An economic case for protecting the planet | Naoko Ishii

84,508 views ・ 2018-02-14

TED


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翻译人员: Xinran Yu 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang
00:13
Good evening, everyone.
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各位晚上好。
00:16
I am from Japan,
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我来自日本,
00:18
so I'd like to start with a story about Japanese fishing villages.
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在此我想先跟大家分享 一个日本渔村的故事。
00:24
In the past, every fisherman was tempted to catch as many as fish as possible,
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过去,每个渔民都渴望 捕到的鱼越多越好,
00:32
but if everybody did that,
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但是如果所有人都这么做的话,
00:35
the fish, common shared resource in the community, would disappear.
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作为社群共享资源的 鱼类资源便会消失。
00:41
The result would be hardship and poverty for everyone.
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所有人将面临随之而来的 艰难困苦的日子。
00:47
This happened in some cases,
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这种情况时有发生,
00:51
but it did not happen in other cases.
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但是也会出现截然不同的境况。
00:56
In these communities,
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在这些村落里,
00:58
the fishermen developed a kind of social contract
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渔民建立起了某种社会契约,
01:03
that told each one of them to hold back a bit to prevent overfishing.
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告诉大家捕鱼的时候得 悠着点,避免过度捕获。
01:09
The fisherman would keep an eye on each other.
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渔民之间互相监督。
01:13
There would be a penalty if you were caught cheating.
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一旦被抓到违规,就要面临罚款。
01:18
But once the benefit of a social contract became clear to everyone,
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可是当大家一旦体会 这个社会契约的好处,
01:25
the incentive to cheat dramatically dropped.
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渔民的违规操作就急剧减少。
01:30
We find the same story around the world.
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这样类似的故事在 世界其他地方都有发生。
01:34
This is how villagers in medieval Europe
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就如中世纪欧洲的村民
01:38
managed pasture and forests.
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如何管理牧场与森林。
01:42
This is how communities in Asia managed water,
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就如亚洲的村落如何管理水资源,
01:46
and this is how indigenous peoples in the Amazon managed wildlife.
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以及亚马逊那些聪明的 原住民如何管理野生动物那样。
01:53
These communities realized they relied on a finite, shared resource.
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这些群体明白到他们都 依赖有限且共享的资源。
02:01
They developed rules and practices on how to manage those resources,
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他们建立起规则并用 实践来管理这些资源,
02:07
and they changed their behavior
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并改变自己的行为,
02:09
so that they could continue to rely on those shared resources tomorrow
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不过度捕捞,不过度放牧,
02:16
by not overfishing,
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不污染或者
02:19
not overgrazing,
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耗竭水资源,
02:20
not polluting or depleting water streams today.
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如此一来,日后便能继续 依赖于这些共享资源,
02:26
This is a story of the commons,
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这是一个有关“公共资源”的故事,
02:29
and also how to avoid the so-called tragedy of the commons.
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关于如何避免所谓的 “公地悲剧”的故事。
02:37
But this is also a story of an economy
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但同时也是一个有关经济体的故事,
02:40
that was mainly local,
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主要是本地经济体,
02:43
where everybody had a very strong sense of belonging.
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在这样的经济体里 每个人都有强烈的归属感。
02:49
Our economies are no longer local.
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我们的经济体不再局限于本地。
02:52
When we moved away from being local,
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当我们从本地迁移出去,
02:55
we started to lose our connection to the commons.
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我们渐渐失去了与公共资源的联系。
03:00
We carried economic objectives, goals and systems beyond the local,
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我们实现了超越本地之外的 经济目的,目标,系统,
03:06
but we did not carry the notion of taking care of the commons.
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但我们却未有过 维护公共资源的概念。
03:13
So our oceans, forests,
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以至于我们的海洋,森林,
03:17
once very close to us as our local commons,
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那些从前与我们 关系紧密的本地公共资源
03:21
moved very far away from us.
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与我们越来越疏远。
03:25
So today, we pump millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the air,
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如今,我们不断向空气里 排放数以百万吨的温室气体,
03:33
we dump plastics, fertilizers and industrial waste
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我们倾倒塑料,农药和工业废品
03:38
into the rivers and oceans,
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到河流和海洋里去,
03:40
and we cut down forests that absorb CO2.
