Is the US Headed Towards Another Civil War? | Barbara F. Walter | TED

翻译人员: Alvin Lee 校对人员: Sue Lu

I'm going to talk about a threat

我想讲述一个威胁，

大部分人甚至都不愿去想它。

that most people don't want to think about.

It's too frightening and it doesn't seem real.

它太可怕了，感觉并非真实存在。

That threat is civil war.

这个威胁就是内战。

Since 1946,

从 1946 年以来，

over 250 civil wars have broken out

爆发了超过 250 场内战，

and that number continues to increase.

这个数字还在继续上升。

There are now almost 50 percent more civil wars than there were in 2001.

与 2001 年相比， 目前内战数量增加近 50%。

I've been studying civil wars for over 30 years.

我研究内战已经超过 30 年了。

I've interviewed members of Hamas in the West Bank,

我采访过约旦河西岸的哈马斯成员，

ex-Sinn Féin members in Northern Ireland,

北爱尔兰前新芬党成员，

former members of the FARC in Colombia.

前“哥伦比亚革命武装力量”成员。

I've stood on top of the Golan Heights and stared into Syria

我曾站在戈兰高地眺望叙利亚，

at the top of the Syrian civil war.

那时叙利亚内战最为激烈。

I've driven across Zimbabwe

我曾驾车横穿津巴布韦，

as the military was planning its coup against Robert Mugabe.

那时军方正策划政变 推翻罗伯特·穆加贝统治。

I've been followed and interrogated by members of Myanmar's junta.

我被缅甸军政府成员跟踪和审讯过。

In 2017, I was asked to serve on a task force run by the CIA

2017 年，中央情报局（CIA）邀请我 加入他们主导的一个调查组，

called the Political Instability Task Force.

名叫“政治不稳定特别调查组”。

One of the goals of that task force was to come up with a model

调查组有个目标就是建立一个模型

to help the US government predict

帮助美国政府预测

what countries around the world

哪些国家

were likely to experience ethnic conflict and civil war.

有可能会面临种族冲突和内战。

It turns out that predicting civil war is possible.

原来内战是可以被预测的。

Solid data exists on where and when these conflicts are likely to break out.

有可信数据显示这些冲突 可能爆发的地点时间，

It's just that most people don't know that.

只不过大部分人都不知道而已。

The task force was comprised of two types of people,

调查组由两类人员组成，

experts on civil war like myself and data analysts.

像我这种内战专家和数据分析师。

The experts came up with 38 different factors

专家们总结出 38 种不同的因素，

that they thought could potentially lead a country towards civil war.

可能导致一个国家走向内战。

And some of those factors seemed obvious, like whether a country was poor,

有些因素显而易见， 比如这个国家是否贫穷，

had lots of income inequality

是否收入极端不平等，

or had a government that heavily discriminated

或者政府是否极端歧视

against one particular group.

某一个特定的群体。

It turns out that only two factors were highly predictive

结果只有两个因素具高度预见性，

而它们与专家们以为的大相径庭。

and they weren't the ones the experts expected.

The first was whether a country was an anocracy.

第一个是该国是否半民主半威权政体。

Anocracy is just a fancy term for partial democracy.

半民主半威权政体只是一个花哨术语，

It's a government that's neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic.

意指该政府即非完全民主也非完全独裁，

It's something in between.

而是处于两者之间。

So think about Hungary today.

看看今天的匈牙利，

Hungary holds elections.

匈牙利是有选举的，

Hungarians eagerly go out and vote.

匈牙利人也热衷于参与投票。

It's just that whoever wins those elections

只不过当选的人

can basically do whatever they want.

基本上可以为所欲为。

The second factor

第二个因素是

was whether citizens in these anocracies had formed political parties

这些半民主半威权政体的人民 是否在组建政党时

around identity rather than ideology.

