Math can help uncover cancer's secrets | Irina Kareva

74,796 views ใƒป 2018-04-25

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ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืชืจื’ื•ื: hila scherba ืขืจื™ื›ื”: Roni Ravia
00:12
I am a translator.
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ืื ื™ ืžืชืจื’ืžืช.
00:14
I translate from biology into mathematics
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ืื ื™ ืžืชืจื’ืžืช ืžื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืœืžืชืžื˜ื™ืงื”
00:17
and vice versa.
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ื•ื‘ื—ื–ืจื”.
00:19
I write mathematical models
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ืื ื™ ื›ื•ืชื‘ืช ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื
00:21
which, in my case, are systems of differential equations,
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ืฉื”ื, ื‘ืžืงืจื” ืฉืœื™, ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช ื“ื™ืคืจื ืฆื™ืืœื™ื•ืช,
00:24
to describe biological mechanisms,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืชืืจ ืžื ื’ื ื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื™ื,
00:26
such as cell growth.
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ื›ืžื• ื’ื“ื™ืœืช ืชืื™ื.
00:28
Essentially, it works like this.
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ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ, ื–ื” ืขื•ื‘ื“ ื›ืš.
00:30
First, I identify the key elements
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ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ, ืื ื™ ืžื–ื”ื” ืืช ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ ื”ืžืคืชื—
00:33
that I believe may be driving behavior over time
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ืฉืื ื™ ืžืืžื™ื ื” ืฉืื•ืœื™ ืžื ื™ืขื™ื ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ืœืื•ืจืš ื–ืžืŸ
00:35
of a particular mechanism.
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ืฉืœ ืžื ื’ื ื•ืŸ ืžืกื•ื™ื.
00:38
Then, I formulate assumptions
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ืื–, ืื ื™ ืžื ืกื—ืช ื”ื ื—ื•ืช
00:40
about how these elements interact with each other
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ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื• ื”ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ื”ืืœื• ืžืชืงืฉืจื™ื ืื—ื“ ืขื ื”ืฉื ื™
00:43
and with their environment.
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ื•ืขื ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื”ื.
00:44
It may look something like this.
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ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ืจืื•ืช ืงืฆืช ื›ืžื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ื–ื”.
00:46
Then, I translate these assumptions into equations,
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ืœืื—ืจ ืžื›ืŸ, ืื ื™ ืžืชืจื’ืžืช ืืช ื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ืœืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช,
00:50
which may look something like this.
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœื”ื™ืจืื•ืช ื›ืžื• ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ื–ื”.
00:53
Finally, I analyze my equations
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ื‘ืกื•ืคื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ, ืื ื™ ืžื ืชื—ืช ืืช ื”ืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช ืฉืœื™
00:55
and translate the results back into the language of biology.
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ื•ืžืชืจื’ืžืช ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื‘ื—ื–ืจื” ืœืฉืคืช ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
01:00
A key aspect of mathematical modeling
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ื”ื™ื‘ื˜ ืžืคืชื— ืฉืœ ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืžื•ื“ืœ ืžืชืžื˜ื™
01:02
is that we, as modelers, do not think about what things are;
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืื ื—ื ื•, ืžืขืฆื‘ื™ ื”ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื, ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ื˜ื™ื‘ื ืฉืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื;
01:06
we think about what they do.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืžื” ื”ื ืขื•ืฉื™ื.
01:08
We think about relationships between individuals,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื™ื—ืกื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ืคืจื˜ื™ื,
01:10
whether they be cells, animals or people,
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ื”ื ืชืื™ื, ื‘ืขืœื™ ื—ื™ื™ื ืื• ืื ืฉื™ื,
01:13
and how they interact with each other and with their environment.
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ื•ืื™ืš ื”ื ืžืชืงืฉืจื™ื ืื—ื“ ืขื ื”ืฉื ื™ ื•ืขื ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื”ื.
01:17
Let me give you an example.
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ืืชืŸ ืœื›ื ื“ื•ื’ืžื.
01:19
What do foxes and immune cells have in common?
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ืžื” ืžืฉื•ืชืฃ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉื•ืขืœื™ื ืœืชืื™ื ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื?