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砍伐吸收二氧化碳的森林。
03:45
We make the wild biodiversity much more fragile.
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我们使得野生生物 多样性变得更加脆弱。
03:51
We seem to have totally forgotten
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我们似乎已经完全忘了
03:53
that there is such a thing as global commons:
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有一种被称为 全球公共资源的东西:
03:58
air, water, forests and biodiversity.
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空气,水,森林和生物多样性。
04:05
Now, it is modern science
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而现在,这是一门现代科学,
04:08
that reminds us how vital the global commons are.
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提醒我们全球公共资源是多么重要。
04:14
In 2009, a group of scientists proposed
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在2009年,一群科学家倡议
04:19
how to assess the health of the global commons.
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如何评估全球公共资源的健康。
04:23
They defined nine planetary boundaries vital to our survival,
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他们定义了对我们的生存 至关重要的九大环境安全界限,
04:29
then they measured how far we could go
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然后他们测算我们到底 能去到什么程度,
04:33
before we cross over the tipping points or thresholds
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便会触碰到临界点或阈值,
04:37
that would lead us to the irreversible or even catastrophic change.
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致使我们走向无法挽回, 甚至是毁天灭地的变化。
04:45
This is where we were in the 1950s.
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图上显示的是我们 在20世纪50年代。
04:51
We broadly remained within safe operating space,
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我们处于十分宽裕的 安全活动范围中,
04:56
marked by the green line.
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以绿线为标志。
05:00
But look at where we are now.
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但是看看我们现在的处境。
05:04
We have crossed four of those boundaries,
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我们已经超越了其中四大界限,
05:09
and we will be crossing others in the future.
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未来我们也将跨越其他界限。
05:13
How did we end up in this situation?
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我们是怎样走到今天这一步的呢?
05:17
Well, my personal story may tell us something.
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我想,从我的个人经历 也许能看出点端倪。
05:23
Five years ago, I was appointed
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五年前我被委任
05:25
as CEO of the GEF, Global Environment Facility,
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全球环境基金,GEF的CEO一职,
05:30
but I am not a conservationist
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但是我并不是一个保守党,
05:33
or an environmental activist.
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或者一个环境活动家。
05:37
I am an economist,
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我是一名经济学者,
05:39
and for the last 30 years,
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在过去的30年中,
05:41
I had worked for public finance in my home country and around the world.
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我在日本以及世界各地 从事公共财政工作。
05:48
I can tell you one thing for sure:
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我可以肯定的一件事是:
05:51
during these 30 years,
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在这30年中,
05:53
the notion of the global commons never crossed my mind.
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全球公共资源的概念 从未在我的脑海浮现过。
05:58
I didn't have a single conversation about the global commons
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我从未与同事进行过任何一次
06:02
with my colleagues.
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有关全球公共资源的讨论。
06:05
This tells me that the notion of the global commons
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这就告诉我全球公共资源这个概念,
06:09
was not really entering into the big money decisions
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并未真正地进入重大的金钱决策中,
06:13
like state budgets or investment plans.
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比如国家预算或投资计划。
06:18
And I'm wondering, why do we have this sheer ignorance
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同时我也在想,为什么 我们会对全球公共资源
06:21
about the global commons,
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如此无知浅薄,
06:23
including me, myself?
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包括我自己?
06:27
One possible explanation might be
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一个可能的解释是
06:31
that until recently, it didn't really matter too much.
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这个问题一直得不到 重视,直到最近。
06:36
Even if we mess up some part of the environment,
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尽管我们搞砸了环境的一部分,
06:40
we were not fundamentally changing the functions of the earth system.
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这还不至于从根本上引起 地球系统的功能紊乱。
06:47
The global commons had still enough capacity
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全球公共资源仍然拥有庞大的容量
06:51
to take the punches we gave them.
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接受我们每一次的冲击。
06:54
In fact, the fish were still plentiful,
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事实上,鱼依然很多,
06:59
the fields for grazing were still vast.
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可供放牧的土地依然广阔。
07:04
Our mistake was to assume
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但是我们的错误在于认为
07:07
that the capacity of the earth for self-repair
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地球的自我修复能力
07:10
had no limits.
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是无止境的。
07:12
It does have limits.
