What would happen if we upload our brains to computers? | Robin Hanson

翻译人员: Lin Zhang 校对人员: Wilde Luo

Someday, we may have robots as smart as people,

总有一天，机器人 会像人类一样聪明，

artificial intelligence, AI.

这要归功于人工智能，简称AI。

How could that happen?

这是怎样发生的呢？

One route is that we'll just keep accumulating better software,

一种方法是我们将不断地 积累技术，开发出更好的软件，

like we've been doing for 70 years.

我们已经这样做了70年了。

At past rates of progress, that may take centuries.

按照过去的发展速度来看， 这可能需要几个世纪的时间。

Some say it'll happen a lot faster

有人说，当我们发现

as we discover grand new powerful theories of intelligence.

更新颖、更强大的智能理论时， 它将会更快地发生。

I'm skeptical.

我对此持怀疑态度。

But a third scenario

但还有第三种情况，

is what I'm going to talk about today.

也是我今天要讲的。

The idea is to port the software from the human brain.

这个想法是从人脑中移植出智能软件。

To do this, we're going to need three technologies to be good enough,

要做到这一点，需要 让三种技术的发展足够成熟，

and none of them are there yet.

但目前还为时尚早。

First, we're going to need lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers.

首先，我们需要很多便宜的， 高性能的，并行的计算机。

Second, we're going to need to scan individual human brains

第二，我们需要精确地 从空间与化学细节上

in fine spatial and chemical detail,

来扫描个人的大脑，

to see exactly what cells are where, connected to what, of what type.

才能确切地知道什么类型的细胞 位于哪里，它又连接着什么结构。

And third, we're going to need computer models

并且第三，我们需要一种电脑模型，

of how each kind of brain cell works --

它包含了每一种 脑细胞的工作原理——

taking input signals, changing interval state

接受输入信号，改变间隔状态，

and sending output signals.

然后发送输出信号。

If we have good enough models of all the kinds of brain cells

如果我们有足够多的 各类大脑细胞模型，

and a good enough model of the brain,

与一个足够好的大脑模型，

we can put it together to make a good enough model of an entire brain,

我们就可以把它们结合在一起来 形成一个足够完整的大脑模型，

and that model would have the same input-output behavior as the original.

并且这个模型的输入输出行为 和人类大脑一样。

So if you talk to it, it might talk back.

所以如果你跟它说话， 它可能会回话。

If you ask it to do things, it might do them.

如果你让它去做事情，它可能会做。

And if we could do that, everything would change.

如果我们能做到这一点， 一切都会改变。

People have been talking about this idea for decades,

几十年来人们一直在谈论这个想法，

under the name of "uploads."

以“上传”的名义。

I'm going to call them "ems."

我把它们叫做“仿真脑 (em)”。

When they talk about it, they say,

当他们谈论这个时会说，

"Is this even possible?

”这真的可能吗？

If you made one, would it be conscious? Or is it just an empty machine?

如果你做了一个，它会有意识的吗？ 或者它只是一个空壳的机器？

If you made one of me, is that me or someone else?"

如果你创造了一个‘我’， 那它到底是我还是其他人？”

These are all fascinating questions that I'm going to ignore ...

我将忽略这些令人着迷的问题……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

because I see a neglected question:

因为我看到了一个被忽视的问题：

What would actually happen?

究竟会发生什么事？

I became obsessed with this question.

我对这个问题很痴迷。

I spent four years trying to analyze it,

我花了四年时间来分析它，

using standard academic tools, to guess what would happen,

使用标准的学术工具， 来猜测会发生什么，

and I'm here to tell you what I found.

下面我就来说一说我的发现。

But be warned --

但是要注意——

I'm not offering inspiration, I'm offering analysis.

我不提供灵感，只提供分析结果。

I see my job as telling you what's most likely to happen

我的工作就是告诉你 最有可能会发生的事情，

if we did the least to avoid it.

如果我们没有努力避免它的话。

If you aren't at least a bit disturbed by something I tell you here,

如果你对我在这里告诉 你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话，

you're just not paying attention.

那你只是没有认真听。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

OK, the first thing I can tell you

好的，我首先要告诉你们的是，

is that ems spend most of their life in virtual reality.

