What if a US presidential candidate refuses to concede after an election? | Van Jones

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz

翻译人员: Lark Yu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

OK, as an attorney, as a political commentator,

OK，我是一名律师及政治评论员，

and frankly, as a former White House official,

坦率讲，还是一名前白宫官员，

I used to think I knew a lot

我曾以为自己对美国

about how America picks a president.

如何选举总统非常了解。

I was wrong, I did not know.

我大错特错，我并不懂。

And this year,

而今年，

I've been doing some research into some of the fine print

我一直在研究一些 字体印刷得很小的文件，

and all the different things in our constitution

以及我们宪法中从未讨论过的

that we never talk about,

各项不同内容，

and I've discovered some legal loopholes

我发现了一些让我震惊的

that shocked me,

法律漏洞，

I guarantee will shock you,

我敢保证你们也会有同感，

and could determine the way

这个发现或许会决定

that the presidential election of 2020 turns out.

2020 年总统大选的最终结果走向。

For instance, did you know that under our constitution

举个例子，你知道在我们的宪法下，

a presidential candidate could actually lose the popular vote,

一位总统候选人可能输掉普选，

fail to get a majority in the electoral college,

没能得到多数的选举团选票，

refuse to concede,

拒绝承认败选，

manipulate hidden mechanisms in our government

操纵政府中的潜在机制，

and still get sworn in as the president of the United States of America?

然后仍能宣誓就职美国总统？

That's a true fact.

事实就是如此。

I know it sounds like some crazy "House of Cards" episode,

我也知道这听起来就像 《纸牌屋》中疯狂的一集，

and I wish it was,

而我希望它是，

because then we could just change the channel,

因为这样我们只要换台就好，

but I just described to you a real-world, real-life possibility

但我要跟大家说明的是 真实世界、现实生活的可能性，

that could occur this year, the year I'm talking, in 2020,

今年有可能发生，我在说 2020 年，

or in some other year,

或者其他选举年，

if we don't fix some of these glitches in our system.

我们只有完善体制中的漏洞，才能避免。

So if you think, though,

如果你还是认为

that the American people's choice in a US presidential election

在美国总统大选中，美国人民所选的人

should actually be sworn in to become president of the United States,

就应当宣誓就任美国总统，

please pay attention to this talk.

请专心听这场演说。

I'm going to teach you how to stop a coup, OK?

我要教大家如何阻止一场政变，好吗？

Now, where to begin?

现在，要从何说起呢？

Alright, how about this:

好吧，就从这开始：

It turns out that one of the main safeguards of US democracy

结果就是美国民主的主要保障之一

is not in the constitution at all.

完全不存在于宪法之中，

It's not in the law at all.

完全不在法律条例之内。

It's actually just a little tradition, it's a little custom.

实际上取决于一个小传统、小习俗。

And yet, this one voluntary gesture

然而，这个自愿举动

is one of the main reasons

是非常重要的因素，

that you almost never have riots and bloodshed and strife

因为它，美国大选后才会

after a US election.

几乎没有骚乱、流血和冲突。

What I'm talking about is a concession speech.

我指的就是败选演说。

OK, it's ironic,

是的，很讽刺，

it's the one speech no presidential candidate ever wants to give,

没有总统候选人会想要做一个败选演说，

and yet, it is that public address

然而，正是这个公开致辞

that is most important for the health

却对我们国家的健康、福祉

and the well-being of our nation.

至关重要。

It's that speech, you know, when a presidential contender gives,

就是那个演讲，总统竞选者 发表这个演说的时机

it's after the advisers come and the media tells them,

是在顾问来了之后，媒体告诉他们的，

"Look, you're not going to get enough votes

“看，你目前无法获得足够的选票，

to be able to hit that magic number of 270 electoral college votes.

不可能获得 270 张 这个魔法数字的选举人票，

You're just not going to get there."

你已经不可能拿到了。”

At that moment --

就在那个时刻——

you don't think about this,

你不会想到，

but the fate of the entire republic

然而整个国家的命运

is in the hands of a single politician

就掌握在一个政治人物手中，

and their willingness to walk out there

就看他们是否愿意站出来，

and stand in front of their family and stand in front of the cameras

站在他的家人面前，站在镜头前，

and stand in front of the whole nation

还有站在全国面前，

and say, "I am conceding the race, voluntarily.

