How to rebuild the global economy | Kristalina Georgieva

翻译人员: Tian Tang 校对人员: Ziyao Wang

Chris Anderson: I get now to introduce

克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）： 现在，我要向大家介绍

one of the most powerful women in the world.

世界上最有权势的女性之一。

I mean, if we are to escape from the mess that we're in right now,

如果我们想要摆脱 当前这一糟糕的局面，

she is going to play a major part in helping us do that.

她在其中扮演着 不可或缺的角色。

She's the head of the International Monetary Fund,

她是国际货币基金组织的首席执行官，

a delight to welcome here Kristalina Georgieva.

让我们欢迎 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 （Kristalina Georgieva）。

Kristalina, welcome.

欢迎来到这里， 克里斯塔利娜。

Kristalina Georgieva: Great to be with you, Chris.

克里斯塔利娜（Kristalina Georgieva）： 非常荣幸见到你， 克里斯。

Thank you for having me.

谢谢你的邀请。

CA: So you just took on this role late last year,

克里斯：你是在去年 下半年才上任的，

and within four months, boom, COVID arrives.

然而仅仅四个月后， 新冠疫情就爆发了。

That is one heck of an introduction to a new job.

对一份新工作来说， 这真是一个艰难的开端。

How are you doing?

现在情况怎么样呢？

KG: Well, I find strength in action.

克里斯塔利娜： 我在行动中找到了力量。

And at the Fund,

基金组织

we have been, from day one on this crisis,

从这场疫情开始的第一天起，

leaning forward with everything we have

就一直致力于 用我们的一切资源

to provide lifelines to countries,

援助各国，

and that means to people and businesses.

这也意味着 支持各国的人民和企业。

Already, we have received over 90 requests

我们收到了超过 90 个国家的求助，

and we have offered, to 56 countries,

我们已经为 56 个国家

critical financial packages.

提供了关键的经济支持。

CA: You've described this pandemic as a crisis like no other.

克里斯: 你说这场疫情 是一场前所未有的危机。

In what way a crisis like no other?

你为什么这样认为？

KG: Truly like no other.

克里斯塔利娜: 这确实是前所未有的。

First, never before

首先，我们从未像这样

we will inflict on the economy consciously so much pain

有意识地牺牲经济增长

to fight a virus and save lives.

来对抗疫情， 拯救人们的生命。

We are asking businesses not to produce

我们要求企业停产，

and consumers not to go out and consume.

要求消费者停止 外出和消费。

At the Fund, we labeled this "the Great Lockdown."

在货币组织，我们称 这个局面为“经济大封锁”。

Second,

其次，

never before

对于世界上 每一个人来说，

there would be such a rapid change of fortunes

以前从未有过

practically for everybody around the world.

这样迅猛的财富变化。

In January, I was in Davos,

今年 1 月，我在达沃斯 (Davos)

talking about "anemic growth," growth of three percent.

谈到了“经济增长疲软”， 也就是增长（低于）百分之三。

In April, during our spring meetings, it was already minus three percent.

4 月春季会议的时候， 经济以负百分之三的速度增长。

In January,

在 1 月，

we predicted 160 countries to have positive income per capita growth.

我们预计 160 个国家会 实现人均收入的正向涨幅。

Now it is 170 countries with negative income per capita growth.

而现在 170 个国家的 人均收入呈现了负增长。

Now this, we call "the Great Reversal."

我们称其为”大逆转”。

Very painful.

这是很惨痛的。

And three, uncertainty.

第三点， 不确定性。

We always live with uncertainty, Chris,

我们的生活中总是 充满了不确定，克里斯。

but this time,

但这次，

it is the uncertainty of a novel coronavirus

正是新冠肺炎的不确定性，

that policymakers have to integrate.

让决策者们必须 团结在一起。

We at the Fund combine epidemiological projections

货币组织将流行病学的预测

with our traditional macroeconomic modeling

和传统的宏观经济模型相结合，

to see through that uncertainty.

来剖析那种不确定性。

I must add to this,

必须补充的一点是，

I very much hope that when we go on the other side in the recovery,

我非常希望经济复苏的时候，

we can use a new term and call it "the Great Transformation."

我们能用一个 新的词汇：“大转型”。

Make the world a better place.

让世界变得更好。

CA: Well, I'll be excited to come on to that in a bit.

克里斯: 我非常期待那个局面。

But in this moment of responding to the crisis,

但就现在而言， 针对这场危机，

the main tool that seems to have been executed,

最主要的措施 好像已经实行了，

at least by the rich countries,

至少许多富裕国家

has been this massive economic stimulus,

已经实行了数万亿美元的

to the tune of trillions of dollars.

大规模经济刺激。

Is that a wise response?

这是理智的措施吗？

KG: It is a necessity.

克里斯塔利娜: 这是必要的。

And you don't hear the Fund often telling countries,

你很少听到货币组织 对国家们说，

"Please, spend.

“请随便花钱，

Spend as much as you can."

能花多少是多少。”

And that is what we do now.

但这是我们现在 正在做的。

We do add to that,

我们确实强调，

"And keep the receipts.

“记得保留收据。

Don't lose accountability to the citizens, to the tax payers."

不要失信于公民和纳税人。”

The reason financial injection is necessary,

财政刺激的重要性，

these fiscal measures of almost nine trillion dollars are necessary,

这近 9 万亿美元的 财政刺激措施十分必要的原因是，

is because when the economy is standing still,

当经济停滞不前时，

unless there is help,

除非有援助措施

unless there is monetary policy stimulus,

和货币政策的刺激，

firms are going to go massively bankrupt,

否则企业就会经历大规模的破产，

people would be unemployed,

人们会失业，

the economy would be scarred.

经济会变得伤痕累累。

When we go to the other side,

当我们开始经历 复苏的时候，

this scarring is going to make the recovery much more difficult.

这种伤痕会让经济复苏 变得更加困难。

So that is a wise thing to do,

所以，这确实是 理智的措施，

and it helps the fact that central banks in major economies

它可以让中央银行 在经济体中

have been acting in a synchronized manner

发挥同步性的作用，

and that fiscal stimulus came really, really fast.

让财政刺激更快生效。

This is how we see people being able to go through this

我们认为人们可以通过这样的方式

very, very tough time.

