How we look kilometers below the Antarctic ice sheet | Dustin Schroeder

33,504 views ・ 2018-03-22

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong
00:12
I'm a radio glaciologist.
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我是無線電冰河學家。
00:15
That means that I use radar to study glaciers and ice sheets.
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意思就是說,我用雷達 來研究冰河和大冰原。
00:19
And like most glaciologists right now,
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和現在大部分的冰河學家一樣,
00:21
I'm working on the problem of estimating
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我在努力解決的問題是估計
00:23
how much the ice is going to contribute to sea level rise in the future.
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在未來,冰對於海平面 上升的影響會有多大。
00:28
So today, I want to talk to you about
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所以,今天,我想和各位談的是
為什麼這麼難預測 海平面上升的數字,
00:30
why it's so hard to put good numbers on sea level rise,
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00:33
and why I believe that by changing the way we think about radar technology
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以及為什麼我相信藉由 改變我們對雷達技術
00:37
and earth-science education,
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以及地球科學教育的看法,
00:39
we can get much better at it.
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我們就能把預測做得更好。
00:42
When most scientists talk about sea level rise,
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當大部分科學家談到海平面上升時,
00:44
they show a plot like this.
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他們會展示這類的圖。
00:45
This is produced using ice sheet and climate models.
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這張圖是用大冰原 和氣候模型產生出來的。
00:48
On the right, you can see the range of sea level
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在右邊,各位能看見海平面的範圍,
00:51
predicted by these models over the next 100 years.
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是用這些模型針對 未來一百年所做的預測。
00:54
For context, this is current sea level,
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背景說明:這是目前的海平面,
00:57
and this is the sea level
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海平面超過這個高度時,
00:58
above which more than 4 million people could be vulnerable to displacement.
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有超過四百萬人會受到遷移的影響。
01:02
So in terms of planning,
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所以,就規劃而言,
01:04
the uncertainty in this plot is already large.
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在這張圖上的不確定性已經很高了。
01:07
However, beyond that, this plot comes with the asterisk and the caveat,
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然而,在那之外,這張圖 還帶著星號和警告的訊息:
01:12
"... unless the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses."
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「……除非西南極冰蓋崩解。」
01:15
And in that case, we would be talking about dramatically higher numbers.
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若那狀況發生,我們要談的 數字又會明顯更高了。
01:19
They'd literally be off the chart.
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它們會在這張圖的範圍之外。
01:21
And the reason we should take that possibility seriously
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我們應該要認真看待 那種可能性的原因,
01:24
is that we know from the geologic history of the Earth
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是我們從地球的地質史可以知道,
01:27
that there were periods in its history
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在歷史上的某些時期,
01:29
when sea level rose much more quickly than today.
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海平面上升的速度比現今還快很多。
01:32
And right now, we cannot rule out
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現在,我們無法排除
01:34
the possibility of that happening in the future.
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那種現象在未來發生的可能性。
01:37
So why can't we say with confidence
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所以,為什麼我們無法有信心地說出
01:40
whether or not a significant portion of a continent-scale ice sheet
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和大陸一樣大的一塊大冰原 是否有明顯的一部分
01:46
will or will not collapse?
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將會或者將不會崩解?
01:48
Well, in order to do that, we need models
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要做到這一點,我們需要模型,
01:50
that we know include all of the processes, conditions and physics
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且模型必須要 含有與這類崩解相關的
01:54
that would be involved in a collapse like that.
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過程、條件、物理學。
01:57
And that's hard to know,
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那些資訊很難知道,
01:58
because those processes and conditions are taking place
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因為那些過程和條件是發生在
02:01
beneath kilometers of ice,
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冰底下數公里深的地方,
02:03
and satellites, like the one that produced this image,
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而衛星,比如產出這張影像的衛星,
02:05
are blind to observe them.
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無法觀察到它們。
02:07
In fact, we have much more comprehensive observations of the surface of Mars
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事實上,我們對於火星表面的觀察,
02:12
than we do of what's beneath the Antarctic ice sheet.
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還比南極冰蓋底下更全面。
02:15
And this is even more challenging in that we need these observations
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更困難的是,我們需要的觀察資料
02:19
at a gigantic scale in both space and time.
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在空間和時間的規模上都非常龐大。
02:22
In terms of space, this is a continent.