基于身份认同而不是意识形态。

So rather than joining a party because you were liberal or conservative,

加入政党不是因为 你是自由派或保守派，

capitalist or communist,

资本主义者或是共产主义者，

you joined a party because you were Black or white,

而是因为你是黑人或者白人，

Christian or Muslim,

信仰基督教或者伊斯兰教，

Serb or Croat.

是塞尔维亚人或者克罗地亚人。

If a country had these two features,

如果一个国家有以上这两种特征，

the task force considered it at high risk of political violence

调查组会认为它极易发生政治暴力

and put it on a watchlist.

而将它列入观察名单。

It was actually called The Watchlist

它真的就叫做“观察名单”，

and it was sent to the White House.

直接被送进白宫。

So here I was,

一年 4 次，

sitting in a hotel conference room in suburban Virginia four times a year

我都会坐在维吉尼亚州郊区 一家酒店的会议室

with a room full of really smart people.

跟一屋子非常聪明的人在一起。

And we talked about countries in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia,

我们会讨论非洲、中东、中亚的国家，

但我们从来没有讨论过美国。

but we never, ever talked about the United States.

That's because the CIA is legally not allowed

因为法律不允许中情局

to monitor the United States or its citizens.

监控美国或者美国公民。

And that's exactly the way it should be.

本就该如此。

But I was a private citizen and I had this information

但我是一个普通公民， 又有这些信息，

and I could see that both of these factors were emerging in my own country

于是我能看到这两个因素 正在我们国家出现，

and they were emerging at a surprisingly fast rate.

而且出现的速度快得惊人。

The US's democracy has been downgraded three times since 2016.

自 2016 年以来， 美国民主已三次降级。

2016, it was downgraded because international election monitors

2016 年降级是因为 国际选举监督员认为，

had considered the 2016 election free, but not entirely fair.

那年的选举虽是自由的， 但不完全公平。

America's own intelligence agencies had found

美国的情报机构发现

that the Russians had, in fact, meddled in that election.

俄罗斯干涉了那次选举。

It was downgraded again in 2019

2019 年再次降级，

when the White House refused to comply with requests by Congress for information.

当时白宫拒绝向国会提供信息。

And it was downgraded a final time

最后一次降级

at the end of 2020

是在 2020 年底，

when President Trump refused to accept his loss in the 2020 election,

当时特朗普总统拒绝接受 2020 年大选的失败，

and actively attempted to overturn the results.

积极地试图推翻选举结果。

Between December of 2020 and early 2021,

从 2020 年 12月到 2021 年初，

the United States was officially classified as an anocracy.

美国正式被归类为半民主半威权政体。

If the task force had been allowed to monitor and study the United States,

如果调查组能监控和研究美国，

it likely would have considered it at high risk of political instability

那它很可能认为美国处于政局动荡

and political violence in December of 2020,

和政治暴力的高风险中， 尤其是在 2020 年 12 月，

just a few weeks before the January 6 insurrection.

就是 1 月 6 号骚乱发生几周前。

And it likely would have put the United States on the watchlist.

它很可能将美国列入“观察名单”。

We also know who tends to start civil wars.

我们也知道谁往往会发动内战。

And again, it's not the people most of us think.

并不是大家认为的那些人。

It is not the poorest people in society.

不是社会中最穷的那群人，

It is not the people who are most oppressed by their government.

不是被政府压迫最厉害的那群人。

The people who tend to start civil wars, especially ethnically-based civil wars,

倾向于发动内战的， 尤其是基于种族的内战，

are the groups that had once been politically dominant but are in decline.

是那些掌过政权， 如今却在衰落的群体。

If you think back to the former Yugoslavia.

大家回想一下前南斯拉夫。

Serbs had enjoyed most of the positions in government and the military

塞族人享有政府和军队中大多数职位，

throughout the Cold War for decades, for decades.

在冷战几十年中一直如此。

But they were the ones who stood to lose the most

但他们也是失去最多的人，

as Yugoslavia democratized.

随着南斯拉夫的民主化。

The Serbs started that war.

