Kim Stanley Robinson: Remembering climate change ... a message from the year 2071 | TED Countdown

翻译人员: George Sze 校对人员: Cissy Yun

The 2020s were a crux in human history.

21 世纪 20 年代 是人类历史上的一个关键时期。

They began with the first pandemic,

一开始他们就遭遇了大流行病， 就像给每个人打了一记耳光，

a slap to the face of everyone,

as they had to acknowledge that they were a single civilization

人类不得不承认， 他们不过是单一生物圈上的单一文明，

on a single biosphere,

utterly dependent on science to keep them alive.

完全要依赖科技存活。

Civilization is a fragile thing.

文明其实很脆弱。

And although people started the '20s hoping to ignore that profound truth,

人们在 20 年代之初 希望忽略掉这一深刻的事实，

even after the first pandemic,

但纵然熬过了第一次大流行，

the great heat waves of 2023 torched any such hope.

2023 年的那场巨大热浪 还是摧毁了他们的幻想。

Humans cannot survive combinations of high heat and high humidity

当温度和湿度上升到一个叫做 “35 度湿球温度”的表观温度时，

that rise above an index temperature called "wet-bulb 35."

人类是无法存活的。

And that year, the wet-bulb 36 events in India, in Southeast Asia

而那一年，“36 度湿球温度事件”

接连在印度、东南亚， 以及美国中西部出现。

and in the American Midwest

killed so many more people than the first pandemic

造成的死亡人数超过了大流行病，

that it was made clear to everyone things simply had to change.

所有人都意识到必须得改变现状了。

The arrival of the second pandemic put an exclamation mark on all that.

而第二次大流行病的到来 给一切画上了惊叹号。

The question at that desperate point was: Could things change?

绝望的时刻，疑问萦绕在人们心间： 现状真的会改变吗？

Could humanity stop its destructive ways

人类真的能停止破坏性的行为，

and restore balance to its relationship to its biosphere?

重塑与生物圈的平衡关系吗？

Crucially, could it lower the global average temperature of the earth

很重要的一点，人类能及时 降低地球的平均气温，

in time to avoid killing millions more people,

以避免更多人、动物的死亡 以及物种灭绝？

more animals

and indeed entire species?

Looking back from our perspective 60 years later, this of course looks possible,

在 60 年后，从我们的视角来看， 这些当然都是可以实现的，

because they did it.

因为那代人也确实做到了。

But it was by no means a sure thing.

但这并不是必然的事。

You have to imagine what it felt like at the time, when panic filled the air,

想象一下当时的场景： 恐慌的气息四处弥漫，

and no one could be sure success was even physically possible.

没有人敢说那些设想一定会实现。

Many declared that humanity was doomed.

许多人宣称人类已经完了。

This is why that decade gets called "the turbulent 20s"

也正因此，那个十年被称为 “动荡的 20 年代”

or "the terrifying 20s."

或者“骇人的 20 年代”。

Only much later did some historians begin to call it "the terrific 20s"

直到很久以后，一些历史学家 才开始称其为“了不起的 20 年代”

or even "the roaring 20s,"

甚至“兴旺的 20 年代”，

although that's a historian's joke and as usual, a bad one.

尽管这是历史学家的戏称， 一个不怎么出彩的玩笑。

It was not at all like the roaring twenties of a century before.

一点都不像 20 世纪的 “兴旺的 20 年代”，

It was much stranger than that.

相比之下，这段时期要奇怪的多。

In these critical years, lessons learned in the first pandemic got put to use.

在关键几年里，从第一波大流行病中 得出的经验被利用起来。

The scientific community had rallied to meet that crisis

科学界史无前例地 团结起来应对那场危机，

in an unprecedented way,

unleashing a burst of cooperation and creativity never seen before.

释放出前所未有的合作精神和创造力。

And now they did it again.

这次他们又做到了。

Things that had once seemed impossible became the new normal,

看似不可能的事变成了新常态，

and the heat waves of 2023 spurred an all-hands-on-deck mentality,

2023 年的热浪激发了 大家全员出击的心态，

in which almost every solution ever proposed to help solve the climate crisis

几乎每个有助于解决气候危机的方案 都得以加速推出和落实。

got accelerated to roll out and given a try.

