A path to security for the world's deadliest countries | Rachel Kleinfeld

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shengmin Huang

Picture your dream vacation.

想像你的夢中假期。

Maybe you're dying to go to Rio for Carnival.

也許你非常渴望去里約的嘉年華。

Or you really just want to hang out on a Mexican beach.

或者你只想在墨西哥的 海灘上消磨時間。

Or maybe you're going to join me in New Orleans for Jazz Fest.

又或者，也許你想跟我 一起去紐奧良的爵士節。

Now, I know it's less pleasant,

現在，我知道沒那麼愉快，

but picture, for a moment,

但請想像一下

one of the most violent places on earth.

地球上其中一個最暴力的地方。

Did anyone think of the same place?

有人想的是剛才提到的那些地方嗎？

Brazil is the most violent country in the world today.

巴西是現今世界上最暴力的國家。

More people have been dying there over the last three years

過去三年間，在巴西死亡的人數

than in Syria.

比敘利亞還高。

And in Mexico, more people have died over the last 15 years

過去十五年間， 在墨西哥死亡的人數

比伊拉克或阿富汗都要多。

than in Iraq or Afghanistan.

In New Orleans, more people per capita are dying

在紐奧良，人均的死亡人數

than in war-torn Somalia.

比戰爭摧殘下的索馬利亞還高。

The fact is, war only results

事實上，全世界的暴力死亡中

in about 18 percent of violent deaths worldwide.

只有約 18% 是戰爭造成的。

Today, you are more likely to die violently

現今，如果你依靠中等收入

if you live in a middle-income democracy

生活在一個收入高度不平等

with high levels of income inequality

以及政治劇烈兩極化的民主社會裡，

and serious political polarization.

你死於暴力的可能性更高。

The United States has four of the 50 most violent cities on earth.

地球上最暴力的城市， 前五十名中就有四名位在美國。

Now, this is a fundamental alteration in the nature of violence, historically.

這代表暴力的本質在發生 根本上的歷史性改變。

But it's also an opportunity.

但這也是個機會。

Because while few people can do much to end war,

因為，雖然很少人 有能力可以終止戰爭，

violence in our democracies is our problem.

但我們民主制度中的暴力 正是我們的問題。

And while regular voters are a big part of that problem,

雖然普通選民相當程度上 正是問題所在，

we're also key to the solution.

但也是解決方案的關鍵所在。

Now, I work at a think tank,

現在我就職於一個智囊團， 叫做卡內基國際和平基金會。

the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,

where I advise governments on what to do about violence,

我的職責是向政府提供 如何處理暴力的建議，

but the dirty secret is,

但骯髒的秘密是

most policymakers haven't figured out these changes to violence today.

大部分的政策制訂者還沒想通 現今的暴力已經有所改變。

They still believe that the worst violence happens in countries at war

他們仍然相信最嚴重的暴力 發生在戰爭中的國家，

or places that are too poor, too weak,

或者過於貧窮弱勢而無法

to fight violence and control crime.

對抗暴力、控制犯罪的地方。

And that had been my assumption too.

我以前也有過這樣的假設。

But if you look at a map of the most violent places on earth,

但如果在地圖上標出 地球上最暴力的地方，

you see something strange.

你會發現奇怪的現象。

Some of them are at war,

當中有些地方是有戰爭，

and a few are truly failed states.

少部分是真正衰落的國家。

The violence in these places is horrific,

在這些地方的暴力很可怕，

but they happen to have small populations,

但它們剛好人口不多，

so it actually affects few people.

所以影響的人數不多。

Then there's South Africa, Brazil, Venezuela.

接著，還有南非、巴西、委內瑞拉。

These places are not poor.

這些地方並不貧窮。

Maybe they're weak.