于是塞族人挑起了战争。

Iraq's Sunnis similarly enjoyed most of the key positions

同样，伊拉克逊尼派 在萨达姆·侯赛因治下，

in the military and in government under Saddam Hussein.

占据了军队和政府中众多关键岗位。

But when the United States toppled Saddam Hussein,

但是当美国推翻萨达姆·侯赛因时，

they also threw the Sunnis out of their positions.

他们也将那些逊尼派赶下了台。

It was the Sunnis who started that war.

于是逊尼派挑起了战争。

In the United States, the rise of militias

在美国，民兵组织的崛起，

has been driven primarily by white men

主要是由白人男性推动的，

who see America's identity changing in ways

他们看到美国身份认同的变化，

that directly threatens their status.

朝着威胁他们地位的方向发展。

They were the ones who marched on the capital on January 6.

他们在 1 月 6 日发动了国会山骚乱。

So why is this happening now?

为什么这些会在现在发生？

It's happening now because of demographic change.

是因为人口结构发生了变化。

The United States is in the midst of a major transition

美国正处在一个巨大转型中，

从一个白人占多数的国家

from a country whose population is majority white

to a country whose population will be majority non-white.

变成一个非白人占多数的国家。

The United States will be the first country to go through this,

美国将是第一个 完成这种转型的国家，

but others are going to follow.

其他国家也会紧随其后。

Canada is likely to be next,

加拿大可能是下一个，

followed by New Zealand and then the UK,

接下来是新西兰和英国，

and eventually all the English-speaking countries of the world.

最终是所有讲英语的国家。

This is likely to be especially true

这种情况尤其有可能发生，

if climate change causes citizens from the global South

如果气候变化导致南半球公民

to increasingly move north.

越来越多地向北迁移。

These countries are going to be looking to the United States

这些国家会把目光投向美国，

to see how we manage this demographic shift.

看我们如何应对人口构成的变化。

Americans can allow this transition to tear us apart.

美国人可以任由这种转型 将国家搞得四分五裂，

Or we could use it to come together

或者我们可以借此团结起来，

to show the world how to manage this change

向世界展示如何应对这种转变，

and in the process create a truly multiethnic, multi-religious democracy.

并在这过程中创建真正的 多民族、多宗教的民主国家。

So how do you do this?

那如何做到这一点呢？

The first thing we have to do

我们首先要做的，

is address the two big risk factors of civil war.

是解决导致内战的 两个主要风险因素。

Anocracy and identity politics.

半民主半威权政体和身份政治。

To address anocracy, we have to improve the rule of law.

要解决半民主半威权政体， 我们必须改善法治，

We have to ensure equal access to every citizen to the vote.

保证每一个公民 都有平等的投票权，

We have to reduce corruption

减少腐败，

and we have to improve the quality of government services.

并提高政府服务质量。

But reforming a government takes time.

但是重塑政府需要时间。

Those are not easy things to do and it often seems impossible.

这些要实现都不容易， 甚至似乎不可能。

That's exactly where the United States is today,

这就是美国如今的处境，

almost paralyzed.

几近瘫痪。

This is where business can come in.

这也是企业可以介入的地方。

Thirty years ago,

30 年前，

most of us thought that South Africa was barreling towards civil war.

多数人都认为 南非正滑向内战深渊。

Black South Africans were increasingly protesting

南非黑人的抗议日益增多，

the brutality of the white apartheid regime,

以反对白人种族隔离政权的暴行，

and the government responded with more brutality.

政府则以更残暴的方式回应。

But then something happened.

然而意想不到的事发生了，

The business community stepped in and demanded real democracy.

商界介入进来， 要求真正的民主。

They did this because they had been suffering

他们之所以这么做，

under years of crushing economic sanctions

是因为遭受了多年的 严厉经济制裁，

and eventually they had to choose between apartheid and profits,

最终不得不在种族隔离 和利润中选择，

and they chose profits.

