You Don’t Actually Know What Your Future Self Wants | Shankar Vedantam | TED

翻译人员: Shuhui Huang 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

When I was 12 years old,

我十二岁的时候，

I fractured my foot playing soccer.

踢足球摔断了脚。

I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night,

那天晚上回家时 我没有告诉父母，

because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie,

因为第二天， 我爸爸要带我去看电影，

a soccer movie.

一部足球电影。

I worried that if I told my parents about the foot,

我怕如果我把脚的事告诉父母，

they would take me to see a doctor.

他们会带我去看医生。

I didn't want to see a doctor,

可我不想看医生啊，

I wanted to see the movie.

我想看的是电影。

The next morning, my dad goes,

第二天早上， 我爸说，

"It's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater."

“天气不错。 咱们走着去电影院吧。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It was a mile away.

那可是一英里的路。

As we go, he says,

我们在路上走着，他就问：

"Why are you limping?"

“你怎么瘸了？”

I tell him I have something in my shoe.

我告诉他，是我鞋子里有东西。

The movie was spectacular.

那部电影非常好看。

It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars,

讲述了一些足球界的巨星，

great Brazilian players.

几位优秀的巴西球员们的故事。

I was ecstatic.

我当时激动坏了。

At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot;

电影结束后， 我告诉了我爸爸脚的事。

he took me to see an orthopedic doctor,

他带我去看了骨科医生，

who put my foot in a cast for three weeks.

医生给我的脚打了三个礼拜的石膏。

I tell you the story today, because four decades later,

我今天给你们讲这个故事， 是因为四十年后，

I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.

我已经不再是一个足球粉丝了。

Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football.

如今，我的体育兴趣已经转向了 另一种足球（美式足球）。

Now my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible.

12 岁的我 不仅会觉得无法理解。

My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal.

12 岁的我 会把这视作背叛。

Now you might say we all change from the time we are 12,

你可能会说， 我们都和 12 岁的时候不一样了。

so let me fast-forward a decade.

那让我快进个十年。

When I was 22,

我 22 岁的时候，

I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India.

我是印度南部 一名刚毕业的电子工程师。

I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States,

我根本不知道三十年后， 我会住在美国，

that I would be a journalist,

成为一位记者，

and that I would be the host of a podcast called "Hidden Brain."

并成为播客 《隐秘的大脑》的主持人。

It's a show about human behavior

这是一个有关人类行为和

and how to apply psychological science to our lives.

如何把心理学应用到生活中的播客。

Now we didn’t have podcasts when I graduated from college.

我毕业的那时候， 我们都还没有播客。

We didn’t walk around with smartphones in our pockets.

智能手机也还没有普及。

So my future was not just unknown;

所以我的未来不仅仅是未知；

it was unknowable.

而是“不可知”。

All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years,

在过去的三年里，在我们慢慢尝试 摆脱新冠疫情的过程中，

as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic.

也都见识到了这点。

If we think about the people we used to be three years ago, before the pandemic,

如果我们回想三年前， 疫情前的自己，

we can see how we have changed.

我们都能看得出自己的变化。

We can see how anxiety and isolation

我们可以看到焦虑、孤独、

and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods,

生活和生计的动荡，

how this has changed us, changed our outlook,

是如何改变我们、我们的看法，

changed our perspective.

和思想的。

But there is a paradox here,

但这里有一个悖论，

and the paradox is when we look backwards,

当我们回看过去，

we can see enormous changes in who we have become.

我们能看出自身的巨大变化。

But when we look forwards,

但当我们展望未来，

we tend to imagine that we're going to be the same people in the future.

我们却容易把未来的自己 想作和现在一样。

Now sure, we imagine the world is going to be different.

当然，我们想象的世界是不同的。

We know what AI and climate change

人工智能和气候变化

is going to mean for a very different world.

会让世界都变得不一样。

But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives,

但我们不会想象我们在未来 会有不同的观点、

different views, different preferences in the future.

看法或喜好。

I call this the illusion of continuity.

我把这个现象 叫做“连续性错觉”。

And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards,

我认为发生这种情况的一个原因是， 当我们回顾过去时，

the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear.

我们以前的自己 和今天的自己会形成鲜明对比。

We can see it so clearly that we have become different people.

我们可以明显看到， 我们成为了不同的人。

When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older,

当我们展望未来时， 我们会想象自己老了一点、

a little grayer,

头发灰了一点，

but we don't imagine, fundamentally,

但我们不会，从根本上想象

that we're going to have a different outlook or perspective,

我们会有不同的想法或观点，

that we're going to be different people.

成为不同的人。

And so those changes seem more amorphous.