也許它們是弱國。

My research assistant and I mapped places

我和我的研究助理根據各地

based on how well they delivered on World Bank projects

履行世界銀行計畫的表現， 以及能否向公民提供公共服務做為標準

and whether they could get public services to their people,

列出了一些地區，

and if you did well on both of those,

如果兩者都表現良好，

if you could get sanitation and electricity to your people

如果能給公民提供衛生和電力，

and deliver vaccines,

施打疫苗，

you were in the upper right-hand quadrant.

這個國家就會在右上的象限中。

And then we overlaid that

接著，我們把這些地區

with a map of places where journalists were being murdered.

和一份標註了記者被害地點的 地圖重疊起來。

Some were happening in weak states,

有些記者死於弱國，

but an awful lot of journalists were being killed

但格外多的記者

in places plenty capable of protecting them.

死於非常有能力保護他們的地方。

I traveled to every settled continent on earth,

我去過地球上每一塊 有人居住的大陸，

comparing places that had faced massive violence and recovered

把遭受過嚴重暴力 並從中恢復的地方

和沒有這些狀況的地方相比，

and those that hadn't,

and I kept seeing the same pattern.

我發現了一種規律。

I came to call it "privilege violence,"

我把它稱為「特權暴力」，

because it happened in highly unequal democracies,

因為這種暴力發生在 非常不平等的民主國家中，

where a small group of people

在這裏有一小群人

wanted to hold on to inordinate power and privilege.

想要把持過多的權力和特權。

And if they didn't think they could get those policies past the voters,

如果他們不認為 那些政策能被投票通過，

sometimes they would turn to violent groups for help.

有時他們就會轉向暴力團體求助。

Drug cartels would finance their campaigns.

毒梟會金援他們的競選活動。

Organized criminals would help them get out the vote.

組織犯罪份子 會協助他們得到選票。

Gangs would suppress the vote.

幫派會壓迫投票。

And in exchange, they'd be given free reign,

交換條件就是他們 能得到自由支配權，

and violence would grow.

暴力因此滋長。

Take Venezuela.

以委內瑞拉為例，

It's the most violent country in the world today,

用人均死亡人數來看，

if you look at deaths per capita.

它是現今世界上最暴力的國家。

Twenty years ago, the current regime gained power in legitimate elections,

目前的這個政權在二十年前的 正當選舉中取得權力，

but they didn't want to risk losing it,

但他們不想冒失去權力的風險，

and so they turned to gangs, called "colectivos," for help.

所以他們轉向幫派「集體黨」求助。

The gangs were told to get out the vote for the government

幫派被要求要為政府取得選票，

and force people to vote for the regime in some neighborhoods

因此會在一些鄰里中 強迫人民投票給這個政權，

and keep opposition voters away from the polls in others,

在其他地方讓反對方 投票者無法靠近投票所，

and, in exchange, they'd be given control.

交換的條件是得到控制權。

But if criminals have control,

但如果罪犯有控制權，

then police and courts can't do their jobs.

警察和法庭就無法盡他們的職責。

So the second stage in privilege violence

所以，特權暴力的第二個階段

is that courts and police are weakened,

就是法庭和警察的力量被削弱，

and politicians politicize budgets,

政客會從政治上處理預算，

hiring, firing,

進行僱用或開除，

so that they and the violent groups that they collude with stay out of jail.

讓他們和共謀的暴力團體 能夠免於牢獄之災。

Now, pretty soon, good cops leave,

沒多久，好警察就會離開，

and many that remain become brutal.

很多留下來的則變得很殘酷。

They start off, usually, with rough justice.

通常，他們一開始 是執行粗暴的正義。

They kill a drug dealer that they think would be let off by the corrupt courts.

他們會殺死那些他們認為 會被腐敗法庭放走的毒販。

But over time, the worst of them realize that there will be no repercussions

但時間長了，他們當中 最糟糕的人會發現，

他們同流合污的政客會放任他們，

from the politicians they're in bed with,

and they go into business for themselves.

因此他們自己也做起這門生意。

In Venezuela, nearly one in three murders is by the security services.