01:24
They're both predators,
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ืฉื ื™ื”ื ื˜ื•ืจืคื™ื,
01:26
except foxes feed on rabbits,
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ืจืง ืฉืฉื•ืขืœื™ื ื ื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื ืžืืจื ื‘ื•ืช,
01:29
and immune cells feed on invaders, such as cancer cells.
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ื•ืชืื™ื ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื ื ื™ื–ื•ื ื™ื ืžืคื•ืœืฉื™ื, ื›ื’ื•ืŸ ืชืื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
01:33
But from a mathematical point of view,
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื ืงื•ื“ืช ืžื‘ื˜ ืžืชืžื˜ื™ืช,
01:35
a qualitatively same system of predator-prey type equations
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ืื•ืชื” ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช, ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ืื™ื›ื•ืชื™ืช, ืฉืœ ืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ ื˜ื•ืจืฃ-ื˜ืจืฃ
01:39
will describe interactions between foxes and rabbits
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ืชืชืืจ ื™ื—ืกื™ ื’ื•ืžืœื™ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉื•ืขืœื™ื ื•ืืจื ื‘ื•ืช
01:43
and cancer and immune cells.
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ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ืชืื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื•ืชืื™ื ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื.
01:45
Predator-prey type systems have been studied extensively
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ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ ื˜ื•ืจืฃ-ื˜ืจืฃ ื ืœืžื“ื• ื‘ื”ืจื—ื‘ื”
01:48
in scientific literature,
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ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืžื“ืขื™ืช,
01:49
describing interactions of two populations,
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ื•ืžืชืืจื•ืช ื™ื—ืกื™ ื’ื•ืžืœื™ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉืชื™ ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื•ืช,
01:52
where survival of one depends on consuming the other.
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ืฉื‘ื”ื ื”ื”ื™ืฉืจื“ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื—ืช ืชืœื•ื™ื” ื‘ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืื—ืจ.
01:55
And these same equations provide a framework
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ื•ืื•ืชืŸ ื”ืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช ืžื”ื•ื•ืช ืžืกื’ืจืช
01:58
for understanding cancer-immune interactions,
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ืœื”ื‘ื ื” ืฉืœ ื™ื—ืกื™ ื’ื•ืžืœื™ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื•ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ,
02:00
where cancer is the prey,
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ืฉื‘ื”ื ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื”ื˜ืจืฃ,
02:02
and the immune system is the predator.
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ื•ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ ื”ื™ื ื”ื˜ื•ืจืฃ.
02:04
And the prey employs all sorts of tricks to prevent the predator from killing it,
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ื•ื”ื˜ืจืฃ ืžืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื›ืœ ืžื™ื ื™ ืชื›ืกื™ืกื™ื ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœืžื ื•ืข ืžื”ื˜ื•ืจืฃ ืœื”ืจื•ื’ ืื•ืชื•,
02:08
ranging from camouflaging itself
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ืฉื ืขื™ื ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืกื•ื•ืื”
02:10
to stealing the predator's food.
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ืœื’ื ื™ื‘ืช ื”ืื•ื›ืœ ืฉืœ ื”ื˜ืจืฃ.
02:13
This can have some very interesting implications.
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ืœื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื”ืฉืœื›ื•ืช ืžืื•ื“ ืžืขื ื™ื™ื ื•ืช.
02:15
For example, despite enormous successes in the field of immunotherapy,
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ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื, ืœืžืจื•ืช ื”ืฆืœื—ื•ืช ืžื–ื”ื™ืจื•ืช ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ืื™ืžื•ื ื•ืชืจืคื™ื”,
02:20
there still remains somewhat limited efficacy
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ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ืฉ ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœืช ืœืžื“ื™
02:23
when it comes solid tumors.
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ื›ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœื™ื ืžื•ืฆืงื™ื.
02:25
But if you think about it ecologically,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ื–ื” ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช,
02:28
both cancer and immune cells --
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ื’ื ืชืื™ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื•ื’ื ื”ืชืื™ื ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื --
02:30
the prey and the predator --
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ื”ื˜ืจืฃ ื•ื”ื˜ื•ืจืฃ --
02:31
require nutrients such as glucose to survive.
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ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื—ื•ืžืจื™ ื”ื–ื ื” ื›ืžื• ื’ืœื•ืงื•ื– ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœ ืœืฉืจื•ื“.