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但是它是有极限的。
07:15
The message from the science is very clear:
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科学所传递的信息已经很清晰:
07:19
we humans have become an overwhelming force
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我们人类已经成为一股巨大的力量,
07:22
to determine the future living conditions on earth,
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能左右地球未来的居住条件,
07:26
and what's more, we are running out of time.
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而且我们的时间已经不多了。
07:30
If we don't act on them,
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如果我们现在不行动,
07:34
we will be losing the global commons.
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我们将渐渐失去全球公共资源。
07:37
It's only our generation who are able to preserve it --
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只有我们这一代人能够保护它——
07:40
preserve the commons as we know them.
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保护这些我们熟悉的公有物。
07:44
Now is the time we start managing the global commons
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现在正是我们开始管理 全球公共资源的时候,
07:49
as our parents or our grandparents managed their local commons.
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就如我们的父辈或祖辈 管理他们的本地公共资源那样。
07:56
The first thing we need to do
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我们所需要做的第一件事
07:59
is to simply recognize that we do have the global commons
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很简单,就是认识到我们 这些全球公共资源确实存在,
08:05
and they are very, very important.
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以及它们非常非常的重要。
08:09
Then we need to build the stewardship of the global commons
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接着我们需要将 全球公共财产的管理职责,
08:13
into all of our thinking,
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将此融入到我们的思维,
08:15
our business, our economy,
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融入到我们的商业,我们的经济,
08:17
our policy-making --
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融入到我们的政策制定——
08:19
in all of our actions.
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融入到我们所有的行动当中。
08:21
We need to recreate the social contract of the fishing villages
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我们需要在全球范围内 重新建立起渔村里的
08:27
on the global scale.
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那种社会契约。
08:31
But what does it mean in practice?
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但是到底要如何实践呢?
08:34
Where to start with?
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从什么时候开始?
08:37
I see there are four key economic systems
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我认为有四个关键的经济系统
08:41
that fundamentally need to change.
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需要从根本上发生改变。
08:44
First, we need to change our cities.
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第一,我们需要改变我们的城市。
08:48
By 2050, two thirds of our population will live in cities.
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到2050年,我们三分之二的 人口将会在城市居住。
08:54
We need green cities.
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我们需要绿色城市。
08:57
Second, we need to change our energy system.
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第二,我们需要改变我们的能源系统。
09:00
The world economy must sharply decarbonize,
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全球经济必须快速去碳化,
09:04
essentially in one generation.
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尤其需要在一代人的时间里完成。
09:08
Third, we need to change our production-consumption system.
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第三,我们需要改变 我们的生产消费系统。
09:13
We need to break away from current take-make-waste consumption patterns.
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我们需要从当前的“索取-生产-废弃”的 消费模式中脱离出来。
09:20
And finally, we need to change our food system,
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最后,我们需要改变 我们的食物系统,
09:25
what to eat and how to produce it.
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吃什么,以及如何生产食物。
09:28
And all of those four systems
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上述的这四大系统
09:31
are putting enormous pressure on the global commons,
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正给全球公共资源施加巨大的压力,
09:35
and it's also very difficult to flip them.
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并且扭转这些系统是十分困难的。
09:38
They are extremely complex,
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它们异常复杂,
09:40
with many decision-makers, actors involved.
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这牵扯到许多决策人,活动者。
09:45
Let's take the example of the food system.
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让我们以食物系统为例。
09:50
Food production is currently responsible
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食品生产目前占据
09:54
for one quarter of greenhouse gas emissions.
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温室气体排放量的四分之一,
09:58
It is also a main user of the world's water resources.
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同时也是世界用水大户。
10:02
In fact, 70 percent of today's water is used to grow crops.
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事实上,今天70%的水 被用来灌溉农作物。
10:09
Vast areas of tropical forest are used for agriculture.
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大面积的热带森林区被转作农耕地。
10:15
This deforestation drives extinction.
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去森林化导致了物种灭绝。
10:18
In fact, we are losing species 1,000 times faster
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事实上,人为导致的 物种灭绝速度比自然灭绝
10:23
than the natural rate.
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快1000倍。
10:26
And on top of all of that bad news,
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这还不是最坏的消息,
10:29
one third of food produced today globally
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当今全球生产的食物有三分之一
10:34
is not eaten.
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从未被食用,
10:35
It's wasted.
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而是白白浪费掉了。
10:39
But there is the good news,
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但是好消息还是有的,
10:42
good signs.