渡过这段非常艰难的时期。

CA: But how far can it go?

克里斯：但这种措施 可以持续到什么程度呢？

Because it's been described, in a sense, as "printing money" --

因为现在的情况 被描述成是“印刷钞票”——

governments are issuing more and more bonds

政府在不停地 发行更多的债券，

that have to paid back at some point.

而政府需要在之后 还清这些债券。

There's this term, in economics, of the Minsky moment,

经济学有个说法—— “明斯基时刻（the Minsky moment）”

where things can go very well for a while,

说的是事情都进行得 很顺利的一段时期，

as everyone believes that, you know,

就像每个人都相信的那样，

that the train can keep running,

这辆火车可以 继续在轨道上行驶，

the cycle can keep turning,

经济周期会继续循环，

you know, that governments have all this money.

钱都在政府手里。

At some point, though, doesn't that break down?

但在某一刻，这一切 不会突然崩溃吗？

Do you worry that we may be nearing a Minsky moment,

你担心我们正在迎接 一段明斯基时刻吗？

where, like Michael in Mary Poppins

就像电影《欢乐满人间》 （Mary Poppins）里的迈克尔，

grabs his tuppence and starts a run on the bank.

拿了两便士去挤兑银行一样。

Is there stress in the international financial system now

现在的国际金融体系 有没有任何压力

that concerns you,

让你忧心，

that makes you feel that we may be running out of headroom?

让你觉得我们可能 已经捉襟见肘了？

KG: Of course, this cannot go on forever.

克里斯塔利娜: 当然了， 这种情形不可能持续下去。

I, for one, have trust in our scientists,

首先，我相信科学家们，

I think we will see breakthroughs,

我认为我们会看到突破，

and we will see also people in businesses

我们也会看到商业人士

getting accustomed to social distancing,

开始习惯社交距离，

to micromeasures that protect from spreading the disease.

这种防止疾病传播的措施。

We have seen very massive injection in health systems,

我们看到大规模的援助 进入医疗系统，

so hospitals can actually treat people that are coming for help.

医院得以治疗 来寻求帮助的病人。

Obviously, if it is to go for a very long time,

显然，如果这种情况 持续非常长的时间，

we would be worried.

我们会开始担忧，

For now,

目前，

what we are projecting

我们预测

is that there would be a gradual reopening --

经济会逐步重新开放——

we see it already happening in a number of countries.

我们现在已经在 几个国家看到了。

And we project for next year, 2021,

并且我们预测， 到 2021 年，

a partial recovery.

我们会在一定程度上 实现经济复苏。

Not a full recovery, unfortunately,

遗憾的是，彻底复苏很难，

but coming to a better place.

但会恢复到一个比较好的程度。

Now, what helps us

现在帮助我们的，

is something that I don't particularly love,

是我不太喜欢的方式，

but I see it as a positive feature --

但我能看到 它积极的一面——

very low interest rates,

非常低的利率，

in some cases, negative --

甚至有些情况下， 负利率——

that allows this injection of fiscal measures and liquidity

可以允许这种 财政注入措施和流动性

to be sustained over a number of years.

持续好几年。

And for now, we do not see on the horizon

当下我们不觉得

any return to increase in interest rates.

将来会有利率的提高。

So low for longer,

长期的低利率

and that is, in that environment, a helpful feature.

在这种环境下 是非常有帮助的。

CA: I mean, the financial crisis of 2008

克里斯：2008 年的金融危机

came perilously close to breaking the entire financial system --

险些让整个金融系统崩溃，

arguably, it did that.

也有人认为金融系统已经崩溃了。

By most people's calculation,

很多人预测，

this is a far worse impact to the economy overall.

这次疫情对经济的负面影响 还要更严重。

Did the world learn something from 2008

我们有从 2008 年的危机中

that has helped us so far be resilient this time?

学到任何帮助适应 当下情形的东西吗?

KG: What the world learned is that the financial system

克里斯塔利娜: 我们知道了

has to be tested

金融体系需要被检验、

and then strengthened to withstand shocks.

被强化，以经受更大的冲击。

And that is helping us tremendously today.

这一点现在 给了我们很大帮助。

The banking system is resilient,

银行系统是有弹性的，

and even in the nonbanking financial institutions,

甚至在非银行的 金融机构中，

there is more attention paid

大家更关注

to how far can you go without running into trouble.

它能顺利地运行多久。

I would say,

我想说，

if you look around the world,

如果你环顾世界，

the most important lesson then was "build resilience to shocks."

我们学到的最重要一课就是 建立应对危机的弹性机制。

Those who have done it cope now better.

那些已经这么做的国家， 现在应付得更好一些。

And those who have not done it are in a much tougher spot.

而那些没有这么做的国家 则陷入了更加艰难的境地。

And actually, for the Fund,

实际上， 对货币组织来说，

what we are praying

我们都祈祷

is that we will come out of this crisis with this lesson about resilience

我们在走出这次危机的同时认识到，

being spread beyond the banking system,

弹性机制应该应用于 银行体系外的更多领域，

so we actually have this crisis-management mindset

我们要调整心态， 适应这个危机重重的世界，

for a world that is inevitably going to be more shock-prone,

这是不可避免的，

because of climate

因为气候，

and also because of the sheer density of economic and social life on our planet.

也因为地球上经济 和社会生活的密度。

CA: In your role,

克里斯：从你的角度看，

you're paying special attention to the situation in developing countries.

你特别关注 发展中国家的状况，

And it does seem that they're facing a really terrible situation right now.

而这些国家似乎也确实 面对着非常糟糕的局面。

Many of them have significant debt denominated in dollars.

他们当中很多都背负着 巨额的美元债务。

In the current crisis,

在这场危机中，

their currencies are depreciating against the dollar,

他们的货币兑美元 正在贬值，

making it nigh impossible for them to execute the kind of injection,

让他们几乎不可能实行这种

stimulus injections,

刺激性的财政扶持，

that the rich countries are doing

而相对发达的国家正在这么做，

and seems to be the only way out.

这似乎是摆脱困境的唯一办法。

So that seems like a really dangerous cycle.

这看来像是一个 非常危险的循环。

Is there any way to break that cycle?

有什么办法可以 打破这种局面吗？

KG: Well, let me first separate

克里斯塔利娜： 让我先来谈谈

countries that have built strong fundamentals.