The diversity of this effort makes any study of the 20s

这场努力涉及领域的多样性 让所有关于 20 年代的研究

a very multidisciplinary affair -- which I like -- involving all of science,

都成为多学科的项目——我喜欢这点，

涉及科学、技术、 工程和医学（统称 STEM），

technology, engineering and medicine,

这些都是我们伟大的工具。

STEM yes, our great tool kit,

but also, crucially:

同时还有一些其他也很重要的学科：

governance, law, justice, diplomacy, philosophy and the arts,

管理、法律、司法、 外交、哲学、艺术，

以及最重要的金融。

and most of all, finance.

Rapid changes in civilization software

正是这些文明“软件”的快速变化，

were what allowed for the rapid changes in its hardware.

才让文明的“硬件”得以快速变化。

Crucially, the people of that time had to arrange to pay themselves

关键的是， 那时候的人还需要花费资金

to do the things necessary to heal the biosphere.

去做修复生物圈的必要工作。

Money had to go to good work rather than bad.

金钱需要流向良性工作 而非恶性工作。

This was the crux.

这正是之前的难点。

With that change enacted,

随着这一难点的解决，

各种良性工作都得以开展了。

there was all manner of good work ready to be performed.

It has to be understood that before the 20s,

要知道，在 20 年代之前，

capital always went to the highest rate of return.

资本总是会流向回报率最高的地方。

That was the law of capital,

这是资本的自然规律，

通常也是实际运作时的条规。

often literally the law.

Restoring damage done to the biosphere,

修复生物圈所遭受的破坏，

taking carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere --

从大气中回收二氧化碳，

these did not yield the highest rate of return,

这些都不会产生最高的回报率，

so money went elsewhere,

所以金钱流向了别处，

and thus the catastrophe struck home.

因此灾难袭击了家园。

尽管现在看起来有些奇怪，

Strange as it seems now, the funding of destruction might even have continued

但这种破坏性的资金流动 本是可能继续下去的，

were it not for a basic change in the global political economy,

好在当时的全球政治经济 发生了一场根本变革。

a change oriented by science,

这场变革以科学为导向，

organized under the Paris Agreement

依据《巴黎协定》而组织，

and then enacted by all the nations on earth.

然后由地球上的所有国家共同颁布。

The mechanism for this transformation

这场变革产生的新机制

was called the Network for Greening the Financial System,

被称为绿色金融体系，

an organization of 89 of the world's central banks.

由世界 89 家中央银行组成。

Under the direction and encouragement of their governments,

在其政府的指导和鼓励下，

这些中央银行改变了世界 达到了现今人们所熟悉的“碳标准”。

these central banks shifted the world to what some now call the carbon standard.

It also gets called "carbon quantitative easing" or "the carbon coin."

它也被称为“碳量化宽松”或“碳币”政策。

其思想是这样的：

The idea was this:

精确地创造一定量的新法定货币， 其数量应正比于

that new fiat money should be created precisely in proportion

to the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere

要从大气中提取并隔离 在我们脚下的植物、

and sequestered in plants, soil or the rocks under our feet.

土壤或岩石中的二氧化碳量。

And that new money was to be given to anyone

这笔新资金将提供给 任何从空气中回收碳的人群，

who drew carbon back out of the air

or demonstrably and over the long term

以及始终如一地节制排碳的人群。

refrained from burning it in the first place.

This monetary and fiscal policy

这种货币和财政政策

reoriented a huge proportion of human work to decarbonizing projects,

使得很大一部分人类工作 重新定向到脱碳项目上，

and there were a lot of them ready to go.

其中有很多已经准备好运作。

Regenerative agriculture was one giant area,

再生农业是一个宽广而重要的领域，

very important, as people still needed to eat while saving the world.

因为人类拯救世界的同时也要吃饭。

Reforestation, where appropriate, was also a rapid method of carbon drawdown.

在适当的情况下， 重新造林也是一种快速减排的方法。

So was direct air capture,

直接空气捕获技术也是如此，

which required an entirely new physical infrastructure,

该技术需要全新的基础设施，

all paid for by carbon coins.

全部由碳币支付。

Some captured carbon got rendered into replacements for concrete and steel,

一些捕获的碳被转化为 混凝土和钢材的替代品，

and that, too, earned carbon coins.