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就空間來說,這是一塊大陸。
02:25
And in the same way that in North America,
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就如同在北美洲,
02:27
the Rocky Mountains, Everglades and Great Lakes regions are very distinct,
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落磯山脈、佛羅里達大沼澤、 五大湖區域是非常明顯的,
02:31
so are the subsurface regions of Antarctica.
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在南極的表面區域亦是如此。
02:34
And in terms of time, we now know
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就時間來說,我們現在知道
02:36
that ice sheets not only evolve over the timescale of millennia and centuries,
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大冰原的演化並不只能從 千年和百年才看得出來,
02:40
but they're also changing over the scale of years and days.
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它們其實每年、每天都在改變。
02:44
So what we want is observations beneath kilometers of ice
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所以我們想要的是: 觀察在冰底下數公里深的地方,
02:48
at the scale of a continent,
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範圍規模要和一塊大陸一樣大,
02:50
and we want them all the time.
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且所有時間點的資料都要有。
02:53
So how do we do this?
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所以,我們要怎麼做?
02:54
Well, we're not totally blind to the subsurface.
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我們並非完全看不見 表層以下的地方。
02:58
I said in the beginning that I was a radio glaciologist,
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在一開始我有提到 我是無線電冰河學家,
03:01
and the reason that that's a thing
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這一點之所以很重要,
03:03
is that airborne ice-penetrating radar is the main tool we have
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是因為空載且能穿透冰的雷達,
是我們用來看大冰原 裡面的主要工具。
03:07
to see inside of ice sheets.
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03:09
So most of the data used by my group is collected by airplanes
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所以,我的小組所用的大部分資料, 都是用飛機搜集的資料,
03:13
like this World War II-era DC-3,
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像這架二次大戰時期的 DC-3,
03:15
that actually fought in the Battle of the Bulge.
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它真的打過突出部之役。
03:17
You can see the antennas underneath the wing.
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你們可以看到在機翼下面的天線。
03:20
These are used to transmit radar signals down into the ice.
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它們是用來把雷達訊號 向下傳輸到冰裡面。
03:24
And the echos that come back contain information
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反射回來的電波資訊就能說明
03:26
about what's happening inside and beneath the ice sheet.
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在大冰原內部和底下發生的狀況。
03:30
While this is happening,
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在進行的同時,
03:31
scientists and engineers are on the airplane
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科學家和工程師會在飛機上,
03:34
for eight hours at a stretch,
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八小時完全不休息,
03:35
making sure that the radar's working.
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確保雷達的運作順利。
03:37
And I think this is actually a misconception
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我認為,人們對於這種 實地調查工作有一種誤解,
03:40
about this type of fieldwork,
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03:42
where people imagine scientists peering out the window,
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把這種工作想像成 科學家從窗戶向外窺視,
03:45
contemplating the landscape, its geologic context
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凝視著地景以及其地質環境,
03:48
and the fate of the ice sheets.
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深思著大冰原的命運。
03:50
We actually had a guy from the BBC's "Frozen Planet" on one of these flights.
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其實在飛機上有一個 BBC 《冰凍星球》節目的人同行。
03:53
And he spent, like, hours videotaping us turn knobs.
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他花了數小時的時間 在拍攝我們轉動旋鈕。
03:57
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:59
And I was actually watching the series years later with my wife,
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多年後,我和我太太 一起看這系列節目,
04:03
and a scene like this came up, and I commented on how beautiful it was.
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出現了一個像這樣的景, 我說著它有多麼美麗。
04:07
And she said, "Weren't you on that flight?"
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她說:「你不是在那台飛機上嗎?」
04:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:11
I said, "Yeah, but I was looking at a computer screen."
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我說:「是啊, 但我都在看電腦螢幕。」
04:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:15
So when you think about this type of fieldwork,
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所以,別把這類的實地調查工作
04:17
don't think about images like this.
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想像成這樣的畫面。
04:19
Think about images like this.
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而是要想成這樣的畫面。
04:21
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:22
This is a radargram, which is a vertical profile through the ice sheet,
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這是雷達圖像, 整個大冰原的垂直剖面,
04:25
kind of like a slice of cake.
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有一點像一片蛋糕。
04:27
The bright layer on the top is the surface of the ice sheet,
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上方亮色的那一層 是大冰原的表面,
04:30
the bright layer on the bottom is the bedrock of the continent itself,
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底下亮色的那一層 是大陸本身的床岩,
04:33
and the layers in between are kind of like tree rings,
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中間的各層有點像是年輪,
04:36
in that they contain information about the history of the ice sheet.