仿真脑的大部分时间 都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。

This is what you might look like if you were using virtual reality.

如果你使用虚拟现实， 这就是你的样子。

And this is what you might see:

这就是你们可能看到的：

sunlight glinting off of water, you might hear gulls flying above,

阳光在水面上闪闪发光， 你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔，

you might even feel the wind on your cheeks or smell seawater,

在高级硬件的帮助下， 你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风，

with advanced hardware.

或者闻到海水的味道。

Now, if you were to spend a lot of time here,

如果你要花很多时间在这里，

你可能想要一个仪表盘，

you might want a dashboard

where you could do things like make a phone call,

让你可以做一些事情， 比如打个电话，

move to a new virtual world,

移动到一个新的虚拟世界，

check your bank account.

检查你的银行账户。

Now, while this is what you would look like in virtual reality,

这就是置身于 虚拟现实中的你真正的样子，

this is what an em would look like in virtual reality.

同样在虚拟现实中， 这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。

It's computer hardware sitting in a server rack somewhere.

它是放在某处一个 服务器柜里的电脑硬件。

But still, it could see and experience the same thing.

但是，它仍然可以看到 和体验到同样的东西。

But some things are different for ems.

但对于仿真脑来说， 有些事情是不同的。

First, while you'll probably always notice that virtual reality isn't entirely real,

首先，你可能会注意到 虚拟现实并不是完全真实的，

to an em, it can feel as real to them as this room feels to you now

而对仿真脑来说，就像你 对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样，

or as anything ever feels.

一切如此真实。

And ems also have some more action possibilities.

并且仿真脑在行动上 也有更多的可能性。

For example, your mind just always runs at the same speed,

例如，你的大脑总是 以恒定的速度运行，

but an em can add more or less computer hardware to run faster or slower,

但是一个仿真脑可以通过增减 计算机硬件来调整运行速度，

and therefore, if the world around them seems to be going too fast,

因此，如果它们觉得周围的 世界发展得太快了，

they can just speed up their mind,

就可以加快思维速度，

and the world around them would seem to slow down.

这样它们周围的世界似乎就会变慢。

In addition, an em can make a copy of itself at that moment.

此外，一个仿真脑还可以 在那个时候复制自己的副本。

This copy would remember everything the same,

这个拷贝会记住所有的东西，

and if it starts out with the same speed, looking at the same speed,

如果它以同样的速度开始运行， 以相同的速度观察一切，

it might even need to be told, "You are the copy."

那可能还需要告诉它： “你只是复制品。”

And em could make archive copies,

仿真脑也可以制作存档，

and with enough archives,

如果有足够的档案，

an em can be immortal --

一个仿真脑也可以是不朽的——

in principle, though not usually in practice.

这是从原理上讲， 不过在现实中不太常见。

And an em can move its brain, the computer that represents its brain,

一个仿真脑可以移动它的大脑， 也就是承载它的大脑的电脑，

from one physical location to another.

从一个物理位置到另一个物理位置。

Ems can actually move around the world at the speed of light,

事实上，仿真脑可以 以光速在世界上移动，

and by moving to a new location,

通过移动到一个新的位置，

they can interact more quickly with ems near that new location.

它们可以更快地与 在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。

So far, I've been talking about what ems can do.

到目前为止，我一直在 讨论仿真脑能做什么。

What do ems choose to do?

但仿真脑会选择做什么呢？

To understand that, we'll need to understand three key facts.

要理解这一点， 我们需要理解三个关键的事实。

First, ems by definition do what the human they emulate would do

首先，根据定义，仿真脑在同一情况下 理应会做出它们所模仿的人类

in the same situation.

所做的事情。

So their lives and behavior are very human.

所以它们的生活和 行为是非常人性化的。

They're mainly different because they're living in a different world.

其中的区别主要归因于 他们生活在一个不同的世界。

Second, ems need real resources to survive.

其次，仿真脑需要 真正的资源来生存。

You need food and shelter or you'll die.

你需要食物与住所，否则就性命不保。

Also, ems need computer hardware, energy, cooling, or they can't exist.

同样，仿真脑需要计算机硬件、 电源、散热，不然它们将不能生存。

For every subjective minute that an em experiences,

对于仿真脑经历的每一个主观时刻，

someone, usually that em, had to work to pay for it.

