Kim Stanley Robinson: Remembering climate change ... a message from the year 2071 | TED Countdown

Translator: Yeremia Ryan Gunadi Reviewer: Maria Nainggolan

The 2020s were a crux in human history.

Tahun 2020 adalah tahun terpenting sejarah manusia.

They began with the first pandemic,

Dimulai dengan pandemi pertama,

a slap to the face of everyone,

sebuah tamparan untuk semua orang,

as they had to acknowledge that they were a single civilization

dimana mereka harus mengakui bahwa mereka adalah peradaban tunggal

on a single biosphere,

di satu biosfer,

utterly dependent on science to keep them alive.

sangat bergantung pada sains untuk menjaga mereka tetap hidup.

Civilization is a fragile thing.

Peradaban itu sesuatu yang rapuh.

And although people started the '20s hoping to ignore that profound truth,

dan meskipun orang memulai periode 20an berharap mengabaikan kebenaran ini,

even after the first pandemic,

bahkan setelah awal pandemi,

the great heat waves of 2023 torched any such hope.

badai panas besar 2023 memupuskan harapan tersebut.

Humans cannot survive combinations of high heat and high humidity

Manusia tak bisa bertahan di bawah gabungan panas dan kelembaban tinggi

that rise above an index temperature called "wet-bulb 35."

yang naik di atas indeks suhu, “wet-bulb 35”.

And that year, the wet-bulb 36 events in India, in Southeast Asia

Di tahun itu, peristiwa wet-bulb 36 di India, Asia Tenggara

and in the American Midwest

dan di Amerika Barat bagian tengah

killed so many more people than the first pandemic

membunuh lebih banyak orang dari pandemi pertama

that it was made clear to everyone things simply had to change.

yang jelas bagi tiap orang, harus ada perubahan.

The arrival of the second pandemic put an exclamation mark on all that.

Munculnya pandemi kedua menambah peringatan keras sebelumnya.

The question at that desperate point was: Could things change?

Pertanyaan di titik nadir ini: Bisakah hal - hal berubah?

Could humanity stop its destructive ways

Bisakah manusia berhenti merusak

and restore balance to its relationship to its biosphere?

dan memulihkan keseimbangan alam?

Crucially, could it lower the global average temperature of the earth

Lebih penting lagi, bisakah ini menurunkan suhu rata - rata bumi

in time to avoid killing millions more people,

pada waktunya sebelum membunuh lebih banyak orang,

more animals

lebih banyak hewan

and indeed entire species?

dan bahkan seluruh spesies?

Looking back from our perspective 60 years later, this of course looks possible,

Meninjau dari 60 tahun ke depan, ini tampak mungkin,

because they did it.

karena dilakukan.

But it was by no means a sure thing.

Tapi, ini bukanlah kepastian.

You have to imagine what it felt like at the time, when panic filled the air,

Anda harus membayangkan rasanya waktu itu, ketika kepanikan mendominasi,

and no one could be sure success was even physically possible.

dan tidak seorangpun yakin kesuksesan mungkin.

Many declared that humanity was doomed.

Banyak menyatakan manusia ditakdirkan mati.

This is why that decade gets called "the turbulent 20s"

Inilah kenapa dekade itu disebut “20an bergejolak”

or "the terrifying 20s."

atau “20an yang menakutkan.”

Only much later did some historians begin to call it "the terrific 20s"

Hanya setelah beberapa waktu, sejarawan menyebutnya “20an fantastis”

or even "the roaring 20s,"

atau bahkan “20an optimistis”,

although that's a historian's joke and as usual, a bad one.

sekalipun itu candaan sejarawan, seperti biasanya, yang buruk.

It was not at all like the roaring twenties of a century before.

Itu tak seperti periode 20an satu abad sebelumnya.

It was much stranger than that.

Itu lebih aneh lagi.

In these critical years, lessons learned in the first pandemic got put to use.

