們回頭看時，

the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear.

現在的自己和先前的自己 會有很清楚的對比。

We can see it so clearly that we have become different people.

我們可以清楚看見 我們變成了不一樣的人。

When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older,

當我們向前看時，

我們可以想像自己變得 老一點，白頭髮多一點，

a little grayer,

but we don't imagine, fundamentally,

但，基本上，我們 不會想像我們將來會有

that we're going to have a different outlook or perspective,

不同的看法或觀點， 會成為不一樣的人。

that we're going to be different people.

And so those changes seem more amorphous.

所以那些改變似乎就 比較不具體，難以想像。

I want to make the case to you today

今天我想跟各位說明 這種錯覺會造成重大的後果，

that this illusion has profound consequences

不只是我們是否會變成 足球員或播客節目主持人，

not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts,

but for matters involving life and death.

還攸關生死。

Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinka.

容我向各位介紹約翰 和史蒂芬妮‧里卡。

We did a story about them for "Hidden Brain" some years ago.

幾年前，《Hidden Brain》 做了他們的故事。

This photograph was taken in 1971, on their wedding day.

這張照片攝於 1971 年 他們結婚的日子。

John and Stephanie had just eloped,

約翰和史蒂芬妮剛私奔， 在麻州的劍橋市政廳結婚。

and gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts.

He was 22, she was 19.

他二十二歲，她十九歲。

John told me that after they got married,

約翰告訴我，

婚後他們到過全國許多 不同的地方，最終定居在

they traveled to different parts of the country.

They eventually settled in North Carolina.

北卡羅萊納州。

John became a high school basketball coach,

約翰成為高中籃球教練，

Stephanie became a nurse.

史蒂芬妮成為護理師。

And because they lived in a rural part of the state,

因為他們住在該州的鄉村地區，

she would often make house visits to patients.

她通常會出診，到病人的家中。

Many of the patients she saw were very sick.

她看的病人當中有許多都病得很重。

They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life.

他們已走到疾病末期， 生活品質非常低。

And when Stephanie came home from these visits,

史蒂芬妮出診完回家後， 通常都還在發抖。

she was often shaken.

And she would tell John,

她會告訴約翰：

"John, if I ever get a terminal illness,

「約翰，如果我得了末期疾病，

please do nothing to prolong my suffering.

請不要做任何事 來延長我受苦的時間。

I care more about quality of life than quantity of life.

我重視生活的品質勝於生活的長度。

In her more dramatic moments, she would say,

在她更情緒化的時候，會說： 「約翰，若我病得那麼重，

"John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me.

就射殺我吧，就射殺我吧。」

Just shoot me."

And John Rinka would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife,

而約翰‧里卡會很慈愛地 看著他健康的妻子，

and he would say,

他會說：

"OK, Steph. OK."

「好，史蔕芬妮，好。」

Fast-forward a couple of decades.

快轉幾十年。

In her late fifties, Stephanie begins to slur her words.

接近六十歲時，

史蒂芬妮開始說話含糊不清。

She goes to see a doctor, who runs some tests,

她去看醫生，醫生做了些檢測，

and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease.

她被診斷出漸凍症，

或稱葛雷克氏症。

He tells her it's fatal. It's incurable.

醫生告訴她，這種病 會致命且無法醫治。

And he tells her that a day is going to come

也告訴她，遲早有一天，

when she is no longer able to breathe on her own.

她會無法自己呼吸。

Stephanie, being Stephanie,

史蒂芬妮就是史蒂芬妮，決定 盡量享受人生的喜悅和樂趣，

decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can,

she spends time with friends and family.

她把時間留給朋友和家人。

As she gets sicker,

病情更嚴重時，

she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love.

她和約翰會把時間花在 他們兩人都愛的美麗海灘上。

But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe.

但，有一天，史蒂芬妮實際上

已經無法呼吸，上氣不接下氣， 約翰把她送到醫院去。

She's gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.

And a nurse at the hospital asked Stephanie,

醫院的護理師問史蒂芬妮，

"Mrs. Rinka, would you like us to put you on a ventilator?"

「里卡太太，你希望我們 幫你裝上呼吸器嗎？」

And Stephanie says yes.

史蒂芬妮說好。

John is flabbergasted.

約翰大吃一驚，他們 談這件事談了三十年，

They've been having this conversation for 30 years.

Surely that's not what Stephanie wants.

這肯定不是史蒂芬妮想要的。

He doesn't say anything.

他不發一語。

The next morning, he says,

隔天早上，他說：「史蒂芬妮，

"Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator,

昨天護理師問你要不要 裝呼吸器，你說好，

那真的是你想要的嗎？」

and you said yes,

is that really what you want?"

And Stephanie Rinka said yes.

史蒂芬妮‧里卡說，是的。

Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive,

你可能會認為，

若史蒂芬妮有預立 醫療照護事前指示，

if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious,

若她被送到醫院時已無意識，

if the nurse had asked John, "What is it your wife would want?"