说：“我自愿承认竞选失败，

Thank you to my supporters.

感谢我的支持者们，

The other person has won now, congratulations to them,

恭喜赢得选举的对手，

let's unite behind them, let's move on, let's be one country.

让我们在他们的领导下团结， 向前迈进，全国一心，

God bless America."

天佑美国。”

You've seen it a thousand times.

这个场景你看过无数遍。

Make no mistake,

别误会，

this is a remarkable tradition in our country.

这是我们国家很棒的传统。

Because at that moment,

因为，那一刻，

that candidate still has at her command

那位候选人仍然有能力号召

a nationwide army of campaign activists,

一支全国级的竞选活动大军

of die-hard partisans,

成员大多数是死忠党，

tens of thousands of people.

数以万计的人。

They could just as easily take up arms,

他们可以轻而易举地拿起武器，

take to the streets,

走上街头，

they could do whatever they want to.

为所欲为。

But that concession speech instantly demobilizes all of them.

但那个败选演说 能够瞬间解散他们所有人。

It says, "Hey, guys, stand down.

似乎在宣告：“嗨，伙计们，停下。

Folks, it's over."

各位，结束了。”

Moreover, that concession speech

此外，一场败选演讲

helps the tens of millions of people who voted for that person

也帮助数千万投票给该候选人的民众

to accept the outcome.

接受竞选结果。

Acknowledge the winner, however begrudgingly,

不管多么不情愿，都要承认胜利者，

and then just get up the next morning,

明天还是得照常起床，

go to work, go to school,

上班、上学，

maybe disappointed

或许会失望，

but not disloyal to America's government.

但不会对美国政府不忠。

And even more importantly,

而更重要的是，

that concession speech has a technical function

那场败选演说还有个技术功能

in that it kind of allows all the other stuff

它可以让宪法要求在投票后 必须推进的所有事项开始交接，

that our constitution requires after the voting,

投票后

and there are a bunch of steps like,

还有一大堆程序要走，

you've got the electoral college that has got to meet,

选举人团要开会，

you've got Congress who's got to ratify this thing,

你要得到国会的批准，

you've got an inauguration to be had,

你需要举办就职典礼，

all that stuff can just move ahead on automatic pilot

所有这一切有条不紊向前推进，

because after the concession speech,

因为在败选演说之后，

every subsequent step

后续的每一步

to either reinstate the president or elevate a new president

不论是现任总统连任 还是让新总统上任，

just happens on a rubber-stamp basis.

就会像例行公事一样进行。

The constitution requires it, but it's a rubber stamp.

这些是宪法做出的规定， 但只是例行公事而已。

But we sometimes forget, candidates do not have to concede.

但是我们有时会忘记 候选人并不需要承认败选，

There's nothing that makes them concede.

没有什么机制能让他们承认败选。

It's just a norm in a year in which nothing is normal.

只是选举年的一个惯例， 而期间一切都异乎寻常。

So what if a losing candidate simply refuses to concede?

那如果失利候选人 直接拒绝承认败选会怎样？

What if there is no concession speech?

如果没有败选演讲呢？

Well, what could happen might terrify you.

好，可能发生的事情或许会让你害怕。

I think it should.

我觉得会。

First, to give you the background,

首先，先给你各位一些背景信息，

let's make sure we're on the same page,

确保我们在同一频道，

let me give you this analogy.

给大家打个比方。

Think about a presidential election as a baseball game.

把总统大选想成是一场棒球比赛，

The end of the ninth inning,

第九局即将结束，

whoever is ahead wins, whoever is behind loses.

领先的获胜，落后的失败，

That's baseball.

那是棒球。

But could you imagine a different world

但你能设想一个不同的世界，

in which, in baseball,

棒球比赛

there were actually 13 innings, or 14 innings, not just nine.

其实有 13 局或 14 局，而不是 9 局。

But we just had a weird tradition.

但我们却有一个奇怪的传统，

If you are behind in the ninth inning,

如果你在第九局中落后，

you just come out and concede.

你要出来承认输球。

Alright?

好吗？

So all those other innings don't matter.

因此，其余的赛局都无所谓。

That's really how the presidential elections work in America.