已经建立了成熟的经济系统的国家。

And now in this crisis,

现在在这场危机中，

as we are receiving incoming data,

我们收到的数据表明——

not very many, but there are still some positive surprises,

数据不是特别多， 但也有一些积极的信号——

and they come from countries that have built stronger buffers,

来自那些已经建立了 强劲的经济缓冲

stronger fundamentals,

和扎实的经济基础，

have been more disciplined during good times.

在正常时期也 有着良好规划的国家。

But indeed, we do see

但是，我们也确实看到，

quite a number of emerging markets, developing countries,

有相当一部分的新兴市场， 发展中国家

faced with multiple pressures.

面临了多方面的压力。

They had the hit from the coronavirus,

他们受到了 来自新冠的冲击，

many of them with weak health systems.

他们中的许多国家 医疗保健体系非常薄弱。

Then, they have the high level of indebtedness,

他们还有因为以往的危机

from before the crisis,

而导致的高额债务，

which creates a much more difficult environment for them.

这也为他们的艰难处境雪上加霜。

Then, many of them are commodity exporters.

他们中的许多是商品出口国。

Commodity prices, oil price,

商品和石油价格

they went down very dramatically,

下滑得非常厉害。

that hits them again.

同样对他们造成了冲击。

Many rely on remittances.

许多国家依赖于汇款，

Remittances shrunk some 20 to 30 percent.

而有些汇款已经缩减了 百分之二十到三十。

And then you have a number of countries that are highly dependent on tourism.

还有一些国家 高度依赖旅游业。

Tourism is the hardest hit sector, or one of the hardest hit.

旅游业是受到冲击 最严重的领域之一。

So, very tough for these countries,

所以，疫情对那些国家 来说非常艰难，

but this is why institutions like mine have been wisely created.

但这也是像我们这样的机构 创立的原因。

The IMF, the World Bank, the regional development banks,

国际货币基金组织、 世界银行、地域性发展银行

we work very closely together in this crisis.

在这场危机中紧密合作。

The IMF, fortunately,

幸运的是， 国际货币基金组织

that was one of the lessons from the 2008-2009 crisis --

从 2008-2009 年的危机中学到的是，

make sure that in the center of the financial safety net is an IMF

要保证金融安全网的中心 是有雄厚的财政实力的

with financial strength.

国际货币基金组织。

We have four times more money to lend today

我们现在可借用的资金规模

than we had then.

超过了之前的四倍——

From 250 billion to one trillion dollars.

从 2500 亿增加到了 1 万亿美元。

And of course,

而且我们肯定

we are deploying these funds

会把这些资金分配给

exactly for the countries that need us the most.

那些急需援助的国家。

And we did one more thing.

我们还做了一件事。

With David Malpass, the president of the World Bank,

和世界银行行长 大卫·马尔帕斯（David Malpass）一起，

we called for a debt moratorium for the poorest countries

呼吁最贫穷国家 延期向其官方双边债权国

to their official bilateral creditors.

偿还债务。

And people tend to say, "Oh, we don't work together,

人们总是说， “我们没有团结在一起，

it's not good enough."

这还远远不够。”

But here is an area where we made this call in late March,

但我们在三月末 和四月中的时候，

针对一个地区做出了这项决议，

and in mid-April,

the G20 agreed on this moratorium.

G20 国家同意了 这项延期还债的举措。

Amazing, we had the Paris Club, China,

令人惊喜的是， 巴黎俱乐部、中国

the Gulf countries,

和海湾阿拉伯国家，

all agreeing that we should not suffocate the poorest countries

全部同意我们不应该 对最贫困的国家逼得太紧，

by asking them to pay their debts

当他们的经济还处于停滞的时候

when their economies are standing still.

要求他们还清债务。

CA: Is it possible that some developing countries

克里斯：有没有可能 一些发展中国家

are overdoing the lockdown policy?

把封锁政策做过头了呢？

I mean, if large numbers of your citizens are already struggling to stay alive,

如果大部分国民在 挣扎着维持生计，

isn't it almost like a death sentence to order them not to leave their homes?

让他们呆在家中 是不是就等于坐以待毙？

KG: Well, Chris, one of the most heartbreaking conversations I would have

克里斯塔利娜：我进行过的 最令人心碎的谈话之一，

is with leaders of countries where they have to stare in the face

是与面临生死抉择的 国家领导人——

a choice of people dying from the virus

是让国民死于病毒，

or dying from hunger.

还是死于饥饿。

And it is a very dramatic situation for them.

这对他们来说是 非常艰难的选择。

Where you have a very large part of your economy

在这段时期，大部分经济

being informal,

不能正常运行，

where people live hand-to-mouth every day,

人们每天过着 仅能糊口的生活，

the lockdowns we have in advanced economies

那些在发达经济体中施行的封锁

are not quite applicable,

不是非常适用。

but even there,

但是就算这样，

countries are doing really well in social distancing

很多国家在尽可能 保持社交距离上

to the extent it is possible.

还是做得非常好。

Many of the countries in Africa

许多非洲国家

were very early to step up preventive measures.

非常早就开始了防范措施。

Why?

为什么呢？

They learned from the Ebola, they learned from prior crises

他们从埃博拉和 以前的危机中学到，

that hygiene,

卫生防疫，

taking any measure you can really helps.

采取任何手段去保证公共卫生， 真的可以起到很大的作用。

So again, I cannot stress enough

重申一次，我认为再怎么强调

how important is solidarity with these countries.

团结对这些国家来说有多重要，

How important it is for my institution to be there for them in a timely manner.

我们这些机构及时提供的帮助 有多重要都不过分。

And we do it.

并且我们做到了。

CA: Whitney.

克里斯：惠特妮。

Whitney Pennington Rogers: Hi there, thank you,

惠特尼·罗杰斯: 你好，谢谢。

这是一次精彩的对话，

我们已经收到了一些观众的问题。

this is a wonderful conversation,

and we're starting to see some questions coming from the community.

The first one we have is from Bill Elkus,

第一个问题来自 比尔·埃尔库斯，

and it's a follow-up to something you were mentioning earlier,

这个问题跟你之前提到的话题相关，

是关于刺激性举措的。

related to the stimulus, Kristalina.