Di tahun penting ini, pelajaran dari pandemi pertama diterapkan.

The scientific community had rallied to meet that crisis

Komunitas ilmiah telah berkumpul menghadapi krisis

in an unprecedented way,

yang tak pernah ada sebelumnya,

unleashing a burst of cooperation and creativity never seen before.

menghasilkan kolaborasi dan kreativitas yang tak pernah dilihat sebelumnya.

And now they did it again.

Dan sekarang mereka melakukannya lagi.

Things that had once seemed impossible became the new normal,

Sesuatu yang sebelumnya mustahil menjadi sesuatu yang normal,

and the heat waves of 2023 spurred an all-hands-on-deck mentality,

dan badai panas 2023 mendorong mentalitas kebersamaan,

in which almost every solution ever proposed to help solve the climate crisis

di mana hampir tiap solusi yang diajukan untuk mengatasi krisis iklim

got accelerated to roll out and given a try.

dipercepat peluncurannya dan dicoba.

The diversity of this effort makes any study of the 20s

Keberagaman usaha ini membuat penelitian apapun di 20an

a very multidisciplinary affair -- which I like -- involving all of science,

urusan sangat multidisiplin -- yang saya suka -- melibatkan semua sains,

technology, engineering and medicine,

teknologi, teknik, dan medis,

STEM yes, our great tool kit,

STEM, kotak alat besar kita,

but also, crucially:

tapi juga, lebih penting:

governance, law, justice, diplomacy, philosophy and the arts,

pemerintahan, hukum, peradilan, diplomasi, filosofi, dan seni,

and most of all, finance.

dan terlebih lagi, keuangan.

Rapid changes in civilization software

Perubahan cepat di peradaban software

were what allowed for the rapid changes in its hardware.

ialah yang memungkinkan perubahan cepat di sisi hardware.

Crucially, the people of that time had to arrange to pay themselves

Lebih penting lagi, orang di masa itu harus mengatur diri mereka

to do the things necessary to heal the biosphere.

melakukan yang diperlukan untuk menyembuhkan biosfer.

Money had to go to good work rather than bad.

Uang harus dipakai untuk pekerjaan baik alih - alih yang buruk.

This was the crux.

Inilah intinya.

With that change enacted,

Dengan perubahan itu,

there was all manner of good work ready to be performed.

semua jenis kerja baik siap dilakukan.

It has to be understood that before the 20s,

Harus dimengerti sebelum periode 20an,

capital always went to the highest rate of return.

arus modal selalu ada di yang paling menguntungkan.

That was the law of capital,

Itulah hukum arus modal,

often literally the law.

seringkali hukum itu sendiri.

Restoring damage done to the biosphere,

Memulihkan biosfer yang rusak,

taking carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere --

mengeluarkan karbon dioksida dari atmosfer --

these did not yield the highest rate of return,

ini tak memberi untung paling tinggi,

so money went elsewhere,

jadi uang ke tempat lain,

and thus the catastrophe struck home.

akibatnya bencana melanda.

Strange as it seems now, the funding of destruction might even have continued

Anehnya, pendanaan merusak mungkin akan terus berlanjut

were it not for a basic change in the global political economy,

jika bukan karena perubahan ekonomi politik global,

a change oriented by science,

perubahan yang dimulai sains,

organized under the Paris Agreement

diatur di bawah Paris Agreement

and then enacted by all the nations on earth.

dan ditegakkan semua bangsa di bumi.

The mechanism for this transformation

Mekanismes tranformasi ini

was called the Network for Greening the Financial System,

disebut Network for Greening the Financial System,

an organization of 89 of the world's central banks.

organisasi beranggotakan 89 bank sentral dunia.

Under the direction and encouragement of their governments,

Di bawah pengarahan dan dukungan pemerintah mereka,

these central banks shifted the world to what some now call the carbon standard.

bank sentral ini mengubah dunia ke yang disebut standar karbon.