美国大选现在就是这种状况。

Because the constitution actually spells out

因为其实宪法有详述

two different sets of innings.

两组不同的球局设定。

You've got the popular election process that everybody pays attention to.

有一个是大家都在关注的普选流程，

And then you've got the elite selection process

还有一个是精英选举流程，

that everybody essentially ignores.

基本上大家都忽略了它。

But in a close election,

但是在胜负接近的选举中，

if nobody concedes,

如果没有人承认败选，

the second invisible process,

这第二个隐形流程

these extra innings if you will,

或者说这些额外“加时赛”

they actually matter a whole lot.

其实就非常重要了。

Let me explain.

让我来解释一下。

That first set of innings, popular election,

第一组球局设定，即普选，

it's what you think about

就是你能想到的

when you think about the presidential election.

总体大选。

It's the primaries, the caucuses, the debates,

初选、党团和辩论，

the conventions, it's election night,

多场总统辩论，以及选举之夜，

it's all that stuff.

所有这些程序。

Most of the time, the loser on election night

大多数情况，选举之夜的落败方

at that point just concedes.

会当即承认败选。

Why? "The American people have spoken."

为什么？“美国人民已经发话了。”

All that.

一切尘埃落定。

But according to the constitution, the game is technically not over.

但是根据宪法规定， 技术层面的较量并未结束。

After the cameras go away,

在媒体聚光灯移开后，

after the confetti's swept away,

庆典的彩带都扫干净后，

the constitution requires this whole other set of innings.

宪法启动了另一组赛局的角逐，

This elite selection process stuff,

这就是精英选举流程，

and this is all behind closed doors,

而且都是关起门来进行的，

it's among government officials.

是政府官员之间的事情。

And this process goes from the end of the vote counting in November,

而且这个程序从 11 月投票计数结束开始，

through December all the way and then January.

直到 12 月并持续到 1 月。

You just never think about it,

你可能从未想到，

because for so many generations,

因为在历任总统选举过程，

these extra innings haven't mattered much

这种附加程序作用并不太大，

because the election-night loser just concedes.

而选举夜的败选者也愿赌服输。

So this other stuff is just a formality.

而这种程序也仅是一种形式而已。

Even in 2000,

即使在 2000 年，

vice president Al Gore gave up

副总统阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore)

as soon as the Supreme Court ordered an end to the vote counting.

在高等法院裁定计票结束， 随后就承认败选。

Gore did not continue the fight into the state legislatures,

戈尔并没有将争议提请国家司法机构裁决，

into the electoral college,

提请至选举团，

into Congress,

直到国会，

he didn't try to discredit the results in the press.

他也没有试图质疑媒体发布的选举结果。

Frankly, he didn't send his supporters out into the streets

坦率地讲，他甚至 没有将那些举着抗议标牌

with protest signs

或者利叉和长枪的

or pitchforks or long guns.

抗议者送到街上。

As soon as the court said the vote count is done,

高院宣布选举计票结束

he just conceded to George W. Bush.

他立刻就承认败给小布什。

Because that's what we do,

因为这就是我们国家 当选总统的一贯做法，

that's just kind of how we do things around here.

这就是我们此时此地的行事方式。

You don't fight in the extra innings.

我们无需启动额外的较量。

Until maybe 2020,

或许直到 2020 年，

when one major candidate is already saying

一位主要候选人已经发声

he may not accept the results of the vote counting.

他可能不接受选举结果。

Curse you 2020.

该死的 2020 。

So what can happen instead?

那么，接下来会发生什么？

Instead of conceding,

与承认败选不同，

a losing candidate could launch a ferocious fight to grab power anyway.

失利候选人可能发起猛烈反击 想尽一些办法攫取权力。

Or to hold onto power anyway.

或无论如何都要掌握权力。

In the courts, yes.

在法庭上，当然也不例外。

But also in the state houses, electoral college, even in Congress.

但同时在参议院、选举团，甚至是国会中。

They could file, for instance, dozens of lawsuits

他们可能发起数十起法律诉讼，

attempting to block the counting of millions of, like, mail-in ballots,

企图阻止数百万的邮寄选举票，

saying they should all be thrown out, they're all fraudulent.