在委內瑞拉，三起謀殺案中就有 近一起是保全服務業的人犯下的。

Now, the poor are hit hardest by violence all over the world,

在全世界各地，受到 暴力傷害最深的就是窮人，

but they're hardly going to turn to such predatory cops for help.

但他們幾乎不會去向 這些掠奪成性的警察求助。

So they tend to form vigilante groups.

所以他們傾向組成義警團體。

But arm a bunch of 18-year-old boys,

但讓一群十八歲男孩武裝起來，

and pretty soon, they devolve into gangs over time.

沒多久，男孩們就 逐漸發展成了幫派。

Other gangs come in, mafias come in,

其他幫派介入，黑手黨介入，

and they offer to protect people from the other criminals

這些人主動提議保護 人們免受其他罪犯

and from the police.

甚至警察的干擾。

Unlike the state,

和國家政府不同，

the criminals often try to buy legitimacy.

罪犯通常會用買的方式取得合法性。

They give charity. They solve disputes.

他們會做慈善。他們解決爭議。

Sometimes, they even build subsidized housing.

有時，他們甚至會建造補助住房。

The last stage of privilege violence happens when regular people

特權暴力的最後一個階段出現的信號

是謀殺案有相當大的部分 出於普通人之手，

start committing a significant portion of the murder.

Bar fights and neighborhood arguments turn deadly

酒吧打架、鄰坊爭執會鬧出人命，

when violence has become normal

此時暴力已經成為常態，

and repercussions have evaporated.

動起手來根本不計後果。

To outsiders, the culture looks depraved,

對局外人來說， 這種文化看起來很墮落，

as if something is deeply wrong with those people.

好像這些人骨子裡就出了問題。

But any country can become this violent

但任何國家都可能變成這麼暴力，

when the government is, by turns, absent and predatory.

如果政府時而無所作為， 時而掠奪成性，

Actually, that's not quite true --

其實，不盡然如此——

it takes one more step for this level of violence to reign.

還要更進一步，這種程度的 暴力才會成為主導。

It takes mainstream society

要的是主流社會

to ignore the problem.

對問題視而不見。

You'd think that would be impossible,

你可能會認為那不可能， 這種程度的暴力根本不可容忍，

that violence at this level would be unbearable,

but it's actually quite bearable to people like you and me.

但對你我這樣的人來說 這並非不能容忍。

That's because, in every society in the world,

因為，在世界上的每個社區裡，

even the most violent,

即使是在最暴力的社區裡，

violence is highly concentrated.

暴力也是高度集中的。

It happens to people on the wrong side of town,

暴力發生在鎮上 糟糕的那一側的人身上，

people who are poor, often darker,

也就是貧窮的人，通常膚色較深，

often from groups that are marginalized,

通常來自被邊緣化的族群，

groups that mainstream society can separate ourselves from.

那些主流社會可以置身事外的族群。

Violence is so concentrated

暴力太過集中，

that we're shocked when the pattern deviates.

因此當常規偏離軌道時， 我們會很吃驚。

In Washington, DC, in 2001,

2001 年，在華盛頓特區，

a young white college-educated intern

一位受過大學教育的年輕白種實習生

went missing after a hike in Northwest DC,

到華盛頓特區西北區 健行之後就失蹤了，

and her case was in the papers nearly every day.

報紙幾乎天天都有報導她的案例。

On the other side of town,

在鎮的另一側，

a black man had been killed every other day that year.

那一年，每兩天 就有一名黑人被殺害。

Most of those cases never made the papers even once.

這些案例大部分 根本沒有見報的機會。

Middle class society buys their way out of violence.

中產階級社會是用 「買」的方式脫離暴力。

We live in better neighborhoods.

我們住在比較好的鄰里。

Some people buy private security.

有些人能買私人保全。

And we also tell ourselves a story.

我們還會自說自話。

We tell ourselves that most of the people who are killed

我們告訴自己，大部分被殺的人

are probably involved in crime themselves.