It also gets called "carbon quantitative easing" or "the carbon coin."

Itu juga disebut “peringanan kuatitatif karbon” atau “koin karbon”.

The idea was this:

Idenya seperti ini:

that new fiat money should be created precisely in proportion

uang cetakan baru itu harus dibuat persis sama dengan proporsi

to the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere

jumlah karbon dioksida yang dikeluarkan dari atmosfer

and sequestered in plants, soil or the rocks under our feet.

dan disalurkan ke tumbuhan, tanah atau bebatuan di bawah kaki kita.

And that new money was to be given to anyone

Dan uang baru itu diberikan kepada siapapun

who drew carbon back out of the air

yang menarik karbon keluar dari udara

or demonstrably and over the long term

atau terbukti dan untuk jangka panjang

refrained from burning it in the first place.

tidak membakarnya sejak awal.

This monetary and fiscal policy

Kebijakan moneter dan fiskal ini

reoriented a huge proportion of human work to decarbonizing projects,

mengarahkan ulang proporsi besar kerja manusia ke proyek dekarbonisasi,

and there were a lot of them ready to go.

dan ada banyak yang siap melakukannya.

Regenerative agriculture was one giant area,

Pertanian regeneratif adalah area raksasa,

very important, as people still needed to eat while saving the world.

sangat penting, karena orang masih perlu makan selagi menyelamatkan dunia.

Reforestation, where appropriate, was also a rapid method of carbon drawdown.

Reboisasi, di mana perlu, adalah cara cepat penurunan karbon.

So was direct air capture,

Demikian juga pemerangkap udara,

which required an entirely new physical infrastructure,

yang butuh infrastruktur fisik baru,

all paid for by carbon coins.

semua didanai oleh koin karbon.

Some captured carbon got rendered into replacements for concrete and steel,

Beberapa menangkap karbon diproses menggantikan beton dan baja,

and that, too, earned carbon coins.

dan itu, juga, mendapat koin karbon.

Habitat restoration also helped, usually.

Biasanya, pemulihan habitat juga menolong.

Once people were getting paid to take care of the earth's land and animals,

Waktu orang - orang dibayar memelihara daratan dan hewan di bumi,

carbon drawdown then joined the effort to stop the mass extinction event

pengurangan karbon bergabung dengan usaha penghentian kepunahan masal

that we had been slipping into.

yang sedang kita alami saat itu.

Of course, clean energy is fundamental to powering all of this good work,

Tentu, energi bersih penting untuk menggerakkan kerja baik ini,

and installing thousands of gigawatts of clean energy production

dan membangun banyak penghasil energi bersih

was a mammoth task.

ialah tugas yang besar.

Millions of people spent their careers

Banyak orang memusatkan karir mereka

in this great infrastructural transformation.

dalam perubahan infrastruktur besar ini.

Indeed, there was so much work to be done in the 20s

Bahkan, banyak yang harus dikerjakan di masa 20an

that governments funding it were able to create full employment.

hingga pemerintah mendanainya agar semua orang tidak menganggur.

"Create full employment," which of course means an end to poverty.

Ini sama dengan akhir dari kemiskinan.

That there wouldn't be enough work for people,

Di mana tidak ada lagi pengangguran,

that there was a contradiction between people's health

tak ada lagi kesenjangan dalam kesehatan

and the biosphere's health --

dan kesehatan biofer

these were confusions so ingrained in the era before the 20s,

ini adalah masalah akut sebelum era 20an,

they're now hard to understand.

yang sulit dimengerti sekarang.

But hindsight is 20/20, if you'll excuse me saying so.

Tapi kilas balik begitu jelas, jika saya boleh mengatakannya.

And as for keeping fossil fuels in the ground,

Dan usaha tidak menggunakan bahan bakar fosil,

this, too, had to be compensated,

inipun juga harus dikompensasi,

as many nations were literally banking on these resources,

karena banyak negara sangat tergantung pada sumber daya ini,

the burning of which would ironically have destroyed them.

pembakarannya akan secara ironis menghancurkan mereka.