声称它们应该排除在外， 它们全都是选举欺诈。

Then, they could demand

接下来，因为存在着这些指控的欺诈，

that the states refuse to certify the election

或来自外来势力的干涉，

because of all this alleged fraud,

他们可能要求

or interference from a foreign power.

州政府拒绝承认选举结果。

Or the loser's party could send a rival slate of electors

或失利政党可能派出一批选举人

to the electoral college or to Congress,

进入选举团或国会，

and say, "We're the real electors,"

并声称：“我们是真正的选举人，”

and create a whole situation with that.

用这个方式创造出新局面。

Any of this stuff could create such a mess

任何上述方式都会给

in the electoral college and the Congress,

选举团和国会带来混乱，

that the whole matter just winds up in front of the House of Representatives

整个事件则会在众议院继续发酵，

for the first time since the 1800s.

这是自 19 世纪以来史无前例的。

Now, here's where it gets totally crazy.

现在，还有一个更加荒谬的地方。

If the presidential election winds up in the House of Representatives,

如果选举闹到了众议院中，

they don't have to pay any attention at all to the popular vote

议员们则无需在意普选结果

or the electoral vote.

或选举人投票，

It's like the election never happened.

就像大选从未发生。

And then it gets even crazier.

接下来，还有更扯的。

The final tally in the House is taken not by delegates

负责最后机票的不是众议院代表，

but by delegation.

而是代表团。

In other words,

换而言之，

individual congresspeople don't get to vote.

国会议员个人不能去投票，

It's done by states.

是由州政府投票。

Now, get your head wrapped around this.

此刻请记住这点。

In 2020, the majority of Americans live in blue states,

2020 年，大多数美国人居住在蓝州，

but there are more red states.

但红州的数目更加多：

So there's a possibility

因此有种可能

that the Republicans in the House of Representatives

在众议院的共和党员

could just anoint their candidate to be president,

在没有赢得普选

和大多数选举团选票的情况下，

even without the popular vote,

or a majority in electoral college.

能够把他们的候选人推上总统，

That could happen.

那是完全有可能发生的。

Now some people would call that outcome

现在有些人会把这样的结果称之为

a perfectly legal,

一场完全合法、

perfectly constitutional coup

完美依法推进的政变，

against the very idea of majority rule in the United States.

推翻美国由多数人统治的想法。

That is possible under our constitution,

在我们现有宪法条件下，这是有可能的，

and it can happen this year.

而今年就可能发生。

So what can you do about it?

那么，你我能做些什么？

OK now, keep in mind,

好，现在，要记住，

if the margin of the victory is so massive,

如果胜负差距非常大

it's truly massive,

非常之大，

the losing candidate's political party is going to walk away

失败候选人所在政党则会拱手相让，

and just let their leader go down.

让他们的候选人接受现实。

Nobody is going to risk a constitutional crisis

没有人愿意冒违反宪法的风险

to save somebody who is super unpopular.

来拯救一个极不受欢迎的候选人。

But if the race is close,

但是如果选举结果很接近，

all bets are off.

就完全无法预测了。

And then the fight could continue long past election night.

而两党候选人的斗争 持续至选举夜后很久。

You could be, you know, trying to deal impact

你可能非常想知道其中的影响，

this whole other process you never heard of before.

这其中的程序你闻所未闻。

You're going to have to be lobbying,

你将需要去游说、

protesting, speaking out, contacting lawmakers,

抗议、发表观点、联系立法者，

a whole other process you've never done before.

你从未做过的另一个流程。

So landing in this completely unfamiliar scenario,

陷入这种史无前例的陌生状况，

what can you do?

你能做些什么？

How are we supposed to act?

我们应该怎么应对？

What are we supposed to do in this situation?

在这种情况下我们应该做些什么？

There's basically three things that matter.

基本上，有三件事至关重要。

Number one, get informed.

第一，保持信息畅通。

A number of progressive organizations are already working hard

不少先进组织已经在全力以赴

to warn Americans about this growing threat to our democracy.

警告美国民众这个 对民主越来越大的威胁。

Some organizations you could look into and research for yourself:

你可以去看看并研究下这些组织：

choosedemocracy.us,

choosedemocracy.us，

electiontaskforce.org,

electiontaskforce.org,

protectdemocracy.org,

protectdemocracy.org，

mobilize.us,

mobilize.us,

allamericans.org,

allamericans.org，

civicalliance.com

civicalliance.com

and the Fight Back table at demos.org.