可能自己本身就有涉及犯罪。

By believing that somehow some people deserve to be murdered,

透過從某種角度相信 某些人被謀殺是罪有應得，

otherwise good people allow ourselves to live

我們其他好人就能容許我們自己

in places where life chances are so deeply skewed.

住在生活機會非常不公平的地方。

We allow ourselves.

我們允許自己這麼做。

Because, after all, what else can you do?

因為，畢竟，還能怎麼做？

Well, it turns out, quite a lot.

事實上，我們能做的很多。

Because violence today is not largely the result of war

因為現今的暴力 並非主要由戰爭造成，

but is because of rotten politics in our democracies,

而是由民主制度的腐敗政治造成，

regular voters are the greatest force for change.

一般選民正是能帶來 改變的最大力量。

Consider the transformation of Bogotá.

想想波哥大的改革。

In 1994, Colombia's incoming president

1994 年，哥倫比亞即將上台的總統

was caught taking millions of dollars in campaign contributions

被逮到收取了卡利販毒集團的

數百萬美金競選活動獻金，

from the Cali drug cartel,

and the capital was overrun with gangs and paramilitary groups.

首都也滿是幫派 和準軍事組織團體。

But fed-up voters overcame really rabid partisanship,

但忍無可忍的選民克服了 瘋狂的黨派偏護，

and they delivered nearly two-thirds of the vote

將近三分之二的選票

to an independent candidate,

投給獨立候選人，

enough to really overcome business as usual.

足以真正克服「照舊」的現象。

On Mayor Mockus's first day in office,

莫茨庫斯市長上任的第一天，

the police barely bothered to even brief him on homicide,

警方幾乎懶得向他 簡報兇殺的情況，

and when he asked why, they just shrugged and said,

他問為什麼，而他們只是聳肩說：

"It's just criminals killing criminals."

「不過就是罪犯殺罪犯。」

The corrupt city council

腐敗的市議會

wanted to give police even more impunity for brutality.

還想給警方更多暴行免責的特權。

It's a really common tactic that's used worldwide

這是全世界常見的戰略，

when politicians want to posture as tough on crime

當政客想要裝作 對犯罪採取強悍態度

but don't actually want to change the status quo.

但又不想真正改變 現狀時就會採用。

And research shows it backfires all over the world.

研究顯示，在全世界， 結果都是事與願違。

If you throw a lot of low-level offenders into jails,

如果你把很多小犯罪者關入監獄，

usually already overcrowded jails,

通常是已經擠滿了人的監獄，

they learn from each other and they harden.

他們會互相學習， 從而變得更強硬。

They start to control the prisons, and from there, the streets.

他們會開始控制監獄， 接著再進一步控制街頭。

Instead, Mockus insisted that police begin investigating every death.

莫茨庫斯反而堅持警方 要開始調查每一起死亡。

He fought the right-wing city council,

他對抗右翼的市議會，

and he abandoned SWAT-style police tactics.

他捨棄警察特種部隊式的戰略。

And he fought the left-wing unions

他對抗左翼的公會，

and fired thousands of predatory cops.

開除了數千名掠奪成性的警察。

Honest police were finally free to do their jobs.

誠實的警察終於可以 好好做他們的工作了。

Mockus then challenged citizens.

接著，莫茨庫斯去挑戰市民。

He asked the middle class to stop opting out of their city,

他要求中產階級停止 置身於城市之外，

to follow traffic laws

要遵守交通法則，

and otherwise behave as if they shared the same community of fate.

行為舉止要像是他們也得 共同承擔這個社會的命運。

He asked the poor to uphold social norms against violence,

他要求窮人要支持 對抗暴力的社會規範，

often at immense personal risk.

通常這要冒著很大個人風險。

And he asked the wealthy to give 10 percent more in taxes, voluntarily.

他也要求有錢人 要自願多付 10% 的稅。

Sixty-three thousand people did.

六萬三千人照做了。

And at the end of the decade that spanned Mayor Mockus's two terms in office,

在橫跨莫茨庫斯市長 兩任任期的十年到尾聲時，

homicide in Bogotá was down 70 percent.