02:35
If cancer cells outcompete the immune cells for shared nutrients
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ืื ืชืื™ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื™ื’ื‘ืจื• ืขืœ ื”ืชืื™ื ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื ื‘ืชื—ืจื•ืช ืขืœ ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ ืžื–ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื•ืชืคื™ื
02:40
in the tumor microenvironment,
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ื‘ืžื™ืงืจื•-ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ,
02:41
then the immune cells will physically not be able to do their job.
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ืื– ื”ืชืื™ื ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื ืœื ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืคื™ื–ื™ืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื”ื.
02:46
This predator-prey-shared resource type model
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ื”ืžื•ื“ืœ ืฉืœ ืžืฉืื‘ื™ื ื”ืžืฉื•ืชืคื™ื ืœื˜ื•ืจืฃ ื•ืœื˜ืจืฃ
02:49
is something I've worked on in my own research.
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ื”ื•ื ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืื ื™ ืขื‘ื“ืชื™ ืขืœื™ื• ื‘ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœื™.
02:51
And it was recently shown experimentally
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ื•ื”ื•ื›ื— ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื‘ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื
02:54
that restoring the metabolic balance in the tumor microenvironment --
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ืฉืฉื™ืงื•ื ื”ืื™ื–ื•ืŸ ื”ืžื˜ืื‘ื•ืœื™ ื‘ืžื™ืงืจื•-ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ --
02:58
that is, making sure immune cells get their food --
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ, ื”ื—ืชื™ืจื” ืœืžืฆื‘ ืฉื‘ื• ื”ืชืื™ื ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ื ื™ื™ื ืžืงื‘ืœื™ื ืืช ื”ืžื–ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื”ื --
03:01
can give them, the predators, back their edge in fighting cancer, the prey.
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ืชื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ื—ื–ื™ืจ ืœื”ื, ืœื˜ื•ืจืคื™ื, ืืช ื”ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ื‘ืžืœื—ืžื” ืžื•ืœ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ, ื”ื˜ืจืฃ.
03:08
This means that if you abstract a bit,
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืžื•ืคืฉื˜ืช,
03:10
you can think about cancer itself as an ecosystem,
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ืขืฆืžื• ื›ืขืœ ืžืขืจื›ืช ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช,
03:13
where heterogeneous populations of cells compete and cooperate
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ืฉื‘ื” ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื•ืช ื”ื˜ืจื•ื’ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืชืื™ื ืžืชื—ืจื•ืช ื•ืžืฉืชืคื•ืช ืคืขื•ืœื”
03:18
for space and nutrients,
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ื‘ืžืื‘ืง ืขืœ ืžืจื—ื‘ ื•ื—ื•ืžืจื™ ื”ื–ื ื”,
03:20
interact with predators -- the immune system --
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ืžืงื™ื™ืžื™ื ื™ื—ืกื™ ื’ื•ืžืœื™ืŸ ืขื ื˜ื•ืจืคื™ื -- ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื—ื™ืกื•ืŸ -
03:22
migrate -- metastases --
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ืžื”ื’ืจื™ื -- ื’ืจื•ืจื•ืช --
03:25
all within the ecosystem of the human body.
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ื›ืœ ืืœื• ื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ืฉืœ ื’ื•ืฃ ื”ืื“ื.
03:28
And what do we know about most ecosystems from conservation biology?
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ื•ืžื” ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืขืœ ืจื•ื‘ ื”ืžืขืจื›ื•ืช ื”ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ืžืžื“ืข ื”ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”?
03:32
That one of the best ways to extinguish species
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ืฉืื—ืช ื”ื“ืจื›ื™ื ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœื”ืขืœื™ื ืžื™ื ื™ื
03:35
is not to target them directly
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ื”ื™ื ืœื ืœื›ื•ื•ืŸ ืืœื™ื”ื ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื™ืฉื™ืจ
03:37
but to target their environment.
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ืืœื ืœื›ื•ื•ืŸ ืืœ ื”ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื”ื.