若護理師問約翰： 「你的妻子會希望如何？」

John, without hesitation, would have said,

約翰會毫不猶豫地說：

"Of course she does not want to go on a ventilator.

「她當然不想裝呼吸器，

我們應該要想辦法盡可能 讓她舒服一點，讓她走時

We should figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible

so that she can die with dignity."

能不失尊嚴。」

But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum.

但，當然，這只解決了 法律上的難題。

It doesn't solve the ethical problem here.

並沒有解決這裡的倫理問題。

And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy,

這個倫理問題是， 史蒂芬妮三十九歲時，

她還很健康，

had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59,

無法真正設想五十九歲的史蒂芬妮

with a terminal illness, gasping for air,

在疾病末期，已經上氣不接下氣時，

would really want.

會真正想要怎麼做。

For the older Stephanie,

年長的史蒂芬妮可能會覺得 年輕的自己是個陌生人，

her younger self might as well have been a stranger.

試圖決定她生死的陌生人。

A stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her.

Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment;

多年來，哲學家都在談 一項思想實驗；

it’s sometimes called the “ship of Theseus”.

有時稱為「忒修斯之船」。

The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits,

偉大的戰士忒修斯 完成壯舉回來之後，

his ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial.

他的船被停放在海港當作紀念。

And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay,

數十年間，當船的零件 開始腐爛壞掉時，

and as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks.

出問題的船板就會被換新。

Until, eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus

直到最終，忒修斯之船的所有部分

was built from something new.

都被換成新的。

And philosophers, starting with Plato,

從柏拉圖開始，哲學家就一直在問：

have asked the question "If every part of the ship of Theseus is new,

「如果忒修斯之船的 每個部分都是新的，

is this still the ship of Theseus?"

它仍然是忒修斯之船嗎？」

You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus.

你我都是活生生的忒修斯之船。

Our cells turn over all the time.

我們的細胞時時刻刻都在翻新。

The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today.

十年前的你不是現在的你。

Biologically, you have become a different person.

就生物學來說， 你已經變成不同的人。

But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level.

但我相信在心理層面 所發生的狀況更深奧。

Because you could argue a ship is not just a collection of planks,

因為你可以主張，船並非 只是一堆船板的組合，

a body is not just a collection of cells.

身體不只是一堆細胞的組合。

It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship.

是這些船板的組織方式 讓這艘船是這艘船。

It's the organization of the cells that make the body.

細胞的組織方式 讓這個身體是這個身體。

If you preserve the organization,

如果你保留了組織方式， 就算換掉船板或細胞，

even if you swap planks or cells in and out,

you still have the ship, you still have the same body.

還是保有同一艘船，同一個身體。

But at a psychological level,

但在心理層面，

each new layer that's put down

每新舖上的一層，

is not identical to the one that came before it.

都和它的前身不一樣。

The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about

我們常常聽到大腦的可塑性，

means that, on an ongoing basis,

它意味著，在持續不斷的基礎上，

you are constantly becoming a new person.

你經常在變成一個新的人。

This has profound consequences for so many aspects of our lives.

這在我們生活的許多面向上 都有很重大的後果。

You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar

我有錯覺，認為

想要當足球明星的十二歲尚卡爾、

who wanted to be a soccer star,

and 52-year-old Shankar who is the podcast host

當播客節目主持人的 五十二歲尚卡爾，

and 82-year-old Shankar,

以及希望有一天能住在美麗 海灘上的八十二歲的尚卡爾，

who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach,

that these are all the same person.

認為這些都是同一個人。

Is that really true?

真的是這樣嗎？

Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day,

咱們把哲學問題留到其他時候再談，

and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges

讓我告訴各位這個問題的 一些實際難題挑戰。

of this problem.

When we make promises to other people,

當我們向他人許下承諾，

when we promise to love someone till death do us part,

當我們保證對某人的愛是至死不渝，

we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep.

我們所做的承諾，將來 是要由陌生人來實踐。

Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes.

我們未來的自己

可能不會認同我們 現在的見解、觀點、希望。

When we lock people up and throw away the key,

當我們把人關起來並把鑰匙丟掉，

it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years.

三十年後，不僅是 被我們監禁的人會不同。

We are going to be different 30 years from now.

三十年後，我們也會不同。

Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today.

我們對於懲罰、報復的需求

可能不會和現今一樣。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

When we pass laws,

當我們通過法律時，

we often do so with an intent of making a better country,

我們的意圖通常是要 讓國家更好，要改善國家。

improving our country.

But any country that's been around for a few decades

但任何國家，只要已經 有幾十年歷史，

has numerous laws on the books

都會有一些既有法律 是在制訂時完全合理——

that made perfect sense when they were crafted --

in fact, that were seen as enlightened when they were crafted --

事實上，在制訂時 還被視為是很明智的——

and today, they seem antiquated or absurd, or even unconscionable.