When petrostates like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Russia

Ketika negara penghasil minyak: Venezuela, Arab Saudi, Kanada, dan Rusia

declared they were going to keep it in the ground,

menyatakan berhenti menambang bahan bakar fosil,

they were paid in carbon coins,

mereka dibayar koin karbon,

on a timetable matched to how quickly

sebesar kecepatan

they would have extracted and sold these fuels.

mereka mengekstrak dan menjual bahan bakar ini.

At the level of cities,

Pada tingkat perkotaan,

infrastructure changes got paid for as they reduced carbon burn.

perubahan infrastruktur dibayar karena mengurangi pembakaran karbon.

Mass transit projects, electric car recharging stations,

Proyek transportasi masal, stasiun pengisian mobil listrik,

infill construction, city agriculture, clean power generation --

konstruksi infill, pertanian kota, produksi energi bersih --

all these actions earned carbon coins at the city level.

semua aksi ini menghasilkan koin karbon di tingkat perkotaan.

And individuals could earn the coins as well,

Dan individu juga bisa mendapat koin karbon,

by efforts such as no-till agriculture or green ranching,

lewat pertanian tanpa pembajakan, atau pertanian berkelanjutan,

peat bog creation, kelp farming

pembuatan rawa kompos, pertanian rumput laut

and also swapping out dirty machines for clean ones.

dan juga penggantian ke mesin yang ditenagai energi bersih.

All such decarbonizing efforts now made money rather than cost money.

Semua penurunan karbon ini menghasilkan uang, alih - alih menghabiskannya.

Well, of course, there were many problems created by this shift in value.

Tentu, ada banyak masalah yang ditimbulkan perubahan nilai ini.

Certifying carbon drawdown became a huge industry in itself,

Pengesahan penurunan karbon menjadi industri besar,

and anything that gets measured gets gamed.

dan semua yang diukur dimanipulasi.

So this was not a simple matter.

Jadi, ini tidak mudah.

But it got done.

Tapi harus diselesaikan.

And then ...

Kemudian...

the heat waves of 2027 made it seem

badai panas 2027 membuat semua kerja baik itu

as if all their good work had come too late,

tampak sudah terlambat,

the people could no longer stop a slide into catastrophe.

orang - orang tak dapat lagi menghentikan bencana besar.

Things could have fallen apart that year,

Hal - hal di tahun itu bisa saja gagal,

and there was enough turmoil to make it seem like that was what was happening.

dan banyak gejolak membuatnya tampak itulah yang sebenarnya terjadi.

The countries that cast dust into the atmosphere the next summer

Negara pelempar debu ke atmosfer di musim panas berikutnya

to deflect sunlight into space and cool things off for a while --

agar sinar matahari belok dan suhu bumi dingin untuk sementara

these countries were excoriated by many,

negara ini dikritik oleh banyak negara,

but thanked by many more.

tapi lebih banyak diapresiasi.

The sense of emergency grew strong,

Kesadaran darurat tumbuh kuat,

and political instability spread like wildfire.

dan goncangan politik menyebar seperti kebakaran api.

The creation of a dozen new countries by way of divorces, velvet or otherwise,

Beberapa negara baru terbentuk oleh pemisahan, revolusi damai atau sebaliknya,

was hard to reconcile with the climate emergency work.

sulit untuk disatukan dengan usaha penanggulan iklim darurat.

And for some years, history seemed to fall into chaos.

Dan dalam beberapa tahun, sejarah terlihat kacau.

Often seems that way.

Sering terlihat seperti itu.

The global temperatures cooled for a few years after that,

Suhu global mendingin beberapa tahun setelah itu,

and political temperatures cooled as well.

dan suhu politik juga mendingin.