因此， 这些变化似乎显得更加虚无缥缈。

I want to make the case to you today

今天我想向你们证明，

that this illusion has profound consequences

这种错觉不仅对我们 成为足球运动员或者播客主持人，

not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts,

but for matters involving life and death.

而且对涉及生死的问题 都会造成深远的影响。

Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinka.

让我向你介绍一下约翰和 斯蒂芬妮·林卡（Stephanie Rinka）。

We did a story about them for "Hidden Brain" some years ago.

几年前，我们在《隐秘的大脑》上 讲过他们的故事。

This photograph was taken in 1971, on their wedding day.

这张照片是在 1971 年， 他们结婚当日拍的。

John and Stephanie had just eloped,

约翰和斯蒂芬妮当时刚刚私奔，

and gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts.

并在马萨诸塞州的 剑桥市政厅结了婚。

He was 22, she was 19.

他年方 22， 而她 19 岁。

John told me that after they got married,

约翰告诉我，他们俩结婚后，

they traveled to different parts of the country.

一起到全国各地旅游。

They eventually settled in North Carolina.

最后在北卡罗来纳州定居。

John became a high school basketball coach,

约翰成为了高中篮球教练，

Stephanie became a nurse.

斯特芬妮成为了一名护士。

And because they lived in a rural part of the state,

因为他们住在该州的农村地区，

she would often make house visits to patients.

她会经常上门拜访病人。

Many of the patients she saw were very sick.

她看过的许多病人都病得很重。

They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life.

他们身患绝症， 生活质量极低。

And when Stephanie came home from these visits,

当斯蒂芬妮结束这些家访回家时，

she was often shaken.

经常表露出焦虑不安的样子。

And she would tell John,

她会告诉约翰，

"John, if I ever get a terminal illness,

“约翰，如果我哪天身患绝症，

please do nothing to prolong my suffering.

请一定不要延长我的痛苦。

I care more about quality of life than quantity of life.

我更关注生命的质量， 而不是长度。”

In her more dramatic moments, she would say,

有时候她会更激烈地说，

"John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me.

“约翰，如果我哪天病重成那样， 你就一枪打死我。

Just shoot me."

一枪打死我。”

And John Rinka would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife,

而约翰·林卡则会充满爱意地 看着他的妻子，他那健康的妻子，

and he would say,

然后说，

"OK, Steph. OK."

“好的，斯蒂芬，好的。”

Fast-forward a couple of decades.

快进到几十年后。

In her late fifties, Stephanie begins to slur her words.

在斯特芬妮五十多岁时， 她开始口齿不清。

She goes to see a doctor, who runs some tests,

她看了医生，做了些检查，

and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease.

医生诊断出她患有肌萎缩侧索硬化症， 即卢伽雷氏病。

He tells her it's fatal. It's incurable.

他告诉她这是致命的。 无法治愈。

And he tells her that a day is going to come

他告诉她，会有这么一天，

when she is no longer able to breathe on her own.

她将无法自主呼吸。

Stephanie, being Stephanie,

斯蒂芬妮，以她的性格，

decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can,

决定尽可能多地 从生活中汲取快乐，

she spends time with friends and family.

她与朋友和家人一起度过时光。

As she gets sicker,

她的病更重之后，

she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love.

她和约翰在一个 他们都很喜欢的沙滩上过着日子。

But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe.

但终究还是有一天， 斯蒂芬妮确实无法呼吸了。

She's gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.

她几乎喘不过气来， 约翰带她去了医院。

And a nurse at the hospital asked Stephanie,

医院的一位护士问斯蒂芬妮，

"Mrs. Rinka, would you like us to put you on a ventilator?"

“林卡夫人， 要不要我们给你装上呼吸机？”

And Stephanie says yes.

斯蒂芬妮说要。

John is flabbergasted.

约翰目瞪口呆。

They've been having this conversation for 30 years.

这同一段对话 他们已经进行了 30 年。

Surely that's not what Stephanie wants.

这绝对不是斯特芬妮想要的。

He doesn't say anything.

他什么都没说。

The next morning, he says,

第二天早上，他说，

"Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator,

“斯蒂芬， 护士昨天问你是否要使用呼吸机时，

你说了要，

and you said yes,

这是你真的想要的吗？”

is that really what you want?"

And Stephanie Rinka said yes.

斯特芬妮·林卡说是的。

Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive,

现在，你可能会争辩说， 如果斯蒂芬妮写了一份预先指示，

if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious,

如果斯蒂芬妮 被送入医院时昏迷不醒，

if the nurse had asked John, "What is it your wife would want?"

如果护士问的是约翰， “你妻子会想要什么？”

John, without hesitation, would have said,

约翰会毫不犹豫地说，

"Of course she does not want to go on a ventilator.