以及在 demos.org 的 Fight Back table。

All these groups are working on this.

所有这些团体都在为此努力。

Now, on the right, if that's your cup of tea,

那么，你站在右边，如果那是你的菜，

you could also check out The Heritage Foundation

也可以看看美国传统基金会 （The Heritage Foundation），

or the Government Accountability Institute.

或者政府问责研究所

They are focused on voter fraud.

他们关注投票舞弊，

But you've got to get informed, no matter what side you're on.

无论你是左派还是右派， 你都得多了解信息。

Also, number two,

同时，第二点，

you've got to get loud.

你必须大胆发声，

You've got to get loud.

你必须大胆发声。

Situation like this, these days, everybody is a media channel.

在当今的情况下， 每个人都是媒体频道，

You are the media.

你就是媒体。

So use your own voice.

因此，要发出自己的声音。

And when you do, my advice:

当你要做时，我的建议是：

speak to universal American values, not the partisan stuff, OK?

谈谈众所周知的美国价值观， 而不要带有党派偏见，好吗？

Speak to the American values that every American should be down with,

谈谈美国价值观， 所有美国人都认同的价值观，

no matter what party they're in.

无论他们属于哪个政党。

The idea that every voter counts

每个选举人的投票都算数，

and that every vote should be counted,

以及每张选票都要计算在内，

that's an American value, period.

这就是美国的价值观，就这样。

The notion that the majority should rule in America,

认为美国应当由多数人来主导，

that's an American value.

这就是美国的价值观。

The idea that an incumbent president

在任总统应该

should concede honorably and graciously

有风度、优雅地承认败选，

and ensure a peaceful transfer of power,

并确保权力的和平交接的想法，

rather than trying to use every trick in the book

而不是运用书上的种种伎俩，

to hang on to power,

贪恋权力，

that's an American value too.

这也是美国的价值观。

If you stick with those values,

如果你坚持这些价值观，

you're going to be heard by a lot more people

会有更多人听见你，

and help bring the country together.

并帮助共同将国家团结起来。

And lastly, sorry folks, voting is not enough,

最后，抱歉伙计们，投票并不够，

You're going to have to get active, get involved.

你需要积极主动参与进来。

You could join and support with your money.

你可以参与，通过捐款给予支持。

Some existing organizations, powerful groups,

某些现有的组织，非常有影响力的团体，

like the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights,

比如民权的领袖大会，

the ACLU,

美国公民自由协会（ACLU），

NAACP, Legal Defense Fund,

全国有色人种协进会（NAACP）, 法律保护基金（Legal Defense Fund)，

Indivisible, ColorOfChange.org,

Invisible 和 ColorOfChange.org，

these groups are going to be fighting in the courts,

这些团体将会在法庭中斗争，

fighting in Congress,

在国会中发声，

to try to make sure that we have a fair outcome.

尽力确保我们有一个公平的结果。

Those groups could use your help and your donations.

这些团需要你的帮助和捐款。

But if it gets to the point

如果进程达到某个时刻，

where you feel

你感觉到

that you have to take it to the streets,

必须走上街头，

that you're going to have to go outside

你就必须要走出去，

and demonstrate and march and protest,

进行示威、游行和抗议，

please do it peacefully.

请以和平方式进行，

This is not just philosophy or morality.

这并不仅仅牵涉理念或道德。

A lot of studies have shown

许多研究表明

that it's the peaceful protests

和平方式的抗议

that are more successful at challenging these would-be dictators

比较有可能成功挑战

and reversing coup attempts.

那些想要成为独裁者的人。

It's the peaceful ones, why?

为什么是和平方式有效？

Because when the protests turn violent,

因为一旦抗议演化成暴力行为，

all that chaos and carnage actually chases away supporters.

所有的混乱和屠杀 实际上都会吓跑支持者，

So rather than demonstrations getting bigger,

所以示威游行并不会扩张，

and the protests getting bigger,

抗议并不会升级，

they start to shrink.

反而开始缩小，

Then the government looks reasonable when it cracks down.