Indigenous people took an active role in managing the lands

Penduduk asli mengambil peran aktif untuk mengola tanah

yang dianggap terbaik,

that they knew the best,

bringing back much-needed values of long-term care.

membawa kembali perawatan jangka panjang yang diperlukan.

Women's empowerment continued to expand

Pemberdayaan wanita terus berkembang

by way of the continuous and undeniable work of women.

oleh usaha wanita yang berkelanjutan dan nyata.

And when the world's population then began to level off,

Dan saat populasi dunia mulai menurun,

pressures of all kinds were reduced accordingly.

segala jenis tekanan menurun sebagai akibatnya.

The project also of leaving a big percentage of the earth's surface

Proyek yang menyisakan porsi besar permukaan bumi

to our cousin species

pada spesies sepupu kita

gained momentum, with large reserves of wildland connected by habitat corridors

mengalami kemajuan, dengan area hutan luas terhubung dengan koridor habitat

to make migrations possible again.

yang memicu kembali migrasi.

And the mass extinction event that had looked inevitable

Dan kepunahan masal yang tampak tak terelakkan

began to shift into a global project of mutual care.

mulai beralih ke proyek global kepedulian timbal balik.

Although the sunlight deflection of 2028

Sekalipun pembiasan sinar matahari 2028

remains by far the most famous act of geofinessing,

tetap menjadi aksi manipulasi planet yang paling terkenal,

it's important to recall the effort in Antarctica and Greenland

penting untuk mengingat usaha di Antartica dan Greenland

to pump meltwater out from under the great glaciers

untuk memompa air lelehan dari bawah gletser besar

that were then sliding faster and faster into the sea.

yang meluncur semakin cepat ke lautan.

Sea level rise could have been a catastrophe for everybody,

Kenaikan permukaan laut bisa menjadi bencana besar untuk semua orang,

not just near the coastlines, but everybody.

tak hanya bagi daerah pesisir, tapi semua orang.

But removing that meltwater beneath the glaciers

Tapi menghilangkan air lelehan di bawah gletser

caused their ice to bottom out on rock again,

membuat es kembali menghambat laju bebatuan,

slowed the ice back to its historical norms.

memperlambat es kembali ke kondisi normalnya.

Sea level rise is still a concern, of course,

Naiknya permukaan laut masih jadi perhatian,

but in this matter, as in so many,

tapi dalam hal ini,

carbon drawdown is a huge help.

penurunan karbon adalah bantuan besar.

It's the clear signal indicating that we have taken up our responsibility

Inilah sinyal jelas bahwa kita sudah melakukan tanggung jawab kita

for keeping the biosphere in balance,

untuk menjaga keseimbangan biosfer,

that the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere

bahwa bagian per jutaan CO2 di atmosfer

is now under our control

sekarang terkendali

and a matter of international treaty negotiation.

dan bagian dari negosiasi persetujuan internasional.

This is really the great accomplishment of our time.

Ini adalah prestasi yang bagus di masa ini.

It means we can put sea level, along with everything else,

Berarti kita dapat menjaga level laut,

onto a shared path towards long-term stability.

lewat partisipasi bersama untuk jangka panjang.

It's another way in which we can say we now live on the carbon standard.

Dengan kata lain, kita sekarang hidup dengan standar karbon.

We take that for granted now.

Kita anggap ini remeh sekarang.

But 60 years ago, it was a challenge no generation had had to beat.

Tapi 60 tahun lalu, ini tantangan generasi yang tak dapat dikalahkan.

That they did it is something we should be grateful for,

Bahwa mereka berusaha, itu patut kita syukuri.

and indeed, the more historians like me look at the 20s,

dan tentu, makin banyak sejarawan seperti saya melihat era 20an,

the more amazing they become.

makin memukau era tersebut.

Those people really stepped up.

Orang - orang waktu itu benar - benar berusaha.

Thank you.

Terima kasih.