03:40
And so, once we have identified the key components
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ื•ื›ืš, ื‘ืจื’ืข ืฉื–ื™ื”ื™ื ื• ืืช ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ ื”ืžืคืชื—
03:43
of the tumor environment,
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ืฉืœ ืกื‘ื™ื‘ืช ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ,
03:45
we can propose hypotheses
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฆื™ืข ื”ืฉืขืจื•ืช
03:47
and simulate scenarios and therapeutic interventions
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ื•ืœื“ืžื•ืช ืชืจื—ื™ืฉื™ื ื•ื”ืชืขืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ื•ืช
03:50
all in a completely safe and affordable way
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ื›ืœ ื–ืืช ื‘ื“ืจืš ื‘ื˜ื•ื—ื” ื•ื—ืกื›ื•ื ื™ืช
03:54
and target different components of the microenvironment
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ื•ืœื›ื•ื•ืŸ ืœืžืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื ื‘ืžื™ืงืจื•-ืกื‘ื™ื‘ื”
03:57
in such a way as to kill the cancer without harming the host,
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ื‘ื“ืจืš ื›ื–ืืช ืฉืชื”ืจื•ื’ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื‘ืœื™ ืœืคื’ื•ืข ื‘ืคื•ื ื“ืื™,
04:01
such as me or you.
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ืื ื™ ืื• ืืชื.
04:05
And so while the immediate goal of my research
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ืื– ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉื”ืžื˜ืจื” ื”ืžื™ื™ื“ื™ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœื™
04:08
is to advance research and innovation
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ื”ื™ื ืœืงื“ื ืžื—ืงืจ ื•ื—ื“ืฉื ื•ืช
04:10
and to reduce its cost,
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ื•ืœืฆืžืฆื ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช,
04:12
the real intent, of course, is to save lives.
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ื”ื›ื•ื•ื ื” ื”ืืžื™ืชื™ืช, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื”ื™ื ืœื”ืฆื™ืœ ื—ื™ื™ื.
04:15
And that's what I try to do
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ื•ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžื ืกื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช
04:17
through mathematical modeling applied to biology,
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ื“ืจืš ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื ืฉื ื™ืชื ื™ื ืœื™ื™ืฉื•ื ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”,
04:19
and in particular, to the development of drugs.
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ื•ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™, ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
04:22
It's a field that until relatively recently has remained somewhat marginal,
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ื–ื” ืชื—ื•ื ืฉืขื“ ื™ื—ืกื™ืช ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื” ื”ื™ื” ื“ื™ ืฉื•ืœื™,
04:26
but it has matured.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื”ื‘ืฉื™ืœ.
04:28
And there are now very well-developed mathematical methods,
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื™ืฉ ืฉื™ื˜ื•ืช ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื•ืช ืžืื•ื“ ืžืคื•ืชื—ื•ืช,
04:31
a lot of preprogrammed tools,
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ื›ืœื™ ืชื™ื›ื ื•ืช,
04:33
including free ones,
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ื’ื ื—ื™ื ืžื™ื™ื,
04:35
and an ever-increasing amount of computational power available to us.
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ื•ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ืชืžื™ื“ื™ ืฉืœ ื›ื— ื”ืžื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื”ื–ืžื™ืŸ ืœื ื•.
04:40
The power and beauty of mathematical modeling
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ื”ื›ื•ื— ื•ื”ื™ื•ืคื™ ืฉืœ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื
04:44
lies in the fact that it makes you formalize,
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ื˜ืžื•ื ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื”ื ืžืืคืฉืจื™ื ืœื ื• ืœื ืกื—,
04:46
in a very rigorous way,
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ื‘ื“ืจืš ืžืื•ื“ ืงืคื“ื ื™ืช,
04:48
what we think we know.
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ืืช ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื.
04:50
We make assumptions,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื ื™ื—ื™ื ื”ื ื—ื•ืช,
04:52
translate them into equations,
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ืžืชืจื’ืžื™ื ืื•ืชื ืœืžืฉื•ื•ืื•ืช,
04:53
run simulations,
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ืžืจื™ืฆื™ื ื”ื“ืžื™ื•ืช,
04:55
all to answer the question:
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ื•ื›ืœ ื–ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœืขื ื•ืช ืขืœ ื”ืฉืืœื”:
04:57
In a world where my assumptions are true,
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ื‘ืขื•ืœื ืฉื‘ื• ื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ืฉืœื™ ื”ืŸ ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช,
04:59
what do I expect to see?
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ืžื” ืื ื™ ืžืฆืคื” ืœืจืื•ืช?
05:01
It's a pretty simple conceptual framework.
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ื–ื• ืžืกื’ืจืช ืจืขื™ื•ื ื™ืช ื“ื™ ืคืฉื•ื˜ื”.
