5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström

翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Lipeng Chen

In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.

2015年，我们看到了人类两大奇妙、 充满希望的突破。

First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals,

首先是对“可持续发展目标”的采用，

the collective, universal plan for humanity

这是在全球环境目标范围内，

to eradicate hunger,

根除饥饿、

[promote] good economic development and good health,

促进经济增长和提升健康水平的

within global environmental targets.

人类普世计划。

Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,

第二，在经过21年的谈判后，

we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,

我们通过了具有法律约束力的 《巴黎协定》，

all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius,

旨在全球所有国家都将全球变暖 控制在2摄氏度以内，

aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

并以1.5摄氏度为目标。

Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.

如今，3年过去了， 我们仍在做鼓吹的表面功夫。

Now, I think it's time to step back one step

现在，我认为是时候后退一步，

and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed

并认识到世界领导人是否 真正知道他们三年前

at the General Assembly three years ago.

在联合国大会上签署的协定。

These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals

这些普世的，有抱负的， 具变革意义的目标

for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.

旨在稳定的地球系统上 实现一个包容且繁荣的全人类。

But there are underlying problems.

但也存在一些潜在问题。

We have inherent contradictions between these goals,

这些目标之间存在固有矛盾，

where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.

存在牺牲一些目标来 青睐其他目标的风险。

Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.

例如，目标8 有关体面工作和经济增长。

If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources

为了达到它，如果我们持续 开采自然资源

and burning fossil fuels,

和燃烧化石燃料，

it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.

就没可能达到目标13。

Three years down the line, we simply must admit

三年下来，我们必须承认

we're seeing limited action to really, really address this

在这个包容的、集体的和普世的

as an inclusive, collective, universal package.

一揽子计划上的成就所见甚少。

Now, this requires us to step back one step.

现在，需要我们后退一步。

I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:

我觉得我们得问自己一些 棘手的问题：

Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

我们有任何机会在2030年 完成“可持续发展目标”吗？

Are there actually inherent trade-offs

是否存在与当前发展模式

that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?

不兼容的固有权衡？

But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?

是否存在协同效应， 让我们可以真正加速变革？

And is it really a people-planet agenda,

真有一个“人类与地球”的议程，

really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals

在地球维生系统中

within the life-support systems on earth?

严肃对待这些有抱负的 社会和经济目标吗？

Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize

现在，全球人民开始认识到

that we're facing global rising environmental risks;

我们面临着全球不断增加的 环境风险；

in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite

事实上，一个稳定的行星

to have good human well-being on earth.

人类幸福的先决条件。

We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,

我们需要在稳定的地球系统上 定义一个安全的运行空间，

and the planetary boundary framework was introduced

2009年，科学界引入了

by the scientific community in 2009

地球界限

to do exactly that.

正是基于这个目的。

It has now been widely embraced across the world

它作为人类世的可持续发展框架

in policy, business and communities

已经被全球各地

as a framework for sustainable development

的政策，商业和社区

in the Anthropocene.

广泛接受。

This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes

这张幻灯片展示了这个框架， 其中有九个环境进程，

that regulate the stability of the earth system,

他们调节地球系统的稳定性

providing a safe operating space,

并提供一个安全的工作空间，

where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being

届时，我们将有很大机会 拥有良好的人类福祉，

and prosperity and equity.

繁荣和公平。

If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;

如果我们进入黄色区，我们就 进入了一个危险的不稳定区；

and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points

进入红色区， 我们很有可能越过临界点，

that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system

让我们不可逆转地失去地球系统

to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.

为人类提供社会和经济福利的能力。

Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries,

现在，我们今天可以 科学地量化这些边界，

providing us a stable earth system for humanity.

为我们人类提供稳定的地球系统。

But we have to go beyond this

但我们需要超越这点

and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals --

并认识到“可持续发展目标”——

if we really want to seriously accomplish them --

如果真的想要严肃地实现它们——

must now occur within this safe operating space.

现在必须在 这个安全的运行空间内进行。

We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.

我们必须在地球界限内 实现可持续发展目标。

But dear friends, not even this is enough.

但亲爱的朋友，这还不够。

We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals

我们需要认识到“可持续发展目标”

is 12 years away.

离达成预期只有十二年。

It's only a milestone.

这只是一个里程杯而已。

It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through

这是我们需要到达的靶心，

and zoom ourselves towards transformations

我们继续加快向变革前进，

where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth,

这样我们才可以在2050年及以后， 在稳定的地球系统中

nine billion plus,

为地球上的90亿公民

within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.

创造一个美好的未来。

This is a quest,

这是一个探索，

and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,

为了真正去探索 而不只是光说不练，

we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers

我们聚集了科学界 最好的思想者和建模家

and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model,

开始开发一套全新的 复杂系统动态模型，

the Earth-3 model,

地球-3模型，

building on models that have been around for the last 50 years.