What are the prospects for inflation from such a large stimulus?

实行大力度的刺激性财政措施之后， 通货膨胀的前景怎样？

KG: At this point,

克里斯塔利娜： 在这个时候，

we are not worried about inflation in advanced economies

我们并不担心发达经济体

and in the majority of emerging market economies.

和大部分的新兴市场经济中的 通货膨胀问题。

We do worry about inflation

但对于那些基础薄弱、

in countries that have weak fundamentals,

没有方便的外汇渠道的国家，

no access to foreign exchange easily,

我们确实对 潜在的通货膨胀比较担心。

where the only way to address the crisis

对于他们来说， 唯一脱险的办法

is our help

就是向我们寻求帮助，

or their central banks printing more money.

或者让他们的中央银行 发行更多货币。

And sometimes it's a combination of those two.

有时候是两者的结合。

Why I don't worry about inflation in advanced economies?

为什么我不担心 发达经济体的通货膨胀问题呢？

Because countries that have their hard currency

因为那些有稳定的 “硬通货”的国家

are putting liquidity in place,

流动性做到位了，

but at the same time,

但同时，

they're not seeing a big expansion of demand

他们并没有看到 非常明显的需求扩大

and prices being pushed up.

和价格推升。

So for these countries,

所以对那些国家来说，

at least for the observable future,

至少在可预见的未来，

we don't see a way of going, like after the Second World War,

我们不会看到 二战之后那样的

in inflation jumping up.

通货急剧膨胀的走向。

The consumers are not consuming so aggressively,

消费者没有积极地消费，

demand is not that strong,

需求并不强烈，

and these are societies where there is a lot of maturity

这只是对于那些 非常成熟、

in how they exercise their policy options.

知道怎么实施自己的 政策的国家来说的。

But if you are a poor country,

如果非常贫困的国家

that out of desperation, with no access to markets,

几乎到了绝望的时候， 又无法进入市场，

no access to hard currency,

无法得到硬通货，

ought to somehow put money supply enough,

只能设法提高货币供给，

then inflation is going to be there.

通货膨胀也会随之出现。

A very extreme case is Zimbabwe,

一个非常极端的例子 就是津巴布韦。

and I do worry there may be other countries.

我确实担心会有 其他国家紧随其后。

So this is why we are so determined to engage with these countries early.

这也是为什么我们下定决心 尽早参与帮助这些国家。

And also look at some of the high-debt countries.

至于负债很高的国家，

Would it be necessary, on a country-by-country basis,

有没有必要 一个一个国家

to restructure debts

去重塑债务结构，

to prevent that moving in a desperate direction?

防止走向绝望的境地呢？

惠特尼·罗杰斯： 谢谢你。

WPR: Thank you.

我们还有一个 来自观众的问题，

And we have one more question that I wanted to share from our community.

山下基思，

This is from Keith Yamashita,

问的是我们如何可以 积极参与到其中的一些变化中——

and it's about how we all can be involved in some of this change.

"You are tasked with macro-economic and funding efforts.

“您的任务是推动宏观经济 和资金层面上的措施，

What should we do as citizens to help renewal and recovery?"

作为普通公民，我们要怎么帮助 推动这场革新和经济复苏呢？”

KG: Well, it is incredibly important for all of us citizens --

克里斯塔利娜： 这对所有公民都非常重要——

and aside of being the head of the IMF, I am also a global citizen --

作为 IMF 的首席执行官， 我也是一位世界公民——

that we are to bring that notion

在当下这场危机中，

of solidarity in a moment of crisis.

我们秉持同舟共济的观念。

I loved the way this segment

我很喜欢用一首歌 来阐述这个概念，

was musically backed, and it was "Lean on Me."

这首歌是《依靠我吧》 (“Lean on me”)。

It is very important that we do create that sense --

做到歌词说的那样 真的很重要——

"we are in this together, we will get through it together."

“让我们同舟共济，共渡难关。”

And please, speak up on that.

所以请做出你的努力吧。

I was, for many years, crisis commissioner,

在从事危机专员工作的那些年，

and one thing I learned is that the majority of people

我学到的其中一件事就是， 大部分人都是

are positive, good people.

乐观、善良的。

You can lean on them.

你可以依靠他们。

And there is a minority that is hateful and fearful

也有小部分人 是言行可憎、令人厌恶的，

and also very loud.

并且总是发出各种噪声。

So, good people, speak up.

所以善良的人们， 发出你的声音。

Spread that sense of "we are in this together,

让我们一起传播那句话——

“让我们同舟共济，共渡难关。”

we'll get through it together."

WPR: Thank you. I'll come back later with other questions.

惠特尼·罗杰斯：谢谢您。 我稍后再问其他的问题。

CA: Kristalina, I'd love to expand on that

克里斯：克里斯塔利娜， 我想对此进行扩展，

and just ask you a bit more about leadership, actually.

问一些关于领导力的问题。

You know, when people think of the nations that have performed best,

当人们想到 表现最好的国家，

they often refer to --

他们通常想到的是——

when I say best, best in response to the current pandemic --

我指的是疫情 控制得最好的国家——

they often refer to Germany, New Zealand,

他们会想到 德国、新西兰、

South Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Norway.

韩国、中国台湾、 丹麦和挪威。

When they think of those that have performed worst,

说到表现得 最差的国家时，

they often think of Spain, Italy, the UK, Belgium,

他们通常想到西班牙， 意大利、英国、比利时、

Sweden, Iran, Brazil, Russia

瑞典、伊朗、 巴西、俄罗斯，

and the United States.

还有美国。

All of that second group are run by men,

表现差的国家全部 在男性的领导下，

all but one of the first group are run by women.

表现好的国家除了一个外， 全部由女性领导。

Is that a coincidence?

这是巧合吗？

KG: Well, now,

克里斯塔利娜： 现在的话，

speaking a bit subjectively as a woman,

从女性的角度， 主观地说，

I do believe that women are great to lead in a crisis.

我确实相信女性 在危机中出色的领导力。

They are more likely to show empathy,

她们更有可能 表现出同理心，

to care about the most vulnerable people

关心弱势群体，

and to be able to speak about that.

并且能开诚布公地谈论这些事。

They are decisive.

她们很果断。

I can say that for myself,

至少对于我来说，

we take energy from action.