他们选择了利润。

And when they went to the government and said, "We will no longer support you,"

他们对政府说： “我们不再支持你了。”

the apartheid regime knew it could not survive

种族隔离政权知道自己岌岌可危，

and reform happened quickly.

于是改革很快就发生了。

The business community can also help address identity politics

商界还可以帮助 解决身份政治问题，

by investing in those communities that have been left behind

通过投资给落后社群，

by globalization and by free-trade agreements like NAFTA.

支持全球化和自由贸易协定， 例如《北美自由贸易协定》。

In the United States,

在美国，

it was the working class that disproportionately suffered.

受伤害最严重的是工薪阶层。

Those are the communities that are the most angry

他们是如今最愤怒、

and the most resentful today.

最怨恨的社群。

Businesses can invest in better health care,

商界可以投资提供更好的医疗，

better education and a higher minimum wage

更好的教育， 提高最低工资，

so that they create a group of people

这样就能让这个群体

who are hopeful about the future

对未来充满希望，

and less vulnerable to the calls by extremists to burn the system down.

不再轻易被极端分子 煽动去推翻政权。

But there's perhaps an easier solution, at least in the short term.

但也许还有更容易的解决方案，

至少从短期来看。

At least in the short term.

And that is to regulate social media,

那就是规范社交媒体，

especially the algorithms that push out the most incendiary and divisive material.

尤其要规范那些算法， 它们推送着最具煽动性和分裂性内容。

I'm not saying that we should censor free speech.

我不是说要审查自由言论。

Let people put whatever they want on social media,

大家可以在社交媒体上畅所欲言，

but do not allow the algorithms

但是不应该允许算法

to amplify the messages by bullies and hatemongers

去扩散那些恃强凌弱者、 仇恨煽动者、

and conspiracy theorists and enemies of democracy.

阴谋论者和民主的敌人发布的信息。

If we take away their bullhorn, their influence will decline.

如果我们夺走他们的扩音器， 他们的影响将会降低。

I've interviewed a lot of people who have lived through a civil war

我采访过许多经历过内战的人，

and they all say the same thing.

他们都说了同样的话。

"I didn't see it coming."

“我根本没觉得它会发生。”

"I didn't see it coming."

“我根本没觉得它会发生。”

Berina Kovac was a young mother

贝里纳·科瓦奇是一位年轻的母亲，

living in Sarajevo at the beginning of the Bosnian civil war.

波斯尼亚内战初期， 她生活在萨拉热窝。

She told me that in the months and weeks leading up to that war,

她说在战争爆发前的 几个月甚至几周，

life seemed normal.

生活看起来很正常。

She went to work.

她每天上班，

She took weekend holidays with her husband.

跟丈夫周末度假，

They went to the weddings of their friends.

去参加朋友的婚礼。

But then one night in March of 1992,

但 1992 年 3 月的一个晚上，

when she was at home with her newborn son,

当她和刚出生的儿子在家里时，

the lights suddenly went out.

灯突然全灭了。

And then she said,

她接着说，

you started to hear machine guns.

她开始听到机枪的声音。

It doesn't have to be this way.

本来不必走到这一步的。

We know an enormous amount about why these terrible wars start.

我们对这些可怕战争的起因 有大量了解。

We know that the people intent on violence have a playbook.

我们知道这些想诉诸暴力的人 都有一本行动手册,

We know what that playbook is.

我们知道这本行动手册的内容。

But there's no reason why we,

所以，没有任何理由，

the democracy-loving people of this world,

我们这些热爱民主的人，

can't create our own playbook to prevent civil war.

不创作一本自己的 行动手册来防止内战。

But to do that,

但是要做到这一点，

we have to be brave enough to fight for real democracy,

我们必须勇敢地 为了真正的、强大的

strong democracy,

民主而战，

because only by fighting for democracy

因为只有为民主而战，

can we ensure that we will truly get peace.

我们才能确保真正实现和平。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）