波哥大的兇殺下降了七成。

Audience: Whoo!

觀眾：哇！

(Applause)

（掌聲）

People in places with the most violence,

在最暴力的地方生活的人們，

whether it's Colombia or the United States,

不論是哥倫比亞或是美國，

can make the biggest difference.

都可以做到最大的改變。

The most important thing we can do is abandon the notion

我們能做的重中之重 是不要再認為

that some lives are just worth less than others,

有些人的命賤於其他人，

that someone deserves to be raped or murdered,

也不要認為有人被強暴 或謀殺是罪有應得，

because after all, they did something,

因為，畢竟，他們自己種下了因，

they stole or they did something to land themselves in prison

他們偷竊或做了什麼讓他們入獄，

where that kind of thing happens.

而監獄正是強暴或謀殺會發生的地方。

This devaluing of human life,

這種將人命貶低的行為，

a devaluing we barely admit even to ourselves,

這種我們都不願承認 自己會有的貶低行為，

is what allows the whole downward spiral to begin.

成為開端縱容事態每況愈下。

It's what allows a bullet shot in a gang war in Rio

正是這種行為縱容了 里約幫派鬥爭打出的子彈

to lodge in the head of a two-year-old girl

射入一個兩歲小女孩的頭顱，

climbing on a jungle gym nearby.

女孩當時在附近攀登架上玩耍。

And it's what allows a SWAT team hunting for a meth dealer in Georgia

正是這種行為縱容了

警察特種部隊在喬治亞州 追捕冰毒毒販時

to throw a flash bang grenade into the crib of a little boy,

把閃光彈丟到 小男孩的嬰兒床上，

exploding near his face and maiming him for life.

幾乎炸掉了他的臉， 讓他一輩子殘廢。

The fact is, most violence everywhere

事實是，不論在哪裡， 大部分遇到暴力的人

happens to people on the wrong side of town

都是在糟糕的時間身處在 鎮上糟糕的那一侧，

at the wrong time,

and some of those people are from communities

且當中有些人來自 我們眼裡非比尋常的社區。

that we consider quite different.

Some of them are people who have done horrible things.

當中有些人曾經做過可怕的事。

But reducing violence begins with privileging every human life,

但暴力的減少

始於將「特權」給予每一個人，

both because it's right

因為這是正確之舉，

and because only by prizing each life as worthy of at least due process,

也因為只有認定每個生命都 至少值得獲得合法訴訟程序，

can we create societies in which the lives of innocents are safe.

我們才有可能創造出讓無辜的人 能夠安全過生活的社會。

Second, recognize that today,

第二，要知道現今暴力的最大成因

inequality within our countries

並非國家之間的戰爭，

is a vastly greater cause of violence than war between countries.

而是國家內部的不平等。

Now, inequality leads to violence for a whole host of reasons,

不平等會導致暴力， 這背後的理由非常多，

but one of them is that it lets us separate ourselves

其中之一，是它會讓我們

把自己和鎮的另一側 所發生的事情切割開來。

from what's happening on the other side of town.

Those of us who are middle-class or wealthy,

我們當中那些 中產階級或富裕的人，

who are benefiting from these systems,

那些從這些體制受惠的人，

have to change them at immense cost to ourselves.

必須要付出巨大的代價來改變體制。

We have to pay enough taxes

我們必須要繳足夠的稅，

and then demand that our governments put good teachers in other kids' schools

接著要求我們的政府安排好老師 到其他孩子的學校教書，

and well-trained police to protect other peoples' neighborhoods.

安排訓練有素的警察 來保護其他人的街坊。

But, of course, that's not going to do any good

但，當然，如果政府會貪汙

if the government is stealing the money or fueling the violence,

或助長暴力，那也還是行不通，

and so we also need better politicians with better incentives.

所以我們也需要更好的政治人物， 出於更好的動機來做事。

The fact is, we actually know a lot about what it takes to reduce violence.