我们从行动中获取能量。

And we don't tend to, kind of, mourn and complain

而且我们不倾向于去 过多地表达悲痛

too much.

或者抱怨。

So there is perhaps something to be said

所以在未来 可能会存在一些

about the value of gender equality for the future.

关于性别平等的价值的说法。

Bring more women for this world of more crisis ahead of us.

要让更多女性参与到这个 充满危机的世界中。

CA: It's obviously hard to make generalizations about gender of any kind,

克里斯: 概括任何一种性别的特质 明显是很难的，

but I mean, is there also, almost, something

但是我还是很好奇， 有没有可能

about the embracing of nuance,

女性在发现细节上

that women might be better at that than men?

比男性做得更好？

Men are often, it's like, "let's win, let's conquer,"

男性通常喜欢说 “让我们取胜，征服！”

and in a situation like this, where it's all probabilities,

像现在的情形， 有无数的可能性，

it's like, there are so many complex dials to turn

就好像去拨动这个 我们正在努力抗争、

on this dangerous pandemic machine that we're trying to wrestle.

危险的疫情机器上 复杂的拨号盘。

I mean, are women better at handling nuance?

女性会更擅长处理 细微的东西吗？

KG: Let me say something, Chris.

克里斯塔利娜: 我想说，克里斯，

We need everybody,

我们需要每个人，

and we need this mixture of experience, knowledge and predisposition.

我们需要这种经验、 知识和素质的结合。

Men and women coming together.

男人性和女性是站在一起的。

I find it that it is great to have different perspectives

我发现在做决定时 听到不同的观点

when we make decisions.

是很有帮助的。

Then, the chances of making a good decision are higher.

这样做出好的决定的概率会高很多。

So we need each other,

所以我们需要彼此，

but we also need to recognize is that yes, there are certain things,

但是我们也要承认， 有一些特定的事情，

I have seen it time and again,

我看到过很多次，

women are more willing to find a pathway to compromise,

女性更愿意去妥协，

they're more willing to be corrected if they're wrong.

如果她们错了的话， 也更愿意被纠正。

Say, "Oh, OK, that's a good point,

她们会说，“是的， 那是个很棒的想法，

let me integrate it in the way I think about it."

让我根据我的思路 再整合一下。“

And when you are in uncertainty,

当你不确定时，

that is a huge advantage in decision-making.

这在决策制定方面 就是一个巨大优势。

CA: So perhaps talk a bit more about your own leadership in this moment.

克里斯: 让我们谈论下 你在当下环境中的领导力吧。

I mentioned you've only recently come to this job.

你最近才接手这份工作。

Before that, you were European Commissioner,

之前你是欧盟委员会委员，

you dealt with humanitarian crises in more than one part of the world.

负责处理全世界多个地区的 人道主义危机。

And in your own country, Bulgaria,

并且在你的祖国 保加利亚，

you witnessed the wholesale transformation of the country,

你见证了这个国家 在政治和经济上的

both politically and economically.

逐渐转型。

What lessons can you bring from your past experience

你从之前的经历中 学到的哪些经验

to this moment?

比较适用于当下的情况？

KG: Well, there are many things I learned.

克里斯塔利娜： 我学到了很多东西。

I was very fortunate to have these multiple experiences

我很幸运有那么多样的经历

for the job I have now.

可以运用到现在的工作中。

But let me highlight three.

但我想强调三点。

First, how critically important it is

首先，为一场危机做好准备

to prepare for a crisis.

是多么重要。

Kind of, think of the unthinkable,

大胆想象一些不可预见的事情，

and then act with some foresight

然后在危机来临的时候，

when a shock hits you.

可以有所预见地行动。

You have a title for this series called "Build Back Better."

这种应对危机的做法叫 “更好地重建”。

I actually would like to modify it, if I may,

如果可以的话， 我想换个说话，

and I would talk about "Build Better Before."

叫作“未雨绸缪”。

Preparedness, prevention, pay off big time.

准备、防范可以让我们 得到巨大的回报。

The second --

第二点是——

and not necessarily in priority, it is as important --

不一定是最重要的， 但也很重要——

is collective action,

就是共同行动，

working together.

一起努力。

Seeking help, offering help.

寻求帮助、给予帮助，

Makes a huge difference in an emergency.

在危机中可以 发挥巨大的作用。

And the third is something I learned time and again.

第三点，也是我一直在 不断学习到的。

We don't know our internal strength

我们并不知道 我们内在的力量，

until we are hit.

直到我们受到了冲击。

We are so resilient,

我们很顽强，

we are so able to withstand shocks,

我们完全有能力经受住冲击，

especially when we come together,

特别是当我们 团结在一起的时候，

that this always gives me this sense of optimism

这一点总能 让我变得乐观，

that, as hard as it is, we can overcome it.

不管有多困难， 我们都能克服。

From the days when my country collapsed, the economy collapsed,

无论是在保加利亚的经济 崩溃的那一天，

I would get up at four o'clock in the morning,

我需要在凌晨 4 点起床，

queue to buy milk for my daughter,

排队为我女儿买牛奶，

to the days when I would see Syrian refugees in terrible situations

还是当我看到叙利亚难民们 在艰难的处境中

helping each other,

互相帮助彼此的那一天，

to today, when I'm the head of the IMF,

直到今天，我身为 IMF 的首席执行官，

that internal strength,

当我们越团结，

our power of resilience,

那种内在的力量，

the more we are together,

那种不屈不挠的精神

the more it is amplified.

就会越强大。

CA: Actually, could you talk a bit more about the role of the IMF,

克里斯: 你可以谈论一下 IMF 的角色吗，

especially as we look forward to trying to recover from this?

特别是在我们期待 经济复苏的情况下？

What specifically can your organization do

IMF 会如何

引领我们走出困境？

to take us forward?

KG: So there are three things that are quite unique for the IMF,

克里斯塔利娜: 有三件事 基本上只能由 IMF 来做，

and they're really so important in a time of crisis.

这些事情在危机时刻 真的非常重要。

The first one is to give a good diagnostic of what is happening

第一项是对时事 做出明确的判断

and what is the way forward.

并且找到解决的办法。

Let me just say, in this crisis,

这样说吧， 在这次危机中，

in the very first weeks,

在第一周的时候，

we put together, we call it policy action tracker, for 193 countries.