05:04
It's all about asking the right questions.
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ื–ื” ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืฉืœ ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืืช ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช.
05:06
But it can unleash numerous opportunities for testing biological hypotheses.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืืคืฉืจ ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ื™ื•ืช ืจื‘ื•ืช ืœื‘ื—ื™ื ืช ื”ืฉืขืจื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช.
05:11
If our predictions match our observations,
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ืื ื”ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืชื•ืืžื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชืฆืคื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•,
05:14
great! -- we got it right, so we can make further predictions
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ืžืฆื•ื™ืŸ! -- ืขืฉื™ื ื• ืืช ื–ื” ื ื›ื•ืŸ, ืื– ืืคืฉืจ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืขื•ื“ ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช
05:17
by changing this or that aspect of the model.
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ื™ื‘ื˜ ื–ื” ืื• ืื—ืจ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื•ื“ืœ.
05:20
If, however, our predictions do not match our observations,
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ืื, ืœืขื•ืžืช ื–ืืช, ื”ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœื ืชื•ืืžื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชืฆืคื™ื•ืช,
05:24
that means that some of our assumptions are wrong,
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื—ืœืง ืžื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ื”ื™ื• ืฉื’ื•ื™ื•ืช,
05:27
and so our understanding of the key mechanisms
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ื•ื”ื”ื‘ื ื” ืฉืœื ื• ืฉืœ ืžื ื’ื•ื ื™ ืžืคืชื—
05:29
of underlying biology
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ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืช
05:30
is still incomplete.
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ื”ื™ื ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœื ืฉืœืžื”.
05:32
Luckily, since this is a model,
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ืœืžื–ืœื ื•, ืžืื—ืจ ืฉื–ื” ืžื•ื“ืœ,
05:35
we control all the assumptions.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฉื•ืœื˜ื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช.
05:37
So we can go through them, one by one,
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืขืœื™ื”ืŸ, ืื—ืช ืื—ืช,
05:39
identifying which one or ones are causing the discrepancy.
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ืœื–ื”ื•ืช ืื™ื–ื” ืื• ืื™ืœื• ืžื”ืŸ ื’ื•ืจืžื•ืช ืœืื™ ื”ื”ืชืืžื”.
05:43
And then we can fill this newly identified gap in knowledge
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ื•ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืœื™ื ืืช ื—ื•ืกืจ ื”ื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”
05:47
using both experimental and theoretical approaches.
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ ื‘ื’ื™ืฉื•ืช ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื•ืช ื•ืชื™ืื•ืจื˜ื™ื•ืช.
05:50
Of course, any ecosystem is extremely complex,
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื›ืœ ืžืขืจื›ืช ืืงื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช ื”ื™ื ืžืื•ื“ ืžืกื•ื‘ื›ืช,
05:53
and trying to describe all the moving parts is not only very difficult,
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ื•ื”ื ืกื™ื•ืŸ ืœืชืืจ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื—ืœืงื™ื ื”ื ืขื™ื ืื™ื ื• ืจืง ืงืฉื” ืžืื•ื“,
05:57
but also not very informative.
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ืืœื ื’ื ืœื ื›ืดื› ืื™ื ืคื•ืจืžื˜ื™ื‘ื™.
05:59
There's also the issue of timescales,
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ื™ืฉ ื’ื ืืช ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืฉืœ ืฆื™ืจื™ ื–ืžื ื™ื,
06:01
because some processes take place on a scale of seconds, some minutes,
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ื›ื™ ื™ืฉ ืชื”ืœื™ื›ื™ื ืฉืงื•ืจื™ื ืชื•ืš ืฉื ื™ื•ืช ืื• ื“ืงื•ืช,
06:05
some days, months and years.
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ื•ืื—ืจื™ื ืฉื ืžืฉื›ื™ื ื™ืžื™ื, ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ืื• ืฉื ื™ื.
06:07
It may not always be possible to separate those out experimentally.
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ื–ื” ืื•ืœื™ ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืืคืฉืจื™ ื›ืœ ื”ื–ืžืŸ ืœื”ืคืจื™ื“ ื‘ื™ื ื™ื”ื ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ืช.