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包含了大冰原歷史的資訊。
04:39
And it's amazing that this works this well.
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能有這麼好的結果, 是很不可思議的。
04:42
The ground-penetrating radars that are used
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能夠穿透地面的雷達,
用來調查道路基礎設施 或是偵測地雷的那種,
04:44
to investigate infrastructures of roads or detect land mines
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04:47
struggle to get through a few meters of earth.
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要穿過幾公尺的陸地都很困難了。
04:49
And here we're peering through three kilometers of ice.
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在這裡,我們能穿過三公里的冰。
04:52
And there are sophisticated, interesting, electromagnetic reasons for that,
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這背後有著很複雜 且有趣的電磁理由,
04:56
but let's say for now that ice is basically the perfect target for radar,
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但在這裡我們姑且就說 冰是雷達的完美目標,
05:00
and radar is basically the perfect tool to study ice sheets.
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而基本上雷達也是研究 大冰原的完美工具。
05:04
These are the flight lines
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這些是飛行路線,
05:05
of most of the modern airborne radar-sounding profiles
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沿這些路線,我們從 南極各地取得大部分的
05:09
collected over Antarctica.
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現代空載雷達探測數據。
05:10
This is the result of heroic efforts over decades
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這是來自不同國家的團隊
05:13
by teams from a variety of countries and international collaborations.
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以及國際合作,投入 數十年努力的結果。
05:17
And when you put those together, you get an image like this,
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把這些都整合起來, 就會得到像這樣的影像,
05:20
which is what the continent of Antarctica would look like
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這就是把南極大陸上面的冰
05:23
without all the ice on top.
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去除後的樣子。
05:25
And you can really see the diversity of the continent in an image like this.
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在這樣的影像中, 可以真正看到大陸的多樣性。
05:30
The red features are volcanoes or mountains;
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紅色區域代表火山或山岳;
05:32
the areas that are blue would be open ocean
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藍色區域是開放海洋,
05:35
if the ice sheet was removed.
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如果把冰除去的話。
05:36
This is that giant spatial scale.
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那是巨大的空間尺度。
05:39
However, all of this that took decades to produce
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然而,要花數十年時間才能
05:42
is just one snapshot of the subsurface.
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產出一張表面底下的快照。
05:46
It does not give us any indication of how the ice sheet is changing in time.
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這樣還無法看出大冰原 如何隨著時間改變。
05:51
Now, we're working on that, because it turns out
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我們正在努力,因為結果發現,
05:53
that the very first radar observations of Antarctica were collected
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最早的南極雷達觀測資料
05:57
using 35 millimeter optical film.
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是用 35 毫米的光學底片收集的。
06:00
And there were thousands of reels of this film
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這種底片有數千卷之多,
06:02
in the archives of the museum of the Scott Polar Research Institute
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都存放在史考特 極地研究中心的博物館中,
06:05
at the University of Cambridge.
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位在劍橋大學內。
06:07
So last summer, I took a state-of-the-art film scanner
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所以,去年夏天, 我拿了最先進的掃瞄器,
06:09
that was developed for digitizing Hollywood films and remastering them,
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它是為了將好萊塢電影 給數位化和重製而設計的,
06:13
and two art historians,
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與兩位藝術歷史學家
06:14
and we went over to England, put on some gloves
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一同前往英國,戴上手套,
06:16
and archived and digitized all of that film.
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把所有那些底片都建檔和數位化。
06:19
So that produced two million high-resolution images
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結果產出了兩百萬張 高解析度的影像,
06:22
that my group is now working on analyzing and processing
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現在我的小組正在 努力分析和處理它們,
06:26
for comparing with contemporary conditions in the ice sheet.
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來和同時期大冰原內的狀況做比較。
06:29
And, actually, that scanner -- I found out about it
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其實,那台掃瞄器──我是從
06:31
from an archivist at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
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電影藝術與科學學院的 檔案保管員那裡得知的。
06:35
So I'd like to thank the Academy --
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所以,我要感謝影藝學院── (註:模仿奧斯卡得主致辭)
06:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:40
for making this possible.
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讓這一切得以成真。
06:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:42
And as amazing as it is
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我們能夠看到五十年前,
06:44
that we can look at what was happening under the ice sheet 50 years ago,
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在冰底下發生的狀況, 雖然這是很了不起的事,
06:47
this is still just one more snapshot.