事實是，我們其實很清楚 減少暴力需要做的是什麼。

It's policies like putting more cops

是「集中警力到少數嚴重暴力頻發地」

in the few places where most violence occurs.

這樣的政策。

But they don't fit easily into the boxes of the Left or the Right,

但這些政策不容易符合 左派或右派的框架，

and so you need really honest politicians

所以會需要真正誠實的政治人物，

who are willing to buck knee-jerk partisanship

他們願意反抗一觸即發的黨派偏護，

and implement solutions.

並去實踐解決方案。

And if we want good politicians to run,

如果我們希望好的 政治人物出來競選，

we need to start respecting politicians.

我們就得開始尊重政治人物。

There's also a lot we can do to fight privilege violence in other countries.

要對抗其他國家的特權暴力， 還有很多是我們能做的。

The most violent regimes tend to be fueled by drugs,

最暴力的政權似乎 背後都有毒品的支持，

and then they launder the profits through financial systems

接著，他們會將利益洗白，

透過紐約和倫敦的金融體制來洗，

in New York and London,

through real-estate transactions,

透過房地產交易來洗，

and through high-end resorts.

及透過高檔度假勝地來洗。

If you use drugs,

如果你吸毒，

know your supply chain top to bottom,

先從頭到尾了解一下整個供應鏈，

or admit the amount of pain you're willing to cause others

不然就承認你願意為了自身的享樂

for your own pleasure.

願意造成他人多少痛苦吧。

Meanwhile, I would love to see one of those tourist sites

同時，我希望能見到某個遊客景點

team up with investigative journalists

能和調查記者合作，

and create a little tiny icon --

設計一個小圖示 --

right next to the one for free WiFi and if a place has a swimming pool,

就標在免費無線網路 和是否有游泳池的圖示旁邊，

there could be a little tiny gun

圖示可以是一支小小的槍，

for "likely criminal money-laundering front."

代表「疑似犯罪洗錢的掩護」。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But until then,

但在那之前，

if you're booking a place in a dangerous country,

如果你要在危險國家中 預訂一個住處，

whether that's Jamaica or New Orleans,

不論是牙買加或者紐奧良，

do a little web research,

先上網作點功課， 看看是否牽涉犯罪。

see if you can see any criminal ties.

And, to make that easier,

若要讓這更容易做到，

support legislation

就要支持讓我們的金融體制

that makes our financial systems more transparent --

更透明的立法——

things like banning anonymous company ownership.

比如禁止匿名持有公司。

Now, this all probably sounds pretty quixotic,

上述的操作可能和 「回收罐子」一樣，

kind of like recycling your cans,

聽著很美好，

just a tiny drop in the ocean of a gigantic problem,

但對於超級大的問題而言 不過是滄海一粟，

but that's actually a misconception.

但那其實是錯誤的觀念。

Homicide has been falling for centuries.

數世紀以來，兇殺都在下降。

Battle deaths have been dropping for decades.

數十年來，戰爭 死亡人數都在下降。

In places where people have demanded change,

在人民要求改變的地方，

violent death has fallen, from Colombia to New York City,

從哥倫比亞到紐約市 暴力死亡人數都有所下降，

where homicide is down 85 percent since 1990.

自 1990 年起兇殺案 已經減少了 85%。

The fact is, violence will always be with us,

事實是，暴力會永遠和我們共存，

but it's not a constant.

但它不是一個不變的常數。

It has been falling for centuries, and it could fall further faster.

數世紀來它一直在下降， 而且還可以下降得更快。

Could it drop by 25 percent in the next quarter century, a third?

有沒有可能在接下來的二十五年 再降 25%？三分之一？

Many of us actually think it could.

我們許多人真心認為可以。

I think of all the kids who'd grow up with their dads,

我想到了每一個 有父親陪伴成長的孩子，

all the families that get their sisters back,

每一個能看到兄弟姐妹回家的家庭。

their brothers.

All it needs is one small push.

這一切要的只是一臂之力。

It needs us to care.

要的是我們去在乎。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）