某个“人”——它通常是仿真脑本身， 需要为此工作赚钱。

Third, ems are poor.

第三，仿真脑很穷。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The em population can grow quicker than the em economy,

仿真脑社会的人口增长速度 快于仿真脑的经济体，

so that means wages fall down to em subsistence levels.

这意味着它们的工资水平 将会低到仅能维持生活，

That means ems have to be working most of the time.

仿真脑的大部分时间都必须工作。

So that means this is what ems usually see:

这也意味着仿真脑通常会看到：

beautiful and luxurious, but desks --

美丽又豪华的，办公桌——

they're working most of the time.

他们大部分的时间都在工作。

Now, a subsistence wage scenario, you might think, is exotic and strange,

你可能会认为，这种只能赚取 勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思，

but it's actually the usual case in human history,

但这种情况在人类历史上并不罕见，

and it's how pretty much all wild animals have ever lived,

也几乎是所有野生动物的生活方式，

所以我们知道人类 在这种情况下会做什么。

so we know what humans do in this situation.

Humans basically do what it takes to survive,

人类基本上是为了生存而行动，

and this is what lets me say so much about the em world.

这就是为什么我说了这么多 关于仿真脑世界的情况。

When creatures are rich, like you,

当生物富有时，就像你们一样，

you have to know a lot about what they want

你必须知道他们想要什么，

来弄清楚他们在做什么。

to figure out what they do.

When creatures are poor,

当生物贫穷时，

you know that they mostly do what it takes to survive.

你知道他们大部分的 行为都是为了生存。

So we've been talking about the em world from the point of view of the ems --

我们已经从仿真脑的角度 讨论了它们的世界——

现在，让我们回到现实中， 来窥视它们的整个世界。

now, let's step back and look at their whole world.

First, the em world grows much faster than ours,

首先，仿真脑社会的发展速度 比我们的快得多，

roughly a hundred times faster.

大概要快100倍。

So the amount of change we would experience in a century or two,

所以我们在一到两个世纪里 所经历的变化，

they would experience in a year or two.

它们会在一两年内体验到。

And I'm not really willing to project this age much beyond that,

我不太愿意把时代设计的太远，

因为很有可能会发生其他事情， 我不知道是什么。

because plausibly by then something else will happen, I don't know what.

Second, the typical emulation runs even faster,

第二，典型的仿真脑运行得更快，

roughly a thousand times human speed.

约是人类速度的一千倍。

So for them, they experience thousands of years in this year or two,

对它们来说，在这一两年内 经历了相当于我们数千年的生活，

and for them, the world around them is actually changing more slowly

他们周围的世界变化得

than your world seems to change for you.

比你的世界似乎更慢。

Third, ems are crammed together in a small number of very dense cities.

第三，仿真脑在少数 人口密集的城市里挤在一起。

This is not only how they see themselves in virtual reality,

这不仅仅是它们在 虚拟现实中如何看待自己，

it's also how they actually are physically crammed together.

也是它们实际上 是如何被挤在一起的。

So at em speeds, physical travel feels really painfully slow,

相比于仿真脑的运行速度， 其物理行进速度非常缓慢，

so most em cities are self-sufficient,

所以大多数仿真脑城市 都是自给自足的，

most war is cyber war,

大多数战争都是网络战争，

and most of the rest of the earth away from the em cities

地球上剩余的大部分 远离仿真脑城市的地方，

留给了人类， 因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。

is left to the humans, because the ems really aren't that interested in it.

Speaking of humans,

说到人类，

you were wanting to hear about that.

这是你们想知道的。

Humans must retire, at once, for good.

人类必须同时退休， 以保持良好的生活。

They just can't compete.

他们不再有竞争力了。

Now, humans start out owning all of the capital in this world.

现在，人类开始拥有 世界上所有的资本。

The economy grows very fast, their wealth grows very fast.

经济增长非常快， 他们的财富也增长很快。

Humans get rich, collectively.

人类会共同地致富。

As you may know, most humans today don't actually own that much

你们可能知道，现在大多数人类 并没有真正拥有什么东西，

besides their ability to work,

除了他们的工作能力，

so between now and then, they need to acquire sufficient assets,

因此，从现在到那时， 他们需要获得足够的资产，

insurance or sharing arrangements,

准备保险或分成协议，

or they may starve.