这也能获得碳币。

Habitat restoration also helped, usually.

栖息地的恢复通常也是有用的。

Once people were getting paid to take care of the earth's land and animals,

一旦从爱护地球土地和动物中获得回报，

碳减少就进入了人类的努力列表中，

carbon drawdown then joined the effort to stop the mass extinction event

努力阻止不断逼近的 大规模灭绝事件发生。

that we had been slipping into.

Of course, clean energy is fundamental to powering all of this good work,

当然，清洁能源是推动 所有这些良性工作的基础，

and installing thousands of gigawatts of clean energy production

安装数万亿瓦特的清洁能源生产设备 是一项艰巨的任务，

was a mammoth task.

Millions of people spent their careers

数以百万计的人投身于 这个伟大的基础设施转型工作。

in this great infrastructural transformation.

Indeed, there was so much work to be done in the 20s

事实上，在 20 年代有 很多需完成的任务，

提供资金的政府 因此实现了充分就业。

that governments funding it were able to create full employment.

"Create full employment," which of course means an end to poverty.

“实现充分就业” 自然就意味着贫困的结束。

That there wouldn't be enough work for people,

没有足够的工作岗位，

that there was a contradiction between people's health

人类健康与 生物圈健康之间存在矛盾，

and the biosphere's health --

这些迷茫思想 在 20 年代之前根深蒂固，

these were confusions so ingrained in the era before the 20s,

they're now hard to understand.

尽管现在很难理解。

But hindsight is 20/20, if you'll excuse me saying so.

但请容我说， 事后诸葛亮总是容易做的。

And as for keeping fossil fuels in the ground,

至于停止开采地下的化石燃料，

this, too, had to be compensated,

这也必须得到补偿，

as many nations were literally banking on these resources,

因为许多国家都依赖于化石资源，

the burning of which would ironically have destroyed them.

但讽刺的是， 燃烧化石也会摧毁这些国家。

When petrostates like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Russia

当委内瑞拉、沙特阿拉伯、 加拿大和俄罗斯等石油国家

declared they were going to keep it in the ground,

宣布暂停开采化石燃料时，

they were paid in carbon coins,

他们会获得碳币支付，

on a timetable matched to how quickly

支付的时间与他们 提取和出售燃料的速度相匹配。

they would have extracted and sold these fuels.

At the level of cities,

在城市层面，

infrastructure changes got paid for as they reduced carbon burn.

基础设施的改善减少了碳燃烧， 他们也因此获得了资金。

Mass transit projects, electric car recharging stations,

公共交通项目、电动汽车充电站、

infill construction, city agriculture, clean power generation --

填充式建筑、城市农业、清洁发电——

all these actions earned carbon coins at the city level.

这些都为城市挣得了碳币。

And individuals could earn the coins as well,

个人也可以赚取碳币，

by efforts such as no-till agriculture or green ranching,

通过免耕农业或绿色牧场、

peat bog creation, kelp farming

泥炭沼泽建造、海带养殖，

and also swapping out dirty machines for clean ones.

以及改用洁净化机器等途径。

All such decarbonizing efforts now made money rather than cost money.

现在，所有这些脱碳努力 都能赚钱而不是花钱。

Well, of course, there were many problems created by this shift in value.

当然，这种价值转变 也带来了很多问题。

Certifying carbon drawdown became a huge industry in itself,

碳排放量认证本身 就成为了一个大型产业，

and anything that gets measured gets gamed.

而任何被量化的东西 都会被用来博弈。

So this was not a simple matter.

所以这并不是一件简单的事情。

But it got done.

但人们的确成功了。

And then ...

然后……

the heat waves of 2027 made it seem

2027 年的热浪似乎宣告

as if all their good work had come too late,

所有的良性工作 都开展得太晚了，

the people could no longer stop a slide into catastrophe.

人类再也无法阻止灾难来临。

Things could have fallen apart that year,

那一年，世界都可能分崩离析，

and there was enough turmoil to make it seem like that was what was happening.

而且动荡之多让人类确信 末日即将到来。

The countries that cast dust into the atmosphere the next summer

一些国家在第二年夏天 向大气中抛洒灰尘，

to deflect sunlight into space and cool things off for a while --

目的是将阳光反射向太空， 借此使地球冷却一段时间，

these countries were excoriated by many,

这些国家受到了许多的谴责，

but thanked by many more.