現今，它們卻似乎過時了， 或很荒唐，或甚至無理。

And all of these examples stem from the same problem,

所有這些例子都源自於 同樣的問題，就是我們想像

which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history.

我們代表歷史的終點。

That the future is only going to be more of the same.

未來只會和現在差不多。

I have three pieces of advice

對於要如何對付這個 棘手問題，我有三項建議。

on how to wrestle with this wicked problem.

And it is a wicked problem,

說這個問題很棘手是因為

because all of us spend so much of our lives

我們所有人都把大半人生花在 試圖讓未來的自己快樂。

trying to make our future selves happy.

We don't stop to ask,

我們不會停下來問： 「有沒有可能二、三十年後

"Is it possible that in 20 or 30 years,

我們未來的自己會回頭看我們，

our future selves are going to look back at us

帶著困惑，帶著憤怒。

with bewilderment, with resentment.

That our future selves will ask us,

我們未來的自己可能會問我們：

"What made you possibly think that that is what I would want?"

「到底是什麼讓你覺得， 這會是我想要的？」

The first piece of advice I have

我的第一建議

is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person

就是如果你能接受你在 三十年後會變成不同的人，

in 30 years' time,

你就應該扮演主動的角色， 打造你要變成的人。

you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become.

You should be the curator of your future self.

你應該要當未來自己的策劃人， 你應該要當未來自己的建築師，

You should be the architect of your future self.

But what does that mean?

但，那是什麼意思？

Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family.

花時間和家人朋友以外的人相處。

Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits

花時間去做副業和專業的消遣，

that are not just what you do regularly.

不只是你平常做的那些。

Expand your horizons,

拓展你的視野，

because you're going to become someone different,

因為你會變成不同的人，

you might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be.

你不如就來主導決定 那個人會是什麼樣的。

So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.

所以，第一個建議是保持好奇心。

Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums,

第二，

當我們發表聲明，

不論是在社群媒體、政治論壇， 或甚至晚餐派對上，

or at dinner parties,

let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us

心中要謹記，

和我們意見相佐的人當中，

are our own future selves.

包括我們未來的自己。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So when we express views with great certitude and confidence,

所以當我們帶著肯定 和信心表述觀點時，

let's remember to add a touch of humility.

也要記得加上一點謙遜。

This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level --

順道一提，不僅在個人層面 是如此，在組織層面也是。

it's also true at an organizational level.

一陣子之前，我和一位 很棒的女子交談。

I was speaking, some time ago, with this young, wonderful woman.

She had just reached a position of authority at her organization,

她在她的組織中剛剛 爬上一個有權力的位子，

and she had many idealistic ideas

她有一大堆理想化的點子， 想要改變她的組織。

of how she wanted to change her organization.

And she asked me, "How do we make these changes

她問我：「我們要如何做這些改變，

so that in the future,

才能確保在未來

no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made?"

不會有人跑來把我所做的 改變又都改回去？」

And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief,

這是非常人性的衝動，

但它同樣也源自於相信 我們對歷史的觀點

that our perspective on history is the final word.

就是定論，不會再變了。

And quite simply, this is wrong.

這很明白就是錯的。

Three.

第三，

I've given you a number of ways

我已經提到在好幾個面向上 我們未來的自己可能會變得

in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today.

比現今的我們更軟弱、脆弱。

And that is true, that is part of the story.

那是真的，那是實情的一部分。

But it is only a part of the story.

但，那只是實情的一部分。

Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths

我們未來的自己也會擁有現今的我們

and wisdom that we do not possess today.

所沒有的能力、長處，和智慧。

So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate,

所以，當機會到我們面前 而我們感到猶豫時，

when I tell myself, "I don't think I have it in me

當我告訴自己： 「我不覺得我有本事可以

to quit my job and start my own company,"

辭掉我的工作，自己創業。」

or I tell myself I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument

或者我告訴自己，我沒有本事可以

在五十二歲時學一種樂器。

at the age of 52.

Or I tell myself I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child.

或者我告訴自己，我沒有本事 可以照顧一個身障兒童。

What we really should be saying

我們真正應該說的

is "I don't have the capacity to do those things today.

是「現在我還沒有能力 可以做到這些事。

That doesn’t mean I won’t have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.”

那不表示將來我不會 有能力做到這些事。」

So lesson number three is to be brave.

所以，第三課是要勇敢。

I believe if you can do these three things,

我相信，如果你能做到這三點，

if you can stay curious,

如果你能保持好奇心，

you can practice humility and you can be brave,

你能練習謙遜，你能勇敢起來，

then your future self will look back at you

那麼，二、三十年後， 未來的你會回頭看此時的你——

in 20 or 30 years --

will look back,

回頭看時不會帶著憤怒或困惑，

not with resentment or bewilderment,

but will look back at you and say:

而是會回頭看此時的你，說：

"Thank you."

「謝謝你。」

(Applause)

（掌聲）