我们组合信息，对 193 个 国家进行政策行动追踪。

What actions are countries taking,

这些国家采取了什么行动，

how they can learn from each other,

他们能怎样彼此借鉴和学习，

so we can be more effective together.

让我们更加有效率。

We are adding to it, now,

我们现在也在监测

actions for responsible reopening of the economies

那些重新开放的 经济体系的行动，

exactly with that purpose.

也是为了达到同样的目的。

What we are known best for,

我们最广为人知的角色

we are the financial first responder.

是金融体系的第一响应者。

We are coming in this incredible shock

我们用可观的经济援助

with very significant financial firepower.

应对这场前所未有的危机。

And what people don't know is that the Fund has multiple instruments.

人们不知道的是， 基金组织有多种的策略。

Emergency financing is the one we doubled for this crisis.

紧急融资是我们 加倍使用的其中一种，

And it is no conditionalities.

并且是无条件的。

We are asking one thing, Chris.

我们只有一个要求，克里斯。

Pay your doctors and your nurses, your hospitals,

为医生、护士们、 医院提供资金，

protect your most vulnerable people and parts of the economy.

保护那些最弱势的群体 和部分经济体。

That's it, this is the condition.

这就是我们的唯一条件。

And the third thing we do at the Fund

基金组织在做的第三件事，

is to help countries have the capacity for good policies.

是帮助各国拥有 实施优质政策的空间。

After the financial crisis,

在金融危机之后，

we helped many countries to have good debt management,

我们帮助了很多国家 提升债务管理能力、

good fiscal management,

良好的财政管理、

transparency and accountability

透明度和公信力，

to improve the performance of public finance.

来提高公共财政表现。

So the Fund is not a very big organization

以任何标准来衡量，

by any standard,

基金组织规模都不算大，

we are some 3,000 people.

我们大概有三千多人。

Highly professional, incredibly committed.

他们都非常专业， 也非常尽职尽责。

When you use the expression "all hands on deck," that's us.

说到“全体待命”的时候， 指的就是我们了，

And it is a digital deck,

而且这是一种数字化的“待命”，

it is a digital deck these days.

现在什么都是数字化的。

CA: I mean, this is a global crisis.

克里斯： 这是一场全球性的危机。

A lot of people are worried that unlike perhaps even in 2008,

很多人会担心这次不会像 2008 年那场危机那样，

where it really did seem there was a lot of global cooperation,

有那么多的国际合作，

there's actually, in some worrying ways,

实际上从某些方面来看，

less this time?

国际协作甚至还被削弱了？

Are you worried about

你有没有担心过

how crucial is that to getting us through this?

这对渡过这场危机有多关键？

KG: I mean, my preoccupation is,

克里斯塔利娜： 我的前一份职业就是

in our mandate, in my area of responsibility,

有责任、有义务地

bring the membership together.

把成员们团结在一起。

We have almost the whole world,

我们几乎有全世界的成员，

189 countries are our members,

我们有 189 个国家，

and so far, I am very impressed by how responsive the membership has been.

直到现在，我都一直 对成员国的配合感到非常钦佩。

I put in front of them in the spring

我在春季的时候

a package, very strong package of measures

向他们提交了一份方案， 那是非常有力的措施，

to expand the role of the IMF in the crisis.

为了扩大 IMF 在这场危机中的作用。

Everything that we ask for --

我们要求的所有事情——

we ask for doubling emergency financing,

要求加倍紧急融资，

we got it.

都被满足了。

Very interesting.

非常有意思。

We ask for tripling concession of financing.

我们要求三倍的融资优惠。

Exactly because, you know,

因为，你知道的，

like the virus hits people with a weak system the hardest,

病毒对处于 脆弱系统中的人们冲击最大，

the crisis hits weak economies the hardest.

这场危机对那些 经济薄弱的国家打击最重。

So we wanted to triple concession of financing.

所以我们想要 三倍的融资优惠。

Within one month, we got it.

一个月以内，我们的 要求也被满足了。

We asked for grants for debt relief,

我们要求延迟偿还债务，

we got it.

也被满足了。

So what I'm trying to say here is that we need to focus

所以我一直想说， 我们要把精力集中在

on ways in which we bring the world together.

让世界团结在一起的方式，

And then act on that.

并且采取行动。

Rather than complaining

而不是抱怨

that maybe not everything is the way it should be,

事情本不该这样，

do your duty to the global community.

要对全球人类的安全 尽到自己的责任。

CA: Well, indeed.

克里斯: 确实是的。

And the IMF is dependent on the financing from its members,

IMF 依靠它的成员国 提供的资金来运营，

its key members.

它的那些主要成员们。

KG: Yes.

克里斯塔利娜：是的。

CA: I mean, you spoke of the trillion dollars

克里斯：你说的那些大量资金，

that you are looking to make available to nations that need it.

那些你尝试提供给 需要的国家的资金，

As I read it, that comes from --

我了解到它们来自于

you've got these units called Special Drawing Rights.

你们的“特别提款权”。

You basically draw a currency from members.

你们基本上是从 成员国那里提取货币。

And hasn't there been pushback, though, from the US,

有没有任何来自美国的压力，

to block that effort of raising all that money?

阻止你们募集那些资金？

KG: So the one trillion dollars is from our quotas

克里斯塔利娜： 有一万亿美元来自我们的配额，

and also from our ability to move money

同时我们也把资金

from well-to-do members from the advanced economies

从运行良好、成熟的经济体

and lend it at very low or zero interest

以非常低或者接近零的利率

to the developing emerging markets.

借给那些发展中的新兴市场。

And we had this one trillion

我们还有一万亿——

and what was very interesting, not everybody noticed that --

有趣的是，不是每个人 都注意到了——

the US, in their two trillion dollars stimulus package,

在美国自己的 2 万亿美元刺激政策中，

included the support for the IMF.

也包括了给 IMF 的援助。

The Special Drawing Rights

对于特别提款权，

is something that we, indeed,

我们确实

don't have yet consensus among the membership to do.

还没有与成员国们达成共识。

It was done during the 2009 crisis,

这在 2009 年的危机中实施过，

issuing liquidity,

刺激流动性，

and it goes to everybody.