“她当然不想上呼吸机，

We should figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible

我们应该想办法让她尽可能舒服，

so that she can die with dignity."

让她有尊严地死去。”

But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum.

但当然， 这只能解决法律上的难题。

It doesn't solve the ethical problem here.

它没有解决此处的道德问题。

And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy,

道德问题是斯蒂芬妮在 39 岁时， 因为她很健康，

had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59,

她对 59 岁的 身患重症的斯特芬妮，

with a terminal illness, gasping for air,

对她在难以呼吸的时候 想要的东西

would really want.

没有真正的概念。

For the older Stephanie,

对于年长的斯特芬妮来说，

her younger self might as well have been a stranger.

年轻的她 也许就像一个陌生人一样。

A stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her.

一个想要帮她做生死决策的陌生人。

Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment;

哲学家们多年来 一直在讨论的一个思想实验，

it’s sometimes called the “ship of Theseus”.

有时候被叫做“忒修斯之船”。

The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits,

伟大的战士忒修斯功成身退，

his ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial.

他的船停泊在港口作为一个纪念碑。

And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay,

几十年来， 船的某些部分开始腐烂

and as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks.

随着这种情况的发生， 木板被新木板所取代。

Until, eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus

直到最后，忒修斯之船的每一部分

was built from something new.

都是用新东西造的。

And philosophers, starting with Plato,

于是从柏拉图开始， 哲学家们提出了

have asked the question "If every part of the ship of Theseus is new,

这样一个问题： “如果忒修斯之船的每部分都是新的，

is this still the ship of Theseus?"

那它还是忒修斯之船吗？”

You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus.

你我都是忒修斯之船 活生生的例子。

Our cells turn over all the time.

我们的细胞一直在翻新。

The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today.

10 年前的你不是今天的你。

Biologically, you have become a different person.

在生物学上， 你已经变成了一个不同的人。

But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level.

但我相信，更深层次的东西 发生在心理层面。

Because you could argue a ship is not just a collection of planks,

因为你可以争辩说， 一艘船不仅仅是一堆木板，

a body is not just a collection of cells.

一个身体也不仅仅是一堆细胞。

It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship.

是木板的整体组成 造就了这艘船。

It's the organization of the cells that make the body.

也是细胞的整体组成 构成了身体。

If you preserve the organization,

如果你把整体保留下来，

even if you swap planks or cells in and out,

即使你把木板或细胞换进换出，

you still have the ship, you still have the same body.

你有的还是同一艘船， 你也仍然有相同的身体。

But at a psychological level,

但在心理层面上，

each new layer that's put down

新放上去的每一层

is not identical to the one that came before it.

都和之前那层不一样。

The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about

我们都听说过 大脑出了名的可塑性，

means that, on an ongoing basis,

那意味着，你一直都在

you are constantly becoming a new person.

持续成为一个新的人。

This has profound consequences for so many aspects of our lives.

这对我们生活的方方面面 都有着深远的意义。

You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar

我有一个错觉，那就是

who wanted to be a soccer star,

想成为足球明星的 12 岁的尚卡尔（Shankar），

and 52-year-old Shankar who is the podcast host

和 52 岁的播客主持人尚卡尔，

and 82-year-old Shankar,

和 82 岁的，

who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach,

但愿是已经生活在一个 美丽沙滩上的尚卡尔，

that these are all the same person.

都是同一个人。

Is that really true?

这是真的吗？

Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day,

让我们改天再聊哲学问题，

and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges

让我来告诉你一些 这个问题的

of this problem.

实际挑战。

When we make promises to other people,

当我们向其他人许下诺言，

when we promise to love someone till death do us part,

当我们许诺 对某人的爱至死不渝，

we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep.

我们是在许下一个 让一个陌生人去信守的诺言。

Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes.

我们未来的自己可能 不会同意我们的观点、看法和希望。

When we lock people up and throw away the key,

当我们把人关起来扔掉钥匙时，

it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years.

不仅仅是我们关押的人 在 30 年后会有所不同。

We are going to be different 30 years from now.

30 年后，我们自己也会不一样。

Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today.

我们对复仇的需要可能与今天不同。

(Applause)

（掌声）

When we pass laws,

当我们通过法律时，

we often do so with an intent of making a better country,

我们这样做的目的 往往是建设一个更好的国家，

improving our country.

去改善我们的国家。

But any country that's been around for a few decades

但是任何一个 已经存在了几十年的国家

has numerous laws on the books

都有大量的法律法规，

that made perfect sense when they were crafted --

这些在制定时非常合理的法律——

in fact, that were seen as enlightened when they were crafted --

事实上，甚至是 被认为是很有远见的法律——

and today, they seem antiquated or absurd, or even unconscionable.