06:11
And some things happen so quickly or so slowly
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ื•ื™ืฉ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉื™ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืžื”ืจ ืื• ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืœืื˜
06:14
that you may physically never be able to measure them.
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ืฉืคื™ื–ื™ืช ื™ืชื›ืŸ ืฉืœื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืžื“ื•ื“ ืื•ืชื ื›ืœืœ.
06:17
But as mathematicians,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืžืชืžื˜ื™ืงืื™ื,
06:19
we have the power to zoom in on any subsystem in any timescale
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ื›ื— ืœื”ืชืžืงื“ ื‘ื›ืœ ืชืช-ืžืขืจื›ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ืฆื™ืจ ื–ืžืŸ
06:25
and simulate effects of interventions
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ื•ืœื“ืžื•ืช ื”ืฉืคืขื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืชืขืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช
06:27
that take place in any timescale.
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ืฉื ืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ ื–ืžืŸ.
06:31
Of course, this isn't the work of a modeler alone.
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื–ื• ืœื ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœ ืžืขืฆื‘ื™ ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ื‘ืœื‘ื“.
06:34
It has to happen in close collaboration with biologists.
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ื–ื” ื—ื™ื™ื‘ ืœืงืจื•ืช ื‘ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืคืขื•ืœื” ืงืจื•ื‘ ืขื ื‘ื™ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื.
06:38
And it does demand some capacity of translation
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ื•ื–ื” ื“ื•ืจืฉ ื ืคื— ืžืกื•ื™ื ืฉืœ ืชื™ืจื’ื•ื
06:41
on both sides.
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ื‘ืฉื ื™ ื”ืฆื“ื“ื™ื.
06:43
But starting with a theoretical formulation of a problem
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื— ื”ืชื™ืื•ืจื˜ื™ ืฉืœ ื‘ืขื™ื”
06:47
can unleash numerous opportunities for testing hypotheses
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ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืืคืฉืจ ืžืกืคืจ ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ื™ื•ืช ืœื‘ื—ื™ื ืช ื”ืฉืขืจื•ืช
06:50
and simulating scenarios and therapeutic interventions,
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ื•ื“ื™ืžื•ื™ ืชืจื—ื™ืฉื™ื ื•ื”ืชืขืจื‘ื•ื™ื•ืช ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ื•ืช,
06:54
all in a completely safe way.
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ื˜ื•ื— ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ.
06:56
It can identify gaps in knowledge and logical inconsistencies
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ื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื–ื”ื•ืช ืคืขืจื™ื ื‘ื™ื“ืข ื•ื—ื•ืกืจ ืขืงื‘ื™ื•ืช ืœื•ื’ื™
07:02
and can help guide us as to where we should keep looking
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ื•ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื•ืจื•ืช ืœื ื• ื”ื™ื›ืŸ ืœื”ืžืฉื™ืš ืœื—ืคืฉ
07:05
and where there may be a dead end.
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ื•ืื™ืคื” ืขืœื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืชืงืœ ื‘ื“ืจืš ืœืœื ืžื•ืฆื.
07:07
In other words:
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ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ื ืื—ืจื•ืช:
07:08
mathematical modeling can help us answer questions
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ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื ื• ืœืขื ื•ืช ืขืœ ืฉืืœื•ืช
07:12
that directly affect people's health --
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ืฉืžืฉืคื™ืขื•ืช ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื™ืฉื™ืจ ืขืœ ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื --
07:15
that affect each person's health, actually --
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ืฉืžืฉืคื™ืขื•ืช ืขืœ ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืชื• ืฉืœ ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืœืžืขืฉื” --
07:18
because mathematical modeling will be key
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ื›ื™ ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื ืชื”ื™ื” ื”ืžืคืชื—
07:21
to propelling personalized medicine.
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ืœื”ื ื™ืข ืจืคื•ืื” ืžื•ืชืืžืช ืื™ืฉื™ืช.
07:24
And it all comes down to asking the right question
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ื•ื”ื›ืœ ืžืชื—ื™ืœ ื‘ืฉืืœืช ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช
07:27
and translating it to the right equation ...
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ื•ืชืจื’ื•ืžืŸ ืœืžืฉื•ื•ืื” ื”ื ื›ื•ื ื” ...
07:30
and back.
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ื•ื‘ื—ื–ืจื”.
07:32
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื”.
07:33
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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