但也受到了更多人的感激。

紧急情况愈演愈烈，

The sense of emergency grew strong,

and political instability spread like wildfire.

政局动荡如野火般蔓延。

The creation of a dozen new countries by way of divorces, velvet or otherwise,

通过暴力革命、天鹅绒革命或其他方式 创建的十几个新国家

was hard to reconcile with the climate emergency work.

很难与气候应急工作协调一致。

And for some years, history seemed to fall into chaos.

历史似乎陷入了多年的混乱。

Often seems that way.

看起来经常这样。

The global temperatures cooled for a few years after that,

此后的几年，全球气温下降，

政治方面也得以降温。

and political temperatures cooled as well.

土著居民在管理他们最熟悉的土地方面 发挥了积极的作用，

Indigenous people took an active role in managing the lands

that they knew the best,

带回了长期护理的急需价值观。

bringing back much-needed values of long-term care.

Women's empowerment continued to expand

女性赋权范围不断扩大，

by way of the continuous and undeniable work of women.

这得益于女性持续和 不可磨灭的工作。

And when the world's population then began to level off,

当世界人口开始趋于平稳时，

pressures of all kinds were reduced accordingly.

各种压力也相应减小。

The project also of leaving a big percentage of the earth's surface

将地表一大部分留给其他物种的计划 也有了动力，

to our cousin species

gained momentum, with large reserves of wildland connected by habitat corridors

栖息地走廊连接了大量的荒地，

to make migrations possible again.

使迁徙再次成为可能。

And the mass extinction event that had looked inevitable

看起来不可避免的大规模灭绝事件

开始转变为一个相互关心的全球性项目。

began to shift into a global project of mutual care.

Although the sunlight deflection of 2028

尽管到目前为止， 2028 年的阳光偏转

remains by far the most famous act of geofinessing,

仍然是最著名的地理学策略行为，

it's important to recall the effort in Antarctica and Greenland

我们也必须记住 人类在南极洲和格陵兰岛所做的努力：

to pump meltwater out from under the great glaciers

从巨大的冰川下抽出融水，

that were then sliding faster and faster into the sea.

这些冰川正越来越快地沉入海中。

Sea level rise could have been a catastrophe for everybody,

海平面上升对每个人来说 都是一场灾难，

not just near the coastlines, but everybody.

不仅是在海岸线附近的居民， 而是每个人。

But removing that meltwater beneath the glaciers

但是，清除冰川下方的融水

导致它们的冰块再次触底反弹，

caused their ice to bottom out on rock again,

slowed the ice back to its historical norms.

使冰层缓慢恢复到曾经的水平。

Sea level rise is still a concern, of course,

当然，海平面上升 仍然是一个问题，

但在这个问题上，与其他很多事一样，

but in this matter, as in so many,

carbon drawdown is a huge help.

碳量的减少将会有很大的帮助。

It's the clear signal indicating that we have taken up our responsibility

这是一个明确的信号， 表明我们已经承担起责任，

承担起保持生物圈平衡的责任，

for keeping the biosphere in balance,

that the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere

大气中百万分之一的二氧化碳 现在在我们的控制之下，

is now under our control

and a matter of international treaty negotiation.

并且成为了国际条约谈判的问题。

This is really the great accomplishment of our time.

这是我们这个时代的伟大成就。

It means we can put sea level, along with everything else,

这意味着我们可以 将海平面与其他问题

放在一条通往长期稳定的共同道路上。

onto a shared path towards long-term stability.

It's another way in which we can say we now live on the carbon standard.

这是我们现在生活在 碳标准下的另一种方式。

We take that for granted now.

我们现在觉得这是理所当然的。

But 60 years ago, it was a challenge no generation had had to beat.

但在 60 年前， 这是个没有任何人战胜过得挑战。

That they did it is something we should be grateful for,

而那代人做到了， 对此我们应该心怀感激。

and indeed, the more historians like me look at the 20s,

像我这样的历史学家 越看 20 年代，

the more amazing they become.

越感觉那代人令人惊奇。

Those people really stepped up.

他们挺身而出。

谢谢。

Thank you.