要不然他们可能会挨饿。

I highly recommend avoiding this outcome.

我强烈建议避免这种结果。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, you might wonder,

你们可能想知道，

why would ems let humans exist?

为什么仿真脑会让人类存在？

Why not kill them, take their stuff?

为什么不杀死并取代他们？

But notice we have many unproductive retirees around us today,

但是注意到今天我们身边有 很多没有效率的退休人员，

and we don't kill them and take their stuff.

而我们并不会杀死他们， 拿走他们的一切。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In part, that's because it would disrupt the institutions we share with them.

在某种程度上，这是因为这样 会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。

Other groups would wonder who's next,

其他群体就会想，谁会下一个遭殃？

so plausibly, ems may well let humans retire in peace during the age of em.

因此，在仿真脑时期，仿真脑 很有可能让人类和平地退休。

You should worry more that the age of em only lasts a year or two

你应该更加担心仿真脑的时代 只会持续一到两年，

而你却不知道接下来会发生什么。

and you don't know what happens next.

Ems are very much like humans,

仿真脑和人类很像，

but they are not like the typical human.

但它们不像典型的人类。

The typical em is a copy of the few hundred most productive humans.

典型的仿真脑是 几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。

So in fact, they are as elite, compared to the typical human,

所以事实上， 与一般人相比他们是精英，

as the typical billionaire, Nobel Prize winner,

是典型的亿万富翁， 诺贝尔奖得主，

Olympic gold medalist, head of state.

奥运金牌得主，国家元首。

Ems look on humans perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude,

仿真脑可能会带着 怀旧和感激之情看待人类，

but not so much respect,

但是没有多少尊重，

which is, if you think about it, how you think about your ancestors.

就像你仔细想想， 自己是怎么看待祖先的。

We know many things about how humans differ in terms of productivity.

我们知道许多关于 人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。

We can just use those to predict features of ems --

我们可以用这些来 预测仿真脑的特征——

例如，他们往往聪明，认真，勤奋，

for example, they tend to be smart, conscientious, hard-working,

married, religious, middle-aged.

已婚，有宗教信仰，中年。

These are features of ems.

这些是仿真脑的特点。

Em world also contains enormous variety.

仿真脑的世界 也有巨大的多样性。

Not only does it continue on with most of the kinds of variety that humans do,

它不仅延续了人类 大多数种类的多样性，

including variety of industry and profession,

包括行业与专业的多样性，

they also have many new kinds of variety,

他们也在很多新型特点上 体现了多样性，

and one of the most important is mind speed.

而其中最重要的是思维速度。

Ems can plausibly go from human speed

仿真脑几乎可以 从与人类的思考速度齐平，

up to a million times faster than human speed,

到比人类的速度快一百万倍，

and down to a billion times slower than human speed.

或是比人类的速度慢10亿倍。

Faster ems tend to have markers of high status.

更快的仿真脑往往具有较高的地位。

They embody more wealth. They win arguments.

它们体现了更多的财富， 在争论中具有优势。

They sit at premium locations.

它们位高权重。

Slower ems are mostly retirees,

较慢的仿真脑主要是退休人员，

and they are like the ghosts of our literature.

它们就像我们文学中的幽灵一样。

If you recall, ghosts are all around us --

如果你还记得， 鬼魂就在我们身边——

you can interact with them if you pay the price.

如果你能承受代价， 也可以和它们互动。

但是它们不懂什么， 也产生不了多少影响，

But they don't know much, they can't influence much,

and they're obsessed with the past, so what's the point?

但是对过去很着迷， 不过那有什么意义呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Ems also have more variety in the structure of their lives.

仿真脑的生活结构中 也有更多的多样性。

This is your life: you start and you end, really simple.

这就是你的生活： 从开始到结束，很简单。

This is the life of an em,

这是一个仿真脑的生活，

who every day splits off some short-term copies

每天都有一些短期的拷贝，

完成短期任务，然后结束。

to do short-term tasks and then end.

We'll talk more about those short term versions in a moment,

我们稍后会详细讨论 这些短期版本，

but they are much more efficient

但是它们的效率更高，

because they don't have to rest for the next day.