基于在已经存在50年的模型。

And here it is.

就是这个。

This is a fantastic piece of work.

这真是一个了不起的工作。

This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;

它有气候模型，生物圈模型， 全球经济模型；

it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments.

它有算法，它就是一个神奇的成就。

This is what turns us scientists on.

这就是科学家为之高潮的东西。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?

我的意思是，这是一件漂亮的作品。

And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you,

我很乐意花整个晚上 带领大家了解它，

but I'll make you disappointed.

但我恐怕要让你们失望了。

I cannot do that.

我不能这样。

In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you

事实上，我现在可以做的 只是向你们保证

that this is the first time it's done.

这是前所未有的。

Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine

没人尝试过真正结合分析

the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.

“可持续发展目标”和地球界限。

And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends

我们能够找到趋同趋势，

that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project

让我们对自己有信心， 相信我们有能力预测

economic development,

经济发展，

resources use from water, food and energy,

水资源，食物和能源资源的使用，

population growth, income per person,

人口增长和人均收入，

yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.

并仍保持一致性和系统性。

So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity

所以，首次我们有了一个机遇

to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.

去真正探索在地球界限内 取得可持续发展的未来。

Now, how do we do this?

那么，我们如何做到这点？

Well, look at this.

看看这个。

Here, you have the data coming from the real world,

这里有来自真实世界

calibrated from 1970-2015:

1970-2015年的校准数据：

100,000 data points around the world,

全球10万个数据点，

building on seven regions' ability,

发现7个区域有能力

of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals.

处理所有可持续发展目标。

Now, one example of how we calibrated this,

现在，举个我们如何校准的例子，

here you have [data] for Sustainable Development Goals

这里有消除贫困、健康、教育和粮食

on eradicating poverty, health, education and food.

可持续发展目标的数据。

And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world,

这里的气泡图是世界的七个区域，

how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations

这些是至2015年的走势， 基于我们对

in relation to GDP per capita,

人均GDP的观察，

giving these universal convergent trends,

给出了这些普遍的收敛趋势，

which enabled us to create regressions

我们可以由此创造回归模型

that could make us able to do simulations into the future,

使我们能够对未来进行模拟，

all the way until 2050,

直到2050年，

showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.

展示了实现可持续发展目标的能力。

Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios,

现在，这让我们可以去 模拟几个场景，

testing different possible futures:

测试不同可能的未来：

business as usual, global transformations,

一切如常，全球变革，

investment schemes in business, different governance options,

商业的投资计划， 不同的治理选择，

policies, finance --

政策，金融——

really, to explore what the future can look like

真正地去探索未知的未来

in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs.

当我们拥有在地球界限内 可持续发展的能力。

And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us.

结果，我可以告诉你们， 十分惊人。

And this will be the first time it's shown.

这将是它第一次被展示。

It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.

它甚至不应该在这个房间外被引用。

Now, it actually is presented along two axes.

它其实是以两个坐标轴而展示的。

The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries.

Y轴展示我们保持在地球界限内的能力。

The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space.

越高，我们离安全运行空间越近。

On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals;

X轴是可持续发展目标；

the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill.

越向右代表 我们满足更多可持续发展目标。

We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner,

我们都想要待在右上角，

the safe and just world for the future.

那是一个在未来的 安全公正的世界。

Now, the point you see there is 1980.

现在，你看到的点是1980年。

We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space

那个时候我们处在 一个安全运行的空间，

but not meeting so many of the SDGs.

但没能实现太多的可持续发展目标。

Here's the trend up until 2015.

这是2015年之前的趋势。

So this is the conventional world,

这是传统世界，

which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs,

它实现了越来越多的 可持续发展目标，

lifting millions of people out of poverty,

让成千上万的人脱离了贫穷，

but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.

但是以牺牲地球的安全运行空间 为代价。

Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future.

这是一切如常的未来情景。

If we just move on as today,

如果我们继续像今天一样，

we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs,

我们能够实现一些可持续发展目标，

but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system.

但我们将会牺牲地球系统的稳定。

Now, what if we go faster on economic growth

现在，如果我们加快经济的增长

and really ally on one percent increase per year of income

并让每年的收入都有1%的增长，

and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050?

并在2050年让世界经济翻三倍 会怎样？

That would give us the following trajectory.

这就得到了下面的轨迹。

We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments,

我们可以再完成一些 可持续发展目标，

but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet.

但仍然以破坏地球的稳定为代价。

But what if we really go harder?

但如果我们真的更加努力呢？

What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent

如果我们实现诺言的能力提高30%,

across all sectors in society,

社会各处都能兑现

from climate to our trade agreements?