而且每个人都可以从中受益。

And there are many voices, including mine --

有非常多的言论， 包括我的——

I spoke to the G20 about that --

我跟 G20 国家关于这个 进行过谈话——

that are saying, well, that may be a good thing to do now.

我说这应该是一件 值得做的事情。

It is not being supported for reasons.

因为各种原因， 这个政策没有得到支持。

It is not just capriciously.

这不是突发奇想的。

The problem with Special Drawing Rights is that when we issue them,

特别提款权的问题是， 当我们发行的时候，

they go to all members,

资金流向了所有成员，

and the advanced economies get 62 percent of the new allocation,

发达国家会得到 62% 的分配。

and there are some that are saying,

还有一些人说，

"Can we think of something that is more directed,

“我们能想出一个更直接，

or exclusively directed to those who need it?"

或者只针对需要帮助的国家的办法吗？”

But, Chris, everything is on the table for us.

但是，克里斯， 所以细节都需要达成共识。

As the crisis unfolds,

当危机来临时，

we need to do more, we bring the membership to do more.

我们需要做得更多， 让我们的成员国做得更多。

CA: Whitney.

克里斯：惠特妮。

WPR: We actually have a question from the community

惠特尼·罗杰斯： 我们有个来自观众的问题，

that builds on what you're discussing right now.

是基于我们正在 谈论的话题的。

Yavnika Khanna asks,

亚夫尼卡·卡纳问，

"Which countries will prove to be resilient in the Great Transformation:

“这场大转型中，哪个国家 会有较强的适应能力：

those with popular leaders or those with sound financial systems?"

是那些有受欢迎的领袖的， 还是有良好金融体系的国家？”

KG: You know, they both matter.

克里斯塔利娜： 这两项都很重要.

Countries with strong fundamentals

拥有坚实经济基础的国家

are clearly going through this crisis

一定可以渡过这场危机,

with less trauma than those that had weak fundamentals to begin with.

并且受到的创伤会比 基础疲软的国家少。

And of course, leadership matters.

当然，领导力也很重要。

How you mobilize a country for action matters.

怎么调动国家层面的行动 同样非常关键。

In my view, what we would see on the other side,

在我看来， 从另一个方面来说，

the winners would be those who think today of this crisis

赢家是那些 把今日的危机

also as an opportunity.

同时当成机会的人。

Clearly, digital transformation is a huge opportunity.

很明显，数字化转型 是一个巨大的机会。

Moving to e-learning, e-government,

能够迅速转向数字化学习， 数字化政府、

e-payments, e-commerce,

电子支付、电子商业、

linking small and medium-sized enterprises

用电子化连接 中小型企业

through digital to consumers,

和消费者的经济体，

big winner.

就是巨大的赢家。

Secondly, I very much hope

其次，我非常希望

that we would come on the other side

我们可以转向

with a low carbon footprint

低碳排放的

and a more climate-resilient economy.

气候适应型经济。

Those who move in this direction,

朝着这个方向发展的国家

they would reduce the risk for themselves and the world.

会降低对他们自己 和这个世界的风险。

From this other crisis,

这是另外一场

that we are not talking so much about these days,

我们最近没怎么 谈论的（气候）危机，

but it hasn't gone anywhere.

但它还远未解决。

And you know, if you don't like pandemic,

如果你不喜欢疫情，

you are not going to like the climate crisis at all.

你也绝对不会喜欢气候危机。

And also, countries that are thinking

还有，那些在想着

of how to make the economy in the future

怎么让经济在以后 变得更加公正的国家

a fairer economy.

也不会喜欢气候危机。

In other words,

换句话说，

we have been seeing inequality building up before this crisis.

这场危机之前，我们 已经看到了不平等的加剧。

My colleagues who have researched pandemics

我的一些研究流行病的同事们

have a very bitter lesson for us.

要给我们送上非常沉痛的一课。

After pandemics,

在疫情之后，

after H1N1,

比如 H1N1 流感、

after SARS, after Zika,

非典和寨卡病毒之后，

inequality goes up.

不平等都明显加剧了。

Well, are we going to let inequality to go up, up,

所以，我们会让 不平等在这场危机后

after this crisis?

不停加剧吗?

And if we do,

如果我们这么做了，

we are damaging the fabric of our societies,

我们就在破坏我们社会的结构，

and my sense is that hundreds of millions of people in this crisis

我感觉这场危机中的数亿人

would much prefer to have a simpler, fairer,

更想在一个简单、公平、

more equitable world to live in,

公正的世界里生活，

and definitely, a more sustainable world.

并且那也肯定是 一个可持续发展的世界。

CA: Mm.

克里斯: 有道理。

KG: Those would be the winners.

克里斯塔利娜： 那些经济体会成为真正的赢家。

WPR: Definitely.

惠特尼： 肯定的。

还有一个来自观众的问题，

And just one more question from our community,

before turning it back to Chris for some final questions here.

在克里斯问最后的一些问题之前。

You know, this one is from Sarah Rugheimer.

这个问题来自莎拉·鲁格海默。

And the question is,

问的是，

"What do you see as the main potential positive shifts / changes

“你怎么看待这场疫情在世界范围内

in this world

带来的主要潜在积极转型，

from this pandemic, say, two to 10 years from now?"

比如在未来的两年到十年内？”

KG: Well, I touched upon it a little bit.

克里斯塔利娜： 我之前谈及了一点。

First, I hope to see fiscal policy

首先，我希望看到 能够帮助实现

to help us recover

并适应更加环保

to be geared towards green recovery

和更平等的经济复苏的

and more equitable recovery.

财政政策。

And that is something that is in the hands of policymakers.

这是政策制定者 能够掌握的事情，

It can be done.

是可以做到的。

Secondly, I very much hope to see us

第二，在远程工作方面，

integrating what we have learned from the crisis,

我非常希望看到，能够整合

in terms of virtual work.

我们从危机里汲取的经验。

My organization, the IMF,

在 IMF，

well, we can shrink our carbon footprint dramatically

我们可以大量缩减 我们的碳排放量，

just by sustaining the practices we are developing now,

仅仅通过维持我们 正在制定的实践方案，

and we will.

我们将继续这样做。

I certainly hope to see, in the future,

我当然也希望看到将来

much more attention to two things that we saw in this crisis are essential.