因为它们不需要在第二天休息。

这个仿真脑很会投机取巧。

This em is more opportunistic.

They make more copies of themselves when there's more demand for that.

当有更多需求时， 它们会进行更多次的自我复制。

They don't know which way the future's going.

它们并不知道未来的发展方向。

This is an em designer,

这是一个仿真脑设计师，

who conceives of a large system

它构想了一个大系统，

and then breaks recursively into copies who elaborate that,

然后再递归地分裂成拷贝 来详细说明它的构想，

so ems can implement larger, more coherent designs.

因此，仿真脑可以实现更大、 更连贯的设计。

This an emulation plumber

这是仿真脑世界里的一个水管工，

who remembers that every day, for the last 20 years,

它记得在过去的20年里的每一天，

they only ever worked two hours a day, a life of leisure.

它们每天只工作两小时， 是一种悠闲的生活。

But what really happened is, every day they had a thousand copies,

但实情是，他们每天 都有一千份拷贝，

each of whom did a two-hour plumbing job,

每个人都做了两小时的水管工工作，

and only one of them went on to the next day.

其中只有一个人 第二天接着工作。

客观地说，它们的 工作时间超过了99%。

Objectively, they're working well over 99 percent of the time.

不过主观上，他们还记得 一种悠闲的生活。

Subjectively, they remember a life of leisure.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This, again, is you. You start and you end.

同样是你，开始到结束。

This could be you if at the start of party,

这可能是你在派对开始的时候，

you took a drug that meant you would not remember that party

服用了一种药物， 意味着你在那天之后再也

ever after that day.

想不起那天的派对。

Some people do this, I'm told.

有人告诉我，他们会这么做。

Toward the end of the party,

在派对即将结束的时候，

will you say to yourself, "I'm about to die, this is terrible.

你是否会对自己说： “我快要死了，这太可怕了。

That person tomorrow isn't me, because they won't remember what I do."

明天的那个人不是我， 因为他们不记得我做了什么。”

Or you could say, "I will go on tomorrow. I just won't remember what I did."

或者你可以说，“明天，我还是我， 只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。”

This is an em who splits off a short-term copy

这是一个制造短期副本的仿真脑，

to do a short-term task and then end.

用来完成一项短期任务，然后结束。

They have the same two attitude possibilities.

它们有相同的两种态度。

They can say, "I'm a new short-term creature with a short life. I hate this."

它们可以说，“我是一个 生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。”

或者“我是一个更大的生物的一部分， 它只是不记得这个部分。”

Or "I'm a part of a larger creature who won't remember this part."

I predict they'll have that second attitude,

我预测它们会持第二种态度，

not because it's philosophically correct, but because it helps them get along.

不是因为它在哲学上是正确的， 而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。

Today, if the president says we must invade Iraq,

今天，如果总统说 我们必须入侵伊拉克，

and you say, "Why?"

你会说，“为什么？”

and they say, "State secret,"

接着他们说，“国家机密”。

you're not sure if you can trust them,

你不确定是否可以信任他们，

但是对于仿真脑来说，总统的拷贝 与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱，

but for ems, a copy of the president and a copy of you can go inside a safe,

explain all their secret reasons,

解释他们所有的秘密原因，

and then one bit comes out from your copy to yourself,

如果你被说服了，你的拷贝就会 发送给你的本体一条信息，

telling you if you were convinced.

告诉你：你被说服了。

So now you can know there is a good reason.

所以现在你知道有一个很好的理由。

I know you guys are all eager to evaluate this world.

我知道你们都渴望评价这个世界。

You're eager to decide if you love it or hate it.

你渴望决定你是否喜欢它， 或者讨厌它。

But think: your ancestors from thousands of years ago

但是想想你几千年前的祖先，

would have loved or hated your world

会根据他们听闻的最初的几件事，

based on the first few things they heard about it,

来选择爱或恨这个世界，

因为这个世界真的很奇怪。

because your world is really just weird.

So before judging a strange future world, you should really learn a lot about it,

所以在判断一个奇怪的 未来世界之前，你应该好好了解它，

也许读一本关于它的书，

maybe read a whole book about it,

and then, if you don't like it, work to change it.

然后，如果你不喜欢它， 那就努力工作去改变它。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）