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有一些好的征兆。
10:44
Coalitions of stakeholders
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利益相关者结成联盟,
10:47
are now coming together to try to transform the food system
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正携手努力改变食物系统,
10:52
with one shared goal:
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只为实现同一个目标:
10:54
how to produce enough healthy food for everyone,
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如何同时为每个人生产足够的
10:59
at the same time,
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健康食物,
试着去减少,大幅降低
11:01
to try to cut, to sharply reduce,
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11:04
the footprint from the food system on the global commons.
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食物系统在全球公共资源上 留下的伤害。
11:10
I had an opportunity
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我曾经有个机会
11:12
to fly over the Indonesian island of Sumatra,
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飞过印度尼西亚的Sumatra群岛,
11:17
and I saw with my own eyes
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我亲眼看见
11:19
the massive deforestation
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大面积的森林被砍伐,
11:21
to make room for palm oil plantations.
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那片土地被用作棕榈油种植。
11:27
By the way, palm oil is included in thousands of food products
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随便一提,我们日常食用的 成千上万种食品当中都含有
11:31
we eat every day.
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棕榈油。
11:33
The global demand for palm oil is just increasing.
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全球的棕榈油需求正在不断上升。
11:38
In Sumatra, I met smallholder farmers
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在Sumatra,我遇见了 一些小型种植场的庄园主,
11:42
who need to make a day-to-day living from growing oil palm.
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他们的日常生活 就依赖于种植油棕榈。
11:47
I met global food companies,
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我还访问了国际食品公司,
11:50
financial institutions
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金融机构,
11:52
and local government officials.
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以及当地政府的工作人员。
11:56
All of them told me that they can't make the change by themselves,
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所有人都告诉我他们不可能 凭借一己之力改变这一切,
12:01
and only by working together under a kind of new contract,
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只有在某种新的契约之下同心协力,
12:07
or a new practice,
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或在新的实践的约束之下,
12:08
do they have a chance to protect tropical forests.
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他们才有保护热带森林的机会。
12:13
So it's so encouraging to see, at least for the last few years,
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至少在过去几年,我们目睹了 这样令人鼓舞的光景,
12:18
this new coalition among these committed actors along the supply chain
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在供应链中这些充满责任感的 活跃人士结成同盟
12:24
come together to try to transform the food system.
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携手尝试改变食物系统。
12:29
In fact, what they are trying to do
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事实上,他们正努力
12:32
is to create a new kind of social contract to manage the global commons.
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创造一个新型的社会契约 来管理全球公共资源。
12:41
All changes start at home,
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一切改变始于家门,
12:45
at your place and at my place.
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从你的地方,从我的地方开始。
12:48
At GEF, Global Environment Facility,
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在全球环境基金GEF,
12:52
we have now a new strategy,
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我们现在有一个新的策略,
12:54
and we put the global commons at its center.
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以全球公共资源为中心。
13:00
I hope we won't be the only ones.
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我希望我们不是孤军奋战,
13:04
If everybody stays on the sidelines, waiting for others to step in,
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如果所有人袖手旁观, 等着其他人行动,
13:09
the global commons will continue to deteriorate,
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那么全球公共资源将继续退化,
13:13
and everybody will be much worse off.
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所有人的处境终将更困难。
13:18
We need to save ourselves from the tragedy of the commons.
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我们需要从“公地悲剧”中拯救自己。
13:24
So, I invite all of you to embrace the global commons.
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因此,我现在邀请你们 一起拥抱全球公共资源。
13:30
Please do remember that global commons do exist
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请谨记全球公共资源确实存在,
13:34
and are waiting for your stewardship.
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正等待你们各司其职。
13:38
We all share one planet in common.
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我们所有人都在同一个星球上。
13:42
We breathe the same air,
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我们呼吸同样的空气,
13:44
we drink the same water,
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喝同样的水,
13:46
we depend on the same oceans, forests, and biodiversity.
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我们依赖于同样的海洋, 森林和生物多样性。
13:52
There is no space left on earth for egoism.
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在这个地球上,盲目自大 毫无立足之地。
13:57
The global commons must be kept within their safe operating space,
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全球公共资源必须在它们 安全的活动空间中被好好保护,
14:02
and we can only do it together.
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而我们必须同心协力来实现。
14:08
Thank you so much.
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谢谢大家。
14:09
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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