更多人关注这次疫情中 我们发现的两件重要的事。

Universal access to health in some form,

普及健康医疗——

strong health systems,

强有力的医疗系统，

as well as strong social safety nets,

和牢固的社会安全网，

built as automatic stabilizers in a time of shock.

在紧急时刻能够 像自动稳定器一样发挥所用。

And by the way, it is cheaper if we do it in this way.

而且这样做更实惠，

The bill for everyone is going to be smaller.

每个人的开销会更少。

And also, I very much hope that this notion of investing in people,

我希望普及把资金投资 在人民身上的概念——

recognizing that now that we see this horrible tragedy,

既然我们已经目睹了 这场可怕的悲剧，

the loss of lives,

以及那么多失去的生命——

that investing in people is the very best investment we can make.

投资在人民身上 就是最好的投资。

CA: Mm.

克里斯：说得好。

WPR: That's great.

惠特妮：太棒了。

CA: So, see you again in a minute, Whitney.

克里斯：那么一会见儿，惠特妮。

Kristalina, it's so --

克里斯塔利娜， 这非常——

It's so inspiring, actually, hearing the energy and stuff,

听到这些正能量的话，

the energy that you're bringing to this.

你带来的这些正能量 非常的鼓舞人心。

I don't think many people coming into this

我不觉得很多参与这场对话的人

would have expected to hear, from the head of the IMF,

会期待从 IMF 的 首席执行官口中听到

this emphasis on, you know,

这样的呼吁——

"Let's solve the climate crisis,

“让我们解决气候危机，

let's tackle inequality and injustice."

解决不平等和不公正。”

Do you really believe that this moment,

你真的觉得这个时候，

this crisis could help lead us into a great transformation?

这场危机可以带动我们 进行更好的转型吗？

People will feel it's your job to sound positive,

人们会觉得你的工作 就是听起来很乐观，

you have to do that.

因为你必须这样做。

Do you really see the path forward that we can get through this,

你真的觉得我们能 渡过这场危机吗，

and what sort of timescale are we talking about here, Kristalina?

大概需要多长时间呢， 克里斯塔利娜？

KG: Well, you know, one thing I learned from the transition I lived through,

克里斯塔利娜：我从亲身经历过的 转型中学了到一件事，

the transition from central planning to markets,

从中央计划经济 到市场经济的转型，

is it is tough, it is long, it is painful

是困难、漫长、棘手的，

and it is a road that takes turns.

并且这不是 一条平坦的道路。

So I don't have an expectation of miracle from here to there.

所以我不觉得我们会 奇迹般从这里到那里。

But I genuinely believe that we are now

但我确实相信我们现在

in a point of our history

正处于历史的一个节点，

when people demand from their leaders

人民向他们的领袖要求

safety and security

安全和稳定，

and a society that is not torn apart by conflicts.

要求一个不会被冲突撕裂的社会。

And that is actually not unusual to see.

这实际上并不罕见。

So, I would turn the table a little bit on you, Chris.

所以我想问你，克里斯。

After a war,

在一场战争之后，

we see the world coming together

我们看到整个世界 团结在一起，

and building a better world.

建立起了一个更好的世界。

Why not after a pandemic?

为什么在一场疫情后 我们做不到呢？

And yes,

是的，

we can make mistakes and not take the right road to travel.

我们会犯错， 会走上错误的道路。

But we certainly have an obligation to try to get on that road.

但我们绝对有义务 尝试走上正确的道路。

CA: So if you could just inject --

克里斯: 如果你能提倡——

KG: And everybody matters for that.

克里斯塔利娜： 并且这与每个人都息息相关。

CA: So if you could inject one idea into the mind of everybody,

克里斯：如果你能向 所有人，或者听你讲话的

or into to the world leaders who listen to you,

全世界领导人们 推崇一个观念，

what would that idea be at this moment?

那个观念是什么？

KG: Optimism.

克里斯塔利娜：乐观。

Build a better world.

建造一个更好的世界

Possible, desirable, we must do it.

是可能的、值得期待的， 我们必须这样做。

CA: That sounds like optimism as the stance,

克里斯: 这听起来 真的非常乐观，

not just a naive belief that it will happen,

不仅仅是肤浅地 相信它会发生，

but a determination to make it so.

而是一种 让它发生的决心。

That's what you're calling for.

那正是你正在提倡的观念，

To use that as the motivation to pull us all forward together.

让它成为所有人 团结向前的动力。

KG: Chris, do I have one minute, or I'm done, I need to go?

克里斯塔利娜：我们还有 时间吗？还是马上要结束了？

CA: If you want to say one last thing in one minute, alright, go.

克里斯：如果你最后 还想说点什么，请说吧。

KG: I want to say one thing.

克里斯塔利娜: 我想再说一件事。

To recommend to the audience to watch the movie

我建议听众去看一部电影，

"Bridge of Spies."

《间谍之桥》(“Bridge of Spies”)。

There is a part in the movie

电影中有一个片段，

in which the two main actors,

两个主演——

the lawyer and the Russian spy, talk to each other.

律师和俄国间谍 ——在交谈。

The lawyer says, "Things are very bad, it looks like you may hang."

律师说，“事情非常糟糕， 看样子你可能命不久矣了。”

The spy is very calm.

间谍非常冷静。

Lawyer says, "Aren't you worried?"

律师说，“你不担心吗？”

The spy answers, "Would it help?"

间谍回答，“担心有用吗？”

So my message is, it is tough,

所以我想说的是，现在的确是 一个非常艰难的时刻，

but worries won't help.

单纯的焦虑不会有任何帮助，

Positive action will.

但积极的行动会。

Positive, stay positive, so that's my message.

乐观，保持积极， 这就是我想说的。

CA: Well, I have to say thank you.

克里斯：真的非常感谢。

It's incredibly inspiring, actually, to see your energy

你的正能量 和坚定乐观的心态

and your determined optimism, let's call it that.

非常鼓舞人心。

I think we wish you the very best

我们想要祝你好运，

as you use your position to help get us out of this mess.

通过你的工作帮助 我们走出这场困境。

Thank you so much, Kristalina, for spending time here at TED.

很感谢你加入 TED 的这场对话， 克里斯塔利娜。

Thank you.

谢谢。

WPR: Thank you, Kristalina.

惠特妮：谢谢你， 克里斯塔利娜。