那些气候或贸易协议？

A harder scenario would take us a little bit better,

更努力的场景会让我们好一点，

but still, we're failing on the SDGs,

但仍然我们会失去一些 可持续发展目标，

and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.

而且也没能为人类实现一个 安全的运行空间。

So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion,

所以这让我们得出了一个 非常令人失望的结论，

that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs

即使选择未来不变， 我们也会在可持续发展目标上失败，

and transgress planetary boundaries.

并超过地球界限。

We need some radical thinking.

我们需要一些激进的想法。

We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future,

我们需要进入一个变革的、 颠覆性的未来，

where we start thinking outside of the box.

我们要开始跳出思维定势。

The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify

模型，参与和对话让我们能够找到

five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.

五个可以把达成目标的变革政策。

The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade

第一个是朝《巴黎协议》努力，

along the scientific pathway to Paris,

每十年减排一半，

doubling investments in renewable energy,

翻倍对可再生能源的投入，

creating a global energy democracy,

建立全球能源民主，

allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.

让我们能实现几个可持续发展目标。

The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems,

第二个是向可持续食物系统的 快速转变，

investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification

每年投资1%用于可持续集约化

and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions

并真正朝着实施与投资

that we already have available today.

已有的解决方案迈进。

The third is really to shift our development paradigm

这三个是改变我们的发展策略

and learn from many of the developing countries

并向很多进展迅猛的

that have moved very fast.

发展中国家学习。

What if we could have an economic growth such as in China,

如果我们有像中国那样的经济增长会怎样，

while doing it within the environmental parameters

同时这在生态文明

of an ecological civilization?

的环境下进行？

Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.

第四，重新分配财富。

What if we could [agree] that the richest 10 percent

如果我们能够同意最富的10%

could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum,

不让自己积累财富的最大值 超过40%的

of national incomes --

国家收入——

a drastic redistribution of wealth,

大规模的财富再分配，

reforming the ability of equity across regions?

改革各地间的平等能力，会如何？

And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health,

还有最后，第五点，增加 更多投入到教育，健康，

access to work, contraception,

就业机会，节育，

investing largely in women across the world,

加大对全球女性的投资，

allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality,

让我们可以实现性别，不平等，经济

economics and urban development.

和城市发展这些可持续发展目标。

Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five --

现在，如果我们在所有这 五个目标上推动我们——

we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey

我们试验了这个， 它会给我们一段惊奇的

towards the safe and just operating space on earth.

超着安全和公正的地球运行空间 前进的旅程。

It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based,

它告诉我们 即便使用保守的，基于经验的

complex system dynamics model,

复杂系统动力模型，

we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations

现阶段我们仍可以想象得到

over the next 12 years and beyond

未来12年和更久之后的变革，

that can take us up into the safe operating space

可以带我们进入安全运行空间

and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals.

并实现有抱负的社会和经济目标。

This is actually quite uplifting,

这非常令人振奋，

despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.

尽管事实上我们还没有 沿着这个轨迹前进。

So, in summary:

所以，总而言之：

we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs,

我们现在，可持续发展目标 的实施已经进行了三年，

must draw a line

我们必须画一条线，

and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises,

得出的结论是 我们并没有实现我们的承诺，

and not only that, we're running the risks

而且不仅如此，我们还在冒着

of future generations having an even tougher ability,

让后代更加艰难的风险，

because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points.

因为我们有可能把地球界限 推向临界点。

In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth,

事实上，我们正面临 温室地球的风险，

where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities

我们逐渐瓦解并制造 地缘政治的不稳定性，

that could actually make life even more tough

这会让地球上几十亿人

for billions of people on earth.

的生活更加艰难。

This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.

这些，老实说，真是让我害怕。

But that's also why I'm standing here tonight,

但这也是为什么我今晚站在这里，

because the window of success is still open.

因为成功的窗口仍然打开着。

The earth system is still resilient.

地球系统仍然具有弹性。

She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions

她仍能为我们提供 生态系统的服务和功能，

that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space.

可以让我们转型至安全运行空间。

But we need radically different thinking.

但我们需要从根本改变思考方式。

We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call

我们需要把这视作 可怖的警钟，

but also an opportunity for transformative change,

但也是一个变革的机会，

where we shift gears

在这我们可以换挡

and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda

并开始思考在地球安全运行空间中 将可持续发展目标

within a safe operating space on earth.

视为一项变革议程。

In other words, we can build a safe and just world.

换句话说，我们可以构建 一个安全和公正的世界。

We just have to really, really get on with it.

但我们得真正，真正开始行动。

And let's do it. Thank you.

让我们去做吧，谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）