而如今，它们似乎显得 过时或荒谬，甚至不合情理。

And all of these examples stem from the same problem,

这些例子都源于同一个问题，

which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history.

那就是我们认为 自己代表了历史的终结。

That the future is only going to be more of the same.

认为未来只会是一样的。

I have three pieces of advice

关于如何解决这个棘手的问题，

on how to wrestle with this wicked problem.

我有三条建议。

And it is a wicked problem,

这确实是一个棘手的问题，

because all of us spend so much of our lives

因为我们每天都过着

trying to make our future selves happy.

想要让未来的自己快乐的日子。

We don't stop to ask,

我们却不会停下来问一问，

"Is it possible that in 20 or 30 years,

“有没有可能， 20 或 30 年之后，

our future selves are going to look back at us

我们未来的自己， 会带着困惑和怨恨

with bewilderment, with resentment.

来看着当初的我们。”

That our future selves will ask us,

那个未来的自己会问，

"What made you possibly think that that is what I would want?"

“是什么让你认为 这就是我想要的？”

The first piece of advice I have

我的第一条建议是，

is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person

如果你接受 30 年后 你将成为另一个人的这一想法，

in 30 years' time,

you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become.

你应该发挥积极作用， 塑造那个你将要成为的人。

You should be the curator of your future self.

你应该成为未来自己的策展人。

You should be the architect of your future self.

你应该成为未来自己的建筑师。

But what does that mean?

这是什么意思呢？

Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family.

花时间与您的朋友家人以外的人相处。

Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits

把时间花在业余爱好和专业追求上，

that are not just what you do regularly.

而不仅仅是那些 你平时都在做的日常事务。

Expand your horizons,

扩大你的视野，

because you're going to become someone different,

因为你将成为不同的人，

you might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be.

不妨由你来决定 那个人是什么样的。

So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.

所以第一个建议是保持好奇心。

Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums,

其次，当我们在社交媒体、政治论坛

or at dinner parties,

或晚餐聚会上高谈阔论时，

let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us

让我们记住， 那些可能与我们有分歧的人

are our own future selves.

可能就是未来的我们自己。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So when we express views with great certitude and confidence,

因此， 当我们非常自信地表达观点时，

let's remember to add a touch of humility.

请记住要谦逊一点。

This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level --

对了， 不仅在个人层面上该是这样的——

it's also true at an organizational level.

在组织层面上也是如此。

I was speaking, some time ago, with this young, wonderful woman.

不久前，我在和一位年轻、 出色的女性交谈。

She had just reached a position of authority at her organization,

她刚刚在她的组织中 开始担任权威职务，

and she had many idealistic ideas

对于如何改变组织，

of how she wanted to change her organization.

她有不少很理想化的主意。

And she asked me, "How do we make these changes

她问我， “我们要如何推进这些改革，

so that in the future,

以便将来

no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made?"

没有人会来推翻我所推行的改变？”

And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief,

这是一种非常符合人性的冲动， 但它源于同样的看法，

that our perspective on history is the final word.

即我们对历史的观点是不会改变的。

And quite simply, this is wrong.

很简单，这是错误的。

Three.

第三。

I've given you a number of ways

我已经展示了好几个

in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today.

我们未来的自己 会比今天更脆弱的可能性。

And that is true, that is part of the story.

这是真的， 这是故事的一部分。

But it is only a part of the story.

但这只是故事的一部分。

Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths

我们未来的自己也将拥有

and wisdom that we do not possess today.

我们今天所不具备的 能力、力量和智慧。

So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate,

所以当我们面对机会而犹豫不决时，

when I tell myself, "I don't think I have it in me

当我告诉自己， “我不认为我有能力辞去工作

to quit my job and start my own company,"

并创办自己的公司，”

or I tell myself I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument

或是当我告诉自己，

我不具备到了 52 岁 还学习乐器的能力。

at the age of 52.

Or I tell myself I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child.

或者当我告诉自己， 我没有能力照顾残疾儿童。

What we really should be saying

我们真正应该说的是

is "I don't have the capacity to do those things today.

“我今天没有能力做那些事情。

That doesn’t mean I won’t have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.”

那并不意味着 我明天没有能力做那些事情。”

So lesson number three is to be brave.

所以第三课，是要勇敢。

I believe if you can do these three things,

我相信如果你能做到这三件事，

if you can stay curious,

如果你能保持好奇心，

you can practice humility and you can be brave,

保持谦逊，并且勇敢，

then your future self will look back at you

那未来的你自己，

in 20 or 30 years --

在 20 或 30 年之后——

will look back,

回顾时不会带着怨恨或困惑，

not with resentment or bewilderment,

but will look back at you and say:

而是会回头看着你说：

"Thank you."

“谢谢你。”

(Applause)

（掌声）