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但這也只是多看到一張快照而已。
06:50
It doesn't give us observations
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它還沒辦法提供我們
06:52
of the variation at the annual or seasonal scale,
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每年或每季的變化觀測資料,
06:55
that we know matters.
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我們知道這些資料很重要。
06:57
There's some progress here, too.
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還是有一些進展。
06:59
There are these recent ground-based radar systems that stay in one spot.
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最近有些地面雷達系統 可以固定在一個地點。
07:03
So you take these radars and put them on the ice sheet
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所以你可以把這類的 雷達放到大冰原上,
07:05
and you bury a cache of car batteries.
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並貯藏許多汽車電池來供電。
07:07
And you leave them out there for months or years at a time,
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你可以把它們留在那裡 數個月或數年,
07:10
and they send a pulse down into the ice sheet
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它們每分鐘或每小時就會將脈衝
07:12
every so many minutes or hours.
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向下發送到大冰原裡。
07:14
So this gives you continuous observation in time --
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這樣就能得到 連續時間的觀測資料──
07:16
but at one spot.
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但只是單點的。
07:18
So if you compare that imaging to the 2-D pictures provided by the airplane,
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如果你把那成像結果放到 飛機提供的二維圖片上,
07:22
this is just one vertical line.
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其實只是一條垂直線。
07:25
And this is pretty much where we are as a field right now.
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大致上,這就是我們 目前在努力的領域。
07:28
We can choose between good spatial coverage
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我們可以選擇涵蓋很大的空間面積,
07:31
with airborne radar sounding
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用空載雷達探測;
07:32
and good temporal coverage in one spot with ground-based sounding.
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或選擇涵蓋長時間範圍、 單一地點,用陸基雷達探測。
07:36
But neither gives us what we really want:
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但兩個選項都無法提供我們想要的:
07:38
both at the same time.
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我們想同時得到兩者。
07:40
And if we're going to do that,
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如果我們要那麼做,
07:42
we're going to need totally new ways of observing the ice sheet.
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我們會需要用全新的 方式來觀察大冰原。
07:45
And ideally, those should be extremely low-cost
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理想上,那些方式的 成本應該要極低,
07:47
so that we can take lots of measurements from lots of sensors.
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這樣我們才能從許多 感測器取得許多測量值。
07:51
Well, for existing radar systems,
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就目前既有的雷達系統而言,
07:54
the biggest driver of cost is the power required
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最耗成本的部分是在電力,
07:57
to transmit the radar signal itself.
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用來發射雷達訊號。
08:00
So it’d be great if we were able to use existing radio systems
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所以,如果我們 能用在環境中既有的
08:03
or radio signals that are in the environment.
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雷達系統或雷達訊號,那就很棒了。
08:06
And fortunately, the entire field of radio astronomy
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不幸的是,整個無線電天文學領域
08:09
is built on the fact that there are bright radio signals in the sky.
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都建立在一個基礎事實上: 天空中有明亮的無線電訊號。
08:12
And a really bright one is our sun.
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而最明亮的訊號就是太陽。
08:15
So, actually, one of the most exciting things my group is doing right now
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所以,我的小組現在正在進行的 最讓人興奮的事情之一,
08:18
is trying to use the radio emissions from the sun as a type of radar signal.
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就是嘗試使用太陽放射的 無線電來當作一種雷達訊號。
08:22
This is one of our field tests at Big Sur.
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這是我們在大索爾的實地測試之一。
08:24
That PVC pipe ziggurat is an antenna stand some undergrads in my lab built.
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聚氯乙烯管做成的塔是個天線架, 我的實驗室中的一些大學生打造的。
08:29
And the idea here is that we stay out at Big Sur,
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這裡的想法是, 我們在大索爾待在戶外,
08:32
and we watch the sunset in radio frequencies,
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我們去看日落的無線電頻率,
08:34
and we try and detect the reflection of the sun off the surface of the ocean.
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並試著偵測太陽照在 海洋表面所形成的反射。
08:39
Now, I know you're thinking, "There are no glaciers at Big Sur."
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我知道你們在想: 「在大索爾沒有冰河。」
08:43
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:44
And that's true.
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的確如此。
08:45
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:46
But it turns out that detecting the reflection of the sun
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但結果發現,偵測太陽 照射在海洋表面的反射,
08:50
off the surface of the ocean
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和偵測大冰原底部的反射,
08:52
and detecting the reflection off the bottom of an ice sheet
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在地球物理學上是極度相似的。
08:54
are extremely geophysically similar.