而后当政府严厉制裁抗议 就会看起来合情合理了。

So it's actually a lot better

因此，比较好的方式是遵从

to follow the guidance of the late great Gene Sharp.

已故伟人基恩·夏普 （Gene Sharp）的建议。

Now he has written beautifully and well

他用优美且出色的方式

about how strategically you can roll back a coup

描绘了你能够如何 用非常聪明、非常有纪律

just using very smart, very disciplined, very nonviolent protest.

非常和平的抗议来击退政变。

And a lot of his best ideas, and people have been influenced by that,

他有很多很棒的想法，激励了许多的人，

are available in a new guidebook called,

收录在一本新书叫

"Hold the Line."

《坚守阵地（Hold the Line）》。

You can look it up,

你可以去查查，

it's called "Hold the Line, The Guide to Defending Democracy."

完整标题《坚守阵地：捍卫民主的指南 （Hold the Line,

The Guide to Defending Democracy ）》。

You can get that at holdthelineguide.com.

你可以在 holdthelineguide.com 找到。

And that can give you a real good framework

这本书能为你提供一个良好的框架， 用聪明且和平的方式向前迈进，

to move forward in a smart, peaceful way

if you feel that you've got to take it to the streets.

如果你觉得有必要走上街头， 这本书会有所帮助。

Now look,

看，

I know all this stuff is overwhelming,

我知道这些内容有些难以消化，

and I've got to admit, some of these steps may not be enough.

因此，我必须承认 其中有些举动可能还不够。

A truly rogue president

而真正的无赖总统

could call on private armed militia

可以号召私人武装力量

to try to intimidate lawmakers into keeping him or her in power.

试图恐吓立法当局， 确保他紧握权力之杖。

Or they could just abuse their emergency powers

或者他们可能滥用紧急权力，

and try to stay in office indefinitely.

试图无限期掌权。

So we've got some real problems in our system.

我们的体制真的有一些问题。

The best way to stop a coup

阻止政变的最好方法

is to update and strengthen our democratic system

就是选举之后尽快

as soon as this election is over.

完善和加强我们的民主制度。

Maybe we need to rethink, reimagine or just get rid of

或许我们需要重新思考、 重新想象，或干脆替换掉

this whole electoral college, extra inning thing in the first place.

选举人制度和额外 “加时赛” 的做法。

I know for sure

我很确定

we've got to do a better job of protecting voter rights,

在保护选举人权利、 起诉恐吓选民行为方面，

of prosecuting voter intimidation

我们可以把工作做得更加完善。

and also making sure we've got the technology

此外，我们也要确保我们拥有必要技术，

that nobody needs to be afraid of voter fraud.

让大家无需担心选举舞弊的现象。

These are the steps that we're going to have to take

这些是为了确保我们拥有民主， 并且会让民主继续下去

to make sure that we have a democracy and the democracy endures.

需要采取的举措。

Because never forget this:

因为，永远别忘了：

in the long sweep of human history,

在人类历史长河中，

a democratic republic

一个民主的共和制度

is the rarest form of government on earth.

是地球上最稀缺的政府形式。

Democracies are fragile.

民主很脆弱，

Democracies can fail.

民主可能会失败。

And what citizens do or fail to do in a moment of crisis

而民众在危机时刻的作为和不为

can determine the final fate

能决定一个民治、民有、民享政府

of government of, by and for the people.

最终的命运。

So let's do our best, vote, but this time,

所以，让我们全力以赴， 去投票，但这一次，

we've got to stay vigilant and active,

我们甚至得在计票结束之后，

even after the ballots have been counted.

保持警醒和积极主动。

We've got to stay active all the way through

坚持到就职典礼那天

to inauguration day.

要一直保持积极主动。

But I want to say to you,

但我想告诉大家的是，

I will support the winner of a free and fair election

我会支持在自由、公平选举中 产生出的最终胜利者，

no matter which candidate wins,

无论哪位候选人获胜，

and I will oppose any so-called winner

而我将反对任何通过扭曲流程

who prevails by twisting the process beyond recognition.

而获得胜利的所谓赢家。

Because any American should be willing to concede an election,

因为任何美国人都应坦然接受选举结果，

but no American should concede

但没有一个美国人应该

the core principles of democracy itself.

对民主本身的核心原则让步。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。