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08:56
And if this works,
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如果這是可行的,
08:57
we should be able to apply the same measurement principle in Antarctica.
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我們應該可以把同樣的 測量原則應用到南極。
09:01
And this is not as far-fetched as it seems.
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這並沒有看起來得那麼牽強。
09:03
The seismic industry has gone through a similar technique-development exercise,
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地震產業就已經完成了 一個類似的技術發展實做,
09:07
where they were able to move from detonating dynamite as a source,
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他們從將引爆炸藥當作來源,
09:10
to using ambient seismic noise in the environment.
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變成是用環境中的震測雜波。
09:12
And defense radars use TV signals and radio signals all the time,
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防禦雷達也總是在用 電視訊號以及廣播訊號,
09:16
so they don't have to transmit a signal of radar
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這樣他們就不用發出一個雷達訊號,
09:19
and give away their position.
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暴露出他們的所在位置。
09:21
So what I'm saying is, this might really work.
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所以,我的意思是, 這很有可能是可行的。
09:23
And if it does, we're going to need extremely low-cost sensors
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如果可行,我們就會 需要極低成本的感測器,
09:27
so we can deploy networks of hundreds or thousands of these on an ice sheet
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才能在大冰原上部署含有 數百或數千個感測器的網路,
09:30
to do imaging.
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來進行成像。
09:31
And that's where the technological stars have really aligned to help us.
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那對我們而言,可說是 科技上的天時地利人和。
09:35
Those earlier radar systems I talked about
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我先前談到的早期雷達系統,
09:37
were developed by experienced engineers over the course of years
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是由有經驗的工程師, 花了數年時間,
09:41
at national facilities
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在國家提供的場所中, 用昂貴的專門設備開發出來的。
09:43
with expensive specialized equipment.
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09:45
But the recent developments in software-defined radio,
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但因為近期開發出了軟體無線電,
09:48
rapid fabrication and the maker movement,
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加上快速製造,以及自造者運動,
09:50
make it so that it's possible for a team of teenagers
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讓在我實驗室中工作的 一個青少年團隊,
09:53
working in my lab over the course of a handful of months
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能夠花短短幾個月的時間,
09:56
to build a prototype radar.
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就建造出一個原型雷達。
09:58
OK, they're not any teenagers, they’re Stanford undergrads,
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好吧,他們不是隨便的青少年, 他們是史丹佛大學生,
10:00
but the point holds --
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但重點不變──
10:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:03
that these enabling technologies are letting us break down the barrier
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這些科技賦予我們能力, 讓我們能夠突破擋在
10:07
between engineers who build instruments and scientists that use them.
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打造工具的工程師和 使用工具的科學家之間的障礙。
10:11
And by teaching engineering students to think like earth scientists
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透過教導工程學生 用地球科學家的方式思考,
10:15
and earth-science students who can think like engineers,
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教導地球科學學生 用工程師的方式思考,
10:18
my lab is building an environment in which we can build custom radar sensors
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我的實驗室建立出了一個環境, 讓我們可以針對手上的每個問題,
10:22
for each problem at hand,
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打造訂製的雷達感測器,
10:24
that are optimized for low cost and high performance
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為該問題找出低成本高效能的
10:27
for that problem.
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最佳化解決方案。
10:29
And that's going to totally change the way we observe ice sheets.
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那將會完全改變我們 觀察大冰原的方式。
10:32
Look, the sea level problem and the role of the cryosphere in sea level rise
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海平面問題以及冰凍圈在 海平面上升中所扮演的角色
10:38
is extremely important
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是極度重要的,
10:39
and will affect the entire world.
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且會影響整個世界。
10:41
But that is not why I work on it.
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但那並非我投身這個領域的原因。
10:44
I work on it for the opportunity to teach and mentor
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我這麼做是為了 有機會能夠教導和指導
10:47
extremely brilliant students,
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極聰明的學生,
10:49
because I deeply believe that teams of hypertalented,
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因為我深信, 由超有才華、超有動力、
10:52
hyperdriven, hyperpassionate young people
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超有熱情的年輕人所組成的團隊,
10:55
can solve most of the challenges facing the world,
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能夠解決世界面臨的大部分難題,
10:58
and that providing the observations required to estimate sea level rise
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我也深信,提供估計 海平面上升所需要的觀測值,
11:02
is just one of the many such problems they can and will solve.
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也只是他們能夠且將會解決的 許多此類問題當中的一個。
11:06
Thank you.
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謝謝。
11:07
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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